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Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030

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Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030 Courtesy Translation in English Provided by the Translation Services of the European Commission PORTUGAL INTEGRATED NATIONAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE PLAN 2021-2030 December 2018 NECP 2030 Table of contents 1. OVERVIEW AND PROCESS FOR ESTABLISHING THE PLAN .................................................................................... 7 1.1. Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 7 1.2. Overview of the current policy situation ........................................................................................................... 10 1.3. Consultations and involvement of national and EU entities and their outcome ............................................... 14 1.4. Regional cooperation in preparing the plan ...................................................................................................... 17 2. NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND TARGETS ............................................................................................................... 18 2.1. Dimension Decarbonisation ............................................................................................................................... 18 2.2. Dimension Energy efficiency .............................................................................................................................. 21 2.3. Dimension Energy security ................................................................................................................................ 23 2.4. Dimension Internal Energy Market .................................................................................................................... 25 2.5. Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness ..................................................................................... 30 3. POLICIES AND MEASURES PLANNED.................................................................................................................. 31 3.1. Dimension Decarbonisation ............................................................................................................................... 31 3.2. Dimension Energy efficiency .............................................................................................................................. 35 3.3. Dimension Energy security ................................................................................................................................ 38 3.4. Dimension Internal energy market .................................................................................................................... 39 3.5. Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness ..................................................................................... 43 4. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES .................................... 105 4.1. Projected evolution of main exogenous factors influencing energy system and GHG emission developments 105 4.2. Decarbonisation dimension ............................................................................................................................. 107 4.3. Dimension Energy efficiency ............................................................................................................................ 117 4.4. Dimension Energy security .............................................................................................................................. 126 4.5. Dimension Internal Energy Market .................................................................................................................. 136 4.6. Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness ................................................................................... 149 5. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES ...................................................................... 105 5.1. Impacts of planned policies and measures on the energy system and on GHG emissions and removals, including comparison with projections based on existing policies and measures .......................................... 105 5.2. Macroeconomic impacts and, as far as it is viable, on health, the environment, employment, education, social competences and impacts, including transitory aspects ................................................................................. 107 5.3. Overview of investment needs ........................................................................................................................ 107 5.4. Impacts of planned policies and measures in other Member States and on regional cooperation ................ 107 List of tables Table 1 - Portuguese targets for the 2030 horizon 9 Table 2 - National targets for GHG emissions in Portugal for the 2030 horizon 18 Table 3 - Indicative trajectory and contribution to the binding target of the Union of a minimum of 32% in renewable energy by 2030 19 Table 4 - Estimated trajectories for renewables in Portugal for the 2030 horizon 19 Table 5 - Total effective contribution (installed capacity) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Electricity sector (GW) for the 2030 horizon [Source: DGEG] 20 Table 6 - Total effective contribution (Final Energy Consumption) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Heating and Cooling sector (ktoe) for the 2030 horizon [Source: DGEG] 20 Table 7 - Total effective contribution (Final Energy Consumption) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Transport sector (ktoe) for the 2030 horizon [Source: DGEG] 20 Table 8 - Estimated trajectories for the production of bioenergy, broken down into heat, electricity and transport (ktoe) for the 2030 horizon [Source: DGEG] 21 Table 9 - The indicative national energy efficiency contribution to achieving the Union's binding energy efficiency target of 32.5% by 2030 (Mtoe) 21 Table 10 - The cumulative amount of energy savings to be achieved over the period 2021-2030 under Article 7 on energy saving obligations of Directive 2012/27/EU [version as amended in accordance with proposal COM(2016)761] 22 Table 11 - Forecast indicative minimum values of the commercial capacity of the interconnection [Source: REN] 25 Table 12 - Evolution in the macroeconomic assumptions relating to the GDP variation rate and population (Millions of inhabitants) in Portugal in the 2020-2030 period 105 Table 13 - Forecasts for the evolution in the prices of main energy products and CO2 106 Table 14 - Projection of GHG Emissions (kt CO2 eq.) - Scenario Existing Policies 111 Table 15 - Potential GHG emissions reduction with respect to 2005 (%) - Existing Policies Scenario 112 Table 16 - Evolution in the share of renewable sources in gross final energy consumption in Portugal [Source: DGEG/Eurostat] 113 Table 17 - Evolution of renewable energy contribution by each sector to final energy consumption (ktoe) [Source: DGEG/Eurostat] 113 Table 18 - Total effective contribution (installed capacity) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Electricity sector (MW) [Source: DGEG/Eurostat] 114 Table 19 - Total effective contribution (gross electricity production) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Electricity sector (GWh) [Source: DGEG/Eurostat] 114 Table 20 - Total effective contribution (Final Energy Consumption) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Heating and Cooling sector (ktoe) [Source: DGEG/Eurostat] 115 Table 21 - Total effective contribution (Final energy consumption) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Transport sector (ktoe) [Source: DGEG/Eurostat] 115 Table 22 - Projections based on current policies and measures, until 2040, in final gross energy consumption in Portugal [Source: DGEG] 115 Table 23 - Projections based on current policies and measures, until 2040, of the contribution of renewable energies in each sector for final energy consumption. DGEG] 116 Table 24 - Projections based on current policies and measures, until 2040, of the total effective contribution of (installed capacity) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Electricity sector. DGEG] 116 Table 25 - Projections based on current policies and measures, until 2040, of the total effective contribution of (final energy consumption) of each renewable energy technology in Portugal in the Heating and Cooling sector (ktoe) [Source: DGEG] 116 Table 26 - Projections based on current policies and measures, until 2040, of the total effective contribution (final energy consumption) of each renewable energy technology in the Transport sector (ktoe) [Source: DGEG/Eurostat] 116 Table 27 - Total Primary Energy Consumption in Portugal (ktoe) [Source: DGEG] 117 Table 28 - Energy intensity of the economy in final energy per sector of activity in Portugal (toe/M€ 2011) [Source: DGEG/INE] 121 Table 29 - Calculation of heating and cooling power to be supplied by cogeneration [Source: DGEG, Study on High- efficiency Cogeneration in Portugal, 2016] 123 Table 30 - Forecast evolution in total primary energy consumption in Portugal. Scenario Existing Policies [Source: DGEG] 125 3 Table 31 - Forecast for Final Energy Consumption per type and source and per sector of activity in Portugal (ktoe): Scenario Existing Policies [Source: DGEG] 125 Table 32 - - Imports, Exports and Energy Import Balance in Portugal (ktoe) [Source: DGEG] 127 Table 33- Domestic energy production in Portugal per type of source (ktoe) [Source: DGEG] 129 Table 34 - Gross Electricity
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