SIMULATION 01' WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS IN DIN,\.JPUR SADAR UPAZILA USING WRAP MODEL
A Thesis by ;\'Id. Shafiqur Rahman
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE MASTER OF SCIENCE IN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMEI\T
SUET
March,2009 ,It___ _
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INSTITUTE OF WATER AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT BAi'lGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF EI\GINERRING AND TECHNOLOGY BANGLADRSH UJ'IiIVERSITY o.r ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY I!'iSTlTUTE OF WATER AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT
The thesls titled 'Simulation of Water Resources Management Scenarios in Dinajpnr Sadar Upil1:ila u~ing WEAP Model' submllted by Md. Shafiqur Rahman, Roll No. MF 04052817, Session: April 2005, has been accepted as satl,;Eletory ill partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of M. Se. in Water Re80urees Development ill March 25, 2009,
BOARD OF EXAMINERS
Chaiml
- Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Dhaka
.~...~ Member Dr. Rezaur Rahman Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh Umversity of Engmeering and Technology Dhaka
Member Dr. Anlsul Haque (Ex-orficio) Proressor and D,rector Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Dhaka
Member Dr. Nilufa Islam (External) Om",tor (Technical) Water ResoliTCes Planmng OrganizatIOn (W ARPO) Dhaka
• CANDIDATE'S DECLARATION
It is hereby declared thaI this thesis or any part of l! has nol heen submitted elsewhere for the award of an\, degree
Md. Shafiqur Rahman Roll No. MF 04052R17 Session: April, 2005 ~, - , 0
Dedicated to my
BELOVED MOTHER AND REA VENLY FATHER
• •.. ., ,~ . Table of Contents Pagc No. Table of contents LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS XJ1l ACKJ'lJOWLEDGEMENT XIV ABSTRACT Chapter One Introduction 1-5
11 Background 12 Objcctivcs 4 1.3 Outline oflhe Methodology 4 14 Structure oflhe ThesIs 5 Cbapter Two Literature Review 6-20
2.1 Tntroduction 6 2.2 Crilicallssues ill Water Resources Management 6 2.2.1 Global Context 6 2.2.2 Context ofBanglade,h 7 2.2.3 Need for IWRM 9 2.3 Demand and Supply Scenario in Bangladesh 9 2.3.1 Water Demand 9 2.3,2 Water Availabihty 11 2.3.2.1 Surfaee \Vater Availability 11 2.3.2.2 Groumlwater Availability 12 2.3.3 National Policies with Demand 13 Management 2.3.4 Demand Management Tools 13 2.4 Water Resources Management Tool 14 2.4, I Decision SliPPOrl Tools Used ill Bangladesh 14 2.4,2 Decision SllppOrl Tools Used In Other 16 Countries 2.5 WEAP DSS 18 2.5.1 DescriptIOn orthc WEAP 18 2.5.2 Application ofthc WEAP 19 Chapter Three Study Area 21-28
3.1 General Overview 21 3.2 Households atld PopulallOn 23 3.3 Climate 23 34 Topography and Physiography 25 3.5 Hydrogeological Setting 25 36 Drainage and River System 26 3.7 Existing Agrieliltural Practice 27 3.8 Water Use 27 3.9 Irrigation System and Coverage 28 Chapter Four WEAPModel 29-48
4.1 Introduction 29 4.2 Application Steps 29 4.3 Scenario Analysis 30 4.4 Demand Management CapabilitIes 31 4.5 Envlronmental Effect 31
4,6 Selling lip WEAP Analy~is 31 4.6.1 Schematic Development of Study Area 31 4.6.2 Demand Analysis 36 4.6.3 Hydrology 39 4,6.4 Supply and Resources 39 4.7 Ca1cl.llalion Algorithms 40 4.7.1 Annnal Demand and Monthly Sl.lpply 40 Requirement Calculations
4.7.2 lnnows and OulDows or Water: Use or 41 Lmear Program 4,7.3 RIver 43 4.7.4 Local Sllpply 44 4.8 Setting-lip WEAP Model of the Dinajpur Sadar 45 Upazila Chapter Five Demand Estimation 49-57
5.1 Introduction 49 52 Selection orBase Year 50 53 EstimatIOn oI'CUlTcnt Demand 50 5.3.1 Dome,lic Demand 50 5.3,2 AgnclLHural Demand 52 5.3.3 Industrial Demand 53 5.3.4 Environmental Demand 54 5.4 Supply 54 5.4.1 River 55 5.4.2 Groundwater 56 Chapter Six Scenario Construction 58-61
61 lntrOdUCtlOll 58 6.2 Scenario ConslnLc1ion 59 Scenario I: Population gro\\1h 59 Scenario 2: Increased Irrigation Efficiency 60 Scenario 3: Groundwater is More Fully Exploited OJ Scenario 4: Groundwater is .Fully Exploited 61 together with Increased ImgallOn Efficiency Management Strategies Scenario 5: Rubber Dam Conslmction 61 Chapter Seven WEAP Simulation Results 62-90
7.1 Introduction 62 7.2 Waler Demand in the "Reference Scenario" 62 Unmel Dcmand 70 Water Allocation by Sourccs 76
7.3 Anal y'lS of Irrigation F rricicncy 78 UWlet Dcmand under thc Sccnario of lncrc3sed 81
Vlll • Imgation Efficiency 74 More ljtilization of grOLmdwatcr 85 Increased Irrigation Effkiency along w1(h DT';Vs 86 ExpansIOn t\llgmcntmg Surface Water Flow through Rubber 87 Dam Waler Allocmion using Rllhbcr Dam 87 Uumel Demand using Rubber Dam 88
7.5 Discussion 90 Chapter Eight Conclusions and Recommendations 91-93
8.1 Conclusions 91 8.2 Recommendations 93 References 94 LIST OF TABLES
Puge No.
Table 3,] The Area, .population and Literacy Rate hy Dinajpur Sadar 23 Upalila Table 3.2 Oinajpur Sadar UpaZlla Irrigation Coverage 28 "lable5.1 Population of Different Domestic Demand in DIfferent 51 Unions Table 5.2 Union Wise Agncullura] Demand 53 Table 5.3 Union Wise Industrial Information 54 Tahle 5.4 Monlhly River flows Available in Rivers (m'fs) 55 Table 5,5 Monlhly River flo"', available in the 81~dyarea (mJfs) 56 Table 5,(' Avallah1c Groundwaler Resources ofDmajpur Sadar 57 Upa:!.ila Table 7.1 .Monthly Water Demand in Different Sector, 2007, 2025 66 and 2045 Table 7.2 Monthly Agriculture Unmet Demand 72 Table 7.3 Monthly Waler Allocation by sourees in 2007 through 2045 77 Table 7 4 Monthly Agriculture Water Demand lor 10% Increased 79 Irrigation "Efficiency Table 7,5 Monthly Agriculture Waler Demand for 20% Increased 80 Imgation Efficiency Table 7.6 .Monthly Agriculture Unmet Demand for 10% Increased 82 Irrigalion Etliciency Table 7.7 Monthly Agriculture Unmct Demand for 20% Increased 83 Irrigation Efiiciency Table 7,8 Deep Tube weB Expansion needed to Meet Unmet Demand 85 in Reference Scenario Table 7.9 DTWs Expansion using lrrigalion EITlcicncy 86 Table 7.10 Monthly Water Alloemion Usmg Rubber Dam 88 Table 7.11 Monthly Agricull\lre Unmet Demand using Rubber Dam 89 LIST OF FIGURES
Page No.
Figure 2.1 Crilieal Issues from Global Perspective 7 Figure 3.1 Location Map oflhe Study Area 22 Fib'ure 3.2 MontWy Average Rainfall at Dmajpur Station 24 Figure 3.3 MontWy Average Maximum and Minimum at 24 Dinajpllr Station (Celei us)
Figure 4.1 Construetiollof\VF.,l,P Sehcmatie Vie'" 32 Figure 4.2 Demand Analysis m WEAP 36 Figure 4,3 Aclivity Levd in WEAP 37 Figure 4.4 Waler IJsc Rate in \VEAP 37 Figure 4.5 Schematic Fcahlre ofDinajpur Sadar Upazila 46 Figure 6.1 Expected Population Growth in II Unions of 50 Dmajpur Sadar Upazila Figure 7.1 Expec!ed Domestic Water Demand Growth OJ Flgure 7.2 E:>.pecle Figure 7.9 Total Agricultural Demand and Urunet Demand in 74 D,fferent Unions in 2025 Figure 7.10 Total Agricultural Demand and Unmet Demand in 75 Different Unions in 2045 Figure 7.11 Increased in Unmel Demand with time 76 hgure7,12 1Ilollthly Water Al1oeation by Sources 77 Figure 7,]) Union Wise Unnwl Dcmand for 10% lncrea~cd 84 Irrigation EffiCiency FigClre7.14 Union Wise Unmet Dcmand for 20% Increased 84 Irrigation Efficlcncy FigClre7.15 DTWs Expansion 85 Figme7.16 DTWs ExpanslOll j;)r 10% and 20% Increa,ed 87 Irrigation Efficiency ..~~ ~ ~ ...•• LIST OF ABBRJ<:VIATJOl\"S BADe Banglade~h Agricultural Development Corporation llPDB Bangladesh Power llevelopmenl Board liUS Bangladesh Bureau of Stamtic5 UMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department BUET Bangladesh University lfEnginecring and Technolugy BWDB Bangladesh \Vater Development Hoard CEGIS Center for En"'fOnmenlal and Gcographlc lnrormalion Services DAE Department of Agriculture r:: FAP Flood Action Plan GIS Gcographlc Information System IL"\l1 lnternationallrrigation Management institute lWM In:,tltute of\.Valer ~lodclmg I\VRM Integrated Water Resources Management MIS Management In!,,mlalion System MPO Master Plan Organization MWR Mimstry or \Vater Resource, NWMP National Waler Management Plan }.[WPo I\'ational Water Policy SEI Stockholm Environllle~t Inslitute s;yw.c Snowy Mountain Engineering Corporation STWs Shallow Tube Wel1~ UN United Nations WARPO Waler Resources Plannmg Organization \VB World Bank WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System \l,'HO World Health OrganiLalion XII! ACKl'i'O\VLEDGEMENT At the very outse!,1 ackllowl~dg~ the ble%ing of Almighty Allah Ihe 8~nefic~nt, the Mere; ful for enabling me to compl et~ th~ ,tud] QuecessfuJ1y. T would like to express my sinc~r~ and heartiest gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Mashfiqus Salehm, As;ociat~ Professor, Institute of Wat~r and Flood Management (I\VFl\f), BUET, for his constant guidance. "aluable advice, generous help and constructive dIscussion to carry out this research I eon;HJer myself to be proud to have ",orked with him. Without h,S generou<; help and invaluable sugg~stions from the beginning to the end, thIS "'o I expre<;s my profound re:,pect and deepest sense of gratitude to all of my respected teacher> of J\VFM, SUET for (hClf frwtful advices in different times and valuable teachings und~r ditTerent cOUl'sesthat havc helped me reach at thi<;,tagc rhc author especially would like (0 thank Dr 1lh~hJahan 'vIondol, AS.locia(c Profcssor, IWFM, BljE'L for hI; :'lncere advice and .IUpport with referen~e mateTiai<;required for the thesis Thc author adno",ledge~ Lihl aly Assistant and othel' ,t~fls 01 IWFM fOl'their kind eooperatlon, The author acknowledges Bangladesh \"later Dcvclopment Board (BWDB), Bangladesh Meteorological Departmcnt (B.MD), Insti(ute of Water Modelling (IWM) for providmg valuable data and material., I'equired for the study, hnally,l express my deep gratitudc to my parent; and all of my family members for standing all the way in my side March,2009 Md. Shafiqur R~hm~n ABSTRACT - Managing water resources in thc currcnt wo,-ld chmute" a major challenge including Bangladesh In llanglade,h, \\'1\h the growing population and economic de\'elopment, demand ofwuter has also glOwn considcrably creating ,tre~, on [hi, finite resource De~lSlOn SI.lpp011 Systems (D~S) can play important role~ in planning of water resour~es management, including demand management ~[rategies. \Vater Evaluation and Pianning System (\\lEAP) LSsuch a DSS lhat is being incrcasingly used in integrated water resources management acros, the world "lhis study presents a pilot attempt in the development and application of an integrated \vater management decision support system using WF.,\P in Dinajpur Sadar Upazlla In the northwest reglon ofBanglade,h The major water u,e:, Lnthe study area are irrigation, domestic and industrial water use, Meeting demand of various water uses. especially irrigation is a critical issue of the study area, Based on secondary and primary data collected in the ,tudy, demands for differem watcr uses, vi7.., migatlon, indl.l,trial and domestlc, were e,tlmated, A number of future ~cenarios ",'ere con,tructe(l, which included a reference scenario de,cribing the gro"'1h In sectoral demands following the trend in population growth, and a few other scenarios describing a numbers of policy options for optimal water allocation and meeting unmet demands WF.AP mudel ~imulalion revealed that monthly ma",,"um ',"ater demand Ihr domestic use is in March & Apnl, For industry, maximum ",mer demand is in May & June, and for agriculture in January to April, The water demand~ for domestic and mdustnal u~es were fully covcred: neither are there any urnnel demands in the base year. nor any unmet demands throughout the period of analysls, The average annual irrigation unmet demands for the years 2007, 2025 and 2045 are 33,R Ml1hon Ill', 55.6 Million mJ and 83.8 Million Ill' (190/0. 28% and 37% of the total annual water demand), respectively, The unmct agncultural water demands for the month April In the years 2007, 2025 and 2045 are 204 Ivllllion Ill), 242 Million m' and 29,2 Million Ill] (11.6%, 123% and 13% of the total annual water demand), ln~reased irrigation efficiency through the applicatlon of demand management tools (e g water pricing, subsidies, etc) would reduce unmet demands significantly; ho\\,evel', there will remain conslderable demand unmet in future, ebpeclally in the cri(ical month of Apnl. Impact of unmet demand reduction would be greater in seven unions (Fa7.ilpur, Kamalpur, Sekpura, ~hankarpur, Shashara, Sundarban and Uthrail), However, demand management tool> do not reduce the unmet demand, fu.lly e~peciaj]y in later years, Expansion of deep wbe wells (DTWs), however, would meet the demand fully, for which the number ofDT\"", will need to increase from 193 in 2007 LO318 in 2025 and 478 in 2045, However, (he required number ofDTW~ in the study area would be much les, if increase in irrigation efticleney also (akes place along with expal\~iol\ of DTWs, Implementation of a rubber dam in Punarbhaba river could potentially meet lmmet water demands in the command areas of Dmajpur Municipal, Chehclgazi. Aliapur and Sundarban unions in all monLh\ till 2045 XV! Chapter One Introduction 1.1 Backgroulld Managing water resources in the current world climate IS a major challenge for many cOI.mtncs. It is widely rccognized that there is an increasing nmge of dnvers llirecting current water rrumagement practice pressure of climate change and extreme events on water resources, the awareness and importance of sustainabllity, community lactors such as urban growth and education etc. The ratIOnale for the sustamablc development and management of freshwater resourees is clearly articulated in Chapter 18 of Agenda 21(United Nalions, 2000): "Today it is wl The management ofwatcr resources has become a critical need for Bangladesh due to growing demand and increasmg conflict among altcrnative uses (e.g. irrigation, water supply, sanilation, induslry, fisheries plus environmental and other in-stream demands) bccause of the rapid increase of population. There is \vater slress in many parts of the country. Mondal and Wasimi (2005, 2007) shows lhat with flow augmenlalion in major rivers, the demand of water can just be met with the waler available provided !be groundwater remains useable and adverse impacts due 10 climate change and upstream water dIversion do not take place. WARPO (200Ia) eslimates the total demand of "ater in 2025 at a staggenng 90,677 Mm'- In-strcanl demands constitute 56% of current demand, and agricultural demand lS the major 2 among consumptive demands. Demands in future will be high for many uses, more ~o in the agricultural seclor. Irrigation demands are expected to increase potentially by al least a quarteT by 2025 This study presenls a pilot study in the development and application of an integratcd water management decision SLlpportsystem in a small study area in Bangladesh. The decision support tool used was the Water Evaluation and Plannmg System (WEAP) (SET, 20(7). WEAP is increasingly bcing regarded as a useful planning tool, as cvidenced by its use across many parts of the world, c.g. Lake Naivasha, Kenya (Alfarra, 20(4); Ohfanls catchment, South Africa (Roy, 200S); Aral Sea region (Hanscn et aI., 1992); RIO Grandc Basin, USA, (D3Imer e! aI., 20(7); and Heng Shui City, Hehei Province, P. R. China (Olusheyi, 20(0). WEAP W3Screated m 1988, with the aim to be a flexib1c, integraJed, 3nd transparent planning tool Cor cvaluatmg thc sustainab,hty of current water demand and supply patterns 3nd explonng different long mngc scenarios (SEI, 2007). WEAP operates on the basic pnnclple of a water balance and can he applied to mLlnieipai and agricultural systems, a single watershed or complex transboundary n~er basin systems. WEAP can addTess a wide range of issues, e.g., sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation priorities, gr<:lLIndwater311dstream flow simulations, rcservOlr operations, hydropower gencration, pollution trJ,cking. ecosystem requirement" scenario analyses in understandmg the effects of different development choice", and project benelit-cost analyses. WEAP gives a hohstie, integrated picture of the supply and demand system of the study area at any pomt in time, and lmdcr different user-defined sets of conditions. This picture includes supplies availablc from rivers, reservOirs, and ] groundwater and demand needed for water withdrawal discharges and in-stream flow requlremcntS. Dinajpur Sadar Upazila in the northv'iesl region oflhe country was chosen as the study area. The major consumptive water requirements for the study area are Irrigation, domestic and municipal, and mduslnal wmer use, The present waler requirement for the Dinajpur Sadar Upa;,ila area is 144,16 Mm.1among that of which Irrigation water requirement is 136,59 ]I.1m' and domestic and municip"l requirement is 7.57 Mm] (IWM, 2005). The Dinajpur Sadar Upazila 1S formed by Upper Atraj River. Many of the off-takes of the dlslJibutarics of thi, river, which are major source~ of surface wmer. become dry dunng later part of the dry season. This cause, a stress, 011 agricultural production dunng the dry season. Thc situation lS aggravatmg day by day, Groundwater of thc basin l>, used for drinking water supply and for irrigating agricultural lands. A reeonnailosanec visit was made to the study arca in the beglnning of the study. Discussions with the ranners and officials of related urganizmions (e.g. BWDB, BMDA, DAE, Pourashava) revealed that changing cropping pattern over time resulted in mcreased irrigatIOn waler requirement and existing system of ST\Vs and DTWs are nol able to meet the demand. So, meeting dcmands or various waler uses is an issue of the Dinajpur Sadar Uparila area. The problem of waler demand management is expected 10 get compounded in future. Water demand throughout the study area is on the rise because or increase in human population, which causes a strain on agricultural producllon, household, industrial and other sectors, The change in water availability due 10 climate change ",'ill add to the problem. The management of water resources orthc Dinajpur Sadar Upazila area needs to focus on both supply and demand aspects, implying the need for a holistic lWRM approach. 4 1.2 Objectives The overall objective of the sludy W3S to develop a water nlanagcmcnt decision framework to satisfy lhe water needs or Din3jpuf Sadar Upazila area both in present and future conditions. Specific objectl\'es orlhe study area arc as follows: ij To develop an integrated water management dec18ion support syskm using \'IiEAP so Itware; li) To construcl different waler management sccnmios (e.g. demographic change, technological development, etc,), 1.3 Outline of the l\1ethodologJo' The methodology can be categorized into three c1asse~_pnm3f)' and 8econdary data collection, demand estimation for dIfferent uses, and construction of flllllTe demand and waler management scenarios. Most of the data used in the present study was obtained from secondary sources. The types of data mc1uded river discharge, groundwater ,toragc potential, irrigation requirements, number of induslnes, and domestic water use. The sources of these data were VatlOUS published and unpublished reports of vanous literature. government and non-govemment organl~ation such as Bangladesh Water Development (BV,'DB), Bangladesh Umversity of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Water Resources Planmng Organization (WARPO), Tnstitutc of Water Modeling (IWM) and Bangladcsh AgricultLlTalDevelopment CorporatIOn (BADC) and local officials of BADC, District Agrieulturc Extension (DAE), and Upazila Agricultural Extension (UAE). While data needed for domestic and agricultural demand estimation were available from the aforementioned secondary sources, the water use data for mdustrial water demand estimation werc obtained through questionnairc survey conducted by the author anlOng a number of sampled industrie5 Sector wise demands (irrigation, industria! water and domestic water supply) were estimated from the collected data on the basis of recommendation from different studies and repo*, and supplies together with supply priorities were eonligured ou the hasis of natIOnal policies. A numher of water demand and supply scenarios were constructed based on the existing trends and manogement plans and policies eonsl(lered in different government documents. 