Towards Sustainable Development RESEARCH SERIES No. 129

Assessment of the Effect of the EAC v Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Isaac M.B. Shinyekwa, October 2016 Miriam Katunze

RESEARCH SERIES No. 129

Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Isaac M.B. Shinyekwa Miriam Katunze

October 2016 Copyright © Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC)

The Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) is an autonomous not-for-profit organization established in 1993 with a mission to foster sustainable growth and development in Uganda through advancement of research –based knowledge and policy analysis. Since its inception, the EPRC has made significant contributions to national and regional policy formulation and implementation in the Republic of Uganda and throughout East Africa. The Centre has also contributed to national and international development processes through intellectual policy discourse and capacity strengthening for policy analysis, design and management. The EPRC envisions itself as a Centre of excellence that is capable of maintaining a competitive edge in providing national leadership in intellectual economic policy discourse, through timely research-based contribution to policy processes.

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Economic Policy Research Centre Plot 51, Pool Road, Makerere University Campus P.O. Box 7841, Kampala, Uganda Tel: +256-414-541023/4 Fax: +256-414-541022 Email: [email protected] Web: www.eprcug.org Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Abstract

The paper aims to establish whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products since 2005 has increased the regional capacity of the East African Community (EAC) to produce, reduced the importation of the same products from the rest of the world, increased intra-EAC trade, and/or improved welfare. This paper adopts two analytical approaches: a trends analysis of intra-EAC exports and the SMART WITS analytical framework. The results demonstrate a significant increase in intra-EAC export trade after 2005, although Partner States performance is not uniform, with Kenya dominating the other member states. Imports of the same products from outside the EAC region increased by an even larger factor. This increase implies that the demand for sensitive products exceeds the intra-EAC regional supply, resulting in a deficit that is met by imports from the rest of the world. Notwithstanding the growth in intra-EAC exports of the sensitive list products, there is a deficiency in the regional capacity to produce within the bloc. The total welfare effect is equivalent to US $3.1 billion; however, this amount is disproportionately distributed, with Kenya being the main beneficiary. It is recommended that the EAC review the CET sensitive products list considering the negative effects it is likely to have on manufacturing and on consumption welfare, that they design and formulate strategies to support the development of regional supply capacities to enhance the production of products in the sensitive list and that they develop a rational framework that is empirically based to determine which commodities should be included or excluded from the list.

Key words: Sensitive, Product, CET, Welfare, Trade, Revenue, Intra-EAC

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC i Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

TABLE OF Contents

Abstract i

Background 1 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Study objectives 2

ii literature Review 4

iii methodology and Data 5 3.1 Introduction 5 3.2 Analytical Approaches 6 3.2.1 SMART Model Derivation 6 3.2.2 Scenario definition and estimation 8 IV Findings 9

4.1 Introduction 9 4.2 Individual country intra-EAC export trade performance of products on the sensitive list. 9 4.3 Export and import trade performance of EAC sensitive products 10 4.3.1 Individual product performance 11 4.4 Impact of the implementation of the EAC sensitive products list 12 4.4.1 Welfare effects 12 4.4.2 Revenue effects 13 4.4.3 Trade Creation Effects 14 4.4.4 Trade diversion effects 15

v conclusion and policy implications 16

References 18 APPENDIX 19 EPRC RESEARCH SERIES 50

ii Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Background Since the sensitive products could not be protected by the maximum rate and therefore required special policy measures, it was agreed that the items would 1.0 Introduction attract rates of over 25 percent and, in some cases, a The treaty for the establishment of the East African mixture of specific duty and ad valorem rates. Community (EAC) provides in Article 75 for the establishment of the EAC Customs Union (CU). In turn, Table 1 presents the details of the pre-CU tariff rates the CU, which was established under the CU Protocol, for the EAC Partner States and the rates adopted for in 2005 provided for the implementation of the the sensitive list. The most liberalised partner state Common External Tariff (CET), among other measures was Uganda, with rates ranging from 7 to 15 percent; intended to develop some sectors of the regional it was followed by Rwanda, with rates of 5 percent economy. The EAC CU implementation commenced to 25 percent. Tanzania, on average, had rates of 25 in 2005 with a CET among the first three partners – percent. Burundi had rates in the 40 percent range, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania – and was joined by and in Kenya, which was the least liberalised, most of Rwanda and Burundi in 2007. The CET is structured the rates were between 35 and 100 percent. Following in three bands, with zero percent for raw materials, the adoption of the sensitive product list, the rates capital goods, agricultural inputs, certain medicines increased significantly, most of them ranging from and certain medical equipment. The rationale behind 50 to 100 percent. This implies that at the extremes, this tariff structure was to enable local manufacturers Uganda gained more protection than Kenya, which to build capacity to produce locally within the regional had prior higher protective rates for the sensitive list bloc. In this respect, the zero rate was for capital among the Partner States. goods, the 10 per cent bands were established for raw materials and intermediate goods and other essential Although research on the effects of the CET on the inputs needed in production, and the 25 percent EAC partners is available, analysis and discussion of band was established for finished products to reduce the effects of the sensitive list of products is glaringly imports and support local producers. The total tariff absent from the literature. Sangeeta et al. (2009) and lines are 5395 at Harmonised System (HS) digit level Othieno and Shinyekwa (2011) analyse the principle 8. The distribution of the CET band rates are as follows: of asymmetry adopted by the EAC. They estimate the zero per cent rate accounts for 2,003 tariff lines (37 effect of the EAC CU on trade, revenue and welfare and percent), 10 percent accounts for 1,152 tariff lines demonstrate the resulting sectoral impact. However, (21.4 percent), 25 percent band accounts for 2,176 they do not analyse the implications of the sensitive tariff lines (40.3 percent) and greater than 25 percent list generated by the EAC on the economies of the tariff rates for products that are treated as sensitive respective countries. McIntyre (2005) analyses the items, accounting for 64 tariff lines (1.2 per cent). This potential trade impact of the EAC CU and establishes paper is intended to analyse the impact of the sensitive that it is beneficial to Kenya’s trade; however, the list since this list was created with the intention to remaining Partner States and the list of sensitive boost local sectors that produce these products. products are not considered. Mugisa et al. (2009) evaluate the implementation and impact of the EAC The EAC Partner States identified a list of sensitive CU in general without specifically examining the list of products with the potential for domestic production sensitive products. Stahl (2005) analyses the impact and cross-border trade. The importation of such of the EAC CU in general, touching on the impact of products from outside the community could negatively the CET and non-tariff barriers on intra-EAC trade and affect domestic production and the development of welfare gains, and concludes that benefits are not regional capacity to produce. As such, these products evenly distributed within the EAC. The study closest were given additional protection over and above the to the current one was undertaken by the Ministry of maximum 25 percent duty. At the commencement of East African Affairs (2014) and assesses the EAC CET the CU, the Partner States agreed on the classification list of sensitive products. The findings are illuminating of sensitive products and the applicable rates of duty. but lack detail concerning the EAC individual Partner

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 1 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

States trade analysis, and other areas such as revenue revenue impact of the CET sensitive list structure on and welfare effects are omitted. the population.

Implementation of the new tariff has many significant The remainder of the paper is organised as follows. implications. First, the EAC citizens would have to pay Section II reviews the literature, highlighting key factors more for the same products imported from outside the that influence the generation of sensitive lists. Section economy, a fact that has welfare implications. Since III details the methods and the conceptual framework the rates are higher, the Partner States would generate used. Section IV presents and discusses the findings. increased revenue from the sensitive list of products Section V concludes the study and discusses the policy provided there is continued importation from outside implications of the findings. the EAC region. Intra-EAC trade in these products would tend to increase since the Partner States would increase their output and supply. However, this would depend entirely on whether the Partner States economies address supply-side constraints and put in place appropriate mechanisms and strategies to expand production. Therefore, generating a sensitive list is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to build the capacity to produce these products regionally. It is possible that the high CET rate on essential consumer products and on inputs such as cement, clinkers, hard wheat and sugar for industrial use has affected consumer welfare and raised the cost of manufacturing. Although the region would achieve self-sufficiency in the production of these commodities following effective protection, welfare would initially decline owing to the higher tariffs. The relevant questions are: (i) To what extent has the EAC CET on sensitive products generated effective protection of domestic industries? (ii) Has the policy increased the supply capacity to produce most of the products in the CET sensitive list? (iii) What are the trade, and revenue welfare implications? 1.1 study objectives The study seeks to establish whether the protection given to the items on the sensitive list has realised its objective of building regional capacity to produce, reducing the importation of the same products from outside the bloc, increasing intra-EAC trade in the same products and improving welfare. Specifically, the study seeks to establish the extent to which the EAC CET has generated effective protection of domestic industries, to determine whether the CET has increased the supply capacities to produce most of the products in the CET sensitive list, to assess whether the EAC region has increased intra-regional trade in the sensitive list items and to analyse the welfare and

2 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 60 60 60 60 60 50 60 60 50 60 60 50 50 60 60 35 35 35 60 60 60 60 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 40 75 75 75 75 100 100 100 100 100 E A C CU CET rate 7 7 7 7 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 CU U ganda Pre- 60 60 60 60 60 60 35 25 25 25 35 35 35 35 25 25 35 35 25 35 35 35 35 25 30 30 30 25 15 100 100 100 CU K enya Pre- 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 CU R wanda Pre- 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 12 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 15 15 10 CU B urundi Pre- 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 15 15 15 15 15 10 anzania CU T Pre- T able 1: S ensitive products tariff lines before and after implementation of the E A C ustoms U nions Protocol ( CET , % p.a.) Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven Worn clothing and other worn articles Worn Wheat nes and meslin Wheat or meslin flour Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, nes Matches Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Portland cement nes Portland Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring or colouring matter cane or beet sugar, Refined Maize (corn) nes Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter sugar,in Refined Raw sugar, beet sugar, Raw Butter milk,curdled milk & cream,kephir & ferm or acid milk cream nes Butter milk,curdled milk & cream,kephir Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) (brown) Rice, husked Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Milk and cream nes sweetened Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Product Product Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Raw sugar, cane sugar, Raw Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Primary cells & primary batteries nes Primary Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Lithium primary cells and batteries Smokg tobacco,whether or not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Others Cigarettes containing tobacco Others Others Corks, crown, of base metal Others Others Others Yogurt concentratd or not,sweetend not,flavourd o contg fruit cocoa Yogurt Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Air-zinc Juggery Juggery Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Table Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Toilet 2003 4029990 4031000 4039000 4029190 4029910 4022990 4029110 4022190 4022910 4011000 4012000 4013000 4021000 4022110 52085210 52095110 52115110 52122510 63023100 63025100 52085110 63022100 55134110 55144110 36050000 63029100 17019990 24022010 24022090 24031000 63051000 25232900 17019910 63090000 17019100 17011210 17011290 10019090 10059000 10061000 10062000 10063000 10064000 11010000 17011110 83091000 17011190 85061000 85063000 85064000 85065000 85066000 85068000

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ii literature Review 1997). Indeed, Viner (1950) asserts that if trade diversion exceeds trade creation, the implication for During the second half of the last century, the economy is a welfare reduction. The reverse is true multilateralism was pursued through multilateral for a welfare increase. The CU entails very exceptional trade negotiations based on the most-favoured- circumstances that call for the formulation of a 1 nation principle underlying the General Agreement on sensitive list of goods. Tariffs and Trade and its successor, the World Trade Organization (De Rosa 1998). It was considered the The issue of sensitive products in RECs is very critical most appropriate path to achieving the “first-best” because it defines the interests of the Partner States as outcome of world economic integration. However, they cede their trade policy. Given its significance, the beginning in the late-1980s and due to frustrations process of developing such a list should be systematic growing out of the stalled Uruguay Round negotiations and must be guided by common quantitative analytical concluded in 1994, regionalism has gained centre approaches rather than based on varied subjective stage for achieving world economic integration. It is assumptions. The existing literature examines some argued that Regional Economic Communities (RECs) of the criteria that can guide this process and gives can form building blocks to achieving world economic empirical examples of how this has worked in some integration. However, from an international political instances. It is common practice for member countries economy perspective, RECs offer potential competition to adopt a variety of criteria to prepare their sensitive if not conflict with multilateralism as a means of lists; these criteria may, according to (Mudungwe, achieving wider trade liberalisation in the world 2010), include contribution to employment, contribution economy. The foundation for RECs was first analysed to GDP, value-added export earnings, outputs/inputs by Viner (1950) in a seminal paper that concluded for differentiated tariff treatment, stage of sector that regional integration arrangements (CU) might be development/infant industry, and current level of predominantly trade-diverting and therefore welfare- support given to the sector (incentives). However, reducing. Since then, the debate has been inconclusive. it has been observed that during the process of stakeholder consultation, sectors with strong domestic A CU is a trade agreement under which specific lobbies seeking protection are often included in the list. countries are allowed to preferentially grant tariff-free In such instances, ultimately the country loses welfare, access to each other’s imports and under which they and with limited productive capacities there is more to agree to apply a CET to imports from the rest of the lose than to gain. world. CUs suppose common industrial policies and a high degree of political convergence and trust, i.e., In trade policy analysis, products are considered a CU is often regarded as a precursor to high political to be sensitive if an internally or externally induced convergence (Andriamananjara, 2011; Kieck & Maur, trade liberalisation process would directly or indirectly 2010; and Bonga, 2014). Primarily, the creation of negatively impact the production or trade of the said a CU increases trade flow between member states commodities (Mudungwe, 2010). Consequently, and tends to decrease trade with the rest of the sensitivity of products implies that the production, world (Andriamananjara, 2011; Bonga, 2014). The consumption, and revenue-earning capacity of such increased trade flow that occurs due to the removal commodities are vulnerable to trade policy shock. of intra-union tariff barriers is often referred to as The trade liberalisation process may lead to a rapid trade creation. This also means that highly efficient increase in imports that in turn outcompete locally suppliers within the CU replace domestic suppliers of produced commodities, leading to a decline in the a particular commodity. On the other hand, because production of the given sector and retrenchment of of discriminatory liberalisation, trade diversion means workers. In such a situation, the affected sector is that less efficient suppliers in partner states displace sensitive. When it does not isolate the main revenue- highly efficient suppliers in the rest of the world generating commodity lines, a liberalisation process (Andriamananjara, 2011). may lead to a steep decline in trade revenue. The decline in revenue may have a negative impact on It is widely accepted that CUs should be formed on 1 A “sensitive list of products” in this context refers to application of tariffs over the basis that they impact global welfare (Srinivason, and above the CET set by the REC and, in the case of the EAC, above 25 percent.

4 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue the ability of a government to discharge its functions The trade potential between Nepal and at least one because it will be constrained financially. Although South Asian country was positive for all three years. there is a general consensus on this, the challenge concerns the practical selection of products that end Grossman and Helpman (1994) took particular interest up on a list of products. in the benefits politicians derive from protection of particular sectors, especially if they have political In the literature, a list of sensitive products is very influence. This argument does not often take into important in defending national, social and economic consideration the costs to consumers and taxpayers interests. However, there is lack of a systematic and government loss of foregone consumer tax revenue. process to guide common quantitative analytical Some criteria have been suggested by Mudungwe approaches; instead, decisions are based on varied (2010); they include an array of indicators that cover subjective assumptions, yielding a long list of most of the key facets of economics: production, fiscal sensitive products without sound empirical evidence factors, food security, trade, supply chain interlinkages (Mudungwe, 2010). This is partly explained by the lack and welfare aspects. of common approaches that are supported by minimum and maximum thresholds of acceptance or rejection. Studies conducted to measure the impact of adoption In the Southern African Development Community of a sensitive list and therefore an increase in the tariff (SADC), for example, considerable energy was devoted lines are limited and the existing few reveal varied to negotiations regarding the liberalisation of trade in results. Using partial equilibrium modelling, Kumar goods, especially on the rules of origin for sensitive and Ahmed (2014) established that there was a products (Kalenga, 2004:30-31). The implementation positive effect on consumer surplus and trade flows of the CET in the Economic Community of West African and a negative effect on tariff revenues. Furthermore, States (ECOWAS) was delayed beyond the initial the simulation results revealed that the aggregate total deadline of 2008 because Nigeria requested an extra trade effect was positive, with a surge in export of some 50 percent tariff band to protect its sensitive industries. products. Raihan Selim (2008) explored the impact of the sensitive list by India under the South Asian FTA The justification of inclusion of products as sensitive using a partial equilibrium model and established a during tariff liberalisation is traditionally based on substantial increase in exports within the region. The a range of arguments. Kharel (2010) developed analysis for Nepal revealed that there was more trade four criteria to shortlist tariff lines for inclusion and creation than trade diversion, intuitively more revenue exclusion from the sensitive list between Nepal and loss and limited welfare gains. the South Asian Free Trade Area. This approach used the value of the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index for three years. If the RCA was greater iii methodology and Data than one (RCA>1) in all three years for at least one South Asian country, it indicated that at least one South Asian country had a comparative advantage in 3.1 Introduction that tariff line and that reducing tariff on that product The paper adopts two analytical approaches. The first augured well for efficiency. In this way, the potential analysis uses the COMTRADE and TRAINS2 databases for trade diversion was also reduced. Secondly, the embedded in the trade map database to establish share of South Asia in Nepal’s imports was assumed the intra-EAC trade flows for the period 2006-2013 to be greater than 66 percent. This criterion was used for Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya and for the period to specifically guard against the possibility of trade 2008-2013 for Rwanda and Burundi. This part of the diversion when Nepal provides preferential treatment analysis seeks to establish whether the commodities to South Asian products. It was assumed that if the deemed sensitive have increased in volume in terms share of South Asia in Nepal’s imports was greater of intra-EAC exports and reduced imports from outside than 66 percent in all three years, the possibility of the EAC economies. The second part of the analysis trade diversion from removing the tariff line from the uses the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) using sensitive list would be reduced since South Asia is already a significant supplier, whatever the reasons. 2 COMTRADE is common format for Transient Data Exchange for power systems; TRAINS refers to the Trade Analysis Information System.

