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National Academy Elects IMS Fellows Have You Voted Yet?
Volume 38 • Issue 5 IMS Bulletin June 2009 National Academy elects IMS Fellows CONTENTS The United States National Academy of Sciences has elected 72 new members and 1 National Academy elects 18 foreign associates from 15 countries in recognition of their distinguished and Raftery, Wong continuing achievements in original research. Among those elected are two IMS Adrian Raftery 2 Members’ News: Jianqing Fellows: , Blumstein-Jordan Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Center Fan; SIAM Fellows for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, and Wing Hung Wong, Professor 3 Laha Award recipients of Statistics and Professor of Health Research and Policy, 4 COPSS Fisher Lecturer: Department of Statistics, Stanford University, California. Noel Cressie The election was held April 28, during the business 5 Members’ Discoveries: session of the 146th annual meeting of the Academy. Nicolai Meinshausen Those elected bring the total number of active members 6 Medallion Lecture: Tony Cai to 2,150. Foreign associates are non-voting members of the Academy, with citizenship outside the United States. Meeting report: SSP Above: Adrian Raftery 7 This year’s election brings the total number of foreign 8 New IMS Fellows Below: Wing H. Wong associates to 404. The National Academy of Sciences is a private 10 Obituaries: Keith Worsley; I.J. Good organization of scientists and engineers dedicated to the furtherance of science and its use for general welfare. 12-3 JSM program highlights; It was established in 1863 by a congressional act of IMS sessions at JSM incorporation signed by Abraham Lincoln that calls on 14-5 JSM tours; More things to the Academy to act as an official adviser to the federal do in DC government, upon request, in any matter of science or 16 Accepting rejections technology. -
It Has Often Been Said That Studying the Depths of the Sea Is Like Hovering In
It has often been said that studying the depths of the sea is like hovering in a balloon high above an unknown land which is hidden by clouds, for it is a peculiarity of oceanic research that direct observations of the abyss are impracticable. Instead of the complete picture which vision gives, we have to rely upon a patiently put together mosaic representation of the discoveries made from time to time by sinking instruments and appliances into the deep. (Murray & Hjort, 1912: 22) Figure 1: Portrait of the H.M.S. Challenger. Prologue: Simple Beginnings In 1872, the H.M.S Challenger began its five- year journey that would stretch across every ocean on the planet but the Arctic. Challenger was funded for a single reason; to examine the mysterious workings of the ocean below its surface, previously unexplored. Under steam power, it travelled over 100,000 km and compiled 50 volumes of data and observations on water depth, temperature and conditions, as well as collecting samples of the seafloor, water, and organisms. The devices used to collect this data, while primitive by today’s standards and somewhat imprecise, were effective at giving humanity its first in-depth look into the inner workings of the ocean. By lowering a measured rope attached to a 200 kg weight off the edge of the ship, scientists estimated the depth of the ocean. A single reading could take up to 80 minutes for the weight to reach bottom. Taking a depth measurement also necessitated that the Challenger stop moving, and accurate mapping required a precise knowledge of where the ship was in the world, using navigational tools such as sextants. -
PDF— Granite-Greenstone Belts Separated by Porcupine-Destor
C G E S NT N A ER S e B EC w o TIO ok N Vol. 8, No. 10 October 1998 es st t or INSIDE Rel e • 1999 Section Meetings ea GSA TODAY Rocky Mountain, p. 25 ses North-Central, p. 27 A Publication of the Geological Society of America • Honorary Fellows, p. 8 Lithoprobe Leads to New Perspectives on 70˚ -140˚ 70˚ Continental Evolution -40˚ Ron M. Clowes, Lithoprobe, University -120˚ of British Columbia, 6339 Stores Road, -60˚ -100˚ -80˚ Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada, 60˚ Wopmay 60˚ [email protected] Slave SNORCLE Fred A. Cook, Department of Geology & Thelon Rae Geophysics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Nain Province AB T2N 1N4, Canada 50˚ ECSOOT John N. Ludden, Centre de Recherches Hearne Pétrographiques et Géochimiques, Taltson Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, Cedex, France AB Trans-Hudson Orogen SC THOT LE WS Superior Province ABSTRACT Cordillera AG Lithoprobe, Canada’s national earth KSZ o MRS 40 40 science research project, was established o Grenville Province in 1984 to develop a comprehensive Wyoming Penokean GL -60˚ understanding of the evolution of the -120˚ Yavapai Province Orogen Appalachians northern North American continent. With rocks representing 4 b.y. of Earth -100˚ -80˚ history, the Canadian landmass and off- Phanerozoic Proterozoic Archean shore margins provide an exceptional 200 Ma - present 1100 Ma 3200 - 2650 Ma opportunity to gain new perspectives on continental evolution. Lithoprobe’s 470 - 275 Ma 1300 - 1000 Ma 3400 - 2600 Ma 10 study areas span the country and 1800 - 1600 Ma 3800 - 2800 Ma geological time. A pan-Lithoprobe syn- 1900 - 1800 Ma 4000 - 2500 Ma thesis will bring the project to a formal conclusion in 2003. -
