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The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for Sustainable and Inclusive Natural Resource Management (2009–19) © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org ATTRIBUTION Please cite the report as: World Bank. 2021. The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus: An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for Sustainable and Inclusive Natural Resource Management (2009–19). Independent Evaluation Group. Washington, DC: World Bank. COVER PHOTO DAWNING/ Nick Parisse EDITING AND PRODUCTION Amanda O’Brien GRAPHIC DESIGN Luísa Ulhoa This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The bound- aries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissem- ination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for Sustainable and Inclusive Natural Resource Management (2009–19) April 19, 2021 Contents Abbreviations v Acknowledgments vi Overview viii Management Response xvi Management Action Record xxi Report to the Board from the Committee on Development Effectiveness xxiv 1. Background, Context, and Approach �������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 Evaluation Aims and Methods 4 2. Doing the Right Things in the Right Places to Address Natural Resource Degradation and Human Vulnerability ������������������������������������ 6 Overall Analysis 10 Soil and Land Resources 14 Forest Resources 16 Groundwater Resources 19 Small-Scale Fisheries Resources 21 3. Effectiveness of Activities Addressing Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability ������������������������������������������������������������� 24 Sustainable Land Management 28 Sustainable Groundwater Management 34 Sustainable Small-Scale Fisheries Management 36 4. Explanatory Factors of Effectiveness in Achieving Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction Outcomes ���������������������������������������� 42 Natural Resource Management Practices 46 Resource Governance Arrangements 53 Financial Incentives 58 ii 5. Conclusions and Recommendations ������������������������������������������������������������������� 65 Recommendations 67 Bibliography ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 69 Boxes Box 3.1. The Shandong Ecological Afforestation Project in China (2010–17) 29 Box 3.2. The Productive Safety Nets Program in Ethiopia 31 Box 3.3. Control of Illegal Groundwater Extraction in Jordan 35 Box 4.1. Results of Area Closures in Niger 50 Box 4.2. Results of Area Closures in Northern China 51 Box 4.3. Participatory Groundwater Management in India 57 Box 4.4. The Humbo Biocarbon Project in Ethiopia 60 Figures and Maps Figure 1.1. Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus 2 Figure 2.1. Natural Resource Degradation Issues in SCDs, CPFs, and Lending in Nexus Countries 10 Figure 2.2. Coverage of Resource-Related Vulnerability versus Resource-Related Degradation in SCDs and CPFs in Nexus Countries 12 Figure 2.3. Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability in SCDs and CPFs in Nexus Countries 13 Map 2.1. Coherence among SCDs, CPFs, and Lending for Soil and Land Degradation in Nexus Countries 15 Map 2.2. Coherence among SCDs, CPFs, and Lending for Forest Resources in Landscapes in Nexus Countries 18 Map 2.3. Coherence among SCDs, CPFs, and Lending for Groundwater Depletion in Nexus Countries 20 Map 2.4. Coherence among SCDs, CPFs, and Lending for Small-Scale Fisheries in Nexus Countries 22 Map 4.1. The Greening of the Sahel (1981–2014) 53 iii Tables Table 2.1. Identification of Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus Countries 8 Table 3.1. Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Portfolio, by Global Practice and Aggregate Performance Ratings 27 Table 3.2. Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Portfolio, by Region (Number of projects) 27 Table 4.1. Representativeness of Typical Cases in the Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Portfolio 44 Table 4.2. The Relative Land Restoration Impacts of Sustainable Land Management Interventions in Ethiopia (Percent increase over controls) 48 Table 4.3. Independent Evaluation Group Ratings of Impacts on Land Restoration in Ethiopia’s Sustainable Land Management Project Microwatersheds 49 Appendixes Appendix A. Methods 82 Appendix B. Case Analysis Summaries 117 Appendix C. Evaluation Portfolio 160 Appendix D. List of Persons Consulted 185 iv Abbreviations ASA advisory services and analytics CPF Country Partnership Framework IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IEG Independent Evaluation Group NRDV natural resource degradation and vulnerability PES payments for environmental services SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SLM sustainable land management SLMP Sustainable Land Management Project All dollar amounts are US dollars unless otherwise indicated. World Bank Group World Independent Evaluation Group Evaluation Independent v Acknowledgments This report was prepared by an Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) team co-led by Lauren Kelly and Bekele A. Shiferaw and comprising Harsh Anuj, Joy Kaarina Butscher, Alexandra Chris tina Horst, Doruk Yarin Kiroglu, Chika- ko Miwa, and Mees Daniel van der Werf. Jozef Leonardus Vaessen and Estelle Rosine Raimondo provided valuable methodological contributions. Romayne D. Pereira and Vibhuti Narang Khanna provided excellent program assistant support, and Aarre Laakso provided structural editing. All names of team members are included in alphabetical order. The evaluation was conducted under the guidance and supervision of Mari- alisa Motta, manager; José Cándido Carbajo Martinez, director; and Alison M. Evans, Director-General, Evaluation. This evaluation commissioned several expert background papers, includ- ing “Review of World Bank Ecological Management/Restoration Projects in Support of the Great Green Wall Initiative,” which was conducted by Mat- thew Turner, professor of geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, with a team of researcher associates including Tanya Carney, Laura Lawler, Jules Acknowledgments Reynolds, and Molly Teague. A background paper on small-scale fisheries was produced in collaboration with Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions by a team that included John Virdin, di- rector of the Ocean and Coastal Policy Program; Xavier Basurto, associate professor of sustainability science; and Colyer Woolston, research associate. Maria Fernández-Giménez, professor of rangeland ecology and management, Colorado State University, provided an evidence compendium, “Key Issues Affecting Rangeland Health, Herder Livelihoods and Well-Being in Rural Mongolia and Evidence of Successful Development Interventions.” A struc- tured literature review on sustainable land management was conducted by Randall Bluffstone, director of the Institute for Economics and the Environ- ment, Portland State University, and Laura Costadone, research associate. The structured literature reviews on groundwater and small-scale fisheries The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus Nexus Vulnerability and Degradation Resource The Natural were done by Siwa Msangi, IEG consultant. vi IEG thanks the many World Bank country office staff and client government staff who helped facilitate the conduct of the case studies. The case analysis of the Cerrado, Brazil, was led by Lauren Kelly and John Redwood III, senior IEG consultant, with support from Donald Sawyer, senior IEG consultant, and Mariana Branco, extended-term consultant. Bekele A. Shiferaw led the work on the Ethiopia case study with Ebru Karamete, evaluation analyst, with support from local consultants Asmare Wubet, Daniel Jaleta, Gebre- kidan Worku, Girma Berhe, Menasbo Gebru, and Selamawit Damtew. The Mongolian case analysis was led by Joy Kaarina Butscher with support from IEG consultants Mees Daniel van der Werf, Batbuyan Batjav, and Tungalag Ulambayar. The Niger case study was conducted by Lauren Kelly and Joy Kaa- rina Butscher, with support from Leif Brottem, assistant professor, Grinnell College, and Adamou Kalilou Amadou, Manzo Rio-Rio Aminou, Omar Mou- mouni, and Oumou Moumouni, consultants; Raul Roman, executive director, Dawning; Rafe H. Andrews, assistant director, Dawning; Nick Parisse, direc- tor of photography, Dawning; and Christian Freymeyer, researcher. Bekele A. Shiferaw led the work on groundwater in India, with Mr. V. Ratna Reddy, director of the Livelihoods and Natural Resource Management
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