Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis

Inside

‘Western Ways are Evil’: The Emergence and Evolution of - Ahmed S. Hashim, Gregoire Patte and Nathan Cohen

India-: Why Peace? - Antara Desai and Abdul Basit

Armed Forces Special Powers Act: A Call for Repeal - Mustafa Haji

Regional Realities Extinguish Probability: Will Hezbollah Launch a Chemical Weapons Attack on Israel? - Patrick Blannin

Volume 4: Issue 7, July 2012

2 ‘Western Ways Are Evil’: The Emergence and Evolution of Boko Haram

By Ahmed S. Hashim, Gregoire Patte and Nathan Cohen

This paper provides an overview of the historical and cultural environment that has allowed the militant jihadist group Boko Haram to flourish. It examines the strategy that the Nigerian government has adopted and the challenges it faces to restore peace. Nigeria is a country on edge. Its rampant political In 2010, Nigeria celebrated 50 years as an inde- corruption, inefficient use of resources, provincial pendent state. For Nigerians, this milestone of- rivalries and profound ethno-sectarian schisms— fered an opportunity to reflect on the country’s especially between the predominantly Christian successes and shortcomings. On the positive south and predominantly Muslim north—have side, over the last half-century, Nigeria has be- placed Nigeria in the headlines for all the wrong come one of Africa’s three giants along with reasons. From these grounds, Boko Haram, a Egypt and South Africa, thereby gaining consid- radical Islamist organization, has emerged. Its erable clout on the regional and global arenas. It attacks, which primarily though not exclusively is Africa’s largest oil producer and recent finds target the Nigerian state and the north’s Chris- ensure Nigeria’s significance in the energy mar- tians, have resulted in excess of 1,000 deaths in ket for the foreseeable future. With a population the past two years alone. This paper will trace the in excess of 170 million people, Nigeria is home origins and evolution of Boko Haram from its in- to Africa’s largest population, thus providing an ception to the present. ample labor force.

Fighters of the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) on September 17, 2008. Photo Credit: Militaryphotos.net. http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?142214-Today-s-Pics!-Wednesday-September-17th-2008/ page2

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Political Context The country is no stranger to ethno-sectarian violence and secessionist movements. One of The population boom, however, is a double- the most brutal and deadly civil wars in Africa – edged sword for a still developing Nigeria. An the Biafran War — took place in Nigeria be- inability or an unwillingness to distribute eco- tween 1967-1970 when the Igbo people in the nomic resources and development programs south-western part of the country established a equitably may cause unrest. Moreover, rapid secessionist republic of Biafra. The Nigerian population growth can put enormous stress on a government crushed the incipient Biafran state developing country’s infrastructure. The UN pre- and reintegrated its people but only after the dicts that Nigeria’s population will exceed 400 deaths of tens of thousands of people. In the oil- million by 2050; such explosive growth will inevi- producing Niger Delta, the secessionist Move- tably strain government resources. ment for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) emerged. Its leaders accused the Fed- Furthermore, though democratic, Nigeria still eral Government in the capital Abuja of conniv- suffers from high rates of corruption and crony- ing with foreign oil corporations to deprive the ism within the political system. Both federal and impoverished region of its rightful share of the oil state governments are under-resourced and wealth. Niger Delta inhabitants complained of often lack sufficient numbers of personnel, ade- corruption, poverty, inequality and a lack of de- quate budgets, or financial oversight. Unsurpris- velopment. During the unrest in 2008 alone, ingly, Nigerians throughout the country (and par- over 1,000 people were killed and nearly 300 ticularly in the North) have suffered from what others were taken hostage. The cumulative cost they perceive to be discrimination in the provi- of the conflict, either through pipeline sabotage sion of resources and basic infrastructure. or oil theft, is estimated to be roughly USD 24

Map showing ethnic groups of Nigeria. Source: Ulrich Lamm, Africa Security Brief, Africa Centre for Strategic Studies 14 (July 2011) http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/Africa-Security-Brief/ASB-14.pdf