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 5 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

the SMART model analytical framework that conducts price. In SMART, the import demand elasticity varies Partial Equilibrium (PE) analysis to determine the at the HS-6 level and is based on a survey by Stern et welfare, trade and revenue effects. al. (1982) in “Price Elasticities in International Trade”. Another important assumption made by the model is 3.2 Analytical Approaches that of perfect competition, which, for example, means This section describes the analytical framework of that tariff cuts are fully reflected in the prices paid by the SMART model following Jammes and Olarreaga consumers. (2005). It is a partial equilibrium model built on the 3.2.1 smART Model Derivation core postulate of the Armington assumption, which assumes that imports from different countries are The derivation of the SMART model is based on work imperfect substitutes. PE implies that the analysis by Laird and Yeat (1986), who derived clearly the only considers the effects of a given policy action equation that can be used to estimate various trade in the given market(s) that is (are) directly affected. policy changes. The derivation begins with a basic Unlike Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) trade model composed of simplified import demand models, PE models do not account for the economic and export supply functions and an equilibrating interactions between the various markets in a given identity. economy (WITS Manual Version 2.01 2011). There is, on the contrary, focus on one importing market and A simple EAC’s ( ) import demand (M) function for its exporting partners. The PE model assesses the the commodity produced in the country outside impact of a tariff change scenario by estimating new the EAC (k = the rest of the world) is expressed in Eq. values for a set of variables. Despite the shortcomings (1) as of a PE framework, this model remains more suitable than the general equilibrium model because it allows (1) the utilisation of widely available trade data at the appropriate level of detail to capture the principle of where is the income of the EAC, is the price of the

special and differential treatment in the simulation commodity in EAC and is the price of the commodity analysis (Milner et al. 2002). In addition, PE models outside the EAC. have the advantage of working at a very fine level of detail. The SMART model can either be solved with The export (X) supply function for the perfectly elastic export supply, as when world prices of commodity can be simplified as shown in Eq. (2). each variety are given, or by assuming upward-sloping export supply curves. (2)

The SMART model incorporates three types of The equilibrium in the trade between the EAC and the elasticities. (i) Supply elasticities are deemed to rest of the world is the standard partial equilibrium be infinite (=99), which means that an increase equation expressed in Eq. (3). in demand for a given good will always be matched by the producers and exporters of that good without (3) any impact on the price of the good. This assumption is reasonably realistic when the importer (EAC) is In the EAC, the domestic price of the commodity a small market and the exporter (the rest of the from the rest of the world’s market will be equal to world) consists of large industrialised economies. the rest of the world’s export price plus transport (ii) Import substitution elasticities record the rate and insurance charges. This price would change by an of substitution between two goods with different amount equivalent to the ad valorem incidence of any origins. The Armington assumption is incorporated in tariff, as in Eq. (4). the SMART model, meaning that similar goods from different countries are imperfectly substitutable. In (4) SMART, the import substitution elasticity is considered to be 1.5 for each good. (iii) Import demand elasticity where is the price of a representative good in a measures the demand response to a shift in import representative importer country (EAC) and is the

6 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue tax. The export revenue earned by the can be simplified as expressed in Eq. (5). (11)

(5) It may be noted that, if the elasticity of export supply with respect to the world price is infinite, the denominator Trade Creation : The trade creation effect on the right-hand side of Eq. (11) becomes unity and can be defined as the increased demand in the EAC can be ignored. for the commodity from the rest of the world resulting from the price change associated with the Trade Diversion ( ): The term trade diversion transmission of price changes when the tariff lines on refers to the inclination of importers to substitute the commodity change. Therefore, from Eq. (1) to (5), goods from one source with goods from another source it is possible to write the formula for trade creation. in response to a change in the import price of supplies First, it is possible to derive the total differential of the from one source but not from the alternative source. domestic price with respect to tariffs and foreign price Thus, if prices fall in one overseas country, there will from Eq. (4). be a predisposition to purchase more goods from that country and less from countries whose exports are (6) unchanged in price. Trade diversion can also occur not because of a change in the export price as such but The simplified expression for the elasticity of import because of introduction or elimination of preferential demand with respect to the domestic price can be treatment for goods from one or more sources while rearranged as follows: treatment for goods from other sources remains unchanged (Laird and Yates, 1986). Without explicit (7) values for the elasticity of substitution, the formulation for trade diversion is expressed in Eq. (12), where is the elasticity of import demand with respect to the domestic price. (12)

Substituting Eqs. (4) and (6) into Eq. (7) yields Eq. (8): where represents the imports from non- preference-receiving countries and is the output in (8) the importing country.

From the illustration in Eq. (3), However, with explicit values for the elasticity of substitution, the alternative is expressed as in Eq. (13). (9)

The standard expression for the elasticity of export (13) supply with respect to the world price can be expressed as in Eq. (10). where is the elasticity of substitution with respect to the relative prices of the same product from different (10) sources. Whereas k denotes imports from one (group) of foreign supplier(s), K denotes imports from another Substituting Eq. (9) into (10) and the result into Eq. (group) of foreign supplier(s), and the summation is (8) produces an expression that can be employed to only across the country group k or K but not across compute the trade creation effect. From Eq. (3), this product groups (i) nor across imports (j). is equivalent to the rest of the world’s growth of export of the commodity to the country (EAC). The From this expression, it is then possible to express expression for trade creation is Eq. (11): the percentage change in the relative shares of the alternative suppliers in terms of the elasticity

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 7 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

of substitution, the percentage change in relative In other words, equation (17) can be written as prices and the original relative shares of imports from the alternative sources. By extensive expansion, substitution and rearrangement, it is possible to obtain (18) the expression for trade diversion (TD) gain or loss shown in equation (14). The term in equation (14) for Welfare Effect: The welfare effect arises from the relative price movement is specified in terms of the benefits consumers in the importing country derive movements of the tariffs or the ad valorem incidence from lower domestic prices after the removal or of non-tariff distortions for the two foreign sources. reduction of tariffs or the ad valorem incidence of non- tariff distortions. Thus, the net welfare gain is normally estimated as the increase in import value times the average ad valorem incidence of the tariff barrier before and after the tariffs’ elimination. This welfare gain can also be thought of as an increase in consumer surplus, as expressed in Eq. (19): 14 19 Total Trade Effect: The total trade effect is obtained by summing the trade creation and trade diversion The coefficient 0.5 captures the average ad valorem effects. The results can be summed for groups of incidence of the tariff barriers before and after their suppliers, either for individual products or across elimination/reduction. Eq. (19) assumes that the product groups. elasticity of the export supply is infinite. In the case in which the elasticity of export supply is less than Revenue Effect infinity, the supply price is higher than before. The new The quantification of the revenue effect in the WITS/ domestic price of imports does not decline to the full SMART model is simple. The tariff revenue is given as extent of the tariff change, and import expansion is the product of the tariff rate and the value of imports. less than in the case of infinitely elastic export supply. Eq. (14) has direct application in estimating the Welfare can still be computed using Eq. (19) but needs revenue effect for the importing country. Otherwise, to be interpreted as a combination of consumer surplus the percentage increase in revenue is equal to the and producer surplus. percentage increase in imports plus the percentage increase in prices. This can be shown by taking from 3.2.2 scenario definition and estimation Eq. (5) the total differential of revenue with respect to import price and the value of the resulting imports into The analysis provides for increase in tariffs during Eq. (15): the implementation of the sensitive list. Table 1 illustrates the change in the tariff lines following the 15 implementation of the CET of the EAC CU. For example, Tanzania increased the tariff rate for milk products Dividing the expression on the left-hand side (LHS) of from 25 to 60 percent, Burundi increased it from 40 to Eq. (15) with the LHS expression of Eq. (5) and the 60 percent, Rwanda increased it from 5 to 60 percent, right-hand side (RHS) of Eq. (15) with the RHS of Eq. Uganda increased it from 15 to 60 percent, and Kenya (5), we have maintained it at 60 percent. The analysis estimates the impact of the change in the tariff rates. Identifying the products for which the impact of tariff increase is (16) greatest may help the EAC Partner States define their most “sensitive products” as well as determine the Reducing Eq. (16) and substituting from Eq. (10) yields likely effect, which in turn would help policymakers Eq. (17). understand the mechanism through which the region can address the would-be effects. The sensitivity parameters analysed herein include: total trade (17) effect (creation, diversion), welfare and revenue. The

8 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue scenarios involve analysing the impact of the change in trade creation and trade diversion effects of the the tariff line from that of pre-CU to that which applies implementation of the sensitive list tariff lines on the during its implementation at each product level. EAC Partner States.

Whereas the trends in trade cover the 2001 to 2013 4.2 individual country intra-EAC export trade period, the partial equilibrium analysis begins in performance of products on the sensitive 2005, when the CET structure was implemented, and list. continues to 2013. Over the period of analysis, intra-EAC exports of sensitive products grew significantly, although IV Findings there was eventually a decline. The trade expanded from US $93 million in 2005 to 270 million in 2013 and thereafter declined to US $171 million in 2014. 4.1 Introduction Compared to the overall regional exports, the intra- EAC exports increased from a proportion of 7 percent The rationale for imposing higher CETs on sensitive in 2005 to 12 percent in 2012 and thereafter declined products by the EAC Partner States was to enable to 10 percent by 2014. These trends suggest growth the producers of the affected products to build local in nominal terms and proportions, although stagnation production capacity to be able to supply the same set in. The individual EAC partner state performance of products within the region. Therefore, the spirit behind intra-EAC export trade is not uniform across the states, the policy was protection of the affected industries with Kenya being the most dominant, followed by over time to enhance their competitiveness and their Uganda and Tanzania, and extremely poor performance ability to supply the EAC regional market. This move from Rwanda and Burundi (Figure 1). was intended to boost intra-EAC trade in pursuance of the integration treaty, whose objective is to spur Considering that Tanzania is quite a large economy development and betterment of the citizens. The compared to Uganda, its performance exhibited presentation and discussion of the results obtained a fluctuating trend and is relatively weak. It is in this study is divided into two sections. Section 4.2 understandable that the small economies of Rwanda present trends in exports, imports and trade balance and Burundi still have a long way to go to develop for the entire EAC region, with a disaggregation at the sufficient productive capacity to supply the Partner States with larger quantities of products and therefore country level illustrating partner state contributions high export value. to intra-EAC trade of the sensitive products. Section 4.3 presents and discusses the welfare, revenue,

Figure 1: Trends in intra-EAC export trade of sensitive products (US$ ‘000)

Data source: COMTRADE

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 9 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Notwithstanding the skewed observations, there is include wheat, cement, rice and maize. It is evident significant intra-EAC export trade, as demonstrated that the list for Tanzania is quite small; the details by the observed increases, especially after 2005 are provided in Table B3 of the Appendix. Rwanda’s when Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania entered into the main exports include rice, wheat, cigarettes, tobacco CU regional arrangement. There is even more growth products and cement, although the revenue generated in intra-EAC export trade after Rwanda and Burundi from them is quite small in comparison to that of the joined in 2008. This is a positive development other Partner States Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania illustrating that the EAC Partner States are steadily (details given in Table B4 of the Appendix). Burundi is increasing their intra-regional export trade of sensitive firmly at the bottom, with a very small list of products products. Note that whereas some of the Partner that together generate insignificant export revenues States are increasingly supplying products on the from the EAC Partner States, as illustrated in Table regional market, others are lagging behind, a state B1 in the Appendix. Its main products are cigarettes of affairs that should be addressed affirmatively to and tobacco products. The results show that several achieve balanced regional development. This is also products are produced in almost all the countries; a manifestation of the deficient production and supply these include cement, sugar, rice, cigarettes and capacities within the EAC region. tobacco products, milk and wheat.

Individual country analysis shows the products from the sensitive list that generate high export values 4.3 export and import trade performance of (intra-EAC exports), which may reveal comparative EAC sensitive products advantage in a crude way. Furthermore, the The trends in the intra-EAC exports suggest that performance also illustrates the extent to which the production of sensitive goods still exhibits lack of Partner States have to work to achieve the intended capacity within the bloc. Whereas EAC total exports of objective of the policy. Uganda’s main export to the sensitive products both in the EAC and to the rest of the region is cigarettes and tobacco products, followed by world increased from approximately US $300 million in sugar, milk products, cement and matches (details 2005 to US $780 million in 2013, imports of the same provided in Table B1 of the Appendix). Kenya, the main products from outside the EAC region increased from production partner state, exports cement, cigarettes US $700 million in 2005 to US $2.3 billion in 2011 and and tobacco, corks, crown and base metal products, declined slightly to US $1.7 billion in 2013, as shown milk products, wheat, manganese dioxide primary in Figure 2; details can be found in Tables A1 and A2 cells, batteries and matches (details given in Table B2 of the Appendix. of the Appendix). Tanzania’s main exports to the region Figure 2: Trade performance of sensitive products (US $ ‘000)

Data source: COMTRADE

10 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

It is illustrated that imports of the same products from from outside the region. Note that total EAC exports outside the EAC region still represent a significant (for all products) to both Partner States and the rest proportion. Notwithstanding the fact that intra-EAC of the world increased from US $6.2 billion in 2005 to exports of the sensitive products doubled during this US $14 billion in 2014, and imports increased from US period, just as imports from outside the EAC region $11 billion in 2005 to US $40 billion in 2011. These doubled, it is evident that intra-EAC exports are small statistics emphatically demonstrate that the sensitive in comparison. The trends in the trade balance of list is still a long way from generating sufficient trade sensitive products further demonstrate the production capacity to meet the needs of the region. deficiencies within the EAC region. The trade balance is negative, and it increased from US $482 million 4.3.1 individual product performance in 2005 to US $1.7 billion in 2011 and then declined Examining the individual product performance to US $947 million in 2013. Overall, the statistics further reveals that some products have significantly suggest that the demand for the products exceeds increased in regional trade, whereas others have the intra-EAC regional supply and that the deficit is declined or remained constant (Figure 3). Cement met by imports from the rest of the world. This has registered the highest increase in value terms, from welfare implications since what is imported attracts US $60 million in 2006 to US $225 million in 2013. high tariffs and artificially increases the local price Imports of the same product performed in a similar of the products. Therefore, the EAC region has yet to way, suggesting that the EAC region produces similar achieve the goal of building regional competitiveness quantities of cement as those imported in the region. to significantly reduce imports of the same products

Figure 3: Cumulative value of intra-EAC exports and imports of sensitive products from the rest of the world, 2008-2014 (US $ ‘000s)

Data source: COMTRADE

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 11 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Other products that experienced increased intra-EAC food security is key, especially where sugar, rice and trade include sugar, cigarettes and other tobacco wheat are concerned, there may be a need to revisit products, wheat, rice, milk, maize, and batteries. Poor the policy since welfare is reduced with high import performance is revealed among cotton and clothing duties and local capacities are not yet developed, products, which experienced significant declines in with consequent high prices and reduction in welfare. intra-EAC trade and registered significant growth in The EAC region is in the process of infrastructure imports. Other products in this category include air- development that depends significantly on cement. zinc primary cells and batteries, silver oxide primary Treating cement as a sensitive product with a 35 cells and batteries and mercury oxide primary cells percent tariff is not logical since this will add to the and batteries. Regional imports of some products cost of developing infrastructure, eventually reducing increased significantly, and they remained high EAC regional competitiveness. during the period of analysis irrespective of whether the overall intra-EAC trade increased. Rice remains a 4.4 impact of the implementation of the EAC major regional import commodity; it increased from US sensitive products list $52 million in 2006 to US $310 million in 2014. Wheat is similarly a major regional import. The other products 4.4.1 Welfare effects in this category include sugar, cigarettes, clothing, As illustrated in Figure 4, the total welfare effect for all primary cells, primary batteries, manganese dioxide the EAC Partner States is equivalent to US $3.1 billion, primary cells and batteries, and milk. an amount higher than the total trade effect (US $2.7 billion). The first two years of the implementation of If motivation for the generation of this list was to build the sensitive list, that is 2006 and 2007 when only internal capacity, then the protection has not generated Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda were the members of sufficient internal industrial or firm growth to expand the EAC, experienced overall negative welfare effects; production to match the region’s demand. This may which increased from US $6 million to US $20 million, require a review of the CET for that purpose. Given that largely borne by Kenya.

Figure 4: Welfare impact of the implementation of the EAC sensitive products list (US $ ‘000s)

Data source: World Bank SMART WITS

12 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Uganda and Tanzania started with positive welfare $2.7 billion; it was followed by maize, rice and plain- effects and maintained the trend throughout the weave polyester. It is observed that the same products period of analysis. Although the rest of the countries had negative welfare effects for most of the period of maintained positive welfare with the exception of analysis until 2013, which is rather out of the ordinary. Kenya and Burundi, the region realised positive The sectors/products that experienced welfare losses gains throughout the period. We note that Kenya, include refined sugar, corks, crowns of base metal, the largest economy in the region, was likely to face manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries, and such challenges because the country’s citizens cigarettes and tobacco products. The details are given are now purchasing these commodities at a higher in Table G1 of the Appendix. price than during the pre-implementation period. It is observed that the performance varies across the Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania did not experience any countries; Kenya made the most welfare gains (close welfare losses. Perhaps what needs to be emphasised to 85%), followed by Uganda (7.7 percent), Tanzania is that the overall welfare effect is positive and not (6.3 percent), Rwanda (1 percent) and Burundi (0.1 negative. Furthermore, the existing arrangement has percent). the potential to yield even higher welfare effects.

