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Name in Thesis DEVELOPMENT OF GRID-BASED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON FLOOD IN CHIANG MAI MUNICIPALITY AREA Wichan Phandee A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geoinformatics Suranaree University of Technology Academic Year 2011 การพัฒนาแบบจําลองอุทกวิทยาแบบกริดเพื่อประเมินผลกระทบจากการ เปลี่ยนแปลงการใชที่ดินและภูมิอากาศตอการเกิดน้ําทวม ในพื้นที่เทศบาลนครเชียงใหม นายวิชาญ พันธุดี วิทยานิพนธนี้เปนสวนหนึ่งของการศึกษาตามหลักสูตรปริญญาวิทยาศาสตรดุษฎีบัณฑิต สาขาวิชาภูมิสารสนเทศ มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีสุรนารี ปการศึกษา 2554 DEVELOPMENT OF GRID-BASED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON FLOOD IN CHIANG MAI MUNICIPALITY AREA Suranaree University of Technology has approved this thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Thesis Examining Committee __________________________________ (Asst. Prof. Dr. Sunya Sarapirome) Chairperson __________________________________ (Asst. Prof. Dr. Songkot Dasananda) Member (Thesis Advisor) __________________________________ (Asst. Prof. Dr. Chatchai Jothityangkoon) Member __________________________________ (Asst. Prof. Dr. Suwit Ongsomwang) Member __________________________________ (Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kampanad Bhaktikul) Member _____________________________ ______________________________ (Prof. Dr. Sukit Limpijumnong) (Assoc. Prof. Dr. Prapun Manyum) Vice Rector for Academic Affairs Dean of Institute of Science วิชาญ พันธุ์ดี : การพัฒนาแบบจําลองอุทกวิทยาแบบกริดเพื่อประเมินผลกระทบจากการ เปลี่ยนแปลงการใช้ที่ดินและภูมิอากาศต่อการเกิดนํ้าท่วมในพื้นที่เทศบาลนครเชียงใหม่ (DEVELOPMENT OF GRID-BASED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON FLOOD IN CHIANG MAI MUNICIPALITY AREA) อาจารย์ที่ปรึกษา : ผู้ช่วยศาสตราจารย์ ดร.ทรงกต ทศานนท์, 239 หน้า. งานวิจัยชิ้นนี้มีวัตถุประสงค์หลัก 3 ประการคือ (1) เพื่อพัฒนาแบบจําลองอุทกวิทยาแบบ เชิงกริดที่สามารถจําลองผลของนํ้าท่าได้อยางสมจริง่ (ระดับรายเดือนและรายวัน) โดยการใช้ข้อมูล GIS (2) เพื่อสร้างแผนที่นํ้าท่วมที่สัมพันธ์กนของเทศบาลนครเชียงใหมั ่ ระหวางเดือนก่ นยายนั 2548 อิงตามข้อมูลปริมาณนํ้าท่าจําลองและกราฟความสัมพันธ์ระหวางปริมาตรนํ่ ้าท่าและระดับ ความสูงของนํ้า (3) เพื่อตรวจสอบผลกระทบของการเปลี่ยนแปลงรูปแบบการใช้ประโยชน์ที่ดิน และสิ่งปกคลุมดิน (LULC) และการผันแปรของสภาพอากาศต่อปริมาณนํ้าท่าจําลอง และแผนที่นํ้า ท่วมที่สัมพันธ์กนั อิงจากแผนที่ LULC ปี 2563 ที่ทํานายโดยแบบจําลอง CA-Markov และการ เปลี่ยนแปลงภูมิอากาศในรูปของการเพิ่มขึ้นของปริมาณฝน พื้นที่ศึกษาที่เลือกคือส่วนหนึ่งของลุ่ม นํ้าปิงตอนบนซึ่งมีพื้นที่ประมาณ 1120 ตร.กม. ครอบคลุมพื้นที่เทศบาลนครเชียงใหม่ สําหรับวัตถุประสงค์แรก พบวาผลการศึกษาของทั่ ้งห้ากรณีศึกษาที่เลือกมาเพื่อการพัฒนา แบบจําลองรายเดือน แสดงให้เห็นวาแบบจําลองดังกล่ ่าวไม่อ่อนไหวต่อการผันแปรระดับความลึก ของดินมากนัก แต่ขึ้นกบปริมาณและการผันแปรของความเข้มฝนเป็นอยั างสูง่ โดยพบวาการไหล่ ออกของนํ้าใต้ผิวดิน มีความจําเป็นอยางยิ่ งต่ ่อการได้ผลการจําลองที่สมจริงมากกว า่ สําหรับ แบบจําลองรายวันซึ่งพัฒนามาจากแบบจําลองรายเดือนที่ดีที่สุด และผสานปัจจัยเกี่ยวกบการคายนํั ้า ของพืชเข้าไว้ด้วย ส่งผลทําให้ได้คาความถูกต้องของการทํานายสูง่ โดยมีคา่ R2 ที่ 0.96 และคา่ ประสิทธิภาพ Nash-Sutcliffe (E) ที่ 0.94 