5 1.4 Structureoflhe Thesis Coments of this thesis are organi~ed in eight Chaplers_ Chapter two reviews critical issues and challenges in water reSOLm;esmanagement in (he global context eight. Chapter Two Literature Review 2.1 Introduction Thc countnes that arc now facing water shortages 2.2 Crilicallssues in Water Resources Management 2.2.1 Global Context The Increasc in numbers world of population trom 6 billion to 9 billion will be the main driver of water resources mmJagement for thc next 50 years. The \VorJd's fresh"ater resources are under increasing pressure. A combination of social inequily and economic marginall<:ation forces people living in extreme poverly to overexploit soil and forestry resourees, with damaging impacts on water resources. Watcr resources are thus incrcasingly under pressufC from population growth, economic activity mtensifying competItion for the water among users. \Vater withdrawals have increased more than twice as fast as population growth and currently one third of the world's population live in countries thaI expericnce medium to high water stress (GWP, 2000). Pollution is funher enhancing water scarcity by reducing watcr usability downstream. Challenges faced hy morc and more countrics in their struggle tor economic and social development are increasingly related to water, Thus, thc overal1 problem is caused hoth by inefficient governance and increased competition for the tinite resource. Current concems about climatc variability and climate change demand improvcd management of water resour~e~ to cope with more intcnsc natllral hazards. Thc critical issues from global perspective arc shown ;n FlgurC 2, 1. 7 I F ,"n Tn<""'#if cornjl@t_nj<>.r; =>c~te,=V Figure 2.J: Critical issues [rum global perspecli vc Meeting the basic human needs lor water, water supply and S Need for additIonal irrigation water (ahout 15-20%) 10 produce thp, i'lOd is likely 10 Imparl pressure on other human and ecosystem uses leading to senotLS conflicts. En"uring the integnly ecosystems through sustainable waler resources management is another challenge. Land and waler resources management mu,;t ensurc that vital ecosystems are maintained and that adverse effects on other nalural resources arc consldered and where possible reduced when development and management decisions are made. Providing security 10 hllman life and other economic, social and environmental systems from floods, droughts, polllition and other water related hazards is a challenge. 2.2.2 Context of Bangladl.'Sh TnBangladesh, so far we have given eJTort in solving the immediate prohlems WitllOlit giving adequale attention to long term effects m relation to its social and environmental consequences, Wilh the grov,1h of population and economic development, demand or water has also grown eonsiderahly creating slress on thi5 finile resource, If adequate mea5ure' 10 improve waler lise efficiency and consef"e 8 this scarce reSOllTCCarc not taken, pnwiding water secun(y would be mcreasingly difficult. Total population will increase hy 40% from 12'l million to lSI lmllion hy 2025, and 224 1TI1ilionhy 2050 (WARPO, 200 Ia). Banglade5h have recently achIeved lood self sufficiency utilizing meager lund and scafce dry season water resource,; despite recurrent setback IhrOllgh floods and drought. In spite of thai 50 percent of the population qill lives in poverty_ Maintaining rice and protein senmly will require yield improvements and agricultural wIens; fication, particularly as 3gricultural lund per capita is expecled (0 markedly reduce and a large decline in fish production. Food ,ecunty will remam under pressure as agncllHural land is being taken up for "rball ami other uses, Capture lishing on the floodplains and illIor hasins, a traditional activity of the poor, is declining rapidly and will disappear a1togelher unless proaeti\'e measures are laken. During the monsoon season, 20% of the country is inundated each year, with o"er 60% in a peak flood (WARPO, 200lb). It 1~generally these peak noods, which typically occur every ten ycars that bring se"ere h3rdship to lhose 3ffccted. By cuntrast the dry season fT(}mNovember to M Quality of surface w3ter is under increasing prcssurc from industrial cxp3nsioll and poor s3nitatioll. Arsenic contamination of shal10w aqUIfers has recently been identified as a major problem with about 25% or the population exposed to levels exceeding Bangladesh standards (0.05 mg/litTe). A further 21% li~e in areas where eVidence suggests thai ar~enic eoneentratlOlJ exceeus elll'rcllt WHO standards (0.01 mg/litre) (\VARPO, 2(01). 2.2.3 Need for I\VR.c'1 It is e~ident that the many different u"es of water re~OllTees are interdependent. Ground\\iater, surface water. Clpstream 3ml downstre3m water arc all inextricably linked and management of the water resource must take this into 3ccounL Traditionally water resources m3nagement problems in Bangladesh weTe dealt with following sectoral and fragmented 3pproaehes. 3nd potentially, undesirable long-term consequence,> were not taken into eonsidenltion (ChowdhClry, 2004, 2006; Huda, 20(5). Dnven hy fears of food insecurity, decision making in water resources planning h3S been dominated by irrigated agncultural and economic return. Policy objectives have been SCI without consideration of the implieallons for other water ClseTSand without consultation across sectoral and institntional boundaries. This has orten led to go~erning bodies representing conflicting interests. Other smkeholdern, not tidly regarded in the water sector, arc now making a growing claim on water resources. fhese include stakeholders concemed wllh the vital ecosystems, fisheries, tourism and recreation. IWRM is a signiticant step in addressing the shortcomings 01'traditional approaches. "Integration" refers to the notion that resource management should be approached from a broader perspective, taking all potenllaltradc-offs and dilTercnt scales in space and time into account. 1l also means recognising that there arc many competing interests in how water is used and allocated and these varions stakeholders should be active participants in water management. The traditional sectoral top down role of water professionals is being challenged and the demand is for integratIOn-between sectors, between users, and equally Importantly across the dilTerent components of the water cycle (GWP, 2000). 2.3 Demand and Supply Scenario in Bangladesh 2.3.1 Watcr Demand The principal use of water in Bangl:ldesh is for irrigation, which has mcreased significanliy since the lllld-1970s. With only about one-third of the cultivated area in Bangladesh presently under imgatiun, this trend is expected to continue. At the same time, demand for other uses of water w111 increase along with population. 10 urbanization, and econollllC development. Domestic. commercial and induslnal needs have low consumptive demands but are ascribed the highest priority under the National Water Policy (WARPO, 2()(Jla). Water lor domestIC lise is a basic hUlllan need. while commerce and industry arc so imporlant to Bangladesh that they should not be constrained unnecessarily by water availabihty. The supply of dependable dnnking water for a growing population rnuSI also be ell5ured. About 95 percent of drinking water in Bangladesh is derived from groundwater (WAR PO, 20(13). Agriculture has the highest over-Ill consumptive demand in the country_ Over the Ia>l three decades, much effort has been put into intensification of agriculture by promotion of dry season cropping lhrough imgallon. The National \Vater Policy nevertheless accord, a lower priority m the future to 'Waler for agriculture compared to domestic, municipal, and non- consumptivc uses. The minimum dry sea"on water requiremcnts for fishenes in rivers aTe in the form of pools of water for refuges. However, from Apnl onwards through the monsoon season there is a need fOT nowing \\'aler along the migrator)' routes. fhese routes arc of two lypes: those to upslream spavvning areas; and 'those connecting nvers to water bodIes and nood plains. In- stream needs lor fishenes concern only the routes 10 upstream spawning areas. as lhe routes bet\\'een rivers and 'Waler bodics are not improved by inerea"ed river flows, Some flows are normally set aside to cnsure minimum nows in the river system, Consumptlve demands represenl 44% of the tolal water demand and in-stream demands lhe balance of 56%. Agricultural demands, amount to 32% of total demand (WARPO, 200Ib). The main deternlinanl in overall demand for water resources in the future is the growth ofirrigation demand. Waler supply for urban and nlTal domestic amI commercial use will more than double, but this repre;enls a very small porlion of o~eral1 demand, Irrigalion demands are expected to increase potentially by al least a quarter over the next 25 years, depending upon the exlent 10 which future agricultural production reql1lrements are mel lhrough yield improvements as opposed to intensificalion. As per proJedion of the study (Mondal and \Vasimi, 2005), tolal irrigated area by 2025 may approximately double o~er lhe next 25 years. 11 The International Water Management Institute used irrigmion efficiency up to 70% for country level demand assessment and for Bangladesh the figure "as 60% (Seckler et aI., 1998). Both irrigation coverage and inlensily in Bangladesh are gradually increasmg over lime resulting in higher efficiency. The rate of increase ha, heen more in recent years due to some major changes in government policy Oil groundwater management and regulation, and due to large-scale pnvati/alion of groundwater irrigalion since 1988-89 (IWM I, 1996). 2.3.2 Water Availability 2.3.2.1 Surface Water Availability In Bangladesh, network or rivers of which (he Padma, the MeglIDa and the Jamuna and [heir tributaries numbering ahout 230 with a lOlal1cngth of 24140 km covering the cOlmtry flow down from the nOith of the south to the Bay of Bengal. Millions cubIc meter of surface waler flows across these netwoTk ol'rivers. Surface water is the largest component of water resources available to Bangladesh. TIle total ~nnual TunolT of B~nglaJesh is 1239 billion cubic meters (SCM), of which 85% occurs during the monsoon period rrom June to October (Ahmad ct a!., 2001), For thc remaining period of the year, neither there is significant flow lrom upstre~m nor there is much rainfall within Bangladesh, Surface water, particularly in the dry season, is critical to such uses as salinity control. habitat preservatIOn, emUe!1t dilution and navigation. It is also widely used for agriculture and to meet domestic and industrial demands. The h'ttatest part of surface resources, [lowing in the major rivers, is however, difficult and expensive to access. Smrace water is an important strategic resource for Bangladesh in the dry season. It is the only resource for ,orne 44% of the country (barring some small pockets of gronndwater used for domestic and municipal SLlpplies), and can be used to augment all areas where deficits arise, Under the directions of the NatIonal Water Policy, howcver, much more attention is now being givcn to in-stream demands and the environmental bene11ts that will come from healthy river systems (WARPO, 2001b), Sinec many of the rivers !lowing through Bangladcsh are cross-bonier rivers (52 rivers from India), water availability in Bangladesh in the dry season is affected by 12 water U~eand management activities in Bangladesh. Reducllon of dry season i10ws in the Ganges due to con51mctioll of the Farakka barrage ha, hadly impacted agriculture, fisheries aml ecosystem in the somhwest region in Bangladesh While there has been the Ganges Water Treaty since 1996, no other treatics or agreement have been in place tor the other rivers, Recenl Tndian plan of hking rivers from one basin to another is considered to be a threat of sign; (lean! magnitude to water resources analysis III Banglu 2.3.2.2 Groundwater Availability Groundwaler plays a key role in the successful development of irrigated agriculluTe in a major pari of Bangladesh. The developmenl of groundwater for irrigation of dry season crops has seen a tremendous growth In all the regions of Bangladesh. Pry season irrigation is generally limited to a single crop, either boro or a non-rice crop. The assessment of resource potential hlls been limited to those areas where groundwater development is feasible, in terms of resource aval1abJlity, access and q\Lality. For ground,~aler development to be sustainable, Teplenislunent mu~t exceed the nd quantity exlrJ.cted from the aqLlifer system (the difference bet"een the actual quantities ahstraeted by the luhewells minl.ls the deep percolation returns), The replenishment, in the li)nn of recharge, occurs largely during the monsoon season when rainfall is well in excess of evapotranspiration and when flooding occurs Oil most flood phase~. The return flow Irom surface water irrigation is also a source of recharge 10 the aquifer system during the dry season. When considering the potentIal for groundwater development it is therefore important to take note of the influence of ,\Lrfaee water lmgation. A comparison, of potential demands Oil groundwater availability indicates that deficits may arise in both the Southwest and Northwe8t regions, princIpally along the western border where recharge tend, to be less (WARPO, 2001b), Fl.lrther expansion of grl1l1nd-water migation nevertheless ca\Lses seasonal water levels to decline further, although in those arcaS whcre irrigation ISalre~dy highly un'eloped, this mCan a small ehangc from cl.lrrcnt 1cvels, 13 2.3.3 National Policies with Demand Management All South Asian govcmmenls have endorsed the principles of TWRM, and incorporated it mlo their general \ValeTpolicy statement'> in ,orne fOim or another. III all South Asian countries national water partnershIps ha~", been established Imder the Global Wmcr Partnership_ Previous water management approaches in Bangladesh were sectoral and narrowly focused on either combating natural disasters or attaimng seJf-suffi~iency 1Jl food pmduction through maSSiVe dry season irrigation prognmlmes, lacking any mlegralcd approach thai seeks to achieve national development goals. There ha~ been a start In the paradigm shin to integra1e(Vcoordinatcd appro~ch in water resource~ management thmllgh the preparatIon of the National Water Poliev (Ministry of Water Resources, 1999) and subsequenlly the National Water Management Plan (WARPO, 2001). In the National Water Policy (1999), water allocation prionties during erineal perious arc given III the following order: Jome~lic and municipal uses, non-consumptive u,e (e.g. navigatIOn, fisherics and wildlife), sllstcnance of the river regimc, and othe-r consumptivc and non-consumptive uses sllch as irrigation, induslr)', environment, salmit)' management, and recreation . .Ecosystem anu environment get the second rank in the priont)' after domestic waler supply, 11Je above oHler of priority could however be changed on specific socio-economie criteria of an area by local bodies through local consensus, 2.3.4 Demand Management Tools Tools and techniques to promote water demand management can be clas~l fled III many ways but the followmg four categones are convenient (Rosegrant, 1997). !nslirurions and law,,': Supply and demand systcms for water always exist within a set of water rights, land rights. social and civil institutions, and legal regimes, Some are formal and others intorma1. some modern and others traditlonal, somc international and others locaL They all playa role more accurately, as great a role as granted to them as do both mouem and traditional institutions for conflict resolution. Few indeed arc the socielie, that do not haye ,;ome ~ystcm for granting permancnt or temporary rights to use water, 14 A1arket-ba,ed measures: Water prices aml tariffs, and waler subsidies, appear in a variety of fom\s, Although pricing is currently touted widely, careful analyst> sec it as a necessary hut insufficient incentive for achieving efficiency, equity, and sustainahi1Jly. Most would argue Ihm subsidies should be explicitly justIfied; that water tariffs shollJd be designed to encourage conservation, notJuslln recover COS\8; and lhat some fom] of Meline pricing ,hould be adopted to provide water for basIC needs of even the pooresl household. Direct intervcn!wn: Governments and water sllpplicrs can, of course, mlervcnc directly by providing service'>, installing consuming or consening equipment, fixing leaks. adjusting pressure, pTO~iding sewerage, and so on, Pl.lbhcly fl.lllded waler and s3llitaticm utilitics typically Lmdcrtakemany 1.1f thcsc functions. 2.4 Watcr Resources Planning Tool DilTcrcnt Decision Support System (DSS) technologies have been used III both developing and developed counI1;es. Decision support systems constitute a class of cl.lmputer-based infl.lnnation systems including knov.-ledge-based systems that supporl dec1sion-making actlvitics. A properly-designcd DSS lS an interactive software-based system intended to help decision makers compile useful inlormation from raw data, documents, personal knl.lwledge, aud/or business models to idenllfy and solve problems and make decisions. DSSs arc analytICal tOl.lls,which can be uscd to assist planners and decision makers in developing and comparing alternative courses of action and preparing preferred intcrventions for subsequent decision-making. DSS apphc3tions has becomc one of the essential tools that help the decislOn makers, professionals and managers as well as persOimel at other levels to plan, operate, control and take their decisions on a sound and holistic basis. 