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billion. In 2009, the Nigerian government offered received financial support from oil-rich Arab a comprehensive amnesty program, replete with countries for the promotion of Islam. an unconditional pardon, cash, and vocational training. Though 26,000 fighters have accepted These mainstream political religious forces of the program, with a majority pursuing the educa- Islam are entirely distinct from the rise of a mili- tional opportunities offered, tension in the Niger tant and extremist strain of Islam that has risen Delta remains. It remains unclear whether the in recent decades. Indeed the Muslim northern federal government resolved the conflict out of a elite, which include the current Caliph of Sokoto genuine desire for peace, or out of necessity for who claims to be a direct descendent of Uthman access to the oil resources. dan Fodio, are viewed negatively by radical Islamist forces of which Boko Haram is only the Historical and Political Background to the latest and deadliest manifestation. Worsening Emergence of Boko Haram socio-economic conditions and mounting ten- sions between Christians and Muslims fueled Currently, the most pressing problem in Nigeria the popularity of radical Islam. Despite the na- is an ethnic and sectarian divide between the tional problems discussed earlier, the south con- north and south of the country. Nigeria’s popula- tinues to boom as the north falls ever more be- tion is split almost equally between Christians hind; nearly three-quarters of northerners live on (40%) and Muslims (50%). Northern Nigeria has less than USD 200 a year, far below the poverty been a stronghold of Islam since the 11th cen- line. The few government programs designed to tury when Arab traders introduced Islam to the assist the region are marred by inefficiency and Kanuri, Hausa and Fulani peoples. In the late corruption. 18th and early 19th centuries, Islam became a major political force. In 1810, Uthman dan Fo- Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan is a dio, a mallam or Islamic teacher, established the Christian and widely disliked by the Muslim Caliphate of Sokoto in present-day northwestern north. Northerners perceive him as unrespon- Nigeria through a prudent use of charisma and sive to their needs and prone to adopt hard-line ruthlessness. His self-styled jihad against the and violent strategies to solve the lack of law previous rulers serves as an inspiration to Boko and order in the north. Demographic changes Haram till this day. When the British colonized have exacerbated these tensions. Increasingly, Nigeria, they allowed the northerners, whom Christians from the south are migrating north- they viewed as more ‘advanced’ culturally, more wards. In the city of Kano, southerners, particu- autonomy and Islam continued to dominate po- larly Ibos, began to threaten economic interests litical and social life. This stood in sharp contrast of the Hausa commercial class. In Jos, a city to British rule in the south. that lies on the Muslim-Christian fault-line, Mus- lim settlers have encroached into traditionally When Nigeria obtained independence from Brit- Christian areas. Rivalries between the Christian ain in 1960, some northern politicians consid- Berom tribe and the Muslim Hausa and Fulani ered using Islam as a rallying point for entry into settlers over farmland and local chieftaincy titles the political process in the former capital of La- culminated in major incidents of mutual blood- gos. This proved unnecessary when Nigeria’s letting in 2010. nascent democracy collapsed and the northern dominated military took over. Islam flourished in These structural problems have caused the un- both the cultural and educational contexts as fortunate but unsurprising rise of vigilante northern elites and politicians deepened their groups that claim to protect populations from a relationships with the wider Islamic world and variety of depravations. One such group is Boko

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Haram, which claims to act in the interests of of the security services while it organized itself. Muslim northerners. In Hausa, the main lan- It began to arm itself, prompting warnings from guage of the north, Boko Haram means literally security officials that something was amiss in “(Western) Book is Forbidden.” Though outsid- the north. In 2004, this small sect clashed with ers gave this name to the organization, it accu- security forces in a series of bloody riots. These rately summarizes the group’s political agenda, riots failed to awaken the government to the which decries Western ways in education, cul- gravity of the situation. However, things had ture and science as sinful. Indeed the ideologi- changed five years later. By 2009, the small cal goal of Boko Haram is to establish an Islamic group had expanded considerably and launched state that implements a strict interpretation of attacks against police in the city of Bauchi. Po- Shari’a or Islamic law throughout the entirety of lice retaliation and tit-for-tat attacks followed and the Nigerian state. (Currently, Sharia is techni- claimed over 700 lives. Mohammad Yusuf and cally applied in the 12 northern states, however some of his key followers were killed, likely in an Boko Haram does not accept the validity of extra-judicial way. Yusuf’s death, far from weak- these local governments.) ening the movement allowed it to metastasize. After a wave of attacks on banks and prisons in Jamiat Ahlus-Sunna lil-dawati wal Jihad, Boko late 2010, a vengeful and revitalized Boko Haram’s actual name, first appeared in 2002 in Haram murdered politicians and poll workers in the north-eastern city of Maiduguri, located the run-up to the presidential elections in March close to the Chadian border. Mohammad Yusuf, and April 2011. In August 2011, it conducted its the group’s founder, expressed disgust with first suicide attack when it targeted the UN of- secular and ‘godless’ nature of Nigerian society. fices in Abuja. The sect initially wished to stay under the radar

Nigeria’s first suicide attack on Police Head-Quarters on 16 June 2011. Photo Credit: SaharaReporters, New York. http://saharareporters.com/news-page/police-hq-bomb-blast-nigerian-police-blames-boko-haram-0

