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Internet Everywhere!

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Internet Everywhere! It appears to me as if Google is throwing things at a wall to see what scks. Perhaps it would be be;er off to put together partnerships with other players. Thur June 12, 2014 Internet Everywhere! Google is rapidly moving in many direc;ons to provide ubiquitous Internet worldwide. First it was muni-Wi- Fi in its own backyard, then fiber to the home in Kansas City, and soon, according to Google, in up to 34 more ci;es. The caveat here is that the ci;es have to provide Google with infrastructure blueprints and a streamlined construc;on process to scope out construc;on costs. The fiber to the home bale will be interes;ng to watch as Verizon, AT&T, Google, and the cable TV companies circle around the issue of construc;on cost per house. Next comes the Google Loon project where hot air balloons are launched and supposed to be steerable—or at least follow predictable routes to provide Internet to those within the balloons’ wireless footprint. Then to augment the Loons, drones will be used as gap fillers. And finally, the latest in the Google arsenal of wireless Internet offerings is the recently announced low-earth orbi;ng satellite (LEO) system. Before looking at what Google is planning here, let’s take a stroll back in ;me to 1995 when Bill Gates, Paul Allen, Craig McCaw, and Saudi Prince Awaked bin Talal formed a company called Teledesic. The company’s plans in 1995 were to invest a total of $9 billion and launch 840 low-earth orbi;ng satellites to provide worldwide Internet coverage with download speeds of up to 100 Mbps and upload speeds of 720 Mbps. By 1997, the number of satellites to be launched had been reduced to only 288 but at higher al;tudes. The company went out of business in 2002 with no satellites launched and no income. Okay, today ;mes are different, satellite technology is much more advanced and less expensive, launch vehicles are more readily available, and Google certainly has the resources to make something like this work. However, I have to wonder whether there is a sustainable business model in this. Suppose Google spends $5 or $6 billion to put the satellites into orbit. It will need ground staons and all of the other backend equipment necessary for mul;ple connec;ons to the Internet. Coverage will be outdoor only or require a roof-mounted antenna for inbuilding service, and may or may not be available for mobile devices depending on the system design and what can be built into the mobile devices, what they will need in the way of antennas, and other related factors. Where there is no cellular fourth-generaon LTE broadband the Google satellite service will be welcomed for sure. However, in most of the rural areas currently unserved by LTE, residents and business owners may not be the most affluent and therefore, depending on the monthly price, might be very slow to commit to the service. In areas where LTE is available, chances are preKy good that there will also be cable or fiber to the home, plenty of Wi-Fi, free and otherwise, and at least three or four connec;vity op;ons. In order to gain acceptance in these markets, the Google satellite service will have to: 1) Be price compeve 2) Provide low-latency access to the Internet 3) Be available 24X7 4) Have provisions for inbuilding access of some sort When Teledesic was first conceived, the land mass not covered by cellular systems was much greater than today. Since the early 2000s, terrestrial wireless networks have expanded to cover many areas around the world that were never covered before. This trend will con;nue and with the advent of Public Safety broadband systems being built around the world, wireless terrestrial broadband coverage will con;nue to grow and provide coverage to more of the world’s rural and remote areas. Certainly there will always be por;ons of the world that are not covered by terrestrial wireless but there is s;ll the ques;on of whether covering these areas will provide Google with sufficient income to provide a decent return on its investment. Of course, Google’s business model has never been a “normal” business model since it is based on the number of eyeballs it can aract and how much they are worth to Google’s adver;sers. But will that model sustain itself when the eyeballs it is chasing are living in rural and remotes areas of the world? Assuming it won’t, I have to wonder what is mo;vang Google to push into all of these wireless Internet delivery methods at the same ;me. Finding radio spectrum to use for broadband within the confines of the United States is difficult enough; finding spectrum to use worldwide has to be even tougher. Yes, satellite spectrum is coordinated on a worldwide basis, but then Google will have to buy an exis;ng satellite provider or partner with one or more providers. As it turns out, that is exactly what Google has done, announcing today that will purchase Skybox imaging for $500 million. Skybox is a satellite start-up that is building small satellites for imaging purposes so theore;cally these liKle birds could provide a new imaging source for Google Maps as well as wireless Internet to the underserved. From muni-Wi-Fi through TV White Space to balloons, drones, and now liKle LEO satellites, it appears to me as if Google is throwing things at a wall to see what s;cks. Perhaps it would be beKer off to put together partnerships with other players. I have on several wriKen about providing wireless connec;vity and Internet access in rural areas both in the United States and around the world. In each of these ar;cles I have stated that if providing these services is a serious goal, then one way to approach the problem is to enlist partners in each area that needs to be served. There will be different partners for different por;ons of the world. One of the easiest places to provide rural access is in the United States and there are plenty of partners available that are ready and willing to work with Google or some other group of partners to make it happen. For example, the FirstNet Naonwide Public Safety Broadband Network (NPSBN) is required by law to cover deep into rural America. This will be accomplished by extending terrestrial networks into rural areas and also by deploying satellite communicaons into areas that are difficult to cover. FirstNet is permiKed to team with partners that will assist in building out the network and then share the FirstNet spectrum on a secondary basis. Rural network operators represented by the Compe;;ve Carriers Associaon (CCA), rural power companies, tribal en;;es, and others are all interested in taking part in building out rural America with FirstNet. All it would take is for Google to stand up and put together a group of interested partners, making use of their financial might, perhaps their exis;ng fiber assets, and their willingness to work with others. Rural America could be blanketed with LTE and satellite broadband fairly easily. With the number of poten;al partners sing in the wings wai;ng for someone to take the lead, it could also be done fairly quickly. Each country around the world offers some type of poten;al partnerships for Google. All Google has to do is to have a mindset that it is willing to work with partners in order to provide Internet services. Deals can be made, investments defined, and wireless coverage provided to benefit those in areas with no Internet access today. Google and its partners can make money by providing access and services, and because there would be local partners in each area, it should be easier to work with regulators and others to accomplish their goals. Yet Google seems bent on going it alone. It is a big company for sure but every company has finite resources even if they some;mes appear to be inexhaus;ble. To provide Internet access to every ci;zen in every country in the world, even using satellites, is a massive undertaking. Even though Teledesic failed in the 1990s, it started out right by bringing in a number of different partners, sharing the costs, and sharing the rewards if any. In the case of Teledesic, it was simply too early, but that has been the fate of a number of wireless ventures. How many of you remember Metricom, which was located in Los Gatos, CA, just outside San Jose? Metricom built and deployed the world’s first muni-Wi-Fi system and deployed it in a number of ci;es. It baled for permission to mount its boxes on street lights and take its power from the street lights, and it baled the perming process and ci;zens who did not like the look of the boxes, but it did provide wireless Internet very early on to a number of ci;es and college campuses. The company was in business from 1985 and finally shut down in 2001 aer a number of setbacks. The founders lost control of Metricom to Paul Allen (co-founder of Microsos) in 1997 but had pioneered the muni-Wi-Fi concept. Its Ricochet product was available in more than fourteen major ci;es and surrounding suburbs and at one point it boasted more than 51,000 subscribers. Also early to the party, Metricom broke the ground that has been plowed many ;mes since it showed the way.
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