8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS | THURSDAY 21 FEBRUARY 2019 >

5.1 million followers. Mostly tweeting political party or politician he’s follow - > CHINESE WHISPERS achievements of the government, the ing right now. On Twitter since July Twitter and elections minister for railways and coal has sent 2009, he has sent out just 2,051 tweets out 20,000 tweets since he joined in in close to 10 years. With the Lok Sabha polls round the corner, this might be a good April 2013. He himself is following 497 is third with 12.6 million Picture imperfect including Amitabh Bachchan, Preity followers. The BJP president, who time to look at the top Twitter influencers among our politicians Zinta and Ajay Devgn; business cham - joined Twitter in May 2013, is following A

bers and a couple of industrialists, just 282, most of them leaders from his H N I S

to Twitter in these fraught times. ers from the party. As for Mamata, apart from Prime Minister Narendra party and related organisations apart Y Let’s check out 10 possible influ - she’s been around for almost five years Modi, Finance Minister from an actor or two. A N I B encers in the Twitter gallery as the on the platform and has tweeted 5,134 and other party leaders. Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Y B countdown to 2019 elections has begun. times. While her followers are at 3.15 Rahul Gandhi is on number five Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal has N O I

The three ladies—Bahujan Samaj million, she’s not much of a follower with 8.6 million followers. A regular an impressive 14.5 million follower T A R

Party Chief Mayawati, newly-inducted herself. She’s kept it short at 31, choos - voice on social media, he joined in base. Since November 2011, when he T S U

Congress General Secretary Priyanka ing to have actors and singers besides April 2015 and has sent out 4,140 got into Twitter, he has sent out 27,300 L L Gandhi Vadra and West Bengal Chief the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and tweets. The president fol - messages. He’s following 209, including I Minister Mamata Banerjee — are at the politicians including Rahul Gandhi, lows only 206 including Priyanka, leaders cutting across parties. PM Modi, bottom of this list with 99,400, 215,000 Piyush Goyal, Arun Jaitley and Arvind Akhilesh Yadav, Kanimozhi, Mamata Nitin Gadkari, Chandrababu Naidu, Not surprisingly, Madhya Pradesh Chief NOT FOR PROFIT and 315,000 Twitter followers, respec - Kejriwal on the list. She’s also follow - Banerjee and Sharad Yadav. The list Omar Abdullah, , Sitaram Minister Kamal Nath is a critic of the NIVEDITA MOOKERJI tively. Going by the numbers, they have ing the Kolkata Police. also has a mix of business people Yechuri, Mamata Banerjee are among predecessor government, led by Shivraj to go aggressive to improve their social Nitin Gadkari is in the seventh place (Ratan Tata, Anand Mahindra, the names. The list does not ignore the Singh Chouhan of the Bharatiya Janata media standing. as per the number of followers. The Bhavish Aggarwal), celebrities (Sachin lieutenant governor of Delhi despite the Party (BJP). On Tuesday when he met ounded some 13 years ago, the Mayawati joined Twitter only in road transport and highways minister Tendulkar, Lata Mangeshkar) and top faceoffs. prospective investors and businessmen San Francisco-based social October 2018 and has sent out only 44 has been a slow adopter of social media. tech names (Satya Nadella, Sundar Topping the list is, of course, the PM, in Bhopal, he criticised the previous F media platform Twitter will messages. While she has already got Not too long ago, he was following only Pichai, Tim Cook)… There’s no promi - with 45.7 million followers. A Twitterati government's single-window play more than an important role in 99,400 followers, she’s not following three; now the number has risen to 132. nent BJP name here. since January 2009, he’s sent 22,400 clearance system, calling it a failure. the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in anybody other than Twitter Support. But he’s yet to embrace anything global leader Akhilesh messages, less than Kejriwal’s count. Of But in what is seen as a major India, if the current political narrative Priyanka is the latest kid on the block. on Twitter. He’s following most things Yadav is a notch higher with 9.07 mil - this list, Modi is following the maxi - embarrassment for his government, is to be believed. That the She joined Twitter earlier this month, BJP apart from the PMO and ministers. lion followers at number four. The mum number of people and organisa - just before the meeting started, Parliamentary Standing Committee coinciding with her entry into politics, Having joined in December 2009, he’s number of people he follows, at just tions at 2,124, including celebrities, booklets relating to different industries summoned the Twitter global chief to and she hasn’t sent out any tweets so sent out 3,070 tweets — most of them 16, doesn’t compare with his popular - industrialists, startups and both Indian and policies were distributed among explain his stand on safeguarding cit - far. She’s managed a follower base of in the last few months. He’s being fol - ity. And they are mostly actors/celebri - and international media. the guests. Pictures of Chouhan and izens’ rights on social media platforms 7,215 but is following only seven — lowed by 4.41 million. ties (like Vidya Balan, Amitabh Will this effort translate into votes? Deen Dayal Upadhyaya, a Jana Sangh shows the seriousness being attached brother Rahul Gandhi and some oth - Piyush Goyal is at number six with Bachchan, A R Rahman). There’s no There’s time still to work on the numbers. leader of yesteryear, adorned the booklets, which were printed during the previous regime.

