Estimation of Hourly Rainfall During Typhoons Using Radar Mosaic-Based Convolutional Neural Networks
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An Experimental Analysis of Resilience in Urban Flood Management in the Taipei Basin
Resilience in Space: An experimental analysis of resilience in urban flood management in the Taipei Basin Hsu Chia Sui Email: [email protected] Thesis Supervisor: Kimberly Nicholas Email: [email protected] A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Lund University International Master’s Programme in Environmental Studies and Sustainability Science (LUMES), May 2011 Abstract The existing paradigm of flood management in the Taipei Basin prioritizes structural measures over non-structural measures. This strategy is not sufficiently flexible, particularly in light of increasingly frequent extreme weather. Resilience theory is concerned with the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and retain its same functions. This study offers new insight by conceptualizing resilience in urban flood management. In particular, it demonstrates to what extent resilience theory as used in research on social-ecological systems was useful in developing a better plan for urban flood management. The study comprises a resilience assessment of flood management in Taipei based on guidelines in a workbook for scientists published by the Resilience Alliance. This study identified the external shocks to the flood management system in the Taipei Basin include typhoons, evidence of increasingly frequent extreme weather, groundwater mining and resulting land subsidence, and rapid urbanization. This study also includes a historical profile of major flooding and hydraulic projects from 1960 to 2010 and analyzes phases in terms of an adaptive cycle. The study concludes that resilience theory was an effective approach to investigating external shocks and stress to the system. Furthermore, the qualitative approach to apply resilience was a useful discourse for envisioning a better urban flood management system. -
Global Catastrophe Review – 2015
GC BRIEFING An Update from GC Analytics© March 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHE REVIEW – 2015 The year 2015 was a quiet one in terms of global significant insured losses, which totaled around USD 30.5 billion. Insured losses were below the 10-year and 5-year moving averages of around USD 49.7 billion and USD 62.6 billion, respectively (see Figures 1 and 2). Last year marked the lowest total insured catastrophe losses since 2009 and well below the USD 126 billion seen in 2011. 1 The most impactful event of 2015 was the Port of Tianjin, China explosions in August, rendering estimated insured losses between USD 1.6 and USD 3.3 billion, according to the Guy Carpenter report following the event, with a December estimate from Swiss Re of at least USD 2 billion. The series of winter storms and record cold of the eastern United States resulted in an estimated USD 2.1 billion of insured losses, whereas in Europe, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank in December 2015 are expected to render losses exceeding USD 1.6 billion. Other impactful events were the damaging wildfires in the western United States, severe flood events in the Southern Plains and Carolinas and Typhoon Goni affecting Japan, the Philippines and the Korea Peninsula, all with estimated insured losses exceeding USD 1 billion. The year 2015 marked one of the strongest El Niño periods on record, characterized by warm waters in the east Pacific tropics. This was associated with record-setting tropical cyclone activity in the North Pacific basin, but relative quiet in the North Atlantic. -
The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010)
atmosphere Article The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010) Xingliang Guo ID and Wei Zhong * Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 3 October 2017; Accepted: 7 December 2017; Published: 20 December 2017 Abstract: Sensitivity tests based on a spectral nudging (SN) technique are conducted to analyze the effect of large-scale environmental factors on the movement of typhoon Megi (2010). The error of simulated typhoon track is effectively reduced using SN and the impact of dynamical factors is more significant than that of thermal factors. During the initial integration and deflection period of Megi (2010), the local steering flow of the whole and lower troposphere is corrected by a direct large-scale wind adjustment, which improves track simulation. However, environmental field nudging may weaken the impacts of terrain and typhoon system development in the landfall period, resulting in large simulated track errors. Comparison of the steering flow and inner structure of the typhoon reveals that the large-scale circulation influences the speed and direction of typhoon motion by: (1) adjusting the local steering flow and (2) modifying the environmental vertical wind shear to change the location and symmetry of the inner severe convection. Keywords: spectral nudging; typhoon track; environmental factors 1. Introduction Although the forecasting accuracy of typhoon tracks has been effectively improved in recent years through observations, numerical simulations, data assimilation and studies of the physical mechanisms affecting typhoon movement [1], the accurate prediction of abnormal typhoon tracks, including their continuous changes and abrupt deflection, is still not possible [2]. -