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Boko Haram’s increased potency has govern- forces and police have near absolute jurisdiction ments, not only the Nigerian government, in the north and can conduct large-scale opera- scrambling to understand the group. While ini- tions with impunity. The brutality of some ele- tially a solely Nigerian problem, Boko Haram ments in the security forces, particularly the JTF, likely maintains transnational links with like- have embittered locals who in some cases fear minded Islamist groups across Africa. Reports of the JTF more than Boko Haram. President dozens of Boko Haram members assisting the Jonathan has already designated an astonishing Tuareg Islamist group Ansar Dine in the Malian twenty percent of the federal budget on security city of Gao surfaced in April 2012. General this year. Attempts at negotiation ended prema- Carter Ham, the head of the ’ Af- turely in March 2012 when Boko Haram backed rica Command, has repeatedly warned of Boko out. Several commentators, including the pri- Haram’s cooperation with Al Qaeda in the Is- mary negotiator Datti Ahmed, blamed the gov- lamic Maghreb (AQIM). Some of the tactics, ernment for lacking sincerity during the negotia- weapons and equipment captured from Boko tions. Haram suggest links with well-established mili- tant groups. AQIM leader Abu Musab Abdel The Jonathan administration has recently an- Wadoud, also known as Abdelmalek Droukdel, nounced a new strategy to combat Boko Haram. has openly stated his group’s willingness to President Jonathan replaced his Defense Minis- equip and support Boko Haram. Nigeria’s gov- ter and National Security Advisor in June 2012 ernment, keen to win support as a front-line ally and declared that “the solution lies in stronger in the West’s “global ,” has encour- laws, fear of God, transparency and accountabil- aged these perceptions. ity.” These gestures are moves in the right direc- tion but similar reshufflings and platitudes have The Response of the Nigerian Federal Gov- occurred before with little consequence. Boko ernment Haram is not only a menace in and of itself, but it is a manifestation of the deeper ills that afflict The Nigerian military and security forces are no Nigeria. Whether President Jonathan can affect strangers to domestic chaos and lawlessness. these underlying structural problems remains to Despite the recent success scored by a Nigerian be seen. Joint Task Force (JTF) unit that arrested senior Boko Haram operational commander Suleiman Mohammad in May 2012, the track record in resolving these internal problems has not been robust. Though Nigeria won the Biafra War, the lessons of counter-insurgency were not institu- For the latest re- tionalized or internalized. The armed forces ports and maintained an identity of a typical conventional commentaries on army. When the Nigerian Chief of the Army terrorism and po- Staff, Lt. General Azubuike Ihejirika, organized a litical violence, defence conference, it concluded that the armed please visit forces were not equipped or trained to handle www.pvtr.org this hybrid terror insurgent threat.

Goodluck Jonathan’s adoption of a hard-line approach devoid of political sophistication threatens to worsen the situation. The armed

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012 7 India–Pakistan: Why Peace? By Antara Desai and Abdul Basit

This article highlights the hindrances in the India-Pakistan peace process and emphasizes the need for cooperation between the two countries in view of the emerging geopolitical and economic changes in the South Asian region.

In 2009, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza effect across the border, creating instability in the Gilani and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan entire region. However, despite various Confi- Singh issued a joint statement to the effect that dence Building Measures (CBMs) and bilateral from then on, terrorism would be separated from negotiations, peace remains an elusive dream the composite dialogue which had started in 2004 between the two countries. between India and Pakistan under the leadership of President Musharraf and Prime Minister Va- Though in the past, CBMs have often been initi- jpayee. The dialogue was an initiative to resolve ated by both sides, these measures have been all outstanding issues between the two countries sporadic and have not yielded the expected re- and while the talks in 2004 did not yield any sub- sults primarily because whenever a terrorist at- stantial results, they were considered a start to tack or similar incident occurs, the entire process the peace process. gets derailed. This was the context against which Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar Resumption of talks between the two countries in called the India-Pakistan relationship one of ‘lost 2009 was considered a major milestone for the opportunities’ at the “Aman ki Asha” Indo-Pak relations between the two countries, given the Economic Conference in Lahore in May 2012. increase in animosity in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks in November 2008. This was Cooperation and Conflict in India–Pakistan followed by the composite dialogues in 2010 with Relationship a view to resolve issues that have strained the relationship between India and Pakistan over the An example of cooperation on non-security mat- years. ters was the 1960 water sharing agreement be- tween the two countries namely the Indus Water Since independence from British rule and parti- Treaty. It is interesting to note that despite the tion of the Indian sub–continent, India and Paki- wars and conflicts that followed the treaty, for the stan have fought three major wars (1948, 1965 most part it has been successful in achieving its and 1971 wars) and have faced several situa- purpose. tions of crisis and conflict. The enduring Indo-Pak rivalry has had negative implications not only for The 1965 Rann of Kutch Agreement was another the two neighbouring countries but for the whole example of such cooperation. This region shares South Asian region. a border with the Southern part of Sindh which is situated in Pakistan. Rival claims over the terri- In the present environment, the South Asian geo- tory led to a limited war in April 1965 leading to political and geo-economic realities demand a the signing of this agreement which has been certain level of cooperation between two hostile followed by both parties till date. countries. The different levels of challenges that exist in the international system cannot be re- After yet another war in September 1965 in solved by one country alone. Any turmoil or crisis Jammu & Kashmir, India and Pakistan signed the erupting in one country would have a spill-over Tashkent agreement in 1966. The Indian empha-