Memorial to Sir Harold Jeffreys 1891-1989 JOHN A
Memorial to Sir Harold Jeffreys 1891-1989 JOHN A. HUDSON and ALAN G. SMITH University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England Harold Jeffreys was one of this century’s greatest applied mathematicians, using mathematics as a means of under standing the physical world. Principally he was a geo physicist, although statisticians may feel that his greatest contribution was to the theory of probability. However, his interest in the latter subject stemmed from his realization of the need for a clear statistical method of analysis of data— at that time, travel-time readings from seismological stations across the world. He also made contributions to astronomy, fluid dynamics, meteorology, botany, psychol ogy, and photography. Perhaps one can identify Jeffreys’s principal interests from three major books that he wrote. His mathematical skills are displayed in Methods of Mathematical Physics, which he wrote with his wife Bertha Swirles Jeffreys and which was first published in 1946 and went through three editions. His Theory o f Probability, published in 1939 and also running to three editions, espoused Bayesian statistics, which were very unfashionable at the time but which have been taken up since by others and shown to be extremely powerful for the analysis of data and, in particular, image enhancement. However, the book for which he is probably best known is The Earth, Its Origin, History and Physical Consti tution, a broad-ranging account based on observations analyzed with care, using mathematics as a tool. Jeffreys’s scientific method (now known as Inverse Theory) was a logical process, clearly stated in another of his books, Scientific Inference. -
Alfred Wegener's Hypothesis on Continental Drift and Its Discussion in Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Electronic Publication Information Center Polarforschung 75 (1), 29 – 35, 2005 (erschienen 2006) Alfred Wegener’s Hypothesis on Continental Drift and Its Discussion in Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen (1912 – 1942) by Imre Josef Demhardt1 Abstract: Certainly not the first to notice the obvious key-and-lock shape of crossed when the famous first publication of Wegener’s hypo- Brazil and Africa, in 1911 the meteorologist Alfred Wegener was nevertheless thesis on continental drift appeared in the April and May among the first scientists to link hitherto isolated scientific arguments to these empirical observation and develop a hypothesis conclusively explaining the issues of PGM 1912. Given this double anniversary, it might architecture of the Earth’s surface which over the years evolved into an intense be timely to recall some of the circumstances, which led to this debate with his adversaries. Although cautioned by his colleague and father- publication and to shed some light on probably little known in-law Wladimir Köppen not to interfere with the discussion of geological matters as a meteorologist – and therefore as an outsider – he presented his aspects of the debate it triggered in the columns of this leading thoughts to the “Geologische Vereinigung” in Frankfurt am Main on 6 January geographical journal in the three decades thereafter. 1912 and first published them in ‘Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen’, one of the leading geographical monthlies of international reputation, in April 1912 in a paper entitled “Die Entstehung der Kontinente” (The Origin of the Alfred Wegener (1880-1930, Fig. -
Probing the Earth's Deep Interior Through Geochemistry
Probing the Earth’s Deep Interior Through Geochemistry White, W. M. (2015). Probing the Earth’s Deep Interior through Geochemistry. Geochemical Perspectives, 4(2), 95-251. European Association of Geochemistry Version of Record http://cdss.library.oregonstate.edu/sa-termsofuse Volume 4, number 2 | October 2015 Probing the Earth’s Deep Interior Through Geochemistry WILLIAM M. WHITE WILLIAM Each issue of Geochemical Perspectives pre- sents a single article with an in-depth view Editorial Board on the past, present and future of a field of geochemistry, seen through the eyes of highly Liane G. BenninG respected members of our community. The GFZ Postdam, Germany articles combine research and history of the University of Leeds, UK field’s development and the scientist’s opinions about future directions. We welcome personal glimpses into the author’s scientific life, how Janne BLicHerT-TofT ideas were generated and pitfalls along the way. ENS Lyon, France Perspectives articles are intended to appeal to the entire geochemical community, not only to experts. They are not reviews or monographs; they go beyond the current state of the art, im lliott providing opinions about future directions and T e University of Bristol, UK impact in the field. Copyright 2015 European Association of Geochemistry, EAG. All rights reserved. This journal and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copy- right by the EAG. The following terms and conditions eric H. oeLkers apply to their use: no part of this publication may be University College London, UK reproduced, translated to another language, stored CNRS Toulouse, France in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, graphic, mechanical, photo- copying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission of the publisher. -
