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Africa's Oil & Gas Scene After the Boom January 2019: ISSUE 117 Africa’s oil and gas scene has This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum AFRICA'S OIL & GAS undergone dramatic changes over explores the aftermath of Africa’s SCENE AFTER THE BOOM: the past two decades. In 2000, the energy boom. It draws on contributors continent was producing nearly 8 from industry, academia, and civil WHAT LIES AHEAD million barrels per day (b/d). A society to offer multiple views of the decade later, largely on the back of opportunities and challenges that lie new production from Angola and ahead for oil and gas development on Contents Sudan, output rose to above 10 the African continent. The issue Introduction 1 million b/d. This came at the same examines continuities and changes in Luke Patey & Ricardo Soares de Oliveira time as a sharp rise in global oil the African energy landscape since oil Prospects for African oil 4 prices, generating enormous prices fell from record highs after 2014. James McCullagh and Virendra Chauhan revenues for African oil producers It focuses on the politics and The political economy of decline in Nigeria and Angola 6 and setting off exploration activities economics of seasoned producers in Ricardo Soares de Oliveira in largely unexplored regions. As sub-Saharan Africa and the birth of new Angola after Dos Santos 8 prices rose to over $100 per barrel oil and gas producers and up-and- Lucy Corkin on average from 2010 to 2014, comers, and shows that while old Nigeria’s oil reforms in limbo 10 Africa enjoyed an unprecedented oil political and security challenges persist, Eklavya Gupte boom. new governance and regional risks are The rise of regional risk also impacting the development of new in East Africa 12 In recent years, however, Africa’s oil and gas industries. Luke Patey oil fortunes have fallen. Due to Oil politics and stoppages in Kenya 14 conflict in Libya and South Sudan, The outlook is not good. The key Charles Wanguhu as well as stagnating production in producers in sub-Saharan Africa, Mozambique: Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria and Angola, face ageing bankrupt before the bonanza 16 oilfields and a lack of new investments, Anne Frühauf Nigeria, output dropped to 8 million b/d in 2017, and prices averaged not to mention the need for Challenging prospects for upstream considerable reform. Meanwhile, in up- contracting in Tanzania 19 roughly $50 per barrel from 2015 to Peter Bofin and 2017. A price recovery could spark and-coming producers in East Africa, Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen renewed interest in exploration, but Uganda and Kenya, although the Resurgent resource nationalism in the past three lacklustre years have relatively small reserves discovered to Tanzania’s petroleum sector 22 date will not displace Africa’s main had a damaging impact on the Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen & production centres, future output is still Thabit Jacob continent’s oil and gas industry. important in the development of Even with sustained high oil prices, Oil, politics, and risk in Ghana 25 domestic economies in the region. But Monica Skaten it will take time to recover. long delays from a failure of The new African energy landscape 27 Lapo Pistelli January 2019: ISSUE 117 – AFRICA’S OIL & GAS SCENE AFTER THE BOOM neighbouring countries and price recovery, this neglect will now Nigeria’s oil reforms in limbo international oil companies to take its toll on Africa’s overall Militancy, ageing oilfields, the need for cooperate on a regional pipeline have production. governance reforms, and a lack of new stalled these industries from moving to investments have all hampered the production stage. In gas, falling The political economy of decline in Nigeria’s oil industry, Africa’s largest prices and governance challenges have Nigeria and Angola producer. Eklavya Gupte examines stalled Mozambique and Tanzania from Ricardo Soares de Oliveira looks at the how insurgency in the Niger Delta may developing their considerable offshore legacies of the 2004–2014 oil boom once again heat up. President Buhari assets. and the manner in which the post-2014 has pushed for a new amnesty program bust has impacted Africa’s oil Oil and gas developers in Africa will for fighters in the Delta, but the stakes producers. Zooming in on Angola and soldier on. Some new producers, such will only grow higher as Nigerians head Nigeria, he shows that different as Ghana, will continue to provide to the polls in 2019. Nigerian light patterns of macroeconomic bright spots on the continent. But sweet crude attracts a large number of management and sector governance, political and security risks will also buyers, particularly in Europe and India. as well as dissimilar political pressures, continue to drag down Africa’s energy But amidst the threat of militancy, the have led to differences in outcomes for potential. The priorities of national long-awaited Petroleum Industry