Dependence of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Performance on Typhoon Characteristics and Forecast Track Error in Taiwan
APRIL 2020 T E N G E T A L . 585 Dependence of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Performance on Typhoon Characteristics and Forecast Track Error in Taiwan HSU-FENG TENG AND JAMES M. DONE National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado CHENG-SHANG LEE Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan YING-HWA KUO National Center for Atmospheric Research, and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 15 August 2019, in final form 7 January 2020) ABSTRACT This study investigates the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) performance of ty- phoons that affected Taiwan during 2011–16. In this period, a total of 19 typhoons with a land warning issued by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) are analyzed. The PQPF is calculated using the ensemble precipi- tation forecast data from the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX), and the verification data, verification thresholds, and typhoon characteristics are obtained from the CWB. The overall PQPF performance of TAPEX has an acceptable reliability and discrimination ability, and the higher probability error is distributed at the mountainous area of Taiwan. The PQPF performance is significantly influenced by typhoon characteristics (e.g., typhoon tracks, sizes, and forward speeds). The PQPFs for westward-moving, large, or slow typhoons have higher reliability and discrimination ability, and lower- probability error than those for northward-moving, small, or fast typhoons, except for similar reliability between fast and slow typhoons. Because northward-moving or small typhoons have larger forecast track error, and their PQPF performance is sensitive to the accuracy of the forecast track, a higher probability error occurs than that for westward-moving or large typhoons. -
Understanding Disaster Risk ~ Lessons from 2009 Typhoon Morakot, Southern Taiwan
Understanding disaster risk ~ Lessons from 2009 Typhoon Morakot, Southern Taiwan Wen–Chi Lai, Chjeng-Lun Shieh Disaster Prevention Research Center, National Cheng-Kung University 1. Introduction 08/10 Rainfall 08/07 Rainfall started & stopped gradually typhoon speed decrease rapidly 08/06 Typhoon Warning for Inland 08/03 Typhoon 08/05 Typhoon Morakot warning for formed territorial sea 08/08 00:00 Heavy rainfall started 08/08 12:00 ~24:00 Rainfall center moved to south Taiwan, which triggered serious geo-hazards and floodings Data from “http://weather.unisys.com/” 1. Introduction There 4 days before the typhoon landing and forecasting as weakly one for norther Taiwan. Emergency headquarters all located in Taipei and few raining around the landing area. The induced strong rainfalls after typhoon leaving around southern Taiwan until Aug. 10. The damages out of experiences crush the operation system, made serious impacts. Path of the center of Typhoon Morakot 1. Introduction Largest precipitation was 2,884 mm Long duration (91 hours) Hard to collect the information High intensity (123 mm/hour) Large depth (3,000 mm-91 hour) Broad extent (1/4 of Taiwan) The scale and type of the disaster increasing with the frequent appearance of extreme weather Large-scale landslide and compound disaster become a new challenge • Area:202 ha Depth:84 meter Volume: 24 million m3 2.1 Root Cause and disaster risk drivers 3000 Landslide Landslide (Shallow, Soil) (Deep, Bedrock) Landslide dam break Flood Debris flow Landslide dam form Alisan Station ) 2000 -
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Analysis of the Influence of Joint Operation of Shihmen and Feitsui Reservoirs on Downstream Flood Peaks for Flood Control Chung-Min Tseng, Ming-Chang Shieh, Chao-Pin Yeh, Jun-Pin Chow, Wen Sen Lee Abstract The Tamsui River Basin covers the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area, which is the most important economic center in Taiwan. Shihmen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir are located in the upper reaches of Tamsui River, play an important role for regulate the water use and flood control in the basin. During flood events, release of floodwaters from Shihmen and Feitsui reservoirs is necessary due to excessive inflows. Since Tamsui River is a tidal river, downstream tide changes need to be considered to avoid disastrous water levels caused by released discharges and simultaneous tidal water flows into the estuary. The joint operation of the two reservoirs has an absolute impact on the safety of the river downstream. In this study, we took real typhoon events as examples, based on actual rainfalls, reservoir release and tidal changes, used a 1-D numerical river flow model to simulate the unsteady river dynamics of Tamsui River. The goal was to understand the interaction between the two reservoirs’ joint operation and the tide. The impact on water levels and flows in Tamsui River is used do draw conclusions for future flood control operations. Keywords: Joint operation for flood control, tidal river, disastrous water levels, numerical river model 1 General Introduction 1.1 Basin Overview The Tamsui River Basin is located in the northern part of Taiwan, has a length of about 159 kilometers and a drainage area of about 2,726 square kilometers. -
On the Extreme Rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009)