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012 India–Pakistan: Why Peace? 8 sis at this time was more on resolving the territo- has taken place since then. Similarly, the agree- rial disputes between the two countries. In 1971, ment signed in 1992 calls for prohibition of a civil war broke out in Pakistan with East Paki- chemical weapons. At the time of signing the stan demanding a separate state. India was mili- agreement, both parties had stated that they did tarily involved in the conflict which ended with not possess chemical weapons. Again in 1997, creation of Bangladesh and signing of the Simla Pakistan proposed signing of a mutual agree- Agreement of 1972. It was under this agreement ment for non-aggression relating to nuclear that both countries decided that third party inter- weapons, however, this too proved to be insig- vention would be avoided and the issues be- nificant in context of the nuclear weapon pro- tween them would be resolved bilaterally. grammes which both the countries continued to develop resulting in nuclear tests in 1998. Pakistan believes that the Simla agreement was more of an immediate remedy, since a quick fix When the came to power was needed to avoid further chaos and instabil- in India in 1998, it was believed that the rela- ity, than a long term commitment between the tions between India and Pakistan would be fur- two countries. At the time, Pakistan was bar- ther strained due to their perceived leaning to- gaining from a position of weakness as it had wards Hindu nationalist discourse. However, this lost the Eastern part of its territory. In 1988, both period proved to be very positive in bilateral re- the countries entered an agreement regarding lations between India and Pakistan. their nuclear infrastructure and to exercise re- frain from attacking the adversary’s nuclear fa- The Lahore Declaration was signed on 21 Feb- cilities. However, to what extent this has been ruary 1999. The Declaration highlighted the successful is difficult to judge as no major war need for both countries to avoid confrontation in

In July 2011, Foreign Ministers of India and Pakistan met for the first time after the November 2008 Mumbai attacks in a bid to restart the peace process. Photo Credit: The Raw Story http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/07/27/india-pakistan-top-diplomats-hold-peace-talks/

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view of the nuclear dimension in their relation- Proxy Wars ship. It also emphasized a commitment to inten- sify the composite dialogue between them. How- The problem of terrorism and proxy war contin- ever, the Kargil crisis which began in May 1999 ues to be a hindrance for both countries. For once again led to a complete breakdown of the instance, New Delhi has been blaming Pakistan peace dialogue and resulted in renewed trust for sponsoring or supporting groups to carry out deficit. This crisis erupted due to infiltration by attacks not only in Jammu & Kashmir but all Pakistani backed militants into the Kargil district over India. This became more contentious espe- of Jammu and Kashmir. cially after the November 2008 Mumbai attacks. At the same time, Pakistan blames India for pro- The Agra Summit which took place on 15 and viding assistance to the Baloch separatists 16 July 2001 was another failure primarily be- through . Pakistan views the estab- cause of the focus on the issue of Jammu and lishment of more than fourteen Indian consu- Kashmir. A settlement could not be reached and lates in Afghanistan in this perspective. other issues took a back seat while the territorial dispute loomed large on the minds of the deci- Kashmir Dispute sion makers. The border issue of Jammu and Kashmir has The next phase of negotiations and peace build- remained unresolved since the creation of Paki- ing began after the 2001 attack on the Indian stan. Unfortunately, whenever the peace dia- Parliament. The nuclear angle in the India Paki- logue is initiated between the two countries, stan relationship became a risk factor for the other issues take a back seat to this territorial region and the world. Moreover, due to the US dispute. The underlying political motivations war in Afghanistan against the and Al have ensured that this issue is constantly high- Qaeda, any escalation of hostility between India lighted making it difficult to negotiate or find a and Pakistan was viewed with alarm. lasting solution for peace.

The meeting held by the South Asian Associa- China Factor tion for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 2004 paved the way for a composite dialogue be- Indian belief that Pakistan is giving control to tween India and Pakistan but this did not show China in the Gilgit Baltistan area is another is- much result in terms of confidence building or sue that hinders the peace between India and bridging the gaps caused by history. Pakistan. The construction of the Gwadar port and other infrastructure by China has caused It is evident therefore that in the past, there has further concerns for India. been no substantial progress in terms of estab- lishing sustainable peace between the two arch India’s involvement in Afghanistan foes. The efforts from both sides have been spo- radic and any irritant that comes in the way India’s involvement in Afghanistan and the trilat- leads to a complete breakdown of communica- eral dialogue between India, United States and tion and trust. Some of the major irritants have Afghanistan is not viewed positively by Pakistan. been: This is especially in context of Pakistan’s declin-  Proxy Wars ing ties with the US. In addition, Pakistan is also  Kashmir Dispute apprehensive about India’s presence in Afghani-  China factor stan as it will be at the cost of its own strategic  India’s involvement in Afghanistan influence there.

