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Upgrade of Sudan FEWS Upgrade of Sudan FEWS Final Report Upgrade of Sudan FEWS Final Report dr.ir. M.G.F. Werner 1202849-000 © Deltares, 2010 1202849-000-ZWS-0039, 22 December 2010, final Contents List of Abbreviations i 1 Introduction 1 1.1 General 1 1.2 Project background 2 1.3 Project objectives 3 1.4 Scope of work 3 1.5 Purpose of the Draft Final Report 4 1.6 Outline of the Final Report 4 2 Operational Flood Forecasting in Sudan 5 2.1 Current status of forecasting 5 2.2 Developments in forecasting in Sudan 5 3 Development of FEWS Sudan 7 3.1 Introduction 7 3.2 Hydrological and meteorological stations 8 3.2.1 Hydrological stations 9 3.2.2 Meteorological stations 9 3.3 Import Data 10 3.3.1 Observed water levels and flows at hydrological stations 11 3.3.2 Observed rainfall at meteorological gauges (point locations) 12 3.3.3 Satellite Rainfall Estimates (gridded data) 12 3.3.4 Numerical Weather Prediction products (gridded data) 16 3.4 Data processing 17 3.4.1 Catchment averaging 18 3.4.2 Data hierarchy for sources of estimates of observed precipitation 19 3.4.3 Data hierarchy for sources of estimates of future precipitation 19 3.4.4 Data validation rules 19 3.5 Flood warning levels 20 3.6 Available rating curves 20 3.6.1 Recommendation of the use of rating curves 21 3.7 Forecasting models: HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models 21 3.7.1 Rainfall-Runoff model for the Upper Blue Nile 22 3.7.2 Routing model for the Blue Nile 22 3.8 Forecasting models: linear correlation models 23 3.8.1 Implementation in FEWS Sudan 24 3.9 Forecasting models: Linear Perturbation Models 24 3.10 Forecast reports 25 3.11 Archiving 26 4 Forecasting process 29 4.1 Process 1: Data import 29 4.1.1 Step 1: Preparation of import data 30 4.1.2 Step 2: Copy data to import folder 30 4.1.3 Step 3: Running the FEWS import workflow 31 4.1.4 Step 4: Checking the presence of import data 31 Upgrade of Sudan FEWS i 1202849-000-ZWS-0039, 22 December 2010, final 4.2 Process 2: Data processing 31 4.2.1 Step 1: Data import 31 4.2.2 Step 2: Run Data Processing workflow 32 4.2.3 Step 3: Check presence of data in FEWS database 32 4.3 Process 3: Update run 32 4.3.1 Step 1: Running the Update Run workflow 33 4.4 Process 4: Forecast run 33 4.4.1 Forecasting using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models 33 4.4.2 Step 1: Update runs 33 4.4.3 Step 2: Run FEWS workflow 33 4.4.4 Step 3: Check presence of forecast in database 34 4.4.5 Step 4: Proceed to Dissemination process 34 4.4.6 Forecasting using Linear correlation models 35 4.5 Process 5: Dissemination 36 4.5.1 Step 1: Run FEWS workflow 37 4.5.2 Step 2: Check if HTML report have been created 37 4.5.3 Step 3: View and/or disseminate HTML reports 37 4.6 Archiving 37 4.6.1 Archiving observations and forecasts 37 4.6.2 Archiving local database and FEWS configuration 37 4.7 Installation and Training Workshop 37 5 Conclusions 41 6 Recommendations on a roadmap for the developments of forecasting capabilities in Sudan 43 6.1 Improvement of availability of observed data 43 6.2 Development of forecasting models 43 6.3 Forecast organisation, team and procedures 44 6.4 Training and capacity building 44 A Data format for importing data to FEWS Sudan A-1 A.1 Introduction A-1 A.2 Format A-1 A.3 Example A-2 B Guide to flow chart symbols B-1 C References C-1 D HEC-HMS model adapter: consistency test D-1 D.1 Comparison of simulation results from HEC-HMS and Delft-FEWS environments D-1 D.1.1 Initial conditions D-1 D.1.2 Forcing data D-1 D.1.3 Model run D-1 D.1.4 Simulation results: HEC-HMS environment D-2 D.1.5 Comparison of simulation results D-3 E Training Workshop Programme E-1 ii Upgrade of Sudan FEWS 1202849-000-ZWS-0039, 22 December 2010, final List of Abbreviations Symbol Description ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office EMA Ethiopian Meteorological Agency FEWS Flood Early Warning System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FPEW-I Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project – Phase 1 HEC Hydraulic Engineering Corps. HMS Hydrological Modelling System MoIWR Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources NWP Numerical Weather Prediction RAS River Analysis System SMA Sudan Meteorological Agency SRE Satellite Rainfall Estimate Upgrade of Sudan FEWS i 1202849-000-ZWS-0039, 22 December 2010, final 1 Introduction 1.1 General The Eastern Nile Basin, including the rivers of the Blue Nile, the Atbara and the Baro-Akobo- Sobat, constitutes one of the most important sources of water in the Nile basin. The Blue Nile itself contributes to some 60% of the annual average flow in the Nile basin, and