สําหรับวัตถุประสงค์ที่สอง แผนที่นํ้าท่วมได้ถูกสร้างขึ้นโดยอาศัยข้อมูลระดับนํ้าในลํานํ้าที่ คํานวณจากปริมาณนํ้าท่าจําลองในเดือนกนยายนั 2548 ซึ่งพบวาจากระดับนํ่ ้าท่าจําลองที่สถานี P1 ควรต้องมีนํ้าท่วมจากแม่นํ้าเกิดขึ้นสี่ครั้ง โดยคาสูงสุดของระดับนํ่ ้าประจําเดือนที่สถานี P1 อยูที่่ 305.23 เมตรเหนือระดับนํ้าทะเลปานกลาง การเปรียบเทียบผลของแผนที่พื้นที่นํ้าท่วมจาก แบบจําลองและจากแผนที่พื้นที่อ้างอิงที่ทํานายไว้ แสดงให้เห็นวาทั่ ้งคูมีระดับความความสอดคล้อง่ ของผลที่เป็นพื้นที่ถูกนํ้าท่วมตรงกนอยูั ในระดับปานกลางประมาณร้อยละ่ 58.9 II สําหรับวัตถุประสงค์ที่สาม การศึกษาในเบื้องต้นพบวา่ ทุกกรณีศึกษาที่เกี่ยวกบการผันแปรั ของ LULC และความเข้มนํ้าฝนที่มีผลกระทบน้อยมากต่อข้อมูลนํ้าท่าจําลองรายวันที่สถานี P1 แต่ ปรากฏผลชัดเจนต่อปริมาณนํ้าท่าจําลองที่สถานี P21 อยางไรก่ ตาม็ ผลกระทบดังกล่าวได้ปรากฏ ชัดเจนขึน หากการผันแปรดังกล่าวถูกกาหนดให้เกํ ิดนอกเขตพืนที่ศึกษาซึ่งยังคงอยูในพื่ นที่ระบาย ้ ้ ้ นํ้าเดียวกนของสถานีั P1 ทั้งนี้แนวโน้มที่สังเกตได้คือปริมาณนํ้าท่าจําลองจะมีคาสูงขึ่ ้นตามระดับ ของการสูญเสียป่าไม้และปริมาณฝนที่สูงขึ้น โดยผลกระทบจากการเปลี่ยนแปลงแหล่านี้เห็นได้ ชัดเจนที่สถานี P1 แต่ยังไม่สามารถสรุปได้อยางชัดเจนที่สถานี่ P21 สาขาวิชา การรับรู้จากระยะไกล ลายมือชื่อนักศึกษา_______________________ ปีการศึกษา 2554 ลายมือชื่ออาจารย์ที่ปรึกษา________________ ลายมือชื่ออาจารย์ที่ศึกษาร่วม_______________ WICHAN PHANDEE : DEVELOPMENT OF GRID-BASED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON FLOOD IN CHIANG MAI MUNICIPALITY AREA. THESIS ADVISOR : ASST. PROF. SONGKOT DASANANDA, Ph.D. 239 PP. HYDROLOGICAL MODEL/FLOOD MODEL/GIS/CA-MARKOV MODEL/ IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE ON FLOOD There are three main objectives of this research: (1) to develop grid-based hydrologic model capable of simulating realistic runoff scenarios (on monthly and daily basis) using GIS-based input data, (2) to generate associated flood maps of the Chiang Mai municipality during September 2005 based on the simulated runoff discharge data and the relevant rating curves, (3) to examine impact of the land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes on runoff discharges and the associated flood maps based on the predicted LULC maps derived by CA-Markov model and probable increase of rainfall. The selected study area is part of the upper Ping Basin with the area about 1,120 km2 and covering Chiang Mai Municipality area. For the first objective, it was found from results of the five case studies chosen for the development of the monthly model that the preferred model was not sensitive much with the variation of soil depth but strongly dependent on amount and variation of rainfall intensity. The sub-surface runoff factor was also found very essential in the model’s formulation in order to obtain the more realistic results. The daily model was adopted from the optimum monthly model in two case studies of model development IV which the transpiration was alternative factor to include in the model. This model development made the model to have relatively high accuracy of the simulated runoff data with R2 of 0.96 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E) of 0.94. For the second objective, the flood maps were developed based on data of the water level in the stream channel calculated