Economics at Carolina University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

From the Editor 2003

Welcome to the 4th edi- Omicron Delta Epsilon. Two major economics journals continue to tion of the Economics De- Some fundamental academic changes are be edited by our faculty (The Journal of partment Newsletter. in the works as the College of Arts and Business and Economic Statistics and The Please note that this edi- Sciences is currently in the midst of a cur- Journal of Econometrics). The Depart- tion represents a change riculum reform which will ultimately af- ment has continued its strong participa- from previous newsletters fect all the departments in the College in tion in various types of international activ- in that it contains both graduate and under- terms of the structure of the undergraduate ity, appropriate to the increasingly global graduate news items. Given the overlap in major and required course perspectives. economic world in which we live and work. information in the two publications and Our revamped economic statistics and re- This work is the focus of a special section the presence of budget constraints, we have quired math courses, described in the last in this newsletter and I hope that you will elected to combine the two newsletters into newsletter, have been fully implemented, find it interesting and informative. one. This newsletter thus provides a more resulting in an improvement in the nature Let me take this opportunity to thank complete picture of the Department and it of the material covered and the usefulness all of you who have taken the time to con- is our hope that all readers will find the to our majors both in their classwork here tact us this past year and bring us up to broader coverage of this edition interesting and in their jobs after graduation. We also date on your life since leaving Carolina. It and informative. are experimenting this year by using sev- was especially enjoyable to chat with those Our 101st year has proven to be more eral of our senior economics majors as spe- of you who took time to stop by the De- difficult for the Department given the bud- cial teaching assistants in our Principles of partment while you were in Chapel Hill. I get difficulties of the state and the univer- Economics courses. Nine of our top ma- hope that you have had a good year and sity system. Bad budget situations, how- jors were selected to participate in this ac- that life has treated you well in what has ever, have not slowed growth in student tivity. This program has been organized been difficult times at home and abroad. pursuit of the economics major. We now by Professor Ralph Byrns, with the assis- Please continue to keep in touch with us have 520 juniors and seniors declaring eco- tance of Professors Conway, Salemi and regarding interesting and important events nomics as their major, and a total of 600 Tauchen, who direct our Teacher Training which are part of your life. We are espe- when including declared majors in the Gen- Program. The students benefit since the cially interested in suggestions you might eral College. The teaching needs resulting TAs provide additional weekly office have for improving the educational experi- from the high demand for our courses have hours, lead special review sessions and con- ence of our majors and any information continued to strain our capacity. We have duct help sessions. At the same time, the you may have regarding summer intern- been fortunate to hire three excellent fixed- TAs benefit from participating in a differ- ships and jobs which you feel should be term faculty, Brad Schwartz, Ralph Byrns ent learning experience and the opportu- brought to the attention of our students. and John Serieux, who, along with several nity to develop valuable presentation skills. In addition, the most current information of our top graduate teaching assistants al- The faculty have continued to be active about the Department and its ongoing ac- low us to meet our most important teach- in the research area, in terms of obtaining tivities can be found at our website at ing needs. Fortunately, the quality of our research grants, publishing in high quality www.unc.edu/depts/econ. My very best majors remains high as evidenced by their journals and consulting with government wishes for a successful, prosperous and overall academic records, the outstanding agencies and international organizations. Of interesting year. I encourage you to stop Senior Honors Thesis and the number of special note this year was the awarding of by and see us at anytime. economics majors initiated into both Phi a University funded and selected distin- Beta Kappa and the economics honorary, guished professorship to David Guilkey. Al Field

Economics at Carolina -- Page 1 Research at Carolina

As I have noted in the past, faculty are interests is demonstrated in the many var- combined the approaches of economic his- engaged in research on many different theo- ied projects that he has had on his plate tory and public economics to examine retical and applied policy issues both at over the last few months. whether over the past 150 years American the micro level and at the macro level. Wearing his traditional economic history communities have become more stratified These differences are evident in the re- hat Rhode has recently been working with or sorted by their residents’ demands for search discussed in this year’s newsletter. co-author Alan Olmstead to complete a set different types of public goods. Research In this issue four professors briefly dis- of studies on programs in the early 20th in the area has often employed the well cuss specific research projects that they century to improve the quality of the milk known Tiebout model which suggests that are currently involved in. These authors supply. Circa 1900 milk was such a com- individuals will sort themselves according include Prof. Paul Rhode who describes mon carrier of disease that it was some- to their public good demands to create ho- several different projects he is involved in times called “white poison.” In a study mogeneous communities. Strumpf and which fall under the rubric of economic titled “An Impossible Undertaking: The Rhode extend the model to include the ef- history, Professors Conway and Field who Eradication of Bovine Tuberculosis in the fects of mobility costs and conclude that provide an overview of a current project United States,” Olmstead and Rhode in- theoretically as mobility costs fall, the het- which focuses on current adjustment is- vestigate the origins and operation of the erogeneity across communities of public sues facing the North Carolina Textile in- federal-state cooperative program, started good demands and provision levels should dustry in this period of rapid globaliza- in 1917, that successfully eradicated bo- increase. Contrary to these predictions, tion, and Assistant Professor Sandra vine TB in US cattle herds by 1941. Be- they find American communities have be- Campo who describes some of the theo- sides increasing dairy productivity, this come less sorted in the historical record. retical and econometric work she is doing program was saving the lives of roughly The paper presenting the results of this with respect to the use of auctions for de- 20-25 thousand Americans, chiefly milk- study is scheduled to appear in the Ameri- cision making by both firms and govern- consuming children, per year by 1940. can Economic Review this December. ments. Additional information about De- In a related paper “The Tuberculosis Rhode and Strumpf are also working partment research activity can be found in Cattle Trust,” they explore the problems together on an article exploring the existence the International Focus section of the existing before the eradication program. In and size of markets for wagering on U. S. Newsletter. particular, they examine the market fail- presidential elections in the period between Much of the research which takes place ures and associated regulatory responses. the Civil War and the Second World War. in the Department is dependent upon out- Further work will examine the introduc- As evidence of the high level of activity, side grants and endowments from presti- tion and spread of pasteurization technolo- they document that some $165 million (in gious organizations as well as from private gies across US cities in the early 20th cen- 2002 dollars) was wagered in one election contributions to the Department Trust tury. and betting activity at times dominated fund through the College of Arts and These studies are part of a larger project transactions in the New York financial Sciences.As always, we express our ap- emphasizing the importance of biological markets. The so-called Wall Street betting preciation to all of you whose contribu- learning in US agricultural development in odds proved remarkably accurate in picking tions to the Department have supported the period before the Second World War. the election winner in a period before there these efforts by helping fund research as- One of the recent Olmstead-Rhode papers were any scientific polls. In only one case sistants, the acquisition of important and in this project won the Economic History did the candidate favored in the betting expensive data sets, computer facilities and Association’s Arthur H. Cole Prize for the markets in early October lose on Election faculty travel to professional conferences outstanding article of 2002/03, and a sec- Day. This historical experience has current and meetings. For more specific informa- ond was cited as the runner up in the com- policy relevance for understanding how tion about Department research needs and petition. prediction markets, such as the recently funding, please contact Professor John Over the last few months, Rhode has proposed and controversial terrorism Akin, Chair, at 919-966-2385 or been working to complete the late Robert futures market would perform in practice. [email protected]. Gallman’s book on the US Capital Stock. Rhode and Strumpf find election betting He has completed a draft of a paper bring- flourished for 75 years before the Second ing Gallman’s annual product estimates out World War without seriously threatening The Eclectic Historian of the underground. (NBER WP 8860, the Republic. “Gallman’s Annual Output Series for the A third research area that Rhode is ac- Although Paul Rhode United States, 1834-1909”), and is cur- tive in is the new field of evolutionary game specializes in economic rently drafting a paper on Gallman’s con- theory, in collaboration with former UNC- history he writes on a sumer durable estimates. Chapel Hill colleague Mark Stegeman. wide range of diverse top- In another avenue of research Rhode has They recently had their paper “Stochastic ics, working with several been workding with colleague Professor Darwinian Equilibria in Small and Large co-authors. An indica- Koleman Strumpf on a number of projects. Populations” accepted at Games and Eco- tion of his wide array of They have just completed a project that nomic Behavior.