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Why the Current Composite Dialogue is Dif- tures become essential. This will require both ferent from the Previous Peace Overtures? India and Pakistan to mend their fences.

In the changing geopolitical and geo-strategic From New Delhi’s perspective, mending fences environment of the South Asia region, one factor with Pakistan is important particularly at a time which compels both India and Pakistan to coop- when India is vying for permanent membership erate with each other is the approaching end of Security Council (UNSC). game in Afghanistan. Despite relentless efforts Therefore, India’s softened, rather well calcu- of US-led NATO/ISAF forces stretched over a lated, policies towards Jammu and Kashmir and decade, Afghanistan’s unpredictable governing extension of an olive branch to Pakistan for re- structures, volatile security landscape, defunct initiating the composite dialogue speaks volume and corrupt political system, fractured economy of underlying Indian intent to cultivate cordial with booming opium crops and resilient Taliban relations with its South Asian neighbours, espe- insurgent groups point to a bleak picture. cially Pakistan.

In such a situation, the draw down, in July 2011, Another compelling factor is the common threat and ultimate withdrawal by 2014, of US forces of militancy and extremism. Militancy and terror- from Afghanistan will have far reaching conse- ism is a regional problem and warrants region- quences for regional countries. An unstable Af- ally coordinated approaches to overcome this ghanistan — where India and Pakistan have menace. In the context that Pakistan itself is high stakes — is in nobody’s favour. To avoid a bearing the major brunt of terrorism, repeated volatile post-US Afghanistan with an uncertain allegations and demonization of Pakistan will future, joint approaches within regional struc- only isolate the country; thus further weakening

In May 2012, trade delegations of India and Pakistan meet under the Aman Ki Asha platform, a joint initiative of Pakistan’s Geo-Jang Media Group and Times of India, and urge the respective governments of both countries to realize potential of trade and commerce. Photo Credit: Aman Ki Asha http://www.amankiasha.com/news_cat.asp?id=147&catId=8&spId=0&page=2

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its already fragile economy and fractured social fabric which in turn will strengthen the hands of peace spoilers and terrorists.

It has therefore become important to adopt a functional approach in the India-Pakistan peace process. The issues of conflict and cooperation need to be compartmentalized in a manner that GLOBAL PATHFINDER political issues, territorial disputes and terrorism do not always take the limelight. Instead, a focus The ICPVTR Terrorism Data- should be made on issues of trade and com- base – Global Pathfinder - is a merce. Even in the case of conflict, channels of one-stop repository for infor- communication with regard to economy should mation on the current and be kept open. Therefore, ensuring that there is emerging terrorist threats. The no overlap of issues becomes a necessary com- database focuses on terrorism ponent of the peace building process. and political violence in the Asia-Pacific region – compris- Conclusion ing of Southeast Asia, North Asia, South Asia, Central Asia India and Pakistan need to make the peace and Oceania. process more meaningful and sustainable by utilizing multiple channels of interaction like en- Global Pathfinder is an inte- hanced trade cooperation, dialogue on all fo- grated database containing rums, state to civil society as well as people to comprehensive profiles of ter- people contacts. Mutual cooperation and a posi- rorist groups, key terrorist per- tive outlook by both India and Pakistan coupled sonalities, terrorist and counter with a will and intent on both sides to sustain the -terrorist incidents as well as peace process leading to conclusive outcomes terrorist training camps. It also would serve the interests of the entire region. contains specific details and analyses of significant terrorist attacks in the form of terrorist attack profiles.

For further inquiries regarding subscription and access to the Global Pathfinder database, please email Ms. Elena Ho Wei Ling at the following email address: [email protected]

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012 12 Armed Forces Special Powers Act: A Call for Repeal

By Mustafa Haji

This article focuses on the impact of Armed Forces Special Powers Act on various states and analyzes whether it is necessary today.

The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), in late 1950s were rampant. The Naga insurgents 1958, was introduced in India as an emergency were indulging in arson, murder and loot. Deploy- measure for one year in 1958 to deal with the ment of the forces was therefore considered nec- Naga insurgency in the North Eastern part of In- essary. Also, militancy in Kashmir was at the dia. The Act comprises of provisions which give peak in the late 1980s with rampant infiltration protection to the armed forces to carry out opera- from the neighboring countries. Therefore, the tions in the concerned states. Since 1958, it has AFSPA was extended and implemented in the been used in all conflict-prone areas wherever state of Jammu and Kashmir in 1990. This article the army was deployed. focuses on the impact of AFSPA on various states and analyzes whether AFSPA is neces- The Act was implemented in the North Eastern sary today. part (which includes the states of Mizoram, Na- galand, , and Sikkim) and Jammu and The AFSPA endows the armed forces with spe- Kashmir. In the North East of India, the tensions cial powers and immunity which was considered