2.4.1 Decision Snpporl Tools Used in Bangladesh Sl.Ime I.Ifthe Deci8ion Support Systems used in decision making for narnraVwater re,Ol.lree management and planning m Bangladesh are described below: 15 DSSfur NijhulII DWlp Integra/ed Project: The project include, construction of cross dams to enhance accretion, construction of embankments to proted land from tides and ,tomlS, landuse allocalion" lor old and new land inside and outside embankments and development projects for seUicmcn!s, aquacullure, livestock, etc, in Kijhum Dwip. The N1Jhurn Dwip DSS was able to provide guidelines for an allocation of land to different types of land usc (agriculture, aquaculture, livestock and forestry), The model calculates the "moun! of accreted land based on estimates done in the Mcghna Esluary Study (MES). The main output of the model was an economic analysis (CEGTS, 2000), in which, costs werG calculated from mvestmcnt and mamlenanCG costs fur construction of cross dams and embankments and development projects, and benefits were calculated from as,umption of revenues from dilTercnt landllse, e.g. agricuHlIre, aquaculture, livestock and forestry. DSS fi>r Shrimp-crop o(rhr So"lh'H!.I'1 Rt'{;ion: The greater Khulna district was chosen as the case study area for this DSS application where a major change in land lise is laking place due to shrimp cultivation alternating the traditional paddy CUlllvalion. This DSS prescnts three overall objectives, i.e., national uevelopment, social development and sustainable development. Strategy was to allocate land to different production regime~. The DSS evalu3tes the lmpacls of re-allocaling the areas under thc different produclion regimes in terms of cconomic, social and environmental cnteria. The shrimp and agricultural production 3ctlvlties were analyzed considering thc complete cham of activitics from mpots, prouuetion and dislribution of the outputs. An economic asscssment model calculates the retorns from thc different production regimes, while social anu environmental impact as;e<,smcnt sub-models quantify the various social and environmental indicators (CEGIS, lOOO). DSS for Karna!"li Ril'<'f BasfIl Management: Karnafuly river hasin faces upstreanl inunuation flooding in the down stream, shortage of migation water, sahnity mtruSlon, pollution at the source of water supply in the ChiUagong city. and siltation at Chillagong port. In 2002. Bangladesh Powcr Development Board (BPDB) engaged Institute of\\'ater Modelling (lWM) to develop a computer based De~ision Support System (DSS) lor the opcration of the reservoir. IWM (2006) has successfully 16 developed the DSS. whIch integrates an inflo'Wprediction model. rosen-cir operation model and Geographic Infon11ation System (GIS). DSS for Aleghna DhonaJioda Irrigation Project: The pilot DSS delivered (0 Bangladesh Waler Development Board (BWDB) by SWMC (2001) was developed in the Mcghna Dhonagoda lrrigation Project (MDIP) to test its applicabl1ily in inigation system management. The Decisiull Support System (DSS) was an advanced IDOl based on Geographicallnfonnation System (GIS) software and numerical modelling techniques_ The issues included in8ufllcicnt water at the wurcc, inadequate conveyance oi' the irrigation syslem, deterioration of the Irrigation system, incorrect operation of structures, excess withdrawal at head end and social conflicts. The project amled at updating the DSS for the irrigation season of 2000 and validating the DSS for !he irrigation season of200J in order to assess its usefulness. DSS was found suitable for assessing irrigation scheme performance, 2.4.2 Decision Supporl Tools Used in Other Countries The follo\ving DSSs appl ieatiollS in other counlri es arc described in below: DSS for irrifwtlOn Water Management in Sugarcane Plan/alia", llldollesw: The Decision Support System was designed for sLlpporting irrigation management in sngarcane plantation in Indonesia (AbdLlllah, 2(03), Input data for the modcl where climatic data, soil and crop data as well as infrastructlJre data related to the sugarcane plantation area. The f(mr units of database management system (DBMS), forecasting simulation (FORSIM), soil water balance (SWAT), and geographic mfonnalion (GIS) was used for data management, predicting climatic data, simulale water demand, and presentation of the model In graphic fonn. The DeciSIon Support System Model (DSS) was applied successfully in managing irrigation system in a sugarcane plantation. 1JSS lor improving Waler f'lanll/llg and Mwwgel/lenr in tlie Jordan Valley: The purpose of this case study was to manage the water demand and supply of the main water camers in the Jordan Valley. The ohjeetive of this tool was to collect and 17 process all the available and relevant infonmtion related to water management and then feed ilto the Jordan V,I.lJey Alllhority Ilydrauhc Model to starllhe simulation and optimIzatIOn processes DSS "as used extensively to solve this problem (\Vahshch,2007). DSS for Arge.\' PilOI lJaslII. Romania. A dec1510n Sllpport system was designed III Argcs Basin w1til multiple water deviation and water \L'>ers,affected by !lash l1oods. The model developed here was mtended to be used to aid in the dc\'elllpmcnt of efficient and sustamable Ilood management options. rhe goal was to conslTUCla smllllation tool, which can he used to easily and quickly identify good alternatIves lor flood management that can then be further relined or used In operational decision making (Adler et al.2003). DSS for Krishna River BaSin, Maharashtra, lndia: In Krishna R,ver Basin a DSS was developed 'Ouch that it provIdes the Water Man DSS fiJI' Waler Resources of Ihe Syr Darya River Basin, Kvrgvzsran- Central Asia's Syr Darya River Basin faces a multllude of' water policy, management, and technical challenges. The Decision Support System (DSS) was developed to improve the capacity for planning, controlling. and allocating water resources in the Syr Darya Ri~er Basin. The DSS was improved flow measurement and control, and was contained infoffi13tion for tbe riparian countries along the basin that was reducing the potential for water allocation conflicts (RiversiJe Techno logy, 2002). 18 nss lor Waler Resources 111anagemenl in Semi-Arid RegIOn, Brazil. Serious water confllCls were arising frequently in the 1\orthcust of Brazil. 111,000,000 km' semi-arid area wllh a total population of about 15 million people. Rivers are mlenniltcnt and groundwater wa, Clsual1yuncertain and poor In temlS of quality. The vulnerability of society and ecosystem of Brazilian semi-arid dependmg on water 3vailability. An lmporlanl task of the model W 2.5 WEAPDSS 2.5.1 Description of the \VEAP WEAl' is a microcompmcr tool for Irrigated water resources plmming. \\'"EAP is short for Water Evaluation and Planning System and was originally developed by the Stoekhohn Environment Institute at Boslon, USA (Sm, 2007), The Hydrologic Engineering Cenler of the US Anny Corps of Engineers funded ,ignifieant enhancements. A n\lmher of agencies, including lhe UN, World Bank, USAID and the Global Infrastructure Fund of Japan provided project support. WEAP hils been applied in water assessments in the United States. Mexico, China. Central ASIa, Africa, Egypt, Israel and Im.ha. Conventionally supply onmted simulation models are nol always adeq\late, Over the last decade, all integrated approach 10 waler development has emerged which places water supply projects In the context of demand side issues, as well as issues of water quality and ecosyslem presentation, WEAP aims to incorporate these values inlo a practical tool for water resources plmming. It provldes a comprehensive, flexible and user-friendly framework for policy analys'<;. \Valer managers and policy rnaker:s are in need to have tools at their disposal that will SlippOr!lhem in their decision-making. A growing number of water professionals arC linding WEAP to be a \lsef\ll addition to their toolbox ofmode1s, database" spreadsheets and other softwar~. WEAP is an integrated waler management tool that allows basin evaluations ineluding all water related activities III a 'pecilie area . .Focus ofWEAP is halancing water ~tLpplyand water demand m a swi1l and transparent way, \VE>\P, m contrast to 19 many other tools, 15 no! optimisation oriented in the sense thai (he optimal water allocation will be pre~enlcd. The entIre approach is based on scenarios (alternatives) III ensure that stakeholden;, water managers and policy makers are actively involved in the entire process of planning in order to guarantee the o\'v11ershlp feeling of the final decIsIons taken. 2.5.2 ,\pplication of the WEAl' WE'!'P is increasingly being regarded as a useful planning tool, as evidenced by its use across many parts of the world. The some of WEAl' applications are described below: Water Planning fur the Srate of C"llfornia, United State.I', 1997-2009: The Caliromia W3ter Plan provides a framework for watcr managers, legislators, and the puhlic to consider options and make decl,ions regarding California's water future (Yates et aI., 2005). The Plan, which is updated every five years, presents basic data and infomJation on Calitomia's water resources including waler slipply evaluations and assessments of Integrated Wala Resources Management jiJr Lake Nmvasila, Lake IVaivasha Basin, Kenya, 20113-2004: The study focused on developing, for the first I1me in the Lake Naivasha Basin, an integrated waler resource mall3gemenl model through the use of. WEAP III asscss the situation m the whole catchment, identify where problems and weaknesse~ exist and seek their improvement (AIfarra, 2004). The main problem was delermined not to be a 5hortage of water, but rather the management of the lake. The study recommended that a ba:,m-wide legally mandaled body (involving all levels) be 20 established 10 oversee water use Other strategies mc1udcd capacity building of stakeholders on water. Water demand management scenarios in II water-stressed hasin in Sourh Afnca, 2002-2003: WEAP "as used to build a model al10wing for the simulation aml analysis of various waler allocation scenmios and, above all, scenarios of users' behavIOr, Water demand management \Vasconsidered m scenarios and slnJl.l\;llions for diverse climatic situations from ury yeaT'> to normal year; were conducted (Levile et a1.,2002). Strategies for Wilter u.,e in the Ami Sea Region, Central Asia, 1990-1992: The Aral was shrinking as a result of intellsi~e withdrawals from its lwo feed rivers, primanly for agricultural development. Regional impacts included severe ecological degradation and detenoration of public health, WEAP was applied to the 1\'(0 major rivers feeding the Ara!. Scenarios ofwmer demand ami supply pronded a framework for evallmting future eomiJllOllS and policies for amelioration. This wa~ the first comprehensive analysis ofwaler accounts for the Ami region (Raskin et aI., 1992). Development StlHiJe" in Rajasthan, Rajastha, India. 1991-92: The Rajasthan waler crisis was characterizcd by mixed featllres: arid climate with limited natural water reSO\lrees, heavy b\lt primitive-level crop productIOn a~ the economic mainstay, high population density and severe poverty, a hierarchical but grid locked institution system, and long-civilized but strongly indigenous culture, to name a few. In collaboration with the Jaipur Instit\lte Jor Development St\ldles, located in Rajasthan, WEAr was used to model allernative water reSO\lrces development strategIes in order to re--orient Rajasthan towards sustainable water development (Rao, 2005). AccUlmtinf? for fViuer Supply and Demand. Georgia, United Siales, 1994. The study modeled the water 811pplyand demand of the water stressed basin and provided federal, state, and local water agencies with a comprehensive look at the total water resource of the \vatershed. The results were used in resolving interstate conflicts on water allocation (US Army Crops of Engineers, 1994), • Chapter Three Study Area 3.1 Gent'ralOven-iew The study area of DinaJPur Sadar Upazila is located in the northwest region of the country, The study area occupies an area of 354 34 s(I,km. induding 0,49 ,q km forest area, It is located bd\\'een 25"28" and 25"48' north latitudes and between 88°34' and 89°46' east longitudes The Dinajpur Sadar Upazlla area is hounded on the north h}' Kaharole and Khansama upazilas. on the east by Chirirhandar upa,ila, on the south by Indm and 01\ lhe west by B,ral upa,ila The Dma]pur Sada! Upaziia i, formed by Upper Atral River Many of tile otHake\ of the dlstributaries of this river. "h,eh are major sources of surface water, become dry dunng later Palt of the dry ,eason The locatIOn map of the study area is given Figure 3 1 Dmajpur Sadar Upazila has a gro.\<;area of 35,932 ha, cultivable are~ of 13,524 ha, total household of 90}})9 and total populatiotl of 4.24.776 a<;of year 2006 (RRS, 2006) 'llte major consumptive water requirements for Ihc ,tudy area arc irrigatIOn, dome,tic and indmtnal water u,e For the year 2003, the total water requirement of the study area was 14416 Mm' of which irrigalion water requiremenl was 13659 Mm' and dllme<;tie and municipal reqUl1'erncntwas 7 57 Mm' (1Wl\I, 2005) 22 89"301' ., -". ..,. .'RA!. ,..". r . •• West Bengal ...,.(INDtA) Figu", J.I: Location map oflhc study area 3.2 Hous~hold.\ and Population According to the Distnel Community Series lUllS, 2006), Dinajpm Sadar Upazila con!>lsts of 01 paurashava, JO union parishads, 205 mouza~, 80 mahallahs, lOS villages and 90,639 households. Distributllln 01' hnu~eholds by type shows that 98.30% are d"elling units. 0 8S% In!>t1tut1onaland 0 85% arc other units. The a\'erage huusehold size for the study area i, 4,6 persons For both rural and urban areal the si?e is the same The total population ol'lhe upazila is 4.24,776 ofv"hich 2.21.697 arc male, and 2,03,079 are females, The decadal population growth rate 1, 18,69% and annual compound gro\vth rate i, I 73% The populat1lln and demographic characteristics arc depicted in Table 3 ] shows the populatIOn density ol'the area Table 3.1; The area, population and hteracy rate by Dinajpur Sadar Upazl1a Population Area I Lileracy (sq. Pallra~hava IJnion Household Total Male Femalr ral," km) 354.34 I 01 10 33247 1424776 22]697 203079 58.7 Sour~e: BBS (2006) 3.3 Climate The chmate of the study area. as it" the case rorthe overall Bangladesh, " iJlnueneed by lhe el'fect of South-Vo/est mOllsoon carrying warm, mOl!>tand warm driel easterly trade "ind, Irom the Indian Ocean "Ihe average monlhly lainfalt maximum ami minimum temperature re~orded m la~t fifieen years at Ballglade,h Mel€o[(Jlogieal Depallment Dinajpur monitoring station is presented in Figure 3,2 and Figure 3.3 The average rainfall is highest from June thruugh to September ["he highest a\'erage rainfall (1503mm) is recorded for monlh of June The lowe>;t average rainfall (0 21J3mm) is recorded for month of January, The overall monthly average maximum temperature of Dinajpur station reached a maximum of 33°e Ihe h1ghesl temperalures arc generally in Aprillhmugh Septembcr, and the lowe>;ttemperatulcs in December \0 February Monthly average maximum tcmperatures ri,e 21 to 33''( and average minimum temperatule are 10 to 2G"C. 24 Monthly Average Rainfan (mm) 1800,I-c------15.03 ,38 15,00 .j 14 :; 11.54 12,00 I " 10,39 [ :i- f J, , 9.0() ] -,. r: I i- .i. 6.95 5.83 , i" I, "i: ,,' 'i, -I: 600 j ,, , I: , 't, 259 t) 3,00 I " , ,,; :1 ',' . :1- I, ", I:" JO.20 0.40 0,55 , ill ---~ fj< , , 0.00 = , = en~l' " , " ~- _r_O~~~2J ,~F,b M~Ap' M'Y ,~'ill A", S'p Oct No" D~ Figure 3.2: Monthly average rainfall at Dinajpur station Muothly Average Tempel'llture (Celcius) Jul Aug Scp Oct Nov Dec [-+- ~::;=-MinlnUln! Figure 3.3: Monthly average maximum and minimum temperature at Oinajpur station (ceJcius) 2-" 3.4 Topography and Physiography The study area is relatively flat, sloping towards sOlltheas! and soutl;west However. the land slope is steeper in the northern part while the slope is gentle in the southern part In general land slope "ariel, from a 63 m1km to 041 m/km Though the study arca lie:, near the foothilLI of Himalayan mountain rangc. there is no hill or lllilock (lWM, 2005) The study area is loeated at the northwestern end of the Bannd Tract More than 50% of the area of Oinajpur Sadar lies with the Barind Tract Surface elevation in the study area varies from 25 masl to 32 masl and is cornpn~ed of relatively flat land, This land comprise!, mostly heavy elay loils. largely rcd in cololll' in the study urea However, there arc areas of loamy and sandy :'01l!, near \-\'atercOllrseSand also in ~ome upland areas The elay solis, ''lith h'gh blilk demity and 10\\ perrneabil1ty, are ideal for puddling water for rice cultivallon but render :,oil tillage for other crops dimelllt Soil organic matter levels are low due to mimmal return of organic maHer to riee fields (SMEC, 2006a). Slope, In the Barind tract. which ha, non.alluvial soils, are generally steeper and flooding IS milch Ie>s widespread than in most pam of the alluvial zone Most of the region', soils are capable of high levels of productivity O'AP2, 1')'J3). Almost thc entlre area is underlined hy ul\comolidated Recent to Sub-IZecellt allu\lal sediments laid down by nver drammg from lhe foothills of the l-limalayas rhc physiographic units of the study area can be 1uen!itied a~ Old Hunalyan Piedmont Plain. YOllng Himalayan Piedmont Plalll, and Barmd Tract. The surface geomorphic features of the area cxhibits subdued relief and gentle undula!loJl> \-\'llh nearly levcl ndges and shallow valleys (SMEC, 2006b) 3.5 Hydrogeological Setting Based on lilhological characterization and utilizatioJl potent1ahty of the aqlldel units the sub-surface geological formations within 104m average depth, of the ,tudy area are grouped and c1a~~itied into three horizons, Upper i-lorinm' Topo()lI. Aquitard-I and Aqlllfcr-1, Ivhddle Hori70n: Aquitard-2 and Aquifcr-2. Lowcr Horizon: Aquitard- 3 and Aquifer-3 (1W1\1,2005) I\I\-'M(2005) stu(ly revealed thaI "ithin 104 m sludied depth, on a\'erage (ota164 73 m thickness of sub-surface sedIment ;0 the good ~'luireJ'. Presence of 62% highly transmissive aqwfer material in ,hallow depth indicates excellent opportunity for su:,tainable groundwater development and low ~o,l lrTlgation with high capacIty migation ",ells in the study area. Transrni~;;lV<"lyvalue ranges bet,,'een 1000 m2/day and 1400 m'/day and specific yield values bdween 0.13 amJO.18. I\'iivl (2005) study found that in the Greater Dinajpur District, arseillc COn~eJltration is helow contammation leveL There is no Buron and Fluoride toxicily. ho\vever, Mangane,e coneentrallon is high in some places which might create potahility and acceptability problems. Gruundwater nitrale shows pomt contamination mainly where open latrine is located in vicilllty of drinking water sources such as a hand whewell Electrical Conductivity of groundwater is mostly low « 200.uS/~m) and unirormly distributed Sod,um Absorption Ratio (SAR) value n, al,o low 3.6 Drainallc lind River System The main rivers flowmg through Dinajpur Sadar Upwila are the Alral and the Purnabhaba The AtraJ River originates about JO km nortbeast or Shiliguri town of We,t Bengal (India) The Punarbhaba Rivel originates from the depre,s~d lowlands of Baliadangi upazila in Thakurgaon district and ultimately becoilleo a tnbuLary of the Ganges The ,mal! River Dhepa all offohool of the Karatoya.Atrai (I3Ufl I ista) ri\'er, The river onginated rrom thc right-bank of the Atrai near Mohanpur (2.'jc5.1':'\ latitude, 88"43'c longitude) in the greater Dinajpur Sadar Upazlla und flowed southeast direction. Then it turned south near Setabganj. llochaganj alld after following a meander course up to Poi-Chak (25°38')\ latitude and 88"37'10 longltude} the nver debouches into the Punarbhaba (Banglupedia, 2006) Rivers arc rlavigable only by' small country boat> There are some low lying arcas and small bcels in the study area but these usually dry up lJl the dry scason. Low lyillg areas and beels are COlUlcCtcdto the nvers by a number of khals. AvailabJiity of 110w in the nvers, which are the major source, of surface water, become \'ery low dry during the latter part or the dry season The nwr or Punarbhaba in fact. becomes dry day (March. April and May) 27 3.7 Existing Agriculiure Practice In the study area, crops are gro"n in rain fcd and irrigated caudillOn,; 85% of total population of this area is very dependent on agriculture. The mO~llTllportant actl'-;!] in agriculture is grain production Rice is cultl\'aled in X2% of total land of I)LnajpUJ Sadar (DFJ[), 2002) HYV lloro, Wheal, Maize. Potato. Oilseeds and Ran, \-egclabks are the mam Rabi crops, while Kharif-] crops are HYV Aus, R. .-\us. Jute, I • HYV Aman followed by HYV Bow • HYV Arnan followed by wheat • BY\' Aman followed by plll<;e~,Itcc!.I kaun follo\"icd by wheal • H'l'V Arnan followed by Mai/.e • !-lYV Arnan followed by !