Page 2 -- Economics at Carolina Globalization, Textiles and data analysis. This approach permits us tistical analysis. to identify both industry-level compo- The research findings to date suggest that North Carolina nents that heighten globalization pressures there are two ways forward, depending on on the US textiles and apparel industries, firm size, and one way back for firms in the Professor and firm-level choices in North Carolina textile industry. Small firms, without the Patrick Conway that have turned those potential losses into resources to diversify, will face an expen- and Professor Al opportunity. This will enable us to iden- sive road ahead: either accept a new role in Field, along with tify the characteristics of those plants in the industry as residual supplier (i.e., short Professor Robert which labor fared best, and worst, in the runs on short notice to fill gaps in invento- Connally in the industrial response to globalization. A ries) or invest in innovation to create a stable UNC Kenan-Flagler School of Business and more broadly based statewide electronic niche product or process. The new phi- Dr. Douglas Longman of Chapel Hill, have survey will be on line by December pro- losophy cannot be, “if you spin it, they initiated a research project examining re- viding additional information for the sta- will come.” Large firms, with resources to cent changes in the textile industry in re- sponse to the changing global environment. One dimension of globalization is increas- ingly contested international markets due to falling price and non-price barriers to trade in goods and services. The textile 10 Lessons From The Textile Experience industry in particular is cited as an example of the dangers of globalization to US firms, Lesson 1. What comes around goes try, many buyers of existing textile compa- workers and communities. Globalization is around. The recent shift of production nies have been too optimistic about the po- a two-edged sword, and has introduced both from North Carolina to Mexico, the Car- tential earnings of their new acquisition, opportunity and loss into the US textile ibbean Basin, South-East Asia and China paid too high an acquisition price and suf- industry. While there have been aggregate has been in response to basic market fered substantial financial losses. declines in activity in this industry since forces. For the skills now required in tex- Lesson 6. Wal-Mart changes every- 1982, these declines have not been felt uni- tiles production, US labor receives higher thing. The retailing revolution led by Wal- formly throughout the industry. There have relative compensation than does labor in Mart, and joined by other major retailers has changed the dynamics of contracting in been opportunities from globalization that these other countries. Lesson 2. The textiles sector in the the apparel and textile sectors. It has influ- individual firms and communities have ex- US has been losing jobs for 50 years. While enced both the nature of the product pur- ploited to their advantage. job losses in textiles have been very evi- chase process and the role of the supplier in The economic and social manifestations dent in recent years, textiles employment product display and inventory control. of globalization demand detailed research, has been falling since 1950. Employment Lesson 7. Foreign producers are for- especially in light of the phased-in expira- fell even as output continued to increase midable competitors. China is only the most tion of the Agreement on Textiles and Cloth- during much of that time due to techno- recent international competitor for the tex- ing by 2005 and the expected debates re- logical improvements in the sector. Add- tiles industry. In previous waves Japan, then the Four Tigers, then Mexico and the Car- garding the appropriate policy response to ing labor-saving machines and employing increasingly skilled labor has resulted in ibbean Basin became viable sources of tex- globalization. The debate on textiles and higher productivity and wages. tiles for the US market. In periods of apparel foreshadows a broader debate on Lesson 3. Efficiency is important. The industry downturn, foreign suppliers appear the future of many manufacturing sectors textiles industry in North Carolina has been to have maintained their market niche while in the US. The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation characterized from its beginning by churn- demand for US made products was cut back. provided a seed grant to begin research on ing. Between 1975 and 2000, the number Lesson 8. The removal of quotas un- the opportunities and pitfalls of interna- of plants in operation was reduced by 18 der the ATC is not the end of protection for tional trade for the textiles industry in the percent, but of those plants in operation domestic industry. Quotas on all textile im- ports will be phased out by 2005 if legisla- US, and work began in the spring of 2003. in 2000, only 29 percent were in opera- tion under the same management in 1975. tion follows the timetable within the WTO Because North Carolina provides a micro- Lesson 4. Efficiency isn’t enough. In framework in 1995. However, protection cosm of the opportunities and dangers from the past a low-cost textile supplier was will likely remain relatively high in the form globalization in the textiles industry, this able to stay in business supplying yarn or of ad valorem tariffs. research has focused on the firms and work- cloth to US-based apparel producers be- Lesson 9. Successful firms see beyond ers in North Carolina. While most analy- cause of the lower transport cost when the production floor. The successful tex- ses of the impact of globalization are un- compared to foreign suppliers. These days, tiles firms in the current economic envi- dertaken through data analysis of aggregate the apparel business is in large-part off- ronment are those that recognize their place in the supply channel and work with up- statistics at the national level, we believe shore and the foreign textile supplier now has the transportation cost advantage. US stream and downstream firms to ensure a that the challenges of globalization are best firms must now focus on marketing to seamless hand-over of product. understood through multifaceted examina- downstream producers as well as the con- Lesson 10. In a competitive world, ac- tion of specific industries, and specific firms sumer market. cess to financing can be a formidable ad- within industries. Thus, case studies of Lesson 5. The “Winners Curse” vantage. In recent years financing for take- North Carolina firms, interviews leaves large textiles firms at a disadvan- overs (acquisition capital) has been a con- (businesspeople, workers, unions and gov- tage. The “Winners Curse” is a notion tributor to some of the most publicized busi- ernment officials) and plant-level analysis coming out of the theory of auctions (like ness failures, while the absence of finance for daily operations (working capital) has of Census of Manufactures data for North eBay), which suggests the winner is cursed because she almost certainly paid too much led to many of the unpublicized shutdowns. Carolina firms have been incorporated in to win the auction. In the textiles indus- the study along with the typical aggregate

Economics at Carolina -- Page 3 diversify, will also face an expensive road holds any substantial promise for dealing the 1990s: the Long-Run Perspective," ahead, albeit with different branches. The with current industry adjustment problems, which has been organized by Professors Paul possibility of becoming a residual supplier and that such a back-to-the-future approach Rhode (UNC) and Gianni Toniolo (Duke). is precluded by their size (As, one executive will be very costly for the industry and the The conference, involving 40 scholars from told us, “We’re too big to become a niche country. The long-run consequences of around the world, draws its motivation from player.”), and the old production style is no competition, whether from domestic or the conviction that economic history can longer a viable road. These firms must not foreign-owned companies, are very positive, make a fundamental contribution to a better only integrate US production into an inter- and inhibiting the adjustments occasioned understanding of a number of key issues of national supply structure playing on both by competition should be undertaken with the 1990s by placing that period in historical domestic and foreign strengths, but also de- great caution. There is fairly clear evidence perspective. Issues of key interest to be velop services valuable to upstream suppli- that competition in well-functioning markets addressed include causes and sustainability ers and downstream users. Because of the produces stronger companies, better of productivity growth in the U.S., the loss of the down-stream US-based apparel products, and great benefits to consumers, sluggish growth in Europe and stagnation in industry, the textile producers must forge principally through lower prices. In the Japan, the bubble in financial prices and its new links to downstream producers, rely- end, it is better to bet on improved labor impact on the real sector, the financial ing on product innovation as a way of forg- skills, new technologies, and industry and instability in the periphery, and the effects ing those links. firm flexibility to respond effectively to the of trade and factor mobility on the global The research results strongly suggest that changing business environment than to adopt distribution of income. For information the future of the US textile industry lies in increased trade barriers to prop up the contact [email protected]. reinvention. Some of this reinvention may current industry structure. The Robert Gallman Graduate Student involve new products and processes, but Fund was established to honor the memory much will rely on the development of new of a man who devoted his life to his discipline skills and business models in the industry. Robert Gallman Lecture and as teacher, mentor and research scholar. The The business world has changed dramatically Fund is used to improve the competitiveness in the past dozen years, and success, whether Graduate Student Fund of our graduate program by providing in textiles or in other industries, has financial support that helps to attract demanded flexibility and adaptation among This year Professor Paul David, who has outstanding students. We thank all those managers and employees of U.S. companies. a joint appointment at Stanford and Oxford who have generously contributed to this Increased protection is often viewed as a Universities, will give the Gallman Memorial fund and encourage you to consider strategy to deal with increased international Lecture on March 26, 2004. Professor contributing. If you are interested in competition. The authors are skeptical that David's lecture will be the keynote session supporting graduate education, please contact the employment of additional trade barriers in a two day conference on, "Understanding Ms. Kelly Moore at [email protected].

Agent Characteristics, Procurement Auctions and Insurance Models My research focuses on the structural estimation of agents’ characteristics in models of procurement auctions and models of insurance. Both models evaluate the existence of optimal decisions in environments with incomplete information. In procurement auctions the government seeks to find the most cost-efficient firm to implement a contract at minimum government cost when it cannot observe the firms’ preferences and costs. In models of insurance companies seek to screen agents according to their accident/loss probability in order to maximize their profits. I am currently working on a model of first-price sealed bid procurement auctions where bidders differ in their attitudes toward risk and their costs. For example, they may have different experiences in the industry, different asset holdings or different credit ratings any of which may affect their bidding behavior when competing for public contracts. The most socially valuable procurement auction has been shown to depend on the firms’ risk preferences and cost characteristics. Since these are unknown to the auctioneer (often the government), I study the conditions under which one can uncover characteristics, which are central to the decision process. I show that the data from a procurement auction can be used to estimate how both costs and attitudes towards risk differ across the bidders in the auction. Using this information about the auction participants, I can forecast how they would bid under different types of government auction rules. The final objective is to evaluate the efficiency and optimality of different auction rules. Using Department research funds I have purchased a data set, which details firms’ characteristics to help me identify and estimate heterogeneous risk averse and cost distributions. I will use this information to estimate the firms’ cost distribution and thus explain their bidding behavior. The research will help ascertain the efficiency and optimality of the mechanism chosen by the government The estimation of insurance models is more complex. I was puzzled by research findings in the literature on car insurance, which claimed there is no adverse selection, i.e., insurance companies are able to accurately identify high-risk and low-risk clients, so that their premiums reflect the appropriate risk. The data seemed to confirm a few findings in the literature about models both with and without adverse selection. However, I was not able to isolate the type of the agent’s preferences and accident probability (called the primitives of the model), which would help evaluate the contract’s performance in distinguishing between risk factors. To estimate such key elements, it will be necessary to look for a more complete model of insurance decision-making. I am searching for a model and am currently considering using a model developed by my colleagues, Gary Biglaiser and Claudio Mezzetti, where insurance companies are treated as oligopolies (or industries with just a few firms) using what is called a Hotelling type model. In this framework firms compete with price competition for customers in the same pool of consumers when each of the customers may exhibit different characteristics but can contract with only one firm. I anticipate that I will find that the insurance market does not generate an optimal social outcome because companies suffer from the fact that the accident probability is unknown for new drivers. Sandra Campo

Page 4 -- Economics at Carolina FOCUS: The Economics Department in the World

The Department has been actively in- School of Public Health, and Economics smoker does not seem to be strongly de- volved in international activity for many graduate students, Peter Lance and Albert terred by higher cigarette prices. years in many different ways. This year Loh. The project (and a previous 4 year At least two more surveys of these the newsletter is going to focus on a num- NIH project to which it is a follow-up) has Chinese households are planned (and ber of the various projects, work and pro- already funded by NIH) and analysis of fessional interactions that our faculty have health care use and health outcomes of the been recently involved in throughout the population will continue. A proposal for world. Inasmuch as this dimension of fac- continued funding of the health analyses ulty involvement often goes unnoticed, we by NIH is under preparation. hope you will find it both interesting and informative. We feel that the many and different ways the faculty are involving MEASURE Evaluation themselves in the ever-shrinking global en- Project vironment helps bring world issues into the classroom in a real and practical manner, For the past twelve contributes to graduate student develop- years Professor David ment through hands-on research experience, already produced papers on health care us- Guilkey has played a and fosters an awareness and involvement age by different population and income key role in the develop- in important global issues facing the state, groups, changing patterns of health insur- ment and management our nation and the world. ance availability and coverage, changes in of a very important the income of individuals and groups of the program in the Carolina Health in China population (an important factor in insur- Population Center, ance purchase and use of health care), avail- which focuses on the evaluation of for- eign aid projects. The University, the Since 1988, Professor John Akin has Carolina Population Center (CPC), and been one of the principal investigators of a the Department of Economics received project collecting and analyzing continuing some extremely good news last month rounds of survey data (approximately ev- when the United States Agency for Inter- national Development (USAID) made the following announcement: “We are pleased to announce the award of MEASURE Evaluation, Phase II to the Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, and their cooperating partners, the Futures Group International ability of health services in specific geo- Inc., John Snow Inc., Macro International, graphic areas and for specific population and Tulane University School of Public groups, and smoking behavior and its de- Health and Tropical Medicine. This coop- terminants. Among the many interesting erative agreement, for 5 years (9/30/03_9/ findings of the research are that in recent 29/08) and $70 million, will work world- ery 3 years the same households are sur- years insurance coverage in China actually wide.” veyed) in the Peoples Republic of China. seems to have improved for the poorest Key staff for the project are: Sian The project has been funded largely by the groups and that the decision to become a Curtis, Project Director; Gustavo Angeles U. S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Philip Setel, Deputy Directors; and and the Government of China. In China, Scott Moreland (Futures Group), Demand the Chinese Center for Disease Control and and Data Utilization Specialist. All key Prevention (CDC) has been the project part- staff will be co-located at the UNC ner and carried out the interviews and other headquarters offices in Chapel Hill. survey work. Phase II will build on a tradition of Dr. Akin is the principal investigator of leadership in collection, analysis, and use a four year NIH project to analyze the data of reliable demographic and health data on health care use, health care finance, and for monitoring, and evaluating health pro- illness patterns. Working with him are co- grams. While continuing to address ongo- investigators, Professor Will Dow from the ing monitoring and evaluation challenges UNC Economics Department and the across all five BGH strategic objectives,

