Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios I Ii Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios

Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios i ii Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios iii CONTENTS Acknowledgements i Acronyms ii Introduction 1 Welcome Address Dr. Maqsudul Hasan Nuri 8 Opening Remarks Dr. Peter Witterauf 11 Inaugural Address Mr. Alamgir Babar 14 Concluding Address Senator Afrasiab Khattak 16 CHAPTER 1 Governance Crisis and Institution-Building Ambassador Ann Wilkens 18 Transition in Afghanistan: Imperatives of Handling Internal and External Security Challenges Prof. Dr. Lubna Abid Ali 23 Rebuilding the Economy and Post-Conflict Assistance Prof. Dr. Zafar Moeen Nasir 36 CHAPTER 2 An All-inclusive State? The Problem of Ethnic Diversity Prof. Dr. Sarfraz Khan 45 Reconciliation with the Taliban: Challenges and Possibilities Dr. S. Gulden Ayman 54 Towards the Re-emergence of the Former “Northern Alliance”? Dr. Andreas Rieck 64 CHAPTER 3 Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Changing Bilateral Relations Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi 82 iv Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios CHAPTER 4 Rebuilding Afghanistan: Responsibilities of the International Community (NATO, UN) Dr. Christian Wagner 91 Transition in Afghanistan: Post-Exit Scenarios Lt. Gen. (R) Kamal Mateenuddin 97 Afghanistan: War on Terror — Success, Failure and Future Mr. Rustam Shah Mohmand 119 Contributors 129 Index 133 IPRI Publications 136 Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios v Acknowledgements This volume is based on papers presented at the two-day International Conference on the theme of ―Transition in Afghanistan: Post-Exit Scenarios‖ held on October 5-6, 2011 at Marriott Hotel, Islamabad. The conference was jointly organised by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and the Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF), Islamabad. The organisers of the conference are especially thankful to Dr Martin Axmann, Country Representative, HSF, Islamabad, for his co-operation and sharing the financial expense of the conference. For the papers presented in this volume, we are grateful to all participants from Pakistan and abroad, as well as the chairpersons of the different sessions, who took time out from their busy schedules to preside over the proceedings. We are also thankful to the scholars, students and professionals who accepted our invitation to participate in the conference. The successful completion of the conference owes much to the untiring efforts and logistical support provided by the staff of the IPRI and the HSF. We deeply regret that this volume could not be produced within the stipulated time due to some unavoidable circumstances. Finally, our thanks are due to all those whom it would not be possible to thank individually for their help in making the conference a success. Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios 1 Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank AIB Afghan International Bank ANA Afghan National Army ANBP Afghanistan New Beginnings Programme ANP Afghan National Police APRP Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Programme CAREC Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation CIA Central Intelligence Agency COIN Counter Insurgency Strategy CSATTF Central and South Asia Transport and Trade Forum CSIS Centre for Strategic and International Studies DABM Da Afghanistan Breshna Mosesa DABS Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration DIAG Disbandment of Illegal Armed Groups EC European Commission ECO Economic Cooperation Organization FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Area FID Foreign Internal Defence model GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product GoIRA Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan HDI Human Development Index HPC High Peace Council IC International Community ISAF International Security Assistance Force ISI Inter Services Intelligence NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NDS National Directorate of Security OBL Osama bin Laden ODA Official Development Assistance OEF Operation Enduring Freedom OEF Operation Enduring Freedom 2 Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios PDPA People‘s Democratic Party of Afghanistan PTS Program Takhim-e-Solh ROZs Reconstruction Opportunity Zones SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SPECA Special Programme for the Economies of Central Asia SSR Security Sector Reform TTP Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNF United National Front WTC World Trade Centre Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios 1 Introduction Dr. Noor ul Haq Muhammad Hanif, Khalid Chandio & Aftab Hussain his volume is based on the papers read and presentations made at the two-day International Seminar on ―Transition in Afghanistan: Post- T Exit Scenarios‖ jointly organised by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and the Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF), Germany at Marriott Hotel, Islamabad on October 5-6, 2011. Prominent scholars, academicians and policy-makers from Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, India, United States of America (USA), Sweden and Germany participated and shared their views on different aspects of the ongoing transition in Afghanistan and what could be the possible post exit scenarios once the United States (US) and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) troops withdrew from the country. Afghanistan has been in turmoil for more than 30 years. Occupations, wars and unrest have not permitted the state to come to peace. After ten years of ‗War on Terror‘ and dismantling the Taliban government in November 2001, the international community has decided to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. In December 2010, a drawdown plan was announced: the security responsibility for some regions would be handed over to Afghan forces in July 2011 and the first international troops would leave Afghanistan. The transition process will be completed by the end of 2014. To ensure long-term stability — the international community will, however, remain involved in Afghanistan beyond this date. After ten years of military engagement, it has become apparent that permanent peace in Afghanistan can only be realized through a political settlement involving all ethnic groups and the Taliban who would have to renounce violence and vow to abide by the Afghan Constitution. Such an agreement also needs the input and help of neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan. It is thus of utmost importance to understand the current dynamics of Afghanistan‘s politico-strategic environment, to identify the motives and interests of involved actors and to examine the factors which demand attention and have to be addressed in the transition phase. How can political stability and good governance be ensured in the long run? What has to be done to rebuild Afghanistan‘s economy? How will the Afghan government get out of its dependence on foreign aid? What is going to be the role of the international community? What are the interests of the United States, especially in view of its on-going ‗War on Terror‘? How will the regional 2 Transition in Afghanistan Post-Exit Scenarios balance of power shift? What will be the situation in the Afghan-Pakistan borderland after the withdrawal? From a failing state to a functioning democracy, many scenarios for a post-exit Afghanistan seem possible. Which one of them is most likely? How can the best outcome be achieved? These are only some of the questions and issues that have to be addressed urgently. IPRI in collaboration with HSF organised a two-day international conference on ―Transition in Afghanistan: Post-Exit Scenarios‖ to answer these questions. National and international experts on Afghanistan and the region were invited to deliberate on the topic, to visualize the possible post-exit scenarios and suggest ideas and strategies to ensure the best possible outcome for Afghanistan. The book has two parts. The first part includes the inaugural address by the chief guest, Mr. Alamgir Babar, Additional Secretary for Central Asia and Afghanistan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan, welcome address by Dr. Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, then Acting President IPRI, opening remarks by Dr. Peter Witterauf of the HSF, and the concluding speech in the final session by Senator Afrasiab Khattak, Chairman Senate Standing Committee on Human Rights. The second part of the book consists of ten papers, presented in the conference, six from Pakistan, two from Germany and one each from Turkey and Sweden. The papers describe the experiences of these countries through case studies. They touch upon various aspects of the issue and suggest ways to remedy the situation. The papers by Pakistani scholars present the Pakistani perspective and how their authors visualize the post-exit scenarios. Ambassador (R) Ann Wilkens, Member of the Advisory Board, Afghanistan Analysts Network, in her paper on ―Governance Crisis and Institution-building‖ says that the international coalition‘s journey in Afghanistan has been from a positive commitment to a negative commitment. There were three pillars in the beginning: security, governance and development. The military was meant to support the last two. But security became the main pillar due to a number of developments. There were three mistakes built in the very beginning: re-empowering the warlords; lack of coordination inside the international effort; and third, the lack of regional perspective, which should have been much more important from the beginning. She quotes the Taliban who say that ―you have the clocks but we have the time,‖ and she thinks they are right. Governance became a sort of stepchild

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