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Perak Transit (PERAK MK) Not Rated Malaysia Trading Idea 15 January 2021 Industrials | Road & Rail Perak Transit (PERAK MK) Not Rated On The Path To a Higher Earnings Base Fair Value (Return): MYR1.05 (+26%) Price: MYR0.8435 Market Cap: USD131m Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 2.48m/0.61m Our MYR1.05 DCF-based FV for Perak Transit implies 14x FY21F P/E – Analyst below logistics and transportation peers’ 21x due to its smaller market cap. The full commencement of the Kampar terminal operations, growing focus on digital Lim Jia Yi A&P content, new terminals, and its venture into terminal management +603 9280 8873 services are growth drivers. As this is the sole listed bus terminal operator, we [email protected] believe its current 11x FY21P/E is undemanding, with a stable revenue stream business model bringing a 14% 2-year net profit CAGR. Sole listed company in the bus terminal business. Perak Transit is principally involved in operating integrated public transportation terminals (IPTT) – Terminal Meru Raya and Kampar Putra Sentral – and providing public bus services. IPTT contributed to 45% of FY19 revenue, followed by petrol Share Performance (%) stations (28%) and bus services (27%). As it operates in a highly regulated and asset-heavy industry, these factors are high entry barriers for newcomers. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Full commencement of Kampar Putra Sentral (KPS). KPS was granted a Absolute 7.1 1.2 5.0 54.6 23.7 full Certificate of Completion and Compliance (CCC) on 7 Aug 2020. The Relative 6.6 2.8 (2.4) 52.3 20.2 secured and interested occupancy rate for KPS is c.50%, which is anticipated 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.39 – 0.95 to rack up revenue and PAT of MYR16-17m pa and MYR9-10m pa. We believe the full commencement of KPS, rental from leasing of advertising and Perak Transit Bhd (PERAK MK) promotional (A&P) spaces, and the progressive recovery in domestic travel Price Close should lift IPTT revenue and earnings to a higher base ahead. Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 1.0 151 Recurring earnings from IPTT, with increasing focus on digital A&P 0.9 140 content. We expect Perak Transit’s rental income to grow (from c.22% of 0.8 128 revenue currently) in due course, with the recovery in consumer spending. The group is also looking to increase digital A&P content with potentially higher 0.7 117 margins, which could expand its customer outreach via digital channels. 0.6 105 Expanding Bidor and Tronoh terminals. The construction of Bidor Sentral is 0.5 94 expected to start in 2H21, and be completed in two years’ time. While smaller 0.4 82 than KPS, it is expected to serve surrounding students, factory workers, and 0.3 71 Jul-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Jan-21 Jan-20 Jun-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 local residents. Meanwhile, the construction of the Tronoh terminal should take Aug-20 May-20 May-20 place after Bidor Sentral. The land size of these two terminals is at c.5.8x of Source: Bloomberg KPS’, and these could be the next earnings drivers in the mid-to-long term. Terminal management services (TMS) as a potential new revenue stream. On 14 Jan, Perak Transit ventured into first TMS with Energetic Point. We estimate this unit to contribute MYR1.1m, MYR1.24m, and MYR1.27m to FY21-23F revenue, with a payback period of approximately three years. Steady dividend stream, interest savings. It has been paying around 35% of earnings in dividends since FY18, or a c.4% yield. This higher than its dividend policy of up to 25% of PAT. Assuming it mirrors FY19’s payout, we expect FY20-21F DPS at 3 sen, implying a c.4% yield. The reduction of sukuk principal and cut in interest rates should bring about interest savings. Risks: Non-renewal or revocation of vehicle and bus route permits, loss of income from project facilitation fees, and concentration risk on A&P customers. Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover (MYRm) 114 124 113 132 140 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 30 37 39 47 50 Recurring net profit growth (%) 5.7 22.5 7.6 20.1 6.0 Recurring P/E (x) 36.94 32.37 13.43 11.18 10.54 P/B (x) 3.9 3.