Economics at Carolina -- Page 5 Phase II activities will place greater empha- as an Economics Department graduate stu- worked directly on the project received valu- sis on understanding data needs, generating dent, wrote his dissertation using data gen- able training in research methods. Many strategic demand for data and ensuring ap- erated by the project, and is now a faculty other graduate students also benefited from propriate utilization of data for policy for- member in the Department of Maternal and the project because Guilkey has used the mulation and program decision making. Child Health at UNC-CH. Prof. Tom Mroz data sets in his graduate courses both as ex- Fulfillment of this goal will be achieved has also been involved in the EVALUATION amples of how to conduct program evalua- through the implementation of a continuum Project since its inception and has played tions and also as the data for problem sets. of data demand generation, collection, dis- key roles in projects in Tanzania, Peru and Guilkey has also used the data sets in Eco- semination, and use supported by strong Indonesia. Prof. John Akin directed projects nomics 70, the Department undergraduate coordination, collaboration, and capacity in the Philippines and Uganda that have lead statistics course, both for in-class examples building. Some specific innovations in Phase to practical advice to USAID as well as pub- and also for homework assignments. Just II will include: development of data user lications in peer reviewed journals. Finally, this past year, an undergraduate student mapping tools and demand and data use pro- Prof. John Stewart took the lead in a series wrote an outstanding honors thesis using files, country and global data use calendars, of projects that developed methodologies the 1999 round of the data set to study the increased emphasis on routine health infor- for measuring total program costs so that effects of communications programs on con- mation systems and emerging data collec- projects could be compared in terms of cost traceptive use. tion options such as sample vital registra- effectiveness andProf. Brad Schwartz It is clear that this partnership between tion, integrated longitudinal data collection played a key role in one of the EVALUA- UNC-CH and USAID had been beneficial systems, and PLACE (Priorities for Local TION projects that dealt with the impact of to both sides. It has provided USAID with AIDS Control Efforts), and development of decentralization of the health care system in rigorous and unbiased evaluations of its in- tools to facilitate use of data such as PIMS the Philippines. ternational population and health programs (Performance Information Management Sys- An excellent example of how this series and has trained many at USAID and at its tems), DSS (Decision Support Systems) and of projects has benefited both the univer- international partners in proper research GIS Toolkits for spatial analysis. Phase II sity and USAID is the work done by Guilkey methods. UNC-CH has received the ben- will also include a greatly expanded capac- and colleagues in Tanzania. In 1991, USAID efit of a large, stable source of funds that has ity building agenda including new strategies began a ten year project designed to help the allowed it to gather important data sets and for institutional capacity strengthening. government of Tanzania lower its extremely conduct cutting-edge research. We feel con- This $70 million project is the largest high fertility rate. The project had three fident that the partnership will continue to grant in the social sciences that has ever been main components: logistical support to make be productive in Phase II of the MEASURE received by the University and continues sure that contraceptives were available in Project. work that started 12 years ago with the award health facilities, training of health care pro- of the EVALUATION Project to CPC. Prior viders so that they could properly assist to the decision to bid on the EVALUATION clients, and an education component to in- Project, there was a great deal of debate about form individuals about the benefits of smaller Russian Reforms and the Im- whether this type of contract research was family sizes. Prior to Guilkey’s involve- pact on the People in the best interests of the University. Many ment, USAID’s strategy for the evaluation felt that USAID requirements for technical of USAID projects simply involved observ- assistance for its overseas missions and the ing changes in contraceptive use and fertil- Professor Tom Mroz is actively involved need for fast evaluations would be incom- ity over time after the start of the projects, in research focused on evaluating how re- patible with the University’s mission to using population based surveys. However, cent structural and produce first-class research aimed at peer this evaluation strategy was flawed because economic changes reviewed journals. However, during the 6 while it observed the changes which occurred have affected the years of the EVALUATION Project and the after a project began, it had no means of Russian people. 6 years of Phase I of the MEASURE Evalu- determining whether the changes were During the 1990s, ation project that followed, this did not prove caused by the project and its activities. To the Russian Repub- to be the case as many UNC-CH faculty correct this problem, a series of facility sur- lic introduced have carried out cutting edge research while veys were designed under the EVALUA- sweeping reforms providing state-of-the-art technical assis- TION Project and continued under the in the structure of tance to USAID and its missions all over MEASURE Evaluation Project. These sur- its urban and rural the world. veys allowed researchers to form a direct economic sectors, its social sector programs, Faculty and graduate students in the Eco- link between changes in the country and and the financial accountability of its state nomics Department have played a very im- program activities. and service sector organizations. Price liber- portant role in these two earlier projects and The design and implementation of these alization and the privatization of state en- will continue to play important roles in the facility surveys kept many generations of terprises have been cornerstones of these new project. David Guilkey has been a cen- Economics Department graduates students reforms. While allowing currency exchange tral figure in the development of this activ- employed and led to data sets that several rates to fluctuate, the Russian Republic has ity over the years having served as deputy used on their dissertations. In addition to undertaken the difficult process of com- director of the EVALUATION Project and providing the proof that USAID needed to pletely reforming the structure of the then as senior technical advisor in the MEA- demonstrate that a project was indeed hav- economy. The complexity of this undertak- SURE Evaluation project. He will continue ing an impact on contraceptive use and fer- ing ensures tremendous spatial and tempo- to serve as senior technical advisor in Phase tility, research funded by the project resulted ral variability in implementation. In many II. Gustavo Angeles, the deputy director in publications in leading economics jour- sectors of society, rapid changes in produc- for Phase II, started working on the project nals. In addition, graduate students who tivity have resulted in significant changes in

Page 6 -- Economics at Carolina income, food supply, and the birth rate, as changing economic and health conditions of since 1998. With financing through a World well as in disease patterns and health ser- the Russian population, visit http:// Bank grant, the performance of these districts vice utilization. Changes have created chal- www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/rlms/. depending on private providers is being lenges for health, nutrition, family planning, compared to government provision of health and other social sector activities. Income services. Early results indicate that not only disparities have increased, but they vary Primary Health Care in South- do the contracted districts out-perform the greatly from region to region. Moreover, the government districts in terms of population current low fertility rate exacerbates the fi- east Asia served, but also that they provide a more nancial problems associated with Russia’s equitable distribution of services. (i.e., the aging population inevitably increasing the With funding from The World Bank, less-wealthy and the wealthy are treated demand for long term care and consequently Asian Development Bank, and USAID, Pro- more equally in the contracted services placing the social security system in crisis. fessor Brad Schwartz districts.) In short, the structural economic adjustments has been looking at effi- Similarly, in Laos and Viet Nam, Schwartz that Russia has been experiencing place a ciency and equity of al- has helped in the design of Asian tremendous strain on all facets of the ternative systems for Development Bank projects to develop economy, including the health care system, delivering primary primary health care systems in far-flung rural the public education system, and the provi- health care services in areas. In the Philippines, the USAID/ sion of labor services. Russia is responding Cambodia, Laos, Viet Measure Project provided funding for to these problems by continuing to readjust Nam and the Philip- Schwartz and David Guilkey to collaborate its reform policies. pines. with colleagues at the University of the When the extensive economic reforms In Cambodia, non-government Philippines to examine the efficiency and started in early 1992, there was almost no organizations (NGOs) like Save the Children equity effects of the decentralization of information available to policy makers and have been contracted by the Government to government provided health care services researchers for studying how the Russian deliver basic health care services (e.g., child from the central government to provinces population was being affected by the dra- immunization, pre-natal care, and well-baby and municipalities. matically changing social and economic con- care) in several large remote rural districts ditions. The Russia Longitudinal Monitor- ing Survey (RLMS) was designed to fill this gap under the leadership of Barry Popkin Population Studies in South-East Asia (Professor of Nutrition and Adjunct Profes- sor of Economics). In addition, Professor Mroz has spearheaded the data analysis Professor John Stewart is currently working on a large work for the RLMS since its inception. The multi-year project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates RLMS is a household based survey designed Foundation and undertaken by the International Vaccine to measure the effects of Russian reforms Institute (IVI) in Seoul Korea. Professor Stewart’s role on the economic well-being of households in the DOMI Project (Diseases of the Most Impover- and individuals. The effects of the reforms ished) relates to the estimation of the magnitude of pub- are measured by a variety of means: detailed licly borne health care costs that could be saved by vac- monitoring of individuals’ health status and cinating the populations against typhoid and cholera in dietary intake; precise measurement of seven Asian countries. Estimation of the private cost of household level incomes, expenditures, and illness for these diseases and of the cost of vaccinations is a key element of the service utilization; and collection of relevant analysis. The project includes monitoring projects by tracking cases and costs community level data, including region spe- over several years for samples of the population living in China, Vietnam, cific prices and community infrastructure Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Vaccine trials and vacci- data. Data have been collected eleven times nation demonstration projects are also carefully analyzed. During the past since 1992. The RLMS is the most widely year Stewart was in Thailand and Vietnam working on the treatment cost used set of survey data collected in Russia. portion of the study and expects to return to Asia several times over the next RLMS survey instruments were de- year to visit project sites and assist the projects’ local research teams. His signed by an interdisciplinary group of Rus- work in Seoul has allowed him to keep in contact with and enjoy the warm sian and American social science and bio- hospitality of former doctoral students who returned home to Korea after medical researchers with extensive experi- completion of their graduate work at Carolina. ence in survey research. Particular care was Over the last several years Professor Stewart has also participated in the taken to collect data that would allow one to MEASURE Evaluation project funded by the United States Agency for Inter- answer policy relevant questions concern- national Development and housed in the Carolina Population Center. With co- ing the design and impact of programs and author Eric R. Jensen he analyzed the characteristics of health care facilities policies affecting a wide range of social sec- which seem to attract users. The analysis used data that had been gathered in tor outcomes. The survey is also designed the Philippines under a Rockefeller Foundation grant obtained by Professors to allow supplementary modules of ques- Stewart and Guilkey. In related work, he and co-authors Dominic J. Mancini tions not asked every year to be included and Guy Stecklov used data collected by the MEASURE Project in five coun- from round to round. Data from this survey tries in West Africa to study the factors contributing to successful family are available to researchers through anony- planning programs. mous FTP. For more information about the survey and summary reports about the

Economics at Carolina -- Page 7 Health Systems in Sri Lanka

During June 2003, Professor John Akin participated in a World Bank mission to Sri Lanka. Having collected and analyzed a survey data set in that island nation in 1992 for the Government of Sri Lanka under World Bank sponsorship, his expertise on the Sri Lanka health system, its operation and its finance is recognized throughout the world. Before and during the mission, Dr. Akin worked with World Bank and Sri Lanka government personnel on plans for both short-term and long-term reforms to the Sri Lanka health system. It is likely that more survey work in Sri Lanka will be scheduled to better identify the present problems with the health system’s organization and to determine the best strategy for alleviating them. Information for the parts of the country that have largely been without formal government during the over 20 year rebellion in the north and east of Sri Lanka is especially needed. Dr. Akin likely will be working with the World Bank and Government of Sri Lanka to design and organize both the survey project and the later reform efforts. After his return to UNC, Professor Akin worked with Professor Paul Hutchinson of Tulane University, a recent Ph.D. graduate of the UNC Economics Department, to produce a key background document on the Sri Lanka health care system based on the data from the earlier 1992 Sri Lanka survey. Akin and Hutchinson’s report analyzed the impacts of the health system and its financing on different income groups, especially the poor. The report will serve as an important starting point for the upcoming reform effort in the country which is being undertaken by the Sri Lanka government in cooperation with the World Bank.