A quick look at products for which welfare gains 4.4.2 revenue effects were made at the level of individual countries With regard to revenue, the change is largely negative further suggests which sectors experienced gains except in the last two years, when positive revenues and perhaps losses. The sectors constitute either were realised. Note that this depends on the volumes the consumers or the producers of the products. imported vis-a-vis the EAC regional supply capacity. Burundi made welfare gains totalling US $5 million Figure 5 demonstrates a uniform trend of revenue from the following main products in order of gains: loss across all the countries with the exception of rice, cement, milk, sugar, corks and crowns of base Kenya in 2013. Before 2013, the entire EAC region metal. The country experienced welfare losses with experienced revenue losses amounting to US $349 regard to maize. The details are provided in Table C1 million, much of which is accounted for by Uganda and of the Appendix. Rwanda made welfare gains on many Tanzania. The positive Kenyan revenue gains in 2013 products totalling US $24 million, with the following of US $1.78 billion completely offset the losses, which products having the highest monetary values: sugar, again illustrates that the performance of the Kenyan wheat, rice, worn clothing, primary cells and batteries economy has significant implications for the rest and maize. The details are given in Table D1 of the of the EAC Partner States. In this case, aggregating Appendix. Uganda made welfare gains on a number of the revenue loss masks individual EAC partner state commodities totalling US $243 million; the following performance. It does emerge that as the EAC countries commodities had the highest monetary values: in part turn to regional suppliers after applying the high sugar, rice, matches, primary cells and batteries and sensitive list CET, foreign suppliers reduce the amount clothing. The details are presented in Table E1 of supplied, leading to a reduction in the generation of the Appendix. Tanzania made welfare gains totalling customs revenue in the region. US $195 million on a limited number of products. The products, starting with those with the highest monetary values, include sugar, wheat, rice, cement, cigarettes and tobacco products, worn clothing, maize, and milk. The details are presented in Table F1 of the Appendix. Kenya’s experience is rather a combination of extremes. Whereas this country made the most gains, it also had the longest list of welfare losses. Furthermore, one product of Kenya from the sensitive list, raw sugar, seems to have generated over 85 % of the EAC regional welfare gains, amounting to US

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 13 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Figure 5: Revenue impact of the implementation of the EAC sensitive products list (US $’000s)

Data source: World Bank SMART WITS

A detailed examination of the performance of the only to US $192 million. Note that, with the exception sensitive list products at the country level regarding of 2013, Kenya experienced revenue losses as well. revenue sheds additional light. Burundi experienced The product that accounts for most of this change is revenue losses of US $16 million and made gains in raw sugar, which throughout this period experienced one product, maize, to the tune of US $1 million. The revenue gains amounting to a total of US $1.85 billion. main products for which losses were experienced The products that experienced revenue losses include, include rice, cement, milk and sugar, among others. among others, maize, rice, cement, sacks and bags, The details are provided in Table C2 of the Appendix. bed linen and plain-weave polyester (details are Rwanda experienced revenue losses of US $95 million provided in Table G2 of the Appendix). and made gains in one product, raw sugar, of US $5 million. The products for which losses were made It is not surprising that with minimum gains in local include refined sugar, rice, worn clothing, primary cells sourcing of the sensitive list products, the EAC Partner and primary batteries, wheat, cement, matches and States are bound to experience losses in customs maize (details in Table D2 of the Appendix). Uganda revenue. Nevertheless, when the total trade created had an overall revenue loss of US $598 million, an and welfare dividends are considered, it is evident amount close to that of Tanzania, and largely never that the region makes more gains even when there experienced positive revenue gains. The main products are revenue losses. The Partner States increase their of Tanzania that had negative revenue impact, in order chances of collecting more revenue, such as value- of magnitude, were refined sugar, rice, primary cells added taxes, excise duties, corporate and income and primary batteries, plain-weave polyester, matches, taxes, when local suppliers increase their production maize and milk (details can be found in Table E2 of capacities and volumes. This seems not to be optimal the Appendix). Tanzania’ revenue loss amounted to at present since imports of the sensitive list products US $580 million, with the following main products/ are still very significant. sectors affected: refined sugar, worn clothing, wheat, rice, cement, milk, maize and matches. There were 4.4.3 trade Creation Effects negligible and insignificant revenue gains, suggesting Over the period of analysis, the EAC region made that overall Tanzania experienced revenue losses significant trade creation gains both individually and (details in Table F2 of the Appendix). Kenya made collectively. Figure 6 demonstrates that there was more revenue gains than losses, given that gains significant trade creation to the tune of US $2.7 billion amounted to US $1.58 billion and losses amounted compared to trade diversion to a tune of US $50

14 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue million (Table 2). Uganda emerged with the highest trade in the following products: sugar, milk and milk value of trade created, US $966 million, followed by products, rice, cigarettes containing tobacco, bed linen, Tanzania, with US $866 million, Kenya with US $651 maize, cement, plain-weave polyester and plain- million, Rwanda with US $168 million and Burundi weave cotton, and corks and crowns of base metal. with US $3 million. Overall, the growth steadily The details are given in Tables C4, D4, E4, F4 and G4 approached the highest level, which occurred in 2013. of the Appendix. This result vindicates the argument for the generation of the sensitive list of products since it shows that it 4.4.4 trade diversion effects has contributed to the creation of trade within the EAC The results suggest that there was insignificant and region. negligible trade diverted (Table 2). This partly explains the high welfare effect, given that diversion would At the individual partner state level, Burundi created have shifted consumers from low-cost producers the least trade, and this was mainly in milk and rice. outside the region to high-cost producers within the Rwanda, on the other hand, created trade in wheat, region. The only country that registered some trade maize, sugar, milk, rice, manganese dioxide primary diversion was Uganda, to a tune of US $50 million, and batteries, worn clothing, and cement, among others. this was in 2006 and only on the following products: Uganda created trade in sugar products, rice, cement, manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries, raw primary cells and primary batteries, manganese sugar, primary cells, primary batteries and matches. dioxide primary batteries, matches, wheat, milk and The remaining years did not register trade diversion. plain-weave polyester. Tanzania, similar to Uganda, Significant trade would have been diverted to the EAC experienced trade creation in a number of products region if a large proportion of the sensitive list products including sugar, milk and milk products, worn clothing, had experienced a shift in sourcing from the rest of the world to the EAC region. The results further suggest wheat, rice, cigarettes containing tobacco, maize, that the region has yet to significantly invest in its cement, plain-weave polyester, matches, and plain- supply of commodities that are on the sensitive list. weave cotton, among others. Finally, Kenya created

Figure 6: Trade creation impact of the implementation of the EAC sensitive products list (US $’000s)

Data source: World Bank SMART WITS

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 15 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Table 2: Trade diversion impact of the implementation of the EAC sensitive products list (US $’000s) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Kenya 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tanzania -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.05 Uganda 50,438 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50,438 Rwanda 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Burundi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EAC 50,438 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.01 50,438

Data source: World Bank SMART WITS

v conclusion and policy capacity and productivity. In this case, effective protection was not adequately achieved by the high implications tariffs imposed on the list of sensitive products.

This paper aims to establish whether the protection The fact that the total welfare effect for all the EAC given to the list of sensitive products since 2005 has Partner States is high and significant is a positive increased the regional capacity of the EAC to produce, development. The welfare gains are, however, reduced the importation of the same products from disproportionately distributed, with Kenya being the the rest of the world, increased intra-EAC trade, and main beneficiary (85 %), followed by Uganda (7.7 improved welfare. By protecting sensitive products, %), Tanzania (6.3%), Rwanda (1%) and Burundi (0.1 the region wanted to generate effective protection %). Notwithstanding the positive welfare effect, EAC for domestic industries and to increase the supply citizens pay more for the same products imported capacity for production of most of the products locally. from the rest of the world, which has negative welfare implications. These implications occur because The results suggest that there is significant intra-EAC imported products attract high tariffs and artificially export trade, demonstrated by increases occurring after increase the local price of the products. In this case, 2005. Partner state performance of intra-EAC export the high CET rate on essential consumer products trade is not uniform across the states, with Kenya and inputs such as cement, clinkers, hard wheat dominating the rest, followed by Uganda and Tanzania and sugar for industrial use has affected consumer and extremely poor performance from Rwanda and welfare and increased the cost of manufacturing since Burundi. The negative trade balance of sensitive local capacities for expansion are still inadequate. products demonstrates the production deficiencies We conclude that, although the welfare effects are within the EAC region. This finding implies that the positive, it is mainly Kenya that benefits, mostly in the demand for sensitive products exceeds the intra-EAC raw sugar sector. regional supply capacity, creating a deficit that is met by imports from the rest of the world. Implicitly, the Although it was envisaged that Partner States would results suggest that, notwithstanding the growth in increase the revenue generated from the sensitive list intra-EAC exports of the sensitive list products, there of products given the higher tariff rates, the results is still a deficiency in the regional capacity to produce suggest that the change is largely negative. This may within the bloc. This is a manifestation of the deficient arise from the growth in local sourcing and supply of production and supply capacities within the region. the sensitive products, reducing imports from the rest of the world. As the EAC countries partly turn to regional It is arguable that although the EAC Partner States took suppliers after applying the high sensitive list CET, the first step of generating a sensitive list, they did not foreign suppliers reduce the amount supplied, leading adequately put in place the necessary conditions to to a reduction in the customs revenue generated in the build sufficient capacity to produce the same products region. Prior to 2013, the entire EAC region experienced regionally. The EAC Partner States need to address revenue losses amounting to US $349 million, mostly supply-side constraints and to put in place appropriate accounted for by Uganda and Tanzania. The positive mechanisms and strategies to expand production Kenyan revenue gains in 2013 of US $1.78 billion

16 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue demonstrate the disproportionate nature of the gains 3. Develop a rational framework that is empirically and illustrate that overall the revenue gains do not based to determine which commodities should favour the region as a whole. be included or excluded from the sensitive list of products. This framework should be time- The EAC region made significant trade creation gains bound to avoid perpetual protection that does collectively to a tune of US $2.7 billion compared to not favour consumers. trade diversion to a tune of US $50 million. The results vindicate the arguments for the generation of the 4. Ensure that sectors/products that are sensitive list of products given that it has contributed performing well, such as the milk and rice to creating trade within the EAC region. The results sector, are both protected in the short term and further identify the sectors in which trade has been assisted to further improve their performance generated that can be used for strategic investments in the long term. within each partner state. The fact that trade creation 5. Augment the CET by including additional is significantly larger than the negligible trade diversion measures aimed at expanding production strengthens the argument for the establishment of capacity, productivity, and elimination of the sensitive list of products. Finally, concerns have supply constraints, such as high energy costs, been raised regarding the structure of the tariff lines inefficient infrastructure and communication, of the sensitive products. There are arguments and and policy, legal, and institutional constraints counterarguments regarding whether some products in the EAC. should be treated as sensitive. In view of this and the other findings, we recommend that the EAC should:

1. Review the EAC CET sensitive products list considering the negative effects that including certain products on the list is likely to have on manufacturing and consumption welfare in the EAC region. To that effect, since the region may not meet the growing demand for wheat, this product should be zero rated. Additionally, since raw sugar is a major input in food processing, its rate should be significantly lowered. The region is grappling with physical infrastructure development, which significantly uses cement. This product should be zero rated to lower the cost of infrastructure development. Other products need revisions as well.

2. Design and formulate strategies and plans to support the development of regional supply capacities to enhance the production of products in the sensitive list. These strategies should increase competitiveness and lower the cost of conducting business. For example, no amount of protection will increase the competitiveness of the sugar industry unless the yields per acre of cane sugar significantly increase from the current yield. This will entail technologies that increase the productivity of the cane sugar.

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 17 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

References Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements: Andriamananjara, S. (2011), “Customs Unions.” The Case of the EU-EAC”, mimeo, CREDIT, Chapter 5 of Preferential Trade Agreement University of Nottingham. Policies for Development: A Handbook, World Mudungwe Nicholas (2010). Is there a Common Bank, July 2011, Washington D.C. Criteria or Approach for Selecting Sensitive Bonga, W. G. (2014). Customs Administration, Laws, Products in Regional Trading Blocks: The Case and Procedures in Zimbabwe. Laws and for COMESA, EAC and SADC? Procedures in Zimbabwe (June 10, 2014). Mugisa Evarist, Chris Onyango and Patrick Mugoya Derosa, D. A., 1998. Regional Integration Arrangement: (2009). An Evaluation of the Implementation Static Economic Theory, Quantitative Findings, and Impact of the East African Community and Policy Guidelines: Background Paper for Customs Union Final Report the World Bank. ADR International Limited 200 Othieno, L. and Shinyekwa I., (2011). Trade, Revenue Park Avenue, Suite 202 Falls Church, Virginia and Welfare Effects of the East African 22046 USA Community Customs Union Principle of Grossman Gene and Elhana Helpman (1994) The Asymmetry on Uganda: An Application of WITS- Politics of Free Trade Agreements, American Smart Simulation Model. Economic Policy Economic Review, Vol. 85, No.4 , 667-690 Research Centre, Research Series No. 79 Kalenga, P (2004) Implementation of the SADC Trade Raihan Selim (2008) Rules of Origin and Sensitive List Protocol: A Preliminary Review in Monitoring under SAFTA and Bilateral FTAs among South Regional Integration in Southern Africa Asian Countries: Quantitative Assessments of Yearbook, Vol. 4 –(2004) Namibian Economic Potential Implications for Nepal, South Asian Policy Research Unit (NEPRU) Network on Economic Modeling, Department Kharel Paras (2010) Pruning Nepal’s sensitive lists of Economics, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh under SAFTA: South Asia Watch on Trade, Sangeeta K., K. Kimbugwe and N. Perdikis (2009), Economics and Environment (SAWTEE), “Assessing the Welfare Effects of the East Kathmandu African Community Customs Union’s Transition Kieck, E., & Maur, J. C. (2010). Regional integration Arrangement on Uganda”, Journal of Economic and customs unions. BORDER, 231. Integration, vol 24(4): 685 – 708 Kumar Sushil and Shahid Ahmed (2014) Impact of Srinivason, T. N., (1997) the common external tariff of Sensitive Lists under SAFTA: Quantitative a custom union: alternative approaches, Japan Assessment using a Partial Equilibrium and the World Economy, 9, pp. 447-465. Modelling European Journal of Globalization Stahl Heinz – Michael (2005) Tariff Liberalisation and Development Research, Vol. 10, No. 1, Impacts of the EAC Customs Union in 2014 Perspective, tralac Working PaperNo 4/2005 Laird S. and A. Yeats A. (1986), “The UNCTAD Trade Stern, Robert M. Jonathan Francis, Bruce Schumacher Policy Simulation Model, a Note on Methodology, (1982) Price Elasticities in International Trade: Data and Uses”, UNCTAD discussion paper 19, An Annotated Bibliography, Journal of Political UNCTAD; downloadable at:http://vi.unctad.org/ Economy Vol. 90, No. 3 (Jun., 1982), pp. 660- tda/background/Partial%20Equilibrium%20 662 Models%20- %20SMART/SMART.pdf. Viner, J. (1950) The customs union issue, Carnegie McIntyre, M. (2005), Trade Integration in EAC: An Endowment for International Peace. New York. Assessment for Kenya, IMF Working Paper World Bank, UNCTAD TRAINS (2011) World Integrated #05 (143), Washington D.C. Trade Solutions User’s Manual MEACA and Trademark East Africa (2014) Reassessing the EAC CET: Sensitive Items, Trade Development and the Entry of South Sudan Milner, C., O. Morrissey, and A. McKay (2002), “Some

18 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 3.7 78.3 19.3 55.9 31.9 84.8 64.0 771.1 272.1 139.1 113.5 541.4 525.5 279.3 681.5 499.3 458.9 218.9 253.0 143.9 332.0 413.0 1,777.1 1,421.1 1,111.4 6,837.4 2,784.4 4,903.4 1,480.5 1,137.5 1,868.5 1,356.4 2,298.5 1,085.9 7,576.3 5,423.9 2,377.6 5,260.0 3,359.6 44,521.4 24,648.5 12,489.9 13,721.6 13,060.6 75,065.0 10,713.6 39,195.8 442,801.1 151,331.5 9,038,337.3 M ean 08-14 4 67 27 35 74 33 23 23 89 46 4.7 891 852 574 214 230 196 448 1,881 1,644 3,274 4,675 7,744 7,719 1,153 6,949 1,283 2,819 1,398 2,766 2,206 1,196 1,948 16,764 69,703 41,053 70,476 33,478 21,538 16,308 15,288 185,227 119,652 641,968 2014 14,817,398 2 97 25 59 29 26 20 88 58 5.0 111 281 141 197 707 542 144 163 989 110 870 3,971 3,612 1,304 1,989 1,063 1,310 2,419 2,160 3,030 8,638 2,848 5,406 1,190 2,418 18,611 86,317 13,235 12,285 28,684 35,554 18,954 28,909 12,556 780,230 147,240 105,900 225,836 2013 13,171,084 4 71 67 73 63 20 20 60 5.5 271 321 167 117 112 602 224 855 355 316 316 188 258 1,721 3,747 8,467 4,987 2,192 1,332 2,655 7,765 2,944 2,274 9,144 1,579 8,045 1,019 1,456 4,430 1,050 9,528 67,951 22,991 26,237 25,483 12,325 51,519 217,214 626,988 124,448 2011 13,346,494 1 52 12 74 43 19 10 4.2 251 457 167 194 175 334 185 605 163 629 226 710 110 446 1,661 1,402 7,705 1,853 3,515 4,579 2,339 1,219 2,966 1,026 4,088 5,916 1,420 9,408 5,638 13,401 46,157 15,112 11,084 16,399 55,646 14,466 10,818 535,487 108,693 184,113 11,198,247 2010 4 64 15 24 75 73 29 36 18 3.5 121 141 281 201 481 132 415 384 113 103 179 409 399 398 268 1,941 7,527 6,124 1,794 4,414 1,049 2,325 1,515 2,429 2,489 4,989 4,989 4,386 2,148 1,926 1,818 15,729 33,493 18,459 12,950 13,180 95,988 195,397 441,422 9,387,054 2009 9 22 95 13 13 69 36 36 3.4 217 767 222 202 785 105 553 179 256 336 650 298 188 190 658 398 2,871 4,301 3,177 1,757 3,982 1,725 1,754 6,734 1,365 1,963 1,613 1,456 6,238 8,480 8,290 39,274 12,309 36,683 15,053 11,698 95,788 40,638 516,314 202,865 2008 10,386,421 2 41 77 62 55 43 13 20 3.2 167 542 202 135 175 344 875 344 543 703 109 859 166 856 178 630 830 1,907 7,717 7,194 1,845 1,034 1,444 6,024 3,419 8,159 3,983 2,920 3,090 1,126 1,518 94,507 21,457 31,342 96,819 15,030 19,900 54,346 45,218 437,970 2007 7,896,523 7 3 9 9 8 61 17 12 14 53 59 46 46 4.4 101 131 697 762 122 433 235 443 769 139 946 846 886 120 390 108 5,451 2,097 1,821 3,117 1,807 6,596 1,339 6,068 4,336 13,441 14,257 87,764 28,494 14,168 12,228 13,708 58,908 283,073 2006 6,700,361 1 3 11 47 17 17 52 43 64 20 20 98 2.6 491 321 302 852 784 464 675 895 159 819 353 169 106 106 296 580 530 288 108 2,771 1,925 5,025 4,780 2,286 1,606 2,658 3,218 11,977 57,047 14,222 20,983 41,166 21,690 14,298 214,375 6,168,153 2005 T able A1: V alue of E A C xports sensitive products ( US $ ‘000) Product label Worn clothing and other worn articles Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Proportion of Intra-EAC Exports sensitive products to total exports Wheat or meslin flour Womens/girls garments nes, of other textile materials, not knitted Womens/girls garments nes, of man-made fibres, not knitted Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Wheat nes and meslin Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Raw sugar, beet Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Bed linen, of cotton, nes Matches Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Raw sugar, cane Rice, broken Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Lithium primary cells and batteries Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, husked (brown) Portland cement nes Maize (corn) nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Corks, crown, of base metal Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Cigarettes containing tobacco All products Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Total export value of sensitive list products exported to the EAC Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted C ode 630510 630900 630291 850680 630231 630251 850610 850660 621149 621143 630221 830910 850630 850650 521151 521215 520951 521225 551441 520851 520852 551341 360500 240220 240310 252329 TOTAL 40120 40130 40110 40390 40210 40229 40291 40299 40310 40221 170199 170112 170191 110100 170111 100640 100630 100620 100190 100610 100590 APP ENDIX

