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The Only Way Is Up

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The Only Way Is Up DTZ Research PROPERTY TIMES The only way is up Ukraine H1 2016 In H1 2016, economic recovery in Ukraine has become evident, despite unresolved conflict in the east, which however was contained within some areas of Donbas region. Economic growth in Ukraine was registered at 0.1% in Q1 2016, 9 August 2016 and in accordance with preliminary estimates reached 1% in Q2 2016. Oxford Economics projects that real GDP will increase by 1.5% in 2016 and will be Contents followed by 2.5-3% annual economic growth in 2017-2019. Economic Overview 2 Following the trend witnessed in 2015, during 2016 many occupiers were active on the office property market in Kyiv, aiming to take advantage of the current market Offices 4 situation and improve their occupational condition. Respectively, net absorption, Retail 10 which reflects the real change in the amount of space occupied, reached around Industrial & logistics 15 39,000 sq m (GLA) in H1 2016, being 28% higher than the figure in H1 2015 and Investment 19 more than doubling compared to net absorption during 12 months of 2014, further demonstrating the underlying market recovery. With no new delivery in the sector, Definitions 21 the primary vacancy fell from 24.3% in H1 2015 to 19.4% in June 2016 (Fig. 1). The retail property market in Ukraine was hit hard due to overall economic decline and the weakened purchasing power of the population. Nevertheless, several large-scale shopping centres are scheduled for opening in Kyiv and other regional cities in 2016-2019 providing attractive opportunities for retailers and food and leisure operators to penetrate Ukraine’s market. Despite a very low development activity in the logistics property sector in the Greater Kyiv area, the market-wide vacancy remained at around 10% in H1 2016 due to suppressed business dynamics in Ukraine, whilst rents in the sector were subject to some downward correction in the US dollar equivalent. Despite unresolved conflict in the east and economic challenges, in H2 2015 investors’ interest to opportunities on the property market in Ukraine strengthened, and the positive dynamics continued in H1 2016. DTZ expects that in 2016 total volume of secondary investment transactions in the sector will be in the range of UDS 69-130 million. Figure 1 Office take-up, overall market vacancy and prime rent in Kyiv Authors Marta Kostiuk Director, Research and Development Consulting +38 (0)44 220 30 60 [email protected] Victoria Vlasova Research Analyst +38 (0)44 220 30 60 [email protected] Source: DTZ Research Note: All figures are year-end www.dtz.com Property Times 1 Ukraine H1 2016 Macroeconomic background Figure 2 Macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine (%) Economic growth Aggravated by the conflict in the east and sharp depreciation of the hryvnya, in Q1 2015 the economic recession in Ukraine deepened. During the remainder of 2015, Ukraine’s economy remained weak, but the first signs of stabilization were apparent and the pace of economic decline moderated. In accordance with the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, in 2015 real GDP declined by (-9.9%) year-on-year. Nevertheless, in H2 2015 the experts of Oxford Economics recognised some success for the year-old reform programme in Ukraine. In H1 2016, economic recovery in Ukraine has become evident, despite unresolved conflict in the east, which however was contained within some areas of Donbas region. In Q1 2016, economic growth was registered at 0.1%. Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, Oxford Economics In accordance with the preliminary estimations, real GDP increased by 1% in Q2 2016. * Forecast Note: Since June 2014, the data excludes the Crimea, which was As of July 2016, Oxford Economics projected that real GDP will increase by 1.5% in 2016 and will be followed by 2.5-3% annexed by Russia. The data for 2015 and 2016 excludes the Crimea annual economic growth in 2017-2019. and the conflict zone in the Donbas region. The draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2017, which was approved by the government in June 2016, is based on the projection Retail sales of the economic growth in 2017 at 3%. In 2015, retail sales in Ukraine decreased by (-20.7%) year-on- Ukraine remains dependent on the USD 17.5 billion IMF loan, year following the contraction by (-8.9%) in 2014. Negative which was approved in March 2015 to support the Ukrainian dynamics of the retail sector in 2015 resulted from overall government’s economic program. After the review of the economic recession in Ukraine, consumer price inflation, authorities’ performance under the programme, the IMF allocated sharp devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnya and decrease the second tranche amounting