Other International Activity currently spending the year in Paris at the Teaching in Mexico City Institute National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economique (INSEE), under the In addition to these professional activi- sponsorship of a W. R. Kenan, Jr. leave. He Professor Al Field conducted a week- ties, several members of the faculty have is working on two ongoing projects, “Sav- long workshop on Globalization and Com- been involved with academic institutions ing and Retirement in a Life Cycle Model” petitiveness for professors from various throughout the world in more traditional and “Family Structure Dynamics and Child campuses of Monterrey Technical Institute ways. Professor Gary Biglaiser spent Outcomes,” joint with Wilbert van der in June 2003. The workshop took place on Spring Semester at the University of Klaauw. He also plans to begin a study the campus of the newest branch of Toulouse in Toulouse, analyzing the labor market Monterrey Tech in Santa Fe, a suburb of France, working with col- for older workers in the U.S. Mexico City. leagues while on a Depart- and France in collaboration ment Research and Study with several French econo- leave. Professor Wilbert mists. In addition, Blau will Teaching in China van der Klaauw also be giving a short course in spent spring semester March, at the university af- Professor Steven abroad as Visiting Profes- filiated with INSEE, on dy- Rosefielde has been in- sor at the Institute for So- namic structural models of volved in teaching and cial and Economic Re- retirement. He is also sched- research in Japan and search at the University uled to give talks in the next China in recent years. of Essex in England. Van few months at UCL in Lon- In Spring 2003 he was der Klaauw is also a fel- don, the University of visiting professor at the low at the Centre of Household, Income, Amsterdam, and IZA in Bonn, Germany. Johns Hopkins Nanjing Labour and Demographic Economics Professor Eric Ghysels continues as a Fel- Center, Nanjing, China, (CHILD) at the University of Turin, as well low of the Center for Interuniversity Re- where he taught com- as a Fellow at the International Centre for search in the Analysis of Organizations parative economic systems, and international Economic Research (ICER), both in Turin, (CIRANO) in Montreal, Canada, and is also security. While there he completed Prodigal Italy. Professor Claudio Mezzetti has an extramural Fellow at CENTER at Tilburg Superpower: Russia’s Re-emerging Future, spent several recent summers working with University in the Netherlands. Both ap- Cambridge UP, 2004, and began Russian colleagues at various universities in Italy. pointments involve regular visits and pro- Economics From Lenin to Putin, This spring he plans to use his W. N. fessional collaborations. Finally, Professors (Blackwell, 2004), as a sequel to Compara- Reynolds leave in Florence, Italy, working Patrick Conway and Stanley Black have tive Economic Systems: Culture, Wealth and with colleagues at the European University continued working on projects with the IMF Power the 21st Century (Blackwell, 2003; Institute (EUI). Professor David Blau is and the World Bank. Russian language edition Rospen, 2003).

Page 8 -- Economics at Carolina Faculty and Staff Notes

Recent Personnel Activity Growth in American Wheat, 1800-94”) was In Remembrance awarded second place in the same competition. This accomplishment is Gwen Appleyard, wife of Professor Professor David Blau received a UNC unprecedented in the history of this award. Emeritus Dennis R. Appleyard, passed W. R. Kenan, Jr. leave for Fall 2003. He is Rhode was also elected to the Board of away this past Labor Day weekend. The spending the year visiting at the Institute Trustees of the Cliometrics Society for four Appleyards have been living in Davidson, Nacionale de la Statistique et des Etudes years starting in June 2003. NC, the past ten years where he is serving as Economique in Paris, France. Other news about recent personnel the James B. Duke Professor of International Professor William (Sandy) Darity was activity can be found in the International Studies. He is also the current Department awarded the Kenneth G. Elzinga Focus section of the Newsletter. Chair. Distinguished Teaching award for 2003 by the Southern Economic Association. Professors Richard Froyen, Tom Mroz, Awesome Instruction Steven Rosefielde and Koleman Strumpf received one-semester research and study We are proud of the high quality of contributing to student learning both inside leaves during 2003-2004. Department teaching at both the graduate and outside the classroom. Students from Professor Ronald Gallant retired and undergraduate levels. This past year his Econ 10 class nominated Rouben. effective April 1, 2003. Professor Gallant was notable in that we had two individuals A voting process organized by still maintains an office and research who received University-wide awards as members of the Undergraduate Economics presence in the Department as Professor well as four who received Department Club and the Economics Graduate Student Emeritus. awards for outstanding performance in the Association selected the Department Professor David Guilkey was classroom. teaching award winners. These awards appointed Cary C. Boshamer Professor of At the University level, Professor were presented at the annual Department Economics, effective July 1, 2003. This Boone Turchi was awarded a Tanner Spring Reception at the end of the school University Distinguished Chair was awarded award for Excellence in Undergraduate year. Professor Boone Turchi won the to Professor Guilkey for his many Teaching, and one of our graduate Department of Economics Excellence in contributions to research and to the mission students, Undergraduate Teaching award, and of the University in both service and teaching, Katherine Professor Patrick Conway received the particularly at the graduate level. Theyson was Department Jae-Yeong Song and Chunuk Professor Claudio Mezzetti received a awarded a Park Award for Graduate Teaching. W.N. Reynolds leave for Spring 2004. Tanner Claudio intends to spend his leave at the Graduate European University Institute in Florence, Teaching Italy. Assistant Dean James Murphy served as Award for Excellence in Undergraduate President of the North American Teaching. The recipients of the Association of University Summer Sessions University-wide awards were presented and chaired the annual meeting in Novermber to the Carolina Community in the Dean 2002. Dome at halftime of a home basketball The Department has recently hired game, a fitting locale for Professor Turchi Yaraslau Zayats won the Vijay Professor Eric Renault to fill the Latan‚ who can always be found in the stands of Bhagavan Award for the best Econ 10 Chair in Econometrics previously held by a home game. Professor Gallant. Professor Renault will Another of our join the Department July 1, 2004. graduate Professor Paul Rhode and his co-author students, Alan Olmstead received the 2002-2003 Rouben Atoian, Arthur H. Cole Prize for the best article received the published in the Journal of Economic Edward Kidder History (“Hog Round Marketing, Graham Award Mongrelized Seed, and Government Policy: that is presented Institutional Changes in U.S. Cotton to a professor, Production, 1920-60”). Of special note is TA, or instructor teaching assistant. Katherine Theyson that a second article of theirs (“The Red who has made a significant impact on won the Economics Department Best Queen and the Hard Reds: Productivity undergraduate studies at UNC-CH by Teaching Assistant Award.

Economics at Carolina -- Page 9 Graduate Alumni News

The Department welcomed 17 new students this fall. The class includes students from the United States, Thailand, Indonesia, 2003 - 2004 Entering Class China, Bangladesh, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Turkey. We are pleased to welcome several NC natives, as well as Michael Aguilar...... New York University graduates of Davidson College, Duke Natta Akapaiboon ...... Chulalongkorn University University, UNC-Greensboro, UNC- Berna Akin ...... UNC-Chapel Hill Charlotte, and UNC-Chapel Hill. Kristie Briggs ...... American University Applications to economic programs have David Buehler ...... Davidson College been increasing nationwide, and for fall 2003 Xilong Chen ...... Tsinghua University we received over 400 applications. Several Ryan Goodstein...... James Madison University of our graduates, including Tyler Bowles Tod Hamilton ...... UNC-Greensboro (Utah State), Tom Xu (Texas Tech), Mark Holmes (East Carolina University), Hakan Mark Jensen ...... Virginia Tech Berument (Bilkent University) and others, Bomani Jones ...... Claremont Graduate University have recommended excellent students to our David Jones ...... Duke University program. We have a long tradition of our Tia Palermo ...... SUNY-Geneseo alums helping us recruit new students and Amos Peters ...... University of Toronto we appreciate your efforts. Wahyu Pratomo ...... Yale University The first year students take micro, macro, Syed Saad ...... UNC-Chapel Hill and econometrics classes during both semes- David Schimizzi ...... UNC-Chapel Hill ters. Before classes began in August, Pro- Russell Triplett ...... UNC-Chapel Hill fessor Mezzetti put the new students through a fast-paced “Math Boot Camp.” As you might expect, he worked them hard and they were ready for the fall semester.

