Frankfurt Motor Show Review – the Fittest to Survive the Storm
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Korea/Automobiles Industry Update Overweight 19 September 2011 Overweight Overweight Overweight 2 Sep 2011 4 Aug 2011 1 Aug 2011 Frankfurt Motor Show review – The fittest to survive the storm At the 2011 Frankfurt Motor Show, global auto/parts manufacturers showed their latest products that can fuel a Stocks for action new growth momentum despite the uncertain macro Price environment and more stringent regulations. However, (15/9/2011 Target those who already have (1) a strong line-up of new Company Ticker Rating close) price models/products with industry-leading product and price Hyundai Motor 005380 KS Buy 208,000 300,000 Kia Motors 000270 KS Buy 70,000 100,000 competitiveness, (2) cost-cutting measures in advanced Note: Prices are in KRW level, (3) a balanced global footprint in sales are expected to outperform others in short-to-mid term. » New products to fuel new growth momentum Performance From new small hatchbacks to advanced electric vehicles with carbon 210 fiber-reinforced plastic body panels, the world’s leading manufacturers Industry performance KOSPI index 190 showcased their latest products, and we expect the latest offerings from 170 Hyundai/Kia Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen Group, and BMW to fuel 150 stronger-than-expected growth for the companies from as early as 2H11. 130 110 » Cost-cutting measures in advanced level 90 After meetings with company/IR representatives at the Frankfurt Motor 70 50 Show, we were left with a strong conviction that Hyundai/Kia Motors, Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Volkswagen and BMW will be able to withstand the possible short-to- mid-term margin squeezes better than many of the competitors, through further cost-cutting via integration of platforms using modular platforms/toolkits. » A balanced global footprint Auto manufacturers with a balanced global footprint and a big exposure in BRICs market are expected to withstand the impact of a possible downturn in some developed regions better than others. Also, with the BRICs auto market expected to grow by 11.7% in 2011E and by a 6.2% CAGR over the next 10 years, manufacturers with a strong foothold in the region are likely to outperform others in the short-to-mid term. » Maintain Kia Motors as Top Pick We maintain Kia Motors as our top pick(BUY; TP: KRW100,000) in Korea auto sector and expect Volkswagen(Not Rated) and BMW(Not Rated) to outperform during the uncertain macro environment and possible global auto market slow-down. Hedge fund investors Long-only investors Gregory Byung Kwan Kim, Korea Analyst 822 3774 1592 [email protected] Recent robust stock performance and a Solid financials, introduction of key strong won may prompt short selling, volume models in overseas markets but a correction of the stock will be and greater market share globally will short-term, as long as strong sales from provide further re-rating opportunities the U.S. and BRICs continue and the for the Korea auto stocks, going yen stays strong forward See the last page of this report for important disclosures Source for above data: Bloomberg, companies, Mirae Estimates 1 Gregory Byung Kwan Kim, Analyst, 822 3774 1592 [email protected] Korea/Automobiles 19 September 2011 Executive summary New products to fuel new growth momentum After spending three full days (13th~15th September) at the 2011 Frankfurt Motor Show Latest models from HKMC, VW reviewing new products and ideas, the latest products from Hyundai/Kia Motors, Toyota, Toyota, and BMW to fuel stronger -than-expected growth Volkswagen Group and BMW stood out from the rest, in our view, due to industry-leading product and price competitiveness. From new small hatchbacks to advanced electric vehicles with carbon fiber-reinforced plastic body panels, we expect the latest offerings from Hyundai/Kia Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen Group, and BMW to fuel stronger-than-expected growth for the companies from as early as 2H11. Cost-cutting measures in advanced level Cost-cutting is the key in sustaining margins through possible market downturn, and having had HKMC, VW and BMW are best at meetings with company/IR representatives at the show, we were left with a strong conviction cost-cutting, so expect solid margins going forward that Hyundai/Kia Motors, Volkswagen and BMW will be able to withstand the possible short-to- mid term margin squeezes (due to increasing incentives and rising raw material costs) better than many of the competitors, through further significant cost-cutting via integration of platforms using modular platforms/toolkits. A balanced global footprint Auto manufacturers with a balanced global footprint and an already significant exposure in the HKMC and VW have the most emerging markets are expected to withstand the impact of a