-lYV Aus followed by Maize • HYV Aman followed by potato,.' ground nut • HYV ,\man followed by rabi vcgetable followed by summer vegetables • Sugarcane! Banana Awarenebs among the farmer, regarding modern technology of crop production pre-'ails in the ,tudy area, The water resources management analysis hu..1developed the OptlllnS for irngatlOn from groundwater resources to hoost up agriwlwral production lrngation is the main factor for illcrea,ing agricultural production ,pecially the HYV Paddy, Shallow Tubewelb a~ well a, Deep Tubewell, arc wIdely u,ed 10 the study area for lrrigatioll of all crupI 3.8 W~tcr Use In Dmajpur Sadar Upazila agriculture il the principal economic activity ~nd (hc main user of"ater Water is ll~ed for a vanety of purposes wlthin the study area, incilldlllg Irrigation, potable and industrial water ,upply; and navigation l"he ;tudy area reile, on groundwater re,ource3 for both tuwn and village dome~tic water ,upplie~ and for irrigation and indu,try. In rural areal of the st,ldy area water is used lar various dumestic purpo>es including drinking, prcparatlon or food and cooking. bathing, 28 cl~llning>washing and personal hygiene, "alering of vegetllble~ and garden; and watering ofhveslock. 3.9 Irrigation System and Coverage Northwest Bangladesh is highly developed agriculturally. J( ha, the large;t ~rea of irrigated crops of any region in Bangladesh (WARJ'O, 200]). Most irngatiml jq from qhallow tubewells (5TW,). Shallcm lubcwclls have a 75 to 150mm cusmg and vary in depth from 15 to 50 metres, They are operated by molorised pump tubewell~ and have an average now of 14 hler/sec. Due to the ~hortagc of surface waler and aval1abl1ily of suitable aqUIfer in the study area, present irngation ~yslems mainly d",pend on groundwater Surface water irrigation sy~tcms have been developed in sume place> although the scope for reserving large volume of water is limited D'I Wo,also are used for groundwater lrrigation. Each DTW has 600-800m long brick lined canal depending on the ~apacity of the well and soil types The Dinajpur Sadur Upazila irrigution coverage by different technology is given in 'fable 3.2, Tahle 3.2: Dinajpur Sadar Vpa7.ila irrigation coverage Tech nol"~ -1\'sc CrolHl ;,e irri~alion i,-,;g,nion "",crage Totallt. rea Mode of ir";lI'lti"n (no-.) colCrag" (ha) (%j To!,,1 Cult. area t>TW STW LLP DTW srw LI,P DT\\' SfW U,P (hal (h,,) '59.1, ]7.7.1~ n" 12.22~ 1J~ 1972 15~HJ 27~ " " ~ Source' BADe (2007) The Table 3.2 ~hows that 116 DTVI-'" 12,224 STWs, and 134 LLP were in OperallOn under Dinajpur Sadar Upazila during 2007 lor providing IrngatioJl According to the BADe statistics, 87% and 11% irrigatl()n co,crcd by DTWs and STWS, and re,ll 01" the area covered by LLP. Chapter Four ",,'F:AP Model 4.1 Inlroduction WEAP is di~tinguished by its integrated approach to ~imulating water sy;tem~ and by its policy orientation WEAP plaee~ the demand site of the equation - w~ter u,e pattem~. equipment efficiencie~. re-use. prices and allocation - on an equal loming with the supply site-stream now, groundwater, reservoirs and water transferl. WEAP is a laboratory for examining alternatIve water development and management strategies (5E1. 2007) \NF.AP represents the sy~tem in terms of II; variou~ supply sources (e g rivers. creeks, ground\Vater. and reservoirs). wnhdrawal, transmlSSlOn and "a,\ewater Ireatment facilities, ecos)'stem requirement;. water demands and pollulion generation The data structure and levd of detail may be easily customized to meet the requirement, of a particular analysi,. and to reflect the limits imposed by rewicted data, An intuitive graphical interface provIdes a simple yet powerful means for constructing, vIewing and modifying the system and Its data. The main functions- loading elata. calculating and revIewing results-arc handled Ihrough an interactIve ;creen structure 4.2 Application Steps WEAP applications generally mclude several step; The ~tudy definition set; up Ihe time trame. spatial boundary, sy,lem components and con1lguration of the pmhleltl. The Cun'ent Accounts is the dataset from which the scenarios arc built, The Cement Accounts, which can be vicwed as a calibration step in the developmcnt of an application, provIde a snapshot of the actual water demand. pollution loads, resources and !mpplies for the sy~tem. The Current Accoums is a one year basis "I he Reference Scenario carrie.~ forward the Current Accuunts dala Into tht entire project period specified and serves as a pomt of comparison. It l~ a scenario that represents thc changes that are likely to occur in the future, in the absence or any new policy 30 measure Sometimes callcd a "busi~ess as usual" scenario, this helps in understandmg the best eltimatcs about the stlld'ed period The objectivc of a reference scenario lS to help people learn what likely could occur if current trend continue anl! LO"nderstand the real situation Other scenarios explore possible altcrnatlVe sets of assumptions (policies, cost and factor that affect demand, supply and hydlOlogy) of fi'tlll"e development changes to the system in r"ture years aftcr the Current ';'CCOlmtsyear Thele alternative sets of assumptions are based on policies, co,ts, lechnological de\'elopment and other factors that affeet demand, pollution, supply and hydnllngy (SFI, 2007). Finally. the scenarios are evallIated with regard to '",ater ,ufliciency. costs and benefits, compatibility with environmental targets, and ,en,'Li,ily tn uncertainly in key variables (SEI, 2007). 4.3 ScenarioAnal~'sis The scenario approach allows flcxible representation of the consequences or alternative development pattcrns and supply dynamics A scenario can bc dciincd a, il plausible de~criptiOll of how thc future may develop, based 0'1 a cc)hcrcnL Hnd intcrmilly cO'isistent sel of assurnpliom about key rclatiop,ftip,1 and drivIng fnlces Scenario a~alysis is central to WEAP Scenanos are u,ed in WFAP to e\plorc the model with an enOfmOU,range or'.what if' questions. such a,. • What If population growth and economic development patterns ~hange~ • What ifreservoir operating rules arc altcred~ • What irgroundwatef is more fully exploited? • What ,fwater cunservation is introduced~ • What if ecosystem req"iremcnts are tightened~ • What if new sources of""ater pollution are added') • What ir a conjunctive use program IS ntabh,hed to store excelS slilface I',ater III underground aquifer~~ • What if a water recycling program 's implemented" • What ,1'a more emcient irrigation technique is implemented" • What lfthe mix oragl'iculturaJ crops changes: • V,rhatjf chmate change alter, demand and supplies~ 31 4.4 Dfffillnd Management Capabilities WEAP is unique in its capabihty of repre,enting the effects of demand management on water ;ystems Waler requirements may be derived from a detailed ,et of Ilnal u:;es. or """ater services" in different economic sector:;. For example, the agricultural ,ector could be broken down by crop lype~, irrigation districts and irrigat1l1ll techniques An urban ;ector could be organized by county. city, and "ater d"triet ]ndustrial demand can be broken down by industrial sub-sector and further into process water and coolmg water, This approach places development objectives- providing end-use goods and services at the foundation of water analys,>, and allows an evaluation of effeels of improved teehnologles on these uses, as well as effects of ~h 4.5 En~ironmental .Effect \VEi\P scenario analy;e; can take into account the requirement> for ilquatlc ecosystems. They al:;o can provide a summary of the pollution pressure different water usc:; impose on the overall syslem Pollution is tracked from generanon through treatment and outflow mto surface and underground bodies of water. 4.6 Srtfing up \VEAP Analysis To sctup an area, the problem under study is charactenzed by definmg phY<'Leal clements comprising the waler demand-supply syslem and their spatial relalionships. the study tIme period, unils, hydrologic pattern. and, when needed, pollutants aTldcosl paramelers A central feature IS an ea;y-to-use "drag and drop" graphical mtcrface used to he out and vi,ualiLe the physical features of the 'Water supply and demand sy~lem. This spatial layout represents the Schematic Thc following sections summarizes from SF.I (2007) dilTerent aspects of WEAP mcludlJlg schematic development. demand analys,> and calculalion algorithm 4.6.1 Schematic Development of Study Arra A study area can be a set of demand sites defined by polnical OJ geographic boundaries it can also be defined as a specille water supply system such a, a river 32 basin or a groundwater aquifer In one case, the point of focus will be the demand sites, while in another; it will be the water supplies in a region ofinterest.ln yet other cases, it may be necessary to conceive of both a set of demand sites and the specific river system together as the study area. Study area boundaries could be somewhat more flexible than the rigid definition of the hydrologic boundaries in order to include the adjacent demand areas served by water supplies from within the hydrologic supply system, or possibilities of importing or exporting water from or to sites outside the study area, Construction ofWEAP schematic view is mown in Figure 4, 1. f Figure 4.1: ConstlUction ofWEAP schematic ",iew A 'node' represents a physical component such as a demand site, wastewater treatment plant, groundwater aquifer, reservoir or special location along a river. Nodes are linked by lines that represent the natural or man-made water conduits such as river channels, canals and pipelines_ These lines include river.>, diversions, transmission links and return flow links. A 'river reach' is defined as the section of a river or diversion between two river nodes, or following the last river node. 33 f)emmrd Sile,l: A demand site i:, best defi~cd as a set of water users that share a physical di,[libulion ,]"lem, Ilml 1, ull \\'11l1ind defined region. or that share an important withdrawal supply point The level of detall of water use data available generally determine, (he level (Jfaggregall Local Supplies: Three types of Local Sllpplies (i e , (ho,e not connected to a river) can be defined in WEAP' • Groundwater sources. with natural inflow. demand "lIe and wastew~ter tr~atm~nt plant returns. river interactions and storag~ ~ap"bllity betwe~n months. • Local reservoir sources. "ilh predetermined monthly innows. demand sit~ and wa,tewater lrealmen! plant retu1'1l$, storage eapability betw~en months, and hydropower gen~ratl()n ~apabl1ity. In contrast to river rcscrvoir nodes, thcy are managed mdependently of any river system • Oth~r 50urc~s, wIth predetermined \\iater quamities available on a momhly ba$is, but with no ,torage capability between momh., (e g. stream, or olher unconnected rivers. mter-basin transfers or other imp"m, and de,alinat;on plants). local supplies can be hnked 10 any number of demand sites The user must assign a preference to each link to order wilhdraw~h, D~mand slte and wa,tewater treatment plant return flows can be returned to groundwate, source, and lo~al reservoir wur~es, but since "other" sources do not have .,wrage eapahl1;ty. WEAr do~s not capture the "'ater returned to them. Rivers, IJllvr,liolis alld RiveI' Node.\': !Joth rivers and diversions in WEAr are made up (lfri,el nodes connected by river reaches Other overs may flow in (tributaries) or out (diversion~) ora ri\'er There are ~even !yr~s of river nodes' • Re~ervoil' node~. which repre,ent r~~er\'lm s,tes on a flver ,l, flyer reservoir node can rdease water dlreclly to demand sites or for use downstream. and can be used to simulate hydropower generation 34 • Run-of-river hydropower nodes. which define points on which run-oF-river hydropower stations arc located Rutl-of-rivcr stations generate hydropo\.\.er based on varying stream-flows but a fixed waler head In lhe river • lilow requirement nodes, which deline, the rninimLlln in-.I[ream flow required at a romt on a river or diver,ion to meet water quality_ fish & \vildlifc. navigation, recreation, downstream or other requirement, • Withdrawal nodes, which represent POints where any number uf demand sites receive waler directly from a river • Diversion nodes, which d,vert water trom u n,-er or other diver,ion into a canal or pipeline called • Tnbutary nodes define points where one fiver join, anothcr 'I he inflow from a tributary node 1S the outflow fi-om the lributaI) river Return flo;; node>, which repre,enl relul n flow, from dcmand site, and wastewater treatment plant>, l'ransmls,I;OJ) Llllkl: TrunslTIl>sion links delive, waler flOm local ,upplies, reservoir node" and withdrawal nodes to samfy tinal dema~d at demand sde~ WEAP use~ two user-defined sy~lern~ to determine [he water allocation along each transmi,sion Imk in cach month. as descnbed I~ Supply Pnorlty, Demand Preferenccs and Allocation Order. Refilm flo,,' I.illk.,: Waler lhat not con,umed al a demand ,ite can be directed to one or more wa,tewater treatment plant" river node, or local supply suurces, Return 110\,~are specified as a percentage of samlied demand. PrlOrlf;n' toJ' Wa/er Allom/IOII. Two LJ>,eT-deCLTledpriority,y.\lem.\ are used to determme monthly allocations rmm local ~upplie\ and river nodes to demand sites, and for in-stream 110v.requirement, • Supply pnuntles, Competing demand siles and f10\\ requirements arc allocated v,'ater according to their wpply prionlle, Priorities can range from 1 to 99, with 1 35 being thc hIghest IJrlonty ~nd 99 the llmesl. l\1any Can ~hare the same priority These priorities are useful in representing a system of water rights. and arc also important during a '''ater ,hort~ge, m Wh,~h~a\e lngher pnorll1e<, are gali,fied as fully as possible befure i<)wer pnoritle<, are considered If priorities are the ,arne, shortages will he equally shared • Demand preferences If a demand site I, connected to more than one >llpply source, the choices fol' ~upply with demand preferences can be ranked. The demand preferences ale attached to transmission links. Using the supply prionties and demand prel",rence" WEAP determine, [he allocation order to foiln". when allocating the water. The allocation order repre,em, the acwal cakulation order used by WLAP for allocatmg water All transmission hnks and in- ,treilm flow requirements with the same allocation order are ha~dled at the same time, For example, flows through [ran~mi~sion links with allocatIOn order] are computed, while temporarily holding the flows in other tran,ml,sion Imh (""ith higher allocation order numbers) at lero 11ow,Then, arter order I 110\,'shave been determined. flows III Imks with alloeat10n order 2 are eompuled, while temporarily setting to zero flows in links ordered 3 and higher. In general, If a sour~e is conneCled 10 many demand ~ite~ with the samc supply priority, WEAP attempt> to allo~ate these flows simultaneously, legaldles~ of the demand preference, on the I'nks For example. demand sile DS I is .connected both a river and a groundwater source, with prefere~ee for the groun(h,ater, whlle demand sIte DS2 is only connected to the !lVer. Roth demand site~ have the .Iame ~upply priority, The allocation orders would he 1 lor O~] 's link 10 the groundwater, and 2 for Ihe demand site~: links to the river. ln calculations, first OS] lS allocated v,'ater from grou~d""ater, then both DS I and DS2 are allocated water from the river ln thlS way, both demand siles have an equal chance to receive water from the riyer in the case of a waler shortage, 36 4.6.2 D,'rnllndAnalysi\ WEAP uses a hlerarchical btruclure 10 di~agg['egale water demand data. In the example ShO""" in Figure 4.2. Soulh City is broken down into single and mult, faml1y, and fi.niher by end use, while \Vest Cily has no disaggrcgallon, \II/EAP is flexlhle in allowmg to enler aggregated data initially, and tu refine the demand projecliotls later as morc detailed data be~ome~ a\'ailable 0' necessary For cX~l1lple, a sample sectoral partition could include agriculture, industry, urban dome;tl~ and mral dome,lic The sector categories can be ll,~d nexihly to cnrre.lpond to the partIcular problem under analysis, The indu,trial sedor could be di,ided (,ub-sector) into industnal classilicalion<;, c.g, steel and Iron, petroleulll, ~heJl1iSlry,texlile. pulp and paper, and food processing C"c' ,,'OO",',,'c,.o----, ,"' 5,ncJe ,howe" 10,1.', W"h,ng Othe, f-, M"IL,lom,', , ,Show"" To,le', W",r.n~ on,", W"st [;" l"du",,'I,orth F;J Indu"'r East M.,.,uidc''''"," [..,~"" E Ag"cu'lu," N""h 5""",10' ,'ood ''''go',on Ao"cui'",e W." 'c' ~"'OCOUn', C",,, F'oO Fig.ure 4.2: Demand anah SLS111WEAP A( I/I'/ty 1.ewf.- The annual demand repre,enb the amount of water required by eaeh demand. Losses. reuse, and efti~lency are accounted for separately Water consumption is calculated by multiplymg the overall level of activity by a water use rate. ActiVIty Levels are used in WLOAP'sDema~d analysis as a mea,ure of social and economic activity Activlty levell; shown in FigLLre4 J. J7 Aeth'ily Icvcl~ for {lneof the hierarchical h:\'c1~IIrc Iypically described in ~bsolute terms (in this elISC.lhe number ofpcople in South City is 3,75 million in the CUrTCTlt Accounts), while the Olher levels IIrcdeS(:fibed in proportionate (i.e., percentage share or percentage saturation) terms, In Ihe e~l\mple shown above, 42% of the population li\'cs in single-family households in 1998 lind of these. 90% have Shower>, For e~ample. the Inial number of single-family dweller> in Soulh City with showers in 1998.3.75 million people. 42%.90"/0"' 1.42million people. Multiply this value b}' the water usc rale per pcrRlll per sho"cr per year gives the 1{]lalannual demand fOf South City single_family showers Uiller (he Ual<'; The water usc rale is lhe lIl'clllge annual WilIer consumption per unit of activity. WEAP displays the denominator (pc:rwn, in the e~ample below) to emphasize that this is a rule per unit, not the total amount of water used by all showers. Water usc rate is shnwn in Figure 4.4, Fi~url' 4.4: Walcr usc ralC in WEAl' 38 ;\1onthly Variation: In ,00ne demand ~iles; such a~ mciu<;lrial ~lle~, water u~e may remain constant throughout the year, while other demand, may vary considerably from month to monlh. In (hal ca~e, the per~entage of annual water used in each month i" used, The percentage, will also be used to ~()!lvert the annual pollution generated into monthly amounts The variation should reneel (he weighted eITeelS of all users within the demand site In estimating monthly variation, for a demand ~ile; historical patterns can be reviewed Lo.l's alld Reme: Loss rate (%) account, for any di<;lribulion los~es wilhin each demand ,ite For example, in municipal ,],lems. distribution lo%es could represent physical leaks, unmctcrcd water usc in public parks and buildings> clande~tine connections, water used 1'01line Oushing. or water use for f,re Ilghling. The effect of distribution losses is to increase the supply rcquirement by the factor (l + loss rate) Reuse rate (%) accounts for water recycling or reuse This adjustment refers to processes by which water is used in mOle than one applicatiDn before discharge, For ~xample, 'rrigatlOn \,,.at~r may b~ routed for reu;c In more than one flcld In industry> water may be recycled for multiple uscs Thc ~ffect of reuse is tu reduc~ (h~ supply requirement by the factor (l - reu~e raLe) Demand Mana[!emell/: The effects of "ariou, demand-.lide management (OSM) ,tralegies for reducing demand, eilher a dl';aggregat~d or aggr~gated approach Th~ di~aggregate approach would make changes LOthe wuter llS~ rat~s on indivldllal branches For example to model a program to I'IlJ!llute eftlci~nt wa,hing machin~s, would either decrease (h~ "'aler u,~ rate fur \va:,hmg machmes (lfthere was only one blanch for washing machines), or increase the share 01'dficient washing machines (If there were two blanchel-one fi)r lradilional washing machines and on", lor more efficient ones) With the aggregated approach tur DSM, the rractlun of total demand fur a demand site is estimated and used that muld be reduced by [)SM program,. 