We are very pleased to congratulate the Graduate Degree Recipients and Job Market Placements students who received degrees since the last Ph.D. Recipients newsletter. Five students received Master’s degrees and seven students received Ph.D. Lara Bryant, Florida Atlantic University, “The Effects of State Medicaid Policies on degrees. the Dynamic Savings Patterns and Long-Term Care Decisions of the Elderly” (Advi- Last May, the University inaugurated a sor: Gilleskie) new doctoral hooding ceremony on the Sat- John Csellak, Campbell University, “The Effects of Wages on Teacher Labor Sup- urday morning before commencement. ply” (Advisor: Mroz) Rather than calling the PhD recipients to Timothy Goodger, Lehman Brothers, “Two Essays on Current Account Dynamics” the stage during the University wide gradu- (Advisor: Black) ation ceremony in Kenan Stadium, the Kenneth Hightower, Federated Investors, “Testing for Structural Change and Graduate School now hosts a separate event. Nonstationarity” (Advisor: Parke) Each PhD graduate receives the hood of the Jae-Young Lim, Hallym University, Chuncheon, Korea, “The Effects of Doctor’s academic regalia from his or her dissertation Payment Method on Patient’s Medical Care Use: Are there Incentives for a Doctor’s advisor. The event last spring was on a beau- Improving Patient’s Asymmetric Information Problem?” (Advisor: Akin) tiful, late spring morning in Polk Place with Haiyong Liu, East Carolina University, “A Migration Study of Mother’s Work, a truly Carolina blue sky. Welfare Participation, and Child Development” (Advisor: Mroz) Jonathan Pingle, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve, “Employment, Migration, and Living Arrangements: Three Essays on Welfare Reform” (Advisor: van der Klaauw) M.S. Recipients

Reid Chisholm (Advisor: Salemi) Jonathan Perry (Advisor: Stewart) Joanne Pais (Advisor: Gilleskie) Yuhua Su (Advisor: Froyen) Joseph Polka (Advisor: Conway)

Page 10 -- Economics at Carolina Early Graduate Education Throughout the 1860s and 1870s, the Ph.D. For Venable, whose own scholarly University struggled through the Civil War investigations led to the development of the at UNC and its aftermath. Shortly before the begin- Bunsen burner and the discovery of calcium by Helen Tauchen ning of the Civil War, only Yale University carbide, original research occupied a place had higher student enrollment than Caro- of unparalleled importance. lina. By 1862 enrollments had fallen, and To Venable’s dismay, the University’s th This year marks the 100 anniversary of only 24 students were in the Carolina senior growing graduate program suffered from in- the Graduate School at the University of class. The University remained open dur- effective organization and limited resources. North Carolina. The following summary of ing the Civil War, but the scarcity of stu- The process of applying for an advanced the early years of graduate education at UNC dents, funds and political support forced it degree was both laborious and inefficient is from a book commissioned by the Gradu- to close its doors in 1871. since the University required that the entire ate School in celebration of its Centennial. From the time the University reopened faculty supervise and approve a candidate’s (Laura Micheletti Puaca, Pioneer to Power- in 1875 until the beginning of the twentieth work. (And you thought getting a commit- house: The History of Graduate Education century was a formative one for Carolina tee of five together was difficult.) When the at Carolina). and for American universities generally. The General Assembly of 1901 finally increased Although the Graduate School was not most significant development was the the University’s appropriation from founded until 1903, the University conferred adoption of the research-centered European, $25,000 to $37,500, Venable set out to graduate degrees much earlier.. Indeed, tra- and particularly German, model of education. strengthen the research faculty. (In today’s dition holds that William Richardson Davie, The opening of Johns Hopkins University dollars, the appropriations increased from one of the founders of the University, es- in 1876 under the direction of a German approximately $540,000 to $800,000.) The tablished a system of graduate study in the educated president marked the beginning of growth in the faculty made it possible to early years of the University. No written contemporary graduate education in the offer courses specifically for graduate stu- evidence exists, and the claim has never been United States. Following Hopkins’ lead, dents. The 1903 Catalogue included a dis- substantiated. Carolina announced its own Ph.D. program tinct new Graduate Department, which was The first recorded evidence of earned, in 1877. That same year the University renamed the Graduate School in 1907. rather than honorary, graduate degree ap- established formal programs leading to the Both the University and the Graduate pears in the 1853 university Catalogue. The Master of Arts and Master of Science. All School have grown immensely since that graduate degree requirements of 150 years three degrees were to be conferred “upon date. In the early 1900s, the University ago bear little resemblance to those of to- rigid examinations on prescribed courses.” enrollment was slightly below 500 with day. The 1853 document includes no men- The first Carolina Ph.D. was awarded in fewer than 30 graduate students. In the fall tion of theses or examinations. Instead stu- 1883 to a graduate student in chemistry. of 2003, total enrollment had grown to nearly dents seeking a Masters degree are directed 26,500 with more than 10,000 students in Despite these notable advances, gradu- to leave the University after the first semes- graduate and professional programs. ter of the senior year in order to “devote ate education at Carolina remained closely themselves entirely to their own special stud- tied to the undergraduate program. Most ies during a period of eighteen months.” A courses open to graduate students carried Reception at AEA Meetings few years later, the university Catalogue the label “for undergraduates and graduates;” states that students could spend a fifth year very few courses were listed “for graduates.” at the University to earn the Masters de- At the beginning of the twentieth century, The Department will host a reception gree. The first confirmed Carolina graduate the new University president, Francis at the AEA meetings on January 4, 2004, degree was a Masters awarded to a history Venable openly recognized the need to dif- from 6:00 pm until 7:30 pm, in the student in 1856. Carolina and other schools ferentiate graduate and undergraduate study. Newport Beach room of the San Diego offered what one graduate student recalled Venable had done his graduate work in Ger- Marriott Hotel and Marina, located at as “a modest form of post-baccalaureate many, and when he arrived in 1881 was the 333 West Harbor Drive. work.” first university faculty member to hold a

Economics at Carolina -- Page 11 Learning at Carolina

Undergraduate Teaching students and by the satisfaction the under- violin teacher, mentoring various youth in graduate TAs take in a job well done. The the Chapel Hill area. “I still enjoy teaching Assistants in Economics 10 Department looks forward to expansion of piano and violin to students in my spare by Ralph Byrns this “Teaching Assistantship for Econom- time. I feel like I’ve come full circle when it ics 10” in its quest to continue to enhance comes to learning and teaching music. I am This year, nine ad- undergraduate education at UNC. able to give back the gift of music that my vanced economics ma- teachers gave me.” jors have helped the Rosaleen Chou - Economics, Rosaleen extended her interests in Department launch a international and financial economics by new teaching/learning Learning and Life after taking Econ 185 (Financial Markets) with initiative in which they Carolina Professor Ralph Byrns and Econ 162 assist in the teaching of By Boone Turchi (Topics in International Economics) with introductory econom- Professor Stanley Black. Upon the ics and earn credit As a senior at Brookwood High School recommendation of Professor Boone Turchi, through Econ 199 under the title, “Teaching in Lawrenceville, GA, she also took Professor John Stewart’s Econ Assistant for Economics 10.” Econ 10 is Rosaleen Chou would no 170 (Econometrics) that same semester. “I our Principles of Economics course, and doubt have been had taken Professor Turchi’s Econ 70 enrolls roughly 2500 students each year. surprised to be told that (Economic Statistics) course in the Spring Learning fundamental concepts is tough sled- her first job after 2002. That semester was the inauguration ding for almost all beginning economics stu- graduating from UNC in of the Department’s new emphasis on dents, in part because students learn in August 2003 would be getting undergraduate majors up and running myriad different ways. The early success of assisting economists at on a professional-level statistical program. these new undergraduate TAs in helping in- Research Triangle We purchased the Stata program, loaded it troduce younger UNC students to econom- Institute in their studies of smoking and on to our CCI notebook computers and ics has been gratifying, and our majors are tobacco use. In fact, she might have been began learning the ins and outs of this very simultaneously learning a lot of economics surprised to learn that she had graduated powerful program. I enjoyed the course, so in the process. from UNC at all, since she spent her I was quite amenable to continuing in Econ Even after we initially get a handle on an freshman college year at the University of 170.” In that course, she expanded her Stata economic concept, we understand the con- Cincinnati’s Conservatory of Music as a skills and got to write a term paper using cept in only a limited way--complete mas- violin performance major. Early in that year Stata. “I actually got the idea for my term tery of any complex subject is a lifelong pro- she realized that the part of music that she paper topic while working in the library. It cess. Every instructor knows we learn more liked best was teaching and mentoring young involved using regression analysis to try to about our own discipline when we teach, music students, something that she could explain variations in book checkout rates.” because the language and examples that ini- do without having to devote the rest of her While talking to Professor Turchi, for tially helped us grasp certain concepts may career to being a violinist in an orchestra. whom she was working as a research not be readily comprehensible to many of Thinking back to economics courses assistant, Rosaleen mentioned that she was our students. Dedicated teachers are forced taught by her favorite teacher in high school, thinking about applying to law school. “He to consider alternative ways to explain chal- “Doc” O’Neill, Rosaleen decided to transfer sort of said, ‘don’t do it! You’ve been in lenging concepts, and, in so doing, we gain a as a sophomore to UNC where she became school forever; you need to take a break for greater appreciation and mastery of our own an economics major. “My career at UNC a couple of years and try out something disciplines. started off a little differently than most different!’ A short while later he alerted me Undergraduate TAs currently attend all sophomore transfers since I had taken almost about an opening at RTI. I applied and got Econ 10 lectures given by the professors to all of my electives at Cincinnati. When I got my current job.” Rosaleen finished her whom they are assigned, hold office hours to UNC, I had to concentrate on fulfilling coursework in August, 2003, graduating Phi and offer weekly team-taught help sessions, General College and Economics Beta Kappa, and Phi Sigma Pi, and a few and participate in the Department’s Teacher requirements in order to graduate,” Rosaleen days later she found herself as a full-time, Training Program (lead by Professors Pat says. Along the way, Rosaleen began self-supporting member of the labor force. Conway and Michael Salemi), which was studying Chinese with the idea of pursuing In the short time that she’s been at RTI, initiated several years ago to prepare our an international career, perhaps in law or Rosaleen has become involved in a number graduate students as instructors in under- economics. “I had grown up learning of projects. “I’m working in RTI’s Public graduate courses. Attendance by Econ 10 Taiwanese, my parents’ native language, but Health and Economic Policy Research students at the optional help sessions var- I wanted to expand my language capabilities Program for Dr. Matthew Farrelley, an ies from 5 or 6 per session to as many as to encompass the huge opportunities that economist who heads the Smoking and 100. (Predictably, attendance is especially knowing Mandarin affords.” She also Tobacco Use Research Program. He strong in the evenings before major exams.) worked part-time as a student assistant at immediately started me off doing a literature The program’s success is reflected both the UNC Undergraduate Library, and as a search on smoking-cessation strategies and in the gratitude expressed by many Econ 10 geometry tutor, piano teacher and Suzuki writing programs using Stata to finalize the