No time to waste Congress Sebi gives mutual funds a reality check President Rahul Gandhi ( pictured ) Guidelines on returns, classification and labelling will scale back ‘outperformance’ claims and improve transparency has been meeting people with gusto JASH KRIPLANI Subramaniam, group president and allocation to stocks that align with the these days. On head (equity), at UTI MF. scheme’s mandate. Tuesday, he met a he mutual fund industry has had Another big move by the regulator Some players within the MF industry small group of a good run for quite some time. has been the re-classification of schemes. see this as an opportunity for low-cost businessmen in T Fund collections, especially Under these guidelines, large-cap funds products such as exchange-traded funds New Delhi under through systematic investment plans, can allocate 80 per cent of their stocks (ETFs) and index funds. These funds the apni baat Rahul ke saath have been to the tune of ~8,064 crore a in large-cap companies or the top 100 reflect the returns of an underlying index umbrella. During the meeting, a small- month — an all-time high. companies. Mid-cap funds can have 65 of companies and are available at lower time trader from Indore suggested his Amid this euphoria, however, the per cent in mid-cap stocks, and small- fees for investors. party consider paying special attention industry has also had to ride through the cap funds can have 65 per cent in small- The fees charged by ETFs can be as to the handloom industry in Madhya crisis that hit mid-and small-cap funds, cap stocks. The result of this classifica - low as 0.1 per cent against fees of 1.5-2.25 Pradesh. Being the second-largest defaults by Infrastructure Leasing & tion could be that fund managers could per cent charged by large-cap schemes, industrial sector in the state, it has the Financial Services and other companies, find it harder to outperform benchmarks say analysts tracking the MF industry. potential to generate employment in and of course, implement several guide - because they won’t be able to dabble too “While alpha [outperformance] will per - large numbers. After listening to him lines of the Securities and Exchange much in riskier stocks. THE ROAD TO TRANSPARENCY sist for mid- and small-cap categories, patiently, Gandhi whisked out his Board of India (Sebi). The new regulations require large- EARLIER NOW index funds and ETFs will have a larger mobile phone and called Chief Minister Sebi’s changes, which were proposed cap schemes to invest at least 80 per cent | Scheme returns were compared | Scheme returns need to be compared role to play in the large-cap space,” Kamal Nath. He organised their in October 2017 and notified last year, of their funds in the top-100 companies. against just price gains of a against price and dividend gains under Edelweiss MF’s Gupta says. meeting without delay. will have a long-term impact on equity We have recently seen only a few stocks benchmark Total Return Index method Retail investors haven’t started funds’ performance. The new norms within this universe outperforming,” boarding the ETF bandwagon aggres - have introduced more transparency and Anand Vardarajan, head of business and | Schemes, whether a large- mid- | Reclassification requires schemes sively, as only seven per cent of ETF will also scale back claims of product strategy at Tata MF or small-cap mandate, had leeway to be in line with their assets are owned by individual investors. Gadkari, the film outperformance by many said. Last year, 67 of the Nifty- But some MFs are already exploring It isn't just the poster of a movie on the schemes. This is on account 100 stocks underperformed to follow multiple