39 4.6,3 Hydrolog}' An important aspect of modeling a water system is to understand how it operates under a variety 01 hydrologLC cond,jIO]lS j\Jmllr~1vanatlOn, in hydrology month to month and year to year can have major effects on the results of scenarios WEAP has three methods for prOJectmgthe ~llrface wat~r hydrology over the study penod. the Water Year l\lelhod, Read From File Method and Expressions. These methods may be used to project the inflow to every surface and groundwater inflow point In the system for every month in the study period rhls includes fiver and tributary hcadf1ows, surface "aler innows to river reacheq, gl'Oundwalcr. local rcsclvoir and other local supply influw, Wnh Read From File, the inflow ror each monlh is specified. \Vith lhe Water Year Method, the t\\clve months of inflow for the Current Accounts are specilled, and then [he future sequence of wet and dry years is specified With E"pre,sions, the inflows arc spceified via a mathematical expression 4.6.4 Supply and Resources The supply and resources section determines the amounts, availability and allocation of supplie~, simulates monthly river flows, includ IIlg surfaee/ground\\.ater interaellon5 and in-,lream flow requirements, and tracks reservoir and groundwater storage. Supply and Resources include the following suh.\ection,' Lmkm~ fJemrmr.J.\'and Supply: transnussion linh ~aHy water Ii-urn local and river S\lpplie, to demand ~ile~, ~\lbJeelln losse, and phy,leal eapaeily, contraelllal and other constraints loeal Supplies: non-ri'er ~O\lrce" LllcludlJlg groundw"-ler, reservoir, that are ,imulaled a, i.\olated lacililie" and "Olher" ,ourees (e g. ~urlaee sources that are nllllllodeled in \\IE"-!' application, "uell as imer-hasin tran,fers). • RiveT> and Diversions: wrfa"e inl10ws to river", properlie" and operation of reservOIrs and run-of-river hydropower facl1ities, and in-,tream flow requirements • Return FIc",.,,: wa"teWaier from demand sites can be muted to one or more wa~tewater treatment plants. rivers or local ,upply source,;: treated effluent from 40 \va,tcwatcr treatment plants can be rouled lo (JIIe or mor~ nv~rs Dr local supply sources 4.7 C'akulation Algorithms WEAP operates on a monthly lime step, lI'omlhe (irsl month "fthe Current Accounts year through the last month of the last seenarl" year Each month II independent of the prcvlOUS month, except for reservoir and aquifer storage Thus, all of lhe waler entering the system in a month (c g, hradnow. groundwater recharge, or runoTI'into reaches) 1; either lotored in all aqwfer or reservOlr, or leaves the system by the end of the month (e g, QulnOw limn end "I' river, demand "~Ie ~unSL.lmption,reservoir or river reach evaporation. tranlmi%ion and return now link ios,es), Because the (ime ;cale I, relatively long (monthly). all flov,'s are a"umed to occur instantaneously rhus, a demand ,ite ean withdraw water from the river, consume sume. retUTJlthe rest (0 a wastewater treatrnerll plant that treat, 1\ aDd returns It to the river This return now is availabk for use LIlthe ,arne ~lonth to dov.'m,tream demands 4.7.1 Annual DemllDd ~ndl\1unthly Supply I{rquircmcnt Calculations Al/lllla/lJemand: A demand site', (1JS) demand for water is calculated as sum of the demands for all the demand site's bottom-level branches (Hr): ArlllrlU!Dcmrmd DS= ';L(1tJlrr/AClivily1.eve/ Hr y )Ymerl/seilale BI" R, The total actlVlty level for a bottom-level branch is the product ofthc activity levels in all branches from the bottom branch back up 10 the demand site branch (where Br is the bottom-level branch, fir' is the parent of !Jr. !Jr"'is the grandparent ofBr. etc,). TowlAcllwtyLeveln, ~ A(./"'llyLe)'eIIJ, x AcliI'ily'.evel"" x Aclil'ily! el'e/II'" x . Momhly J)emand: The demand lor a month (m) equals that month', fraction of the adjusted annual demand .IvlullthiyD('malJdJ)s,"' = A1omhl) 'I"al'iatlOnJ-i'acliOlIf)S "..x AdiustedAnlillallJemand.0.1' 41 Momhiy SllPP~VReqlllreme/i/: The momhly dcma~d represents the amount of water needed each month by the demand site for its use, whlle the >upply requirement is the actual amount needed from the ,uppl} ~nurce,_ The supply requirement lakes the demand and adjubts it 10 accounl fOl inlernal reuse, demand side management strat~gies lor reducing demand. and internal losses. ,HomhlySupp/yR( 4.7.2 Inflows Hnd Oulflows of\Vater; lilt, ufLinear Program Thi~ step computes water inJlows to and outflows from every node and link in the sy"tem for a given month This include, calculating withdrawals from supply sources to meet demand. A linear program (LP) is used to maximize satisfaction of demand sile and user-specified in-stream flow requirements, subject to supply priorities, demand site preferences, mas;: balance and mher constraints 'j he L1' solves the set of simultaneou, equations explained below 1>.1assbalance equations are the foundation of\!i'EAP', monthly wat~r ac~oll~ling' IOlal inll"w, eqllallmal oull1nws pillS net of any change in storage (m r~servoirs and aljllders), Every ~ode and link in WEAr ha, a mass balance equa!lOll, an{1some have addlllllnal equalions which con,train their flows (e,g, intlow to a demand ~lte eannOl exceed ils supply requilemenL outflows from an aquifer cannot exceed its rnuxm\lJJll withdrawaL link losses are a fraelion of now, etc) f)emw,d Sile UOH's: The amnulll \upplied Ln a demand sile (/)S) is the sum of the inl10ws from it~ lransmislion links (The inflow 10 the demand site from a supply source (SI'(,) is delined as the outflow from the transmission lmk connecting them, i.e, net of any leakage along the trallsmi>sion link). Every demand site has a monthly ,upply reqlllremeTil for waler, as computed in Dcmand CalculatIOns The mflow to the demand Slle equals this requiremenl, unless 42 there arc water shortages due 10 hyJrologlcal, rhysic~l, contractual or other COI\llr1ilJlI, IJemaIlSilellljlOII.DS=:>SupplyRe.llliJ.~mml /)i Some fraction of the waleI' received hy a demand site will be unavailable for usc elsewhere in the system (i c, because the waler i\ consumed 10>1tll evaporation, embodled In products, or othef\visc unaccounted for it disappear <;from (he <;ystem) The remainder of the water receIved by a demand site is available downstream in the system, and i, called the relum no". (which 1S dircl.'ted to o~e or more specified dCIlination, (De,!) COII.mmptlOlI ns= DenulIJuSile1njloH' U' - L 1).1' Re Ilmlrink/flJlml' Do',,,.- '","' !ialJ.lmi,lI'io/l I ink FIOlI'\'_ In a transmi,slOn link from a supply source (SI'[,) to a demand site (I\~),lhe amount delivered to the demand :;tIC(i e, the olllflO\,' from the transnmsion hnk) equals the amount withdrawn from the source (i e, the inl1o>vto the tran~mission link) mmus any losses along the lmk TrallSl.mkOlllfIOl"s",IJ.' ~ '/iWI.\I.iliklnjlml'", c,I),I' - 'I j llll.l/,mklJ"'I',lkDS /)emll"d Sil~ Retllrn Lmk 17o'Fs: Demand SilCrelurn rtow linkl lran~nllt wa~tewater rrllm demand sltes (DS) to destinations (/)c'sil. which may be eilher waStewater treatment plants or receiving bodies "rwUler, The amount that flows into the link is a fracllon 0 I-demand "te mllow, J)SRelurn!-",k!njlmVf)S 0<" ~ DSRelllmFI(Jw! The amount lhat reaches the destinatLon (, e. the outflow from the link) equaL\ the outrtaw from the demand site (i,e" the mflllw to the hnk) minus any losses along the link Ilc"'R eIII rn L 1/1k01l1j1 01<'.%1),-.,. - 1) SRe 1111'111.,/1~lrifII )W,~.\-,D,,, - /) ST 4.7.3 River flead (fOil': Head flow is delined as the I1nw into the Ers! reach (Rch) of a river (1/11'",) Upslrenm/nj/owr;c;' ~ R'1'erHeadfl()lt'Ji. c,' /leach Flows: The inflow to a reach (Rch) from upstream (other than the first reach) is defined as the amOlInt flowing downstream from the node (Node) immediately above lhe reach. I/psll'eamll(f/OIvII,h ~ DOH'IJ.I'!l'eam01llf/ow '-,,,,_ The flov.. out of a reach into the downslream node equals the flow into lhe reach from upstream pIli> surface water runoff and groundwater mflows to the reach minus evaporation and outflow to groundwater. rhis downstream outflow from the reach will become the upstream inflow to the node immediately below the reach (or the outt1o'" fi-om the river as i\ whole if lhere ille no more nodes downstream of the reach), j)owII-'lreamO"If/ow",c" = [,~}.'lrewjJ!I!f/()H'''''h'l ,\)lIriaceWarer!r!f/Ol1'H,h 1 Grmmdwaler/ Oulflows to groundwaler are a fraclion of upstream inf1ow~ to the reach ReachFiow l(JC;rrjJmdwalel',n,h - Reachl-f()", lrJ(;I'OlllldlvaleIFrac!IOIIR," x II!) ,1'1ream Iliflo w-",h Evaporation is calculated as a traction of up,trealll I~flow to the reach. Mmmmm Flow !leqllll"emelll /,'ode !'Iow,l; A minimum In-stream flow requirement (NI), ,peclfies a minimum tlow required at a puint un the river, to meet water qualily, f"h & wildlife, navigation, recreation, down,(leam or other requirement, Depending on It, suppfy prlomy, a flow reqlllrement wllf be satlbfied elther befure ur ufter other 44 requirements in the ~yslem, The flow out of the ~ode equals the flow in from upstream, plus demand sile (iJS) and (r€atrnenl plant (lJ') returns flo""s that come in at that point, f)(J11 11.I'lream()u!f!oH'j" = 1/p.\'lreumh!f1mr ',' +I J)S RenlnrFlow.'x H' + I)" I 'l'f' RerurnFlow", in Niver WIlham",,,! Node.1 U"HY Water IS "dthdrav.'n from \\'llhdrawal node, (ff'i\.') and dclJvcrcd via transnmsion links to satisfy supply requirements at demand site, The amoLlnt to withdraw, from zero up to (he ti,l] supply requirement, is computed wlthm the context of all demand and In-stream flow reqUIrements, available supplies, wpply priorities, demand preferences and other constraints, The downstream outflow from the withdrawal node equals the inflow.I I)'om upllream plLl~demand site (1)::') and !Ieatmen! plan! (7/') letUItlI, minus the withdrawal to all connecled demand siles, I)owlI.\/rcam Oiliflow~, = uj',I/ream! ufl,,"' "",+L !)8 Re IlImN"", usrrx + .os '," ')S 4.7.4 Local Supply A groundwater node's (GW) storage in the Ilrst month (m) of !he simulation is specified Be);ml14on/hSlol'a);e(jH ", ~ 11II1/aIS/ora);e(;I:' for In = 1 Thereatler, it begins each month with the ,torage from the end of the prevIous month Thc stmagc a! the end orthe monlh equal,> [he ,>wrage a! the hegllllling plus Inf1u,,,s from natural recharge, demand sile (JJ,"'j and IreatmeTll plant (II') return 110""5,and subsurface 1101'"from river reaches (Rch). mtnU, WIthdrawals by demand :>ltesand subsurface flow to river reaches 45 F;nJi\,fomhSlol'ugl! GW= I'IeK",;\4(mlhSr()mlf" G""+A'[Jlllml Rc ch arge n[[" + L DS Re fllmFlow DS OJ]' + L:17' I{c 111m/ L:TmnsLinklnj/mvGIi" DS-(Jro"",l","lar/"H."/;) Reach,,", I'"' DC The amount withdrawn from the aqlllfer to satisfy demand re'lLllremeJlt~ is determined in the con!c;..1 of all other dcma~ds and supplies m the ,ystem, The maximum withdrawals from an aquifer can be set, \0 model the monlhly pumping capacity orlhe well Dr other characleriSllCS ol'lhe aqulier thal could limit "ilhcirawals L /i"wJ"Ullklll(fOlI'(;1I" ns S; MaXlnlUm(;rmmr}" aferWifhd"(IlF(I/,,, '" 4.8 Setting-up WEAP Model of the Dinajpur Sadar lipHr.ila In lne study, the \\'1:/\1' model was apFlicd Ie>th~ Dil1i1jpUJ Sadar Upuzilu, which 'ncorporated sectoral demand analy,e" ,cHing up ,uppJics and 1111pO,illgallocation prinn[ie, To allow simulatiol' of watcr ~Il()cmi()n, the eletnent~; thUi comprise lhe walCI demand-,upplv ,vstem w~re ch~ra~t~r;7t'ci thr the study a,-"a and lheir spallal j'e1~1ionshipswere also e,\abl i,hed 'I he ,ys,('tn was repreoenlt:d 11,leT1'1'01';IS various water source, (e.g, surface \yater and groundwater) and "dtn demands (domeSllc. migation, and ;ndlostTy), GIS shape tiles of upa71la and flver sy,lems were used to delineate the .\ludy mea in WEAr. 1n the schemalic parI of WEAP, dcmand sites and supply sources were specified Nodes are used m \VF AP to repre,ent physical componenL~ such as a demand site. groundwater aquirer. and .\pcciallocation along a river Nodes are linked by lines, which represent Ihe natural or man-made water conduit, such as rivers alld groundwater To capture the features of most '""ater sy>tem~, difTerent types or eomponents (or nodes) were incorporated in WEAP. Given below is the dctalled description of eaeh type of component The pnnClpa1 schematic features modelled by WFAP for the study mea are shown in Figure 4.5 46 Figure 4.5: Schematic feature ofDinajpl.lT Sadar UpaziJa Demand Sites: In the present application of WEAP, the demand sites were divided into eleven sites, which are the eleven unions of Dinajpur Sadar Upazila, Yiz, Dinajpur Municipal, Sundarban Union, Fazilpur Union, Chehelgazi Union, Shekpura Union, Shashara Union, Auliapur Union, Uthrail Union, Askarpur Union, Shankarpur Union and Kamalpur Union. The study area had three demand sectors: domestic, industry and agriculture. Each water demand sector was thus divided inta demand for individual unions. After defining the demand sites, the configuration of the entire demand and supply system, including the links between supplies and demands was established. Each demand site had a transmission link from its source. The monthly water demand percentage was included in the system. The environmental flow requirement or in-stream requirement was set as nodes on the two rivers, in which the percentage of flows to remain in-stream for meeting environmental requirement was defined. 47 Local Supplies (Groundll'ater): Local supply (grou~dwater) wa, linked to 33 numbers (lJ Ullions, each having three types of demalld8, VIZ, dome~lic_ industrial and agncultural) of demand sites lIi1'cr and Rrwr Nodes. Rive" In WEAr ale made up of river node,; connected by river reache" Two lypes of river nodes \vere L1sedon each river (Punarbhaba and Atrai) flow requirement nodes, which defines the minimum in-stream flow reqUIred at a point on a river or dlversiun lO meet \vatcr qualny, fi:,h & wildiire, navigation, recreation. dOWni;tream or Olher requirements: and withdrawal node" which represent points where any number or demand sites received water directly from a river h"I1.1'ml,I.I'ioll Lmk: Transmission links were used deliver water from local supplie5, and withdrawal node, to ,atisfy final demand at demand site, The \"iater allocation along each lransmission link in ea~h monLh, a, de,eribed in supply pnorit}', demand preferenee5 and allocation order Priontles/or Water A/loeari()I!' Two priority system, were u,ed LOdetermine monthly allocation, from lo~al ,upplies and river node, to demand site,. and for in-5tream flow requirement, Competing demand site, and flow requirement, were allocated water according to their ~upply priorities Priorities were rangmg n-om I to 3. wilh I being the hlghest priority (domestic demand) and 3 Ihe lowe,l (agriculture demand). These priorilies are u,eful in representing a syst~m dming a water ,horrage, m ,,,hich case higher pnurities are sati,fied a, fully as po,:'lble before lower priorities arc con;ldered. Mceting domestIc water ha~ heen aece%cd thc highest prlOrity in the National Water Policy of 13anglade:,h (l\1o\VR. 1999). \Vatcr allocatIOn prLonti~s during critical pcriods are given in Lhe following ordcr domestic and mL1l1iCipaluse" non- consumptive u~es (e g na,igalion. fisherics and wildlife). ,uSlenanee of thc nver regime, and othcrs consumpti\.e and non-consumptive uscs such a:, lrngation, industry, environment, salinity management, and recrealion. According to the Policy, the above order or prioriry could be changed on specific socio-economic criteria of an area by local bodies througb local consen,u,. In Dinajpur Sadar, th~ indUSlries area all 48 nee mill~ depending on agricultural output and lhe lotal industrial demand ISless than one percent of total demand, indu>trial demand is given the second priority alter the domestic demand, followed by agricultural demand. If a demand site is connected to more lhan one supply source (e,g surface waler and ground"aler), supply source:, are as>lgned priol ilics against the demand For example. 'Wateris available from both Pllnarbhaha and Aim! river (although very low compared to groundwater) and groundwater in some unions In such cases. groundv.'ater use was a,signed the fir,t priority for dome,tlc waler and also for mdustnal u;c (present practice is 100% use of groundv"ater, and it 1, anticipated that this practice will continue), whlle surface water ".Ie was asslgncd the fir:,t priurity and groundwatcrthe second priority for irrigation watcr. WEAP uses these prioritics in allocating the water among d,fferent sectol's 110m thc available supply >,ources Chapter Five Demand Estimation 5.1 Introduction The people of study area mostly use water for domestic (drinkmg, cooking, washing, bathing, livestock, etc.) and iITigation (which constitutes the highest demand hy a distance). Besides, there arc some demands for industrial water usc. In the study area, major water use is irrigation, Both surface waler and groundwater are used for irrigation. Water for drinking and cooking purposes is mainly supplied from ground\vater sources, The dry season in the study area, which occurs normally during November to April, IS chanlctetired by a drastic reduction in the river Dow and a fall in the groundwater level when the demand for ImgatJOn water is necessarily high. Consequently. both dome;tic water supply and irrig:Jtion are subjected to strcss due to the uncoordinmcd withdrawal of surlace and groundwater. Therefore, the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater is essential for optimum utilization of water resources. Adept meaSUTeSmust be directed to utilize the major sllrfaec water resources, Given that waler reSOllTCCSarcfinite, strategies must he developed to influence the water demand and to lDCrease the efficiency of water use rather than to provide more water for the communities. It is very essential to know the sector wise water demand for present and future condItions, and safe available water resources at the planning stage of the sludy area to cstablish sector \vise seclor scope for expansion. Water demand of irrigation, domestic and industrial sector>.need to bc computed for present and future conditions, The purpose of this chapter is to describe the data used m the development of water demand management and allocation system for Dinajpur Sadar Upazila, The water baselme data wcre obmined from different SO\lrces. The data and infomlation WeTe collected from bolh secondary and pnmary ;ources. Secondary data on nver discharge, irrigation, industnal and domestic uses collected l;-om p\lblished reports such as EES and relevant organizations (including their district offices) such as 50 B'VDB, BUET, WARPO, IWM, BADe and DAE. Both demand and supply were ca1clllated on the basis of secondary dam. Present water demand for irrigation, domestIC und industrial usc has been estimated based on standard methodology and data collected from the concerned orgamzalion~ as well as field survey. 