Page 12 -- Economics at Carolina public use version of the Legacy Media tisan research institution that focuses on of practical skills that should make life easier Tracking Survey and create the codebook public policy issues in the areas of econom- when I am doing my own research. Mind- for the data.” Rosaleen has been surprised ics, governance, and foreign policy. RA’s numbing repetition has had a way of making to see how central her Stata skills are to her are hired by one or two scholars to gather me learn more clever ways to do things with new job. “I think the fact that I was able to and analyze data and literature for various Excel and statistical packages. Besides gain- list Stata as a skill on my résumé, really projects the scholars are working on. In- ing insight into the practice of economics, helped me land the job. I’ve been using it terns work for one or two years and are then Brookings also encourages RA’s to take intensively since I joined RTI.” expected to continue on to graduate or pro- classes to improve their academic background Rosaleen is also involved in studying the fessional school. Brookings hires a group in to be better prepared for graduate school. I marketing of specialty cigarettes, cigarettes March to start the following summer and have been taking one math class each semes- that claim to be safe because they have extra by chance (pay attention graduating se- ter since graduation, but I would encourage low tar and nicotine levels. RTI administers niors!) a large number of positions should economics majors who are considering a cross-sectional questionnaire on adult be opening up this year in Economics. graduate work in economics to get a strong smoking behavior that contains a few It is hard to generalize about what it is math background as an undergraduate to questions about these “safe” products. like to work at Brookings, because the expe- avoid all this cramming! “This project analyzes the marketing of rience depends largely on the scholars that Working in an environment like Brookings these products and assesses its hire you. The scholars you work with de- is a great way to transition into the “real effectiveness.” Rosaleen’s work will be termine the type of projects you work on, world” because it is not very different than included in a presentation by members of your responsibilities, and general quality of starting a new school. When I moved to the Public Health and Economic Policy life. An RA may be involved for an entire Washington I immediately met a cohort of Program at the next American Public Health year working on a scholar’s book or journal people my age with similar interests and Association conference. article, while others RA’s write short litera- ambitions. Fellow RA’s are also valuable Another project involves data from the ture reviews or keep up with statistical re- confidantes: no one else will ever want to New York Employment Health Survey. The leases for scholars who devote their time to talk to you about your problems with SAS data contain interviews as well as biological testifying before Congress or who are writ- do-loops. In sum, I recommend the RA data from 86 non-smoking bartenders, ing short editorial pieces. Some RA’s are program at Brookings to any graduating bowling alley attendants and waitresses in asked to work long hours or weekends, al- senior that is interested in pursuing a career New York City, which recently passed a though if I am discovered in the office after in economics or public policy. tobacco ban on smoking in these public six o’clock I am often told to “get a life.” At places. “Our first round of data comes from the same time, the appeal of the work also the period before the ban was enacted. We varies; while I was mired in analyzing bal- have the first-round data set already and I’ve ance of payments data, I had colleagues done the data preparation and descriptive who were researching more uplifting topics UNDERGRADUATE statistics on it. We measured the cotinine like the economic effects of Happiness. levels in the saliva of our survey respondents I worked for the past year with Barry ACADEMIC AWARDS to get an idea of the effect of second-hand Bosworth and Susan Collins on a paper smoke on them before the ban. We’ll do a called “The Empirics of Growth: An Up- This past year 213 students received follow-up survey after the ban has been in date.” This paper explores conflicting evi- degrees in economics and we currently effect for a while to see if we can document dence in the empirical growth literature about have 600 declared undergraduate first a decline in the effects of second-hand issues such as the importance of capital ac- or second majors, an increase from last smoke.” cumulation and educational gains to growth, year. The quality of our majors con- Rosaleen isn’t yet sure what the future or the ability of growth regressions to ex- tinues to remain high as 17 of our stu- will bring. She plans on working at RTI for plain differences in growth across countries. dents were initiated in Phi Beta Kappa the next two years. “After that, I’ll be in a Since I worked on this paper from down- last year. These new members are great position to assess my future. I really loading the first data to verifying the pub- Kevin M. Carlton, Mary E. Carroll, like being able to step directly from my lished version, I have learned a lot about the Durba Chattara, Kevin D. Cheshire, undergraduate economics major into a job research process. This project required that Kevin T. Crews, Richard A. Goldman that actually uses the skills that I acquired I put together information for 84 countries II, Robert Granada, Clifford T. Hepper, at Carolina. The next couple of years will over forty years, a process that took several Daniel L. Hicks, Suki L. Lehman- allow me to develop research and data months. The more interesting work was Becker, Kassey Q. Maggard, Dana E. analysis skills. After that, it may be off to estimating many different regressions and Messick, Stephen A. Mohr, Douglas law school or graduate school or something exploring different hypotheses. One thing R. Sue, Elizabeth S. Thomasson, Den- I haven’t even considered yet.” that I have learned about research is that nis Paul Vollman, Jr., and Kathleen E. only a fraction of the time you spend on a Wirth. Two graduating seniors received Economist in Training project actually results in something inter- special Department recognition. Eliza- beth Thomasson won the 02-03 Un- by Kristin Wilson esting enough to publish. To me, the most valuable part of work- dergraduate Price in Economics, and Dana Messick won the 02-03 Under- I have been working as a ing as an RA has been seeing how econo- graduate Honors Prize in Economics. research assistant (RA) at mists approach problems. What seemed like In addition, a sizeable group of majors the Brookings Institution in words in a textbook, like “convergence” or were inducted into Omicron Delta Ep- Washington, DC since gradu- “productivity gains,” come to life when silon, the economics honorary. ating from UNC in 2002. these economists use data to apply them to Brookings is a large non-par- current problems. I have also gained a base

Economics at Carolina -- Page 13 Undergraduate Majors

Preparing for Spring 2004 versity since joining the faculty in 1983. has won several Department awards and Conway serves on the UNC Center for received the UNC William C. Friday/Class Teaching and Learning Advisory Commit- of 1986 Award for Excellence in Teaching. It is time to again remind all graduating tee and is one of the faculty directors and He has directed numerous senior honors seniors to check with a College of Arts and teachers in the Economics Teacher Train- theses and Ph.D. dissertations and been Sciences Advisor to make certain that you ing Program, which provides training for active in new course development. will have met all the College requirements graduate student teaching assistants. In ad- ODE is planning an active year, par- by the end of Spring Semester. Also, make dition, he has participated in workshops ticipating in activities of the Economics certain that you know the proper times to teaching learning techniques for the Ameri- Club and selecting the new inductees in apply for graduation permits and any other can Economic Association, the Economic Spring 2004. For more information con- related paperwork related to graduation. Development Institute, the World Bank and tact Katheryn Theyson, President of ODE, You, of course, can make a first pass at this the International Finance Corporation. He at [email protected]. by going to “Degree Audit” at Student Cen- tral at the UNC-CH website. I will be happy to discuss any questions regarding Carolina Economics Club the requirements for the econ major with you. Remember that you have to have at If you haven’t noticed lately, the Economics Club is off to an incredible start this least one “advanced” course, and the ad- year! Our focus is to build a greater sense of community within the department and to vanced offerings this spring include Econ explore the relevance of economics in all aspects of life. Led by a wonderful team of 142, 162, 170 and 185. Those of you who dedicated officers and enthusiastic members, we are quickly growing into one of the are contemplating doing graduate work in most active clubs on campus! economics are directed to the brief note Since the club’s primary service is to students, we started the year by hosting about the importance of having a good several workshops to help those interested in learning more about economics doctoral math background for pursuing this objec- and professional programs, jobs and internships, or other options after graduation. tive. For those in the Senior Honors Pro- For students more concerned about next semester classes, we prepared a registration gram, Econ 98 and 99 count as advanced guide and plan to do the same in spring. courses, but remember you must have eight economics courses to complete the major. In late spring we will send rising seniors with strong academic records invitations to participate in the 2004/2005 Senior Hon- ors Program. If you wish to learn more about the Program, contact the Director of Undergraduate Studies. Omicron Delta Epsilon In another initiative, we’ve been sponsoring a monthly film series to give students Tim Diette, President, and Katheryn opportunities to enjoy a film and discuss it with fellow students. The films become a Theyson, Vice President effectively led vehicle through which economics students can interact with students from other de- Omicron Delta Epsilon (ODE) this past partments and gain an understanding of other perspectives on broader social issues. year. On April 21, 2003, ODE the Eco- By investigating the problems within a societal context, these films remind us that the nomics Honor Society, held its annual in- theories we learn from the classroom in practice involve tradeoffs and can have far- duction ceremony. Less than 10% of our reaching social implications. majors were invited to join. The new stu- Noted health economist Christopher Ruhm kicked off our Speaker Series in Octo- dent inductees are Christoffer Aasa, Kirstin ber with a talk on the effects of recessions. About 70 undergraduates and several de Grouchy, Ross Ellison, Lewis Foster graduate students cameto hear Dr. Ruhm present his research, which was featured in III, Leslie Good, Robert Groat, Kevin the New York Times last year. Most recently, to follow up last year’s successful talk Hoeltschi, Leia Kelly, Melissa Lassiter, on globalization by Cato Institute Fellow Tom Palmer, we sponsored an interdiscipli- Kasey Maggard, Robert May, David nary panel to explain why jobs are being outsourced to Asia. Together with a business Merrell, Joyce Middleton, Jason Norris, professor and CEO of Relativity Technologies, Professors Black and Stewart shared Rachel Norton, Peter Richmond, Zephyr their expertise on the macroeconomic trends that are driving the globalization of labor. Taylor, Andrew Vynne, John White, James We’ve worked hard to help students get more out of their economics education, and Whitlock III, and Herman Wommack IV. we’re planning more interesting activities for next semester. If you have any ideas or In addition to the new student mem- recommendations for speakers, please contact us at http://www.unc.edu/student/orgs/ bers, Dr. Patrick Conway was honored with econclub. As always, we invite anyone interested in contemporary economic issues to a membership for the many contributions check our bulletin space on the first floor and join us at our next activity! he has made to the Department and Uni- James Lee, President