investment mandate, precluding riskier opportunities around ETFs and the strategies investments life and times of Prime Minister of the introduction of the the index returns. index funds. In December, Tata MF that has caught the total return index (TRI) last Most agree, however, that launched its Nifty ETF. Edelweiss is in | Balanced schemes with, say, 70 or | Balanced schemes have three imagination of social media. For the last February. TRI captures both this is a good move from a the process of launching a debt ETF, 50% equity were bunched together categories to make them 'true-to-label' week or so, the trailer of a biopic on the dividend gains and cap - hygiene perspective. which would comprise of government- Union minister Nitin Gadkari is one of ital appreciation delivered “Though re-classification owned companies. Even though debt the more watched clips on YouTube. The by the benchmark index. puts constraints for most cat - markets have faced several challenges trailer of Gadkari (the film) has garnered The price return index used egories, it is positive from the comparison was difficult as there was a categories – the conservative hybrid (10- recently, an ETF comprising of govern - 144,000 views after it was posted on earlier only captured the investors’ standpoint possibility of schemes with different 25 per cent in equities), balanced hybrid ment-backed debt papers might give social media on February 12. "Unfolding capital appreciation, thereby because, earlier, there were characteristics getting bracketed in the (40-60 per cent in equities and aggres - some comfort to retail investors. the real life story of union minister Nitin making fund managers look exception - some instances of multiple market-cap same category. Now, they can easily seg - sive hybrid (65-80 per cent in equities). Anticipating this churn from large- Jairam Gadkari's courage, wisdom and ally good even when companies paid oriented strategies being run in the same regate various schemes when weighing Earlier, schemes with 70 per cent equity cap to ETFs, Sebi recently laid down untold truth. A journey of a man from hefty dividends. scheme,” Subramaniam added. their options.” as well as 50 per cent equity were all norms prescribing a minimum num - RSS swayamsevak to a politician," the “The TRI methodology is more in- “Scheme re-classification has been The regulatory move to make bunched together, making it almost ber of constituents in the underlying preface to the movie trailer states. It also line with global norms. In the earlier quite an important step because it helps schemes “true-to-label” is meant to impossible for investors to differentiate index and weight limits on the con - claims that the film is 's first method, scheme outperformance could investors make fair comparisons make it easier for an investor to narrow between them. stituent stocks. Whether ETF penetra - crowd-funded feature-length film. get overstated as dividend gains were not between the various schemes,” said his preferences. Consequently, this Such changes were extended across tion remains at these levels or deep - Nagpur is not just the headquarters of included in the benchmarks. Now, Radhika Gupta, chief executive officer exercise has been carried out across all categories on the debt side as well. To ens, such changes by the market the RSS, it is also Gadkari's hometown. investors can take a more informed of Edelweiss MF. kinds of funds. That is, balanced ensure investors are not misled, schemes watchdog are likely to make MFs safer investment decision,” said Vetri Added Vardarajan: “Earlier product schemes have been classified into three are required to make a certain minimum in the long run.