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 116, D05104, doi:10.1029/2010JD015092, 2011 On the extreme rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Fang‐Ching Chien1 and Hung‐Chi Kuo2 Received 21 September 2010; revised 17 December 2010; accepted 4 January 2011; published 4 March 2011. [1] Typhoon Morakot (2009), a devastating tropical cyclone (TC) that made landfall in Taiwan from 7 to 9 August 2009, produced the highest recorded rainfall in southern Taiwan in the past 50 years. This study examines the factors that contributed to the heavy rainfall. It is found that the amount of rainfall in Taiwan was nearly proportional to the reciprocal of TC translation speed rather than the TC intensity. Morakot’s landfall on Taiwan occurred concurrently with the cyclonic phase of the intraseasonal oscillation, which enhanced the background southwesterly monsoonal flow. The extreme rainfall was caused by the very slow movement of Morakot both in the landfall and in the postlandfall periods and the continuous formation of mesoscale convection with the moisture supply from the southwesterly flow. A composite study of 19 TCs with similar track to Morakot shows that the uniquely slow translation speed of Morakot was closely related to the northwestward‐extending Pacific subtropical high (PSH) and the broad low‐pressure systems (associated with Typhoon Etau and Typhoon Goni) surrounding Morakot. Specifically, it was caused by the weakening steering flow at high levels that primarily resulted from the weakening PSH, an approaching short‐wave trough, and the northwestward‐tilting Etau. After TC landfall, the circulation of Goni merged with the southwesterly flow, resulting in a moisture conveyer belt that transported moisture‐laden air toward the east‐northeast. -
WMO Bulletin, Volume 32, No. 4
- ~ THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) is a specialized agency of the Un ited Nations WMO was created: - to faci litate international co-operation in the establishment of networks of stations and centres to provide meteorological and hydrologica l services and observations, 11 - to promote the establishment and maintenance of systems for the rapid exchange of meteoro logical and related information, - to promote standardization of meteorological and related observations and ensure the uniform publication of observations and statistics, - to further the application of meteorology to aviation, shipping, water problems, ag ricu lture and other hu man activities, - to promote activi ties in operational hydrology and to further close co-operation between Meteorological and Hydrological Services, - to encourage research and training in meteorology and, as appropriate, in related fi elds. The World Me!eorological Congress is the supreme body of the Organization. It brings together the delegates of all Members once every four years to determine general policies for the fulfilment of the purposes of the Organization. The ExecuTive Council is composed of 36 directors of national Meteorological or Hydrometeorologica l Services serving in an individual capacity; it meets at least once a year to supervise the programmes approved by Congress. Six Regional AssociaTions are each composed of Members whose task is to co-ordinate meteorological and re lated activities within their respective regions. Eight Tee/mica! Commissions composed of experts designated by Members, are responsible for studying meteorologica l and hydro logica l operational systems, app li ca ti ons and research. EXECUTIVE COUNCIL Preside/11: R. L. KI NTA NA R (Phil ippines) Firs! Vice-Presidenl: Ju. -
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form [ ] Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force [ x ] Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Life RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Catastrophe Risk (E) Subgroup [ ] Investment RBC (E) Working Group [ ] SMI RBC (E) Subgroup [ ] C3 Phase II/ AG43 (E/A) Subgroup [ ] P/C RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Stress Testing (E) Subgroup DATE: 08/31/2020 FOR NAIC USE ONLY CONTACT PERSON: Crystal Brown Agenda Item # 2020-07-H TELEPHONE: 816-783-8146 Year 2021 EMAIL ADDRESS: [email protected] DISPOSITION [ x ] ADOPTED WG 10/29/20 & TF 11/19/20 ON BEHALF OF: Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] REJECTED NAME: Steve Drutz [ ] DEFERRED TO TITLE: Chief Financial Analyst/Chair [ ] REFERRED TO OTHER NAIC GROUP AFFILIATION: WA Office of Insurance Commissioner [ ] EXPOSED ________________ ADDRESS: 5000 Capitol Blvd SE [ ] OTHER (SPECIFY) Tumwater, WA 98501 IDENTIFICATION OF SOURCE AND FORM(S)/INSTRUCTIONS TO BE CHANGED [ x ] Health RBC Blanks [ x ] Health RBC Instructions [ ] Other ___________________ [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Blanks [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Instructions [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Blanks [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Instructions DESCRIPTION OF CHANGE(S) Split the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets into separate pages (Page XR007 and XR008). REASON OR JUSTIFICATION FOR CHANGE ** Currently the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets are included on page XR007 of the Health RBC formula. With the implementation of the 20 bond designations and the electronic only tables, the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets were split between two tabs in the excel file for use of the electronic only tables and ease of printing. However, for increased transparency and system requirements, it is suggested that these pages be split into separate page numbers beginning with year-2021. -
