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Supply and Demand Prospects for the Major Syrian Agricultural Products

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Supply and Demand Prospects for the Major Syrian Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Prospects for the Major Syrian Agricultural Products By Carlo Cafiero* *Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II and FAO consultant With the assistance of: Basima Atiya, Samir Grad, Haitham Al-Ashkar and Ahmad Sadiddin** ** National Agricultural Policy Center Final version April 1, 2009 i Table of Contents Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................... iv List of tables ....................................................................................................................................................... v List of figures ................................................................................................................................................... vii Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Maps of Syria .....................................................................................................................................................3 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 7 II. Supply ....................................................................................................................................................... 10 II.1. The main factors conditioning current and future agricultural production in Syria .................. 10 II.1.1. Natural environment ................................................................................................................. 10 II.1.2. Social and economic conditions ................................................................................................ 25 II.1.3. Public policies ............................................................................................................................ 30 II.2. The current situation..................................................................................................................... 38 II.2.1. Wheat ........................................................................................................................................ 38 II.2.2. Cotton ........................................................................................................................................ 46 II.2.3. Barley ......................................................................................................................................... 54 II.2.4. Olives and olive oil .................................................................................................................... 60 II.2.5. Fruits, vegetables and spices ................................................................................................... 64 III. Demand .............................................................................................................................................. 70 III.1. The main factors conditioning food consumption in Syria ......................................................... 70 III.1.1. Current consumption ............................................................................................................... 70 III.2. Possible evolution of food consumption in Syria ........................................................................ 78 IV. Elements for the creation of a structural model of Syrian Agriculture .......................................... 80 IV.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 80 IV.2. Representative farming systems .................................................................................................. 81 IV.3. Mathematical programming models of agricultural production in Syria .................................. 82 IV.4. Preliminary results......................................................................................................................... 83 IV.4.1. The impact of wheat price change on wheat output and total water use ....................... 84 IV.4.2. The impact of cotton price change on cotton output and total water use ...................... 86 IV.4.3. The impact of introducing cumin on water use .................................................................. 88 IV.4.4. The impact of modernizing the irrigation schemes on water use ..................................... 89 IV.4.5. The impact of changing water costs on water use ............................................................ 90 IV.4.6. The impact of changing water costs on the outputs of cotton and wheat ....................... 91 ii V. Mid term prospects ................................................................................................................................ 93 V.1. Global prospects of major agricultural commodities .................................................................. 94 V.1.1. Wheat ........................................................................................................................................ 95 V.1.2. Cotton ........................................................................................................................................ 97 V.1.3. Fruits and Vegetables ............................................................................................................... 98 V.2. Prospects for Syrian agricultural production and exports ......................................................... 99 V.2.1. Wheat and other winter crops ................................................................................................ 100 V.2.2. Cotton and other summer crops ............................................................................................ 100 V.2.3. Barley and other feed crops .....................................................................................................101 V.2.4. Fruits, Vegetables and Olive Oil ...............................................................................................101 VI. Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................................................ 103 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 105 iii Acronyms ASA Annual Agricultural Statistical Abstract CMO Cotton Marketing Organisation CBS Central Bureau of Statistics DAE Directorate of Agricultural Economics, MAAR DPS Directorate of Planning and Statistics, MAAR GCB General Company for Bakeries GCM General Company for Mills GESILOS General Company for Silos, Feed Mills and Seed Plants GEC General Establishment for Consumption GECPT General Establishment for Cereals Processing and Trade GEF General Establishment for Feed GESM General Establishment for Seed Multiplication GOS General Organization for Sugar GFTOCF General Foreign Trade Organization for Chemicals and Foodstuffs MAAR Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform MSIT Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade NAPC National Agricultural Policy Centre SAC Supreme Agricultural Council SADB Syrian Agricultural Data Base of NAPC SP Syrian Pound iv List of tables Table 1 Characteristics of agro-climatic zones in Syria (2005) ........................................................................ 11 Table 2 Total Area by Agro-climatic zone and by geographical regions and governorates (ha) ................ 12 Table 3 Uncultivated land (uncultivable, pastures and steppe) by Agro-climatic zone and by geographical region and governorates (ha) ................................................................................ 13 Table 4 A gricultural la nd by A gro-climatic z one and b y geographical region a nd g overnorates (ha) ................................................................................................................................................. 14 Table 5 Consequences of the climatic variation on yields of the most important crops ............................ 16 Table 6 Major crops by agro-climatic zone (ha, 2005) .................................................................................. 18 Table 7 Major rivers entering, bordering and leaving Syria .......................................................................... 19 Table 8 Water balance per basin (million m3) ................................................................................................ 22 Table 9 Proportions of water use by sector and basin (%) ............................................................................ 22 Table 10 Proportions of available water resources and irrigated areas by basin and water source .......... 23 Table 11 Water utilization breakdown by basin .............................................................................................. 23 Table 12 Per-hectare utilized water of irrigated land and irrigated cropping area by basin ........................ 24 Table 13 Areas of most important irrigated crops by basin in 2005 (ha) ...................................................... 24 Table 14 Water balance in Syria ...................................................................................................................... 24 Table 15 interest rates adopted by the ACB according to loan term and activity .......................................
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