to USD 1.7 billion in early in real household incomes, combined with uncertainty over August 2015 with the third tranche expected during 2016. further development of the country related to the military conflict in the East. The expectations of business community for the long term economic development of Ukraine remain largely positive, Starting from March 2016 the negative dynamics reversed, and in view of the country’s potential. in H1 2016 retail sales grew by 2.3% year-on-year compared to the contraction by (-24.6%) registered in January-June 2015. Industrial production Inflation In 2015, industrial production in Ukraine contracted by (-13%) year-on-year, while production outside the conflict regions has Consumer price inflation slowed to 4.9% in June 2016 since been gradually stabilizing. Since August 2015 until the year-end December 2015, compared to 40.7% in the respective period of the rate of decline in the sector eased. 2015. Major sources of price inflation during 2015 were sharp depreciation of the hryvnya and the resultant increase in prices In January-June 2016, industrial production demonstrated for imported goods, increase in the state-regulated tariffs and a nominal growth of 2% year-on-year, mainly due to low high inflation expectations. comparative base. As of July 2016, Oxford Economics forecasted consumer price As of July 2016, Oxford Economics projected that industrial inflation to reach 18% in 2016 for the full year due to higher production in Ukraine will grow by 3.5% in 2016 and 5.5% import costs and lower subsidies, 11.1% in 2017 and in 2017. below 10% in 2018. Agriculture The State Budget of Ukraine for 2016 is based on the projection In 2015, agricultural output in all categories of agricultural of the inflation in 2016 at 12%. The draft State Budget for 2017 enterprises in Ukraine decreased by (-4.8%) year-on-year envisages that consumer price inflation will be at 8.9% in 2017. compared to the annual growth by 2.2% in 2014. In view of lower inflation in Q2 2016, the National Bank of In H1 2016, agricultural output decreased by (-0.3%) year-on- Ukraine further lowered interest rate to 16.5% in June 2016 from year, compared to the sharp contraction by (-9.3%) in H1 2015. 18% in May 2016, 19% in April 2016 and 22-30% in H2 2015. Oxford Economics projects that agricultural exports are set for In accordance with Oxford Economics, lower interest rate will steady growth in Ukraine, which will help to realise development strengthen financial positions of commercial banks in Ukraine, potential of the sector. predetermining faster commercial credit growth from 2017. www.dtz.com Property Times 2 Ukraine H1 2016 Labour market Figure 3 In accordance with the ILO methodology, the unemployment Annual dynamics of currency exchange rates, inflation rate in Ukraine reached 9.1% in 2015, decreasing from 9.3% and nominal salaries in Ukraine (%) in 2014. In accordance with Oxford Economics, unemployment rate is expected to further decrease to 8.5% in 2017 and around 7% in 2018-2019. In 2015, real salaries in Ukraine decreased by (-20.2%) year- on-year, whilst during the first six months of 2016 positive dynamics were recorded with real salaries increasing by 6.1%. According to data published by the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, the average nominal monthly salary in Ukraine in January-June 2016 was UAH 4,838 (equivalent to around USD 194 based on the official exchange rate in June 2016), since December 2015 increasing by 15% in the hryvnya equivalent and by around 9% in the US dollar equivalent. When analysing household income in Ukraine, it is worth noting Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine that a considerable unregistered ‘grey’ salary segment exists. * Forecast Note: Since June 2014, the data for 2014 excludes the Crimea, which National currency was annexed by Russia. The data for 2015 excludes the Crimea During the year from the first quarter of 2014, the Ukrainian and the conflict zone in the Donbas region. hryvnya was subject to significant devaluation. During Q2 2015 and Q3 2015 the official exchange rate varied in the range of 20.5-23.5 UAH/USD. Devaluation to 24 UAH/USD was registered at the end of 2015, but in January 2016 the official Figure 4 exchange rate stabilised at around 23.5 UAH/USD (Fig. 3). Gross FDI by industries in Ukraine, as of 1 April 2016 The official exchange rate was in the range of 23-27 UAH/USD during H1 2016, stabilising at around 25 UAH/USD in June. The experts of Oxford Economics consider that lower inflation and export revival will help to keep the Ukrainian hryvnya stable at around current levels during 2016, but currency and inflation risks will remain high until IMF support is reconfirmed. The State Budget for 2016 is based on the average exchange rate of 24.1 UAH/USD during the year.
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