INSIGHT > LETTERS

within the capital markets risk Risk management in capital markets function’s purview Problem of plenty n Development of scenarios for policies, controls and processes. stress testing In , the Congress and the Risks involve market manipulation, money The effectiveness of the three-lines- n Model calibration and measurement Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have of-defence model depends on the clarity of model performance decided to contest together for the Lok laundering and fraudulent reporting of roles, responsibilities and account - n Periodic validation of the model Sabha polls of 2019. Before they could ability of all stakeholders, a clear segre - in alignment with firm’s model finalise the exact distribution of the 48 players are best positioned to succeed. gation of duties to ensure independence validation policies seats in the state, smaller like-minded All participants are being forced to in risk management, and review and The aggregation of risk metrics into parties have shown interest in joining adapt their business models as a result. challenge built into the governance reports and KRIs is vital for manage - the “secular” bandwagon. They are the The changes in the capital markets framework across all levels. ment’s ability to effectively monitor and Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj ecosystem also affect the risk across the The capital markets risk function mitigate all material risk types. The fre - Party, the Swabhimani Shetkari value chain for market participants and must outline its approach to risk man - quency of risk management report gen - Sanghtana, the Shiv Sangram Sena, the consequently the development of agement and set limits to quantify the eration and distribution is set to enable Maharashtra Navnirman Sena and the appropriate processes to mitigate these amount of risk the firm is willing to periodic measurement and to keep pace Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh party. The settlement of the Kashmir dispute. It is new risks will become critical. As a take, through a risk appetite statement. with the speed at which risks can last one has asked for 12 seats. If the uncomfortable, but inescapable that result, increased scrutiny will be placed Capital markets risk management pro - change. The risk measurement reports demands of all these parties are to be what most Kashmiris call “repression on risk management frameworks as cedures and processes translate poli - play a crucial role in contributing to met, how many seats will be left for the for the continued occupation and sub - well as recovery and resolution plans. cies into specific and tangible steps, sound risk management and effective two main contenders to fight from? jugation” incubates militancy in the Best practice elements of according to which day to management decision making. Arun Malankar Mumbai Valley. Nobody can legitimise or con - VIKRAM LIMAYE a capital markets risk man - day activities can be per - Risk reporting is a key capability done senseless violence in the name of agement architecture can Translating risk formed. The procedures within organisations that comprises Don’t rule out talks jihad or religious war. At the same time, be broken broadly into two policies and also need to ensure that processes including signing off on the struggle for the right to self-deter - n the Indian financial services land - buckets: a) risk governance, procedures into the firm has an effective results (such as daily VaR results) to It is unfortunate, yet understandable, mination and more autonomy cannot scape, risk management has always policies and procedures; action requires system of controls, rea - maintain accuracy of risk manage - that Prime Minister Narendra Modi ( pic - be put down by military might. I been seen as a focus area for bank - and b) risk modelling, mea - capital market sonably designed to iden - ment and confirm that results are tured ) has come to the conclusion that Patriotism should not stop us from ing and capital markets players. Our surement, and reporting. firms to effectively tify and mitigate risks. accurate for reporting and disclosure “time for talks has passed”. The speaking against the disquieting ways regulators have set appropriate guide - Risk governance refers to model all risk Translating risk policies purposes; producing results that accu - Pulwama attack might have led to this used by the security forces to eliminate lines and policies that achieve the dual mechanisms that firms use types, monitor and and procedures into action rately convey all risk data at an aggre - conclusion. However, it is when things militants from the Valley. We should objectives of market development to assess and implement report them to requires capital market gate level (the reports should ideally get worse, talks need to be held to not let our moral compass be constrict - together with prudent risk management decisions related to market, ensure efficient firms to effectively model include a fine balance between risk redeem the situation. The decision of ed by nationalism and religion. and consumer protection. While risk liquidity, credit and opera - decision making all risk types (credit, mar - data, analysis of risk, and qualitative not to resume talks will only prolong the G David Milton Maruthancode management and its importance in tional risks inherent in cap - ket, liquidity, operational explanations); producing reports for hostilities and tension. Pakistan Prime lending is well understood and dis - ital