5.2 Selection of Base Year The bU8e accounts year is usually the most recent year for which rea,onably reliable and complele data arc available and from "bieh future demand projections can be made. The y~ar 2007 is chosen as the base year for this study and the enlire Slll 5..1 Estimation of Current Demand 5..1.1 Domestic Demand This sector includes all domestic, commercial and public uses or water for the town and mral areas of the study area. The domestic dcmand mcludes of demands of II llnions constituting Dinajpur Sadar Upazila, whieh are Dinajpur Municipal, Sundarban Union, Fa,ilpur Umon, Chchclgazi Union, Shekpura Union, Sh3shara Union, Alliiapur Union, Uthrail Union, Askarpur Union, Sh3lumrpur Union and Kamalpur Union. Domestic water use per capita varies substantially between urban and rural areas, and depend, on standard oriiving, mode of water supply, availahility and quality of water, etc. In the NWMP, the dcmand estimation approach adopted was based on standard of living (WARPO, 20(1). However, Mondal and Wasimi (2(05) argued that it did not seem appropnate whcn a particular living slandanl group, such as middle income group, is found to consume the same qlIanllty of water irrespective of their living areas (metropolitan, town, or mr.l1) anu mode of water supply (pipe or pump). In the NWl\fP approach, weighted average per capita consumption in metropolitan, town and rural areaS was lound 10 be 139 Jitres per day (lid), 118,9 1/d and 1015 1/d, 51 respectively, which according to Monda1 and Wasimi (2005) very high partICularly for WIal areas. They reasoned thai in rural areas, pond water is usually used for domestic purposes other than drinking and cooking. Domestic use of groundwater in mral areas is about 251/d per persoll, Therefore, Mondal and Waslllll thought it would he appropriate to assume a per capita consumption or 110 lid and 25 I/d for urhan and rural areas, respectIvely These figures were used m the present study. For system loss and return Ilow there are no standard limit in Bangladesh. As aSMLmcdby Mondal and \VaslmL a system loss of 10% and 15% and a return flow of 25% and 30% in rural and urban areas, respectively were used in the study. Domestic demand will progressi~ely increase in fmure with the anlicipated grO\~1hin popliialion. In Bangladesh, the population census is carried out in ten years interval. The population dam used was the la,>t census enumerated in the year 2001 and pubhshetl by the BBS (2006), The decadal (1991-2001) population growlh rate is lS.69% and aIlllllal compound growth rate IS 1,73% (BBS, 2006a). rhe latler figure (1,73%) was useu m eslimating population growth and the corresponding dOlJlestlc demand in all 11 union; of lhe study area, Table 5.1 presents union-wise population and growth rate and waler lise rate considered in the study. Table 5.1: Population of different domestic demand in differenl unions Domestic demand Number of Population \Vater us~.r,ate l.o;:/~at" ,He DODulatioD rllwth rat~';%' litrelda~' % Dina' ur Muniei al 157914 1.73 Sundarban Union 27345 1.73 ""25 W" Fa:oil ur Unton 25928 1.73 25 W Chchd Z' Un,on 33552 1.73 25 10 Shekpura Umon 29124 1.73 25 W Sha,hara Union 24388 1.73 25 W Auha lIrUn,on 41410 1.73 25 W Utlrrail U1110n 22057 1.73 25 W A 5.3.2 Agricultural Demand The study comprises about 13.524 ha of cultivated area, The irrigation waler demand estimated by IWM (2005) wa, used in the present stuoy_ This demand was calculated considering round the year Irrigation only for paddy cullivation in Rubi, Khanf-I and Kharif-II seasons, in which Boro. Aus and Aman cultivations are practiced in the study area, respectively. The critical periods under full paddy cropping for Rubi, Kharif-l and Khilllf-IJ ~easons arc March, March and October respectively "hile the same under mixed cropping mode are February/March, April and October respectively (IWM, 2005). The toml irrigation waler requirement for the present condllion for the entire area depends mainly on the cropping pattern and types of crop, growing season of the crop and crop water requlIement and area under each crop. Crops that require significant amount of irrigation and/or have large crop coverage were considered by lWM (2005) ror the water requiremeut estJmation. The following steps wcre followed: • Monthly irrigation requlIemenl was calculated simply mulliplymg the daily reqUlremenl hy the number days m the months. • The inigation requirement for the entue gro",ing season of each crop was calculated by summing up the monthly requirements. • The volume of water requirement or each crop was obtamed by mnltiplying the seasonal inigalion Tequiremcnt by the crop coverage, • Finally total irrigation water requirement in volume was obtained by summing up Ihe water requirement of all the crops and depth of water requirement was calculated by dividing volume ofwatcr by the total cultivated area, The irrigation water requirement was estimated based on the percentage or erop coverage within the study area. Following this procedure, the irrigation water required e8l;mated ror Dinajpur Sadar Upalila for the year 2003 \vas 1010mm (or 136.59 Mm] IIIvolume unit), Union wise imgation water requirement wos eslimaled from the total requirement for Ihe upazila in proportion to Ihe cultivated area of the 11 (mlons. Based on yearly growth rate of imgatlon water usc, the water usc rate~ lor the 11 53 unions were estlmated for the base year 2007, which are shown in Table 5.2. In order to estimate the monthly irrigation in each union, the proportion estImated by IWM (2005) jor the Greater Din~ipur Distrid (15%, 17%.26%,19%,8%. 1%, 1%, 0%, 0%,4%,3% and 6% lor the months of lammry, J-iebmary, March, April, May, June, July, Aug""l, September. Odober, November and December) was used. Table 5.2: Union W1,e agricultural demand Al!;ricnltural demand Cult.i:~:t~~D .~I:,~igationt",:~~":') ',"'ateru.~~atc site area ha re uirement 1\1m' (i\1m'lba DirutjpurMunicipal 10'), ]1.28 0.01 03024 Sundarban Union 1613 )6.62 0.0103024 FazllpurUulon 1531 15.77 0.0103024 I Chehdgazi Union 1751 18.04 0,0103024 I :;h~kpuraUnton 128H 13.27 0,0103024 I :'>hasharaUnion 1233 1270 0.0103024 Auliapur Union 1412 1455 0.0103024 UthrmlUnion 1522 15 (,g 0.0103024 A.,karpurUmon 1349 13.90 0.0103024 ShnnkarpurUmon 1611 16.60 0.0103024 Kamalpur Umon 1518 15.64 0.0103024 ** water use T"k, re.estimated based on data trom DAE (2007) and T\VM(2005) 5.3.3 Indu~trilll Demand As per DBS (2006), a total of 1998 nos of industries exist in the study area. Dinajpur Sadar area is famous for production of fine and aromatic rice that have export markets. Rice mills of various capacities have grown throughout the study area, The water use data for industrial water demand estimation were obtained through questlonnaire survey conducted hy the author among a number of sanlpled mdustries, ROllghly 95 percent industries are rice mills of differetll sizes and categories. Rice mills are being established every year. Tn order to estimate industrial water use, purposive interviews were conducted with employees of 40 rie~ mills. Result shows that the local industries usually grow 3 10 4 different varieties of rice using the rice mills. Watcruse rate for urban mills on averag~ is 2200 litre/day and for rural mills IS 1800 litre/day. Urban mills required more water per day because of different processing. The sector union wise mdustrial demand " gi~cn in Table 5.3. 54 Table 5.3: Union wise mduslnal information Indn,trial demand "'umbl'f of Industrial gro"th Wafer US~;'iate site indu,try ratel'Yo; (litreJdaJ ]);najpur MlIm~l al m 0_5~ 2200 Sundarban VD,on 215 0.58 lXO() T'az,l ur Union )1 0.58 1800 Chehd~niUnion 474 ()_5~ l~()() She ura linion 209 0.58 1800 Shashara Umon 40 (I.S 8 1800 Auha nrUnion 263 0.58 1800 Uthrail Umun 25 (I.S 8 ISOO A"" uTUnion 49 0.58 l~OO Shankarpur Union '," 0.58 1800 Kamal ur IJmon 27 0.58 IHOO Source: BBS (2006) & Field Survey, 2008 5.3.4 Environmental Demand The minimum do"nstrcam requirement. which is specified at the end of the river is the only ill-stream requirement for the river flow. There have not been much systematic studies conducted for defining environmental now requirement. The io- stream requirement sd forth in different plans (e,g. l\1NMP) until now has been on ad-hoc and empirical basi~. The NWMP estimale, consumptive demands In Bangladesh to be about 44% of the total water demand and in-stream demands lhe balance of 56% (WARPO, 200Ib). BUET-DUT (2006) has been one systematic study eouducted for defining environmental flow requiremenl fOT a few (three) river systems. A number of approaches (hydrologic, habitat rating and ecotope mdhods) were used to estimate and compare environmental flows. However, the report emphasizes that the results were preliminary in nahlre, and lt wa' nol the objective of the report to recommend now regimes for the selected rivers; rather the results presented only illustrated the possible applications and lise of habitat-flow functions to recommend seasonal flows. A conservative figLlre of 56% of flows, as generally suggested in lhe NWMP, as cnvironmental f1(}W~ in each month was used in the present study. 5.4 Suppl)' Sllpply sources arc divided into lwo T1Iainealegories grolltldwuter and the river. There arc l\VO major rivers (Atrai & Punarbava) in the Sllldy an~a. 55 5.4.1 Rinf Examination of flow records revealed that hmited resources are available in the Alrai River and the Punarbhaha in (he dry period. Field le~el interviews with farnlers also re~ealed that dry season flow availability for agricuHLlral water usc is very limited. According to infomlation collected fTOmllpazila agricultural exlen~ion office, there was 139 low lin pumps (LLP) whICh were used (5, 21. 16, 19, 15, 11, 17 8, 9, 18 and o numbers of LLP for Oinajpur Municipal, Sundarban, Fazilpur, Chehclgazi, Shckpllra, Shashara, AuliapllT, lJthrail, AskarpLlf, Shankarpur and Kamalpur Unions) rOTirrigation in the study mea. I\VM (2005) estimated that the flow resources a" presented in Table 5.4 are available in the two rivers relevant for the study area. Table 5.4: Monthly Riv~r flows available in rivers (mlls) Rh'er Oct N" Do< .Jan Feb Mar Ap' :\Iay Alrni (Bhllsir 8J ,8~ 5071 32.43 28.50 2J 112 17,86 13.73 1722 Bnnd3r) Punarhhabn 6.61 4.52 2n 0.01 0.03 ~ ~ ~ (!'lIlerha!) Source: IWM (2005) The station 'Phulerhal' On Punarbhaba is within (he study area and the flow a( (hat station is aval1able as supply for both sides of the river (i.e. Dianjpur Sadar on the left and Biml Upazila on the right). It is nssumcd that 50% of flo,," at Pulerhat is available for Dinajpur Sadar and the rest for Hirai Upazila. The station 'Bhusirbandar' at Alrai lies upstream of the study area, A distributary of the Atmi (also called atria) flo,,"s through the study area for which no flow measuring stations are avallabl~. Based on information on river cross-sections, slope and water depths collected from BWDB, the 110w distribution ratio of the dlstributary to the main Almi River was approximated assumed to be equally available lor usc on both sides of the rivers (i.e, Dinajpur Sadar and Chimbandar Upazila), According 50% of the flow was considered available for Dmajp\lr Sadar. The estimated water flow th\lS available for the stlldy area from PUllarbhaba nnil Atrai rivers are given in Tnb1e 5.5. 56 Table 5.5: Monthly River flows avallable in the study area (mJ/s) River 0" i'iov Dec J,. F.' Mar Ap' l\h}' Alta! jg.02 11.16 7.13 (>.27 5,06 3,93 3.02 3.79 Punarhh.ba 1.45 0,99 0.47 0.002 0.006 " " " 5.4.2 Grollnd"atcr Groundwater is the most important source of water supply in the study area. Groundwater can be ahstracted by insmllation of wells lor the development of water supply systems. Main irrigation period is from December to April. According to informatIOn collected from the upazila agncullural extension office, Irrigation is occasionally required during September to October depending on the occurrence ofrainfalI.lIowever, the reqLlirement during this period lS not so significant compared to the requirement during the dry period (December to April). Because of very less rainfall during the dry penoo. groundwater becomes the major source of imgatlon in the study area, Surface water has very limited scope lilr large-scale irrigation. Gnlllndwater in the shldy area is availahle at a shallow Jeplh. Groundwater levels are at or ncar ground level during the period August-October and lowest in April-May, Groundwater rises as a result of recharge during May and usually reaches its highest in late July in each year. Bet\.veen July and Oc!oher groundwater levels are constant and maintam a balance between surface water levcls and the fully recharged aquifers. GrounJwaler levels fall from October in response to rJ.pid drainage of surface water and changes in base levc1s, The rate offal! is highest in October-November but equally large changes may take place after Janllary when withdrawal of groundwater for irrigation starts. IWM (2005) estimated groundwater availability for 16 upazils of Greater DinaJPur District for 2 different depths oj"ground water table. The estimation of groundwater available includmg lrrigation rerum flow considering depths up to 6 III and 7 m and yearly potential re;ollrce are given ill fable 5.6. 57 Table 5.6: Available groundwater resources ofDinajpur Sadar UpaziJa A~ailablegroundwater resllurces VI' to 6m depth Up to 7m depth tip to potential (mm) Mm (rom) Mm' (mm) Mm '" 40 m 52 gOO 1J~ Sources: 1'NM (2005) ~-'-:c.b:~pter;six- Scenario Construction 6.1 Introduction A scenario can be defined as a plausible desenption of how the future may de~eI0I', based on a coherent and intemally consistent set of assumptions ahout key relationships and driving forces. Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts. Scenarios represent "what if' situation of which can affect the "system and options fur management. Scenarios can be economic, demographic. political, tecImoJogieal development, climate ehangc etc. In thc study, a sct of scenarios was developed to account for possible ebanges in tbe evolution of the water denmnds. Scenarios were largely eonstmeted in terms of demographic change, which affects demand, strategies taken to improve tcehnologies. and demand management. Climate change a, a future scenario has heen a well talked about point of discussion, There have been numerous studies in the global context as the changes and/or trends in temperature and ram fall. Climate change is anticipated to alter both demand and supphes. It ISgenerally predicted thai (TPCC, 2007) temperature will rise in the future and as an associated impact rainfall will decrease in some of the dry season months. This may increase the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0) means a higher demand of Irrigation water. However, connicting results have been obtained from regional/local level studies. While Mondal and Wasimi (2004) and Mondal et a1. (2007) studied trends in temperature and rainfall and possible impacts an ETo. The later studies by IWFM (2008) and Mondal et a1, (2009) showed that when the combined effect of changing parameters (e.g. temperature, sunshine hour etc.) is considered, the effect on ET" is inconclusive. Also, no conclusive studies have been there that showed the impact on water availability (supplies), Because of the uncertainly associated with this local levcl prediction, climate change was not considered a8 a scenario 59 6.2 ScenarioConstruction Scenario 1: J'0plllmi(lfl gfY/!"lh The Dinajpuf SadaT Upazila is one of the fastest growing upazila in the Dinajpur District. Datil municipal and rural dome,tic water demand will be influenced by changes in population, This will also affect the agricultural water demand, as more irrigation water will be required to produce food for the increased population, II will also be assodated with increased economic activIty: there is also an expected change ;11industrial water demand. So, scenario-l represents the changes In future waler demands for domestic, industrial and agricultural useg because of population gro\\1I1. This may also be considered as II "Reference Scenario". In order to build the waler demand scenarios through out the period of analysis, population data from the district community series, 2006 (BBS) "''efe used. The mean annual population growth rates (1 73%) were computed using population data from the Bangladesh Bureau cfStatistics (fable 5 I). The e;;:pected population growth frOlll the year 2007 to 2045 is shown in Figure 6,] C,••'_"oC_;;;••""C•••",,".~l 0""'" ; -,- ,- --f- !•• Dome,U, Kam,Ipu, """'" -~ '" .Oom ••""5i>o""''l''-" ~ _ Do",,,,,, "-"iWJ' .- -•• D,m.",Utt..I, .- ,. Dmno", S,"'"bs" ..-,,- •• _ Do"""",Ch.h,,,, •• , ••• Oom •• '""""',,", r"''''''' •• _ Oom"'oSeI."." £ """" "'. Dome,~,Sh"h." ".-,,="""" " _ Dam<>,~, MuoiO,,1 .- .- "'" 2001 '011 "''' ",. "" "", 1'JlJ "''' "'" 21111 "" 2IJ>3 1Jl> ,,,<1 "'" Figure 6.1l Expected population growth in II unions ofDinajpur SlIdar Upazila Dome,I'tlC water demand: Domestic water demand encompasses all union's water requirements within the study area, For the domestic demand sc-enano, the increase in the direct water demand was attributed to the population growth and economic 60 growth. As already discussed in section 4.2, the domestic water demand is given the highest priont)' fmh~\'lria! waler demand: A, per Bangladesh Bureau of StatistiCS 2006, lolal 1998 numbers of small industries exists in the study area. Most of the industries are IIIsmall category. Among these, most of them are the nee mills industry. The mean annual industria! gro\\1h rates (O.58%) were computed using muusm,ll data l'rom the BBS (2()()6). Tnc scenario shows that nllmhers of industry are increasing wllh the year and lo!al "ater demand arc also increasing. Waler allocation requirement for the induslnal sector is minimal in Bangladesh because o(-low level of industria! development. The mdustrial water demand scenario shows thaI the highest demand of the shldy area lS in Munieip31 area, second highest are union of Chehc1gazi and lowest demand is Ulhrail umon. Agricultural water demand' Agriculhlre in the study area is one of the most important economic activitIes ami there is a high irrigation water demand. Tn oruer to support the food requirement of the increase population as discussed m seelion 53.1, crop production will need to be increased. TWM (2005) estimated future water requiTement for irrigation based on asses,ed future cropping patterns and crop coverage, which were approximated from the present trend as well as participatory workshops with stakeholders. Crop water requirement of each crop estimated for the present condition was used to estimate the enhance water requircment for the future comlitlon with the assumption that the fuluTe climatic condition will rcmain unchanged, In thIS scenario, water use growth rate is 0.60 percent for the study area. Withm lhe study area, the total highest water demand in present and future is m Chehelgazi union, sccond highest water demands IS in Sundarban and Shank3rpur, the lowest demand IS 1Il Dinajpur Municipal because of minor cultivation area. 8r:el1urio2. increased irngarwn efficwncy There is a difference between the quantity of waler ahstractcd/divertcd from a source for migallon and that used in actual crop evapotranspiratIOn, ThiS difference is a loss from the vic;vpoint of an individual farmer, irrigation water supplier, or irrigatIOn 61 scheme. lnigation efficiency which is a ratio of usage to supply is considerably low, usually 40%-60% in Bangladesh (Saleh and Mondal, 2001; Mondal and Saleh, 2003). ]0 sccnario-2, it is assumed thai water demand management lllOls (e.g. pricing, ~lLhsidics)would be used IIIfuture lhal will help create better fann water management by the farmers such that they \vilJ reduce wastage or water by introducmg betteT ilTlgalion wakr management structure and efficienlmigatiol1 methods. Two cases of increased ilTlgatloll efficiencies were considered: a 10% mcrease in irrigation clTicicncy and a 20% Increase m irrigation cITicicncy. These two ca.