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XII-35 Baltic Sea: LME #23

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XII-35 Baltic Sea: LME #23 XII Baltic Sea 499 XII-35 Baltic Sea: LME #23 S. Heileman and J. Thulin The Baltic Sea LME is the world’s largest brackish water body, covering an area of about 390,000 km2, of which 2.21% is protected (Sea Around Us 2007). The LME catchment area is four times larger than its surface area (Jansson 2003), comprising about 1.7 million km2, nearly 93% of which belongs to the nine riparian countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Sweden. The non- coastal countries in the catchment area include Belarus, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine. The LME receives freshwater from a number of large and small rivers, while saltwater enters from the North Sea along the bottom of the narrow straits between Denmark and Sweden. This creates a salinity gradient from southwest to northeast and a water circulation characterised by the inflow of saline bottom water and an outflowing surface current of brackish water. It is estimated that a renewal of the total water mass of the Baltic Sea would take about 25-35 years. A permanent stratification layer exists between the upper layer of low salinity and a deeper layer of more saline water (Stigebrandt & Wulff 1987). Book chapters on this LME have been published by Kullenberg (1986), Jansson (2003) and UNEP (2005). I. Productivity The Baltic Sea LME is a Class I, highly productive ecosystem (>300 gCm-2yr-1). This LME is characterised by its temperate climate. Large-scale meteorological conditions cause long-term fluctuations of salinity and temperature in the deep and bottom waters. Periodic inflows of North Sea water drive changes between oxic and anoxic conditions in deeper waters (Jansson 2003). The diversity, composition and distribution of the Baltic Sea biota are influenced by its brackish-water character, the two-layered water mass and variable environmental conditions. Primary production exhibits large seasonal and interannual variability (Jansson 2003, HELCOM 2002); downward trends were found for diatoms in spring and summer, whereas dinoflagellates generally increased in the Baltic proper, but decreased in the Kattegat. The phytoplankton community is represented by only a very small fraction of the world species total and approximately 10 species of zooplankton account for most of the biomass and production. The species composition of the zooplankton reflects the salinity, with more marine species (e.g., Pseudocalanus sp.) in the southern areas and brackish species (e.g., Eurytemora affinis and Bosmina longispina maritima) in the northern areas. As a result of the declining salinity, the relative abundance of small plankton species has increased in some parts of the Baltic Sea LME (Viitasalo et al. 1995). Since the 1980s, the abundance of Pseudocalanus sp. has declined in the central Baltic, whereas the abundance in spring of Temora longicornis and Acartia spp. increased (Möllmann et al. 2000, 2003). This change is unfavourable for cod recruitment (Hinrichsen et al. 2002) and herring growth (Möllmann et al. 2003, Rönkkonen et al. 2004), whereas it favours sprat, currently the dominant fish species in the Baltic Sea. Changes have been documented in the productivity of the near coastal as well as offshore waters due to eutrophication as a consequence of increased nutrient inputs (Jansson 2003). Eutrophication is the secondary driving force of biomass change in this LME (Sherman 2003). Changes in community structure of the phytoplankton have occurred, e.g., the former dominance of diatoms, especially in the spring bloom, has 500 35. Baltic Sea switched to dinoflagellates and increased blooms of cyanobacteria (Kahru et al. 1994). Among the marine mammals in the LME are grey seal (Halichoerus grypus), ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and harbour seal (P. vitulina), and a small population of harbour porpoise (Phocaena phocaena). Oceanic fronts (after Belkin et al. 2009): Several fronts (Figure XII-35.1) exist within the Baltic Sea LME (Belkin. 2004), namely the Bothnian Bay Front (BBF), Bothnian Sea Front (BSF), North Baltic Proper Front (NBPF), South Baltic Proper Front (SBPF), Gotland Front (GF), Irbe Strait Front (ISF), and Arkona Front (AF). Most fronts are topographically controlled: BBF and BSF encircle the respective depressions, while NBPF, SBPF, and GF extend along 100-m isobath that outlines the Baltic Proper basin. The ISF is situated over the outer edge of a sill that separates the Gulf of Riga from the Baltic Proper. Some fronts are distinct year-round - BSF, NBPF and SBPF- while others emerge and persist seasonally. Figure XII-35.1. Fronts of the Baltic Sea LME. AF, Arkona Front; BBF, Bothnian Bay Front; BSF, Bothnian Sea Front; GF, Gotland Front; ISF, Irbe Strait Front; NBPF, North Baltic Proper Front; SBPF, South Baltic Proper Front; WF, Western Front (most probable location). After Belkin et al. 