markets. Capital market etc.), regular monitoring of regulatory purposes — usually entails Minister Imran Khan’s readiness for Letters can be mailed, faxed or e-mailed to: cussed in public circles (this may be firms typically organise and govern risks and reporting to ensure efficient multiple checks and reviews by senior “talks on terror” and guaranteed action The Editor, Business Standard attributed to the current high levels of their risk management practices using decision making across the organisation. risk managers to ensure that all data on actionable evidence is hard to believe. Nehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi 110 002 NPAs), risk management in capital mar - a three-lines-of-defence model. This The foundational elements of risk is accurate and exhaustive to meet reg - There is no escape for India and Fax: (011) 23720201 · E-mail: [email protected] kets is a less discussed topic. usually includes risk taking, risk over - modelling comprise key elements ulatory requirements. Pakistan from relying on “talks” as the All letters must have a postal address and telephone Capital markets, globally and in sight and risk assurance activities. including decomposing risk into dis - The next generation of risk manage - only way to edge towards an amicable number India, are at risk of many violations Broadly, the first line is composed of crete parts, balancing effectiveness and ment will include near real-time calcu - including market manipulation, money risk takers — business line heads who efficiency of the risk models and align - lations, aggregation and reporting of laundering and fraudulent reporting must own and track the risks they gen - ing methodology with regulatory risks across the entire capital markets > HAMBONE among others. Recent changes in global erate. The second line is typically an requirements and firm strategy. A value chain, and more granular cate - capital markets have forced participants independent body, usually the capital robust market risk modelling function gorisations of risks. For future capital across the ecosystem — buy-side and markets risk function, that sets limits would typically entail execution of the markets risk functions to be successful, sell-side participants, custodians, mar - for taking risks and ensures that all risks following processes: they would require sophisticated tools ket infrastructure and financial tech - are being appropriately managed across n Development of modelling methodol - to synthesise complex information and nology providers — to reassess their the organisation. The third line, usually ogy for calculating the Value-at-Risk generate insightful alerts and reports in strategies, business models and risk the internal audit function, verifies the (VaR) and Stressed Value-at-Risk (SVaR) real-time situations. frameworks. This results in movement efforts of the first two to ensure that n Development of pricing models and in revenue pools where risk resides and nothing is out of line from the defined sensitivities for all asset classes The author is MD & CEO, NSE OPINION 9 > STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM

Volume XXIII Number 136 ILLUSTRATION BY BINAY SINHA MUMBAI | THURSDAY, 21 FEBRUARY 2019

Interim relief worked at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the European Commission and the RBI’s payout will help the govt World Bank, found that the Bank (along with WHO and the Lancet) conveniently forget the “energy n its latest board meeting on Monday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ladder” which allowed the now-developed countries decided to transfer an interim dividend of ~28,000 crore to the govern - to graduate to their current 24/7 access to reliable and ment in the current fiscal year. Together with the ~40,000-crore final cheap fossil-fuelled electricity (mainly coal, and more surplus share for 2017-18 (India’s central bank follows the July-June recently, natural gas) while denying the very same I process of development to the now developing coun - cycle), which the Centre received in the first half, the dividend transferred by the RBI to the government in 2018-19 has gone up to ~68,000 crore. This is tries. Rupert Darwall, a former special adviser to the United Kingdom’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, substantially higher than the ~50,000 crore it got from the RBI in 2017-18. charges that during Dr Kim’s tenure, the “World Bank The higher amount would surely come as a big relief for the government for lost its way and sacrificed the interests of the poor to achieving its fiscal deficit target of 3.4 per cent in the current fiscal year at a green ideology”. time when there are concerns over lower than expected revenue collection The resignation of Dr Kim, for some, could not especially via the goods and services tax (GST) route as well as the increased have come at a more opportune time. The World demands for public sector bank recapitalisation. Bank and its counterparts such as the Asian Development Bank have taken a lead role in deny - It’s clear the government is depending on the RBI’s largesse. For instance, ing poorer countries the development strategy in the interim Budget, presented at the start of the month, the finance minister that the now-rich countries had taken so success - revised the dividend from the RBI, nationalised banks, and financial institu - fully since the Industrial Revolution. By the 1980s, tions from ~54,817 crore to ~74,140 crore for FY19. For the next fiscal year, the Europe, North America and Japan