\es were considered as reasonable after expert consultation with knowledgeable local pmicssionals, Scenario 3: Groundwater" more full., exploiled As discussed in Table 3.2, at present irrigation covenlge l~ mainly done by ST\Vs. Some DTWs and very few LLPs exist. There is opportunity for increasing the number of DTWs to extract groundwater from the lower aquifers. Hence, ,>cenano-3 eonsidcrs that groundwater is explOl(ed more lillly through the use ofDTWs as req~med. Scenario 4. Groundwa/er is fully explOIted /ogelher wilh inereased in.igation efficiency manar;cmen/ srrategles The scenario is the combination of scenario-2 and seenario-3, Scenario 5__Rubber Dam eonsrrue/ion Currently there are 134 LLPs (hat use surface water from the rivers. This number is very insignificant, since (he now available in the rivers under nonnal conditions is very low. There are opportunities for augmenting surface water flows by constructing rubber dam as analyzed by lWM (2005). Construction of a rubber dam is considered as Scenario-5. A ruhber dam at Gouripur III Punarbhaba River, as ohserved in IWM (2005), is expected to irrigate 9122 ha. which he on both sides of the Punarbhaba River Based on cultivable areas in adjacent unions, 4258 ha of cultivable areas in Dinajpur Municipal, Auliapur. Chehclgazi and Sundarban unions of Dinajpur Sadar lJpazila will be served by the dam. Chapter Seven WEAP Simulation Results 7.1 Introduction ln this chapt~r, the outputs of the WEAl' arc anaJyz~d thr the ~ludy area (Dinajpur Sadar Upazila) For each ~ector, lhe main output analY7ed \\(a~ the degree of satisfactIOn of the water demands in different ;ector5. Th~ reSLllt~or lhe different sectors were compared to a%e\, the impact of the lllcreasmg waler demands Hencc, the data are essential to evaluate the current and past 5ituatlOn, while models are indispensable in exploring options for the filture 7.2 Water Dcm~nd Anlll~~i, in the "Reference Seen~rio" Three \nap~hots of monthly demand; in Relerence ,cenario arc presented In Table 7 1 Refer~nce scenario i, the one in which sectoml demand~ were e,lablished on the basis of population growth and increase in water me rate for dome;tic, induqlrial and agricultural sectors Figures 7, I, 7,2 and 7,3 .\how the gro'Wth of demand tor domestic, llldustriaI and agricultural uses, and FI),,'ure7.4 pr~~ents total annual demand growth DomestIc demand is rar grealer in Dinajpur Sadar MuniCIpal (",here popLllalion ;,\ the highest) than the uther unions 01' Dinajpur Sadar Upazila, Growlh ,n mdlEstrial demand ;huw~ that the highest dcmand of the study area is in Dinajpul Municipal area, !bllowed closely by demand in the unio)] oCChehelgazi, and the lowest demand is in Uthrall umon. W,thm Lhe,Iudy area, the total highest agrlculturul wuter demand i~ in Chehclgazi Ulllon, second lllgh~st waler demand is in Sundarban and Shunkarpur, lhe lowest demand is in DinaJpur :-'1uJllc'pal becaLlse of minor cultivation area, It is clearly found that water demand fluctuation is the highest in agriculture sector ., 63 ,,- ,,~••• J _ ---f:=-~:-:-t.".,,-! -"'-'_~~_--:._~'- ,." -,-:;=--:::: -;- I,Ci.""_"~"''''''".',u _ eoo-,,'", ••••. 11,"" :I ."""""Ch ., , -, .'''''''''''-'''-'' .,• ,.,--, c.'''''''''''.••.•,,''''' o .'"""",C,"""""" •• 0'''''''''''_ ., "] --""''''''''',,"' Dim'"">,"'""'",, ., Ll~I""".",_ •• U _ '''''''., s.',,""""" .,• o lEliiI'''''''"Y __ ., ;1JaII,_" _I"'~"''''_'''" w..,1 ,-, ~: J= ,-,. ' ••. ,". ,• ," , ., ., Figure 7.2: Expected industrial water demand growth 64 ,- ',"0".""_""""',",,u 1&1"",_,._, 0,_ J lEI "'""'_0,"" .•••• J 0 ""_••F.,,,,", .- o I:J ""o..,,~""""",." "- 00'9'_""""""" o rr::l """' •.•~,....,'" ". o IE3 ",""""'" "'"""""'" ". o E3 """""',."""'""" ". ".""""'-"'-1\)""'_ co, •• , l". ~""" E ",lID !1O,Irn "- ,. ,. ,. ,. ,. ,. '., ., "' "' •• - Figure 7.3: Expected agricultural water demand growth :120,000 --t-' ... ," XlO,OOO --., -.,.-t--, t~,Cl;Q , ;:g 140.000 , -g 120000 , "~ 100,000 j 00,000 "',oo:J- I<'igure 7.4: Annual water demand growth 65 The total annual demand is incrca:;lng at th~ rale of 0 66%, which is the result of ),73%,0,58% and 0.60% of growth rates I,)r domestic, industrial and agricllhural 'Water uses Within the study area approximately 94% of the IOlal demand is agricullural demand and only a ~mall perccmagc is for dome,tic arid industria! demand So agriculture i~the dominating sector among the demand sites. For Dinajpur Sadar Upa7ila total waler demand induding system loss is projected to )ncreases from 1753 million ml in 2007 to 1975 mlillon m 1 in 2025 and 226,0 million mJ in 2045, The total v"ater demand including system loss for the agriculture, dome<;ticand mdustr)' sectors ale 1649 million ml, R,93 million m", and 1 46 million ml respectively in 2007 (base year), which will be increase to IR1,7 million m1, 12 15 million m1 and 1.62 million m' in 2025 and 207,0 million m'. 1713 million ml and 1 82 million ml in 2045 (sec 'lable 7, 1 aNI Figureq 7.5-7 7) Monthly maximum water demand for dome"tic use is in March & April, l'or industry it is in May & June, and l'or agriculture in January to April The monthly minimLlrn water demand for domesti~ use is in l\ovcmber. for industry it is in Augu>t to September, and for agriculture too August to September (demand i~zero) Thc peak dome~tic and industnal water demand occurs in Municlpal Area, while thc peak in for agricultural demand is Chchclgazl umon because total number of population and industry i, higher than other unions and also total number of cultIVation area is higher than othcr Unions, Kamalpur, Sundarban and 1I.1unicipal have lower water demands for the domestlc, industry and agriculture due to low population, indu,try and cultlvatlon area among thc unions ("'l~) , "L ; , ,;, I 8 " ,-It ," "" " '"' "' " '" I,'", P'"W" L'6,tl P'III S91' ';'01 'J" I oem eLL IS"I ,,0' ~ 9 Ll I '" "" '"' ""I ['[ I I I I'"-"-l'll " " " "" " '" ,H nl" I'll q " 1 HL" ,- G ,,," nl" '"" I " '" "" (, " '''''1'''1''''\ , H' I n :r I I ""'["'<[S • " " "",, "" " " " " ,• " n '" "" ""I '" '''"'''l'-'''[S '" " eo," 'lL U, , rj[ [C]" >(;' ", 'eL '" "" '" eo' I "nul', "; D 6Q, eo, Uf "., " (1- L'G,- 1'0' ", l,d'''''''I' ~"''"' ,,', ", I "1 '" " I "dl""''1 I '" """", , " q " " " " " " " I '0< " "" " I ",d['''J J, o'"3_[ ,;[, , , w C,",>c " " "" I ,,., "'" I '" .. '" .. '.'Is'a !,oaI"'''1-' I 'fI,1 HI hI I \';' '" '" '" Hr t'l! " ; 1 '" ,TI hi md"I"V <, , I c, , md",~,¥ I "" " " """ " " " " " I i: !'c61l 6""9 9<" I niL nLL I ,,'IL HIL 'OIL U6S "'"" ","(,I n[' (, '-19 "o,S itOi: ,,' f'" I c 'JI , 'JL I >9L 1-9i ,,' CO, q~ \;:, I '"I H' 1''''ln I ,", Hi HI [ 0;; CO, I ':0' "I' ,,;c ," (;, 1 U, I 0, u'q"p"ns .'yrt 8 ,1 6N '" , I H' ,"' '" I '" '" '" "" '" '" '" '-""I""" i. "J[ I', I 1 'J[ n1 !,!, ,,, '''"-''l''''IS '" '" '" '" '" "" ,r,c '" t rGa I ,01 'J " "'1 I 9 I, 'lee !.r" ""'"'" C '" '" "" ;(M '" ,"" L<> • 6 6,t9 , I,t r, ,S. (' 9 L; ('"[< (,'m .,,,; I """ I (,;t9 "0, " "I< 1''"''''"'''' (,tL ;'IJ~ , 0, i ,'oi i on ::II GtE retL I "-L I "L '" 'H' "'UI"''''''< • CO,t eo, '"r(,l , "I >I,L I ,61 [',t ;n ;n "J[ '001''"'[ '" L I , '" '", 81 or, i'l, 0, nil "'" or 6N' ," ,,,~pq'".] " '" '''" "" "" , Sf , O[ (,'J, HSf 69, He ""l I "", ",Jl , 0, SO[ re" ,;"t '''"''In" H61 on '" H' '" '" I "" <';I '" i.'1;: i. n: S>1 HL ,"<1<>",,, d., ~'j' ,dV , "'''S '" '"" "0 '''V ""f '''I~ "'I< .. -, '''''-~ ,I""'" iOOt StOl PUESlOt: 'LOOl 'J01;)J~ lU~J~,U~pUl p"p.wap J:ll'P..'""PHUOW : I' L alQll~ 99 67 20,5 ,,,'"' ""n",' ,T"" ". ,1." ,'po 'la.' ,T"" J"I I ,lug ,,~I On ~" n" Sum \,k"I"" '" " , ,~" ,~ 6 M l1,; )1,; 215 " , '" "d '" l68 7 .Iul"r'" 41 , l76 07t III m J6 6 ll' -, I '" ", 41 " '" ," "''' 4(, , JJO 254 <241 ('h""'e"i m ."') ,," m ,." m I '" 1 ''" -''" " r"dr"[ 1l,9 y, , I "" '" Jli l6l ,r, , '" 2(, , 2(, 2 19 7 m )27.7 • m 20 J 15 I ,n " f:"""lr'" I 229 m "" I "" '"' 2" J I:,' "" ".'-" ,i \lnnid",,1 ,"2 , %6 L %6 L qR) .. ,,' (, 7"2 (, '020 70," '026 .'l7,0 (,14" • 'd" I I I ","," S,kp"'" ,J(J j 2, , ,) , ~9, n, J~S1 • ,q I 29.5 4'Jj 1(, " I 2" 5 I "" 'Iu,,,k,,~u, '" 22 (J 16 j 1')2 ,,,.c, 'f, '9 , I 220 30 2 J'U n,5 I 22" m no n, o~••h"" ,eo ''-7 3.\9 )." J~~ ,n .. 247 18 , ,1,6 , " '"7 I ," "" 1 ,un;,,"," ," 27,' '"" 18 i.' 346 27.7 17.7 m I 2' .. 27' 10.7 n, )457 1l,1n,,,1 19.1 2lJ JfJ .. .. no .2 J ,l,l 22) ]OJ 278 8 ,'" .. ," "J I '" 'um 1215(, 972 J 972 ; on, "72,; ')0 9 III S62 8.") 9 971., In', '-''' , "" I ,'" 4 ,""""r"{ " )1 I '" "" " '" "" '"." Auli,p'" '" '" 17,1 ,~, '57 129" Ij 0 n, '" '00 ," I 2-'0 ," '", "" J Chd"'~M' )0 9 lJ1 "'.'J 4(, , 4() 41 5 I 2.\2 2.1: "0 -'09 nO Ji6 2 c ''" 70 J,fJ , '''''pu, 20 J" "Iu " '" • "",",Ip,,! " " ,," " "70 n,o " "" " "" " " ~ ),1""''''p,1 161 ] I i no )Cd '"' 54 5 '99'1"I 272 .7l JI.' -',,-' '"'" 4138 ~ "'pun> l()2 116 2>1, If] 2 la' ,n Ij) 1dJ,J I'" "9 )''.' 1" '" ] Slmnblp'" (,,' """ "(, " "" "" U 79,' Sl~,b."" ",, .19 70 H ,n , " " or, H ," " I S,,"""O," 14>1 IlJ" I"; 2l 0' 1 L fJ 19 J lfI, ,," 1,.&" 175.2 I I" " n' '" I Uhr,;1 1'(, I I U H, " " '", Sum """ " 1910" 0,2" 972 11)4" 1,9 6 1458 l(, 19 " 1'"" I 1'-' 4 97 1 1.96 "" I I '", fl,l ,, 1;,6 A""r'" " '" .,n n I " 0" I "0 Aul",,", " 00 ,n (,"", "'eo L6.' I " ,,' n "" I "., Ch,h,lg'" " -, ; " n, f, '! ,n I ", " I "" u "", r ,,,Iv<,, '"17 "",.e, " o fj 00 H 177 ", " ",' 0.' K,m,lp'" '" " "'fU n, 0.7 "' ,", J J f'" co, I H 17" ~ Mu"i"p" '" '" " e, (Jf, "' < '0 " '" I " I ' " "' 0" I ', "' "' '" , S,lp"" I I n, 0" I (J(, 14.9 , Sh,,,b,,,,,, " " '" " " "' "' "' "" , n " '" J' U "' " I (J Q ou I U,7 f>r, I , .w...'pur 1,(, 17.5 I .1ft '" " " ", " ,," "l> '" "' " """'1"" "' "' '"' " ", '" I '" I '" " ," {,h,h"1P; '" " ., " fj P '" '" '" " I '" r FoWl",,, " " "" " '" '" :"J " ' 1 " " ," I " ", '" I 0 " " ," " ](,,,,,,,11'''' .If] ; 1 H ',0 ill> ," m ~ I '" '" I " " " " 0 I '1>'""",,1 '" I ," '" "" ", ," I " '" "" " (HJ " "'p"rn " I '" " '" fJ,' fJ(, I " '" ! " ; , l.7" "' U" :'-1,0 { ""n,,"I'"' " " I " '" '" "" '" " '" ,, < ",~,"'" " "" '" " "' 'U "" " fJ "" '" "" S,","',~"" H, I M " fJ ," rl(, no,,;) " " '" " "' "' (,fJ rJ(, " "" ),3 " " "' '" ," ,,' " " "' (,,1 " Sum H, J5,l 5H I J'n l(, (, '" '" ", ," 207 " T""I DE-m"n,L " "" ,H .16J 03& U H, 13," (}llll'l "" '" " " " '" " """ 69 ,.~_..~-~~.~-~,,,,,,- o _ "0"""'- "'..., •• o _ "' ••••"'e"'''''•••• u 0"'_""""'''"' " """""",,,,,"",,"' IJ 0 """"",,,,,,,,,,,,' 1O,D>J - IJ li'E """".""-"" ,~ -j - " _ "","""",5""",,,,", ,. ------~------, 1!!!!I'l",,,,,,,'o"""""" ,~ o _ "'"""lie"''''''''"' •• 11~ "'""''''U~~,' t "", ..~ -! - ~,.,,'" j::. •• •• ,,-. ,.•• ,. • • Figure 7.5: Domestic demand gwvyth 11 • '"""..,,.,,,,, ••,, • --"., u .'"""..,_ •• --+- o .'o"" •.•."""h.",.. • o li>:J'"""""'""'F'" '" , _'",,~"'Kam.,,"' m [0 '"""",,,,-,,'",", • r: !El'''''''''' "'""'~ IRI.''''''''''''''''''- '"""..,"""' ••~ - - ",cL'•.•.""''''''''' •- liJ!lll'ocL,"'''''~'' ,-'" ,.•,- ;-I- ,W o ,." '"• • • •, Figure 7.6: Industry demand b'TOv.th 70 .0 • ...-..._ ~.-~00-- __ ::=--1=--- 00 __ 08__ ::::: ===---!~====-----_..+--=:.--- Q_--"---0 _ 'un> •__ ,i_ I:::= , ----- ~,,-"..., ---_ .. 1...•• ------••... ~-- •..•,..•"---~.- .=-~-- •....=- .•.•. ------• = - HgnTt 7.7: Agriculture demand growth Vnmel Dtmand TIle WHitt demand domestic. and industrial uses were fully covered in because for domestic use was the first priority and industrial use 1'11\$thesecond priority. There is no unmet demand in the base ytflr: there is no unmC1 demand in the whole analysis period either. As it can be ~ ;n Table 7.2 lIlId Figure 7.11, agriC\lhure i5 the only sedor I'oiteu wiler demand is not covered completely beeause of low Wllter availability from the i'lOIJTCeS.Figure.~ 7.8-7.10 show Ih~ slIlIpsholS of compllrison bdwecn demand and unme1 demand in 11 unions of tile Sludy area. There "'as no agricultural demand in the months of August and September. Demands are met in the months of December in all unions in all years starting from the base year throughout the period of &nalysis It is seen 0lIl of 11 unions, demands are &150 met in the months of January md Februory. lltis is because the &gricultul"llldemand in those months are complI.fII.ti~.elylow, even in futuTe ytaf5, which could be concerned by available surfacc water and groundwaler fC'SOUfCC!l. The unmet dell1ll.ndsare very high in all unions in March and April, ••••ithApril being the most critiClll month, UnmCl demands in March and April are highest in Chehel8ll.2'j union, followed by Sankarpur and K~\11alpur. In b~.,~ y~ar, (h~ Illghesl demand is in March while the hlghe8t unmel demand is in April This is because the dcmand of March could partly be mct by thc a\'ailable supply whlle th~ defi~lt, he~om~ maximum in April However. in latcr ycars (as shown III Figur~s 7,8 lind 710) (he demand and unmct demand cO-lllsid~8 in the monlh of April. The av~rage unnllal irrigation unmet dcmands for the year; 2007, 2025 lind 2045 are 33.8 Million m-'. 55 6 Million \11)und 83,8 Million m' (19%. 28% and 37% of the totul annual water dcmand), rebpectlv~ly. The unrnet agricultural watcr demand:; for the month April of the years 2007. 2025 and 2045 are 20.4 lVIillion m', 242 MJ1IJOnm) and 292 Million m' (11.6%.123% and 13% of the lmal annual water demand) Unmet demands for th~ v~ars 2007, 2025 and 2045 for (he month oL\1arch ar~ 10,3 Million m-', 263 IVlllhon m.1 and 43 5 Mlliion m' (6%, 13% and 19% of the total annual demand), rcspeetively, In all cases, the agflcultur~ ,ector l~ the mo~t alTeeted because of lmy availabihty of groundwater through the us~ uf STWs: surface water availability is very low compared ,,,jth the total demand. which thus has to be met from groundwater unle,s othcr measures are tak~n up, 72 Table 7.2: Monlhl}' agriculture unmet demand (Thousand m') S""" h" "b I "n, I "P' I ;11.,)1:'"" I Jol I Au" I .,..~ I 0" I ."" I D" I .'"m I leo, i~1.7 173;fj IlH flO or; 10''', ",""''"' "" '" C' "" " " "" A"'''I"n ",, 91J9 I'l(, 0 ",. o , " ''', ,co 12 , "" I -''" " Cllcl"lg"; '" ""fJ(, m,j (,' " 1145 7 2)77.'1 ,.. " "J '" "" ,"" Ij " "" I -'"'~ J r,,,Ip'" 9'J , '"-15 (, J,e f)0 1'..1 107 ,, .\J 7; 7 " r) '" 4 '" ," ~",",Iru, ,, '" 1')7" 241 2 00 "0 J209 3 901 .' ", '" I I ", '" "" l'iJ'" 3 ') H lJO',' ~fn";"r,1 I 1 G J "e, 5 1424 ; 174 " " ~ ," " " 1,1,(, 00 ',kpm. I I 00 ~l'!7 I ",n, 199 J ) .. I n " fJ 00 11 '1 16B1.' '" 3),1.7 ''',nk"",", co, 00 102•. ' '016 L 248 , o " I '" or; I 00 10,0 '4' 00 ",,,hom O~ • S, 7 J 191 • 'J 0 00 ll7' 4 ", '"' J "" ", '" " 'nnd (A) Agricultural demand , (,i --I'(l,icullllr. Askarpu, -, ' Y r- ,e;- --""ncullll", .•••II.~"' '~ - I'(lricullllroCtl.holg>:ll V - "",;culll'" F,;z;I~ur rJ'--fligrioullllre Kam,lp"r ;.-' """cullll'" ",n;~pol ~ 1000, i~-- """cullll", So",u", I ,,,--1lq,;cu!OJre Sh,"I , , , 1.000 ~ -,, , -,- 'f 500. "'--i'~'-'-i--"'+"-'i"" t '-'-'~"'-'-i-"'-+-",,, , ' i , o Jon F" MOl "" ~l)' Jim Ju 'OJ s." 0,: ~'" Il>o 2007 2007 2001 2001 2007 2001 2007 2007 2007 _ 2007 '007 (ll) Agricultural unmct demand ' "~=~.,,',.,,o_•••.,',,',',," ,~ , " --""~'.~"""p" "., -! - _I _ , --",,~I.,.""".',,' ,- ,--"'''-'''"'' """" ,@ , __ •• ~""~ "'molp"' _. ------o "'"~I,",."'""',., ,- ______~---L-.'-- ~----'_ _ o - _",,~Iw~••"", ,~ " --"'"~,.~.,,.,,,..•.•' ,- ___L----c ---~-- - T --- "'--"'=,.~"'..,.~ ,~ ______L ~ -'- "' --"""""~"'"'"','," i- , "'''''',.,, u~,,,, ,j .,." ,,!.. "~ ---:- -,--- -'t--- -'------,.---- T ---'- ----j .--,-- ______!- i_ ---T- ,------:----t-- L , , , , , , ; .L. , - ""' , - , ,, - , -" , ,., - --'------"------t- ---+ ----- , i- ., ., ., •• •• ., ,. •• ., .,'" ••- • -., • ., ., • ., ., ., Figure 7.8; Total agricultural demand and unmet demand in different unions in base year 74 (A) Agricliltural demand 5,000. -- ,-- cr'o-=='~="'"=.','.'.=,,','o'o', -, ---t ---L-~----i.-t--t"--t--- F -i'(Ir\cIJltlJre ""Hap"' f';' -~ i'(Ir\cIJltlJr.Cl1ooolg.zi ~'~~+'~,t-- -;..----1-- ---r---- . , ' ' ' 9' -~ i'(IrfcultlJr.F.zilpIJ1 4,000_ ---i ---J----:-.-;-----k--+--- "-~i'(IriCIJltlJre Kamalpw Ii, I : I' Q' ••••ocultlJroIWlnicipal i 3,500_ ---t -~-r---!'--i--.-,- --t--"--- :-;.--~ i'(IriCIJltlJreSekpul\i i" -l'qrkultlJ", Sh,"k!lr~ur _~ ),000 _ 1 : -i- __ ~ i__~."'_.L_.- • ,,',,I I i. -/l(jriCllIIIJrt! Sh"h.,. , f. -/l(jriotJltlJro S"nd"b,n .., 2,500 i,'- j-- _.;-,~+-,-,1-,--t --<,;-- ," ~riotJltlJroU1i1r.i1 ,'I' I ~ 2,000 _...,.~----~---j- -,..----,----:---- • ,I "I ! i , ,I,' f , " 0----t- -,--- --.------;'"-"----1--~.-- , ' Ii! I! 1,000 -;-__ ! .... _; ., ' .1., I --~---f-- , , , ' ,, -I, I ---.;--+ -----;--r.. ,'---,-i i ---: : -,. -r- ii' ,I , "It 1"" J", .lJ1 Aug Sop = 2llIO ;I)'" ~;,; = ms (B) Agricultural unmet demand I'; ""riCIJllmekk.,~ur ,~ " -~~riotJltlJre ""Ii.p", 2.600_ V -~!\IriotJl!IJro Ch.h.lgali 2,400. j:.r _ !\IriCllltu'"F'lilpur ,~ i.- /l(jriCllltlJreK,m,lpur j.t ilgriCllltu'"IWlni Figure 7.9: Total agricultural demand and unmet demand in different unions in 2025 75 (A) Agricultural demand F--J>,jriCIJl!IJrePo"'I'"' + .~J_. ~----f---+---+--- r;.'--~riCIJl!lJre ""I••pu, i III ,.'T-,-i-.-~-:---~ -I __C ]_ r./--l'lloc"ltur. C~.~lg."- " ,I I i' --I'llncultu,e F.~lp"' ',,00 _ '----i--"~--t-.. --I' -'--I P- --l'llnoul!lJre Kamalp"' ii, I, !, I" i'll"oultu••",niap,1 J;i ',em ---'------r- -j---+- --;---'t-,.+-, ..-. ,_ - '-/lg,icultureS.kpure • ,>;~ -,---,--i I ----,---,--! !, '--/lg,icullu •• Sh.nkarpur i < iii ~ - "9oooltufES~a.~ara ,(; :!.[)CO ----" -t-----) ---,- - -,- ;~'-~f1cullu", Suod.,ba" ~ ~500 ---,- i.",_~_,,_,+_,_-;-,,_,J-- -, f -~--l'gnCIJllure UlIlT.il ! , : i , i: ' 10 ZOOO 4" -----:--i,----t ----;--~-- i : ' , ! r --j -l- • ','OIl ___,__"L__,_,:, ,,_~__, -+__ , iii ! i 1,000 _ ,-- --i--'----c-----'~~'---, " ' , _ :__ 1 >-__ + "' ; .~ M. J,. J~ A~ _ ~l N~ ~ _ Noll Noll 10<, 10<, ro.l5 2Ol' _ _ (8) Agricultural unmet demand •• --PgriCIJI!lJ'" Po'a'l'u' .~ p --l'llocul!lJ",""ll3p"' f'" -1'g~lilJre Chehefg',; 4_000_ V - /;lrioul!lJteFa"lpur 7 -PllTlouiture Kam.lpu, 3,500_ P /Ig,ioulture"""icip,1 , ;;- -- Pllncultu,eSekpu," ,p,ooo, ,.l __ / ,. "."e.JI ~, ._._J- .. Figure 7.11: Increased in unmet demand with lime Water Allocation hy SOllr~e8 The monthly water allocation from different sources is given in Table 7.3. The study area has three sources for water allocation such as ground water, Atrai River and Punarbhaba River, of which grOlmdwater is the major source throughout the year, including the dry season. The groundwater source was set as the first priority for the domestic demand as well as for industrial demand and second priority for the agricultural demand. The river water source, after meeting the environmental or in- stream £low demand as outlined in section 5.3 4, was set as the first priority for the agricultural demand, but it is a limited resource during the irrigation season The maximum water allocations are in January through April throughout the period of analysis, because it is the main irrigation season. On average, 98.6% of water is allocated from groundwater and 1.4% is covered from the Atrai and Punarbhaba River in a year. As it can be seen in Table 7.3 and Fib'urc 7.]2, Punarbhaba River has limited resources, compared to the Atrai River, and the latter was able to contribute more water during the irrigation season In the study area, the number of low hft pumps (LLP) L1sedis very few because of shortage of water in the rivers during the irrigation season. 77 Table 7.3: Monthly water allocation by sources in 2007 throllgh 2045 (Million mJ) hur Ftb ~I•• , """I'm -'" Apr M"" ."'" ',0 !' ,\t""fu,.,,- ".n 0,37 00 0" 00 00 ,n "." "." n" l "" Ground",",,, :1-'81 00.% ""J j 58 " I 3.'.,3 11 5~ 'M 1(,' 'm 7 'I, .'.41 !Gil 139,:':4 2U25 f'to,muJuba '" OW om 00 00 00 ""U '" "" 00 "" 00 00 (W7 '" 5uI\\ ,7.4<] 24.'. JJ ;0 1l,OO j 1 76 2 (,C, ;,65 j C4 ];J4 7,IG 54; lVl l.; I ';0 ,'IU" R,,-..- 0]7 ~.4l 047 0,20 OM " 00 00 00 " 00 :,24 """'11m-met 2itij! .""il 2) 01 IUS on 6,27 ""Ilw 1 "" .,,' 1.40 13929 2",," 1'uJ,,,OI,,",, '''' "" ,", ",n 00 00 '" 00 00 00 00 em l~"" I " "" "" ",m "-42 31.l0 2372 12 OJ 11n n, , 00 '" 1.40 'M ", ll", 141 ." Note: AllocatlOn from AInu and Punarbhaba mers am made after sall,f}'mg the demand for environmcnlal flow_ -,- --~-"-', -, __ .1_ ',,",,,"."".C,•.••,--, "~ , J !iil""""_ .~ -I ''''', ••, _ . c.. 1 " _ P~",.'"R~, _J _ .@ , '- - - '- , .~ oM -~--' '-- -'. .~ -- ~ I' ., •• -, !