Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2016-2017
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Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2016–2017 Report 63 September 2017 Cenan Al-Ekabi Short title: ESPI Report 63 ISSN: 2218-0931 (print), 2076-6688 (online) Published in September 2017 Editor and publisher: European Space Policy Institute, ESPI Schwarzenbergplatz 6 • 1030 Vienna • Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel. +43 1 7181118-0; Fax -99 Rights reserved – No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “Source: ESPI Report 63; September 2017. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. ESPI is not responsible for any losses, injury or damage caused to any person or property (including under contract, by negligence, product liability or otherwise) whether they may be direct or indirect, special, incidental or consequential, resulting from the information contained in this publication. Design: Panthera.cc ESPI Report 63 2 September 2017 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2016–2017 Table of Contents Introduction 5 1. Global Political and Economic Trends 6 1.2 Global Economic Outlook 6 1.2 Political Developments 6 1.2.1 Geopolitics 6 1.2.2 Environment 8 1.2.3 Energy 8 1.2.4 Resources 9 1.2.5 Knowledge 10 1.2.6 Mobility 11 2. Global Space Economy 13 2.1 Global Space Budgets and Revenue 13 2.2 Overview of Institutional Space Budgets 13 2.3 Overview of Commercial Space Markets 17 2.3.1 Satellite Services 17 2.3.2 Satellite Manufacturing 18 2.3.3 Launch Sector 19 2.3.4 Ground Equipment 21 2.3.5 Insurance Sector 22 2.4 Sectoral Overview 22 2.4.1 Launch Sector 22 2.4.2 Manufacturing Sector 26 2.5 International Sectoral Comparison 30 2.5.1 Launch Sector 30 2.6 State of the European Industry 41 3. Space Industry Evolutions 45 3.1 Europe 46 3.2 United States 49 3.3 Russia 52 3.4 Japan 52 3.5 China 53 3.6 India 53 3.7 Rest of the World 54 4. European Institutional Market 56 4.1 Civilian Space Expenditure 56 4.2 European Space Agency 57 4.3 EUMETSAT 60 4.4 National Agencies 62 4.4.1 France 62 4.4.2 Germany 63 4.4.3 Italy 63 4.5 European Union 63 ESPI Report 63 3 September 2017 5. The Defence Perspective 65 5.1 Trends in Military Expenditure 65 5.2 Europe 65 5.3 United States 66 5.4 Russia 67 5.5 China 67 5.6 Japan 68 5.7 India 68 5.8 North Korea 69 6. Space Policies and Strategies around the World 70 6.1 European Union 70 6.2 European Space Agency 71 6.3 EUMETSAT 72 6.4 National Governments 73 6.4.1 France 73 6.4.2 Germany 74 6.4.3 Italy 74 6.4.4 United Kingdom 75 6.5 United States 76 6.5.1 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 76 6.5.2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 77 6.6 Canada 77 6.7 Russia 78 6.8 Japan 79 6.9 China 79 6.10 India 80 List of Acronyms 81 Acknowledgements 86 About the Author 86 ESPI Report 63 4 September 2017 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2016–2017 Introduction When reading this issue of Space Policy, institutional data, for instance on defence Issues and Trends it should be kept in mind spending. that there are remarkable variations and lack Notwithstanding the many data uncertainties, of consistency in the publicly available figures this issue of Space Policy, Issues and Trends on space activity. This is attributable to identifies important trends and developments. differing methodologies used by data As Winston Churchill noted, statistics must be providers, currency conversion issues, and taken with a grain of salt, yet purely by looking time period variances. The lack of consistency at relativities much can be learned. starts at the very top, where there can be differences of tens of billions of Euros between This is not a reason to be complacent about estimates of the overall size of the global the precision of figures. Space has great space economy; and it continues down to societal importance and the space community company-to-company comparisons, where owes it to political decision makers to be able different accounting practices produce to provide standardised, accurate figures. In different sums. But it is, of course, this aspect, the United States is clearly ahead commonplace that differences in purchasing of the game, and Europe must perhaps power in different economies, and differences consider whether institutions such as Eurostat in wage and infrastructure cost make one-to- should not become more involved in data one comparisons very difficult. Also, some collection and processing for the space field. countries are very restrictive in providing ESPI Report 63 5 September 2017 1. Global Political and Economic Trends