Protest marches against AFSPA in Jammu & Kashmir led by Mehbooba Mufti, President of Peoples Democ- ratic Party of Kashmir. Photo Credit (Left): Human Rights Watch http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/10/19/india-repeal- armed-forces-special-powers-act Photo Credit (Above):Northeast Today http://www.northeasttoday.in/our-states/manipur/human -rights-groups-in-manipur-set-to-strengthen-anti-afspa- stand/

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necessary to deal with militancy and insurgency could be interrogated till the officers deem fit to effectively. However, over the years, this Act release the person. has led to concerns about human rights violation by the security forces calling for demands for the From a human rights perspective, these sec- repeal of the Act. The AFSPA has been criti- tions are in contravention to the right to life and cized for carrying various ambiguous provisions right to freedom of liberty which is envisaged by and thus giving arbitrary powers to the armed the Constitution of India. According to Article 22 forces. For example, Section 4 of the AFSPA of the Constitution of India, if a person is de- states that “any commissioned officer, warrant tained, then the same should be produced be- officer, non-commissioned officer or any other fore a judicial magistrate within 24 hours of the person of equivalent rank may, in a disturbed detention. This right is fundamental which the area use force to the extent of even causing Constitution of India guarantees to every citizen. death of a person who refuses to follow an order The above mentioned provisions of the AFSPA or law made prohibiting the assembly of five or clearly are in negation of the provisions of the more persons, or the carrying of arms, after Constitution. There have been many instances such “warning as he may consider necessary”, when people have not been put through estab- for the maintenance of public order.” lished judicial procedures. There are also in- stances of forced abductions and disappear- In addition, the Act gives powers to the army to ances. The scope of intervention from the nor- detain any person who is suspected of any mal judicial process is also very limited as the unlawful activity. The person detained could be armed forces enjoy immunity against prosecu- taken into custody without any warrant and tion under the provisions of the AFSPA.

Tensions between the army and the people of Jammu & Kashmir reached its climax, in 2010, leading to women, children and youth retaliating by throwing stones. Photo Credit: Agence France-Presse http://www.hindu.com/2010/07/31/stories/2010073158510100.htm

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Additionally, India is a signatory to many interna- dural laws. Also, at the same time certain or- tional conventions. One such covenant is the ganizations, advocacy groups and concerned International Covenant on Civil and Political states have been demanding for the repeal of Rights. Article 2(3) of the International Covenant the AFSPA. The government had promised to on Civil and Political Rights makes it obligatory repeal the same, however, no outcome has for all member nations to provide for remedies come so far. for violations of rights, even if they are carried out by people acting in official capacities. Fur- It has been repeatedly stated by various courts thermore, Article 9 of Universal Declaration of and committees and by the Law Commission of Human Rights states that, “No one shall be sub- India that India no longer requires a law such as jected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile”. It is the AFSPA. India has a robust criminal proce- in these contexts that certain provisions of the dure and a penal code which cover the gamut of AFSPA have attracted international opprobrium crime and punishments. There are provisions in particularly when human rights violations are the Constitution regarding exercising Emer- implicated. gency Rule and the various situations under which army can be deputed and given extraordi- There have been many instances when the nary powers. Article 356 of the Indian Constitu- United Nations (UN) has suggested to the Indian tion is an example of the emergency provisions government for the repeal of AFSPA. For exam- under the Indian Constitution which provides for ple, Christof Heyns, UN Special Envoy, on a guidelines under which Emergency rule should visit to Kashmir on 31 March 2012 stated that be imposed in a state. the AFSPA violates International law and that it has no place in democracy. Moreover, when the It is imperative to understand here that the situa- Act was being enacted for the first time in 1957, tion in Jammu & Kashmir and the North East there were lots of criticisms in the parliament has been ameliorating for a long time. In the about the provisions of the Act. The collective case of Jammu & Kashmir, there has not been criticism is best summarized by Laishram Achaw much unrest after the violent protests in early Singh, Member of Parliament from Inner Ma- 2010, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of peo- nipur Parliamentary Constituency, in his com- ple. The Kashmir valley was under curfew for ment made in 1957. “This is a lawless law. half of the year, crippling economic and social There are various provisions in the Indian Penal activities in the state. The situation after 2010 Code and in the Criminal Procedure Code and has been improving and normalcy is returning to they can easily deal with the law and order the state through an increase in tourism and situation in these parts.” Nonetheless, the Act resumption of business activities as well as edu- was implemented. cational institutions in the Kashmir valley. The North East has been experiencing similar im- Over the years, a number of committees have provements in their daily lives. been constituted to review the Act. In 2005, the Jeevan Reddy Committee recommended that At this point, given the shift towards normalcy, “the AFSPA is too sketchy, too bald and quite there is no requirement for such an extraordi- inadequate in several particular aspects and nary law to be in force. Therefore, the AFSPA therefore it should be repealed or amended at should be revoked from these places. This will the least.” It has been recommended to the Gov- assuage the local sentiments and will help build ernment of India by the committee that the AF- permanent peace by winning the trust of the SPA could be replaced by an Act which is on local people. In the meantime, it is necessary to par with the criminal laws of India or the proce- explore an alternative for the AFSPA. The alter-

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native should be such that will balance the need for the special powers for the security services EDITORIAL STAFF with the demands for protection of civil rights and liberties of the citizens. Editor Dr. Arabinda Acharya

Associate Editors Uday Ravi Nadisha Sirisena

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The CTTA: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis is now open for contributions from researchers and practitioners in the field of terrorism research, security, and other related fields.

