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UPM Corporate Presentation UPM corporate presentation Balance between supply and demand 2011 - 2014 SHB Materials Seminar Jussi Vanhanen President, Engineered Materials Business Group 10 March, 2011 Contents • UPM's strategy and financials • Paper markets • Pulp markets • Label markets • Summary STRATEGY AND FINANCIALS Restructuring has been a prerequisite for improved profitability and UPM’s renewal 1996-2003 2004-2010 2009- Restructuring Growth & UPM & securing renewal Internationalisation the platform • Acquisitions • Restructuring • Biofore vision • Opportunities and - Europe - Mill closures priorities • Market driven - Biofuels - North America - Cost cutting organization - China - Internal - Changshu paper mill expansion efficiency • Acquisitions • Greenfield - Expansion in investments • Platform building - Uruguay chemical pulp - Myllykoski - Divestments - Investments in • First biomass European cost - Greenfield efficiency boilers investments - OL4 - Product renewal STRATEGY AND FINANCIALS Heading there % of sales Operating profit excluding special items 16 14,1 14 12 Target over 10% 10 9,2 8,3 8,2 8 7,2 6,0 6 5,4 4,4 4,8 4 3,5 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4 | © UPM STRATEGY AND FINANCIALS Longer perspective – cash flow over a full cycle € million 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 Cash flow, trailing 12 months 400 200 0 5 -200 | Q104 © UPM Q204 Operating Q304 Q404 cash flow Q105 Q205 Q305 Q405 Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Cash flow Q108 after capex * ) Q208 € 982m excluding acquisitionsQ308 and divestments Q408 Q109 € 741m Q209 *( Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 STRATEGY AND FINANCIALS UPM's asset base provided strong cash flow through the recession Net debt / EBITDA Net debt, € million (trailing 12 months) Net debt, € million Gearing % 5 500 4,5 5 500 90 5 000 4,0 5 000 80 Net debt / EBITDA Gearing 3.5 4 500 3,5 4 500 70 4 000 3,0 4 000 56 60 3 500 2,5 3 500 50 2.4 46 3 000 2,0 3 000 40 Net debt Net debt 2 500 1,5 2 500 30 6 7 8 7 8 9 0 0 0 06 0 0 009 0 00 00 01 200 2 2 2 2010 2 2 200 2 2 6 | © UPM STRATEGY AND FINANCIALS Modern assets mean low investment needs on existing capacity € million Capital expenditure and estimate for 2011 1 000 Low operational capex Estimate requirements 800 • Large scale pulp mills and paper machines 720 • Modern machines require 600 less maintenance than old 400 300(* Few must-do investments 257 • No pulp mill rebuilds 200 • UPM capex is discretionary 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11e Depreciation excl. Strategic investments amortization of goodwill Operational investments Uruguay and PVO acquisitions 7 | © UPM *) excluding acquisitions Outlook for 2011 (* • Guidance for operating profit excluding special items - 2011 to improve from 2010 - H1 2011 to improve clearly from H1 2010 • Variable cost inflation expected to moderate from 2010 • Business area drivers for 2011 vs. 2010 2011 vs. 2010 Prices Deliveries Energy Pulp Sawn timber Paper Label Plywood UPM average 8 | © UPM (* See complete wording of the "Outlook" in the Financial Review 2010 MYLLYKOSKI ACQUISITION MYLLYKOSKI ACQUISITION UPM acquires Myllykoski • UPM has signed an agreement to acquire Myllykoski Corporation and Rhein Papier GmbH • Enterprise value EUR 900 million • Financing - UPM issues 5 million shares - UPM raises bank loans of EUR 800m • The agreement subject to customary closing conditions, incl. approvals from competition authorities – expected to close in the Q3 2011 • Main rationale is to improve profitability and cost efficiency in UPM European paper business 10 | © UPM All figures apart from the number of shares are approximates MYLLYKOSKI ACQUISITION Summary of the financial impacts Earnings impact • Estimated annual synergies over EUR 100 million – materialising from 2012 • Cash flow enhancing immediately after closing • Earnings per share enhancing in 2012 Other • UPM will book a one-off gain of approximately EUR 300 million • Estimated restructuring costs and investments total EUR 100-150m Balance sheet impact • Net debt increases by approximately EUR 800 million • Gearing estimated to increase by 8 percentage points • Group's assets increase by about EUR 1.6 billion 11 | © UPM MYLLYKOSKI ACQUISITION Paper operations to be acquired Cap. Mills Grade Personnel 1,000 t Q3/2010 Myllykoski Paper LWC, SC 600 469 MD Albbruck MWC/LWC 320 544 Madison Lang Paper News, SC 600 413 North America MD Plattling LWC 400 387 Madison Paper SC 220 229 Plattling Papier (RP) SC 380 114 Hûrth (RP) News 310 102 TOTAL 2,830 2,600 *) Myllykoski Paper Source: Myllykoski *) incl. non-mill personnel Rhein Papier Invested recently over EUR 700m on new capacity Plattling Lang • Plattling PM 1 (2007); 380,000 t/a of SC paper Albbruck • Hürth (2002); 310,000 t/a of newsprint UPM mills Myllykoski mills 12 | © UPM MYLLYKOSKI ACQUISITION Achieve sustainable cost structure through