Ben Aessa, Ahmed Yusef (2014) Libyan foreign policy: a study of policy shifts in Libya’s nuclear programme. PhD thesis. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/6452/ Copyright and moral rights for this thesis are retained by the author A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Glasgow Theses Service http://theses.gla.ac.uk/ [email protected] Libyan foreign policy: A study of policy shifts in Libya’s nuclear programme Ahmed Yusef Ben Aessa Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Politics School of Social and Political Science College of Social Sciences University of Glasgow November 2014 1 ABSTRACT This thesis seeks to analyse and explain Libya’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability and the factors that ultimately influenced Qaddafi’s regime to dismantle the nuclear weapons programme. Driven by the core motive to deter external threats to its security and the desire to become a regional power, Libya for over three decades sought to acquire nuclear weapons, but failed to obtain them ‘off the shelf’. From the 1970s until 2003, Libya sought to acquire key elements of nuclear components. After many years Qaddafi transformed his foreign and security policies, which for several decades had resulted in rogue behaviour on the part of the state machine. This transformation applied to the ideological motivations that had generated the regime’s aggressive approach in the realm of international relations. Focusing on the Libyan case study, in three different periods has allowed the key factors influencing Libya’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability and simultaneously its decision to denuclearise, to be unravelled. The empirical findings demonstrate that external and internal pressure provides a satisfactory explanation for the reorientation of Libya’s policies. This thesis confirms that Qaddafi’s regime dismantlement of its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 was influenced by the domestic factors such as public pressure, and external factors such as stringent economic sanctions, international isolation and the very genuine threat of military action. This in turn reflected the fact that the Libyan case can be better explained from a realistic point of view. Indeed, the study found that the reaction of the Libyan government was not a response to the regional and international norms, but it was rather a consequence of domestic and external pressure. By arguing this, denuclearisation occurs when regimes comes under internal and external pressure, particularly from powerful actors by using coercion tools such as international isolation, economic sanctions and threat of military action. This thesis contributes to broader theoretical debates surrounding non-proliferation and denuclearisation. This study concludes that states can give up their nuclear weapons programmes under certain internal and external factors. 2 Table of Contents Page Title page 1 Abstract 2 List of Figures 7 Dedication 8 Acknowledgements 9 Declaration 10 List of Abbreviations 12 Chapter 1: Introduction 15 1.1 Introduction 15 1.2 Literature Review 19 1.3 Theoretical Debate 21 1.4 Methodology 25 1.5 Outlines of the Thesis 29 Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework 36 2.1 Introduction 36 2.2 Background to the Phenomenon of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation 38 2.2.1Reasons for Nuclear Weapons Proliferation 43 2.2.2 Reasons for Denuclearisation 51 2.3 Internal and External Factors 55 2.3.1 Internal Factors 55 2.3.2 Regional Factors 56 2.3.3 External Factors 57 2.4 International Relations Theories 58 2.4.1 Realism 60 2.4.2 Neorealism (Structural Realism) 61 2.4.3 Neoclassical Realism 64 2.4.4 Critical Reflection of Realism 69 2.5 Constructivism 70 2.6 Review of Nuclear and IR Approaches 78 2.7 Different Interpretations of the Libyan Case 79 2.7.1 Libyan Foreign Policy 81 2.7.2 Libya, the Sanctions and the Development of its Nuclear Programme 81 2.7.3 The Last Decade; Negotiations and Dismantlement of Libya’s Nuclear 3 Programme 82 Chapter 3: Libyan Foreign Policy from 1969 to 1981 83 3.1 Introduction 83 3.2 Historical Review 84 3.2.1 The Significance of Libya’s Geographical Location 94 3.3 Development of the Libyan Political System 98 3.3.1 Foreign Policy-making in Libya 102 3.3.2 A Review of Libya’s Foreign and Security Policies 107 3.3.3 Conventional Military Build-up after the Revolution 