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Cuadernos De Estrategia 197 La Posverdad. Seguridad Y Defensa Cuadernos de Estrategia 197 Instituto Español La posverdad. Seguridad de Estudios y defensa Estratégicos MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Instituto Cuadernos de Estrategia 197 Español de Estudios La posverdad. Seguridad Estratégicos y defensa MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CATÁLOGO GENERAL DE PUBLICACIONES OFICIALES http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA https://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Autores y editor, 2018 NIPO: 083-18-128-4 (edición papel) NIPO: 083-18-129-X (edición libro-e) ISBN: 978-84-9091-368-0 (edición papel Depósito legal: M-16386-2018 Fecha de edición: junio 2018 Maqueta e imprime: Ministerio de Defensa Las opiniones emitidas en esta publicación son exclusiva responsabilidad de los autores de la misma. Los derechos de explotación de esta obra están amparados por la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual. Ninguna de las partes de la misma puede ser reproducida, almacenada ni transmitida en ninguna forma ni por medio alguno, electrónico, mecánico o de grabación, incluido fotocopias, o por cualquier otra forma, sin permiso previo, expreso y por escrito de los titulares del © Copyright. En esta edición se ha utilizado papel 100 % libre de cloro procedente de bosques gestionados de forma sostenible. ÍNDICE Página Introducción ............................................................................................................. 9 Leandro Esteban Villamor Capítulo primero El mundo de la posverdad ................................................................................ 21 Federico Aznar Fernández-Montesinos Una época de confusión. Los pos- y los -ismos ................................................. 23 Los medios y la opinión pública ............................................................................ 27 Tecnología y sociedad .............................................................................................. 41 Verdad, emoción y razón ......................................................................................... 46 La posverdad .............................................................................................................. 49 Las fake news o noticias falsas ............................................................................. 55 La pospolítica ............................................................................................................. 59 La guerra híbrida y la posverdad .......................................................................... 64 Superar la posverdad ............................................................................................... 69 Conclusiones .............................................................................................................. 75 Bibliografía ................................................................................................................. 77 Publicaciones ...................................................................................................... 77 Recursos electrónicos y artículos ................................................................... 79 Capítulo segundo Políticas de seguridad y defensa en la era de la posverdad .............. 83 Alfonso Merlos Introducción: un futuro de incertidumbre y fragilidad ..................................... 85 Repensando el concepto de interés nacional ..................................................... 86 Hacia una transición en los modelos de seguridad .......................................... 89 Nuevos horizontes de la cultura de defensa ...................................................... 92 La Inteligencia: ayer, hoy y mañana ..................................................................... 93 El arma de doble filo de las TIC ............................................................................. 96 5 Página La metamorfosis en los procesos de comunicación ....................................... 97 Un escenario de audiencias volátiles y empoderadas .................................... 99 Injerencias imprevistas en procesos electorales ............................................. 100 Realidades y mitos de las operaciones rusas ................................................... 102 Conclusiones: cómo detener a atacantes invisibles ........................................ 104 Capítulo tercero Redes sociales y posverdad en el devenir de los Estados .................. 107 Eva Moya Pero… ¿cómo hemos llegado hasta aquí? ........................................................... 109 Globalización, democracia y lobby ......................................................................... 110 Del usuario pasivo al «ciudadano interactivo» ............................................. 111 La pequeña revolución de la movilidad y la evolución de los dispositivos móviles ......................................................................................................... 119 Computación en nube, big data e inteligencia artificial .............................. 120 Política, relaciones internacionales y economía a golpe de tuit ................... 123 Propaganda política y posverdad «transparente» ....................................... 123 Propaganda política y posverdad «enmascarada» ...................................... 133 Las redes sociales y la manipulación de la economía ................................ 141 El impacto de la posverdad en las redes sociales y en las emergencias: seguridad y defensa ......................................................................................... 144 Catástrofes naturales ........................................................................................ 144 Crimen, cibercrimen y mercenarios en redes sociales ............................... 146 Terrorismo: el Dáesh en las redes sociales y contrapropaganda .............. 148 Las Fuerzas Armadas como objetivo .............................................................. 155 Tácticas utilizadas para combatir la propaganda y la manipulación a tra- vés de la posverdad .......................................................................................... 157 Capítulo cuarto La disrupción digital en el contexto de las guerras híbridas ............ 159 Javier Lesaca Esquiroz La revolución tecnológica y sus implicaciones en la gobernanza ................ 161 La disrupción comunicativa como arma en el contexto de las guerras hí- bridas ................................................................................................................... 168 Las guerras híbridas de agentes nacionales ................................................ 175 Las guerras híbridas de agentes no nacionales .......................................... 182 La metodología de la disrupción comunicativa ................................................ 183 La disrupción comunicativa del Dáesh ................................................................ 186 La narrativa disruptiva del Dáesh .................................................................. 187 Estrategia de medios y plataformas de difusión propias ........................... 192 Distribución automatizada de las campañas ................................................ 194 Conclusión .................................................................................................................. 195 Capítulo quinto El hacktivismo como estrategia de comunicación: de Anonymous al cibercalifato ................................................................................................ 197 Manuel R. Torres Soriano Introducción .............................................................................................................. 199 6 Página Una breve historia del hacktivismo ..................................................................... 201 Entre lo individual y lo colectivo .......................................................................... 202 La eclosión del hacktivismo antisistema: Anonymous .................................... 206 Bajo la estela de Anonymous ................................................................................. 213 Hacktivismo yihadista ............................................................................................. 216 Conclusiones .............................................................................................................. 223 Composición del grupo de trabajo ................................................................. 225 Cuadernos de Estrategia ................................................................................... 227 7 Introducción Leandro Esteban Villamor Decir que la posverdad y las fake news o noticias falsas son gran parte de la esencia de la comunicación y de las relaciones sociales de nuestros días quizá sea una de las pocas verdades absolutas que nos queden en pie. Se- gún el informe de la consultora Edelman (Edelman Trust Barometer1 2018, que encuestó a más de 33.000 personas en veintiocho países), el 63% de la población mundial no es capaz de distinguir entre noticias verídicas y rumo- res. En el mismo documento se afirma que un 59% de la población opina que cada vez es más difícil saber si una noticia proviene de un medio respetado o no. Resulta paradójico comprobar cómo la sociedad de la información sufre una auténtica epidemia de desinformación; quizá por ello nace esta publica- ción. El hecho cierto es que la oportunidad de hacerlo parece innegable, del mismo modo que parece innegable que con la era de la posverdad se inicia el reinado del sentimiento, que emerge victorioso sobre la verdad. Esta verdad, la vieja y superada
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