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 19 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 4 77 22 23 78 551 194 183 933 779 739 236 626 870 108 2,131 2,511 1,747 7,047 6,457 5,682 6,212 1,274 5,184 1,294 4,534 5,079 1,009 1,360 9,426 1,276 2,090 10,491 17,451 11,342 24,204 50,954 23,865 80,933 57,779 33,389 17,130 37,848 22,346 221,527 315,492 310,122 283,830 1,588,435 40,901,256 2014 5 24 14 98 177 391 237 377 512 875 314 323 503 349 589 570 450 168 648 2,491 1,112 5,332 9,374 5,104 8,375 1,855 5,033 1,473 6,176 2,888 5,328 8,878 4,006 15,471 70,507 17,074 18,275 30,645 16,105 32,873 52,009 26,730 13,050 10,268 264,511 207,822 245,595 214,635 417,713 1,727,327 37,448,195 2013 6 741 241 141 487 547 207 677 367 512 522 414 845 303 789 253 470 500 7,001 2,067 2,007 5,117 4,082 2,114 3,154 1,104 8,224 1,415 4,613 2,909 6,143 8,956 7,286 2,836 65,311 13,351 17,797 14,191 69,057 40,652 10,134 10,113 62,839 20,310 28,786 223,381 611,071 211,202 369,850 182,840 2,027,919 35,963,377 2012 7 65 851 581 851 191 617 454 244 805 155 974 703 623 343 490 730 258 1,041 7,987 6,227 1,482 1,522 9,034 4,304 1,204 7,825 6,954 3,545 1,340 1,096 1,030 3,398 4,198 10,851 11,231 26,927 22,344 60,115 15,234 54,573 18,520 73,668 12,276 201,167 214,582 151,045 321,986 105,240 957,630 2,328,511 34,478,559 2011 7 93 13 66 721 251 377 177 242 114 124 314 295 453 613 399 510 598 628 316 668 7,677 1,117 3,197 7,432 4,182 4,002 1,615 7,165 8,813 1,089 2,029 1,238 8,750 7,140 1,266 88,521 11,167 46,807 23,197 14,572 63,429 53,519 18,526 11,106 149,071 188,164 230,109 659,213 184,488 1,815,573 26,579,349 2010 9 8 53 76 46 251 491 451 187 277 154 155 535 205 603 456 736 810 578 540 7,151 3,467 2,747 1,292 1,742 3,184 6,234 3,305 8,435 1,275 8,343 8,249 1,009 2,078 6,710 5,466 1,458 77,467 64,582 74,622 17,905 20,553 14,949 14,956 42,540 156,841 533,271 143,332 396,924 130,123 1,766,823 22,437,006 2009 5 77 23 76 50 28 341 391 737 302 154 275 544 265 799 683 179 289 156 600 168 2,811 1,761 2,081 1,327 6,685 7,545 1,334 2,834 2,795 5,579 1,249 5,130 1,560 7,796 20,681 21,291 11,241 10,191 11,207 59,767 76,452 16,923 70,013 14,409 64,149 135,987 116,729 496,529 144,228 1,326,421 25,126,606 2008 6 18 427 102 744 535 145 335 175 113 773 239 873 480 240 516 626 248 158 688 148 278 338 1,101 8,987 8,957 2,102 6,652 6,052 9,774 4,345 2,455 2,109 4,409 6,296 1,940 1,978 10,051 17,074 72,204 50,915 10,595 14,169 11,436 79,790 52,080 34,218 171,355 119,064 487,114 1,205,421 19,452,485 2007 7 7 5 91 54 80 471 617 441 311 167 232 142 172 802 155 704 349 859 139 160 246 210 380 100 1,361 3,901 4,281 8,527 1,282 3,152 8,684 3,843 6,613 3,189 6,738 1,440 8,658 1,646 51,462 12,302 11,825 66,294 53,455 47,505 16,869 52,260 103,337 197,657 329,834 1,013,009 15,317,750 2006 6 47 62 95 25 53 63 20 58 377 212 202 355 114 694 173 153 369 689 319 179 259 400 286 250 216 718 7,187 9,682 8,152 5,094 3,405 7,903 1,673 2,253 2,706 1,459 1,280 2,218 4,678 3,480 45,137 27,077 13,692 49,593 73,659 89,719 18,259 41,360 271,091 697,145 11,779,562 2005 T able A2: V alue of E A C imports sensitive products from outside the region ( US $ ‘000) Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Worn clothing and other worn articles Wheat or meslin flour Womens/girls garments nes, of other textile materials, not knitted Womens/girls garments nes, of man-made fibres, not knitted Wheat nes and meslin Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Portland cement nes Matches Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Raw sugar, beet Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Bed linen, of cotton, nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Proportion of imports sensitive products from outside EAC to total Maize (corn) flour Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Rice, broken Raw sugar, cane Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Product label Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Lithium primary cells and batteries Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Cigarettes containing tobacco Corks, crown, of base metal Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Air-zinc primary cells and batteries All products (imports ) Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Total import value of sensitive list products from outside the EAC region 630291 630251 630510 630900 630231 630221 621149 621143 551341 521225 830910 850630 520851 520852 521151 521215 850610 850640 850650 850660 850680 520951 C ode 551441 360500 240220 240310 252329 40221 40229 TOTAL 40210 40291 40299 40310 40390 40110 40130 40120 170199 110100 170112 170191 100640 170111 110220 100610 100590 100620 100630 100190

20 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 3 54 69 15 (4) 111 515 527 356 (98) (77) 2014 (531) (203) (134) (465) (121) 1,897 1,306 3,810 10,571 10,332 19,522 20,333 52,573 (1,625) (6,570) (2,012) (7,760) (2,260) (4,393) (2,861) (4,360) (2,640) (2,079) (10,043) (36,228) (15,787) (47,415) (36,300) (56,391) (307,773) (288,406) (946,467) (155,234) (26,083,858) 4 4 783 525 124 599 219 528 (30) (10) 2013 (262) (384) (181) (213) (191) (329) (306) (592) (692) 8,552 3,477 4,764 1,014 4,925 59,587 11,314 26,055 18,014 87,625 17,598 (2,598) (2,851) (6,339) (6,863) (4,977) (6,207) (2,513) (5,154) (6,156) (1,342) (11,367) (28,999) (40,889) (51,864) (233,310) (253,821) (178,587) (947,097) (263,406) (24,277,111) 4 8 92 94 (3) 211 378 (66) (73) (28) (31) (38) 2011 (169) (229) (525) (173) (678) (653) (511) (729) (627) (269) (670) (897) 4,417 2,022 2,632 1,554 2,219 12,501 (1,644) (1,747) (8,196) (5,224) (2,213) (2,082) (5,527) (1,365) (4,892) (3,401) (6,910) (4,356) 102,104 (97,195) (24,909) (47,309) (188,215) (947,638) (125,970) (272,962) (1,701,523) (21,132,065) - 8 85 69 20 431 167 161 586 410 445 (98) 2010 (670) (206) (444) (511) (111) (160) (637) (268) (396) (553) (542) (129) (101) 1,781 4,733 3,323 4,274 2,153 2,906 90,167 30,145 (1,803) (4,711) (4,575) (5,073) (2,538) (1,974) (43,571) (73,409) (16,186) (46,892) (90,755) (10,440) (176,783) (624,828) (207,728) (1,280,086) (15,381,102) 5 8 10 (1) 352 264 (47) (64) 2009 (402) (271) (359) (101) (777) (225) (217) (899) (659) (275) (395) (218) (208) (263) (508) 3,447 9,611 1,279 4,859 2,218 81,687 65,274 (1,027) (2,563) (1,209) (5,820) (2,194) (6,474) (4,741) (3,376) (1,644) (69,632) (15,489) (61,752) (24,081) (16,455) (14,684) (135,805) (526,757) (395,407) (143,889) (1,325,401) (13,049,952) 1 7 5 8 48 (1) 494 123 333 518 159 298 162 516 (43) (19) (54) (34) 2008 (946) (251) (652) (935) (948) (541) (741) (236) 1,422 2,253 4,803 5,488 1,316 20,622 83,416 (3,814) (1,111) (4,177) (9,244) (1,284) (1,066) (1,424) 107,132 (69,718) (65,617) (16,147) (51,285) (14,789) (93,957) (13,926) (132,530) (481,476) (810,107) (14,740,185) 6 27 99 (6) 602 595 769 440 268 (14) (91) (99) (46) (69) (21) 2007 (115) (211) (936) (204) (136) (692) (183) (167) (356) (411) (298) 3,261 3,927 1,034 4,098 1,509 14,585 11,000 80,338 37,898 (1,914) (2,877) (1,240) (6,201) (7,725) (6,017) (48,046) (14,610) (42,719) (17,858) (10,876) (104,034) (454,638) (767,451) (148,393) (11,555,962) - 3 8 63 735 755 379 375 426 853 (57) (47) (25) (27) (25) (59) (65) (53) (15) 2006 (271) (134) (141) (221) (212) (370) (550) 2,831 1,315 1,368 2,650 12,071 75,939 19,309 (1,457) (3,622) (3,079) (7,681) (1,248) (1,227) (8,530) (52,819) (49,008) (13,901) (48,004) (24,828) (87,859) (183,489) (301,023) (729,936) (8,617,389) 5 6 8 21 17 84 18 39 46 177 232 127 385 719 518 848 (38) (65) (68) (35) (38) 2005 (141) (347) (174) (496) (145) (130) (147) (539) 3,192 1,383 4,833 2,358 53,521 (1,932) (1,142) (2,113) (1,594) (2,072) (4,473) (6,192) (1,388) (3,145) (77,742) (39,074) (11,250) (42,366) (69,734) (144,294) (482,770) (5,611,409) T able A3: rade balance of the E A C imports for sensitive products ( US $ ‘000) Product label Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Bed linen, of cotton, nes Worn clothing and other worn articles Wheat nes and meslin Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream nes sweetened Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Maize (corn) nes Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Wheat or meslin flour Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Primary cells & primary batteries nes Rice, broken Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Lithium primary cells and batteries Maize (corn) flour Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Raw sugar, beet Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Matches Corks, crown, of base metal Portland cement nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Womens/girls garments nes, of man-made fibres, not knitted Womens/girls garments nes, of other textile materials, not knitted Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/ Cigarettes containing tobacco Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes m2,printd Trade balance - sensitive list products Trade balance - All products C ode 630221 630231 630251 630291 630510 630900 Proportion of trade balance accounted for by sensitive list products 830910 850610 850630 850640 850650 850680 850660 520851 520852 520951 521151 521215 621143 521225 621149 551341 551441 360500 40110 40120 240220 40130 40210 40221 240310 252329 40291 40229 40299 40310 40390 TOTAL 100190 100590 100630 100610 100620 100640 110100 170111 110220 170191 170112 170199

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 21 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue ------4 3 67 74 35 10 18 10 78 157 212 704 478 258 15.2 2014 1,891 1,741 1,135 1,139 1,033 3,546 1,090 14,691 10,463 58,469 97,306 642,244 ------2 5 5 47 17 35 19 19 20 577 337 244 405 295 645 155 219 450 228 15.7 2013 2,447 7,057 2,035 9,180 5,396 10,561 98,786 58,386 627,416 ------1 1 4 6 12 14 34 53 30 68 28 48 18 295 544 313 199 518 128 18.4 2012 1,641 9,282 2,294 4,185 4,033 5,746 4,748 53,512 18,774 106,529 580,270 ------1 1 2 2 5 5 3 3 3 3 9 31 41 17 12 23 65 39 60 40 18 28 112 775 479 379 460 108 16.1 2011 5,491 3,072 8,034 1,864 4,680 2,358 80,891 41,282 11,386 503,743 ------1 1 1 2 5 3 6 17 17 52 75 16 78 90 127 152 974 519 320 230 18.9 2010 1,851 7,504 1,383 1,136 1,840 8,008 7,546 80,987 33,685 15,348 428,591 ------1 1 5 8 21 21 11 82 22 64 53 30 10 88 807 399 113 376 320 146 16.8 2009 1,657 1,189 2,076 3,450 5,690 2,078 33,531 67,129 14,880 398,792 ------1 1 3 6 6 72 25 35 84 63 63 13 80 18 18 387 502 852 105 305 925 275 783 588 16.5 2008 2,471 1,255 1,223 1,736 2,398 14,497 62,399 33,609 377,437 ------1 1 1 1 2 5 3 17 85 13 35 88 68 28 8.4 127 267 483 183 865 509 646 2007 3,141 4,757 6,862 1,185 1,613 2,236 23,222 274,818 ------7 7 4 3 61 12 83 59 86 20 36 26 9.0 851 611 591 113 433 106 2006 1,131 2,153 4,719 1,546 1,030 13,688 152,830 ------1 37 12 93 23 10 70 60 78 6.0 175 365 123 313 369 139 229 700 670 118 498 858 158 2005 8,704 3,605 144,770 T able B 1: U ganda’s contribution to intra- E A C export ( US ‘000) Worn clothing and other worn articles Womens/girls garments nes, of other textile materials, not knitted Wheat or meslin flour Product label Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Wheat nes and meslin Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Womens/girls garments nes, of man-made fibres, not knitted Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Rice, broken Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, husked (brown) Raw sugar, beet Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Primary cells & primary batteries nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Maize (corn) nes Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Matches Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Portland cement nes Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Lithium primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Corks, crown, of base metal Cigarettes containing tobacco Cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes, cntg tobacco substitutes All products Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Total 630900 630510 621149 630221 630231 830910 850610 621143 850630 850650 850680 850660 520852 521215 520851 551341 551441 360500 240220 240290 240310 252329 code 40130 40120 40110 40210 TOTAL 40221 40229 40299 40291 40310 40390 100640 100630 110100 100620 170112 170111 170191 100610 170199 100190 100590

22 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue ------1 1 1 2 2 2 4 6 3 21 27 22 26 23 53 63 88 18 10 8.9 111 511 101 774 353 133 643 186 619 2013 1,366 1,029 7,279 2,418 12,131 68,521 17,795 114,343 1,285,408 ------1 1 1 2 6 3 4 21 52 34 14 16 56 76 36 9.3 651 111 547 282 242 564 156 493 258 728 186 999 238 408 610 2011 4,667 2,285 1,296 2,859 1,218 84,241 20,606 21,848 145,816 1,571,180 - - - - - 1 1 7 7 2 2 5 5 5 3 4 9 11 11 17 22 55 14 18 18 9.7 602 855 105 654 299 516 278 169 268 299 299 808 168 440 2010 1,631 1,055 5,425 2,354 78,737 13,015 15,734 123,928 1,279,232 ------7 7 7 2 5 4 6 3 6 8 6 9 65 14 94 24 13 38 225 336 128 298 316 159 679 778 329 890 250 11.7 2009 5,541 1,191 1,681 2,001 3,957 89,854 16,466 12,040 137,437 1,170,493 ------1 7 5 6 9 21 31 31 71 27 42 22 12 15 95 76 19 38 10 267 292 284 103 914 314 636 483 398 368 11.6 2008 1,222 5,235 1,854 8,763 3,108 5,560 95,927 15,546 141,812 1,220,520 ------1 2 5 5 4 4 6 4 32 25 55 24 14 16 18 70 247 124 584 536 654 159 424 538 318 243 628 438 568 10.6 2007 6,164 5,678 3,063 1,228 2,748 4,370 13,424 58,870 101,291 952,789 ------1 2 3 8 8 6 91 25 25 65 64 33 66 16 88 88 39 20 9.8 181 316 653 758 723 343 250 349 208 430 2006 9,741 4,887 4,897 2,205 1,016 2,436 42,142 72,183 737,145 ------1 2 2 2 6 11 17 42 92 72 35 15 24 38 63 73 88 20 30 4.4 321 272 115 765 234 283 719 283 278 198 990 2005 3,053 3,128 42,851 31,579 976,212 T able B 2: K enya’s contribution to intra- E A C export ( US ‘000) Primary cells & primary batteries nes Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Product label Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, nes Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Matches Portland cement nes Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Raw sugar, cane Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Lithium primary cells and batteries Rice, broken Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Raw sugar, beet Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Rice, husked (brown) Maize (corn) nes Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Womens/girls garments nes, of man-made fibres, not knitted Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Womens/girls garments nes, of other textile materials, not knitted Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Worn clothing and other worn articles Wheat or meslin flour Wheat nes and meslin Corks, crown, of base metal Cigarettes containing tobacco Air-zinc primary cells and batteries All products Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Product code 850680 850660 850650 850630 850610 830910 630291 621143 630251 621149 630231 630221 630900 630510 521215 521151 551441 521225 520951 551341 360500 520852 240220 240310 252329 TOTAL 40110 40120 40130 40210 40221 40291 40299 40310 40390 40229 110100 100630 170111 170199 170191 100640 170112 100620 100190 100610 100590