this contribution increases to some 90% during the wet season. This clearly shows that the flows in these basins are highly variable, with the seasonal patterns dominated by monsoonal rains over the Ethiopian Highlands. The region is particularly vulnerable to floods and droughts as a result of this variability. The Blue Nile (known as Abbay in Ethiopia) flows through the Nile Gorge in the reach from Lake Tana (considered as the source of the Blue Nile) down to the Ethiopian-Sudanese border. Downstream of the border the river enters the flatter plains in Sudan, where it joins the White Nile at Khartoum, and then flows as the main Nile into Lake Nasser downstream of the town of Dongola. There are several major towns and cities in these reaches, including Wad Medani, Khartoum and Dongola, as well as scores of smaller communities. Several of these communities are prone to flooding, and widespread damage has been caused by large flood events, including those in 1988, 1998, and 2006. Following the floods of 1988, the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MoIWR) in Khartoum initiated the establishing of an operational flood forecasting system to allow flood warnings to be provided with sufficient lead time. This system was developed with technical assistance from the Netherlands, and became operational in 1992 (Grijsen et al., 1992). Known as FEWS Sudan, this system was operated successfully from 1992 to 1995. Following 1995, there were problems with the obtaining of remotely sensed rainfall data. Since then, alternative sources of rainfall data have been found, and the system has been used in several flood seasons since then, though the quality of the forecasts has diminished. Additionally, there were some difficulties in maintaining a suitably trained team to sustain operation of the system, although currently the system when operated is done so by self- trained staff of the Ministry. The system installed in 1992 was based on the original version of Delft FEWS from 1992 (developed by Delft Hydraulics, now Deltares), which is now quite outdated. Since then the Delft FEWS system has advanced considerably and now uses the latest available technology in integrating data and models in a forecasting environment. The Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO), established as a part of the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP), has initiated the Flood Preparedness and Early Warning (FPEW) project in the Eastern Nile Basin. The aim of this project is to improve flood management, and reduce damage and human suffering due to flooding in the basin. Specifically the objectives of the project are to develop a strong regional institutional basis, and further existing capabilities in the Eastern Nile basin. The advancing of forecasting capabilities in the Eastern Nile is an important part of these objectives. Within this context, ENTRO in conjunction with MoIWR, have the objective to rehabilitate FEWS Sudan, and bring this up to date with the modern standards of the current Delft FEWS forecasting platform. The aim of this project, undertaken by Deltares in cooperation with UNESCO-IHE, is to work with ENTRO and the MoIWR in upgrading FEWS Sudan to the current state of the art in operational forecasting. A key approach to the project is to enhance the sustainability of FEWS Sudan through integrating models developed by consultants locally, and through Upgrade of Sudan FEWS 1 of 64 1202849-000-ZWS-0039, 22 December 2010, final ensuring that staff at the MoIWR is sufficiently trained to use the system. Additionally, the system is required to be flexible, so that when new models and forecasting techniques become available these can be integrated in the forecasting system, in part by staff at the MoIWR. This report is the final report to the project. The report details the findings of the design phase of the system as described in the interim report, and elaborates on how these design principles have been implemented. The report briefly described the models currently integrated in FEWS Sudan, as well as recommendations on the extension of the system once new models become available. 1.2 Project background The original FEWS Sudan was developed between 1990 and 1992, and became operational in 1992. FEWS Sudan comprised of a system that contained three main parts (Grijsen et al., 1992): A Primary Data User Station (PDUS) for receiving and processing of METEOSAT thermal infra-red images on a half-hourly basis. These data were used for the estimation of daily rainfall quantities from cold cloud duration over the catchments of the Blue Nile and Atbara River.
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