-- __L .,,_1, '- _1- -f ,_i_ , """'" __ 1 ' ; I ~ ---j- -. ,.. • , -'----f--- 1-- --'"4- --- !--- .. , ; , • ,0"'''' --T --j-- --..-.,," - , n """ ! ~ 1<@ - ---, ,"---'-j-, ----c- •M _ok • ---i--..,.-+----,---, ----:---- ,,~ ,.,j.""., '! i "!' -- 1 OM ----'-----.-----' -----,-- "I-'-f --'----"--i-- , "'" i , , .~ -t--~----,- ; 'M - . • ,. • •• m, .,• Figure 7.12: Monthly waler allocation by sources (allocation from Atrai and Punarbhaba rivers ar(;' m?dc after sati~fying the demand for environmental flow), 78 7.3 Allal.~'sisof Irrigation Effil"icncy Thi~ scenari" CQo"l(\ered 10% and 20% increased irrigation efficiency as a result of application of demand management tools These h\ll cases were considered as reasonable after expert cnnsul!ati()!1 with knO>vledgeable local professionals. l'hc lowered agricultural demands for alilhe unions for lhree ,napshot year; (2007, 2025 and 2045) for the two cases arc presented in Table 74 and 7.5. Total waler demand for DmUJPur Sadar Upazl1a under thiS scenario increase, from lJ2 million ill' in 2007 to 147 million m) in 2025 and 165 7 million ill1 in 2045. The lotal "'ater demand for agriculture is 148 4 million rn', 163,<;million m', and IR2,1 milhon mJ for 2007, 2025 1 and 2045, respectivel}' for the first CUbeand 132 million m-\ 147 mijjion m , and 165.7 mlliion mJ for the second casco 79 Table 7.4: Monthly agriculture water demand for 10% increased irrigation efficiency (Million m)) y,-.,- .Iul ."am, J,," ""b "a, -'P'- .\1,.'- '"" AU1 ", "" :<"'- "" SUm A"" I"" n )J 0- 0" " " " "' " "' "' "' '''' A"'''pm J ., 0- CO r, 'J "" lJ2 '" " " "' "' "' Ch Table 7.5; Monthly agriculture "'ater demand for 20% increased irngation efficiency (Million ml) ------y"". :;"'" .,"" "" 'I" '\p'- 'I., .'UTI ,luI .\". '" '" Sm ]),-,- '"C A,k'''l'''' ", r,'." 0,7 lU .1"1",,,,, " """;C, " " "" "' " 11 , ''.0 ')5 '" '>7 I " 2'" , '" "' "' "" "" 0,(, Ch,""S'" " "" U "' "' ",0 '" '" 0" I '" I 1";'1"" I." ," " , " , 'H' 0" co I 127 ",m,I,,", " "' " '" "' ,, 1," co I ,,' "' '" '" " , "" "" '" '" 1 '" I , ,r""",;", j , Oi' 0:' ',',3 0' I , " " " "' "' "' "' " S"P"'" ,,' 2,0 ",0 0,0 "0 '>e, I "p " " "' "' " " '"",k,n I"" , 0 '" J,! ).; o , f),a ('iJ " "' "' '" o " I '" I "ft."h.'" , " " o , (,(J '" '" " " I I " "" o , "' "" (,(J o"' , '"' S""d,,'," " co I 1'4 I "th,.,,' '" " ,"., " o , "' "" (, ,I,,,,,V"c ~, I , r",(J ," '"0 00 I,' 'J '\ul",p", " '" " " "' "' (\(J Cd, "' I " l" I U '" , '" , "" '" ".'J '" " J" S lVJ O,j ,, 18,l C",""~"" "' "' ,,,,I,,, " " " "' "' O,(]"" CO '" , " 'J O,j 15,9 1;.,,,,,1",,, '" " "' " "' "" '" " " "Co '" " "' ," l:l (}mnel 1)emm"J II"der ,he Scenario or Increased lrl'i;':aJioll l'fficieilLy l1nmel demands in the 11 unions of Dinajpur Sadar Upazila increased irrigation efficiency management 8tfalegie\ are presented in Tables 76 and 7,7 Increased ;rngatllln ",niClency management strategies reduce the u~met demand~ in all months Greater impact would be in the seven unions (FU7ilpur, Kamalpur, Sckpura, Shankarpur, Shashara, Sundarban and Uthrail) "hich arc adjacent to the river and hence have both surface water ~n KJUJLJwe UQ!lU1llJllpeSEJDU' %01 JQJ PUlllU~P l~luun ~JnllIU!-1jj'R"lljlUOj!\,j :9.t. ejqll.I, '" 83 Table 7.7: .\lonthly agriculture lIllITlC(demand f,)[ 20% lllcreased lfrigatlOll efflclency (Thousand m)) Nom, I ,r." I ,,',. I ."" I 'r'- I .",.'- I .'un I .Iul I .,". I .,.~ I Oct I .'"' I nee I Sum '00' ""'"V''' I 10' I l2" '15," I ,1)7 I.' 0 I 1.7 I.' "" I "" ' . 1'1.7 .\nl"r'" on .'94 0<, t, 0 LJJ ,", 289 7 I I MO I 6" "" I ," ( h,"ole'" '44 104, 76 I n,"" 4{) 0<, )l3 9 ~ " '0 "0 '" '"''r''' ,, or,' )),1 O(j " II.' ,n K,""lpn, '" "" " " " " J"!9 00 00 0<) 1 '0 ", " fJ JH "1"",,-,,,,1 '" "" " '" "" 1 ', )fJ J " , "' "" (,0 1 '" " " " [J ~21 S,lp"'" flO flO " (' ;, fO') 'JfJ ,,(, 1 " fJ " , , 1 '" " Sh,uk"I"" "" '" fI" ')U or: ,'J fJ flO ('" 1 flO I:,. II.' 'HI ,JJ Sh."I"" " " rt) flO " fJ fJO 1'll flO n n 0" 1 ' 7" o fJ 8,millub.,,, "' '" flO flO r'O H', 17(, Ln 7', " fJ 'H' " ') '0 " 1 " fJ Dlul 00 00 <'; l '" ", 1 ," 00 1 JG 7 S"m " " " "' " 1 'I)" '064 4''' ", 1 ll22 '" 1 1211')(, 2~15 '"" "" '"" "" "' '" ~',,",,", ,,.. ,,'"' 1 1214 fJ" 1 I 1711,' Ani"p'" "" "" " " '" " '.' "" ."J , %, I" I.J J, , 0(' f1,0 I ,,, 11.1 ,, 1,0-1.7 '" '" I (,h,'"1.-''' on .Ii & 110 0 192' i 15~ i " flo 00 1 17 9 ,n 2."8 i I "Hp"c " " " no .., 00 " 16)4 I 1'4" " '<0 '" '" ", " IJ 1';""1",,, "" lOG".' 1'177 " 00 '<0 " ", ," "" '" " IJ "'" ~ '.1"'""".1 '" )0.' "" flO J'J t'.U 136",0 "0 "'" J Solp''''' " ''" " " "" " ," '0 " fJ 117(,' 1 'J.(, fJ(' u,U ",f] 'h,nk,,!,'" ," "" "I "'~,' 1719 j 1<2 ~ " fJ0 'oo no 1271 1899 J l",,,,h,,, """ " " " o fJ 00 " 132.\7 1',9 ) "" "0 'oo ,'" "I " ]4%< I '"od"h,''' J)f, 00 O~ 00 m:"J 141 ~ ' 9 ,OG 147 I ," 1I,1",,,1 " '" ""~, .)[J ,,(J [(,52 H '-'(,4 or> fl(' c, , , " ,", 1 '0 "'" '! So", '" " 14<4 12.0 2%7 1724' ' 14240 312 12H 1 ,.', I '""42 2015 '" "" " " Ad,,!,", en ]5'>0 1 I'K, I )oH flO (,,(; O,(J ,713,; '" 1 " 0" '" Au["ru' ",.(, 4 ")7 , " (H' l(, 7 ,,,,,, y, " '" '""." 1 " " 0" I '25 I '" Ch,hd""" m, 1'))' 9 )~l., ',f) fJQ I;. I QQ 49166 "" ., '''7 " I j " '" I '",Ip'" (,f) "'l 1('''fJ C, 2'ml H, " I' J 'rI,t Q,Q '~,l,9 I '" 0 ," K,m,lpu' '" "" '" 0,0 100'8 .073 " "0 6 00 " Of) '" 00 '" 00 4,OJ 4 MlIHi';p,1 LCd 70 1222, 14'J'! fJ "" :.5 " "r> "" " " l?9 ..,4 ',kf'U" "., (J(' no""~ 1714' },' or> II r' "" J4193 %,"b,p'" '"" " "" '" "" 00 17474 ,14. j 1 .\4fJ 9 'J I,' 0" CO, 1'1 00 '271 7 51>"1.,,," " " " (jl) 00, 'oo 1340 I 1649 , l(" 4 CO '" I 0" 1Lg ,," CO 1283 1 '""',,h,o 00, 00 1741.6 ,1);4 .IJ' 7 ;; "',' 00 "'-1 ," CO '26G , lI,I'.,,1 " ,S 00 00 1679 S ,0\9 ) )276 n' ," 7 J 00 4(J8J 0 Sum '" " 170 1 ISOJ 17;275 21490' "19 2 J, 2 lq "I) o Ij 14118 Ie'\(, n,' 4W74 (, .~ 1II!;lI __ ~- '0-. . ---0 __ ~ ,.-- "lZ5i __ o l1li •••..••_ -~- I :.--g -_...--. I-~ ! ,_. I -- I , J-.- ,I '- ,~ '.- , • - Figurt 7.13: Union wise unmet dem:lIld for 10"/. increased irrigation efficient)' .~ a _ .~_. ,-i __ L " -- I :0_'_ , ~-----00 _ .~.- i --- ,f I ~a.J-.. . .-'- 1- :_--,m __ .~ 1 --- , ,----, "_~a- ,.-.::- -- ,,-~-Ii -- F:.~,- '-=.- • = • - -• - - - ~lgurt7.14: Union wise unmet demand for 20% incruscd iTTisation elTiciency , • • '\• • • " 85 7.4 More Utilization of Groundwattr Scenario-3 c\)n~idered Deep Tube wells (DTWs) exp~_nsil'n in the study ~rea a~ a possible scenario DLiring the recent past years, the number of Deep Tube wells (DTW) has significantly increased. In 2007, about 114 DTWs were in use compared to 85 orws in 2003. The numbers of DTW, needed to meet the unmet demands throughout the period of analysis Hrc shown in Table 7.8 and Figure 7.! 7. Table 7.8: Deep Tube well expansion needed to meet unmet demand in reference ,cenano No. of DTWs re uired 2025 '1>45 Askar uf ""' 27 41 Aul1a uf l'" 29. 43 Chehelgazi 22 ;6 54 l'az.ilPUT 1" 70 45 Kamalpu. 18 70 Munici a1 13 22 33" Sck um 13 25 38 Shanka ur 19 32 She,har:< 15 24 '"37 SWldarban 19 32 Uthrnil 18 ]11 '"45 "on" 193 318 4n DTWS CXP31\Sl 550 '" '"400 - Ii• 7" 209 "9 0 ,,, • 200 . .z ,so '" I ': I, ~ w , ~ i ~ ~ ~ g i ""~ ~ ~ i i ~ i ~ i ~ ~ ~ " y~c Figure 7.15: DTW, expansion 86 ll1creased ITng"l;o/! fIlicic""y a/oil;; with D7W.\' F:xpal/.\lOIJ rhe possib ili(y of alTecling domest'c '""ater supply through DTW \ might be reduced if imgatlon efficiency is implemented along with the expansion of DTWs, which lS aduully ,cellarto-4 ('O~structcd 1'01(he ,tudy_ Th,S w~n~no wlll also reduce costs It may he IlOled Lhat ~ost, and/or benefit aml1ysis wa.1 lIO! performed in the study, ahhough \VFAP "Jlow, for analy,!, of scenarios also in telm~ (Ji" cos!> and benefits The numbers of required DTWs arc .Iignificamly reduced if irrigutlOn et1iciency management is calried out in conjUJldlun with expansion In D j Ws, as illustrated in l'able 7 9 and Figure 7.16 Tnhle 7.9; DTWs expansion using lrrigation efficiency .\0. ofDTWs required for 10% No. of DTW, ,.rquired for 20% J\'ame I incl"c",ed irrioa~joll effiriencv increased irrigation efficiency 2007 2025 2045 2007 2025 2045 ASkaT]lur 1 10 21 ."'uila lit 10" "19 "21 2 11 22 Chehd,gazi 23 28 2 12 Fimlpur "9 19 22 I III '"22 Kamalplll" 2<1 :;2 "0 I 10 22 /l.lulllclpal I "7 1,1 22 1 8 17 Sck lira 8 [(, n 11 9 20 Sh~nbr Uf III 20 34 0 11 Shashara 7 [(, H, 11 8 "19 Sllnd~rh~n HI 20 34 1 11 lJlbrail , to 22 0 10 I "n s,"" 100 204 33S 7 111 24'; 87 = ,~------_._------~ ---_ .•.-----.------_._-----._------_ .._------~300 c ~ o ~ !J200 "E 100 :£ 100 ~ o ~ ~ , "8 - " , , , , 0 g 0 0 "0 0 " ! - -g g - - •" 0 g ••- g , • " " " " " - -, !--• -" -- " " - - - Year - J Figure 7.16: DTWs expansion for )0% find 20% increased irrigation efficiency Augmenting Surface Waler Flow through Ruhber Dam To increase the eldent of surface water irrigation in the study area, a scenario of a rubber dam/water control stl1leture construction in Punarbhaba River is considered. This wOl.lldhelp to store surface water for irrigation in Punarbhaba river in post monsoon (October to May) without creating any drainage problem in monSOOll.This would also increase groundwater recharge in the post monsoon, During the survey in the study area, it was found that local people also prefer irrigation from surface water than groundwater liS it is cheap and keeps the farmland more fertile. Water Allocation using Rubber Dam For this scenario, the study area has three sources for water such liS ground water, Atrai River, and Gouripur Rubber Dam (Punarbhaba River) (s~ Table 7,10). Rubber dam is the major source during the winter season for agriculture for four unions, Auliapur, Municipal, Chehelgazi and Sundarban and it is the first priority agricultural use for those unions, The groundwater sourc-e is the first priority for the domestic demand as well as industrial demand and second priority for the agricultural demand. Seasonal critical water a11ru;ation in agriculture is moderately covered from mhher 'dam and groundwater. The yearly approximate water allocations are 29.62 %, 69.36% and 1% covered from the rubber dam, groundwater and Atrai River throughout the 88 year, The monthly water allocation, from the different SOLIrce, are given In Tabk 7 10 Tallie 7.10: Monthly \,aler allocation using rubber dam (Mlillon m)) -- F,b .\t,) ,hm D,,, ~ s,,""" ."". ,~" .I,,' '\"" "'r 0" 1'" 'um 1= - _\",; "h-" on fJ 1(, ",-, (\I' MO 0,00 D GO 000 000 ~ 08 I fJ'" o " ", ("""em R"b,,, D,n" lIJ " 1<)(,2 , ]'J2 "ro" ,." I.'J H,' ,J).Oj ,um I "'-' '"2 "'" "'" "0" (",_'""",,,"sl (, G L (,I, fJ(,7 'J G7 I "", "" '" "72 0" " (,C, o ') 3-' " (.' "'" C,"""d""1,, 1 l ~ 50 I 175°1'-'04 ...'1 o 14 OJ< ,"; '" '" '''' '" (, '" "."' I"m l~\oI I ;<,«, 1 , 1 'J o '. 12 0(,0 JU (,(, "i' "" 1 "J 0"" J '" ~, I "" '" .~,,,h',, 0,)0 I 0)1 o j I 0,37 0,16 '00 0" o O~ o l;o "CO o 00 " 1, ]79 Go",,,", R"01'" n"", lL jJ In 'n rJ(,' IJ(,' (J IJO o IJ 0"""""'"''' 1 1.11: I,Rl ,, '9 II 27 I.J~ j 21 G96 44 89 He '" ,n (;'"""""'''" 1 21," , ) 1 j ,9 '" 4lJ '" 19 " 1"31 7.'1 U9 026 ", ~," 7% " '9 '"m "" .1(,71 n_11 ,HI 10,19 '" H' l.4S l.4S He 7 J9 jJ 79 I BI 87 UI/met Demand u.I'mgRuhber !Jam Unmet demands of Dinajpm Sadar upazila for the scenario of a ruhber dam in Punarbhaba Ri,er are presented in Table 7.11. It is observed in 4 unions (Dinajpur l\lumcipal, Chehelgazi, Ahap'" and Sundarban unions) that no unrnet water demands were expo~ed in all monlhs l111 2045 as per use of rubber dam, The average annual irrigation unmel demands fOTthe year, 2007, 2025 and 204:i are Ifi 69 MlIlio~ m", 2883 Mllhon mJ and 44 23 ivlilhon ml (9.5%. 146% and ]96% of the total annual Waler demand), respectivel}" The unmet agricultural waler demands for the month Apnl of the years 2007, 2025 and 2045 are 20 4 MillIOn m), 24 2 Milhon m' and 29 2 j\fillion m' (704%, 74% and 77% of the total annual water demand) Unmet demand~ for the years 2007, 2025 and 2045 for the month of March are 3.18 Million me', 12 14 Mijjion m' and 23 44 Million m1 (l 8%, 6.15",'0 and 104% ,,1' the total annllal demand), rebpect"rely, J Table 7.11: Momhly agricllllure tLIlmel demand lLling rubber dam (lI.hllilln m ) """,e I .I.m I j ,h I ."". I 'P" I ",.' I ,]U' I .luI I 'ug I S'P I 0<1 I ~" I n" I Sum """ .HMrm " I){' 0"0 fJ 4.' 1.68 o IS 0'0 o Or, 000 GOt- U O~ "'0 ,", 227 Au]","", o O'J """ fJ 00 (J Ii(J OW o (JO """ OUO fJ 00 o O(J 00" o fJ 7.5 Discu~sion While the elTectivcncss of the use ofWEAP in the current study is found very good, and possibility of its application in olher, more complex by,tem, lJl Bangladesh is found 10 be very bright, the inve~ligalor, howe\'er. is not yet m a p"<'llion to make 'firm' rccommeodmiOTlS with regard to the management or demands in the study area, wbleh ,",'a, llsed a~ a study example. The model wa, made simplified for this pIlot applicatlOJl, A number of assumption:, need to be verified and some of the datu and hypotheses reqUire refinement in comultation \vith prinClpul ~ctors in the ~ludy area For example. hydrologlC variability in (he supply source; was nOl consideled. which ~ould inlll.lencc the result, of the study. Data on variabJlity of gruunuwaler storage potentials among different unions ,"lab not availahle, and a conservative estimate of environmental /low was u~ed_ The scenano ofDT\V, "as considered, which would largely meet all unmel demands in future: ho"vever, the impact of withdrawals by DrWs on HTW, and STWs was not considered, whi"h would depcnd on thc degree of hydrauh~ connectedness betwcen shallo,v ami deeper aquifers NCvc11hcle,s, the study has revealed some reasonable and vcry useful estimales of demands and unmet demands m dLffi:rent scenarios, and provldcs a clear indicaLion about the realitics and po.l,ibilitlcs about future for the study area Chapter Eight Conclusions and Recommendations 8.1 Conclnsions The study represent5 a fir,t attempt at applying and testing the WEAr model as a means of addre5sing how to meet demands and water allocation in an admmislratlve Upw,;la in the northwe5t region of Bangladesh. F.ITorts were made to collect and repre5ent data in the WEAP set-up as accurately and reliably as possible. The study provIded a good insight about the water management and allocation problems in the study area, and how WEAP can be effectively used in analy/ing difl"'Tent scenarios of (he 1 "sue~, including different policy strategIes. BaseG on the obtained results. the following conclusions are made: • Total water demand in the ~tudy area is projected to increases from 175.3 million m' in 2007 to 197.5 IlllllJon m' m 2025 and 226.0 million m1 in 2045. The total water demand for agricuUllre, domestic and industry sectors are 164.9 million m", 8.93 million m3, and 1,46 million m' respectively in 2007 J (base year), which will be increase (0 183.7 million m , 12.15 million m} and 1.62 million mJ in 2025 and 207.0 million m], 17.13 million m' and 1.82 million mJ in 2045. • Within the study area approximately 94% of the total demand is agricultural demand and only a small percentage is for domestic and industrial demand. So agriculture 15the duminating sector among the demand sites, • Domestic demand is far greater in Dinajpur Sadar Municipal than other UrJlons. The highest industrial demand of the study area is in Din~ipur Municipal area, followed closely by that Chehelga. maximum water demand for domestic use is in March & Apnl, for industry it is in May & June, and for 3griculture in January to April. • Tn the Reference Scenario, the water dctl13nd for domestic 31ldindustnal uses "ere fully coveTed; neither are there any unme! demands in the base year, nor any unmet demands throughout the penod of analysis. • The UlllllCldemands are very high in all unions ill March and ,l,.pril,with April being the most critical month. Urunct demands in March and April are highest in Chchclgazi union, followed by Sankarpur and K.aJruJlpur. • The average annual irrigation unmct demands for the years 2007, 2025 and 2045 are 33.8 Million m3, 55.6 Million mJ and 83.8 Millionm'(19%, 28% and 37% or the tolal annual waler demand), respectively. The unmCl agricultural water demands for the month April orthe years 2007, 2025 and 2045 arc 20.4 J Million m , 24.2 M,llion m" and 29.2 Million m' (11.6%, 12,3% and 13% of the total annual water demand). • Increased Irrigation efficiency throllgh the application of irrigation eftieieney managementlools would redllce lInmet demands signilieantly; however, there will remain considerable demand unmet in future, especlally in the crillcal month of April. A 10% increased irrigatIon efficiency wOlild result in a reduction of 97% and 24% unmet demands in March and April, respectively, while a 20% increased irrigation efficiency would lower demands in those months by 97.4% and 2.2%. Greater impact would be in the seven unions (Fazilpur, Kamalpur, Sekpura, Shankarpur, Shashara, Sundarban and Uthrail), for which demands would be met in near future, but would remain unmet in laler years as demands grow further. • To increasing use or DTWs allow meeting the unmet demands fully. Expansion or DTWs has already been a trend in the study area. The need for using DTW" will increase Ii-om 193 nos in the base year to 318 nos in 2025 and 478 in 2045. • However, combination of scenario of expansion of DTWs and application of irrigation efficiency m3l1agement tools would substantially reduce the required number of DTWs in the study area, which implies involvement of less cost and also less possible impact on HTWs and STWs. 93 • A rubber dam in Plmarbhaha Ri~er, which 1Sa hkely scenario in future, would meet unmet water demands in the command areas In Dmajpur Municipal, Chehelgazi. Ahapur am] Sundarban unions all month, Illi 2045; ho\vever, there ""ill be some demands left after that time, 8.2 Recommendations The following recommendations can be drawn Ii-omthe study: • WEAl' can be applied effectively in water resources planning and management in Bangladesh. While the present application of WEAP was made to an administrative Upa~ila, f"(lIre applications could be made in hydrological catchment units. Many of the apphcaliuns of 'NEAP across the world have been in river basins. Integrated "ater management is be:.t achieved ifi! is done in a river basin. • Since climate change issue is of ulmost Importance in lhe context of Bangladesh, future studies can investigate the changes in water availability (e.g. ri~er flow) or water requirement (e,g. changed irrigation water requirement because of any changes in ET(J),and estimate the impacts in water allocation and demand management. • Future applications could he made to bigger, more complex systems to assess the usefulness of WEAP in the context of Bangladesh, Hydrologic variability in supply sonrces will need to be consldered, together with primary, accurate assessment of environmental flows. Dirrercnt management strategies ",ill need to be evaluated in terms of their impacts and costs and beneril,. • The present apphcation is made in an area, in which groundwatcr is the dominating source of ,vater. Future applications should be made to areas. where wateT use, especially irrigation, l~ also strongly dependent ou surface "later availability, and where surface water and groundwater could be conjunctively used. • Futnrc studies could use WEAP DSS 10 analy~e the impacts of (bfferent water management strategics as outline Abu~el(.l, K., and Afifi, S. (2006) Mulli-SeLloral Uses of Water & Approaches to DSS in Water Management in the NOSTRUM Partner Countnes of the Mediterranean. FEEM Working Paper No. 100.06. Avail3blc at SSRN: hltp:l/s>m.comi~bslracl=914516 Abdullah, M. N., and Munir, A. (20m). Decision support system (DSS) for irrigation wmer management in sugarcane plantatIOn. Fakultas Per1anian dan Kehutanan, Universitas Hasanuddin Makassar, lndonesia. J, Sains & Teknologi . 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