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Kyiv & Regions Retail Market, H1 2020

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Kyiv & Regions Retail Market, H1 2020 Ukraine RESEARCH REPORT, H1 2020 Kyiv & Regions Retail Market, H1 2020 Adverse Impact of COVID-19 on Sales Volume Results in Higher Demand for Turnover-Linked Leases Total Stock Vacancy Prime Rent 1.4 mio 6.6% $85-110 sqm (+6.3% YTD) (+2.1 pp YTD) sqm/month Demand In the beginning of 2020, the overall sentiment of b.young (Mid-Range Fashion brand) and the retail market was quite sound up until Fransa (Value Denim brand), a Polish brand February, with consumer demand continued to 4F (Specialist Clothing) and a US brand Vans expand, thereby stimulating growth of retail (Specialist Clothing). The long-awaited turnover by +11.1% y-o-y in January-February. opening of Swedish DIY furniture brand However, the COVID-19 pandemic weighed heavily IKEA was announced for H2 2020 after on the national retail market starting from March, initial launch of online store in the eventually resulting in the modest +1.7% YTD Kyiv beginning of the year. The retailer is retail turnover expansion by the end of H1, the expected to occupy approximately 5,000 sqm lowest it has been since 2015. Real wage index in the capital’s Blockbuster Mall in the shrank considerably by the end of H1, albeit still format of IKEA city store. remaining positive (103.8) and roughly in line with the CPI (103.9), which has reached nearly historic Before the lockdown necessitated by COVID- lows due to sound monetary policy on the part of 19, a few major trends were evident on the NBU over the last several years. market. In food retailing, traditional grocery retailers were gradually substituted by modern Bricks-and-mortar fashion segment saw modest retail chains. Modernization of existing stores development dynamics, with only a handful new was also an ongoing trend, with increasingly brands entering the market this year to date. Most more stores providing self-service checkouts notable market entries were two Danish brands across the city. Clothing)Figure 1: Kyiv Wages, Retail Turnover and Consumer Price Index (% change, y-o-y)¹ % Wages Retail turnover² CPI 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020* ¹ Excluding the temporarily occupied territories, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol and part of the anti-terrorist operation zone. ² Includes organized retail sales only; *Latest available data as of the end of June Source: Kyiv Statistics Office 2020 CBRE Ukraine Research © 2020, Expandia LLC | 1 Ukraine RESEARCH REPORT, H1 2020 In addition to faster payment turnover at cash Figure 2: Desktop and Mobile Retail Sales in Ukraine (excl registers, self-checkout areas resulted in Sales Tax) in Historic Nominal Prices (incl Inflation) optimization of space. Convenience store UAH Mio Non-Store Retailing (lhs) continued expansion galore throughout the USD Mio Non-Store Retailing (lhs) country. With the improvement in accessibility 100 000 200 of 4G mobile networks, performance of 90 000 80 000 150 e-commerce sales increased considerably, where 70 000 electronics and apparel products led in online 60 000 sales structure. According to Euromonitor 50 000 100 40 000 International data, compound annual growth 30 000 50 rate of e-commerce sales in Ukraine over the 20 000 past 5 years was averaging at ca. 27%. 10 000 0 0 Noteworthy is the fact that the Kyiv retail market also saw the development of online-to-offline Source: CBRE Ukraine commerce strategies, also known as click-and- Table 1: Cross-Border Market Entry in Kyiv Shopping Centers mortar. One of the largest online retailers in in H1 2020 Ukraine Rozetka opened their first offline store BRAND RETAIL SECTOR ENTRY LOCATION in 2017 and now operates 10+ offline shops in Kyiv. Another large Ukrainian beauty e- b.young Mid-Range Fashion River Mall commerce player Makeup announced plans to Fransa Value and Denim River Mall launch their first physical location in Kyiv, Vans Specialist Clothing River Mall looking to take up ca. 270 sqm in Atmosphera 4F Specialist Clothing Retroville SC. Source: CBRE Ukraine Supply Table 2: Potential Cross-Border Market Entry in Kyiv Shopping Centers Over the last 6 months 80,700 sqm of GLA have BRAND RETAIL SECTOR ENTRY LOCATION been added to the shopping center stock with Homeware and IKEA Sweden the single completion of Retroville SC in Kyiv, Department Stores thereby increasing total shopping center volume Kipling Specialist Clothing Belgium to 1.4mio (+6.3% YTD). According to developers’ The Kooples Luxury and Business France statements, around 493,000 sqm of new shopping center premises are currently under FLO Value and Denim Turkey construction and expected for delivery in 2020- Funday Value and Denim Russia 2021. Meanwhile, only Phase ll of April Mall (49,600 sqm) is planned to be completed in the Elisabetta Franchi Luxury and Business Italy second half of 2020. 