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 P/CF (x) 40.65 18.96 8.10 7.53 6.87 Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 3.6 3.7 3.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.13 22.29 10.13 8.67 7.87 Return on average equity (%) 14.3 13.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 Note: Small cap stocks are defined as companies with a market Net debt to equity (%) 64.6 67.9 42.5 37.9 29.7 capitalisation of less than USD1bn. Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Perak Transit Malaysia Trading Idea 15 January 2021 Industrials | Road & Rail Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary (MYR) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Malaysia Recurring EPS 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.08 Industrials DPS 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 Perak Transit BVPS 0.21 0.23 0.74 0.78 0.83 PERAK MK Return on average equity (%) 14.3 13.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 Not Rated Valuation metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 36.94 32.37 13.43 11.18 10.54 14x FY21F P/E. P/B (x) 3.9 3.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 FCF Yield (%) (4.9) (1.5) (12.2) 7.6 11.7 Key drivers Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 3.6 3.7 3.7 i. Full commencement of Kampar Putra Sentral; EV/EBITDA (x) 25.13 22.29 10.13 8.67 7.87 ii. Recurring earnings from integrated public EV/EBIT (x) 32.16 27.67 12.82 10.91 9.85 transportation terminals with increasing focus in digital A&P content; iii. Expansion of terminals in Tronoh and Bidor; Income statement (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F iv. Steady dividend stream. Total turnover 114 124 113 132 140 Gross profit 48 56 60 71 75 Key risks EBITDA 51 63 72 83 87 i. Non-renewal or revocation of vehicle and bus Depreciation and amortisation (11) (12) (15) (17) (17) route permits; Operating profit 40 51 57 66 70 ii. Loss of income from project facilitation fees; iii. Concentration risk on A&P customers. Net interest (7) (10) (13) (9) (10) Pre-tax profit 33 41 44 56 60 Company Profile Taxation 3 (1) (4) (8) (9) Perak Transit is principally involved in the operation of Reported net profit 36 40 39 47 50 integrated public transportation terminal – Terminal Recurring net profit 30 37 39 47 50 Meru Raya and Kampar Putra Sentral and provision of public bus services. Cash flow (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Change in working capital 9.2 17.4 (1.8) (4.7) (2.1) Cash flow from operations 27.2 62.6 65.5 70.4 77.1 Capex (81.4) (79.9) (130.0) (30.0) (15.0) Cash flow from investing activities (80.9) (76.6) (131.9) (30.0) (15.0) Dividends paid (12.4) (14.2) (19.1) (19.5) (19.5) Cash flow from financing activities 50.3 70.9 78.2 (50.8) (51.3) Cash at beginning of period 25.8 24.1 75.8 90.4 79.1 Net change in cash (3.4) 56.9 11.8 (10.4) 10.9 Ending balance cash 24.1 75.8 87.5 80.0 89.9 Balance sheet (MYRm) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total cash and equivalents 24 76 90 79 89 Tangible fixed assets 424 537 652 665 663 Total investments 7 6 6 6 6 Total assets 519 661 799 807 817 Short-term debt 46 18 28 26 24 Total long-term debt 161 283 263 243 223 Total liabilities 235 328 327 307 285 Total equity 283 332 472 501 532 Total liabilities & equity 519 661 799 807 817 Key metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Revenue growth (%) 6.3 9.7 (9.0) 16.2 6.1 Recurrent EPS growth (%) 0.3 14.1 141.1 20.1 6.0 Gross margin (%) 42.7 45.2 53.0 53.6 53.6 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 45.0 50.8 63.3 62.7 62.3 Net profit margin (%) 31.6 31.9 34.8 36.0 36.0 Dividend payout ratio (%) 34.7 35.8 48.4 41.1 38.7 Capex/sales (%) 71.7 64.2 114.7 22.8 10.7 Interest cover (x) 5.25 4.79 4.25 6.70 6.74 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Perak Transit Malaysia Trading Idea 15 January 2021 Industrials | Road & Rail Towards a Higher Earnings Base Sole listed company in the bus terminal business Perak Transit is principally involved in the operation of IPTTs – Terminal Meru Raya and KPS – and the provision of public bus services.
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