Page 14 -- Economics at Carolina Graduate Admissions and the Undergraduate Research Funds Importance of a Strong Funds are available to fund undergraduate research through the Herbert B. Mathematics Background for Mayo fund for undergraduate research, through the UNC-CH Arts and Sciences Foundation. These funds are used to support undergraduate research Graduate Study in Economics by covering costs as data collection , travel necessary for undergraduate by Helen Tauchen, Director research, computer software, etc. In addition, there are limited funds available Students who are considering a PhD in to support two undergraduate research internships for students to work with economics should talk with economics fac- Department Faculty. This year two of our senior honors students, Doug Sue ulty and consult the departmental web sites and Jennifer Wade, are receiving research funds to defray data and at universities of interest. The primary computational costs associated with their senior honors thesis. This past criteria for admission are previous educa- summer Ross D. Ellison received a research internship to do research expanding tion, particularly in economics and math- upon earlier research he completed in his Senior Honors Thesis. Because he ematics, letters of recommendation, and was not graduating until December, 2003, the internship during summer 2003 GRE scores. Some students pursue the gave him the opportunity to enhance his research experience by working PhD immediately after receiving the bachelor’s degree; others work for a few closely with a faculty member and graduate student on a formal journal article. years. Students who enter immediately The Department currently has two of these internships available, one in the may have better retention of the undergradu- Spring and one in the Summer. If you have an interest in either of these ate material. Those who work for a short internships, contact Al Field, Assoc. Chair/Director of Undergraduate Studies. while may have more experience with the The Mayo Fund continues to be an excellent example of how outside fund- self-direction required for graduate school ing contributes to the teaching, learning, and research experience of our un- and may have more applicable research ex- dergraduate majors. The Department and student recipients express our ap- perience. Departments recognize the trade- preciation to Dr. Mayo for his continuing support of our undergraduate pro- offs in the timing of graduate study and gram. If you are interested in supporting the Department, contact John Akin, admit both types of students. Graduate study in economics is far more Chair, 919-966-2385, [email protected]; or Ms.Kelly Moore, Arts and Sci- mathematical than is undergraduate study, ences Foundation, 919-843-3920, [email protected]. and graduate admissions committees place significant weight on a student’s SENIOR HONORS THESES Zephyr Taylor (Highest Honors), Does mathematical training. The mathematics background affects the quality of the school FOR THE CLASS OF 2003 Microcredit Contribute to Children’s Schooling? An Empirical Analysis of the a student can expect along with the chances Impact of Microcredit on Household De- of funding. In addition, students with During the academic year 13 of our most cision Making. stronger mathematics backgrounds outstanding economics majors participated D. Paul Vollman, Jr. (Highest Honors), generally do better in graduate school. in the Senior Honors Program. The pro- Overhauling Social Security: Protecting Particularly during the first year, they can gram consists of participating in two semi- Privatizing, and Guaranteeing Our focus on the economics rather than being nar courses, Economics 98 and 99 and com- Nation’s Retirement Income. swamped by the math. The standard pleting a senior honors thesis under the Kathleen Wirth (Highest Honors), Un- recommendation is multivariate calculus and close supervision of a Department faculty derstanding the Crime Choice-Market linear algebra, which at UNC is Math 33 member. This past year, the program was Wages. and 147. Additional mathematics courses directed by Prof. Donna Gilleskie. Based Peter Zalzal (Highest Honors), Media in real analysis and probability are on their research product, eight participants Influences on Desired Fertility in Rural advantageous for admission and success in received “Highest Honors” and five received Tanzania. completing the Ph and a number of programs their degree with “Honors.” The Depart- Mary Carroll (Honors), Hearing the state this explicitly in their admissions ment “Best Honors Thesis Award” was pre- Giant Sucking Sound: An Empirical literature. Many funded students at top- sented to Ms. Dana Messick. Participants Investigation of the Effects of NAFTA on ranked programs have more than the and the title of their respective thesis are: US-Mexican Trade. recommended level of mathematics; some Ross Ellison (Highest Honors), Textile and Walter Kuhn (Honors), An Investigation funded students at other programs have less. Apparel Trade: Estimation Models for of Intangible Assets: The Relationship Some students do not consider graduate Quotas. Between Corporate Giving, Earnings, study until after the baccalaureate and then Robb Granado (Highest Honors), The In- and Market Value. take mathematics courses while working. cidence of Fringe Spending in the Con- Jason Norris (Honors), The Effect of Indeed, a number of very successful troller-Agent Relationship and the Impor- Trade Liberalization on Developing economists have taken this route. Such tance of Homogenous Preferences. Countries’ Economic Growth. students need considerable strengths in Dana Messick (Highest Honors), Can Elizabeth Thomasson (Honors), Sick- other areas in order to gain admission to Economics Explain HIV Prevalence in ness and In Health: How to Increase the top programs. Based on experience, most Sub-Saharan Africa? Demand for Preventative Health Care admission committees do not regard Tina Singh (Highest Honors), Predicting Among Women of Childbearing Age in undergraduate night courses at lower ranked Middle School Students’ Educational Lao PDR. colleges as offering the same rigor as Trajectories: The Role of Algebra for Mi- Adam Duke (Honors), Measuring the Ef- mathematics courses at universities such nority Students. ficiency of NFL Head Coaches. as UNC.

Economics at Carolina -- Page 15 Alumni News

Thanks to all of you who took the time to Writing from Tokyo, Japan, Donald P. piling material for his book “Rogue Nation: respond to last years newsletter and bring us Kanak (1975) brought us up-to-date on post- The Failure of Good Intentions.” He then went up-to-date on where you are located, what Carolina activities. He currently is President to Shandong, PRC, for an English teaching you are doing, and the things going on in your and CEO, American International Group, Inc. job which abruptly came to an end due to SARS life. One of the enjoyable parts of the news- (AIG) companies in Japan and Korea, and in April. He then spent four months traveling letter has been the response it has elicited Executive Vice president and Member in the in India. from so many of you. It is gratifying to hear Office of the Chairman of AIG. He is active in Upon graduation Brett Southworth of the varied and interesting things you are the community serving as Chairman of the (2002) joined the Peace Corps and was as- doing and the many ways you are contributing American Chamber of Commerce in Japan as signed to Nouakchott, Mauritania, where he to both your profession and the communities well as in other professional organizations spent his time planning and teaching courses in which you live. This year’s Alumni News including the American-Japan society. After on computer software in French. Unfortu- contains information from both our under- leaving Carolina, Donald received a JD from nately he had to leave Mauritania in April due graduate majors and former graduate students. Harvard and an advanced degree in Manage- to the volatile political environment follow- We hope you will find it interesting to learn ment from Oxford University. He is married ing the invasion of Iraq and the accompany- about the wide variety of activities that our and the father of three teenagers. ing threats to US citizens in Nouakchott. former students are engaged in. Please take Ronald (Ronnie) Thompson (1973) no- Linda Jarosch wrote us from Burgberg, the time to get in touch with us by completing tified us that he had been elected President- Germany, to let us know that her daughter, and returning the back page of this newslet- Elect of the N.C. Realtors Association for 2003 Andrea Jarosch Larson (2001), moved back ter, or former undergraduates can email and will serve as President in 2004. He cur- to Chapel Hill this past year. [email protected] and former graduate stu- rently is living in Valdese, N.C. The Department was notified that Collier dents can email [email protected]. We Still living in the South, Erik I. Mikysa B. Sparger (1922) passed away in January always enjoy seeing former students “in per- (2000) is currently working in Ventures and 2002. He was living in Venice, Fla. son,” so if you find yourself in Chapel Hill, Business Development for Delta Airlines in please stop by the Department to say hello. Atlanta, Ga. He expressed his appreciation Graduate Alumni News to the Department for sending out the annual newsletter. Undergraduate Alumni News In each item, the year given in parenthe- Catherine Miller Pappas (1987) is cur- ses below is the year that the individual en- rently Director of Relocation with Dickens- tered our graduate program. Todd Hart (1988) writes that he, wife Zoe, Mitchener and Associates in Charlotte, N.C. Mike Slotkin (1987) is currently teach- and two young children recently moved from She encouraged anyone needing assistance in ing at the School of Management at Florida New York where he had been employed by moving their company or family anywhere in Inst. of Technology. He mentioned that a J.P. Morgan to Dallas where he is currently the country to give her a call. She has a three- former classmate, Alex Vamosi (1987), had employed by HBK investments, a large global year-old, Stephen, and six-month-old twins, recently joined his Department as the resi- hedge fund. Todd focuses on arbitrage, special Sarah Catherine and Will. dent macroeconomist. situation, and distressed investments in the Tim Newman (1986) lives in Charlotte, Robert (Bob) Blicksilver (1981) is a Se- financial service sector. N.C, and became President of the Economic nior Economist at US DOL/OSHA in Wash- Jeff Thornton (1994) let us know that he Development Organization for Charlotte’s ington, D.C. Over the years he has been in- is currently a Captain in the US Air Force Center City in April 2002. He is enjoying his volved in rulemaking projects ranging from working as a Crew Commander and Satellite new job immensely. asbestos to chemical process safety to struc- Vehicle Officer with the 4th Space Operations John LeRoy Townsend, III (1977) is cur- tural steel erection in construction. He has Squadron at Schriever AFB, Colo. rently serving as Managing Director, Goldman found the work interesting and expressed ap- Wright Meyer (1998) is a Darla Moore Sachs & Company. He received an MBA from preciation for the sound training he received Fellow in the International Master of Busi- Carolina in 1982. in his graduate program here. Contact: ness Administration program at the Moore John (Jack) C. Stout, Jr. (1968) is cur- [email protected]. School of Business in Columbia, S.C. After rently living in Savannah, Ga., with his wife Darrick Hamilton (1993) notified us of graduating from Carolina he served a stint in and ten-year-old daughter. Upon leaving Caro- an address and job change. He is currently the Peace Corps in Haiti working as a consult- lina, Jack received a JD degree and practiced Assistant Professor in the Milano Graduate ant to several rural savings and loan coopera- law for twenty years in Atlanta, Ga. He cur- School of Management and Urban Policy at tives. rently is involved in futures trading as both the New School Univ. in New York. Contact: William H. Wilkerson (1970) let us business and hobby. [email protected]. know that he recently retired as President, One of our more recent graduates, G. Ja- Joe Stella (1995) and Tara Nixon Stella Centura Banks, Inc., after a thirty-year bank- son Jolley (1998) wrote to let us know that (1995) wrote to announce that they have a ing career. He has since formed a private he is currently living in Hillsborough, N.C, new baby boy, Samuel, born in December 2002. investment company, Wilkerson Company, where he is working as an Economic Devel- They live in Philadelphia, Pa. Inc., and is located in Greenville, N.C. opment Specialist with the Orange County Writing from Nonthaburi, Thailand, is Shepard (Shep) J. Shapiro (1975) re- Economic Development Commission. In ad- Chomploen Chandr-Ruang-Phen sponded this year, sharing his company’s first dition, he is a part-time Ph.D. student in the (Saradatta) (1961). Chomploen retired from newsletter with us. He is currently living in Public Administration program at N.C. State Chulalongkorn University six years ago, but Centennial, Colo., where he is Vice President Univ., concentrating in local/regional devel- in August 2001, she was appointed as an Hon- of Insurance Shopping Network. He attrib- opment, urban administration, and environ- orary Professor in Economics at uted much of his success to the education he mental policy. He married in April 2002. Chulalongkorn University where she teaches received at Carolina (along with much hard Another recent graduate, Rishi Kotiya financial economics. She also was appointed work, I assume) and noted that he has now (2002) has had an interesting time since leav- to the Cabinet as a member of the committee lived longer in Colorado than in North Caro- ing Carolina first working as a researcher for considering the Disclosure of Economics and lina where he was born and raised. Clyde Prestowitz in Washington, D.C., com-

