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British Geostrategy for a New European Age Luis Simón and James Rogers

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British Geostrategy for a New European Age Luis Simón and James Rogers THE RUSI JOURNAL bRITISH Geostrategy for A new European AGE LUIS SIMóN AND James ROGERS For decades, European security has been assured by a grand, Anglo-American inspired political and economic project on the continent. Today, there is a risk that the old certainties are unravelling. In a previousRUSI Journal article, Luis Simón and James Rogers warned of the new risks in Europe; now, the authors offer a strategy for Britain to retain its vital place at the crux of an open, liberal European system. n the pages of this journal a year ago, Ocean, reached initial operational and Paris (and Warsaw) to discuss we warned of a return of geopolitical capability, and a prototype stealth fighter European security arrangements. To Icompetition in Europe, pointing has generated widespread interest the continent’s southeast, Turkey is also to the formation of bilateral groupings among military experts and political emerging as an important geopolitical among the main continental powers pundits.3 Furthermore, Japan’s increasing actor, often adopting positions that clash (chiefly Russia, France and Germany).1 assertiveness – as evidenced by a new with the interests of Britain and the rest Importantly, these relationships defence review that breaks with the of the European Union on energy security have started to bypass the post-war country’s post-war introspective tradition or Middle Eastern affairs (particularly multilateral structures – the Atlantic – and America’s whopping investment of concerning Israel, Iraq and Iran). Alliance and, increasingly, the European over £8 billion for upgrading its military Against this backdrop, this article Union – which, for over six decades, station in Guam are among many other assesses the extent to which Britain can have organised European political and examples illustrating the increasing prevent the collapse of the balances economic cohesion around integration geopolitical centrality of East Asia.4 that have underpinned economic and representative government. Having These developments exert a ‘pull’ effect prosperity and general security on the identified the US’s gradual withdrawal emanating from eastern Eurasia, which European mainland since the Second and downscaling of Europe as a focus continues to weaken America’s presence World War. We move from geopolitics of its geostrategy, we argued that the on the European continent, removing the to geostrategy. We argue that Britain’s proliferation of bilateral groupings could decisive factor that has helped Britain to position in the unfolding decade will lead to a de-structuring of a largely manage the regional geopolitical balance depend on the decisions over the next British-inspired Europe. Over the last year for over six decades. few years. Here, new and strengthened things have moved quickly; both in terms At the same time, budgetary crises bilateral alliances can and must play of tectonic geopolitical shifts globally and across the EU have highlighted tensions a key role in safeguarding Britain’s in Europe, and Britain’s response to those among key member states over the influence over an increasingly challenging changes. strategic direction of the European regional environment. Indeed, the The rise of Asia (and China in Monetary Union, testing the resilience British Conservative-Liberal coalition particular) is now a dominant theme for of European economic integration and government, in office for almost a year, foreign policy experts. China’s economy political stability.5 The US ‘reset button’ has already started to adapt to new has, so far, emerged from the global with Russia has crystallised into a new realities: not only has it renewed an financial crisis stronger, with larger Atlantic Alliance-Russia strategic concept historic military alliance with France, capital reserves to buy itself influence and forced Poland’s hand into a more but it has also strengthened economic across the world – including in Europe.2 accommodating stance toward Moscow.6 and political ties with the Nordic space. Economic growth has come hand-in- Russia’s gains and role in Eastern Europe, However, these successes aside, Britain’s hand with military modernisation: in southeastern Europe and the Caucasus bilateral policies must also be anchored 2011, a new anti-ship ballistic missile, are now broadly recognised, and Moscow in an institutional framework such as specifically intended to push American takes part in an informal yet increasingly the European Union; otherwise, the carrier groups deeper into the Pacific institutionalised framework with Berlin chances for long-term success will © RUSI JOURNAL APRIL/MAY 2011 VOL. 156 NO. 2 pp. 52–58 DOI: 10.1080/03071847.2011.576475 