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 23 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue ------1 1 1 9 6 8 82 52 15 43 19 19 79 20 10 102 784 270 11.1 2014 8,451 2,361 6,432 1,134 66,271 28,043 18,329 598,144 ------2 2 4 3 21 27 32 33 15 23 73 653 739 199 146 186 100 430 10.8 2013 8,631 1,007 1,807 1,264 7,033 1,273 3,100 6,606 12,327 45,736 421,614 ------1 1 7 3 21 31 67 12 34 33 15 45 23 53 19 56 16 90 882 992 215 919 596 13.9 2012 2,352 2,284 8,105 3,979 1,190 85,361 26,622 20,438 16,260 613,303 ------1 1 7 3 77 19 39 40 50 18 10 18 58 502 602 164 989 159 686 228 120 146 10.0 2011 1,057 5,834 2,364 2,113 3,639 11,311 10,764 41,019 408,955 ------1 1 1 5 81 52 22 34 69 29 53 66 26 30 9.8 141 144 225 124 166 176 2010 4,101 6,094 1,033 9,973 6,639 1,700 1,538 54,511 11,632 10,355 558,027 ------1 1 2 4 6 8 81 11 81 51 11 22 14 14 35 85 15 23 59 19 89 20 36 18 58 4.1 437 344 126 260 2009 5,691 1,827 2,204 11,653 284,992 ------1 7 2 2 5 5 11 77 17 57 67 22 52 70 6.0 647 402 382 242 463 243 146 2008 3,377 2,134 1,973 1,649 9,236 21,289 355,696 ------1 1 7 7 2 4 3 91 91 15 83 56 36 28 48 147 164 130 180 768 16.1 2007 2,157 1,037 2,315 2,288 12,011 41,427 19,757 258,044 ------1 2 2 2 2 5 4 3 3 9 6 8 6 21 47 15 43 30 10 28 68 394 150 316 11.3 2006 1,417 2,617 21,812 16,603 192,218 ------1 1 1 5 4 12 35 79 19 49 657 437 255 145 679 656 24.2 2005 1,349 4,409 7,620 1,506 21,231 39,150 162,009 T able B 3: anzania’s contribution to intra- E A C export ( US ‘000) Worn clothing and other worn articles Wheat nes and meslin Wheat or meslin flour Womens/girls garments nes, of man-made fibres, not knitted Womens/girls garments nes, of other textile materials, not knitted Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Maize (corn) nes Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Product label Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Raw sugar, cane Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Raw sugar, beet Lithium primary cells and batteries Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Matches Portland cement nes Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Corks, crown, of base metal Cigarettes containing tobacco Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa All products Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Product code 630900 850650 630510 630291 850630 621143 850680 621149 630221 630231 630251 850610 830910 551441 520852 521225 551341 520951 521151 521215 520851 360500 252329 240220 240310 40130 40210 40221 40120 40110 40229 40390 40291 40299 40310 TOTAL 100590 170111 100190 110100 170112 100610 100620 100630 100640 170191 170199

24 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue ------1 7 6 6 31 41 27 65 2.2 891 711 373 625 184 968 176 2014 2,517 7,922 1,293 353,075 ------1 4 9 41 42 14 15 35 93 16 40 1.7 654 354 104 486 2013 2,081 2,357 7,712 1,366 453,014 ------1 2 2 2 3 4 3 9 8 11 48 18 0.7 202 803 319 928 2012 2,363 342,293 ------1 4 5 5 5 11 55 50 50 10 10 1.0 222 390 818 2011 80,974 ------1 7 2 8 43 68 2.2 144 674 280 2010 1,227 55,918 ------7 6 11 78 1.4 772 512 2009 1,386 98,116 ------1 5 5 11 85 25 35 1.2 377 385 699 2008 1,628 140,944 ------2 4 3 41 87 39 50 78 2.7 832 100 2007 1,236 45,272 ------3 77 12 85 13 60 10 1.2 191 451 2006 36,998 ------7 9 8 12 16 1.0 131 361 178 2005 37,176 T able B 4: R wanda’s contribution to intra- E A C export ( US ‘000) Wheat nes and meslin Wheat or meslin flour Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Worn clothing and other worn articles Milk and cream nes sweetened Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Matches Product label Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Portland cement nes Rice, broken Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Cigarettes containing tobacco Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Corks, crown, of base metal Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa All products Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 25 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue ------1 4 19 1.3 315 339 2014 25,454 ------1 2 5 6 24 8.5 2013 2,495 2,533 29,800 ------1 2 3 0.1 2012 4,663 ------4 4 8 5 5.3 202 2011 1,296 1,519 28,452 ------5 2 222 502 11.7 2010 1,369 2,100 17,940 ------1 53 105 12.0 2009 1,385 1,796 3,340 27,917 ------1 3 91 12 338 19.3 2008 1,357 3,317 1,515 17,222 ------6 2 4 6 905 263 26.5 2007 7,232 6,046 27,246 ------44 10 3.3 447 805 2006 1,306 39,115 ------820 14.7 2005 1,228 2,048 13,967 T able B 5: urundi’s contribution to intra- E A C export ( US ‘000) Product label Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Maize (corn) nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Raw sugar, cane Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Portland cement nes All products Matches Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Worn clothing and other worn articles Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Cigarettes containing tobacco Lithium primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Corks, crown, of base metal

26 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue ------1 1 7 6 8 82 52 15 24 10 10 10 18 281 102 784 753 105 223 248 546 268 10.6 2014 1,042 3,562 6,432 1,373 3,573 6,769 1,820 1,090 10,301 10,855 77,689 28,119 15,659 171,838 1,618,917 - - - - 1 7 2 4 8 41 44 45 63 49 10 88 18 9.6 101 151 287 221 157 647 139 499 199 220 660 2013 8,637 6,201 1,851 1,439 1,193 7,883 1,829 3,189 8,569 1,009 2,078 2,046 8,168 2,418 8,798 12,164 10,565 21,365 16,459 269,110 139,588 2,817,252 ------1 1 4 4 21 27 31 67 31 17 25 19 86 48 36 88 18 101 602 214 544 264 896 128 12.6 2012 2,867 5,425 1,214 3,934 9,283 4,230 6,936 1,060 4,838 70,093 10,399 20,446 18,800 31,458 194,256 1,540,529 - - - 3 11 81 17 41 14 35 54 13 56 53 36 60 271 267 112 125 255 413 139 880 559 186 650 186 238 10.4 2011 5,001 8,111 9,201 6,211 1,392 4,832 2,864 1,214 6,713 2,373 2,189 4,700 2,140 3,128 11,762 22,015 12,415 21,986 137,061 270,063 2,593,304 - - - - - 1 7 2 5 5 3 45 44 70 10 18 231 337 172 995 354 423 293 163 856 106 530 996 440 668 168 11.2 2010 2,657 3,382 2,384 3,104 8,816 5,446 1,130 7,898 6,998 4,108 8,688 13,087 21,451 11,237 13,369 17,328 262,753 124,728 2,339,708 - - - - - 1 7 8 21 72 24 94 15 39 89 10 38 197 105 264 194 350 126 158 336 120 340 770 348 250 11.2 2009 1,601 1,841 2,967 1,727 5,653 2,015 1,664 3,795 3,675 2,679 3,979 1,580 1,066 7,578 12,083 15,220 17,998 220,945 129,848 1,980,310 ------7 9 6 9 21 77 42 12 15 23 84 73 341 347 731 837 947 247 392 485 270 320 310 10.9 2008 3,831 2,141 1,062 1,722 5,652 2,552 3,692 1,354 3,735 5,620 3,789 8,870 1,490 3,528 17,124 14,870 10,510 230,445 133,298 2,111,819 - - - - - 1 5 5 9 6 15 24 25 39 16 46 38 621 807 347 152 323 424 159 199 243 248 569 716 586 658 11.2 2007 5,701 4,101 2,691 6,182 1,042 2,264 5,555 3,193 2,149 1,830 1,336 2,756 68,147 14,964 20,115 10,853 15,248 174,408 1,558,169 ------1 2 3 8 8 8 8 41 32 33 40 10 36 70 20 96 68 9.4 432 365 205 465 323 103 619 283 806 660 390 208 2006 4,947 5,931 1,502 5,114 3,155 2,603 2,479 1,610 3,138 44,297 18,083 11,238 109,440 1,158,306 ------1 1 2 2 6 61 87 17 42 92 20 19 38 7.0 327 321 211 197 227 207 657 287 272 912 365 325 293 556 749 240 770 278 2005 3,341 3,171 1,841 1,107 3,234 2,899 4,529 21,232 93,114 32,890 11,288 1,334,134 T able B 6: otal intra- E A C export ( US ‘000) Product label Worn clothing and other worn articles Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Womens/girls garments nes, of other textile materials, not knitted Womens/girls garments nes, of man-made fibres, not knitted Primary cells & primary batteries nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Wheat or meslin flour Wheat nes and meslin Bed linen, of cotton, nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Matches Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Raw sugar, cane Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Portland cement nes Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Raw sugar, beet Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Maize (corn) nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Rice, broken Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Corks, crown, of base metal Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes, cntg tobacco substitutes Cigarettes containing tobacco Air-zinc primary cells and batteries All products Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Total Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted C ode 630291 630510 630251 630900 630231 850650 850640 850630 850660 850680 630221 621149 850610 621143 830910 551341 520851 520852 551441 520951 521215 521151 360500 252329 240310 240290 240220 40120 40130 40110 40210 40221 40229 40291 TOTAL 40299 40310 40390 170111 110100 170112 170199 170191 100590 100610 100620 100190 100640 100630

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 27 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.2 0.5 7.5 2.3 1.5 0.5 7.9 0.9 0.3 2.6 0.6 2.6 otal -5.1 -0.7 -6.2 -1.2 -1.4 -3.5 -3.9 -1.9 -5.8 20.7 58.4 85.4 58.8 T otal -58.7 -19.8 159.1 T 209.2 -138.1 -789.5 -563.3 -158.3 -395.5 1,000.00 3,101.10 5,089.40 1,166.80 1,017.20 -16,459.2 -1,032.40 -6,643.60 -8,447.90 ------

7 0 0 0 0.7 0.2 7.2 ------5.6 15.7 25.3 2013 0.1 1.2 -36 261 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 2013 -17.4 -20.8 334.2 - - -

2 0 0 0 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.7 0.1 1 0.5 1.6 0 0 12.1 24.3 10.3 2012 -58.8 251.3 -0.1 -0.1 -5.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -1.4 -789.7 -540.4 2012 -18.7 -35.3 -25.6 -54.8 107.4 1,002.00 1,019.30 -1,773.20 ------0 0 0 -2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.3 0.9 0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 -0.3 -3.4 -1.8 -0.6 23.1 -0.4 2011 47.3 -15.8 350.7 -125 166.6 2011 -22.2 -22.6 -117.5 -136.2 2,920.00 2,522.50 - - - 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.3 3.9 0.6 - - - - 42.7 47.3 0 0 2010 -22.2 -22.6 457.7 -2 -136.7 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 -0.3 -9.9 -1.8 -0.6 2010 1,928.80 1,550.50 -79.1 -15.8 350.7 166.6 -117.5 2,507.60 -3,863.00 -2,435.20 -4,223.80 - - - - 0 98 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 0.3 6.3 3.9 0.6 42.7 47.3 2009 457.7 255.8 - - - - - 0 -2 3,804.20 1,338.40 1,550.50 0.1 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 -0.5 -9.9 -1.8 -0.6 2009 -79.1 -15.6 -15.8 -320.4 -117.5 -15,989.9 -1,308.50 -7,457.20 -2,435.20 -4,223.80 ------0 0 -1.1 -0.3 -2.3 -3.6 2008 ------0 0.1 2.7 0.3 43.7 58.6 2008 105.3 T able C 1: B urundi’s Welfare E ffects ( US ‘000) T able C 2: R evenue B urundi’s E ffects ( US ‘000) Wheat or meslin flour Matches Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir & ferm or acid milk cream nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir Maize (corn) nes Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Primary cells & primary batteries nes Primary Bed linen, of cotton, nes Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter sugar,in Refined Portland cement nes Portland Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, husked (brown) Rice, husked Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Raw sugar, cane sugar, Raw Rice, broken Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Product Product Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Corks, crown, of base metal Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Yogurt Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Toilet Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Table

Wheat or meslin flour Matches Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Raw sugar, cane Portland cement nes Rice, broken Product Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Rice, husked (brown) Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Corks, crown, of base metal Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes 40221 40390 40310 40210 40130 40120 40110 630291 630251 630231 630221 170191 170111 252329 630510 830910 850680 360500 100630 100620 100590 100640 110100 630221 630231 630251 630510 630291 850680 830910 C ode C ode 360500 252329 40120 40110 40130 40210 40221 40310 40390 170191 170111 110100 100700 100640 100630 100620 100590

28 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

3 3 0

24 1 15 3 0.7 2.4 3.6 0.9 24 22.7 38.4 26.3 3.7 17.8 10.8 2.4 2.9 0.6 -0.1 362.2 254.8 638.8 10.7 26.2 14.4 38.4 22.6 17.8 -376.2 -293.8 4581.7 638.7 362.2 254.8 3,081.9 -9860.8 -5490.8 -376.2 -293.8 13097.9 4,581.70 3,081.30 -9,860.80 -5,490.70 13,097.90 ------

------0.1 7.7 0.4 0.3 7.9

28.1 25.1 64.5 2013 0.1 7.7 0.3 0.4 7.9 28.1 25.1 64.5 -995.7 2013 -995.7 -1,994.60 -2,856.20 -1,994.60 -2,856.20 - - -

97 - - - 13 0.1 0.1 5.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.4 0.3 7.8

41.5 42.9 41.6 97 13 2012 0.1 0.1 5.2 0.2 0.2 2.4 0.3 7.8 41.5 42.9 41.6 2012 1,310.10 -7,897.40 -2,582.90 -8,917.30 Creation 1,310.10 -7,897.40 -2,582.90 -8,917.80

1 0 3.2 2.2 0.2 3.5 0.4 2.3 3.5 2.9 0.3

1 0 31.1 10.4 2011 3.2 2.2 0.2 3.5 2.9 2.3 0.4 3.5 0.3 189.7 31.1 10.4 -565.3 -589.9 -171.9 -590 2011 189.7 -171.9 -565.3 -6,603.90 -7,680.50 -6,603.90 -7,680.50

1 0

1 0 3.2 2.2 0.2 0.4 3.5 0.3 5.8 3.2 2.2 0.2 0.4 3.5 0.3 5.8 31.1 19.2 10.4 -590 31.1 19.2 10.4 2010 181.1 189.7 696.9 2010 181.1 189.7 696.9 -196.4 -565.3 -196.4 -565.3 -589.9 1,635.80 6,548.80 6,548.80 1,635.80 -6,584.00 -6,584.00

1

1 1.7 3.2 2.2 0.2 3.5 0.3 5.8 1.7 3.2 2.2 0.2 3.5 0.3 5.8 31.1 19.2 10.4 61.5 2009 31.1 19.2 10.4 61.5 181.1 189.7 712.9 2009 181.1 189.7 712.9 6,548.80 1,635.80 1,240.40 1,240.40 1,635.80 6,548.80 11,406.00 22,054.60 11,406.00 22,054.60

0 0 0 0 -7.7 -0.4 -7.7 -0.4 2008 2008 -77.2 -77.2 -130.3 -215.6 -130.3 -215.6 T able C 3: B urundi’s rade E ffects ( US ‘000) T able C 4: B urundi’s rade reation E ffects ( US ‘000) Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Wheat or meslin flour Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir & ferm or acid milk cream nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir Raw sugar, cane sugar, Raw Rice, broken Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, husked (brown) Rice, husked Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter sugar,in Refined Portland cement nes Portland Matches Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Primary cells & primary batteries nes Primary Bed linen, of cotton, nes Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Corks, crown, of base metal Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Yogurt Wheat or meslin flour Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Maize (corn) nes Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Matches Portland cement nes Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Corks, crown, of base metal Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Table Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Toilet Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product Product

Product

40221 40221 40310 40110 40120 40130 40210 40390 40110 40120 40130 40210 40310 40390 170111 170191 630251 630221 630231 630291 170111 170191 630221 630231 630251 630291 252329 100590 100620 100630 100640 110100 360500 630510 830910 850680 252329 100590 100640 110100 100630 100620 360500 850680 830910 630510 C ode

Code

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 29 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

30 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.03 0.38 2.027 0.317 0.862 6.532 2.244 2.133 26.73 0.003 0.108 0.358 T otal 72.297 66.297 21.305 34.834 65.314 35.456 -660.97 109.662 805.349 2,230.07 1,171.22 2,255.15 6,278.36 11,675.272 ------

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013

0 0.01 5.73 2013 0.511 0.154 0.015 0.044 0.004 0.023 0.193 0.536 0.278 0.008 16.431 15.762 62.345 14.226 362.507 277.722 161.714 402.543 5,141.61 ------

0 0 0 0 2012

0 0.01 5.73 2012 0.511 0.082 0.154 0.015 0.004 0.023 0.193 0.039 0.536 0.278 16.421 15.762 14.226 -47.181 768.592 348.264 1320.05 402.543 5,141.61

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011 0 0 0 0 9.77 0.13 2011 0.191 0.011 0.021 4.557 0.062 0.554 0.014 0.029 16.33 0.036 0.046 1.738 1.038 -0.019 18.917 10.295 -34.973 -123.63 249.401 409.774

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2010 0 0 0 0 0 1.85 2010 0.191 0.062 0.012 0.132 0.222 0.014 5.144 0.375 0.085 9.935 0.029 1.038 - 90.151 77.651 47.072

10.964

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -123.63 409.774 576.999 5762.28 2009 0 0 0 0 0 3.77

0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 0.731 6.981 0.001 7.571 0.017 1.342 1.076 0.126 -0.002 52.761 99.961 27.077 18.107 92.504 11.939 -194.44 538.317 516.076 588.436 577.858 2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.78 2008 0.377 0.007 0.052 0.002 8.623 0.246 2.146 1.308 0.458 -5.352 -0.003 39.338 -219.27 129.542 T able D 1: R wanda’s Welfare E ffects ( US ‘000) T able C 5: B urundi’s rade D iversion E ffects ( US ‘000) Wheat or meslin flour Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Maize (corn) nes Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Raw sugar, cane Rice, broken Portland cement nes Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Matches Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Corks, crown, of base metal Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product

Wheat nes and meslin Worn clothing and other worn articles Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Product Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Bed linen, of cotton, nes Maize (corn) nes Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Matches Portland cement nes Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Raw sugar, beet Rice, husked (brown) Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Raw sugar, cane Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Cigarettes containing tobacco Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes

40221 40221 40110 40120 40130 40210 40310 40390 40310 40390 40110 40120 170191 170111 630221 630231 630251 630291 630251 630291 630231 630221 551441 520911 551341 170111 252329 100590 100640 110100 100620 100630 360500 630510 830910 850680 170112 520852 252329 170199 100190 100590 630900 240220 240310 100620 360500 100630 100640 Code

Code

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 31 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 16 0.7 1.086 0.186 0.658 0.4 T otal -1.7 -9.1 -0.4 -1.9 -2.5 -0.5 -2.6 -3.9 -2.8 -6.9 42.021 -497 T otal -23.1 -17.2 -25.5 -13.5 -42.3 -11.8 461.253 102.906 24,809.4 -419.1 -350.2 -148.4 -545.6 -368.6 5,058.00 -4,115.50 -7,592.60 -2,671.60 -8,173.50 -3,780.50 -27,163.90 -44,412.80 -95,329.90

0 -1 0.2 0.3 -60 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.2 -0.3 -1.4 -0.5 -0.4 -1.6 98.1

