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US-China Relations at 40: Where Have We Been and Where Are We Going?

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US-China Relations at 40: Where Have We Been and Where Are We Going? Scowcroft Paper No. 15 US-China Relations at 40: Where Have We Been and Where are We Going? David Shambaugh , Ph.D. Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science & International Affairs Founding Director of the China Policy Program February 2019 For more information: bush.tamu.edu/Scowcroft/ US-China Relations at 40: Where Have We Been and Where are We Going? By Professor David Shambaugh This Scowcroft Paper was written presented Professor David Shambaugh on February 28 2019 at The George Bush School of Government and Public Service sponsored by the Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs. Dr. Shambaugh is an internationally recognized authority on contemporary China and Asia foreign relations. He has written more than 30 books, including most recently China’s Future and The China Reader: Rising Power. He is currently the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science & International Affairs, and the founding Director of the China Policy Program in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. It is a real pleasure to be here at Texas suppressed the six-week long massive A&M and the Bush School and Scowcroft demonstrations in Beijing, killing between Institute. While I have never had the honor of 1500-2000 citizens. That was a key turning meeting the two former Bush presidents, I point in the relationship—in some real ways, have had extensive interactions with Brent the relationship never recovered and never Scowcroft (including trips to China with returned to the halcyon decade of the 1980s him). I admire him so much and have learned (arguably the best decade for the so much from him in our conversations over relationship). the years. Gen. Scowcroft is a Great The relationship had a great deal of American and has provided exceptional momentum prior to the tragic events of service to our nation. 1989—a virtual strategic alliance, growing My visit here comes a little over one economic ties, excellent diplomatic month after the 40th anniversary of the interactions, and growing cultural exchanges establishment of diplomatic relations between (I was a student three times—for three the United States and People’s Republic of years—during 1979 and early 1980s). It was China. This was an event that I had the a heady, positive, and confident time—as personal pleasure of participating in and Deng Xiaoping’s reforms were transforming witnessing, as I worked on the National China domestically and opening it to the Security Council staff for Dr. Brzezinski and world. As it did so, Chinese of many sectors President Carter during 1977-78 and the run- (including its leaders) looking admiringly on up to normalization of relations. It seems the United States—which in turn aroused a almost like yesterday, but indeed four latent “missionary complex” in the US to decades have passed and a great deal has been contribute to the modernization and accomplished in the Sino-American liberalization of China (which, I would argue, relationship. It has also weathered a number has been in American DNA towards China for of turbulent times—including during both more than two centuries). Bush 41 and 43’s presidencies. On President Thus when the millions of Bush 41’s watch, the relationship was rocked demonstrators filled Tiananmen Square and by the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen Incident, 33 other cities across China in April-May when the Chinese military brutally US-China Relations at 40: Where Have We Been and Where are We Going? 1989, erecting a replica of the Statue of leadership—and he did so precisely by Liberty and quoting American patriots like dispatching Brent Scowcroft on two secret Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Paine, Ben missions to Beijing (in July and December). Franklin, Nathan Hale, and others, Americans I do not wish to dwell excessively on sat riveted to their televisions as the drama the Tiananmen crisis, but it is directly relevant unfolded (the first “living room to the Bush School and Scowcroft Institute revolution”)—and the “missionary complex” here at A&M. We have certainly had other was aroused…..only to watch the PLA tanks crises in the US-China relationship as well. crush the demonstrations. This created a Another occurred on the watch of President major crisis—the first major crisis post- Bush 43: the 2001 EP-3 Incident. This normalization—in the relationship, and it occurred right at the outset of his presidency, happened on Bush 41s’ and General in May 2001, but following the resolution— Scowcroft’s watch—and they handled it with done again with great diplomatic acumen by typical calm and diplomatic skill. This was those in the NSC, State Dept., and US not at all easy—as the American public, the Embassy in Beijing—the relationship grew US Congress, and indeed the entire Western steadily throughout the remain 7.5 years of world was horrified by what had transpired. A the Bush presidency. Looking back from reading of the archival materials for this where we are today, these 7.5 years were the period next door in the Bush Presidential longest stretch of steady and positive Library only buttresses the view that relations we have had in the post-1989 period. President Bush and General Scowcroft did So, my hat is off to the Bush 43 administration their utmost to resist a complete breakdown of when it comes to China policy! the Sino-American relationship, and they worked with the Chinese side to map out a **** pathway to navigating through that most difficult period and renormalize relations. Looking back over the past 40 years, we have certainly had our share of strains and President Bush, who of course had crises—but we have also had a number of served as head of the pre-normalization accomplishments. It is worth remembering Liaison Office in Beijing in 1974-75 and had today, as the two major powers increasingly great enthusiasm and hopes for the US-China clash over a range of issues that, underneath, relationship (even breaking with traditional a vast network of ties exist between, and link precedent and taking his first foreign trip to together, our two societies. This is what China instead of the UK), on the one hand, makes the current US-China competition had to bend to the public and Congressional fundamentally different than the US-Soviet outrage by suspending governmental Cold War. exchanges and invoking a range of sanctions on China (some of which are still in effect to Forty years ago there were no students this day)—but, on the other hand, he took the exchanged—today there are 363,341 Chinese long view that the relationship had to endure. students studying in American universities He thus sought to keep lines of and an estimated 80,000 in American communication open with the Chinese secondary schools, while there approximately 1 US-China Relations at 40: Where Have We Been and Where are We Going? 12,000 American students study in China. would be mistaken to oversell these mutual Trade was a paltry $2.3 billion in 1979 but bonds and underappreciate the deep sources ballooned to $636 billion in 2017. Forty years of stress and suspicion that exist in both ago there was no U.S. commercial direct countries today. We ignore them at our peril. investment in China, today total accumulated These frictions, and the perceptions that stock has reached $256.49 billion. underlie them, are real—and now dominate Meanwhile, China’s investment in the U.S. the relationship. has grown from zero to $139.81 billion today. So, what is the nature of the US-China Despite the multiple stresses in the bilateral relationship these days? I would describe it as commercial relationship at present, comprehensive competition with residual epitomized by the ongoing tariff war, the cooperation. In virtually every dimension of commercial bonds continue to tie the the relationship competitive dynamics: countries together. In the military-security domain, both Four decades ago only a fraction of militaries view the other as American tourists visited China, while none traveled to the United States—now large threatening, and a clear “security numbers visit the other country annually. dilemma” and brewing arms race is Approximately 250 direct flights traverse the readily apparent. Both militaries arm Pacific between the two countries every week. and train themselves with potentially fighting the other. These people-to-people ties are buttressed by more than 201 sister city and 44 sister state- In terms of the regional security province relationships. Although exchanges architecture in Asia, they possess between non-governmental organizations countervailing visions and have contracted sharply since China’s 2017 institutions. China has the SCO, NGO law went into effect, there are still about CICA, bilateral “strategic 90 American NGOs registered in China. partnerships,” espouses “cooperative” Over the decades dozens of bilateral security and is explicitly opposed to agreements have been signed by the two alliances as a “relic of the Cold War.” governments to facilitate exchanges in a wide The Chinese logic is zero-sum, i.e. variety of fields—ranging from the sciences Beijing argues that alliances were to athletics. American sports, popular culture, formed to counter the USSR, and and brands remain very popular among the alliances should have disappeared Chinese public—while Chinese films, when the Cold War ended and the literature, and arts are gaining traction with Soviet Union disintegrated. By the American public. contrast, the US believes in alliances, maintains 38 worldwide and five in Thus, when the two tigers are Asia plus a network of security fighting—as the two governments are partnerships around the world (60+).
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