RUSI 156_2 TEXT.indd 52 13/04/2011 10:17:53 No room for the UK? French President Nicolas Sarkozy, centre, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, right, and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, left, meet for a two-day summit in Deauville to discuss joint security challenges, October 2010. Courtesy of AP Photo/Remy de la Mauviniere. be poor due to the sheer scale of the steppe, the European plain has fertile necessary to quash Imperial Spain’s bid forces working against British interests. farmland, numerous river systems and for ‘Universal Monarchy’ in the sixteenth In this spirit, we propose a series of good harbours that have, over the last century. It was against growing Dutch policy recommendations that include a few centuries, underpinned trade and naval power that the British fought to strengthening of the bilateral relationship unrelenting agricultural and industrial negate the dominance of the United with Germany, an opening of the military development.8 These geographic Provinces in the seventeenth century. It agreement with France to other European enablers provided Europeans with the was at Waterloo, in Belgium, in the early countries and a greater willingness stimulus necessary to forge the world’s nineteenth century, that Britain delivered towards economic and political first modern industrial nation-states the final knockout blow to France’s bid government at the European level. and build ‘go-anywhere’ empires. The for European hegemony. And, it was European plain’s northwestern tip is only for the northwestern pivot during The European Plain and British particularly significant: it has long served the twentieth century that London was Security as the geopolitical ‘pivot’ of Europe. Since prepared to sacrifice its global imperium The UK has, for over three centuries, Charlemagne, all the European great on not one, but two occasions to prevent been the ultimate arbiter of European powers – France, Spain, Germany and the the Low Countries’ incorporation into a affairs. The British, safe in their island UK – have struggled to control this zone. hostile German order – or, indeed, get citadel, have been free to gear their For Britain, this makes the Low swallowed up by the Soviet empire that military towards power projection, Countries particularly significant. Control followed.9 providing the means to usurp budding of the northwestern pivot is essential for After 1945, the UK (backed by the European overlords. The central logic of the two overriding and deeply entwined US) concentrated on devising a lasting British geostrategy has been to maintain objectives of British geostrategy: firstly, institutional arrangement in Europe to a favourable balance of power on the the maintenance of a favourable balance prevent another devastating great power European mainland – and particularly of power on the European plain and run on the Low Countries. The Atlantic the European plain – to prevent a the European mainland more broadly; Alliance and European integration were threat from materialising to the heavily and secondly, ensuring that Britain’s central to this enterprise. Here, it is populated English core, which, in global maritime power projection – a crucial to remember that in spite of turn, would jeopardise Britain’s wider prerequisite for commercial activity – is its early reluctance to directly engage global interests.7 Stretching from the unhindered. So it was in the Netherlands in the European Community (and its French Atlantic coast to the Russian that the British poured the resources reservations to fully engage in the EU 53 RUSI 156_2 TEXT.indd 53 13/04/2011 10:17:56 british Geostrategy for a new European Age today), Britain has always understood Moscow’s assertiveness towards what it political and economic rules that have European integration as part of a wider, regards as its ‘near abroad’ snuffed out governed European politics for decades. largely British-inspired, French-executed the likelihood of further pro-European In this regard, the emergence of the and American-backed geopolitical democratic revolutions throughout the triumvirate between Russia, Germany agenda. After all, the ‘software’ region. and France (recently joined by Poland) to governing European geopolitics over Likewise, the 2008 conflict was discuss European security arrangements the past six decades – free trade and crucial in undermining Ukraine and has acquired a different meaning, not representative government – was only forcing it into rapprochement with Russia, least due to America’s ‘reset button’ made possible when filtered through a best illustrated by the recent change of rhetoric vis-à-vis Russia. Paris and particular ‘hardware’, that is, a British government in Keiv and the renewal of Berlin, in particular, see the rise of an and American-led maritime Europe, Russia’s lease over the naval station in
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