Page 16 -- Economics at Carolina Public Finance Data and Information for the pal economist, Housing Department at since 1987. He is an associate professor. country. She has a daughter and a son and Freddie Mac. He and his wife, Melissa, have Prentice Hall published his textbook in 2002 two grandchildren. Contact: 150/3 Tiwanon two boys, Miller and Noah. Contact: entitled Economic Development: Theory and 46, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand. [email protected]; Freddie Mac, Practice for a Divided World. Email: J. Michael Finger (1960) disturbs his Mail Stop 484, 8200 Jones Branch Dr., [email protected]. retirement by assuming the Vernon F. Tay- McLean, Va. 22102. After almost twenty years of bachelor- lor Visiting Distinguished Prof. of Econom- Once again we are sorry to report some hood, Ron Warren (1971) was married in ics for Spring 2004 at Trinity Univ. in San deaths. Joseph Atkins (1940) died in April June 2002 to Joanna Moore, an academic Antonio. Last year Edward Elgar published a of 2000, Edwin Patton Jr. (1968) died in advisor in the Business School at the Univ. collection of his papers entitled, Institutions June of 1997, and Charles Poston (1959) of Georgia. She has a daughter, now eight and Trade Policy. This fall Oxford Univer- died in January of 1999. I regret that I have years old, so Ron is enjoying parenthood sity Press will publish a book that Mike and no further details. when some of his UNC classmates are grand- Philip Schuler contributed to and edited. It Paul Shoofs (1968) gave quite a few na- parents. Ron continues professing in the is entitled Poor People’s Knowledge: Pro- tional media interviews on the economics of Terry College of Business at the Univ. of moting Intellectual Property in Developing professional baseball last year as contract Georgia. He has enjoyed teaching manage- Countries. And in order to have a say on the negotiations progressed in July and August up rial economics to French undergraduates (in current round of WTO negotiations, Mike to the strike deadline. He is still Chair at English) at the Universite Jean Moulin in prepared a monograph published by the Asian Ripon College and recently moved to an- Lyon, France, and environmental econom- Development Bank entitled The Doha other home within the city. Email: ics in the Georgia Study Abroad program in Agenda and Development: A View from the [email protected]. Oxford. Email: [email protected]. Uruguay Round. In between writing papers, A practicing economist heading the power- Harold Banguero (1974) sends a re- Mike does a day or two of fishing. Contact: trading group at a utility is Scott Spettel markable letter of life in Columbia amidst The American Enterprise Institute for Pub- (1980), the power manager for Eugene Wa- the threat of daily killings and kidnappings lic Policy Research, 1150 17th St., NW, ter and Electrical Board. His four children by left-wing guerrillas or right-wing paramili- Washington, D.C. 20036; [email protected]. are teenagers through college age. Contact: tary. He was a faculty member for five years Living in Wilmington, N.C., is Kurt EWEB, P.O. 10148, Eugene, Ore. 97440; at the University of Los Andes in Bogota LaForest (1990). He commutes up I-40 to [email protected]. and then in 1983 became Dean of the Fac- work with Murphy Brown/Smithfield Foods Charles Floyd (1959), professor emeri- ulty of Social and Economic Sciences at the in Rose Hill as the Division Controller. Con- tus from the Univ. of Georgia reports a new Univ. of Valle in Cali. His skill in dealing with tact: [email protected]; 910- email, [email protected]. repeated student demonstrations against the 289-2111, ext. 4207; Eleanor (Craig) Snellings (1947) is establishment got him placed as Director of Robin Gottfried (1970) visited UNC in retired from Virginia Commonwealth Univ. the Planning Office in 1985. This experi- April 2003 while he was making some pre- After leaving Carolina, she had positions with ence for one year led him to his first public sentations at an institution in Durham that the Univ. of Arkansas, UNC Women’s Col- sector job as head of the Cauca Valley Plan- will remain unnamed. He is still professing lege in Greensboro, the FRB of Richmond, ning Office for 2 years. He returned to the and no longer Chair at the Univ. of the South and VCU. Contact: 1600 Westbrook Ave. university in 1988 to start a masters-level in Sewanee, Tenn., and doing his research #833, Richmond, Va. 23227. program in applied economics. closer to home now. On Sabbatical last year, A graduate in his first position is Michael In 1993, his faculty life was interrupted he worked on an EPA Star Grant dealing with Quinn (1996). He is assistant professor in when he was appointed Mayor of Santander a GIS simulation model of land use change in Economics at Bentley College. Contact: de Quilachao (population 100,000), a town the southern Cumberland plateau. His daugh- Economics Dept., Bentley College, 175 For- thirty miles south of Cali in a region under ter Alicia graduated from Trinity Univ. and est St., Waltham, Mass. 02452-4705; the influence of guerrillas and narco-traf- Jeremy is a junior in college Email: [email protected]. fickers. Twice he was caught in crossfire [email protected]. Gary Martin (1968) started his working between the guerrillas and the national army. Also on sabbatical last year was Jan career teaching at N.C. Wesleyan College. “Believe me, I’d rather have been watching (Boucher) Breuer (1982). She was study- He was then research director for EDA of the movie with me not a member of the ing corruption, financial development and Puerto Rico for 4 years and Economics and cast!” financial crises and claiming to have enjoyed Trade Advisor for the government of Puerto He survived this exposure to regional it immensely. She and her husband, Lee, Rico for 15 years. He is now with the Bureau politics and returned to teaching in 1995, went to Niagara Falls to celebrate their tenth of Labor Statistics and won the 2000 becoming Research Vice-Rector in 1996 and anniversary, and they did so without their Lawrence R. Klein for best Monthly Labor Administrative Vice-Rector in 1997. Harold eight-year-old son and six-year-old daugh- Review article (Nov. r 2000) by a BLS em- has now retired from the Univ. of Valle. He ter. Jan is associate professor at South Caro- ployee. Gary writes that he had a “super- has worked on developing masters programs lina. Contact: Dept. of Economics, Moore political” avocational web site http:// at the National University in Honduras and School of Business, USC, Columbia, S.C. www.thebird.org/host/dcdave. Contact: Bu- now as a consultant for a private university 29208; [email protected]. reau of Labor Statistics, 2 Massachusetts Ave., in Cali. He would like to return to his coffee Ed Howle (1962) is back in Paris this Washington, D.C. 20212; [email protected]. farm in the mountains outside Cali but two year. He spent part of the past year in Chapel Laurel Green Elrod (1950) is retired close relatives were killed on the road to Hill although he spends a lot of time busy and sends a current address. Contact: 8919 Popayan and living there is too high a risk. with travel-for-work and pleasure. Contact: Parkroad-DC32, Charlotte, N.C. 28210. His son is beginning university studies and 403 Presque Isle Ln., Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Beginning as a health planner for the East- his daughter is in high school. His wife is an Living in the D.C. area and working for ern Virginia Health Systems Agency, Bar- artist. “When you think about it, it’s pretty the IMF is Kim Zieschang (1973). He has bara Helen (Thomas) Parker (1972) be- amazing that so many people here continue rotated jobs between the IMF and the Bu- gan CPA work for Mulkey and Co. for six to lead productive lives in an environment reau of Labor Statistics. His current title is years and then at Sullivan, Andrews, and Tay- that certainly does not facilitate that.” Deputy Division Chief, Real Sector Divi- lor since 1995. She is currently a manager. Harold would like to return for a year in the sion Statistics Department Contact: 700 Contact: Sullivan, Andrews and Taylor, 5544 US, teaching or doing research on Latin 19th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20431; Greenwich Rd. # 103, Virginia Beach, Va. American economics and policy. “If any of [email protected]. 23462; [email protected]. you know of an opening for a well-experi- Brian Surette (1990) started work with Stuart Lynn (1966) has been teaching at ence Latin America hand,” keep him in mind. the Federal Reserve Board and is now princi- Assumption College in Worcester, Mass., Email: [email protected].

Economics at Carolina -- Page 17 The State of the Department

Greetings from the Chair=s Office

I am happy again to be able to communicate with alumni and friends of the Depart- ment of Economics in this, our fourth newsletter, which coincidentally is being produced at the beginning of my fourth year as Department Chair. I am sure you tire of my mentioning state budget difficulties, but it is not easy to report on what has been going on at Chapel Hill and in the Department without noting that financial times have been difficult. Because of budget restrictions, the department, which has lost several faculty to retirement and personal reasons, has not been able to hire in numbers sufficient to keep staffing at the desired level. We have dropped from a high of 34 fulltime faculty to a present roster of 30, yet we have more majors and total enroll- ments now than we did at our peak faculty level. But we continue to teach the necessary courses to allow our students to progress toward degrees, and I believe it is a reflection on the quality and hard work of our faculty and staff that we are able to continue to teach these courses extremely well. The continuing popularity of the major and of our Economics courses should not surprise you who are reading this. I hope that the students taking our courses share our belief in the value of economics knowledge and of the relevance of the disciplines’ approach to problem solving, both in their professional and personal life. In Chapel Hill, we have just had our election for mayor and four town council members. The relation- ships of the town with the University was the dominant issue in the campaigns. A swiftly growing University juxtaposed on a community, many of whose residents lovingly hold the memory of its being a “village” will probably lead to a number of situations in need of compromise in the coming years. Given the nature of the issues, economics approaches and principles will undoubtedly either aid the reaching of reasonable conclusions or see both the town and University suffer from that approach being ignored. Let’s hope that information, reason, and logic win out. Unfortunately, we also know that the Economists’ message that tough choices must be made is rarely popular. I personally had an interesting year. In my now annual trip to China, I was able to travel on the Yangtze River through the Three Gorges to the giant new dam. It was an enlightening trip, and should add insights to the project in which I and my colleagues are analyzing health behaviors and health outcomes in that nation. I also went in June to Sri Lanka to continue an analysis of health system needs I started for the World Bank back in the early 1990s. Unfortunately, since my visit the likelihood of an end to the ceasefire in the civil war in that country seems to have worsened again. This morning, the press is reporting that the President has dissolved the Parliament and removed three cabinet members. It is sad to see such a beautiful and educated nation suffer so greatly and for so long. I’ll stop boring you with such things as my personal life and end this note. Please remember to make financial contributions to the “Department of Economics” if you are so inclined and are able. During the “Carolina First” campaign would be a good time to consider making significant gifts and possibly thinking about such creative ways of giving as life income bequests. Have a wonderful year and stop by for a visit if you are in Chapel Hill.

John Akin

Page 18 -- Economics at Carolina UNC ECONOMICS ALUMNI UPDATE

Name—As UNC Student: ______Current (if different): ______

Year Entered UNC: ______

Degree Year: BA ______MS ______Ph.D. ______Thesis/Dissertation Director: ______

Home Address: ______Phone ______Email ______

Position Title: ______Home Address: ______Phone (___)______Email ______

Family/household demographics you wish to include: ______Information for our next newsletter:______Other Comments or Questions:______

MAIL FORM TO: Economics Newsletter Office, Department of Economics, CB# 3305, 107 Gardner Hall, UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3305 or FAX: 919-966-4986.

2003

Economics at Carolina -- Page 19