Topical areas of interest are terrorism and political violence, organized crime, homeland security, religion and violence, internal conflicts and all other areas of security broadly defined.

Article length could be anywhere between 1,000 to 2,000 words. Submissions must be made before the 15th of every month for editing purposes and for inclu- sion in the next month’s edition. Please refer to the guidelines.

Electronic copies of the articles (MS Word format) may be submitted to the Asso- ciate Editor, Uday Ravi at the following address: [email protected]

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012 16 Regional Realities Extinguish Probability: Will Hezbollah Launch a Chemical Weapons Attack on Israel?

By Patrick Blannin

This paper examines Hezbollah’s chemical weapons capability and its impact on regional security.

The deteriorating situation in Syria has been a (2009), along with Israeli government and intelli- matter of international concern, not the least for gence agencies have previously reported that Israel. This is due to the possibility of chemical Hezbollah was keeping CW in arms stockpiles in weapons falling into the hands of entities such as southern Lebanon. In one instance, three out of Hezbollah which are hostile to the Jewish state. the eight Hezbollah operatives who were killed in While the presence of chemical weapons (CW) in the blast died after coming in contact with the Lebanon is still uncertain, defence sources claim chemicals. However, Lebanese Army personnel that Syria has already moved CW capable Scud as well as United Nations Interim Force in Leba- missiles to Hezbollah camps in Lebanon and non (UNIFIL) forces were denied access to the erected advanced surface-to-air missiles in the blast site in order to cover up any evidence. Is- Lebanese mountains. raeli defence sources claim that Syria has al- ready moved Scud missiles to Hezbollah camps Evidence Supporting the Chemical Weapons in Lebanon and erected advanced surface-to-air Threat Scenario missiles in the Lebanese mountains. Any sce- nario in which Hezbollah or any other non-state While the presence of CW in Lebanon is still un- actor had CW capability, the balance of deter- certain, Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Siyasa rence between Israel and its regional adversaries

A map demonstrating key Syrian chemical weapons production and storage facilities and its proximity to Israel. Photo Credit: Nuclear Threat Initiative http://www.nti.org/gmap/?country=syria&layers=biological,chemical,missile,nuclear

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012 Regional Realities Extinguish Probability 17

would shift dramatically. tween the various Lebanese parliamentary blocks that effectively stalled in November 2010 According to Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh, Israeli Dep- concerning primarily Hezbollah’s weapons and uty military chief, Syria has the largest CW what role, legitimate or otherwise, the Hezbol- stocks in the world with missiles and rockets that lah’s arsenal plays in Lebanese security. can reach any point in Israel. He added that if Syria had the chance, it would “treat us the Hezbollah’s Chemical Weapons Capability same way it treats its own people.” It is in this context that on 12 June 2012 the Netanyahu Syria has successfully tested delivery systems government announced that it was going to for its chemical warheads, namely Scud B-C-D mass distribute gas masks to protect its popula- class missiles. Hezbollah has acknowledged tion against biological and chemical weaponry. that the Scud missile is a major component of its Israel’s Hayom daily (12 June 2012) quoted a arsenal following the war in 2006. Given that senior Israeli Defence official who warned that Syria and Hezbollah’s military hardware are “the transference of chemical weaponry to Leba- strategically linked, they have one of the largest non would be tantamount to a declaration of war ballistic missile arsenals in the region, made up by the Lebanese government” and “that Israel of hundreds of Scud-derived missile systems. would act to prevent such a move”. Israeli intelligence warns that the transfer of un- The current speculation and belligerent rhetoric conventional weapons to Hezbollah commenced comes at a time of renewed internal Lebanese following the 2006 conflict with Israel. However, National Dialogue. The National Dialogue facili- the weapons remain in Syrian territory to pre- tates the resumption of formal discussions be- vent their destruction in an Israeli strike. In the

Circular Missile Range Error Prob- able (CEP)

Fateh 110 250 km 100 m or M-600

Scud B 300 km 900 m

Scud C 550-600 km 900 m

Scud D 600-700 km 50 m

This map demonstrates the maxi- mum missile ranges determined from the border of southern Leba- non. It also includes projected mis- sile ranges from South Bequa’a Valley (dotted circles).

