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1I111111111111gll111ft 111072211 SIMULATION 01' WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS IN DIN,\.JPUR SADAR UPAZILA USING WRAP MODEL A Thesis by ;\'Id. Shafiqur Rahman IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE MASTER OF SCIENCE IN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMEI\T SUET March,2009 ,It___ _ 1I111111111111gll111ft 111072211# _ INSTITUTE OF WATER AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT BAi'lGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF EI\GINERRING AND TECHNOLOGY BANGLADRSH UJ'IiIVERSITY o.r ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY I!'iSTlTUTE OF WATER AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT The thesls titled 'Simulation of Water Resources Management Scenarios in Dinajpnr Sadar Upil1:ila u~ing WEAP Model' submllted by Md. Shafiqur Rahman, Roll No. MF 04052817, Session: April 2005, has been accepted as satl,;Eletory ill partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of M. Se. in Water Re80urees Development ill March 25, 2009, BOARD OF EXAMINERS Chaiml<Ul ~~~ Dr. Mashfiqus Sa1chin (Supervisor) Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Dhaka .~...~ Member Dr. Rezaur Rahman Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh Umversity of Engmeering and Technology Dhaka Member Dr. Anlsul Haque (Ex-orficio) Proressor and D,rector Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Dhaka Member Dr. Nilufa Islam (External) Om",tor (Technical) Water ResoliTCes Planmng OrganizatIOn (W ARPO) Dhaka • CANDIDATE'S DECLARATION It is hereby declared thaI this thesis or any part of l! has nol heen submitted elsewhere for the award of an\, degree Md. Shafiqur Rahman Roll No. MF 04052R17 Session: April, 2005 ~, - , 0 Dedicated to my BELOVED MOTHER AND REA VENLY FATHER • •.. ., ,~ . Table of Contents Pagc No. Table of contents LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS XJ1l ACKJ'lJOWLEDGEMENT XIV ABSTRACT Chapter One Introduction 1-5 11 Background 12 Objcctivcs 4 1.3 Outline oflhe Methodology 4 14 Structure oflhe ThesIs 5 Cbapter Two Literature Review 6-20 2.1 Tntroduction 6 2.2 Crilicallssues ill Water Resources Management 6 2.2.1 Global Context 6 2.2.2 Context ofBanglade,h 7 2.2.3 Need for IWRM 9 2.3 Demand and Supply Scenario in Bangladesh 9 2.3.1 Water Demand 9 2.3,2 Water Availabihty 11 2.3.2.1 Surfaee \Vater Availability 11 2.3.2.2 Groumlwater Availability 12 2.3.3 National Policies with Demand 13 Management 2.3.4 Demand Management Tools 13 2.4 Water Resources Management Tool 14 2.4, I Decision SliPPOrl Tools Used ill Bangladesh 14 2.4,2 Decision SllppOrl Tools Used In Other 16 Countries 2.5 WEAP DSS 18 2.5.1 DescriptIOn orthc WEAP 18 2.5.2 Application ofthc WEAP 19 Chapter Three Study Area 21-28 3.1 General Overview 21 3.2 Households atld PopulallOn 23 3.3 Climate 23 34 Topography and Physiography 25 3.5 Hydrogeological Setting 25 36 Drainage and River System 26 3.7 Existing Agrieliltural Practice 27 3.8 Water Use 27 3.9 Irrigation System and Coverage 28 Chapter Four WEAPModel 29-48 4.1 Introduction 29 4.2 Application Steps 29 4.3 Scenario Analysis 30 4.4 Demand Management CapabilitIes 31 