Comparison of Typhoon Locations Over Ocean Surface Observed by Various Satellite Sensors
Remote Sens. 2013, 5, 3172-3189; doi:10.3390/rs5073172 OPEN ACCESS Remote Sensing ISSN 2072-4292 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing Article Comparison of Typhoon Locations over Ocean Surface Observed by Various Satellite Sensors Yufang Pan 1, Antony K. Liu 1,2, Shuangyan He 2,*, Jingsong Yang 1,2 and Ming-Xia He 3 1 State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China; E-Mails: [email protected] (Y.P.); [email protected] (J.Y.) 2 Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; E-Mail: [email protected] 3 Ocean Remote Sensing Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; E-Mail: [email protected] * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel: +86-571-8820-8890; Fax: +86-571-8820-8891. Received: 5 May 2013; in revised form: 13 June 2013 / Accepted: 13 June 2013 / Published: 28 June 2013 Abstract: In this study, typhoon eyes have been delineated using wavelet analysis from the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of ocean surface roughness and from the warm area at the cloud top in the infrared (IR) images, respectively. Envisat SAR imagery, and multi-functional transport satellite (MTSAT) and Feng Yun (FY)-2 Chinese meteorological satellite IR imagery were used to examine the typhoons in the western North Pacific from 2005 to 2011. Three cases of various typhoons in different years, locations, and conditions have been used to compare the typhoon eyes derived from SAR (on the ocean surface) with IR (at the cloud-top level) images. -
Typhoon Dujuan, Taiwan
Market Update 30 September 2015 Typhoon Dujuan, Taiwan Crawford Taiwan Typhoon Dujuan was the most intense tropical cyclone of T: +886 2718 6620 the Northern Hemisphere in 2015 according to the F: +886 2718 9101 Central Weather Bureau. The storm brought wind gusts of up to 227km/h, and a sustained wind speed of Leo Chen 184km/h. Dujuan was classified as a Category 4 severe Country Manager tropical storm and it landed in Nanao, Ilan of north‐ M: +886 978 668 986 eastern Taiwan at about 17.40 on 28 September 2015. [email protected] Dujuan left three people dead, 324 injured and six Crawford Hong Kong mountain climbers missing. A total of 2,255,844 T: +852 2526 5137 households were without electricity and 181,392 without F: +852 2845 0598 water. Mike Campbell‐Pitt Schools and offices of Keelung City, Taipei City, New Greater China General Manager Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu City, Hsinchu County, M: +852 6292 7300 Miaoli County, Taichung City, Changhua County, Yunlin [email protected] County, Nantou County, Chayi City, Chayi County, lan County, Hualian County, Penghu County, Kinmen County Crawford Singapore and Lienchiang County were closed on Tuesday due to Regional Asia Pacific Office the storm. Trading in the financial markets was also T: +65 6318 9999 halted. The storm also disrupted international and F: +65 6438 0085 domestic air travel and rail services on the island. Chris Panes Our Taiwan office has been unaffected and our team of Chief Executive Officer, Asia adjusters is ready to respond to claims arising from the M: +65 9727 6017 storm. -
Black-Faced Spoonbill, Spoon-Billed Sandpiper and Chinese Crested Tern
Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals Secretariat provided by the United Nations Environment Programme 14 th MEETING OF THE CMS SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL Bonn, Germany, 14-17 March 2007 CMS/ScC14/Doc.16 Agenda item 5.1 PROGRESS REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL ACTION PLANS FOR THE CONSERVATION OF THE BLACK-FACED SPOONBILL ( PLATALEA MINOR ), SPOON-BILLED SANDPIPER ( EURYNORHYNCHUS PYGMEUS ), AND CHINESE CRESTED-TERN ( STERNA BERNSTEINI ) (Prepared by Mr. Simba Chan, BirdLife International Asia Division) I. Progress to March 2007 1. Preparation of the International Action Plans (IAP) for Black-faced Spoonbill, Chinese Crested-tern and Spoon-billed Sandpiper was unofficially started in late 2004, when BirdLife International Asia Division contacted experts on these species for their involvement in drafting the IAPs. As BirdLife International and its partners in Asia have been involved in conservation activities of Black-faced Spoonbill and Chinese Crested-tern, we believe it is best to have these two species IAP coordinated under BirdLife International Asia Division. On the IAP for Spoon- billed Sandpiper, BirdLife International approached the Shorebird Network of the Asia- Australasian Flyway for cooperation. They recommended Dr Christoph Zöckler, a Spoon-billed Sandpiper expert, to be the coordinator. BirdLife International had discussed with Dr Zöckler several times since 2004 and finally signed an agreement regarding the IAP after signing the Letter of Agreement with the CMS in early 2006. Black-faced Spoonbill Platalea minor 2. Drafting of the IAP for Black-faced Spoonbill goes on smoothly, with four working meetings between compilers who represent all major range countries (Japan, North Korea, South Korea, China including the island of Taiwan and the Hong Kong Special Administration Region) and workshop and symposia held in Tokyo, Tainan (Taiwan), Hong Kong and Ganghwa (South Korea): Tokyo, Japan : 2-6 October 2005 Meeting during the BirdLife Asia Council Meeting and a workshop at the Korea University, Tokyo.