109 111 3.4 Factors Affecting Libyan Foreign and Security Policies from 1969 until 1981 113 3.4.1 Domestic Factors Affecting Libyan Behaviour 118 3.4.1.1 The Role of Ideology 119 3.4.1.2 The Role of Oil 122 3.4.2 Regional Factors Affecting Libya’s Foreign and Security Policies 126 3.4.3 External Factors Affecting Libyan Foreign and Security Policies 128 3.4.3.1 Libya’s Anti-Western Measures and Alignment with the USSR 129 3.4.4 Multiple Factors, Domestic, Regional and External Influencing Libya’s Foreign and Security Policies 135 3.4.5 Theoretical Discussion 137 3.5. Conclusion 138 Chapter 4: Libya’s Sanctions and the Evolution of the Nuclear Programme 141 4.1 Introduction 141 4.2 Libya and Armed Militancy 144 4.2.1Qaddafi’s Regional and International Policies 147 4.2.2Qaddafi’s Support for Outlawed Movements 148 4.2.3 Libya’s Support for Latin American and Asian Revolutionary Movements 151 4.2.4 Libyan Opposition to Qaddafi 154 4.3 Libya and the West 158 4.3.1 The Lockerbie and UTA Cases 161 4.3.2 US Unilateral Sanctions and UN Multilateral Sanctions 163 4.3.3 The Libyan Response to US and UN Sanctions 165 4 4.3.4 Libya’s Policies: From Defiance to Co-operation 169 4.4 Libya’s Nuclearisation Project 171 4.4.1 Libya’s Development of Nuclear Capacity 179 4.4.2 Qaddafi and Chemical Weapons 182 4.4.3 The Training of Libyan Scientists 185 4.4.4 American Efforts to Discourage Nuclear Proliferation 188 4.4.5 Libya and the Khan Network 192 4.5 Factors Affecting Libya’s Shift in Foreign Policy and Nuclearisation 196 4.5.1 Domestic Factors Affecting Libyan Behaviour 196 4.5.1.1 The Role of Ideology 197 4.5.1.2 The Role of Oil 198 4.5.2 Regional Factors Affecting Libya’s Foreign and Security Policies 199 4.5.3 External Factors Affecting Libyan Foreign Policy and the Nuclear Programme 200 4.5.4 Multiple Factors - Domestic, Regional and External Influencing Libya’s Foreign and Security Policies 202 4.5.5 Theoretical Discussion 203 4.6 Conclusion 204 Chapter 5: The Last Decade; Negotiations and Dismantlement of Libya’s Nuclear Programme 206 5.1 Introduction 206 5.2 Features of the Libyan Policy Shift at the National Level 207 5.3 Features of the Libyan Policy Shift at the Regional and International Level 212 5.3.1 Aspects of Change at the Regional Level 213 5.3.2 Libya’s Co-operation in the War on Terror 217 5.3.3 The Reconciliation of the Lockerbie, UTA (the French airliner), and the Berlin Discotheque Affairs 220 The Lockerbie Trial 221 5.4 The Process of Dismantling the Libyan Nuclear Weapons Programme 223 5.4.1 The Path towards the Rollback of Libya’s Nuclear Programme 2003 223 5.4.2 The Negotiations Concerning Libya’s Denuclearisation 225 5.4.3 The Announcement of the Dismantling of Libyan Nukes 231 5.4.4 Verification and Assessment of Libya’s Nuclear Programme 237 5 5.4.5 Libyan Gains in Return of its Denuclearisation 245 5.5 Libya and the West - From Antagonism to Partnership 249 5.5.1 Libya and the US 252 5.6 Theoretical Discussion 254 5.7 Conclusion 256 Chapter 6: Conclusion 259 6.1 Introduction 259 6.2 The Empirical Contribution 272 6.3 Scholarly Contribution 272 6.3.1 The Constructivist Approach: Unmet Expectations 273 6.3.2 The Realist Approach: An Appropriate Explanation 276 6.4 Observations 278 6.5 Final Remarks 279 References 279 Appendix 301 6 List of Figures Figure 3.1: Map of Libya 95 Figure 3.2: Diversity of Libyan Foreign Policies 106 Figure 5.1: Map of Libya’s nuclear sites 238 7 Dedication To my parents Yusef & Hamida and to my beloved wife Marwa 8 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my deepest appreciation to the many people who have assisted me over the last few years to accomplish this research. I am honoured to have such an outstanding supervisor, Dr. Kurt Mills. I would like to thank him for his time, effort, knowledge, attention to detail and dedication into the supervision of this piece of work. Without his generous suggestions, guidance and insightful feedback, I would have faced many difficulties in completing this project. I would also like to express my deepest gratitude to Professor Maurizio Carbone, Dr. Kelly Kollman, Dr. Cian O’driscoll, Professor Alasdair Young and several members of staff at the Department of Politics for their endless support during the period of my study at the University of Glasgow. Their expertise, wisdom, and dedication have been crucial to my intellectual development and I owe them a great debt of gratitude.