these leading producers. However, leaders and international oil companies Governance Bill must be passed before Soares de Oliveira’s analysis will clash around the development of the oil industry gets the boost it needs. new resources. And consequently, the emphasizes the shared patterns across these and other oil-rich states in sub- The rise of regional risk in East selectivity shown by domestic and Africa foreign investors will narrow, Saharan Africa. In the absence of particularly if global energy prices are economic diversification in the boom Moving to up-and-coming producers in years, dysfunctional sector institutions, volatile in the coming decade. The East Africa, Luke Patey finds that the combined efforts of government and and continued dependence on foreign interaction between domestic and industry will be needed to mitigate the oil expertise, states across the board regional risk has done much to shape have suffered significantly in fiscal political and security risks in oil and the future of individual oil industries. gas, win new investment and finance, terms as well as with the drying up of Despite aspirations to cooperate on a and drive forward the next stage of corporate investment in the oil sector. new pipeline with Kenya, South Sudan, Africa’s energy development: the Angola after dos Santos: taking in the midst of civil war, will remain growth of renewables and local energy stock dependent on negotiating access to markets. pipelines heading through its northern One country struggling with stagnating neighbour, Sudan. Landlocked Uganda Prospects for African oil production levels is Angola. Lucy has started the process of developing a Corkin examines how Angola’s change James McCullagh and Virendra new pipeline through Tanzania, but this of political leadership in 2017, with Chauhan begin the issue with a sober regional cooperation continues to be Eduardo dos Santos stepping down forecast on the coming years for the delayed by President Museveni’s hard after 38 years of rule, will impact its oil African oil business. Africa has never bargaining with international oil industry. The new leader, João Manuel really stood out as a significant oil companies. Finally, after years of Gonçalves Lourenço, has, to some region, with only 9 per cent of total discussions, a failed bid to cooperate surprise, started to dismantle the proven reserves, and that trend is likely with Uganda has dashed Kenya’s patronage network established under to continue. Up-and-coming producers, hopes of acting as a regional hub for dos Santos. He has also initiated much- such as Uganda and Kenya, have East Africa’s oil. After losing Uganda’s needed reform of the oil sector, relatively small reserves, and it will be support for a new regional pipeline, particularly by starting to eliminate the usual suspects—Nigeria, Angola, Kenya will now have to fend for itself in conflicts of interest in Sonangol, the Libya, and Algeria—that make up the attracting investors in a stand-alone powerful state oil company, and the majority of future production. But these pipeline from its oilfields in Turkana to country’s regulators. This is already large producers will experience sagging the coast. results over the next three to five years. helping to draw in new investment. Yet Low oil prices in recent years have the persistence of graft and nepotism under Lourenço demonstrates that discouraged new investment in their maturing oilfields. Despite the 2018 even with a change in leadership, not everything will be made new in Angola. OXFORD ENERGY FORUM 2 January 2019: ISSUE 117 – AFRICA’S OIL & GAS SCENE AFTER THE BOOM Oil politics and stoppages in Kenya: largely out of sync with the downturn in Voltaian Basin. Political polarization agreeing to disagree again soon? global markets. New regulatory bodies between Ghana’s two main political Kenya’s drive to become an oil exporter have led to institutional crowding, and parties, however, could undermine the in the near future has been slowed by restrictive legislation has resulted in the industry’s long-term development. more than just regional competition. government not playing a productive Changes in government result in Charles Wanguhu examines how role in the industry’s development. changes in economic policy, key international oil companies operating in President Magufuli’s State House is personnel in state-owned companies, Kenya’s north-western region of now the primary place where large and contract recipients in the domestic Turkana have struggled to navigate international oil companies are private sector. negotiating access and terms and longstanding tensions between national The new African energy landscape: leaning on their home governments for and local politicians as well as to catching the changing tide maintain amicable relations with local help. The interventionist president adds The issue ends with a look to the communities. Several stoppages due to a fair amount of unpredictability to the future.
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