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Strategic Water Iraq and Security Planning in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin

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Strategic Water Iraq and Security Planning in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin Strategic Water Iraq and Security Planning in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin Frederick Lorenz and Edward J. Erickson Strategic Water Iraq and Security Planning in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin Frederick Lorenz and Edward J. Erickson NE C RI OR A P M S U S N S I V E E P R R S I T Y Marine Corps University Press Quantico, Virginia DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the organizations for which they work, Marine Corps University, the U.S. Marine Corps, the Department of the Navy, or the U.S. Government. The information and Web site addresses contained in this book were accurate at the time of printing. Published by Marine Corps University Press 3078 Upshur Avenue Quantico, VA 22134 www.mcu.usmc.mil/mcu_press 1st Printing, 2013 PCN 10600009500 ISBN 978-0-9911588-0-5 Contents Foreword by General Anthony C. Zinni, USMC (Ret.) ..........................v Preface .......................................................................................................vii Acknowledgments .....................................................................................ix Introduction Water and the Future of Iraq............................................................1 Chapter 1 The Euphrates-Tigris Basin and Its History ..................................17 Chapter 2 Geopolitics in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin ......................................41 Chapter 3 Projected Water Demand and the Impact of Climate Change ....87 —iii— Chapter 4 Iraq and the Hidden Issue: Kurdish Control of the Tigris .........143 Chapter 5 Hydropolitics .....................................................................................157 Chapter 6 Law, Science, and Diplomacy ..........................................................193 Chapter 7 The Approaching Crisis and a Framework for Action ................237 Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................269 Bibliography ..............................................................................................273 Index .........................................................................................................293 About the Authors ....................................................................................309 —iv— Foreword After the final phase of drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq, it is important to do what we can to help maintain a level of stability and to look ahead to emerging security threats. Strategic Water: Iraq and Security Planning in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin by Frederick Lorenz and Edward J. Erickson makes an important contribution to this effort by taking a close look at a serious problem that is often neglected—the decline in freshwater avail- ability and its impact on regional security. With convincing authority, the authors make it clear that the situation in Iraq is deteriorating much faster than expected, and in a few years much of Iraq’s water supply will be un- drinkable, largely due to high salinity levels. This book not only predicts a crisis, it provides some details on what that crisis might look like: an ugly mix of human suffering, governmental instability, population movement, and a rise in extremist violence. Despite the fact that the United States may have less influence in Iraq in the short term, we cannot deny that it remains a vital U.S. interest to keep the region secure. And there are things that can be done in the short term to help avoid the worst-case scenario. Environmental security is an emerging mission for the U.S. military; for these nontraditional missions, we need problem solvers and innovators. We have to constantly look beyond the short-term problems and try to identify the security issues that will become critical in the years ahead. In the Euphrates-Tigris basin we have an extraordinary situation when the actions of our NATO ally, Turkey, might negatively impact the water —iv— —v— supply in the country we have worked so hard to stabilize, Iraq. Ineffec- tive water management from a lack of experience and a lack of modern technology is only part of the problem. Cultural barriers exist to effi- cient water use, and Islamic tradition tells us that water should not be sold or controlled. As we look to each new crisis, there seems to be an underlying element of water or resource scarcity that seems to make the problem unsolvable. This book not only identifies a threat that is not often analyzed, it also makes detailed recommendations on how to deal with it effectively. In the final chapter, Lorenz and Erickson prioritize what needs to be done and describe the relative cost and probable chance of success for each option. For each alternative, they provide a definition of “success” and the prob- able impact if progress is made. Two key recommendations are empha- sized: the need for better coordination of our efforts and more effective use of technology—the science and diplomacy linkage. The U.S. military’s budget is now in full retreat, and the amount of re- sources available for foreign aid will be in steady decline in the next few years. But the problems of water scarcity and the resulting instability in the Middle East will certainly be on the rise. Our nation will face some difficult choices in the years ahead, and this book contains the type of analysis that our leaders should embrace. It should be required reading for those who recognize the strategic importance of Iraq and want to un- derstand the emerging water scarcity threat. General Anthony C. Zinni, USMC (Ret.) —vi— Preface As we write this preface in the summer of 2013, the Arab world continues to be shaken by unrest and political instability, with no clear resolution in sight. In two countries critical to our study—Syria and Iraq—the changes are swift and present major challenges to U.S. foreign policy. The govern- ment of Syria has defied international efforts to help resolve an increas- ingly deadly conflict. Many predict the Syrian government will soon fall, but the Assad regime has shown surprising resiliency. In Iraq there are signs of economic development, but underlying divisions within the gov- ernment, sectarian attacks, and corruption remain obstacles to progress. This book is about water security in a broad context and is much more than a simple discussion of access to water. The National Intelligence Council recently issued a report noting that water challenges could trigger social disruption, and in some states where other stressors exist, state failure is possible. In the Middle East, water security is closely entwined with po- litical stability, and it will become increasingly important to U.S. national interests. This work is designed to focus attention on Iraq and to make detailed recommendations on what can be done to assist. Political instability in Syria and Iraq will undoubtedly complicate the picture described within these pages, and perhaps delay the time when the regimes can effectively deal with water issues. Yet the fundamental —vi— —vii— assumptions, analysis, and recommendations in this book remain un- changed, despite the fast-paced changes in the region. Water scarcity and insecurity will be driven by inevitable demographic and hydrolog- ical factors that can be predicted with some degree of certainty. Action needs to be taken soon, well before the regional political situation is fully resolved. —viii— Acknowledgments This project began in 1997 with funding from the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies while the authors were on active duty and Frederick Lorenz was on the faculty of the National Defense University. This initial grant was used for travel to the region and a research project that was published in 1999 by National Defense University Press as The Euphrates Triangle: Security Implications of the Southeastern Anatolia Project. In that publication, we benefited from the assistance of Brian R. Shaw, Aaron T. Wolf, and John F. Kolars, and we have tried to build on that foun- dation as we prepared this book. In 2004 and 2005, we were again able to travel to the region with funding from the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. European Command. We would like to thank the staff of the U.S. embassies in Ankara, Turkey; Damascus, Syria; and Baghdad, Iraq, for their assistance in arranging travel and making contacts in the local area. We are indebted to Dr. J. A. “Tony” Allan, whose groundbreaking research and writing had a major influence on this book. Over the past four years, students in the Water and Security in the Middle East course and faculty at the Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington in Seattle made valuable comments on early drafts of this work. We are also indebted to our editor, Shawn Vreeland, for his superb atten- tion to detail and his suggestions on making this a better book. This book has been “a long time coming,” and Shawn’s continued support and stick- to-it attitude have been instrumental in seeing it through to publication. We also thank our graphic designer, Rob Kocher, for his creative layout and design suggestions. —viii— —ix— Introduction Water and the Future of Iraq “And its water was dried up” Although the title of this section comes from the book of Revelation 16:12 (“Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up”), it is meant neither as a prediction nor as a prophecy. As a matter of course, in today’s world a river does not have to actually “dry up” to affect people’s lives. Water may be diverted for industrial, agricultural, or domestic needs. Rivers may be so polluted by human activities as to become nonpotable or clinically “dead.” Aquifers may become depleted or unusable due to high salt or chemical levels. Ex- cessive damming of rivers may lead to microclimate change, siltation, and habitat disturbances. In fact, it is rare for rivers to dry up, but some once- mighty rivers—such as the Jordan and the Colorado—have no discernible outflow at their terminus today and have effectively “dried up.” Human interventions, usage, and diversions have already altered the flow of the earth’s waters in significant ways, and the impact is not yet fully under- stood.
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