2013 -26.7 -87.2 -77.8 -637.1 -243.2 2013 0.055 0.003 -4,722.20 -1,454.90 -1,332.60 -1,339.10 -3.502 50.371 79.162 -17,962.90 -27,856.10 6,588.45

0

-1 10 0.2 0.3 -1.1 -0.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -1.4 -0.5 -0.4 -1.6 98.1 2012 -87.2 -90.6 -77.8 2012 -637.1 -243.2 0.055 0.003 -3.502 50.371 79.162 -4,132.60 -1,332.60 8,113.95 -1,304.20 -13,274.30 -17,962.90 -39,045.10 - - 0 0 -2 0.1 1.1 -40 -59 2011 -0.1 -3.1 -0.1 -0.1 -3.1 -1.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -2.35 -1.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.331 88.9 0.063 0.066 0.298 2011 -21.7 -36.2 -84.4 -10.9 640.27 770.2 77.572 -627.1 -955.6 -1,332.60 -3,018.30 -5,340.50 - - - 0 -1 0.1 -20 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -3.1 -3.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -4.6 -1.6 -0.8 -0.6 88.9 2010 2010 -2.35 0.091 -22.4 -11.3 -92.5 -59.5 -42.6 0.333 0.066 0.298 770.1 -627.1 77.572 -239.8 6,946.36 -3,717.20 -3,758.80 -3,018.30 -2,023.20 -12,790.20 - - - 0 0 0 0 -4 0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -6.7 -0.2 -0.2 -6.4 -0.4 -4.3 -3.6 10.5 2009 -89.2 -12.9 -63.6 -13.8 -716.1 -137.4 -398.3 -462.6 -306.8 2009 0.881 0.015 0.036 0.496 1,708.90 86.785 33.679 -2,910.30 -1,680.80 -2,424.60 -2,053.40 -9,577.40 2,472.10 ------0 0 0 0 0 -3 5.5 61 -0.1 -2.7 -0.4 -3.2 -5.4 -0.4 -0.3 -2.8 -536 2008 -25.7 -63.2 -12.6 2008 0.011 0.619 0.026 0.348 -215.5 -497.9 -720.6 48.307 20.046 1,808.80 -1,165.70 T able D 2: R wanda’s evenue E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Wheat nes and meslin Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Maize (corn) nes Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Worn clothing and other worn articles Raw sugar, beet Rice, broken Raw sugar, cane Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Portland cement nes Matches Bed linen, of cotton, nes Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Lithium primary cells and batteries Cigarettes containing tobacco Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Corks, crown, of base metal Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product

Product Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Corks, crown, of base metal

40221 40390 40310 40130 40120 40110 850630 850640 830910 850610 850680 850650 170111 520911 630231 551441 630221 551341 630251 630291 170112 520852 170199 100190 100590 100620 100630 252329 100640 240220 240310 360500 630900 830910 850610 850630 850650 850640 850680 C ode

Code

32 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

53 13 4.1 9.2 2.2 5.3 2.5 1.6 0.3 3.6 -6.1 16.1 16.4 20.3 -29.8 232.1 184.1 575.2 573.2 828.4 447.3 492.3 236.5 3,796.30 1,552.90 3,547.30 1,794.80 9,558.70 14,408.60 42,156.70 16,731.30 93,231.40 13,227.20 203,686.10

2 0 91 3.1 0.7 0.2 0.4 3.4 1.3 3.4 0.5 8.3 1.6 16.1 42.8 2013 405.1 106.7 115.2 105.5 421.9 634.6 -237.4 2,455.50 1,767.30 2,044.50 3,222.60 28,949.80 17,733.30

2 0 91 3.1 0.4 3.4 1.3 3.4 0.5 0.5 8.3 0.6 1.6 16.1 42.8 2012 405.1 148.2 115.2 105.5 634.6 -237.4 2,370.10 1,067.00 1,767.30 4,252.60 6,703.10 35,239.60 17,733.30 - - 0 7.1 0.1 2.7 6.1 0.1 0.2 2.4 0.5 0.5 2.3 0.5 6.3 0.6 0.6 1.8 0.8 600 -1.6 29.7 64.4 85.5 2011 100.2 625.3 131.6 186.8 -341.7 -199.8 8,756.90 1,742.00 2,193.90 3,508.00 - - - 7.1 0.1 2.7 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 2.4 0.5 2.5 5.3 0.4 6.3 0.6 0.6 1.8 141 86.7 30.8 2010 302.4 625.3 130.3 388.6 103.8 -199.8 3,424.60 2,193.90 3,507.70 1,248.10 96,055.20 84,039.60 - - - 4 9 0 -4 7.1 8.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.3 0.3 0.3 181 45.2 28.5 88.8 2009 125.7 121.2 347.4 480.3 103.3 954.5 717.6 3,467.80 2,347.60 4,814.50 9,191.80 1,521.00 2,726.10 27,295.80 ------0 0 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.4 4.3 0.5 3.6 5.6 14.1 20.5 62.9 2008 -45.2 -18.9 948.7 364.3 558.9 101.3 458.9 7,388.80 4,901.10 T able D 3: R wanda’s rade E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Worn clothing and other worn articles Primary cells & primary batteries nes Bed linen, of cotton, nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Matches Wheat nes and meslin Portland cement nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Raw sugar, beet Maize (corn) nes Raw sugar, cane Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Corks, crown, of base metal Cigarettes containing tobacco Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes

Product 40221 40390 40310 40130 40110 40120 630231 630251 630291 551441 630221 551341 520911 170111 520852 170112 252329 850680 850650 170199 850610 850630 850640 630900 830910 360500 240310 240220 100590 100620 100630 100640 100190

Code

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 33 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

13 53 4.1 2.2 2.5 9.2 3.6 0.3 1.6 5.3 -6.1 16.1 16.4 20.3 -29.8 184.1 232.1 573.2 575.2 236.5 492.3 447.3 828.4 -581.1 9,558.70 1,794.80 3,547.30 3,796.30 13,227.20 93,231.40 42,156.70 14,408.70 -16,731.30 168,089.50

2 0 91 0.7 3.1 0.2 0.5 3.4 1.6 8.3 3.4 1.3 0.4 16.1 42.8 2013 106.7 405.1 115.2 105.5 421.9 634.6 -237.4 2,044.50 3,222.60 1,767.30 2,455.50 17,733.30 28,949.80

2 0 91 3.1 0.5 0.5 3.4 1.6 0.6 8.3 3.4 1.3 0.4 16.1 42.8 2012 405.1 115.2 148.2 105.5 634.6 -237.4 4,252.60 6,703.10 1,767.30 2,370.10 -1,067.00 17,733.30 33,105.60 - - 0 0.1 6.1 0.1 7.1 2.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 6.3 0.5 0.8 2.3 0.6 2.4 0.6 1.8 600 -1.6 29.7 85.5 64.4 2011 100.2 131.6 186.8 625.3 -341.7 -199.8 2,193.90 1,742.00 1,740.90 -3,508.00 - - - 1.1 0.1 7.1 0.2 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.4 2.5 0.5 6.3 5.3 0.6 2.4 0.6 1.8 141 86.7 30.8 2010 388.6 103.8 302.4 130.3 625.3 -199.8 1,248.10 2,193.90 3,424.60 -3,507.70 84,039.60 89,039.80 - - - 0 0 4 9 -4 0.1 7.1 8.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 7.3 0.3 181 45.2 28.5 88.8 2009 125.7 121.2 954.5 347.4 103.3 717.6 480.3 2,726.10 9,191.80 1,521.00 2,347.60 3,467.80 -4,814.50 17,666.80 ------0 0 0.1 0.1 3.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 4.4 3.6 4.3 5.6 14.1 20.5 62.9 2008 -45.2 -18.9 948.7 101.3 458.9 364.3 558.9 -4,901.10 -2,413.40 T able D 4: R wanda’s rade C reation E ffects( US $ ‘000) Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Rice, broken Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Raw sugar, cane Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Maize (corn) nes Rice, husked (brown) Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Raw sugar, beet Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Wheat nes and meslin Matches Portland cement nes Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Cigarettes containing tobacco Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Worn clothing and other worn articles Lithium primary cells and batteries Corks, crown, of base metal Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product

40221 40110 40120 40130 40310 40390 170111 520911 551341 551441 630221 630231 630251 630291 170112 520852 170199 100640 100190 100630 252329 100620 100590 240220 240310 360500 630900 830910 850610 850680 850650 850630 850640 Code

34 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - -

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 - - - - -

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012 - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011 ------0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2010 - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 ------0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 T able D 5: R wanda’s rade iversion E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Maize (corn) nes Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Raw sugar, beet Raw sugar, cane Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Matches Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Portland cement nes Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Wheat nes and meslin Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Bed linen, of cotton, nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Cigarettes containing tobacco Worn clothing and other worn articles Corks, crown, of base metal Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product

40221 40390 40110 40120 40130 40310 170111 520911 551341 551441 630221 630231 630251 630291 170112 520852 170199 252329 100590 100620 100630 100640 100190 240220 360500 850640 850650 850680 630900 830910 850610 850630 Code

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 35 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

7 78 2.1 2.7 6.7 8.4 2.4 2.5 1.4 6.6 173 148 92.1 11.4 47.6 71.3 42.6 28.6 46.8 734.7 122.7 110.7 167.5 936.6 171.9 3,315.20 1,462.70 1,098.50 2,808.10 17,320.30 75,073.60 11,739.90 127,922.00 243,763.80 - -

17 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.5 0.3 0.6 1.6 0.3 9.6 0.3 0.3 3.9 189 23.6 16.6 27.6 44.3 2013 152.7 258.2 156.9 1,568.40 5,125.50 27,039.00 23,774.80 58,419.80 - - -

0 0 0 0.1 2.1 0.1 5.2 0.3 1.3 3.4 0.4 0.9 310 22.1 35.2 10.6 16.8 48.9 40.3 10.3 2012 196.1 150.3 304.4 1,084.90 5,479.40 33,974.30 29,324.20 71,021.50 - - 0 0 0 0 0 23 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.7 1.2 0.4 9.8 4.3 463 49.1 33.7 34.2 22.5 18.5 59.9 10.4 2011 157.7 415.2 142.5 103.6 125.3 6,700.80 2,224.00 23,797.40 34,404.80 - - 0 0 0 0 0 23 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.7 1.2 0.4 9.8 4.3 463 49.1 33.7 34.2 22.5 18.5 59.9 10.4 2010 157.7 415.2 142.5 103.6 125.3 6,700.80 2,224.00 23,797.40 34,404.80 0 0 0 0 0.1 5.1 3.1 0.1 8.1 0.2 9.4 0.3 4.9 4.4 0.6 0.3 5.3 82.2 20.2 33.4 28.5 36.4 23.4 13.3 16.3 2009 157.1 315.1 110.7 341.3 468.9 3,622.00 2,846.80 8,256.70 16,414.10 - 22 0.1 0.1 0.7 3.1 0.7 0.2 9.2 6.2 0.2 1.5 7.2 6.2 0.2 0.3 2.3 7.3 1.6 9.4 0.4 4.8 65.4 16.6 12.6 2008 200.7 391.2 100.2 178.4 406.6 2,167.50 2,575.70 8,081.20 14,279.80 ------

0 6 0 0 4.1 6.1 4.1 5.2 2.5 8.5 3.5 0.5 0.3 5.9 1.9 8.3 0.6 0.9 196 46.1 15.8 2007 180.6 102.8 329.9 1,775.20 7,208.70 9,913.60 - - - - - 5 0 0 0.1 1.7 0.7 3.5 0.2 6.4 2.5 0.5 1.5 9.4 0.3 2.9 2.6 1.4 6.4 2.3 4.8 2.8 94.2 80.2 25.3 69.4 2006 541.8 357.9 3,681.70 4,905.40 T able E 1: U ganda’s Welfare ffects ( US $ ‘000) Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir & ferm or acid milk cream nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Raw sugar, cane sugar, Raw Rice, husked (brown) Rice, husked Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring or colouring matter cane or beet sugar, Refined Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter sugar,in Refined Matches Portland cement nes Portland Wheat or meslin flour Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Primary cells & primary batteries nes Primary Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Bed linen, of cotton, nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Yogurt Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Air-zinc Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Toilet Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Table Product Product

40229 40110 40130 40210 40120 40390 40310 170111 170191 521151 551341 551441 630221 630231 630291 630251 170199 252329 100590 100630 100640 110100 100610 100620 240310 360500 850680 630510 850610 850660 850630 850650 850640 Code

36 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

3.4 26.5 -45.7 -31.1 -86.2 -70.5 -32.4 -17.4 -64.5 -12.4 -34.3 -841.7 -216.7 -515.2 -154.2 -272.5 -361.4 -950.5 -182.3 -804.8 -226.6 -2,952.30 -2,997.90 -5,220.70 -4,233.20 -5,399.30 -21,861.10 -42,734.50 -22,862.50 -40,147.70 -14,985.20 -176,983.90 -253,093.70 -598,362.80 -

0 3.2 -12 -20 -4.7 -6.1 -1.1 -5.6 -5.9 -0.3 -1.3 -0.8 2013 -16.2 -97.2 -19.5 -11.9 -43.8 -20.9 -942.1 -729.7 -195.5 -626.4 -124.3 -222.6 5,080.10 -1,372.40 -12,529.60 -16,171.30 -83,412.20 -111,510.10 -

0 0 3.5 -0.1 -0.1 -1.5 -4.3 -4.4 -0.8 -0.3 -912 2012 -11.1 -49.5 -14.6 -29.5 -12.9 -26.8 -138.7 -128.2 -209.5 -573.6 -370.8 -122.8 6,388.70 -9,306.90 -1,485.00 -1,653.30 -18,341.80 -97,374.10 -124,380.20 - 3.9 8.8 -31 -41 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -2.6 -4.9 -3.8 -1.4 -0.6 -6.6 -0.3 -618 2011 -16.7 -19.5 -18.5 -79.8 -326.1 -320.7 -612.6 -662.9 -127.9 1,273.10 -1,093.20 -2,245.40 -9,443.50 -1,052.80 -2,214.40 -79,005.50 -96,664.90 - 3.9 8.8 -31 -41 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -2.6 -4.9 -3.8 -1.4 -0.6 -6.6 -0.3 -618 2010 -16.7 -19.5 -18.5 -79.8 -326.1 -320.7 -612.6 -662.9 -127.9 1,273.10 -1,093.20 -2,245.40 -9,443.50 -1,052.80 -2,214.40 -79,005.50 -96,664.90 -1 -5 8.2 3.4 -96 -2.1 -0.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -4.4 -0.4 -2.8 -407 2009 -41.2 -25.5 -28.2 -24.5 -19.3 -28.3 -42.8 764.5 -515.2 -143.5 -250.4 -730.6 -151.5 -3,646.50 -1,241.90 -1,682.00 -11,554.10 -12,115.00 -27,608.70 -59,596.10 - 0.1 3.5 -46 -1.1 -0.7 -4.6 -3.6 -1.9 -4.3 -2.8 -7.9 -0.9 69.8 -558 2008 -20.1 -22.7 -21.7 -66.2 -10.4 -43.3 -38.3 -32.8 -240.5 -498.3 -203.8 -142.8 -2,388.50 -6,817.60 -1,819.40 -2,168.40 -10,912.70 -26,759.10 -52,765.10 ------

0 -3 -9 3.5 -2.1 -7.7 -0.3 -0.3 2007 -15.1 -94.7 -45.2 -21.7 -41.2 -27.5 -20.5 -83.4 -19.9 -31.9 -12.8 -68.8 417.3 -911.7 -502.4 -8,809.50 -1,753.80 -24,673.60 -36,735.40 - - - - - 0.7 1.5 4.6 -0.1 -4.7 -6.2 -0.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.3 -4.9 2006 -32.1 -31.7 -26.7 -39.2 -10.5 -30.5 -13.2 -92.4 -10.6 -28.3 -28.3 -433.2 -892.3 -339.4 -1,695.90 -1,926.40 -14,399.70 -20,046.20 T able E 2: U ganda’s R evenue ffects ( US $ ‘000) Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes fat Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Matches Portland cement nes Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/ Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/ Wheat or meslin flour Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/ Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres m2,printd m2,printd Silver oxide primary cells and batteries m2,printd Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product

40229 40110 40120 40130 40210 40310 40390 170111 170191 521151 551341 551441 630221 630231 630251 630291 170199 252329 100610 100620 100630 100640 110100 100590 240310 360500 630510 850630 850610 850640 850650 850660 850680 Code

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 37 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

11 56 489 29.7 18.1 53.1 62.6 44.8 12.8 103.5 296.1 151.8 593.5 715.6 233.2 807.9 341.6 1,096.00 2,070.10 1,001.00 6,653.90 4,719.30 6,606.80 9,152.30 9,976.50 1,292.60 1,642.00 84,539.20 19,721.00 59,180.10 22,599.80 276,860.00 455,397.70 966,528.40 -

5 2 0 13 35 1.7 5.6 3.5 2.4 0.6 88.7 29.2 11.6 12.8 59.6 31.4 2013 370.1 154.1 126.2 324.3 988.8 965.6 374.9 7,818.50 1,743.30 2,067.70 22,967.20 94,179.20 88,071.10 220,453.30 -

0 0 68 0.1 0.1 2.3 5.5 4.8 2.3 0.4 131 57.7 35.2 45.1 20.6 80.5 2012 702.7 220.2 442.6 886.3 221.8 356.3 5,886.70 1,206.80 2,741.80 2,492.70 26,360.10 118,432.00 102,453.30 262,857.00 - 29 10 0.1 1.1 9.2 0.2 2.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 9.9 966 130 30.2 26.6 2011 394.2 323.2 877.2 126.2 237.5 182.9 732.9 220.3 4,543.30 1,015.40 1,600.30 1,131.40 3,339.20 10,827.70 23,582.30 83,121.80 133,471.60 - 29 10 0.1 1.1 9.2 0.2 2.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 9.9 966 130 30.2 26.6 2010 394.2 323.2 877.2 126.2 237.5 182.9 732.9 220.3 4,543.30 1,015.40 1,600.30 1,131.40 3,339.20 10,827.70 23,582.30 83,121.80 133,471.60 25 2.7 2.5 3.4 2.4 0.6 4.4 2.3 0.8 -0.3 31.7 50.7 35.2 42.5 19.4 33.8 2009 232.1 752.7 184.2 218.2 151.5 228.2 428.6 167.5 966.9 807.9 2,392.00 8,073.20 1,885.90 2,537.10 16,449.80 13,916.40 29,106.50 78,755.60 - 7 4.1 3.4 1.4 8.6 4.4 3.5 1.6 0.6 1.6 19.2 12.4 89.6 45.3 77.5 29.6 49.4 57.6 2008 370.1 290.1 147.5 921.8 228.9 113.6 1,253.40 1,593.00 9,675.50 1,193.40 2,407.60 3,269.70 12,492.80 28,131.10 62,505.40 ------