2009. Baltic Sea LME SST (Belkin, 2009) Linear SST trend since 1957: 0.75°C. Linear SST trend since 1982: 1.35°C. The long-term 50-year warming (Figure XII-35.2) was interrupted in 1976 by an abrupt cooling of nearly 2°C over just three years. After a partial rebound, SST dropped again, by >1°C in a year, and by 1987 reached the all-time minimum of 6.4°C, more than 2°C below the previous all-time maximum of 8.7°C in 1975. The exceptionally cold spell of 1985-87 was followed by a spectacular 2.3°C rebound in just two years. This is probably the most abrupt warming observed in any LME to date. The extremely rapid warming rate of 1.5°C/year in 1986-87 provided a test of the Baltic Sea LME resilience with regard to rapid climate warming. According to HELCOM (2007), from 1861–2000 the trend for XII Baltic Sea 501 the Baltic Sea basin has been 0.08°C/decade (cf. global SST trend of 0.038°C/decade between 1850-2005, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment in 2007). Our analysis shows that the Baltic Sea warming accelerated over the last 50 years, with the average SST warming rate of 0.15°C/decade. The post-1987 warming was dramatic compared with previous years, with the average SST warming rate well over 1.0°C/decade. These results are confirmed by daily monitoring surface data (Mackenzie and Schiedek 2007): since 1985, summer SST increased three times faster than the global warming rate, and two to five times faster than other seasons’ SST. “The recent warming event is exceeding the ability of local species to adapt and is consequently leading to major changes in the structure, function and services of these ecosystems” (Mackenzie and Schiedek 2007, p.1335). As the Baltic Sea becomes warmer and fresher, “marine- tolerant species will be disadvantaged and their distributions will partially contract from the Baltic Sea; habitats of freshwater species will likely expand” (Mackenzie et al. 2007, p.1348). Figure XII-35.2. Baltic Sea LME annual mean SST (left) and SST anomaly (right), 1957-2006, based on Hadley climatology. After Belkin (2009). Baltic Sea LME Chlorophyll and Primary Productivity: The Baltic Sea LME is a Class I, highly productive ecosystem (>300 gCm-2yr-1). Figure XII-35.3. Baltic Sea LME trends in chlorophyll a (left) and primary productivity (right), 1998-2006, Valuesare colour coded to the right hand ordinate. Figure courtesy of J. O’Reilly and K. Hyde. Sources discussed p. 15 this volume. 502 35. Baltic Sea II. Fish and Fisheries In the Baltic Sea LME, cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Strattus sprattus) dominate the fish community in terms of numbers and biomass. Commercially important marine species are sprat, herring, cod, various flatfish and salmon (Salmo salar). Other important target species are sea trout (Salmo trutta), pike- perch (Stizostedion lucioperca), whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus), eel (Anguilla anguilla), bream (Abramis brama), perch (Perca fluviatilis) and pike (Esox lucius). Total reported landings in this LME showed a steady increase from the 1950s to the 1970s and the early 1980s when the landings of over 900,000 tonnes were recorded (Figure Xii-35.4). A decline in the landings was recorded in the late 1980s, down to 560,000 tonnes in 1992 due to diminished landings of Atlantic cod. This was followed by record landings in 1997 with 975,000 tonnes, almost half of which was that of European sprat (Figure XII-35.4). The landings have since declined again, with 670,000 tonnes reported for 2004. The value of the reported landings peaked in the late 1960s and the early 1970s, estimated at US$960 million (in 2000 US dollars) in 1969 (Figure XII-35.5). Figure XII-35.4. Total reported landings in the Baltic Sea LME by species (Sea Around Us 2007). Figure XII-35.5. Value of reported landings in the Baltic Sea LME by commercial groups (Sea Around Us 2007). XII Baltic Sea 503 The primary production required (PPR; Pauly & Christensen 1995) to sustain the reported landings in this LME reached 25% of the observed primary production in the mid-1980s, but has declined to less than 10% in recent years (Figure XII-35.6). The countries bordering the LME account for most of the ecological footprints, roughly corresponding to the extent of their coastlines. Figure XII-35.6. Primary production required to support reported landings (i.e., ecological footprint) as fraction of the observed primary production in the Baltic Sea LME (Sea Around Us 2007). The ‘Maximum fraction’ denotes the mean of the 5 highest values. The mean trophic level of the reported landings (i.e., the MTI; Pauly & Watson 2005) shows a significant decline from the mid 1980s to 2004 (Figure XII-35.7, top), likely due to the increased sprat landings. However, as a notable decline in Atlantic cod landings is also evident (Figure XII-35.4), and together with the decline in the mean trophic level, constitutes a case of a ‘fishing down’ of the local food webs (Pauly et al.
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