4.5 Envlronmental Effect 31 4,6 Selling lip WEAP Analy~is 31 4.6.1 Schematic Development of Study Area 31 4.6.2 Demand Analysis 36 4.6.3 Hydrology 39 4,6.4 Supply and Resources 39 4.7 Ca1cl.llalion Algorithms 40 4.7.1 Annnal Demand and Monthly Sl.lpply 40 Requirement Calculations 4.7.2 lnnows and OulDows or Water: Use or 41 Lmear Program 4,7.3 RIver 43 4.7.4 Local Sllpply 44 4.8 Setting-lip WEAP Model of the Dinajpur Sadar 45 Upazila Chapter Five Demand Estimation 49-57 5.1 Introduction 49 52 Selection orBase Year 50 53 EstimatIOn oI'CUlTcnt Demand 50 5.3.1 Dome,lic Demand 50 5.3,2 AgnclLHural Demand 52 5.3.3 Industrial Demand 53 5.3.4 Environmental Demand 54 5.4 Supply 54 5.4.1 River 55 5.4.2 Groundwater 56 Chapter Six Scenario Construction 58-61 61 lntrOdUCtlOll 58 6.2 Scenario ConslnLc1ion 59 Scenario I: Population gro\\1h 59 Scenario 2: Increased Irrigation Efficiency 60 Scenario 3: Groundwater is More Fully Exploited OJ Scenario 4: Groundwater is .Fully Exploited 61 together with Increased ImgallOn Efficiency Management Strategies Scenario 5: Rubber Dam Conslmction 61 Chapter Seven WEAP Simulation Results 62-90 7.1 Introduction 62 7.2 Waler Demand in the "Reference Scenario" 62 Unmel Dcmand 70 Water Allocation by Sourccs 76 7.3 Anal y'lS of Irrigation F rricicncy 78 UWlet Dcmand under thc Sccnario of lncrc3sed 81 Vlll • Imgation Efficiency 74 More ljtilization of grOLmdwatcr 85 Increased Irrigation Effkiency along w1(h DT';Vs 86 ExpansIOn t\llgmcntmg Surface Water Flow through Rubber 87 Dam Waler Allocmion using Rllhbcr Dam 87 Uumel Demand using Rubber Dam 88 7.5 Discussion 90 Chapter Eight Conclusions and Recommendations 91-93 8.1 Conclusions 91 8.2 Recommendations 93 References 94 LIST OF TABLES Puge No. Table 3,] The Area, .population and Literacy Rate hy Dinajpur Sadar 23 Upalila Table 3.2 Oinajpur Sadar UpaZlla Irrigation Coverage 28 "lable5.1 Population of Different Domestic Demand in DIfferent 51 Unions Table 5.2 Union Wise Agncullura] Demand 53 Table 5.3 Union Wise Industrial Information 54 Tahle 5.4 Monlhly River flows Available in Rivers (m'fs) 55 Table 5,5 Monlhly River flo"', available in the 81~dyarea (mJfs) 56 Table 5,(' Avallah1c Groundwaler Resources ofDmajpur Sadar 57 Upa:!.ila Table 7.1 .Monthly Water Demand in Different Sector, 2007, 2025 66 and 2045 Table 7.2 Monthly Agriculture Unmet Demand 72 Table 7.3 Monthly Waler Allocation by sourees in 2007 through 2045 77 Table 7 4 Monthly Agriculture Water Demand lor 10% Increased 79 Irrigation "Efficiency Table 7,5 Monthly Agriculture Waler Demand for 20% Increased 80 Imgation Efficiency Table 7.6 .Monthly Agriculture Unmet Demand for 10% Increased 82 Irrigalion Etliciency Table 7.7 Monthly Agriculture Unmct Demand for 20% Increased 83 Irrigation Efiiciency Table 7,8 Deep Tube weB Expansion needed to Meet Unmet Demand 85 in Reference Scenario Table 7.9 DTWs Expansion using lrrigalion EITlcicncy 86 Table 7.10 Monthly Water Alloemion Usmg Rubber Dam 88 Table 7.11 Monthly Agricull\lre Unmet Demand using Rubber Dam 89 LIST OF FIGURES Page No. Figure 2.1 Crilieal Issues from Global Perspective 7 Figure 3.1 Location Map oflhe Study Area 22 Fib'ure 3.2 MontWy Average Rainfall at Dmajpur Station 24 Figure 3.3 