4 0.2 0.5 0.3 3.6 7.4 4.6 153 52.1 36.7 53.5 37.6 79.6 28.9 37.4 32.6 2007 286.1 927.7 150.7 114.8 127.9 7,737.90 1,206.40 2,642.50 10,140.00 26,055.50 49,921.40 - - - - - 4 9 60 0.1 5.5 8.5 2.9 0.8 1.3 19.5 20.5 40.2 62.8 14.4 79.8 42.8 44.8 61.3 50.8 19.9 2006 975.5 135.4 626.5 102.9 644.6 3,810.10 2,911.80 15,336.60 25,092.30 T able E 3: U ganda’s rade ffect ( US $ ‘000) Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Maize (corn) nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Matches Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Portland cement nes Wheat or meslin flour Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Lithium primary cells and batteries Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product

40229 40130 40120 40390 40310 40110 40210 170111 170191 521151 551341 551441 630221 630231 630251 630291 100590 170199 252329 100610 100620 100630 110100 100640 240310 360500 630510 850610 850630 850640 850650 850660 850680 Code

38 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

11 56 489 53.1 18.1 29.7 62.6 12.8 44.8 296.1 233.2 593.5 715.6 341.6 807.9 103.5 151.8 9,152.30 4,719.30 6,606.80 6,653.90 2,070.10 9,976.50 1,292.60 1,096.00 1,001.00 1,642.00 19,721.00 84,539.20 59,180.10 22,599.80 276,860.10 455,397.70 966,528.30 -

2 5 0 35 13 1.7 3.5 5.6 2.4 0.6 88.7 59.7 29.2 31.4 11.6 12.8 2013 370.1 154.1 126.2 965.6 324.3 988.8 374.9 1,743.30 7,818.50 2,067.70 94,179.20 22,967.20 88,071.10 220,453.30 -

0 0 68 0.1 0.1 5.5 2.3 0.4 2.3 4.8 131 45.1 57.7 35.2 80.5 20.6 2012 702.7 220.2 886.3 442.6 221.8 356.3 1,206.80 2,741.80 5,886.70 2,492.70 26,360.10 118,432.00 102,453.30 262,857.00 - 29 10 0.1 1.1 0.2 9.2 0.2 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 9.9 966 130 30.2 26.6 2011 877.2 394.2 323.2 126.2 237.5 220.3 732.9 182.9 1,131.40 1,015.40 4,543.30 1,600.30 3,339.20 23,582.30 10,827.70 83,121.80 133,471.60 - 29 10 0.1 1.1 0.2 9.2 0.2 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 9.9 966 130 30.2 26.6 2010 877.2 394.2 126.2 323.2 237.5 220.3 732.9 182.9 1,131.40 1,015.40 4,543.30 1,600.30 3,339.20 23,582.30 10,827.70 83,121.80 133,471.60 25 2.7 2.5 4.4 2.4 0.6 3.4 2.3 0.8 -0.3 31.7 50.7 35.2 42.5 19.4 33.8 2009 232.1 752.7 218.2 184.2 228.2 151.5 167.5 428.6 966.9 807.9 2,392.00 8,073.20 1,885.90 2,537.10 16,449.80 13,916.40 29,106.50 78,755.60 - 7 4.1 3.5 4.4 1.4 0.6 1.6 3.4 1.6 8.6 19.2 77.5 12.4 29.6 89.6 49.4 45.3 57.6 2008 370.1 290.1 147.5 921.8 113.6 228.9 2,407.60 1,593.00 9,675.50 1,193.40 1,253.40 3,269.70 12,492.80 28,131.10 62,505.40 ------

4 0.2 0.5 7.4 0.3 3.6 4.6 153 52.1 36.7 53.5 37.4 79.6 37.6 28.9 32.6 2007 286.1 927.7 150.7 114.8 127.9 1,206.40 7,737.90 2,642.50 10,140.00 26,055.50 49,921.40 - - - - - 4 9 60 0.1 5.5 8.5 2.9 1.3 0.8 40.2 20.5 19.5 14.4 42.8 79.8 44.8 61.3 62.8 50.8 19.9 2006 626.5 975.5 644.6 135.4 102.9 3,810.10 2,911.80 15,336.60 25,092.30 T able E 4: U ganda rade C reation ffect ( US $ ‘000) Matches Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring or colouring matter cane or beet sugar, Refined Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Raw sugar, cane sugar, Raw Maize (corn) nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Rice, husked Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir & ferm or acid milk cream nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir Portland cement nes Portland Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter sugar,in Refined Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Bed linen, of cotton, nes Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Wheat or meslin flour Lithium primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Primary Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Air-zinc Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Yogurt Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Table Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Toilet Product Product

40229 40390 40310 40210 40130 40110 40120 551341 521151 170111 170191 551441 630221 630231 630251 630291 170199 252329 100630 100640 110100 360500 240310 100610 100620 100590 850650 850640 630510 850630 850610 850660 850680 C ode

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 39 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 261 2014?? 9,999.00 10,173.00 20,003.00 50,438.00 10,002.00 ------

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 ------

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012 ------0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011 ------0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2010 - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 ------0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 ------

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2007 ------0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 261 2006 9,999.00 10,173.00 20,003.00 50,438.00 10,002.00 T able E 5: U ganda rade D iversion ffects ( US $ ‘000) Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Matches Portland cement nes Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Wheat or meslin flour Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Product

40229 40110 40120 40130 40210 40310 40390 170111 170191 521151 551341 551441 630221 630231 630251 630291 170199 100590 100610 100620 252329 100630 100640 110100 240310 360500 850630 850610 630510 850640 850660 850650 850680 C ode

40 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 2 2 7 4 5 9 6 17 57 72 54 88 65 59 85 95 24 26 161 487 771 742 222 704 263 189 240 269 536 378 344 106 430 4,611 9,332 1,942 1,156 6,039 4,910 5,050 12,763 13,623 194,657 128,713 - - 1 1 1 2 2 6 0 8 6 0 4 3 8 8 0 62 57 11 22 15 75 28 22 80 73 46 50 36 132 342 223 240 266 164 2013 1,357 2,268 1,218 37,797 30,957 - 1 1 1 2 2 6 0 8 6 0 4 3 8 8 0 62 57 11 22 15 75 28 22 80 73 46 50 36 132 342 223 240 266 164 2012 1,357 2,268 1,014 1,218 38,811 30,957 - - - - 1 1 2 5 3 0 5 8 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 0 81 97 11 22 25 25 34 33 85 65 48 63 15 34 10 10 472 384 118 688 2011 2,792 1,264 31,281 24,875 - - - 1 1 1 1 1 7 2 2 9 0 8 0 0 5 8 0 9 0 61 81 22 32 57 64 60 19 15 49 25 34 50 16 691 373 2010 5,821 2,308 3,989 1,923 33,092 17,347 - - 1 1 2 2 7 2 9 2 6 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 57 31 42 61 35 76 12 12 58 30 35 89 54 10 29 40 445 500 109 2009 1,527 1,855 4,174 2,204 22,377 10,859 - - - - 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 9 11 52 37 11 45 15 29 16 48 39 79 63 19 23 507 312 103 178 954 108 2008 1,741 3,627 6,612 14,660 - - - - - 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 2 9 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 11 37 17 65 29 19 14 45 43 43 14 10 (1) 621 145 169 634 2007 1,585 6,716 10,251 - - - - - 1 7 1 1 1 2 6 2 0 0 6 3 6 0 0 8 0 0 0 41 11 42 62 12 70 10 29 34 (0) (0) (0) (0) 391 227 132 225 2006 1,296 6,389 3,763 T able F 1: anzania’s Welfare E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Product Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Primary cells & primary batteries nes Worn clothing and other worn articles Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Lithium primary cells and batteries Milk and cream nes sweetened Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Corks, crown, of base metal Maize (corn) nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Raw sugar, beet Raw sugar, cane Wheat nes and meslin Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Wheat or meslin flour Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Matches Portland cement nes Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Cigarettes containing tobacco Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Bed linen, of cotton, nes Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes C ode 40221 40291 40110 40120 40229 40130 40299 40210 40310 40390 170111 170191 520851 520951 521151 551341 551441 630221 630231 630251 630291 170112 520852 830910 850610 850640 850650 850680 850660 521215 521225 100190 100590 100620 170199 110100 100630 100640 252329 240220 360500 630900 630510

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 41 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

96 (6) (4) (22) (48) (39) (12) (35) (102) (485) (375) (548) (874) (541) (213) (943) (353) (109) (164) (289) (254) (475) (193) (220) (112) (380) (891) (235) 5,349 (3,076) (1,188) (1,658) (4,551) (9,492) (3,039) (44,795) (46,266) (10,900) (27,738) (17,055) (19,956) (19,242) (580,761) (369,316) - - 32 (9) (1) (4) (4) (3) (3) (1) (61) (59) (48) (59) (49) (38) (49) (11) (42) (27) (12) (23) (43) (20) (14) 2013 (505) (373) (168) (121) (867) (211) (100) (441) (476) 1,253 (4,983) (1,465) (9,100) (6,391) (87,196) (111,696) - 32 (9) (1) (4) (4) (3) (3) (1) (61) (59) (48) (59) (49) (38) (49) (11) (42) (27) (12) (23) (43) (20) (14) 2012 (505) (373) (168) (121) (867) (211) (100) (441) (476) 1,253 (4,983) (1,465) (9,100) (6,391) (4,357) (87,196) (116,053) ------32 (1) (2) (4) (5) (4) (3) (9) (2) (1) 826 (40) (70) (49) (19) (17) (23) (14) (76) (25) (83) (41) 2011 (432) (163) (103) (211) (121) (134) (260) (589) (762) (675) (208) (4,641) (5,967) (1,414) (85,721) (70,410) - - - - - (6) (6) (5) (2) (3) (5) (5) (8) (1) (1) 501 (59) (61) (38) (51) (23) (40) (64) (59) (10) (21) (49) 2010 (342) (141) (102) (226) (109) (146) (377) (139) (449) (7,952) (8,530) (6,846) (2,544) (19,771) (96,545) (48,853) ------(9) (3) (4) (6) (8) (4) (1) (2) 524 (67) (54) (43) (36) (11) (15) (10) (59) (28) (70) (14) (24) (38) 2009 (291) (242) (190) (177) (266) (356) (166) (276) (6,366) (3,821) (1,420) (4,714) (5,338) (14,176) (68,364) (30,582) ------(4) (1) (2) (7) (4) (4) (2) (3) (3) (3) 139 (30) (75) (15) (83) (95) (80) (21) (54) (25) (40) (39) 2008 (335) (174) (174) (179) (703) (110) (170) (290) (5,970) (4,891) (2,712) (2,240) (12,319) (49,347) (18,628) ------3 (1) (3) (5) (5) (3) (5) (1) (4) 648 (53) (43) (10) (34) (38) (76) (36) (76) (74) (93) (12) (17) (33) (11) (93) 2007 (444) (462) (299) (340) (5,427) (3,946) (33,119) (22,128) ------1 1 2 (1) (2) (6) (2) (3) (9) (9) (2) (1) (1) (1) 205 (70) (60) (22) (21) (63) (38) (46) (20) (57) 2006 (222) (200) (176) (127) (282) (162) (4,473) (8,214) (1,511) (4,323) (19,916) T able F 2: anzania’s R evenue E ffect ( US $ ‘000) Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Product Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Maize (corn) nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Worn clothing and other worn articles Lithium primary cells and batteries Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, nes Rice, broken Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Wheat nes and meslin Raw sugar, cane Portland cement nes Matches Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Raw sugar, beet Corks, crown, of base metal Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Wheat or meslin flour Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Cigarettes containing tobacco Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted

40221 40291 40229 40299 40210 40110 40120 40130 40310 40390 630291 521151 630231 630251 520951 551441 630221 551341 170111 520851 170191 520852 170112 521215 521225 630900 830910 850610 850640 850650 252329 100190 170199 850660 850680 100590 630510 100620 100610 100630 100640 110100 360500 240220 C ode

42 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

12 25 24 44 43 33 23 901 581 451 317 567 142 124 514 424 496 943 306 359 849 159 9,637 1,807 6,097 1,672 2,202 2,762 4,935 3,464 1,764 2,724 2,066 5,009 6,809 77,201 43,962 45,754 28,804 24,223 29,906 142,152 416,139 866,428 - - 2 2 5 5 4 11 61 42 45 24 56 43 19 30 10 40 221 327 667 117 244 293 276 293 109 539 118 230 2013 9,097 1,055 1,614 1,713 1,223 9,070 2,190 2,790 99,092 10,796 142,473 - 2 2 5 5 4 11 61 42 45 24 56 43 19 30 10 40 221 327 667 117 244 293 276 293 109 539 118 230 2012 9,097 1,055 1,614 1,713 1,223 7,788 9,070 2,190 2,790 99,092 10,796 150,260 - - - 1 1 2 2 5 4 9 0 0 61 41 81 37 57 12 33 56 19 68 19 20 132 455 595 215 274 256 253 649 416 119 179 280 2011 1,662 2,385 8,474 7,090 1,010 80,158 13,140 118,267 - - 7 7 2 2 2 5 6 3 8 0 0 47 97 54 24 43 48 98 19 89 49 10 251 197 302 415 425 216 418 169 438 800 270 2010 2,989 4,288 60,747 18,792 55,516 10,026 13,330 170,211 - - 1 2 4 3 3 8 0 0 0 62 62 45 15 13 13 58 10 10 30 40 411 521 677 197 344 184 186 393 253 123 183 346 388 698 2009 2,021 7,754 4,498 43,554 34,753 10,388 10,648 118,898 - - - 2 2 4 3 3 6 8 0 0 0 71 12 22 35 25 46 46 78 79 10 20 321 197 157 977 122 654 376 196 243 406 288 120 2008 3,861 1,197 1,805 9,983 3,558 21,171 37,851 83,957 ------7 2 2 5 4 6 9 9 0 0 0 0 11 31 41 75 15 75 54 73 73 18 (5) 141 382 255 204 523 143 743 229 808 108 2007 3,542 5,315 9,068 45,966 23,999 - - - - - 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 6 9 9 0 0 61 61 35 54 43 44 16 49 70 10 (1) (3) (0) (2) 621 147 415 194 323 258 260 2006 2,357 1,774 1,354 7,503 36,397 20,713 T able F 3: anzania’s rade E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Matches Rice, broken Portland cement nes Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Raw sugar, cane Raw sugar, beet Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Maize (corn) nes Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Product Primary cells & primary batteries nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Milk and cream nes sweetened Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, nes Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Wheat or meslin flour Lithium primary cells and batteries Wheat nes and meslin Worn clothing and other worn articles Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Cigarettes containing tobacco Corks, crown, of base metal Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted 850680 850650 850660 850610 850640 830910 C ode 630510 630900 630291 630231 630251 360500 630221 520951 520852 520851 521151 521225 521215 551341 551441 240220 252329 40130 40110 40310 40390 40120 40291 40299 40210 40221 40229 100640 110100 170111 170112 170191 170199 100190 100590 100620 100630

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 43 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

12 25 23 24 43 44 33 581 451 901 317 567 142 943 496 124 849 359 424 306 514 159 1,807 6,097 9,637 1,672 2,202 2,762 2,724 1,764 4,935 6,809 3,464 5,009 2,066 77,201 43,962 28,804 45,754 29,906 24,223 142,152 866,428 416,139 - - 2 2 5 5 4 11 61 42 45 43 56 24 30 40 19 10 667 221 327 117 244 293 276 109 118 293 539 230 2013 9,097 1,223 1,055 1,614 1,713 2,790 9,070 2,190 99,092 10,796 142,473 - 2 2 5 5 4 11 61 42 45 43 56 24 30 40 19 10 667 221 327 117 244 293 276 109 118 293 539 230 2012 9,097 1,223 1,055 1,614 1,713 7,788 2,790 9,070 2,190 99,092 10,796 150,260 - - - 1 1 2 2 5 9 4 0 0 61 41 81 37 57 12 19 33 19 68 56 20 132 595 274 455 253 215 179 119 256 649 416 280 2011 1,662 2,385 8,474 1,010 7,090 80,158 13,140 118,267 - - 7 7 2 2 2 5 6 8 3 0 0 47 97 43 19 98 54 24 48 89 49 10 251 197 302 415 425 438 270 800 418 216 169 2010 2,989 4,288 60,747 18,792 13,330 55,516 10,026 170,211 - - 1 2 3 4 8 3 0 0 0 62 62 15 45 58 13 10 30 13 10 40 521 197 677 411 344 184 388 393 123 186 253 183 346 698 2009 2,021 7,754 4,498 10,648 43,554 34,753 10,388 118,898 - - - 2 2 3 4 3 0 8 6 0 0 71 12 25 22 35 79 78 46 10 46 20 321 977 197 157 122 654 243 288 376 196 406 120 2008 3,861 1,197 1,805 9,983 3,558 37,851 21,171 83,957 ------7 2 2 5 4 6 0 9 9 0 0 0 41 31 11 75 75 15 73 54 73 18 (5) 141 382 743 143 808 204 256 523 229 108 2007 3,542 5,315 9,068 45,966 23,999 - - - - - 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 9 6 9 0 0 61 61 54 35 49 43 70 44 16 10 (2) (3) (0) (1) 147 621 415 194 323 260 258 2006 2,357 7,503 1,774 1,354 36,397 20,713 T able F 4: anzania’s C reation E ffect ( US $ ‘000) Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Product Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Milk and cream nes sweetened Worn clothing and other worn articles Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir ferm or acid cream nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Maize (corn) nes Rice, broken Rice, husked (brown) Corks, crown, of base metal Raw sugar, beet Maize (corn) flour Matches Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Portland cement nes Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Wheat nes and meslin Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, more than 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Wheat or meslin flour Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Cigarettes containing tobacco Air-zinc primary cells and batteries Silver oxide primary cells and batteries Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend not,flavourd contg fruit cocoa Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes C ode 830910 850610 850640 850650 850660 850680 630900 360500 520851 630221 630231 521151 521215 520852 520951 521225 630251 630291 551441 551341 240220 252329 630510 40110 40120 40130 40221 40210 40229 40291 40299 40310 40390 100190 100630 100640 100590 100620 170112 170199 110100 110220 170111 170191

