The Role of the Balcerowicz Plan in the Successful
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Local Unemployment in Poland
S U stainable R ural D evelopment & A gricultural R estructuring LOCAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN POLAND Working Paper No. 7 Mike Ingham, Hilary Ingham and Jan Herbst May 2005 Address for correspondence: Department of Economics Lancaster University Lancaster LA1 4YX e-mail: [email protected] Abstract High unemployment continues to bedevil Poland, although the national picture masks striking spatial differences that this paper seeks to explain using a panel data set for the country’s NUTS 4 level powiats. Given the economy’s somewhat peculiar configuration throughout its communist epoch, emphasis is placed on rural-urban differences. Finding a random effects estimator to be most appropriate for the observations in question, the results indicate that increases in foreign capital, investment and the concentration of agriculture are associated with lower unemployment while its opposite is characteristic, all else equal, of more rural areas and those placing greater reliance on domestic enterprise. Keywords: Regional unemployment, agriculture, rurality, industrial mix, migration. JEL Classification: J64, J69, R11, R19 1 1. Introduction Some unemployment was always expected to emerge in the transition economies; indeed, it was often seen to be a sign that restructuring was underway and that labour was being freed by the public sector for use in the private sphere (Blanchard et al., 1994). Nonetheless, it was also recognised that this near pre-requisite for economic modernisation must not force workers into prolonged periods of idleness if the twin risks of social upheaval and wasted human capital were not to become issues of concern. In the event, Poland’s headline unemployment rate has been consistently amongst the highest of the eight transition economies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) that recently acceded to membership of the EU. -
Economic Growth in the European Union
LISBON COUNCIL E-BOOK Economic Growth in the European Union By Leszek Balcerowicz (principal author), Andrzej Rzonca,´ Lech Kalina and Aleksander Łaszek Growth and Competitiveness Commission* Leszek Balcerowicz (chair) Alessandro Leipold, chief economist, the Lisbon Council William W. Lewis, director emeritus, McKinsey Global Institute Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist, OECD Holger Schmieding, chief economist, Berenberg Bank *The Growth and Competitiveness Commission is a board of senior economists working independently to produce ideas and encourage debate on growth and jobs in Europe. The work of the commission will revolve around a series of policy papers – independently authored and peer-reviewed – which will be published in 2013 and 2014. Membership in the commission does not constitute endorsement of any other member’s views or comments. LISBON COUNCIL E-BOOK Economic Growth in the European Union By Leszek Balcerowicz (principal author), Andrzej Rzonca,´ Lech Kalina and Aleksander Łaszek Leszek Balcerowicz is former finance minister (1989-1991) and deputy prime minister (1997-2000) of Poland, where he also served as the principal architect of Poland’s successful economic transformation after the collapse of communism, now commonly known as the “Balcerowicz plan.” He later served as president of the National Bank of Poland (2001-2007). The author of dozens of books and articles, he is head of the International Comparative Studies Department at the Warsaw School of Economics and chair of the Growth and Competitiveness Commission of the Lisbon Council. Andrzej Rzo´nca is a member of the monetary policy committee of the National Bank of Poland and adjunct professor at the chair of international comparative studies at the Warsaw School of Economics. -
The Minimum Wage and Unemployment in Poland: Lessons for Cuba’S Transition
THE MINIMUM WAGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN POLAND: LESSONS FOR CUBA’S TRANSITION Andrew M. Melnyk1 Poland is one of the more successful cases of transi- oped market economies. Studies of the United States tion from a centrally planned to a market economy. have also shown that this “disemployment” effect is Despite its relative success, it has one of the highest small and limited to teenagers and youth. A compre- unemployment rates in Central and Eastern Europe. hensive survey of the U.S. literature by Brown, Gil- During the post-war era Poland's official unemploy- roy and Kohen (1982) concluded that a 10 percent ment rate was negligible. Since the introduction of increase in the minimum wage will result in only a the Economic Transformation Program (ETP) in one to three percent reduction in teenage employ- January 1990, the unemployment rate has increased ment. More recent studies by Card and Krueger steadily and is currently about 15 percent. Undoubt- (1995) have questioned the relevance and accuracy of edly, the shocks associated with the ETP and the col- mainstream theory and previous empirical research, lapse of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance concluding that an increase in the minimum wage (Comecon) initially produced unemployment. How- has no effect or may actually increase employment. ever, a factor contributing to its continued increase is The response to this work has ranged from sharp Poland’s minimum wage system. Unlike any other criticism (Hamermesh 1995; Welch 1995; Kennan previously centrally planned economy (PCPE), Po- 1995; Deere et al. 1995) to calls for further research. -