MontWy Average Maximum and Minimum at 24 Dinajpllr Station (Celei us) Figure 4.1 Construetiollof\VF.,l,P Sehcmatie Vie'" 32 Figure 4.2 Demand Analysis m WEAP 36 Figure 4,3 Aclivity Levd in WEAP 37 Figure 4.4 Waler IJsc Rate in \VEAP 37 Figure 4.5 Schematic Fcahlre ofDinajpur Sadar Upazila 46 Figure 6.1 Expected Population Growth in II Unions of 50 Dmajpur Sadar Upazila Figure 7.1 Expec!ed Domestic Water Demand Growth OJ Flgure 7.2 E:>.pecle<lIndustrial \Vater Demand Grov,1h 6J Figure 7.3 Expected Agricultural Water Demand Growth 64 Figure 7.4 Arumal Waler Demand Growth 64 Figure 7.5 Domestic Demand Gro\'v1h.2007, 2025, 2045 69 Figure 7.6 Industry Demand GW\'vth, 2007, 2025, 2045 69 Figure 7.7 Agriculture Demand Growth, 2007, 2025, 2045 70 Figure 7.8 Total Agricultural Demaud and Unmct Demand in 73 Differcnt Unions in Base Year Figure 7.9 Total Agricultural Demand and Urunet Demand in 74 D,fferent Unions in 2025 Figure 7.10 Total Agricultural Demand and Unmet Demand in 75 Different Unions in 2045 Figure 7.11 Increased in Unmel Demand with time 76 hgure7,12 1Ilollthly Water Al1oeation by Sources 77 Figure 7,]) Union Wise Unnwl Dcmand for 10% lncrea~cd 84 Irrigation EffiCiency FigClre7.14 Union Wise Unmet Dcmand for 20% Increased 84 Irrigation Efficlcncy FigClre7.15 DTWs Expansion 85 Figme7.16 DTWs ExpanslOll j;)r 10% and 20% Increa,ed 87 Irrigation Efficiency ..~~ ~ ~ ...•• LIST OF ABBRJ<:VIATJOl\"S BADe Banglade~h Agricultural Development Corporation llPDB Bangladesh Power llevelopmenl Board liUS Bangladesh Bureau of Stamtic5 UMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department BUET Bangladesh University lfEnginecring and Technolugy BWDB Bangladesh \Vater Development Hoard CEGIS Center for En"'fOnmenlal and Gcographlc lnrormalion Services DAE Department of Agriculture r::<ten,l()Jl DSS DecIsion SllPPOI1 System DT\V, Deep Tube Weli> FAP Flood Action Plan GIS Gcographlc Information System IL"\l1 lnternationallrrigation Management institute lWM In:,tltute of\.Valer ~lodclmg I\VRM Integrated Water Resources Management MIS Management In!,,mlalion System MPO Master Plan Organization MWR Mimstry or \Vater Resource, NWMP National Waler Management Plan }.[WPo I\'ational Water Policy SEI Stockholm Environllle~t Inslitute s;yw.c Snowy Mountain Engineering Corporation STWs Shallow Tube Wel1~ UN United Nations WARPO Waler Resources Plannmg Organization \VB World Bank WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System \l,'HO World Health OrganiLalion XII! ACKl'i'O\VLEDGEMENT At the very outse!,1 ackllowl~dg~ the ble%ing of Almighty Allah Ihe 8~nefic~nt, the Mere; ful for enabling me to compl et~ th~ ,tud] QuecessfuJ1y. T would like to express my sinc~r~ and heartiest gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Mashfiqus Salehm, As;ociat~ Professor, Institute of Wat~r and Flood Management (I\VFl\f), BUET, for his constant guidance. "aluable advice, generous help and constructive dIscussion to carry out this research I eon;HJer myself to be proud to have ",orked with him. Without h,S generou<; help and invaluable sugg~stions from the beginning to the end, thIS "'o<k would have not been materi~il7~d.
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