consolidation Price Transaction Declining real price trend – needed for print media competitiveness Margin squeeze Sustainable Costs profitability Restructuring costs and Continuous potential investments to gain synergies for cost savings in a large production portfolio 13 | © UPM PAPER MARKETS PAPER Graphic papers demand improved in all regions in 2010 '000 tonnes Europe'000 tonnes North America '000 tonnes Asia 70 000 70 000 70 000 +3% 65 000 65 000 65 000 60 000 60 000 60 000 5% 55 000 55 000 55 000 -1% 50 000 50 000 50 000 45 000 45 000 45 000 4% 40 000 40 000 40 000 -7% 35 000 35 000 35 000 30 000 30 000 2% 30 000 25 000 25 000 25 000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e W. Eur demand E. Eur demand Capacity NA demand Capacity Asia demand Capacity Source: Cepiprint, Cepifine, PPPC, PPI 15 | © UPM PAPER Graphic papers demand is shifting to growth markets million tons 1990-2010 CAGR 2.0% p.a. 2011-2020 CAGR 0.6% p.a. 150 150 Others 3% 5% China 100 100 9% Japan 4% 0% -2% North America -1% 50 -3% 50 2% Europe -1% 0 0 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10e '15e '20e Source: JP, PPPC, RISI, BCG, UPM 16 | © UPMU PAPER Graphic papers1) trade flow changes 2006-2010 – net exports from Europe are declining 50 40 66 61 38 36 2006 -> 2010p 2006 -> 2010p 3.4 -> 2.6 0.3 -> 0.5 Net exports Net exports Europe 2.7 -> 1.8 Europe 3.3 -> 3.2 0.7 -> 0.8 3.6 -> 3.7 N. America Europe2) & 2006 -> 2010p L. America 1.3 -> 1.6 Asia N. America Net exports 0.1 -> 0.6 & Capacity 1.2 -> 1.0 Oceania 158 mill. tons Demand 2 3 137 mill. tons Africa 1) Maga, News and Fine grades 2) Excl. WFU special Source: Cepiprint, PPPC, RISI, JP, UPM 17 | © UPM PAPER Net capacity reduction by company 6.6 million tonnes (12%) in Europe in 2005–2011e Stora Enso M-Real UPM has closed UPM 1.8m tonnes in Norske Skog Sappi total, including Mat. & Forest North America Int. Paper AbitibiBowater Burgo Arctic Paper PSM – + Paperalia S.A. Holmen P. de Voiron/Vertaris Myllykoski Perlen Papier Palm Group Portucel Others -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 decided changes included Source: Pöyry, UPM, public sources net changes '000 tons 18 | © UPM PAPER UPM has completed major restructuring in 2006-2009 tons/ person Personnel in Paper business area person Capacity and deliveries per employee 18 000 1000 17 000 Closed units 16 000 -2 300 900 15 000 Deliveries per employee 14 000 800 13 000 12 000 700 11 000 Continuing operations 10 000 -2 800 (-20%) 600 9 000 Capacity per employee 8 000 500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: no significant outsourcing 19 | © UPM PAPER Fibre prices squeezing paper makers' margins WFU / LWC €/ton Hardwood pulp (BHKP) €/ton Newsprint €/ton RCP (ONP) €/ton 950 800 600 200 BHKP 850 700 Newsprint 550 150 WFU 750 600 LWC 500 100 650 500 RCP 450 50 550 400 450 300 400 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 WFU LWC PIX BHKP News 45 g/m² RCP Source: FOEX Indexes Ltd., PPI, RISI 20 | © UPM PAPER UPM's paper prices in 2011 • UPM has increased paper prices in the beginning of 2011. Examples in Europe: - Magazine papers about + 5-8% - Newsprint about + 20% - Fine and speciality papers no material changes • The average price for UPM's paper deliveries is expected to increase by about 6% in the beginning of the year from Q4 2010 • Publication paper prices return broadly to 2009 level • Raw material costs have increased substantially from 2009 21 | © UPM PULP MARKETS 22 | © UPM PULP Chemical pulp demand is growing driven by various end-uses Market pulp demand development 2003-2014 ‘000 tonnes Other Publication Papers 70 000 Forecast 60 000 Packaging 50 000 Fine Papers, 40 000 mature markets 30 000 20 000 Tissue 10 000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fine Papers, 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e growth markets BHKP BSKP UKP Sulphite Source: PPPC, Pöyry, UPM 23 | © UPM PULP Capacity growth is focused on regions with increasing wood availability and cost efficient plantation operations 8 000 Chemical market pulp capacity growth by region 2.4% 2009 - 2014 6 000 4 000 4.7% '000 tonnes 2 000 4.3% 1.2% 1.8% 0.2% Wood availability 0 Increasing Total Latin Asia North EasternWestern America America Europe Europe Stable / decreasing Source: PPPC Source: Pöyry 24 | © UPM PULP UPM’s cost competitive pulp capacity 3.2 million tons is produced at four modern mills €/t Market pulp producers' delivered cash costs to Frankfurt, EUR/t 750 UPM Finland UPM Uruguay 650 Metsä-Botnia Finland 550 450 Increased share of plantation based pulp 350 250 World softwood World hardwood market pulp market pulp 150 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 Cumulative capacity, 1000 t/a Source: Pöyry estimate Q4/2010 25 | © UPM LABEL MARKETS LABEL Development from cost cutting to renewal provides long-term profitability for Label 2010 2009-10 2000-08 Focus on renewal – but maintaining cost efficiency .
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