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Hearing on Us-China Relations in 2020 HEARING ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS IN 2020: ENDURING PROBLEMS AND EMERGING CHALLENGES HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2020 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: https://www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2020 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ROBIN CLEVELAND, CHAIRMAN CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: ANDREAS A. BORGEAS THEA MEI LEE BOB BOROCHOFF KENNETH LEWIS JEFFREY L. FIEDLER HON. JAMES M. TALENT HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN MICHAEL R. WESSEL ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN LARRY M. WORTZEL The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at https://www.uscc.gov. ii CONTENTS WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2020 HEARING ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS IN 2020: ENDURING PROBLEMS AND EMERGING CHALLENGES Opening Statement of Chairman Robin Cleveland (Hearing Co-Chair) ..........................................................................................................1 Prepared Statement ..........................................................................................................3 Opening Statement of Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) ..........................................................................................................5 Prepared Statement ..........................................................................................................6 Panel I: China’s Assessment of its Strategic Environment Panel I Introduction by Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................7 Statement of Kerry Brown Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London ............................................................................................................................8 Prepared Statement ........................................................................................................10 Statement of Andrew Scobell Senior Political Scientist at RAND Corporation (on leave) and Donald Bren Chair in Non-Western Strategic Thought, Marine Corps University ..........................................17 Prepared Statement ........................................................................................................19 Statement of Anthony Saich Director, Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, and Daewoo Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University ..............................................35 Prepared Statement ........................................................................................................37 Panel I: Question and Answer ...........................................................................................52 Panel II: China’s Capabilities and Limitations Panel II Introduction by Chairman Robin Cleveland (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................70 Statement of Andrew Small Senior Transatlantic Fellow with the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States .................................................................................................................71 Prepared Statement ........................................................................................................74 Statement of Joel Wuthnow Senior Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at National Defense University .........................................................................................88 Prepared Statement ........................................................................................................91 Statement of Dexter Roberts Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Asia Security Initiative, Fellow at iii the University of Montana’s Maureen and Mike Mansfield Center, and author of The Myth of Chinese Capitalism ........................................................................................117 Prepared Statement ......................................................................................................119 Panel II: Question and Answer .......................................................................................123 Panel III: Emerging Issues in East Asia Panel III Introduction by Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................139 Statement of Roger Cliff Independent Analyst ....................................................................................................140 Prepared Statement ......................................................................................................142 Statement of Bill Hayton Associate Fellow for the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House ............................151 Prepared Statement ......................................................................................................154 Panel III: Question and Answer ......................................................................................167 Panel IV: Emerging Global Issues Panel IV Introduction by Chairman Robin Cleveland (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................178 Statement of Tanvi Madan Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy program and director of The India Project at the Brookings Institution ...................................................................................................179 Prepared Statement ......................................................................................................182 Statement of Jonathan Fulton Assistant Professor of Political Science in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Zayed University ......................................................................................192 Prepared Statement ......................................................................................................194 Panel IV: Question and Answer ......................................................................................202 STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD Statement of John Calabrese Assistant Professor at American University and Scholar in Residence and Director of the Middle-East Asia Project at the Middle East Institute ...........................................213 QUESTIONS FOR THE RECORD Responses from Andrew Small Senior Transatlantic Fellow with the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States ................................................................................................................226 Responses from Joel Wuthnow Senior Research Fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at iv National Defense University ........................................................................................228 Responses from Roger Cliff Independent Analyst ....................................................................................................230 PUBLIC COMMENT SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Public Comment from Jean Public .................................................................................232 v U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS IN 2020: ENDURING PROBLEMS AND EMERGING CHALLENGES WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2020 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, DC The Commission met in Room 215 of Dirksen Senate Office Building and via virtual videoconference at 10:00 a.m., Chairman Robin Cleveland and Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chairs) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN ROBIN CLEVELAND HEARING CO-CHAIR CHAIRMAN CLEVELAND: Good morning. Welcome to the last hearing of the U.S.- China Economic and Security Review Commission's 2020 annual report cycle. This hearing comes as we approach the end of a cataclysmic year for China's impact on public health, democratic processes, international security, and the global economy. The world is now poised to enter a global recession, which the World Bank characterizes as the worst in 80 years, owing to the Chinese Communist Party's mismanagement of the novel coronavirus outbreak.
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