had already government is seeking ~69,000 crore as dividend from the central bank, cleaned up their cities of urban smog while ensur - which is about 83 per cent of the combined dividends of ~82,911 crore the ing clean, reliable and affordable energy which Centre has budgeted from the RBI, state-owned banks and financial institu - included high-efficiency, low-emission coal and The World Bank and its natural gas-fuelled power plants, and cleaner tions. The RBI, too, seems to be playing along, as is evident from the generous transport and cooking fuels. payout this year. The practice of interim dividend, in fact, started under The Bank’s enthusiastic adoption of the “sus - former RBI governor Urjit Patel when the central bank paid ~10,000 crore on tainable development” meme — that much-enam - this account last year. defunct energy policy oured slogan of special interest groups proclaim - The welcome sign is that the interim dividend decision by the new gov - ing “civil society” interests — has had an insidious ernor is based on a limited audit review and after applying the extant capital effect in development economics. There has not framework. It shows the government has stayed away from pushing the RBI Nomination of David Malpass by the Trump administration to been a single instance of a country successfully developing to middle income status without the to touch its reserves — an issue that had snowballed into a major crisis head the World Bank represents a chance for the lender to go use of fossil fuels as the workhorse of industriali - between the government and the central bank. The RBI’s argument that time sation and modern economic growth. Yet elastic was that the bulk of the excess reserves it accumulated each year as a result back to its original charter concepts of “sustainability” and the like remain of interest income as well as seigniorage, or the profits earned by issuing the the lead talking points among many pundits of currency, should be left with it as contingency funds to ensure financial sta - he shock resignation of World Bank Keynes, a key founding economist-architect of economic development. bility in the economy. But the government reckoned that the central bank President Dr Jim Yong Kim, announced in that order. Lord Keynes’ much-quoted prognosti - The previous chief economic advisor to the did not need to have about 27 per cent of its assets as capital and reserves. Tearly January, more than three years before cation, that practical men find themselves under Indian government Arvind Subramanian recently his term would have ended, and the nomination the influence of some “defunct economist”, could - warned that India, like other developing countries, This led to a friction between the two. of David Malpass, one of the institution’s sharpest n’t be better illustrated than in the World Bank’s cannot allow the narrative of “carbon imperialism” That question should hopefully end after the expert committee, head - critics in the current US administration, has been intellectual evolution. to come in the way of realistic planning. This ed by former governor Bimal Jalan, gives its report next month. The com - seen as yet another disruptive change to the global It did not take long for Dr Kim, an appointee would include adopting the best technology using mittee, which will review the extant economic capital framework, will order under President Trump’s watch. of President Obama in 2012, to impose a ban on cheap coal for power generation, increasing the suggest how the central bank should handle its reserves and whether it While disruptive change has become a regular the financing of coal-fired power stations (in 2013), use of cleaner fossil fuels such as natural gas, and can transfer its surplus to the government. It is also expected to look into affair under this most impetuous followed subsequently by a ban recognising the hidden costs of subsidising newer of US presidents, the changing of on investments in all new technologies such as wind and solar power. the adequate level of risk provisioning the RBI needs to maintain. That the guard at the World Bank is upstream oil and gas resource The Trump administration’s Treasury apart, any other related matter, including treatment of surplus reserves potentially of great consequence development projects. For this Guidance for the US position on multilateral banks created out of realised gains, will also come within the ambit of this com - to the world’s poor. That is, onslaught on fossil fuels, Dr Kim regarding energy projects and policies includes mittee. The government should take action on the recommendations assuming the Malpass nomina - seems to have been under the the objectives to “help countries access and use quickly to signal an end to the long debate. tion is not seriously challenged thrall of Keynes’ defunct fossil fuels cleanly and efficiently” and “support by the EU which jealously guards economists and political philoso - development of robust, efficient, competitive, and its say in the appointment of IMF phers who cast votes for the Bank integrated global markets for energy”. These are India on its own Managing Director as part of the to favour mitigating long run cli - good first steps. quid pro quo over the twin mate change over economic But the nomination of David Malpass could Foreign assistance on climate change isn’t forthcoming Bretton Woods institutions that growth to serve the immediate not have come sooner, and the sooner World Bank served the post-World War order. TILAK K DOSHI needs of the world’s