Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Volume 6, Issue 1 Jan/Feb 2014 Annual Threat Assessment SOUTHEAST ASIA Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore SOUTH ASIA Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA China and Central Asia MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Somalia INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH S. RAJARATNAM SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY 2 ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT Terrorism and Political Violence in 2013 Southeast Asia peace talks were held in January 2014. Iraq, too, remains besieged by sectarian violence and constant attacks. In Yemen, Southeast Asia has seen some of its insurgencies and conflicts multiple insurgencies and a robust threat from Al Qaeda in the diminish while others have continued unabated. In Thailand, the Arabian Peninsula have hampered an already difficult political restive south continued to see violence in 2013 while Bangkok transition. In Egypt, Morsi’s ouster has seen protests continuing witnessed a political crisis with protests against the government to plague the country while the military attempts another turning violent. In Myanmar, reforms have moved forward but political transition. Libya, meanwhile, faces a persistent security communal violence continues to plague the country and has challenge in its southern border region and the success of its evolved from targeting Rohingyas towards Muslim minority transition after Gaddafi will depend on the militias which communities in general. Indonesia continues to face a potent deposed the former dictator giving up their arms. In Somalia, threat from radicalization and concern has emerged over the al-Shabaab has intensified its campaign against the role its “hard” counterterrorist approach is playing in fueling government in the wake of a hardline faction emerging further extremism. The Philippines, on the other hand, dominant. witnessed much progress in its peace process with the Moro EDITORIAL STAFF Islamic Liberation Front, although some Moro factions and groups continue to oppose the peace process. Malaysia, like Editor Indonesia, continues to grapple with radicalization, while Dr. Arabinda Acharya Singapore has remained alert for extremist elements. Associate Editor South Asia Manoj Harjani The withdrawal of the NATO-led coalition from Afghanistan in SUBSCRIPTION 2014 remains the most prominent concern for the region and beyond. Pakistan, meanwhile, remains embattled by sectarian Send an email with your full name and the name of your violence and a resilient Pakistani Taliban, but has taken several organization to [email protected] with the subject “CTTA steps in 2013 to increase its counterterrorist capabilities. Subscription.” In India, multiple sources of insurgency and terrorism continued to affect various parts of the country, but the state’s capacity to WRITING FOR CTTA address its security concerns has been hampered by the very nature of its political system. Bangladesh, meanwhile, looks to Refer to the schedule for 2014 and submission guidelines be on unsteady ground after a wave of elections-related before pitching an article. Submissions on topics outside the violence and with a continuing threat from Islamist extremism. monthly issue themes are also welcome on a rolling basis for Though Sri Lanka has not seen a terrorist attack since 2009, its the CTTA website. progress towards reconciliation after the end of 26 years of civil war has been under intense scrutiny of the international ABOUT CTTA community. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis is a monthly publication East and Central Asia of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a specialist center of the S. Rajaratnam China continues to face a potent challenge from its restive School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Uighur minority and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. The Technological University (NTU), Singapore. five countries of Central Asia — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — remain The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors concerned by the NATO withdrawal in nearby Afghanistan and and do not reflect or represent the views of ICPVTR, RSIS, by returning foreign fighters from Syria. NTU or the organizations to which the authors are affiliated. Middle East and Africa Articles may not be reproduced without prior permission. Please contact the editors at [email protected] for more Syria continues to be in the midst of a protracted and violent information. civil war that looks to be intensifying even as a first round of Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis 3 Global Threat Assessment Rohan Gunaratna The year 2013 has been the most violent since the beginning of associate groups carry out a bulk of the attacks. Although the the contemporary wave of terrorism. Although Al Qaeda’s core death of Osama bin Laden demonstrated that any terrorist can has decreased in size, the group has become even more be hunted down, the death of the Al Qaeda founder did not influential. With its extraordinary