showed the most growth, increasing by 3.6% in 2016 and 3.8% in 2015; growth in output 1.2 Global Economic Outlook was expected to increase by 4.4% in 2017 and 4.7% in 2018. Developing economies have The “World Economic Situation and Prospects” remained the fastest growing, driven mainly report is the United Nation’s lead publication by India, China and other East and South in the annual discussion of current economic Asian economies; African economies also trends and prospects. In 2016, the global continued to show positive growth, while economy appeared stuck in a prolonged period South American economies continued to show of slow economic growth and dwindling weak performance for 2016.3 international trade growth, with both rates at WGP was expected to increase by 2.7% in their lowest since the 2009 recession that 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, due mainly to the followed the financial crisis. World Gross stabilization from some short-term shocks that Product (WGP) had dropped to 2.2% in 2016, had restrained growth in 2016, such as the below the average rate of 2.5% since 2012, non-farm inventory destocking cycle and and well-below the 3.4% growth rate observed contractions in oil-related sector investment in in the decade before the crisis, with the the U.S. and sharp terms-of-trade shock sluggishness characterized by diminished experienced by commodities exporters. Rather productivity growth, increased levels of debt, than signalling a revival of the economy, as low commodity prices and continued conflict the factors underpinning sluggish economic and geopolitical tensions.1 growth tend to be self-reinforcing and will WGP growth in developed economies dropped likely prolong the slowdown, this relatively low to 1.5% in 2016 from 2.1% growth in 2015; rate of growth risks hampering progress moreover, growth in output was expected to toward achieving the Sustainable remain below 2% for 2017 and 2018. In the Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Eurozone, new EU Members showed the most Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable growth at 3.0%, while Western European Development which aims to eradicate extreme economies continued with 1.7% for 2016; poverty and create decent work for all.4 overall, growth in the European Union had decreased to 1.8% in 2016 from 2.2% in 2015, and it was expected to remain steady for the upcoming years. U.S. growth in global 1.2 Political Developments output dropped to 1.5% in 2016 from 2.6% in 2015, but was expected to increase to 1.9% in 1.2.1 Geopolitics 2017 and 2.0% in 2018. Japan’s global output also increased by 0.5% in 2016, lowering by Several significant world events in 2016 are 0.1 from the 0.6% growth in output in 2015; likely to continue into 2017. its output growth was expected to increase to On 23 June 2016, UK citizens voted to end the 0.9% for 2017 and 2018.2 UK’s membership of the European Union (EU). Growth in transition economies declined for Despite a narrow split where 51.9% of voters the second consecutive year, contracting by (mainly in rural parts of England and Wales) 0.2% in 2016 after a previous contraction of chose to leave, and 48.1% of voters (mainly 2.8% in 2015, but was expected to increase Scotland and North Ireland) chose to remain5, by 1.4% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018, driven and a November 2016 High Court ruling that mainly by increased performance in South- the British Government must get Parliament’s Eastern Europe. Developing economies approval before the ‘Brexit’ process could begin6, the UK’s separation from the EU seems 1 “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2017.” 17 Jan. 4 Ibid. at 1-38. 2017. United Nations 16 Mar. 2017 5 “EU Referendum – Results.” BBC News 17 Aug. 2017 <https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-con- <http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/re- tent/uploads/sites/45/publication/2017wesp_full_en.pdf>. sults>. 2 Ibid. at 3. 6 Castle, Stephen, and Steven Erlanger. “‘Brexit’ Will Re- 3 Ibid. quire a Vote in Parliament, U.K. Court Rules.” 3 Nov. 2016. ESPI Report 63 6 September 2017 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2016–2017 imminent. In order for the UK to withdraw wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, to pull out of from the EU, it must trigger Article 50 of the major U.S. trade agreements, to review the Treaty on European Union (TEU). Article 50 is benefit of the NATO alliance, and to take a triggered when an EU Member State has tougher line with China and a softer line with notified the European Council of its intent to Russia.