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Capital Markets in China and Britain, 18Th and 19Th Century: Evidence from Grain Prices

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Capital Markets in China and Britain, 18Th and 19Th Century: Evidence from Grain Prices NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CAPITAL MARKETS IN CHINA AND BRITAIN, 18TH AND 19TH CENTURY: EVIDENCE FROM GRAIN PRICES Wolfgang Keller Carol H. Shiue Xin Wang Working Paper 21349 http://www.nber.org/papers/w21349 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2015 We thank Howard Bodenhorn, Stephen Broadberry, Edmund Cannon, Kris Mitchener, Kevin O’Rourke, Sevket Pamuk, and Jeff Williamson, as well as seminar participants at CEPR/CAGE Venice conference for comments. Thanks to Edmund Cannon, Wang Yeh-Chien, and Nathan Nunn for help with data. William Ridley and Austin Smith performed excellent research assistance. NSF support under grant SES 1124426 is gratefully acknowledged. Part of this research was done when Keller and Shiue were National Fellows at the Hoover Institution in Stanford, which they thank for its hospitality. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2015 by Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue, and Xin Wang. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Capital Markets in China and Britain, 18th and 19th Century: Evidence from Grain Prices Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue, and Xin Wang NBER Working Paper No. 21349 July 2015 JEL No. G12,N10,N13,N25,O10 ABSTRACT Capital markets allow surplus income to be invested into productivity-enhancing projects. Despite their prominence in general accounts of growth little is known on their role in the emergence of modern economic growth. In this paper we ask whether capital market performance might explain why Britain surged ahead of China in the 18th century. We employ an asset-pricing model together with information on regional grain prices to derive interest rates, and then compare capital market development in large parts of Britain and China. We first calibrate the method and show that it can replicate key features of the United States’ early 19th century capital market, where more systematic data from bank interest rates is available. Using this approach we estimate interest rates for Britain that are at least 20% lower than those for China, for the years 1770 - 1860. Moreover, the regional integration of British capital markets, measured in terms of bilateral interest rate correlations, was far greater than it was in China. The Yangzi Delta correlations come close to the British average at distances below 200 kilometers, but at larger distances interest rate correlations in Britain are twice those of the Delta, and three or more times as high as elsewhere in China. We also find that Britain’s advantage over China in terms of market integration existed already in the late 18th century. Backcasting on the 19th century trends suggests capital market divergence started by the year 1690. Overall, our results provide support for the hypothesis that divergence in capital market development occurred before income divergence, and may therefore be an important factor in explaining the Great Divergence. Wolfgang Keller Xin Wang Department of Economics University of Colorado Boulder University of Colorado-Boulder Room 307, Economics Building Boulder, CO 80309-0256 256 UCB and Stanford University, Hoover Institution Boulder, CO 80309-0256 and also NBER [email protected] [email protected] Carol H. 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