OECD Employment Outlook 2014
How does POLAND compare? September 2014 OECD Employment Outlook 2014 The 2014 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook reviews recent labour market trends and short-term prospects in OECD and key emerging economies. It zooms in on how the crisis has affected earnings, provides country comparisons of job quality, examines the causes and consequences of non-regular employment, and estimates the impact of qualifications and skills on labour market outcomes For further information: www.oecd.org/employment/outlook DOI: 10.1787/empl_outlook-2014-en Labour market developments in Poland Start of the crisis (Q4 2007) Country-specific peak/trough Current value (Q2 2014 or latest) A. Employment rate B. Unemployment rate Percentage of the working-age population (aged 15-64) Percentage of total labour force % % 80 12 10 60 8 40 6 4 20 2 0 0 Poland OECD Germany Poland OECD Germany C. Incidence of long-term unemployment D. Youth unemployment rate Percentage of total unemployment Percentage of young labour force (aged 15-24) % % 60 30 50 25 40 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 0 0 Poland OECD (a) Euro area Poland OECD Germany a) OECD is the weighted average of 33 OECD countries excluding Chile. Source: OECD calculations based on quarterly national Labour Force Surveys and OECD Short-Term Labour Market Statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00046-en. Employment remains low in Poland, although above the OECD average. From its peak of gradually increasing 10.6% in Q1 2013, unemployment has slowly declined to 9.6% in Q2 2014. Poland’s employment rate at 61% (Q2 2014) remains well below the OECD average but, in However, youth unemployment in Poland contrast to many other countries, it has remains very high. -
Comparative Analysis of Economic Transformation in Poland and Selected Central European Countries
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Comparative analysis of economic transformation in Poland and selected central European countries Kowalski, Tadeusz Poznan University of Economics May 2009 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16610/ MPRA Paper No. 16610, posted 09 Oct 2011 17:51 UTC Poznań-Atlanta Working Papers in Management, Finance and Economics No. 1 (8) Comparative Analysis of Economic Transformation in Poland and Selected Central European Countries by Tadeusz KOWALSKI May 009 MBA Pozna-Atlanta Working Papers No. 1 (8)/ 009 Editorial Committee: Tadeusz Kowalski, Steve Letza Henryk Mruk Anna Matysek-Jdrych, Secretary of the ditorial Committee Editing and layout: Anna Matysek-Jdrych Cover design: H&S * Copyright by MBA Poznan-Atlanta Program Pu lisher: MBA Pozna-Atlanta .niwersytet 0konomiczny w Poznaniu al. Niepodleg2o3ci 10 41-875 Pozna tel. 41 857 88 48 fa: 41 854 97 15 mba;ue.poznan.pl www.ue.poznan.pl/aemba ISSN: 1895-5779 Printing: Zak2ad Graficzny .niwersytetu 0konomicznego w Poznaniu MBA Pozna-Atlanta Working Papers No. 1 (8)/ 009 Tadeus$ %OWALSKI COMPARATI)E ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN POLAND AND - SELECTED CENTRAL E,ROPEAN COUNTRIES A stract The aim of this study is an empirical evaluation and comparison of Poland’s economic transformation in 1989-2008 against the background of the re- sults achieved in the same period by Hungary, the Czech .epublic, the Slo- vak .epublic, Lithuania, and the /kraine. 1 have focused on the most dis- tinctive features of economic transformation. The background for the empir- ical analyses constituted the macroeconomic stabilization frameworks of the economies, the standard growth mechanisms and the conditions of the economies’ competitiveness. -
1 November 2019 Ten Lessons from Thirty Years of Postcommunist Economic Transformation Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, Atlantic
November 2019 Ten Lessons from Thirty Years of Postcommunist Economic Transformation Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, Washington, DC Email: [email protected] Abstract The dominant idea in the early postcommunist economic transition was that an early and comprehensive radical economic reform program was needed. This program was accompanied with a clear program of political economy of reform, which included a clear understanding that the old system was finished, a political breakthrough, new political leaders, new economic policymakers, the swift elaboration of a reform program, a functioning parliament, sufficient international financial support, fast implementation, public understanding, and the overruling of any need for consensus. In hindsight, all these factors worked when they were present. Critics warned of too sharp output fall, which did not come to pass, lagging institutional development, and neglect of social reforms. The biggest problem has become the absence of real property rights in the postcommunist countries not belonging to the European Union because of captured judicial systems. Keywords: Political economy, Eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, economic transition, economic institutions, property rights 1 Introduction Thirty years of postcommunist transformation allows us to draw broad lessons. In 1989, the old communist order broke down in Eastern Europe, and at the end of 1991 the Soviet Union broke up. This was a truly liberal revolution akin to 1848. This was a time of optimism and liberalism. The two leading slogans in Eastern Europe were “We want a normal society” and “We want to return to Europe.” These slogans were not specified, but together they meant a liberal democracy with a free market economy based on private ownership of the means of production and the rule of law. -