A Parsimonious Tour of Bayesian Model Uncertainty
A Parsimonious Tour of Bayesian Model Uncertainty Pierre-Alexandre Mattei Université Côte d’Azur Inria, Maasai project-team Laboratoire J.A. Dieudonné, UMR CNRS 7351 e-mail: [email protected] Abstract: Modern statistical software and machine learning libraries are enabling semi-automated statistical inference. Within this context, it appears eas- ier and easier to try and fit many models to the data at hand, thereby reversing the Fisherian way of conducting science by collecting data after the scientific hypothesis (and hence the model) has been determined. The renewed goal of the statistician becomes to help the practitioner choose within such large and heterogeneous families of models, a task known as model selection. The Bayesian paradigm offers a systematized way of as- sessing this problem. This approach, launched by Harold Jeffreys in his 1935 book Theory of Probability, has witnessed a remarkable evolution in the last decades, that has brought about several new theoretical and methodological advances. Some of these recent developments are the focus of this survey, which tries to present a unifying perspective on work carried out by different communities. In particular, we focus on non-asymptotic out-of-sample performance of Bayesian model selection and averaging tech- niques, and draw connections with penalized maximum likelihood. We also describe recent extensions to wider classes of probabilistic frameworks in- cluding high-dimensional, unidentifiable, or likelihood-free models. Contents 1 Introduction: collecting data, fitting many models . .2 2 A brief history of Bayesian model uncertainty . .2 3 The foundations of Bayesian model uncertainty . .3 3.1 Handling model uncertainty with Bayes’s theorem . -
Quantification of Water in Hydrous Ringwoodite
ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE published: 28 January 2015 EARTH SCIENCE doi: 10.3389/feart.2014.00038 Quantification of water in hydrous ringwoodite Sylvia-Monique Thomas 1*,StevenD.Jacobsen2, Craig R. Bina 2, Patrick Reichart 3, Marcus Moser 3, Erik H. Hauri 4, Monika Koch-Müller 5,JosephR.Smyth6 and Günther Dollinger 3 1 Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV, USA 2 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA 3 Department für Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik LRT2, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Neubiberg, Germany 4 Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC, USA 5 Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany 6 Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA Edited by: Ringwoodite, γ-(Mg,Fe)2SiO4, in the lower 150 km of Earth’s mantle transition zone Mainak Mookherjee, Cornell (410–660 km depth) can incorporate up to 1.5–2wt% H2O as hydroxyl defects. We University, USA present a mineral-specific IR calibration for the absolute water content in hydrous Reviewed by: ringwoodite by combining results from Raman spectroscopy, secondary ion mass Geoffrey David Bromiley, University of Edinburgh, UK spectrometry (SIMS) and proton-proton (pp)-scattering on a suite of synthetic Mg- and Marc Blanchard, CNRS - Université Fe-bearing hydrous ringwoodites. H2O concentrations in the crystals studied here Pierre et Marie Curie, France range from 0.46 to 1.7wt% H2O (absolute methods), with the maximum H2Oin *Correspondence: the same sample giving 2.5 wt% by SIMS calibration. Anchoring our spectroscopic Sylvia-Monique Thomas, results to absolute H-atom concentrations from pp-scattering measurements, we report Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada Las Vegas, frequency-dependent integrated IR-absorption coefficients for water in ringwoodite −1 −2 4505 S. -
100 Years Later: Reflecting on Alfred Wegener's Contributions To
The University of Manchester Research 100 Years Later: Reflecting on Alfred Wegener’s Contributions to Tornado Research in Europe DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0316.1 Document Version Accepted author manuscript Link to publication record in Manchester Research Explorer Citation for published version (APA): Antonescu, B., Ricketts, H., & Schultz, D. (2019). 100 Years Later: Reflecting on Alfred Wegener’s Contributions to Tornado Research in Europe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(4), 567-578. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0316.1 Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Citing this paper Please note that where the full-text provided on Manchester Research Explorer is the Author Accepted Manuscript or Proof version this may differ from the final Published version. If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the Research Explorer are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Takedown policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please refer to the University of Manchester’s Takedown Procedures [http://man.ac.uk/04Y6Bo] or contact [email protected] providing relevant details, so we can investigate your claim. Download date:04. Oct. 2021 1 100 Years Later: Reflecting on Alfred Wegener’s Contributions to Tornado 2 Research in Europe 1;2 ∗ 1 1 3 Bogdan Antonescu , Hugo M. A. M. Ricketts , and David M. -
