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Carnage Interrupted: an Analysis of Fifteen Terrorist Plots Against Public Surface Transportation

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Carnage Interrupted: an Analysis of Fifteen Terrorist Plots Against Public Surface Transportation MTI Carnage Interrupted: Plots An Analysis Against Fifteen of Public Surface Terrorist Transportation Carnage Interrupted: An Analysis of Fifteen Terrorist Plots Against Funded by U.S. Department of Transportation and California Department of Transportation Public Surface Transportation MTI ReportMTI 11-20 MTI Report 11-20 April 2012 MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE MTI FOUNDER Hon. Norman Y. Mineta The Norman Y. Mineta International Institute for Surface Transportation Policy Studies was established by Congress in the MTI BOARD OF TRUSTEES Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). The Institute’s Board of Trustees revised the name to Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) in 1996. Reauthorized in 1998, MTI was selected by the U.S. Department of Transportation Honorary Chairman Joseph Boardman (Ex-Officio) John Horsley Michael S. Townes (TE 2011) through a competitive process in 2002 as a national “Center of Excellence.” The Institute is funded by Congress through the John L. Mica (Ex-Officio) Chief Executive Officer (Ex-Officio)* President/CEO (ret.) Amtrak Transportation District Commision of United States Department of Transportation’s Research and Innovative Technology Administration, the California Legislature Chair Executive Director House Transportation and American Association of State Hampton Roads through the Department of Transportation (Caltrans), and by private grants and donations. Infrastructure Committee Donald H. Camph (TE 2012) Highway and Transportation Officials House of Representatives President (AASHTO) David L. Turney* (TE 2012) California Institute for Technology Chairman, President & CEO The Institute receives oversight from an internationally respected Board of Trustees whose members represent all major surface Honorary Co-Chair, Honorable Exchange Will Kempton (TE 2012) Digital Recorders, Inc. transportation modes. MTI’s focus on policy and management resulted from a Board assessment of the industry’s unmet needs Nick Rahall (Ex-Officio) CEO Anne P. Canby (TE 2011) Edward Wytkind (Ex-Officio) and led directly to the choice of the San José State University College of Business as the Institute’s home. The Board provides Vice Chairman Orange County Transportation House Transportation and President Authority President policy direction, assists with needs assessment, and connects the Institute and its programs with the international transportation Infrastructure Committee Surface Transportation Policy Project Transportation Trades Department, community. House of Representatives Michael P. Melaniphy AFL-CIO Julie Cunningham (TE 2013) (Ex-Officio) Chair, Mortimer Downey Executive Director/CEO President & CEO MTI’s transportation policy work is centered on three primary responsibilities: (TE 2013) Conference of Minority American Public Transportation Senior Advisor Transportation Officials Association (APTA) PB Consult Inc. Research William Dorey (TE 2012) William Millar* (Ex-Officio) President/CEO MTI works to provide policy-oriented research for all levels of Department of Transportation, MTI delivers its classes over Vice Chair, Steve Heminger President (TE 2013) Granite Construction Inc. American Public Transportation government and the private sector to foster the development a state-of-the-art videoconference network throughout Executive Director Association (APTA) of optimum surface transportation systems. Research areas in- the state of California and via webcasting beyond, allowing Metropolitan Transportation Malcolm Dougherty Commission (Ex-Officio) Norman Y. Mineta (Ex-Officio) clude: transportation security; planning and policy development; working transportation professionals to pursue an advanced Acting Director Vice Chairman interrelationships among transportation, land use, and the degree regardless of their location. To meet the needs of Executive Director California Department of Hill & Knowlton Transportation Secretary of Transportation (ret.) environment; transportation finance; and collaborative labor- employers seeking a diverse workforce, MTI’s education Rod Diridon* (TE 2011) Mineta Transportation Institute management relations. Certified Research Associates conduct program promotes enrollment to under-represented groups. Nuria I. Fernandez (TE 2013) Stephanie L. Pinson (TE 2013) the research. Certification requires an advanced degree, gener- Thomas E. Barron (TE 2013) Senior Vice President President/COO President Major Programs Group CHRMHill Gilbert Tweed Associates, Inc. ally a Ph.D., a record of academic