possible market downturn in some balanced global footprint, so less impact of developed market developed regions better than others. Also, with the BRICs auto market expected to grow by downturn expected 11.7% in 2011E and by a 6.2% CAGR over the next 10 years, auto manufacturers with a strong foothold in the region are expected to outperform others in the short-to-mid term. We believe Hyundai/Kia Motors and Volkswagen Group have the most balanced global footprint and we expect the companies to benefit the most from continued growth in the BRICs auto market going forward. Maintain Kia Motors as Top Pick We maintain Kia Motors as our top pick(BUY; TP: KRW100,000) in Korea auto sector and Maintain Kia Motors as Top Pick expect Volkswagen(Not Rated) and BMW(Not Rated) to outperform during the uncertain macro due to expected solid earnings growth and attractive valuations environment and possible global auto market slow-down. Kia’s FY11 and FY12 EPS(consolidated) are expected to increase by 56% and 22%, respectively, while, despite the recent share price gain, the company is trading at 6.7x 2011 P/E and 5.5x 2012 P/E; still undervalued against its global peers. The company is also one of the most undervalued stocks in terms of PBR vs. ROE, trading at 2.1x 2011 book and 1.5x 2012 book despite an ROE of 37.2% and 33.8% for respective years. Therefore, we still believe Kia Motors presents an attractive buying opportunity. 2 Gregory Byung Kwan Kim, Analyst, 822 3774 1592 [email protected] Korea/Automobiles 19 September 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary 2 New products to fuel new growth momentum 2 Cost-cutting measures in advanced level 2 A balanced global footprint 2 Maintain Kia Motors as Top Pick 2 New products to fuel new growth momentum 4 Hyundai Motor Group – Brand new B, C, D-segment models to conquest new sales in Europe 4 Toyota Motor Corporation – Consolidating Toyota's strengths in Europe 12 Volkswagen Group – Seeking greater penetration in small car segment 24 BMW Group – Achieving a new level of efficiency in the premium market 27 Cost-cutting measures in advanced level 30 Hyundai Motor Group – Further cost-cutting through platform integration 30 Volkswagen Group – Modular toolkits, the driver in margin expansion 30 BMW – ‘Strategy Number One’ efficiency measures above plan 31 A balanced global footprint 33 Hyundai Motor Group – Growing presence in all regions 33 Volkswagen Group – Well on track to achieve 10m unit sales by 2018 35 Analyst team profile 36 3 Gregory Byung Kwan Kim, Analyst, 822 3774 1592 [email protected] Korea/Automobiles 19 September 2011 New products to fuel new growth momentum After spending three full days (13th~15th September) at the 2011 Frankfurt Motor Show reviewing new products and ideas, the latest products from Hyundai/Kia Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen Group and BMW stood out from the rest, in our view, due to industry-leading product and price competitiveness. From new small hatchbacks to advanced electric vehicles with carbon fiber-reinforced plastic body panels, we expect the latest offerings from Hyundai/Kia Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen Group, and BMW to fuel stronger-than-expected growth for the companies from as early as 2H11. Below are highlights of the new products offered at the show by the world’s leading manufacturers and our views on them. Hyundai Motor Group – Brand new B, C, D-segment models to conquest new sales in Europe At the 2011 Frankfurt Motor Show, Hyundai Motor(BUY, TP KRW300,000) and Kia Motors(BUY, Hyundai/Kia’s new B, C, D- TP KRW100,000) introduced brand new B, C, and D-segment models (new Kia Rio 3/5dr, segment models to conquest new sales in Europe Hyundai i30 5dr, Hyundai i40 saloon/estate, Kia Optima saloon) that could lead to further volume growth and market share gains for both companies in Europe even under the difficult market conditions. The new Kia Rio(AKA Pride) With the all-new, fourth-generation Rio, Kia is hoping for a successful re-entry to the compact Kia’s all new Rio expected to gain car segment and accelerate the growth of sales in Europe. According to the company, the new significant sales in the European B-segment Rio has a bold and distinctive personality, bringing the latest B-segment model into line with the rest of Kia’s modern, design-led product range. In addition to appealing to consumers’ aesthetic tastes, the company is aiming to significantly grow its market share across the world by offering industry-leading environmental improvements and low running costs. CO2 emissions for the model range start at just 85 g/km. This impressive figure places the most environmentally- friendly version of Kia’s new model, the Rio EcoDynamics, ahead of all other B-segment vehicles currently on sale in Europe. Since its launch in 2005, global sales of the third-generation Rio have totaled more than 860k units.