Polish Labor Market
Marcin Karlik “Polish labor market - a summary of 25 years of socio-economic reforms on the road from centrally Journal planned economy to the fi rst decade of the European Union membership (1989-2015)”, of International Journal of International Studies, Vol. 8, No 3, 2015, pp. 224-233. DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2015/8-3/18 Studies c Papers c Polish labor market - a summary of 25 years of socio-economic © Foundation fi of International reforms on the road from centrally planned economy to the fi rst Studies, 2015 © CSR, 2015 decade of the European Union membership (1989-2015) Scienti Marcin Karlik University of Occupational Safety Management in Katowice Poland [email protected] Abstract. Th e article tackles the issue of changes that have taken place in the Polish labor Received: June, 2015 market in the period 1988-2015. It also shows political conditions and Polish mac- 1st Revision: roeconomic situation at the beginning of system transformation in 1988 and 1989. September, 2015 Th e author also presented the Polish labor market in the years 1989 - 2015, the source Accepted: December, 2015 of the crisis on the labor market and its impact on the socio-economic situation of Poland. DOI: Keywords: labour market, transformation, Poland 10.14254/2071- 8330.2015/8-3/18 JEL classifi cation: J40, P23 INTRODUCTION SITUATION OF POLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EARLY POLITICAL AND MARKET REFORMS IN 1989 In the early 1939 Poland entered into an alliance with France and Great Britain. In September 1939 Poland was invaded by Germany (Th ird Reich) and the Soviet Union (USSR). -
Poland Unemployment Benefit
Poland Unemployment benefit: haunted by a lack of legitimacy Stéphane Portet *, Karolina Sztandar-Sztanderska ** For many years, Poland held the European record for the highest level of unemployment. However, even in the darkest years, there was never any genuine political conflict over the issue of unemployment. The trade unions put up with - and some even accepted - the liberal solutions that were presented as miracle cures, while politicians generally remained silent and ministers drew up plans that were not backed up by genuine resources. Unemployment seemed to be the price to be paid for transformation, and efforts were needed to limit the devastating impact on family incomes. The Polish benefit system is thoroughly imbued with this welfare rationale, although it remains fundamentally an insurance-based system. Nowadays activation policies are a dominant feature, but as there is invariably a mix of approaches, the provision of financial windfalls still frequently takes precedence over efforts to improve employability. In fact, the Polish benefit system suffers from the fact that support for the jobless is not considered legitimate unless their situation is due to age or disability. It is difficult to imagine a coherent system of support for the unemployed in a society where work is so central in terms of the time devoted to it, the proportion of income it generates and its social value. Hence the politicians, unable to gain legitimacy for welfare assistance and with responsibility for managing the jobs shortage, have attempted to disguise financial assistance by introducing controls and an obligation for the unemployed to undertake training or to work – thus legitimising what is not considered legitimate. -
Shock Therapy in Poland: Perspectives of Five Years
Shock Therapy in Poland: Perspectives of Five Years JEFFREY SACHS THE TANNER LECTURES ON HUMAN VALUES Delivered at University of Utah April 6 and 7, 1994 JEFFREY SACHS is Galen L. Stone Professor of Interna- tional Trade at Harvard University, Faculty Fellow at the Harvard Institute for International Development, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was educated at Harvard University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1980. Sachs serves as an economic advisor to several governments in Latin America, Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Asia, and has also been a consultant to the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, and the United Nations Development Program. He is a member of the Harvard Society of Fellows and the Fellows of the World Econometric Society. His numerous pub- lications include Poland’s Jump to the Market Economy (1993), Macroeconomics in a Global Economy, coauthored with Felipe Larrain (1992), Peru’s Path to Recovery, co- authored with Carlos Paredes (1991), Global Linkages: Macroeconomic Interdependence and Cooperation in the World Economy, coauthored with Warwick McKibbin (1991), and Economics of Worldwide Stagflation, coau- thored with Michael Bruno (1985). The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe in 1989 and in the Soviet Union in 1991 are watershed events in world history. Naturally, the real import of these monumental events has been especially hard to judge in their immediate aftermath. Each suc- ceeding year, we gain important new perspectives on their mean- ing. This is certainly true in the economic realm, where debates about the transition from communism to market economy have been especially lively and contentious. -