Photo Credit: Critical Threats http://www.criticalthreats.org/ lebanon/hezbollah-potential-missile -ranges-map

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012 Regional Realities Extinguish Probability 18

event that Hezbollah relocates its Scud D mis- VX is highly unstable and thus only an organisa- siles and other advanced weapons, out of undis- tion with a high technical capability would be closed storage facilities in Syria and transfers able to handle the weaponization process. If them across the border to Lebanon, Israel would Hezbollah possesses this technical ability be forced to act on its promise and destroy Hez- among its ranks, then this would add credibility bollah’s Scuds. Hezbollah is rumoured to keep to the current threat scenario espoused by the its most advanced hardware in the Syrian Al Israelis. Hame and Al Zabadani military bases near Da- mascus. The most intense fighting between Syr- Hezbollah was implicated in a series of events in ian opposition groups and pro-Assad forces has Thailand, India, Azerbaijan and Georgia in 2012. occurred in areas corresponding to Syria’s In this year, some individuals associated with weapons storage facilities (Aleppo, Homs, Hezbollah were arrested and persecuted in the Hama and Latakia). Hence, securing Assad re- US. On 21 March 2012, the Republican Chair- gime’s military assets has become a priority for man of the House Homeland Security Commit- Iran and Hezbollah. This situation prompted Te- tee, Peter King, said “the Iranian-backed Leba- hran and Hezbollah to come up with a new strat- nese group Hezbollah may have hundreds of egy to facilitate relocation of these weapons. operatives based in the United States”, adding Israeli Defence Force officials believe that vari- that “Hezbollah, and not Al Qaeda, poses the ous jihadist groups — such as Hamas, Islamic greatest terrorist threat to Americans”. Iran re- Jihad and others — may attempt to divert Is- quires that Hezbollah maintain an effective pres- rael’s attention from Hezbollah and its arsenal ence in the region especially with the uncertainty by instigating conflicts on Israel’s western and facing its operational ally Syria. With officials southern fronts. claiming that a pre-emptive strike on Iran will unleash a barrage onto Israel’s northern border A CW attack on one of Israel’s major population coupled with Nasrallah’s insistence that Tel Aviv centres would be catastrophic. The densely is within rocket range, the outcome of renewed populated areas of Tel Aviv, Haifa or the Galilee IAEA negotiations which commenced in May would be priority targets for such an attack and 2012 has intensified the focus on Hezbollah’s within range of Hezbollah’s current missile capa- intentions. Israel is concerned with the escalat- bility. According to the reports of Council on For- ing regional dynamics and a plausible threat eign Relations (2006) and DEBKAfile (2012), from CW attack in which Hezbollah would be a Syria has produced, tested and continues to likely perpetrator. store VX nerve agents which is the deadliest nerve agent ever created. A fraction of a drop of VX, absorbed through the skin, can fatally dis- rupt the nervous system. Although an antidote is available, the chemical is absorbed so rapidly that unless victims received immediate medical attention, the casualty rate would be extremely high. Sources claim that Saddam Hussein used VX against Iran during the Iran- War. He also used chemical weapons on Iraqi Kurds at Halabja in 1988, which resulted in the deaths of 5,000 people. Additionally, thousands more were left with horrific medical side-effects.

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012 19

The International Centre for Political Violence and Ter- rorism Research (ICPVTR) is a specialist centre within the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

ICPVTR conducts research, training, and outreach pro- grams aimed at reducing the threat of politically moti- vated violence and at mitigating its effects on the inter- national system. The Centre seeks to integrate aca- demic theory with practical knowledge, which is essen- Nanyang Technological University tial for a complete and comprehensive understanding of threats from politically-motivated groups. Block S4, Level B4, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798 The Centre is staffed by academic specialists, religious scholars, as well as personnel from the law enforce- Phone: +65 6316 8925 ment, military and intelligence agencies, among others. Fax: +65 6791 1941 The Centre is culturally and linguistically diverse, com- prising of functional and regional analysts as well as Website: www.pvtr.org Muslim religious scholars from Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and North America.

Events and Publications

 Terrorist Rehabilitation: For upcoming events The US Experience in Iraq (CRC Press Taylor and at ICPVTR, visit Francis Group, 2011) by www.pvtr.org Dr. Ami Angell and Dr. Rohan Gunaratna

 Ethnic Identity and National  Pakistan: Terrorism Ground Conflict in China Zero (Reaktion Books, 2011) (Palgrave Macmillan 22 June by Dr. Rohan Gunaratna and 2010) by Dr. Rohan Guna- Mr. Khurram Iqbal ratna, Dr. Arabinda Acharya and Mr. Wang Pengxin

 International Aviation and  Targeting Terrorist Financing: Terrorism: Evolving Threats, International Cooperation Evolving Security and New Regimes (Routledge 2009) (Routledge 2009) by Dr. Ara- by Dr. John Harrison binda Acharya

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, Vol. 4, Iss. 7, 2012