from the simulated daily stream discharge data in September 2005. It was found that, regarding to the simulated water level at the P1 station, there should be four river flood events seen in this month with the highest water level 305.23 m. above mean sea level (MSL). The comparison of predicted flood map and chosen reference flood map showed moderate level agreement of about 58.93% on the identified flooded area. For the third part, it was preliminarily found that all the applied case studies of LULC and rainfall changes have little impact on the simulated discharge at the P1 station but they have obvious effect on the modeled discharges at P21 station. However, the impact was more obvious if those preferred changes were applied to zones outside the study area but still situated within the same drainage area of the P1 station. The observed trends were that amount of the simulated discharge increase with higher percentage of deforestation and the increase of rainfall. The impacts from these changes were highly pronounced at the P1 station but still inconclusive at the P21 station. School of Remote Sensing Student’s Signature________________ Academic Year 2011 Advisor’s Signature________________ Co-advisor’s Signature______________ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I wish to express my sincere gratitude to my major advisor, Asst. Prof. Dr. Songkot Dasananda, and co-advisor, Asst. Prof. Dr. Chatchai Jothityangkoon, for their support, guidance, and valuable suggestions throughout this study. I would also like to thank Asst. Prof. Dr. Sunya Sarapirome, a committee chairperson, for his several useful comments on my work. And I wish to extend my special thanks to the other committee members, Asst. Prof. Dr. Suwit Ongsomwang and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kampanad Bhaktikul for their contributions to my study. I would also like to thank the following organizations for providing essential data required in the research: Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD), Department of Ground Water Resources (DGWR), Royal Irrigation Department (RID), Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), Royal Irrigation Department (RID), Department of Water Resources (DWR), Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), and Land Development Department (LDD). Constant helps and advices given by Mr. Rawee Rattanakom, Miss. Siriwan Ruamkeaw, Mr. Nutthapol Junkaew, Mr. Tharapong Phetprayoon and Mr. Kraisri Tenpuksee from the early stage of this research till the end are also very much appreciated. To complete the thesis, my great thanks are also due to Dr. Apiradee Saravisutra, Mrs. Sirilak Tanang, Ms. Ratchaneekorn ChatUthai and all friends at the School of Remote Sensing, for their help and being good friends for long time. VI Thanks are also due to the School of Remote Sensing, Institute of Science, Suranaree University of Technology, for giving me the opportunity to pursue a Ph.D. program in geoinformatics and to learn more about geoinformatics techniques which are useful for my work and duty in the future. Also, I would like to thank the Nakhon Ratchasima Ratjabat University
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