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Case Studies to Assess and Compare Different Energy Sources in Sustainable Energy and Electricity Supply Strategies

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Case Studies to Assess and Compare Different Energy Sources in Sustainable Energy and Electricity Supply Strategies IAEA-TECDOC-1370 Case studies to assess and compare different energy sources in sustainable energy and electricity supply strategies Final report of a co-ordinated project 1997-2000 August 2003 The originating Section of this publication in the IAEA was: Planning and Economic Studies Section International Atomic Energy Agency Wagramer Strasse 5 P.O. Box 100 A-1400 Vienna, Austria CASE STUDIES TO ASSESS AND COMPARE DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES IN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY SUPPLY STRATEGIES IAEA, VIENNA, 2003 IAEA-TECDOC-1370 ISBN 92-0-109303-9 ISSN 1011-4289 © IAEA, 2003 Printed by the IAEA in Austria August 2003 FOREWORD The IAEA offers its Member States a comprehensive programme of technical assistance and co-operation, which covers many diverse areas related to peaceful uses of nuclear energy. In the area of comparative assessment, the objective of assistance is to strengthen national capabilities for informed decision making, and for elaborating sustainable choices among alternative options for energy supply and use. In the past, the planning process was designed to meet the future demand for energy at the least engineering cost. However, the pursuit of increasingly sustainable energy options over time has required a broader comparative assessment that addresses economic, social, health and environmental factors. To support this need, in 1992 the IAEA initiated an inter-agency project on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation (DECADES). Under the project, nine international organizations, European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), agreed to pool their efforts to achieve the common objective of enhancing capabilities for comparative assessment of different energy chains in the process of planning and decision making for the electricity sector. DECADES was initially conceived as a set of generic and national databases detailing the environmental impacts, costs and characteristics of various generating and fuel chain technologies which could be used for comparative assessment by investors and policy makers. These databases were linked to software permitting their easy integration into other energy planning or analysis tools. DECADES was thus organized as a data management system rather than as an overall or long range energy planning tool. In 1997, the IAEA initiated a co-ordinated research project (CRP) on Case Studies to Assess and Compare Different Sources in Sustainable Energy and Electricity Supply Strategies under the aegis of the DECADES project to conduct a series of national studies using the DECADES package (DECPAC). Under this CRP, experts from more than twenty countries utilized databases and methodologies developed and reviewed under the DECADES project to carry out national comparative assessment studies. At a final Research Co-ordination Meeting (RCM), held from 14 to 16 December 1999, meeting participants agreed on the format of executive summaries to be prepared for each of the national case studies. This publication summarizes the results obtained and the lessons learned from national case studies carried out under the CRP. The report is intended primarily for managers and senior experts in governmental organizations, research institutes and power utilities who are involved in energy and environmental analysis, interpretation of model results and translation into decision and policy making. The IAEA wishes to express its gratitude to the chief scientific investigators who were responsible for conducting comparative assessment studies under the CRP and contributing to the preparation of executive summaries contained in this publication. The IAEA also wishes to acknowledge the support of the Government of the United States of America in hosting the second RCM organized under this CRP at the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, as well as the Government of Switzerland for hosting the third RCM at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. The IAEA officers responsible for this publication were A.I. Jalal and I.F. Vladu. The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. CONTENTS PART I. THE DECADES PROJECT 1 PART II. COUNTRY CASE STUDIES 1. Argentina: Analysis of nuclear power competitiveness in Argentina and its incidence on GHG emissions using DECADES programmes ..................................................................9 2. Belarus: Analysis of electricity chain facilities and least cost expansion plan for Belarus electricity generation system...............12 3. Bulgaria: Comparative analysis of scenarios for sustainable development of the electricity sector in Bulgaria.................................................16 4. China: China case study of DECPAC package application ........................20 5. Croatia: Case study for “Croatian electrical energy system on comparing sustainable energy mixes for electricity generation" .......................27 6. Cuba: Implementation of country specific database (CSDB) and comparative assessment of options and strategies for electricity generation .......................................................................31 7. Egypt: Comparative assessment of electricity system policies in Egypt with emphasis on addressing atmospheric pollution .......................34 8. Hungary: Case studies to assess and compare different energy sources in sustainable energy and electricity supply strategies — the case study for Hungary ............................................................... 36 9. Indonesia: Case studies on comparing sustainable energy mixes for electricity generation in Indonesia.................................................... 39 10. The former Yugoslav Republic Main results from the Macedonian power system of Macedonia: development study............................................................................ 43 11. Pakistan: Incorporation of environmental regulations in medium to long term planning for electric system expansion in Pakistan ........ 48 12. Peru: DECADES case study for Peru........................................................ 51 13. Philippines: Establishment of a country specific database for the comparative assessment of electricity plants generating in the Philippines ........54 14. Romania Establishment of the nuclear power plant role in the greenhouse gases emission reduction in Romania ........................... 58 15. Russian Federation: Economic assessment and environmental consequence of different energy options to meet electricity demand in the northwest region of the Russian Federation ..................................... 63 16. Slovakia: The use of DECADES for the policy making process to comply with environmental requirements in the electricity generating sector in Slovakia .......................................... 66 17. Switzerland: A strategic electric sector assessment methodology under sustainability conditions (SESAMS)................................................ 70 18. Turkey: Comparison of economic and environmental results of several scenarios regarding mitigation of atmopheric pollutions in Turkey...................................................... 75 PART III. LESSONS LEARNED 78 BIBLIOGRAPHY...................................................................................................................85 CONTRIBUTORS TO DRAFTING AND REVIEW.............................................................87 Part I THE DECADES PROJECT 1.1. Background The IAEA has a long tradition in the analysis and planning of energy systems. In response to requests from its Member States, the IAEA has implemented and disseminated energy system analysis tools that are widely used by national institutions and international organizations. Throughout the 1970s and 80s, the analysis of energy options typically focused on determining the economically optimal manner in which to meet the energy needs of a country. However, heightened interest and awareness in health and the environment has led to a broadening of the analysis that is necessary. In order to assist with comprehensive “comparative assessments ” of energy options, the IAEA expanded the scope of its analytical activities to include environmental, health and social impacts together with traditional economic and technical comparisons. In 1991, a Senior Expert Symposium on Electricity and the Environment was jointly organized by the IAEA and ten other international organizations in Helsinki, Finland. Presentations and discussions at the Helsinki Symposium characterized the general situation in developing countries with respect to energy planning by the following
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