poor. managers shake off their enslavement to defunct ven while claiming major advances on meeting climate commitments Malpass has been a strong There is no shortage of com - economists, the better. The hopes of the world’s with largely domestic endeavour and funding, India’s second biennial advocate for accountability at the mentary on the World Bank’s one billion poor — yet to achieve access to reliable, update report presented to the United Nations Framework Convention World Bank and comes with a “back to the basics” flight to defunct economics. Prof Deepak Lal, a affordable and clean energy taken for granted in on Climate Change (UNFCCC) seeks adequate financial and techno - focus on pro-growth projects for countries which former Oxford don and Research Administrator the developed countries — depend upon it. E include people in extreme poverty. He has also of the Bank remarked that Dr Kim incredulously logical support to meet the new challenges on this front. This plea, no doubt, is bound to fall flat due to the rich nations’ growing reluctance to contribute funds been a known critic of the World Bank’s loans to “over-ruled the cost-benefit estimates of coal- The writer is a Singapore-based consultant in the energy China and India, arguing that these countries have based power over solar and wind-based power sector, and is the author of “Singapore in a Post-Kyoto for this purpose. The important part of the report, therefore, is the declaration become rich enough to tap global capital markets generation produced by his own economic staff, World: Energy, Environment and the Economy" that, unlike most other countries, India is on track to fulfilling two of its three on reasonable terms. justifying this by reference to a wish to cut global published by the Institute of South-east Asian Studies main commitments made as part of the nationally determined contributions The post-1945 Bretton Wood’s arrangement, of emissions of greenhouse gases.” (Singapore, 2015). He was a 1984 Robert S McNamara (NDCs) to combat climate change. These involve reducing the greenhouse gas course, is very much associated with Maynard Mikko Paunio, a public health expert who has Research Fellow of the World Bank. (GHG) emissions intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 20-25 per cent by 2020 over 2005 levels, and raising the share of non-fossil fuels-based power in electricity production to 40 per cent. The third commitment — creating 2.5-3 billion tonnes of carbon sink through forestry — is set to be missed. Nevertheless, despite unabated increase in the GHG emissions, the carbon intensity of the The telecom crisis: Noises off Indian economy has dipped to 21 per cent, which is well within the targeted range. Similarly, the proportion of non-fossil electricity in power output has he prospect of possible jail time for Anil start BSNL was given in the 3G business. But clo - had submitted to Cabinet for the two entities. surged to 35.5 per cent, bringing the 40 per cent goal within striking distance. Ambani for defaulting on payment to a cred - sure is a dramatic step by public sector standards. “Consideration of any such proposal is not per - However, more resources would need to be mobilised to sustain and step Titor understandably dominated the business In 2009, plans for a small dilution in shareholding missible as it will be in contravention of all tenets up these efforts. Funding worth about $206 billion (at 2014-15 prices) is estimated headlines most of Wednesday. Less noticed is anoth - was scuttled by BSNL’s unions over fears of post- of policy, fair competition and level playing field,” er telecom crisis that has thrust itself upon, not the IPO retrenchment (this fear was not unfounded; the letter pointed out, and the government duly to be needed till 2030 for climate adaptation in areas such as agriculture, water private sector nor the courts but the taxpaying pub - over 2007-08 central government-owned compa - backed out (whether fiscal considerations played resources and ecosystems. An additional $834 billion is required for global warm - lic. Over the past week, MTNL and BSNL have each nies shed some 44,000 jobs). Yet, pay and pension a role too is unclear). ing mitigation measures. Against this, all that India has received till 2018 is an sent their owner, the Government of India, an SOS alone have done these former blue chips in. In At risk are over 200,000 jobs between both these indicative allocation of $87.87 million. Of this, the actual approvals amount to seeking a bailout — the second request in six years. both, employee costs account for over 90 per cent loss-making entities. With unofficial election cam - merely $59 million. Worse still, the indicative allocation for the 2018-22 period The demands, which festered through most of of income — at a time when technology is the sole paigning already in full swing, and the government has shrunk to just $40 million — a pittance compared to the massive requirement. 