44 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.05) ------0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) - - - - - 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) ------0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) ------0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) ------0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2009 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) ------0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2008 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) ------0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) ------0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) T able F 4: anzania’s D iversion E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Milk and cream powder unsweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream powder sweetened exceeding 1.5% fat Milk and cream nes sweetened Milk and cream unsweetened, nes Maize (corn) nes Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% 6% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Product Rice, broken Raw sugar, cane Refined sugar,in solid form,containg added flavourg or colourg matter Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Portland cement nes Plain weave cotton fabrics,>/=85%, not more than 100 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fabric,>/=85%, >100 g/m2 to 200 g/m2, printed Plain weave cotton fab,<85% mixd w m-m fib,more than 200 g/m2,printd Plain weave polyester staple fibre fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,>170g/m2,printd Wheat or meslin flour Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Woven fabrics of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2, printed, nes Primary cells & primary batteries nes Cigarettes containing tobacco Worn clothing and other worn articles Lithium primary cells and batteries Corks, crown, of base metal Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Table linen, of cotton, not knitted 40221 40291 40229 40299 40110 40120 40130 40210 170111 170191 520851 521151 551441 630221 630231 630251 520852 521215 521225 170199 252329 100590 100640 110100 240220 630510 630900 830910 850610 850650 850680 C ode

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 45 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

2 81 41 47 46 20 287 825 375 (37) (22) (34) (337) (491) 37,752 17,824 19,918 (112,507) 2,676,975 2,640,765 ------2 6 16 10 (0) 374 109 2013 (140) (3,236) 2,692,217 2,689,359 - - - 1 2 6 81 16 10 (0) 374 109 (10) 2012 (140) (472) 2,085 13,527 11,463 - - - - - 3 9 0 14 19 (6) (39) (15) 2011 (263) (117) (110) 3,016 (12,498) (23,096) (33,081) - 3 0 0 9 0 61 14 19 (6) 151 (15) 2010 (117) (110) 3,016 4,383 3,300 (4,512) (23,096) (16,897) - - - 1 3 3 3 68 18 10 (1) 224 (76) 2009 (172) 6,708 2,988 7,388 26,477 41,401 (2,243) - - - - 2 3 0 11 37 16 (9) (3) (56) (66) 2008 3,997 4,555 1,214 2,274 4,490 (8,470) - - - - 2 2 2 6 8 27 (1) (4) (22) (68) (30) (82) 2007 (325) (3,257) (36,804) (40,546) ------1 1 5 3 3 3 0 (5) (48) 2006 1,031 (2,898) (15,091) (16,995) T able G 1: K enya’s Welfare E ffect ( US $ ‘000) Product Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Maize (corn) nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Raw sugar, cane Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Rice, broken Portland cement nes Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Cigarettes containing tobacco Corks, crown, of base metal Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes

C ode 830910 850610 630221 630231 630251 630291 630510 551341 240220 252329 40210 100590 100610 100620 100630 170111 170199 100640

46 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 57 74 38 18 (1) (7) 117 (434) (944) (726) (495) (120) (160) 1,037 2,373 (1,277) (34,319) (52,975) (63,818) (116,859) 1,583,002 1,851,423

------0 57 18 (5) (1) (58) (98) 2013 (555) (300) 1,776,267 1,775,325 - - - - - 8 0 13 18 (5) (1) (5) (58) (98) 2012 (555) (300) (265) (4,216) (69,274) (63,810) ------51 29 (1) (6) (6) 462 225 185 384 (22) (54) (27) 2011 28,973 20,876 (9,319) - - 51 29 (1) (6) (6) (0) (2) 462 225 (22) (54) (27) 2010 (338) (514) 28,973 (9,871) (9,319) (10,122) (19,201) - - - - - 4 39 29 (2) (7) 153 (27) (29) (31) (18) 2009 (379) (762) 4,778 (14,978) (16,657) (80,829) (108,718) - - - - 61 12 (2) (3) (0) (0) 155 415 133 (23) (29) (15) (17) 2008 7,586 (30,185) (10,591) (14,007) (13,858) ------40 30 (1) 201 921 876 980 (11) (17) (68) (12) (11) (50) 2007 6,461 3,582 ------7 (8) (8) (1) (0) 322 100 (18) (17) (19) 2006 1,264 (1,612) (3,236) T able G 2: K enya’s R evenue E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Product Product Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring or colouring matter cane or beet sugar, Refined Portland cement nes Portland Raw sugar, cane sugar, Raw Bed linen, of cotton, nes Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Rice, broken Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir & ferm or acid milk cream nes Buttermilk,curdled milk & cream,kephir Maize (corn) nes Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, husked (brown) Rice, husked Cigarettes containing tobacco Corks, crown, of base metal Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Table and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Toilet

C ode 830910 850610 630231 630221 630251 630291 630510 551341 240220 252329 40130 40210 40390

170199 170111 100640 100610 100630 100590 100620

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 47 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue 7

-6 91 263 303 218 -125 -199 -126 -150 2,141 1,536 5,283 -3,184 -1,830 65,901 72,299 -21,763 207,546 204,314 -117,427 ------0 21 85 34 54 584 2013 2,397 3,175 -6736.607 -1553.282 - - - - - 3 0 21 85 34 54 -32 584 298 2012 2,397 7,584 -1,108 51,618 41,699 -1553.282 ------3 95 15 53 -32 -86 104 -691 -238 2011 16,389 -40,267 -55,878 -106046 -1814.384 -1699.236 - 4 3 0 95 15 53 -32 -86 271 104 863 -691 2010 -8,359 12,614 17,918 16,389 -55,878 -1814.384 -106046.6 - - - - - 4 -7 54 16 18 18 303 116 -468 2009 1,278 -2,271 -4,561 10,893 26,998 -21,763 151,939 141,310 - - 2 9 0 0 -6 57 17 -55 -20 101 229 -408 -570 2008 8,718 50,071 17,636 24,360 -18122.96 - -29049.56 ------9 8 -6 33 50 -41 -76 132 168 -618 -169 2007 -6,132 -4,236 -1,388 -105344.8 - -15042.87 ------5 8 0 15 14 16 33 -18 -308 2006 5,501 5,735 -37598.99 -11698.38 - T able G 3: K enya’s rade E ffects ( US $ ‘000) Primary cells & primary batteries nes Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Portland cement nes Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/ Rice, broken Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Raw sugar, cane Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Rice, husked (brown) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Product Maize (corn) nes Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Cigarettes containing tobacco Corks, crown, of base metal Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres m2,printd Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes Table linen, of cotton, not knitted

40130 40210 551341 170111 630221 630231 630291 630251 252329 170199 850680 850610 240220 830910 630510 100640 100620 100630 100610 100590 C ode

48 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

3 0 -6 30 223 298 879 -126 -425 -539 -234 1,331 3,399 1,860 6,440 -1,693 32,361 13,507 61,527 52,702 67,325 10,933 51,270 350,604 651,668 ------0 21 85 34 54 584 2013 6,737 2,397 1,553 11,465 ------3 0 21 85 34 54 -32 584 298 2012 2,397 7,584 1,553 -1,108 53,171 41,699 ------3 95 15 53 -32 -86 104 -691 -238 2011 1,699 1,814 16,389 69,293 -55,878 106,047 - - - - - 4 3 0 95 15 53 -32 -86 271 104 863 -691 2010 1,814 99,502 12,614 16,389 17,918 -55,878 106,047 - - - 0 21 53 16 30 121 379 -842 -232 -234 2009 1,331 1,022 1,214 2,370 -1,768 13,631 11,387 10,668 52,629 82,720 -22,578 151,939 ------2 9 0 0 -6 57 17 -55 -20 101 229 -570 -408 2008 8,718 17,636 18,123 24,360 29,050 97,243 ------8 9 -6 33 50 -41 -76 132 168 -169 -618 2007 -4,236 -1,388 15,043 105,345 114,255 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2006 5.105 8.296 0.413 -0.444 16.401 14.355 33.314 14.556 54,798 -18.348 -308.088 5735.233 37598.99 11698.38 T able G 4: K enya’s rade C reation E ffect ( US $ ‘000) Product Milk not concentrated and unsweetened exceeding 1% fat Milk and cream not concentrated unsweetened exceeding 6% fat Maize (corn) nes Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether not polished glazed Rice, broken Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring colouring matter Rice, husked (brown) Portland cement nes Raw sugar, cane Plain weave polyester stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cot,<=170g/m2,printd Bed linen, of cotton, printed, not knitted Bed linen, of cotton, nes Cigarettes containing tobacco Manganese dioxide primary cells and batteries Mercuric oxide primary cells and batteries Primary cells & primary batteries nes Lithium primary cells and batteries Smokg tobacco,whether o not cntg tobacco substitutes in any proportion Corks, crown, of base metal Sacks&bags,for packg of goods,of jute or other textile bast fibres Table linen, of cotton, not knitted Toilet and kitchen linen, of cotton, nes

40110 40130 40210 170111 551341 630221 630231 630251 630291 170199 252329 100610 100590 240220 240310 100630 100640 100620 630510 830910 850610 850630 850650 850680 C ode

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 49 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

EPRC RESEARCH SERIES

Listing of Research Series published since 2010 to date. Full text format of these and earlier papers can be downloaded from the EPRC website at www.eprc.or.ug

Series No. Author(s) Title Date Determinants of Domestic Food Price Isaac M.B. Shinyekwa Differentials in Uganda: 128 August 2016 Alex Thomas IJJO The Potential for and Constraints on Intra- County Trade Musa Mayanja Lwanga A Pathway to Financial Inclusion: Mobile Money 127 March 2016 Annet Adong and Individual Savings in Uganda Gemma Ahaibwe Corti Paul Lakuma Socio Economic Effects of Gambling: 126 January 2016 Miriam Katunze Evidence from Kampala City, Uganda Joseph Mawejje Joseph Mawejje Tax Revenue Effects of Sectoral Growth and 125 January 2016 Ezra Francis Munyambonera Public Expenditure in Uganda Tilak Doshi Fred Joutz The Challenges of Macroeconomic Management 124 Paul Lakuma of Natural Resource Revenues in Developing October 2015 Musa Mayanja Lwanga Countries: The Case of Uganda Baltasar Manzano Progressivity or Regressivity in Uganda’s Tax Ssewanyana N. Sarah 123 Ibrahim Kasirye System: Implications for the FY2014/15 tax June 2015 proposals Creating Youth Employment through Gemma Ahaibwe 122 Entrepreneurship Financing: May 2015 Ibrahim Kasirye The Uganda Youth Venture Capital Fund A Review of Uganda’s Public Finance Management Ezra Munyambonera 121 Reforms (2012 to 2014): April 2015 Musa Mayanja Lwanga Are the Reforms Yielding the Expected Outcomes? Joseph Mawejje Inflation Dynamics and Agricultural Supply Shocks 120 March 2015 Musa Mayanja Lwanga in Uganda Munyambonera F. Ezra, Uganda’s Tea Sub-sector: A comparative Review of 119 Corti Paul Lakuma, September 2014 Trends, Challenges and Coordination Failures Madina Guloba Uganda’s progress towards poverty reduction Sarah N. Ssewanyana and during the last decade 2002/3-2012/13: Is the 118 June 2014 Ibrahim Kasirye gap between leading and lagging areas widening or narrowing? Mayanja Lwanga Musa and Macroeconomic Effects of Budget Deficits in 117 June 2014 Mawejje Joseph Uganda: A VAR-VECM Approach Adong Annet, Muhumuza Tony Smallholder Food Crop Commercialization in 116 June 2014 and Mbowa Swaibu Uganda: Panel Survey Evidence Implementing Universal Secondary Education Policy Barungi Mildred, Wokadala 115 In Uganda: How Has The Public-Private Partnership May 2014 James and Kasirye Ibrahim Performed?

50 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Series No. Author(s) Title Date Mwaura Francis, Okoboi Geofrey Determinants of Household’s Choice of Cooking 114 April 2014 and Ahaibwe Gemma Energy in Uganda Tax Evasion, Informality And The Business 113 Mawejje Joseph December 2013 Environment In Uganda Trade Creation And Diversion Effects Of The East Shinyekwa Isaac & Othieno 112 African Community Regional Trade Agreement: A December 2013 Lawrence Gravity Model Analysis. Accelerating Growth And Maintaining Mawejje Joseph & Bategeka 111 Intergenerational Equity Using Oil Resources In December 2013 Lawrence Uganda. Bategeka Lawrence et ; UN Overcoming The Limits Of Institutional Reforms In 110 September 2013 Wider Uganda Munyambonera Ezra Nampewo Access And Use Of Credit In Uganda: Unlocking The 109 Dorothy , Adong Annet & June 2013 Dilemma Of Financing Small Holder Farmers. Mayanja Lwanga Musa Ahaibwe Gemma & Kasirye HIV/AIDS Prevention Interventions In Uganda: A 108 June 2013 Ibrahim Policy Simulation. Barungi Mildred & Kasirye Improving Girl’s Access To Secondary Schooling 107 June 2013 Ibrahim A Policy Simulation For Uganda Ahaibwe Gemma, Mbowa Youth Engagement In Agriculture In Uganda: 106 Swaibu & Mayanja Lwanga June 2013 Challenges And Prospects. Musa Macroeconomic And Sectoral Effects Of The EAC Shinyekwa Isaac & Mawejje 105 Regional Integration On Uganda: A Recursive May 2013 Joseph Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Economic And Social Upgrading In The Mobile 104 Shinyekwa Isaac May 2013 Telecommunications Industry: The Case Of MTN. Economic And Social Upgrading In Tourism Global 103 Mwaura Francis May 2013 Production Networks: Findings From Uganda. Constraints To Agricultural Technology Adoption 102 Kasirye Ibrahim In Uganda: Evidence From The 2005/06-2009/10 May 2013 Uganda National Panel Survey. Bategeka Lawrence, Institutional Constraints To Agriculture Development 101 Kiiza Julius & May 2013 In Uganda. Kasirye Ibrahim Comparing The Performance Of Uganda’s Intra-East Shinyekwa Isaac & 100 African Community Trade And Other Trading Blocs: A April 2013 Othieno Lawrence Gravity Model Analysis. The Impact Of The National Agricultural Advisory Okoboi Geoffrey Kuteesa 99 Services Program On Household Production And March 2013 Annette &Barungi Mildred Welfare In Uganda. What Factors Determine Membership To Farmer Adong Annet, Mwaura Francis 98 Groups In Uganda? Evidence From The Uganda January 2013 &Okoboi Geoffrey Census Of Agriculture 2008/9. The Political Context Of Financing Infrastructure 97 Tukahebwa B. Geoffrey Development In Local Government: Lessons From December 2012 Local Council Oversight Functions In Uganda. Ssewanyana Sarah Causes Of Health Inequalities In Uganda: Evidence 96 & October 2012 From The Demographic And Health Surveys. Kasirye Ibrahim

Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC 51 Assessment of the Effect of the EAC Common External Tariff Sensitive Products List on the Performance of Domestic Industries, Welfare, Trade and Revenue

Series No. Author(s) Title Date HIV/AIDS Sero-Prevalence And Socioeconomic October 2012 95 Kasirye Ibrahim Status: Evidence From Uganda. Poverty And Inequality Dynamics In Uganda: 94 Ssewanyana Sarah and Kasirye Insights From The Uganda National Panel Surveys September 2012 Ibrahim 2005/6 And 2009/10. Othieno Lawrence & Dorothy Opportunities And Challenges In Uganda’s Trade In 93 July 2012 Nampewo Services. East African Regional Integration: Challenges In 92 Kuteesa Annette Meeting The Convergence Criteria For Monetary June 2012 Union: A Survey. Mwaura Francis and Reviewing Uganda’s Tourism Sector For Economic 91 June 2012 Ssekitoleko Solomon And Social Upgrading. A Scoping Study Of The Mobile Telecommunications 90 Shinyekwa Isaac June 2012 Industry In Uganda. Mawejje Joseph Uganda’s Electricity Sector Reforms And 89 Munyambonera Ezra June 2012 Institutional Restructuring. Bategeka Lawrence Okoboi Geoffrey and Barungi Constraints To Fertiliser Use In Uganda: Insights 88 June 2012 Mildred From Uganda Census Of Agriculture 2008/09. Othieno Lawrence Shinyekwa Prospects And Challenges In The Formation Of The 87 November 2011 Isaac COMESA-EAC And SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area. Ssewanyana Sarah, Cost Benefit Analysis Of The Uganda Post Primary 86 Okoboi Goeffrey & Education And Training Expansion And Improvement June 2011 Kasirye Ibrahim (PPETEI) Project. Cost-Effectiveness Of Water Interventions: The Case Barungi Mildred 85 For Public Stand-Posts And Bore-Holes In Reducing June 2011 & Kasirye Ibrahim Diarrhoea Among Urban Households In Uganda. Cost Effectiveness Of Malaria Control Programmes Kasirye Ibrahim & In Uganda: The Case Study Of Long Lasting 84 June 2011 Ahaibwe Gemma Insecticide Treated Nets (LLINs) And Indoor Residual Spraying. Performance And Survival Of Ugandan 83 Buyinza Faisal Manufacturing Firms In The Context Of The East September 2011 African Community. Wokadala James, Nyende Public Spending In The Water Sub-Sector In Uganda: 82 Magidu, Guloba Madina & November 2011 Evidence From Program Budget Analysis. Barungi Mildred Bategeka Lawrence & Matovu Oil Wealth And Potential Dutch Disease Effects In June 2011 81 John Mary Uganda. Shinyekwa Isaac &Othieno Uganda’s Revealed Comparative Advantage: The September 80 Lawrence Evidence With The EAC And China. 2011 Trade, Revenues And Welfare Effects Of The EAC Othieno Lawrence & Shinyekwa 79 Customs Union On Uganda: An Application Of Wits- April 2011 Isaac Smart Simulation Model. Righting Resources-Curse Wrongs In Uganda: The Kiiza Julius, Bategeka Lawrence 78 Case Of Oil Discovery And The Management Of July 2011 & Ssewanyana Sarah Popular Expectations.

52 Economic Policy Research Centre - EPRC

51, Pool Road, Makerere University Campus, P. O. Box 7841 Kampala, Uganda Tel: +256414541023/4 Fax: +256414541022 Email: [email protected], www.eprcug.org TWITTER:@EPRC_official www.facebook.com/EPRCUganda eprcug.org/blog