University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Masters Theses Graduate School 5-2008 Predicting and Analyzing Gentrification in tlanta,A Georgia Jonathan M. Law University of Tennessee - Knoxville Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes Part of the Geography Commons Recommended Citation Law, Jonathan M., "Predicting and Analyzing Gentrification in tlanta,A Georgia. " Master's Thesis, University of Tennessee, 2008. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/395 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Masters Theses by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a thesis written by Jonathan M. Law entitled "Predicting and Analyzing Gentrification in tlanta,A Georgia." I have examined the final electronic copy of this thesis for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree of Master of Science, with a major in Geography. Anita Drever, Major Professor We have read this thesis and recommend its acceptance: Thomas Bell, Ronald Foresta Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a thesis written by Jonathan M. Law entitled “Predicting and Analyzing Gentrification in Atlanta, Georgia.” I have examined the final electronic copy of the thesis for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, with a major in Geography. ________________________ Anita Drever, Major Professor We have read this thesis and recommend its acceptance: ____________________________ Thomas Bell ____________________________ Ronald Foresta Accepted for the Council: ______________________________ Carolyn R. Hodges, Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official student records) Predicting and Analyzing Gentrification in Atlanta, Georgia A Thesis Presented for the Master of Science Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Jonathan M. Law May 2008 Acknowledgements I would like to thank all of the people who helped make this thesis possible. I thank my parents, for without their support this endeavor may not have been possible. I thank Dr. Anita Drever for helping me formulate the idea for the research and for advising me every step of the way. I also thank Dr. Ron Foresta and Dr. Tom Bell, whose comments and suggestions were invaluable and whose understanding of urban geography is unparalleled. I thank those graduate students who were my classmates as I completed my coursework in the Department of Geography, who are an intelligent group of people who I have enjoyed interacting with and learning from. Finally, I thank all of the friends, here in Knoxville and elsewhere, who have supported me during my time at the University of Tennessee. ii Abstract First viewed as an aberration by some when it began to occur in inner cities, the process of gentrification is now common and even significant in U.S. cities, as it runs counter to the urban sprawl that plagues most of them. Gentrification can have far-reaching effects, as it usually involves rising property values and changes in ethnic make-up, and sometimes gives rise to concerns over displacement of original residents and affordable housing. In the context of a broad literature on gentrification which has failed to produce much agreement on its causes or how it works, this research attempts, utilizing census data from Atlanta, Georgia for 1990 and 2000 to attempt to understand how gentrification begins and progresses in a Southern city. I conduct T-tests between gentrifying and non-gentrifying inner city neighborhoods for socioeconomic, housing and geographic characteristics, and then attempt to create a predictive model for where gentrification will occur based on these variables. I then further examine the geography of gentrification and the housing and ethnic make-up of gentrifying neighborhoods in Atlanta. Only one housing variable, percent built before 1940, and no socioeconomic variables were significant in the model. The significance of this variable, coupled with the overall difficulty in predicting gentrification, confirmed that various forms of gentrification are taking place in Atlanta, with older housing in some areas being cleared by development companies to make way for large multifamily housing developments, and in others being renovated one by one. Significantly, this research found that geography has an important role in the process, with clustering of gentrifying neighborhoods probably as a result of diffusion from maturing gentrified neighborhoods. Despite Atlanta’s sizable African- iii American middle class, the data did not indicate African-Americans playing a larger role in gentrification there during the 1990s. Along with these findings, this study confirms the need for further research on the ways gentrification starts, progresses, and affects the people involved. iv Table of Contents INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 Gentrification and the Urban Environment..................................................................... 3 Site Selection ..................................................................................................................5 The Context for Gentrification in Atlanta....................................................................... 6 THE GENTRIFICATION PROCESS .............................................................................. 10 Defining and Measuring Gentrification........................................................................ 14 Methodologies and the Process of Gentrification......................................................... 17 ANALYSIS....................................................................................................................... 23 Data............................................................................................................................... 23 Variables ....................................................................................................................... 27 Methods of Analysis ..................................................................................................... 28 MODELS AND FINDINGS............................................................................................. 31 DISCUSSION................................................................................................................... 39 Diffusion of Gentrification ........................................................................................... 44 Ethnicity and Gentrification in Atlanta......................................................................... 47 The Geography of Gentrification and Increased Homeownership ............................... 48 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................... 52 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 56 Appendix........................................................................................................................... 62 Vita.................................................................................................................................... 65 v List of Figures Figure 1: Potentially Gentrifying Block Groups in Atlanta.............................................. 26 Figure 2: Median rent change 1990-2000........................................................................ 43 Figure 3: Median value change 1990-2000 ..................................................................... 43 Figure 4: Selected Block Groups in Atlanta's inner city.................................................. 46 Figure 5: Change in percent owner-occupied 1990-2000................................................ 50 vi List of Tables Table 1: T-tests for 1990 variables .................................................................................. 31 Table 2: T-tests for 2000 variables .................................................................................. 32 Table 3: T-tests for change in variables 1990-2000......................................................... 32 Table 4: Demographic Predictors of Gentrification......................................................... 36 Table 5: Housing Characteristics as Gentrification Predictors........................................ 36 Table 6: Socioeconomic and Geographic Predictors....................................................... 36 Table 7: Interaction of Race and Socioeconomic Factors ............................................... 36 Table 8: Household Size, Age and Type as Predictors.................................................... 36 Table 9: Comparison of Tract 53, BG 4 and Tract 55.01, BG 1...................................... 46 vii Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION During the 1990s, the gaze of urban geographers and urban sociologists shifted away from the CBD and its surrounding areas to edge cities on the urban