2020 is thus set for a The Athletes Foot Specialist Clothing United States slowdown in new completions after record Stella McCartney Luxury and Business United Kingdom breaking 178,000 sqm delivered in 2019, the largest new volume supplied to the market over Coach Luxury and Business United States Homeware and the past 10 years. The opening of River Mall SC Home&You Poland in 2019 added a quality tenant mix to the Department Stores shopping center stock of the left bank of the Versace Luxury and Business Italy city, where only 23% of total competitive stock Miss Sixty Mid-Range Fashion Italy volume is located. Given such scarce Steve Madden Mid-Range Fashion United States competitive supply and a growing number of business class residential premises in Osokorky Eataly Coffee and Restaurants Italy and Posniaky districts, River Mall raised the bar Sephora Other France of shopping center competition in the area. Homeware and Debenhams United Kingdom Similarly, Piramida SC is currently undergoing Department Stores expansion works designed to enlarge the food Deichmann Specialist Clothing Germany court and create an entertainment area. Source: CBRE Ukraine 2020 CBRE Ukraine Research © 2020, Expandia LLC | 2 Ukraine RESEARCH REPORT, H1 2020 Vacancy & Rents Figure 3: Kyiv Shopping Center Stock and New Supply During the most turbulent months of lockdown Stock at the beginning of the year (lhs) between March and June, abatement requests sq m New Supply (lhs) from tenants ranged from rent holidays and % Change y-o-y (rhs) 1 600 000 35% rent reductions to adoption of OPEX-only 1 400 000 30% payments for the duration of quarantine 1 200 000 measures. Landlords, in turn, were looking into 25% 1 000 000 such occupier requests on a case-by-case basis 20% 800 000 depending on vulnerability of each individual 15% tenant. Similarly, turnover-linked terms were 600 000 10% pursued by retailers outside of the ‘essential’ 400 000 sectors in anticipation of continued slow sales 200 000 5% post quarantine. Shopping centers saw 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 landlords agreeing to temporary 20%-30% 2020F 2021F reductions in rents resulting in the lhs–left hand side; rhs–right hand side F-Forecast $60-$80/sqm/month range for prime locations Source: CBRE Ukraine and $35-$50/sqm/month range for secondary Table 3: Key Shopping Centers in the Pipeline, as of H1 2020 locations. As many consumers switched to local neighborhood alternatives for their everyday ANNOUNCED FOR DELIVERY GLA, SQ M DEVELOPER essentials during the lockdown, the most Delivered in H1 2020 80,700 significant decreases in rents were noted in Retroville 80,700 Stolitsa Group large shopping centers, in particular those H2 2020 49,600 located in the CBD. Kyivproekt April Mall (Phase II) 49,600 Development Without consideration of temporary discounts 2021 443,400 for occupiers, rents in existing long-term Mandarin Lavina Mall (Phase II) 20,000 agreements softened slightly by 5%-10% YTD. Plaza/Megaline Rents in prime shopping centers ranged Lukianivka Mall 47,000 Arricano Real Estate between $80-$110/sqm/month in H1 2020 vs Build Commerce New Ray 34,500 $85-$115/sqm/month in H2 2019; and for Group Mandarin secondary shopping centers – between Ocean Mall 100,000 $40-$60/sqm/month in H1 2020 vs $44- Plaza/Megaline $63/sqm/month in H2 2019. Average vacancy on Dragon Capital Piramida (Phase ll) 11,000 the market has increased to 6.6% (+2.1 pp YTD) Property Management primarily due to the slow take-up of new supply. Respublika 135,000 K.A.N. Development The slow-going occupation pace of premises in Retroville SC is yet another reminder of the very Retail Park Petrivka (Phase II) 7,100 CEETRUS large shopping center segment saturation in Rive Gauche (Phase ll) 56,800 CEETRUS Kyiv. Lavina Mall SEC (127,500 sqm), Ukraine’s White Lines 32,000 A Development largest shopping centre to date, was faced with a Project 840,200 similar challenge when it opened four years Mandarin prior – modest occupation of ca. 40%. This Blockbuster Mall (Phase lI) 75,000 Plaza/Megaline similarity in occupiers’ behavior at different Mandarin Hippodrome Mall 293,000 phases of the economic cycle may be indicative Plaza/Megaline of the fact that a more balanced in-person Kyiv Mall 65,200 Delice Mandarin shopping experience is on the cards. The leasing Lisova Mall 220,000 performance of another very large Blockbuster Plaza/Megaline Mandarin Mall (100,000 sqm), delivered in Q4 2019, will Peremoha Mall 150,000 Plaza/Megaline also influence the landscape of future retail Sky Mall (Phase III) 37,000 Prizma Beta development in Kyiv in particular and Ukraine Source: CBRE Ukraine at large. 2020 CBRE Ukraine Research © 2020, Expandia LLC | 3 Ukraine RESEARCH REPORT, H1 2020 Figure 4: Base Rents Range in Kyiv Prime Schemes Figure 5: Base Rents Range in Kyiv Secondary Schemes USD/sqm/month USD/sqm/month 180 100 170 85 150 80 120 112 115 110 60 60 63 60,00 100 56 95 50 90 86 86 85 45 80 80 40 40 44 75 40 42 40,00 60 66 60 33 50 54 32 20 25 25 30 0 0 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q2 2020 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q2 2020 Source: CBRE Ukraine Source: CBRE Ukraine Investment It was very quiet in the retail investment sector in such as Colin’s, IKEA and Miniso took advantage H1 2020 and unsurprisingly so.
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