Charting a New Path for Poland Or Turning Its Back on More Than a Quarter Century of Progress? Archives of Business Research, 5(2), 20-30
Archives of Business Research – Vol.5, No.2 Publication Date: February. 25, 2017 DOI: 10.14738/abr.52.2699. Hunter, R. J. (2017). Charting a New Path for Poland or Turning Its Back On More Than a Quarter Century of Progress? Archives of Business Research, 5(2), 20-30 Charting a New Path for Poland or Turning Its Back On More Than a Quarter Century of Progress? Richard J. Hunter, Jr. Professor of Legal Studies Seton Hall University ABSTRACT The paper analyzes the Morawiecki Plan for the Polish economy in light of its emphasis on encouraging domestic, rather than foreign, development in Poland. It discusses the critique of the current government relating to foreign ownership of assets in Poland and what the government intends to do about reversing this trend from both historical and practical perspectives. The paper includes both positive and negative assessments of these proposed changes in policy and emphasis. KEYWORDS: Balcerowicz Plan; Foreign Direct Investment; Incentives; Morawiecki Plan INTRODUCTION From the perspective of nearly twenty-eight years, it is now possible to state with certainty that despite a “propaganda of success” trumpeted by adherents to the former system of central planning (also called the command-rationing method or CRM), the economy of Poland had literally imploded by 1988-1989 because of a combination of four interrelated factors, which Hunter and Ryan (2006) have termed the “Grand Failures” of the communist system as it existed in Poland. These factors included: • Failure to create economic value or to improve -
Chapter 7 Temporary Employment, Unemployment and Employment Protection Legislation in Poland
Chapter 7 Temporary employment, unemployment and employment protection legislation in Poland Piotr Lewandowski and Iga Magda 1. Introduction Temporary employment has risen substantially in Poland since the early 2000s, while the share of workers with open-ended contracts has declined. Between 2002 and 2014, net employment in Poland increased by 2.07 million workers. This growth was spurred by the country’s strong macroeconomic performance and the rising educational attainment of the Polish workforce. However, almost the entire employment increase can be attributed to gains in temporary employment, which grew by 1.97 million workers. Employment under permanent contracts fluctuated at around 12.1 million during that period. The growth in temporary employment in Poland — both in absolute terms and as a share of total employment — started during the recession of the early 2000s, which was characterised by unemployment rates of over 20 per cent,1 and continued after macroeconomic conditions improved around 2004. The incidence of temporary contracts continued to rise up to 2007 and then stabilised at around 20-22 per cent of total employment (27-28 per cent of dependent employment) in 2008-2013. In 2014, Poland was the country with the highest share of temporary workers in the EU (22.0 per cent of total employment, 28.3 per cent of dependent employment). In parallel, the unemployment rate in Poland declined substantially in the 2000s, from 20.2 per cent in 2002 to 7.2 per cent in 2008. It rose again during the Great Recession, but it peaked at about half the level it had reached a decade earlier. -
Enterprise Reforms in Chinese and Polish State-Owned Industries
1 ?C3 o --JL'/ 1cq 1l Public Disclosure Authorized ResearchPaper Series Number CH 8 Comments welcome July 1991 Public Disclosure Authorized Enterprise Reforms in Chinese and Polish State-Owned Industries Qi rao Fan and Mark E. Schaffer Suntory-Toyota International Center Center for Economics Performance for Economics and Related Disciplines London School of Economics Public Disclosure Authorized Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE This paper represents the individualviews of the authors and not those of the sponsoring agencies or institutionsor their affiliated agencies. Commentsand suggestionsare welcomeby the authors. Public Disclosure Authorized Abstract The paper compares three separate state-owned industrial enterprise reforms: China 1978-90, Poland 1982-89, and the "Balcerowicz Plan" reforms in Poland that began in 1989. The authors argue that the first two "socialist" reforms were very similar, both in the measures enacted and in the results achieved. The third reform already surpasses the first Polish reform in its achievements, despite the fact that the formal set of "Balcerowicz Plan" reform measures were inherited largely unchanged from the preceding socialist reform. The authors contend that a critical ingredient in the success of the Polish reform in 1989-90 was the credibility of the new regime; conversely, the weakening of the credibility of the Chinese regime in 1989-90 further undermined its reforms. This is the revised version of a paper preparedfor the conference on Management and Economic in China Today: Simiarities with Eastern Europe?,Maastricht, the Netherlands,15-16 November 1990. We are extremelygrateful to Saul Estrin, Stanislaw Gomulka, Athar Hussain, Stephen Howes, Brigitte Granville, and an anonymous refereefor many helpful comments and discussions.