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Thailand: Adjusting to Success Current Policy Issues

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Thailand: Adjusting to Success Current Policy Issues OCCASIONAL PAPER 85 Thailand: Adjusting to Success Current Policy Issues David Robinson, Yangho Byeon, and Ranjit Teja with Wanda Tseng INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Washington DC August 1991 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution © 1991 International Monetary Fund Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Robinson, David, 1958- Thailand : adjusting to success : current policy issues / by David Robinson, Yangho Byeon, and Ranjit Teja with Wanda Tseng. p. cm. — (Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, ISSN 0251-6365 ; 85) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 1-55775-221-4 1. Thailand—Economic policy. 2. Fiscal policy—Thailand. 3. Finance—Thailand. 4. Thailand—Commercial policy. I. Byeon, Yangho, 1954- . II. Teja, Ranjit, 1958- . III. Title. IV. Series: Oc- casional paper (International Monetary Fund) ; no. 85. HC445.R63 1991 338.9593—dc20 91-27934 CIP Price: US$10.00 (US$7.50 to full-time faculty members and students at universities and colleges) Please send orders to: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A. Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Contents Page Preface vii II. Introduction 1 II. Overview of Economic Developments Since 1950 4 A Market-Based Industrial Strategy, 1950-72 4 External Shocks and Domestic Adjustment, 1973-85 7 The Boom Years, 1986-90 10 Policy Challenges for the 1990s 11 Box 1: A Profile of Thailand 2 Box 2: A Historical Retrospective 5 Box 3: Poverty and Income Distribution 6 Box 4: Environmental Issues 12 III. Fiscal Adjustment in the 1980s and Beyond 14 Overview of Adjustment Effort 14 Medium-Term Issues in Public Sector 16 Infrastructural Bottlenecks Tax Reform Size of Fiscal Surplus Box 5: Infrastructural Issues 18 IV. Financial Reform 20 The Financial System 20 Financial Institutions Financial Markets Conduct of Monetary Policy 22 Financial Reform 24 Restructuring Commercial Banks and Finance and Securities Companies Further Deregulation Strengthening Prudential Supervision Developing Financial Instruments and Markets Improving Payments and Information Management System Box 6: The 1983 Financial Crisis 22 V. Trade Policies 27 Structure of Nominal Tariffs and Effective Protection in the 1980s 27 Trade Liberalization in 1990 and Beyond 29 iii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution CONTENTS Page VI. The Economy in a Regional Perspective 30 Common Policy Issues in the Core Region 30 Regional Interdependence 34 Regional Cooperation 35 Appendices I. Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy 39 II. Statistical Appendix 43 Bibliography 48 Tables Section I. 1. Social Indicators 2 2. Summary Data, 1985-90 3 II. 3. Poverty and Income Distribution, 1975-88 6 III. 4. Accounts of the Central Government, 1980/81-1989/90 15 5. Estimation of Fiscal Stance and Impulse, 1980/81-1989/90 17 6. Regional Comparison of Revenue Performance and 19 Tax Rates, 1989 IV. 7. Financial Institutions 21 8. Size of Primary Markets 23 V. 9. Tariff Rates and Effective Protection 28 10. Tariff Structure 28 11. Structure of Effective Protection 28 12. Manufacturing Industry Classified by Sales Orientation and 29 Effective Protection Rate (ERP), 1985 VI. 13. Regional Economic Indicators, 1989 31 14. Regional Trade of Core Developing Countries, 1980-90 34 15. Foreign Direct Investment in Core Region, 1985-89 37 16. East Asian Foreign Direct Investment in Core Region, 1989 37 Appendix I. 17. Estimations Using the Edwards-Khan Approach 40 18. Estimates of the Openness Coefficient 41 19. Estimations Using the Haque-Montiel Approach 42 II. 20. Domestic Expenditure and Product 43 21. Investment and Savings 44 22. Monetary Survey 44 23. Accounts of the Bank of Thailand 45 24. Balance of Payments Developments 46 25. External Debt and Debt Service 47 Charts Section II. 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 1953-90 4 2. Investment and Savings, 1950-90 7 iv ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Contents Page 3. External Developments, 1953-90 8 4. Indicators of Structural Change, 1950-90 9 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates, 1978-90 10 III. 6. Central Government Revenue and Expenditure, 1980/81-1990/91 16 VI. 7. Macroeconomic Trends in Core Region, 1985-90 32 8. Composition of Trade, 1986-89 33 9. Pattern of Trade in Core Region, 1985-90 36 The following symbols have been used throughout this paper: ... to indicate that data are not available; — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist; - between years or months (e.g., 1990-91 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; / between years (e.g., 1990/91) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year. "Billion" means a thousand million. Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding. The term "country," as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis. V ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Preface The 1991 Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Bangkok provide a good occasion for a review of Thailand's recent economic development and prospects. This paper is based largely on documentation prepared in connection with the 1991 Article IV consultation with Thailand. The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance and warm hospitality extended to them by the Thai authorities, particularly the staff of the Bank of Thailand. They also wish to express their gratitude to P.R. Narvekar, who originally suggested the idea of an Occasional Paper, and to Linda M. Koenig, who directed the initial work; and to record their appreciation to Melanie Dieckman, Natalie Hairfield, and Noy Siackhachanh for research assistance, to Rosanne Heller of the Asian Department and to Elin Knotter of the External Relations Department for editorial comments and advice, and to Ollie Goodger, Florence Lee, and Molly Singh for secretarial support. While the paper has benefited from comments and suggestions both from the Thai authorities and from colleagues in the Fund and the World Bank, any opinions expressed are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Thai authorities, Executive Directors of the IMF, or other IMF staff members. The authors bear sole responsibility for any factual errors. VII vii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution viii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution I Introduction hailand's economic performance over the past and, to support this, a strengthening of domestic savings Tseveral decades is an excellent example of success- is required. The deregulation of domestic markets is ful development, combining adjustment with growth. seen as essential to improve economic efficiency and The achievements of the 1980s continue this rec- enhance the potential for growth, particularly in the ord. Early in the decade, like many other developing areas of tax reform, liberalization of the financial countries, Thailand was hit hard by the global recession system, and tariff reduction. At the same time, poli- and the downturn in commodity prices. However, a cymakers have increasingly stressed the need to improve prompt and pragmatic policy response restored macro- the quality of growth, which has been adversely affected economic balance and poised the economy to take full by both environmental problems and a deterioration in advantage of the improved international environment income distribution. This paper addresses some of these by 1986. Since then, spurred by rapid increases in current policy issues. investment and exports, Thailand has experienced a The next section provides an overview of Thailand's sustained economic boom that is spectacular even by postwar economic development, outlining the reasons the standards of a region renowned for its economic for its economic success and the main policy issues dynamism. While Thailand's recent success can be facing the authorities. The paper then focuses on the attributed to many factors, three in particular predomi- role of fiscal policy, reviewing the fiscal adjustment nate: a commitment to an outward-oriented, market- of the 1980s and considering the implications of based economic system; a development strategy cen- infrastructural investment and tax reform for fiscal tered on the private sector; and a tradition of cautious policy in the 1990s. Next it discusses plans for liberal- financial policies. ization of the financial sector designed to boost domestic The success of Thailand's recent economic perfor- savings to support future growth, to enhance its ability mance has, however, led to increasing strains on the to compete in international markets, and ultimately to economy, manifested in the emergence of infrastruc- develop Thailand as a regional financial center. The tural bottlenecks, a sharp increase in the current account paper then examines the need for tariff reform to reduce deficit, and a pickup in inflation. The challenge facing the level and dispersion of effective protection and policymakers now is how best to sustain the momentum improve the efficiency of investment. The final section of the economy while keeping demand pressures in sets Thailand's economic development in a regional check. This in turn will require measures to reduce a context, assessing both the commonality of experience variety of structural impediments to growth. In particu- in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, and the role that lar, the need for substantial infrastructural investment the region has played in these three countries' recent in both physical and human capital is widely recognized, economic success. 1 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution I INTRODUCTION Box I.
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