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Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State? THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Pakistan Can the United States Secure an Insecure State? C. Christine Fair, Keith Crane, Christopher S. Chivvis, Samir Puri, Michael Spirtas Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-4807-3 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover image courtesy of AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti. © Copyright 2010 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Pakistan is pivotal to key U.S. security interests. This book is intended to help policymakers and analysts understand the security challenges inherent in and emanating from Pakistan as of this writing (August 2009). The authors exposit likely developments in Pakistan’s internal and external security environments within the next ten years; assess Pakistan’s national will and capacity to solve its problems, especially those relating to security; describe U.S. interests in Pakistan; and sug- gest policies for the U.S. government to pursue to secure these inter- ests. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this compli- cated state. This current effort is part of a larger body of RAND research on South Asia, including • The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Pakistan and India, by C. Christine Fair, MG-141-AF, 2004. • Limited Conflicts Under the Nuclear Umbrella: Indian and Paki- stani Lessons from the Kargil Crisis, by Ashley J. Tellis, C. Chris- tine Fair, and Jamison Jo Medby, MR-1450-USCA, 2001. • Securing Tyrants or Fostering Reform? U.S. Internal Security Assis- tance to Repressive and Transitioning Regimes, by Seth G. Jones, Olga Oliker, Peter Chalk, C. Christine Fair, Rollie Lal, and James Dobbins, MG-550-OSI, 2006. • Stability in South Asia, by Ashley J. Tellis, DB-185-A, 1997. iii iv Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State? • War and Escalation in South Asia, by John E. Peters, James Dick- ens, Derek Eaton, C. Christine Fair, Nina Hachigian, Theodore W. Karasik, Rollie Lal, Rachel M. Swanger, Gregory F. Trever- ton, and Charles Wolf Jr., MG-367-1-AF, 2006. The study was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Opera- tions, Plans and Requirements, Headquarters, United States Air Force. The research was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2008 study, “Pakistan: Helping to Secure an Insecure State.” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary ........................................................................ xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Purpose .............................................................................. 1 Organization ........................................................................ 4 Research Approach ................................................................. 5 CHAPTER TWO Pakistan’s Future: Is Past Prologue? .......................................... 7 Failed Constitutionalism and Governance ...................................... 8 Central Governance in Dispute ................................................ 9 The Center’s Relations with the Provinces and Other Areas ..............11 The Army: Guarantor of an Insecure State? ...................................16 The Army’s Preeminent Role in Decisionmaking ...........................19 Regional Security and Risk Taking ...........................................21 Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Sources of Security and Insecurity ......... 26 Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons .................................................. 27 The Proliferation Challenges ................................................. 28 Organization and Security of Pakistan’s Nuclear Infrastructure .........31 International Significance of Pakistan’s Nuclear Challenges .............33 v vi Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State? Pakistan’s Problematic Political Landscape ................................... 40 Principal Political Parties...................................................... 42 Pakistan’s Internal Security Challenges ....................................... 48 Islamism, Militancy, and the State............................................51 The Post–9/11 Militant Landscape ...........................................53 Demographic Trends .............................................................58 Population Growth .............................................................58 Urbanization .....................................................................59 The Economy ......................................................................61 Economic Growth ..............................................................61 Inflation and Fiscal Balance ...................................................63 Employment, Income Growth, and Poverty ................................ 64 Economic Outlook .............................................................67 Social Development .............................................................. 68 Education ........................................................................69 Health ............................................................................71 Concluding Remarks .............................................................72 CHAPTER THREE Pakistan’s Ability to Mitigate Sources of Insecurity
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