publications, and profession- Information and Technology Transfer Parsons Transportation Group al references. Research projects culminate in a peer-reviewed MTI promotes the availability of completed research to Rose Guilbault (TE 2012) David Steele (Ex-Officio) Ignacio Barron de Angoiti Vice President Dean, College of Business ** Honorary publication, available both in hardcopy and on TransWeb, professional organizations and journals and works to American Automobile Association * (Ex-Officio) San José State University Chair ^ the MTI website (http://transweb.sjsu.edu). integrate the research findings into the graduate education Director Passenger and High Speed Vice Chair Ed Hamberger (Ex-Officio) Paul Toliver* (TE 2013) # Past Chair program. In addition to publishing the studies, the Institute Department International Union of Railways President/CEO President Education also sponsors symposia to disseminate research results (UIC) Association of American Railroads New Age Industries The educational goal of the Institute is to provide graduate-lev- to transportation professionals and encourages Research el education to students seeking a career in the development Associates to present their findings at conferences. The and operation of surface transportation programs. MTI, through World in Motion, MTI’s quarterly newsletter, covers San José State University, offers an AACSB-accredited Master of innovation in the Institute’s research and education pro- Directors Science in Transportation Management and a graduate Certifi- grams. MTI’s extensive collection of transportation-related Research Associates Policy Oversight Committee Hon. Rod Diridon, Sr. cate in Transportation Management that serve to prepare the na- publications is integrated into San José State University’s Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Ph.D. Frances Edwards, Ph.D. Executive Director Urban and Regional Planning Political Science tion’s transportation managers for the 21st century. The master’s world-class Martin Luther King, Jr. Library. San José State University San José State University degree is the highest conferred by the California State Uni- Karen E. Philbrick, Ph.D. versity system. With the active assistance of the California Research Director Jan Botha, Ph.D. Taeho Park, Ph.D. Civil & Environmental Engineering Organization and Management Peter Haas, Ph.D. San José State University San José State University Education Director Katherine Kao Cushing, Ph.D. Diana Wu Donna Maurillo Enviromental Science Martin Luther King, Jr. Library DISCLAIMER Communications Director San José State University San José State University The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the information presented herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Brian Michael Jenkins Dave Czerwinski, Ph.D. Centers Program and the California Department of Transportation, in the interest of information exchange. This report does National Transportation Security Center of Marketing and Decision Science not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the U.S. government, State of California, or the Mineta Transportation Institute, Excellence San José State University who assume no liability for the contents or use thereof. This report does not constitute a standard specification, design standard, or regulation. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Ph.D. National Transportation Finance Center representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. REPORT 11-20 CARNAGE INTERRUPTED: AN ANALYSIS OF FIFTEEN TERRORIST PLOTS AGAINST PUBLIC SURFACE TRANSPORTATION Brian Michael Jenkins Joseph Trella April 2012 A publication of Mineta Transportation Institute Created by Congress in 1991 College of Business San José State University San José, CA 95192-0219 TECHNICAL REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 1. Report No. 2. Government Acession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. CA-MTI-12-2979 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Carnage Interrupted: An Analysis of Fifteen Terrorist Plots Against Public Surface April 2012 Transportation 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Authors 8. Performing Organization Report Brian Michael Jenkins and Joseph Trella MTI Report 11-20 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business San José State University 11. Contract or Grant No. 2008-ST-061-TS0004-02 San José, CA 95192-0219 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered California Department of Transportation U.S. Department of Transportation Final Report Office of Research—MS42 Research & Innovative Technology Admin. 14. Sponsoring Agency Code P.O. Box 942873 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE Sacramento, CA 94273-0001 Washington, DC 20590 U.S. Department of Homeland
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