presence on the web, reduce the growing threat. Al Qaeda is guiding its associates to fight back. With the western drawdown from Afghanistan in 2014, the Taliban-led The deadliest terrorist groups in the world belong to the terrorist sanctuary will likely be reconstituted once again, Al Qaeda family, with the Taliban (both Afghan and Pakistan threatening global stability and security. Taliban) leading the list. Others are the al-Nusra Front in Syria, Boko Haram in Nigeria, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and The threat of international and national terrorism is projected to al-Shabaab. Al Qaeda’s ability to influence associate groups grow in 2014. Half the countries in the world suffer from political was brought to international attention in the brutal attack on violence and ideological extremism, and terrorism will remain a Westgate Mall in Kenya by al-Shabaab, previously known as tier-one national security threat to the stability of most countries the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) of Somalia. in 2014. With the decentralization of the threat, Africa is emerging as a With Afghanistan and Syria emerging as the two most important new epicenter of terrorism and extremism. The "Arab Spring" hubs of global terrorism, the security of South Asia, the Levant has transformed into an Arab nightmare with multiple and the Sahel is threatened. Just as the anti-Soviet Al Qaeda-linked groups emerging throughout North Africa and multi-national Afghan mujahideen campaign formed the the Middle East. An Al Qaeda-associated al-Nusra Front has foundation of contemporary terrorism, the blowback from Syria emerged in Syria. With 12000 Sunni and a comparable number is likely to produce the next generation of fighters – both of Shia foreign fighters in Syria, the threat to the west and the guerrillas that attack government forces and terrorists that rest of the world will grow. attack civilians. Stemming from the developments in Syria, the Shia-Sunni Today, the conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are the conflict is threatening to break out into a regional conflict. most violent conflicts. After South Asia, the Middle East – Syria The Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah condemned the and Iraq – and Africa – Nigeria and Somalia – are the most detainment of al-Wefaq Secretary General Sheikh Ali Salman violent. Since 9/11, over a million combatants and non Ahmed Salman by Bahraini officials, and called on human rights combatants have been killed or injured, mostly Muslims organizations and others to make Bahrain take full by terrorists and US-led coalitions to fight insurrections and responsibility for any physical and psychological harm to which terrorist campaigns. he might be exposed. According to the SITE Monitoring Service, Ali Salman was detained on 28 December 2013, on According to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism charges of inciting for religious hatred, and was released one and Responses to Terrorism (START), Pakistan, Iraq and day later and banned from travel. Afghanistan – suffered more than half of 2012’s attacks (54%) and fatalities (58%). The next five most frequently targeted The terrorists mounted their year-end attack in Volgograd, countries were India, Nigeria, Somalia, Yemen and Thailand. southern Russia, hitting a railway station and trolleybus on 29 With increasing fatalities and casualties from 2012 to 2013, the and 30 December 2013. Aimed at sowing fear, Shumukh threat is projected to escalate in 2014. With US-led coalition al-Islam, a top forum for Al Qaeda-affiliated propaganda, withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014, the global threat of praised the timing of the attack. The SITE Monitoring Service terrorism is likely to grow even further. reported the terrorists saying Russians are not safe "since their country continues to supply arms to the malicious combatant Since 9/11, counter-insurgency and counterterrorism efforts regime of the doomed apostate Bashar." From the Caucuses, have had mixed results. Al Qaeda has weakened but the the terrorists are traveling through Turkey to Syria to fight Al Qaeda family has grown in strength, size and influence. against the Bashar al-Assad regime. About 30-40 threat groups in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and the Caucasus are emulating Al Qaeda’s ideology of global Since the epicenter of global terrorism shifted to Asia after violence and methodology of suicide attacks. While the core of September 11, 2001, the sub region of South Asia is most Al Qaeda led by Ayman al-Zawahiri has transformed from an violent. In India, ethno-political and left wing insurgencies and operational to an ideological and a training organization, the Islamist terrorism kill both Indians and foreigners. Volume 6, Issue 1 (January 2014) 4 Although Sri Lanka experienced no revival of terrorism since crash and then burst into flames. Two pedestrians were killed the Tamil Tigers were dismantled in May 2009, the terrorists are and 38 others were injured. The speech translated by SITE reorganizing themselves in Tamil Nadu in India.