Stanley Keith Runcorn FRS (1922-1995)
Catalogue of the papers and correspondence of Stanley Keith Runcorn FRS (1922-1995) VOLUME 11 Section G: Societies and organisations by Timothy E. Powell and Caroline Thibeaud NCUACS catalogue no. 104/3/02 S.K. Runcorn 124 NCUACS 104/3/02 SECTION G SOCIETIES AND ORGANISATIONS G.1-G.732 G.1 ACADEMIA EUROPAEA G.2-G.6 AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION G.7-G.11 BRITISH ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE G.12-G.63 COSPAR (COMMITTEE ON SPACE RESEARCH) G.64-G.67 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT UNIT G.68-G.76 EUROPEAN GEOPHYSICAL SOCIETY G.77 EUROPEAN PLANETARY GEOLOGY CONSORTIUM G.78-G.111 EUROPEAN SCIENCE FOUNDATION G.112-G.1S3 EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY G.1S4-G.230 INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION G.231-G.277 INTERNATIONAL UNION OF GEODESY AND GEOPHYSICS G.278 INTERNATIONAL UNION OF GEOLOGICAL SCIENCES G.279-G.294 INTER-UNION COMMISSION FOR STUDIES OF THE MOON G .29S-G .300 JOINT SERVICES WEST-EAST SAHARA EXPEDITION G.301, G.302 LIBERAL PARTY G.303-G.311 LUNAR SCIENCE INSTITUTE S.K. Runcorn 125 NCUACS 104/3/02 Societies and organisations G.312 METEORITICAL SOCIETY G.313 MINERALOLOGICAL SOCIETY G.314-G.319 MINISTRY OF SUPPLY G.320 MUSEUM OF NORTHERN ARIZONA G.321-G.333 NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION (NASA) G.334-G.338 NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G.339-G.342 NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANISATION (NATO) G.343 NUFFIELD FOUNDATION G.344-G.365 POI\ITIFICAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES G.366 PROVINCIAAL UTRECHTS GENOOTSCHAP VAN KUISTEN EN WETENSCHAPPEN G.367-G.386 ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY G.387-G.731 ROYAL SOCIETY G.732 STANDING CONFERENCE OF PROFESSORS OF PHYSICS S.K. -
When the Earth Moves Seafloor Spreading and Plate Tectonics
This article was published in 1999 and has not been updated or revised. BEYONDBEYOND DISCOVERYDISCOVERYTM THE PATH FROM RESEARCH TO HUMAN BENEFIT WHEN THE EARTH MOVES SEAFLOOR SPREADING AND PLATE TECTONICS arly on the morning of Wednesday, April 18, the fault had moved, spanning nearly 300 miles, from 1906, people in a 700-mile stretch of the West San Juan Bautista in San Benito County to the south E Coast of the United States—from Coos Bay, of San Francisco to the Upper Mattole River in Oregon, to Los Angeles, California—were wakened by Humboldt County to the north, as well as westward the ground shaking. But in San Francisco the ground some distance out to sea. The scale of this movement did more than shake. A police officer on patrol in the was unheard of. The explanation would take some six city’s produce district heard a low rumble and saw the decades to emerge, coming only with the advent of the street undulate in front of him, “as if the waves of the theory of plate tectonics. ocean were coming toward me, billowing as they came.” One of the great achievements of modern science, Although the Richter Scale of magnitude was not plate tectonics describes the surface of Earth as being devised until 1935, scientists have since estimated that divided into huge plates whose slow movements carry the the 1906 San Francisco earthquake would have had a continents on a slow drift around the globe. Where the 7.8 Richter reading. Later that morning the disaster plates come in contact with one another, they may cause of crushed and crumbled buildings was compounded by catastrophic events, such as volcanic eruptions and earth- fires that broke out all over the shattered city. -
Th E Age of the Earth
EDITORIAL TH E AGE OF THE EARTH PRINCIPAL EDITORS JAMES I. DREVER, University of Wyoming, USA ([email protected]) The “Age of the Earth” is of 200 students, “Have you had a discussion with GEORGES CALAS, IMPMC, France one of the most common someone who thinks the Earth is much younger ([email protected]) JOHN W. VALLEY, University of Wisconsin, USA titles in the geological than 4500 million years?”, and about 50% say ([email protected]) literature, and with good “yes.” I then have 50 minutes to talk about how PATRICIA M. DOVE, Virginia Tech ([email protected]) reason. The scientific rocks are dated and to compare 4500 Ma with ADVISORY BOARD 2012 and philosophical impli- earlier estimates. I explain that geochronology is JOHN BRODHOLT, University College London, UK cations are immense. based on observable data and that the hypotheses NORBERT CLAUER, CNRS/UdS, Université de Strasbourg, France This issue of Elements is are testable, and I encourage students to at least WILL P. GATES, SmecTech Research Consulting, devoted to measuring look through the windows of clean-labs to see Australia th GEORGE E. HARLOW, American Museum geologic time on the 100 people running mass spectrometers. The serious of Natural History, USA John Valley anniversary of a book students may read this issue of Elements and get JANUSZ JANECZEK, University of Silesia, Poland HANS KEPPLER, Bayerisches Geoinstitut, with this title (Holmes an appreciation for the depth and complexity of Germany 1913). The book is a good read—a clear historical determining age, but no fi rst-year student, and DAVID R.