2018, are remarkable because competitive edge in the business. battling its own statistics institutions over record they reflect gross mismanage - So, just as union power has pre - high unemployment numbers, the last thing How much of it materialises is uncertain as the developed countries often renege ment at taxpayer’s expense — vented the closure of Air India, Narendra Modi needs at this time are TV images on their pledges. and they now require taxpayer which should have folded half a of telecom employees on dharna for losing their Therefore, the choice before India is clear. It will have to stand on its own in money to bail them out. MTNL’s decade ago, BSNL can be expect - jobs. So it’s a fair bet that the two sick giants will staving off the perils of global warming. The agriculture sector needs greater management has told the ed to enter the list of large white live to battle at least another few months for a deci - resilience against erratic weather to safeguard the livelihood of the bulk of the Department of Telecom (DoT) elephants on the GOI’s roster. sion from the next government. country’s population. According to the farm ministry, the output of major crops that it has borrowed ~20,000 Both telecom giants have A band-aid solution is at hand from Air India, may not show any significant dip in the shorter run but it might decline sharply crore to clear statutory dues and revival plans that centre on volun - which found no buyers when it was put on the auc - pay staff salaries, and it wants the tary retirement schemes and sale tion block last year. This year, there are reports by as much as 10-40 per cent over a longer period. The country’s capacity to government to underwrite this of assets (3G spectrum for MTNL, that the government proposes to issue sovereign cope with weather-induced natural disasters, too, would need to be shored up. money with a sovereign guaran - land banks for both). These are not guaranteed non-convertible debentures worth No cost would be too high for this purpose, given the huge and recurring damage tee and take responsibility for the SWOT novel; they have been considered ~29,000 crore to repay working capital loans. This the country is suffering due to events attributable to climate change. Official principal and interest. With loss - intermittently since at least 2008 is essentially borrowing more by any other name. KANIKA DATTA estimates put these losses at around $10 billion a year. Health costs and conse - es expanding to ~832.26 crore in without much success. And a And who will buy this debt? In 2012, a ~7,200- quential productivity losses are apart from this. A World Bank report released in Q3 of FY19, its net worth has been bailout is improbable, too, given crore NCD issue was subscribed by the Life June 2018 said the rising temperature and changing monsoon rainfall patterns fully eroded. Had any equivalent private sector the government’s fiscal constraints. Insurance Corporation and the Employees’ company faced the same predicament it would Even assuming the government does agree, Provident Fund Organisation. The first institution could shave off 2.8 per cent of India’s GDP, affecting the living standards of have been up for sale. there will be howls of protest from beleaguered has been the government’s bailout vehicle of choice nearly half of its popu lation by 2050. Under these circumstances, it may be To be fair, the government has also asked BSNL, private competitors. In 2013, with reverberations since the 1980s, and the second has recently advisable for India to lay greater emphasis on adaptation vis-à-vis other with accumulated losses of ~31,287 crore, to explore from the 2G spectrum scandal still being felt, the mobilised the second to finance the chronically inef - aspects of the battle against climate change. the option of closure. As with Reliance telecom operators’ lobby wrote a protesting letter ficient Food Corporation of India operations. There Communication, Reliance Industries’ Jio has deliv - to the United Progressive Alliance government is nothing to stop both of them stepping up to the ered the coup de grace , despite the mandated head - against a ~20,000-crore bailout proposal that DoT plate for two beleaguered telecom giants as well.

country, ceasefire agreements had been role that China has come to play in the Myanmar Army continuing to hold the concluded with several of the major country through its various infrastruc - key levers of power. In the author’s view, From Burma to Myanmar armed groups. They had been allowed ture projects and by promoting large- she has done remarkably well in playing to keep their armed forces and were scale trade through several border trade a complex political game, making com - ried pulse of daily life. The 300-odd pages The same racially tinged hostility is granted considerable autonomy, partic - points. In the Rakhine state, which has promises but seeking to uphold are packed with empathetic observation apparent in the more recent Rohingya ularly in economic matters. Some were also been a focus for Indian economic principle. She has obviously disappoint - and deep insights, which only underscore crisis, with Muslim Bengali-speaking and continue to be involved in the drug cooperation projects, the Chinese have ed those who made her into an iconic how little one knows about one of India’s communities in the Rakhine state being trade and those ranged along the border already put in place an oil and gas and idealistic figure, but she herself has closest neighbours that once was part of driven out in their tens of thousands in with China also enjoy tacit support and pipeline from the deep-water port of not seen herself in that role. Mr Dutta the British colonial Indian empire. a barely disguised bout of violent ethnic protection from Chinese authorities. Kyaukpyu to Kunming in the southern sees Myanmar’s future at this time of BOOK REVIEW The book has a Prologue and an cleansing. Mr Dutta has analysed this in With the advent of constitutional gov - Chinese state of Yunnan. This carries not transition as being intimately linked Epilogue with five chapters set in detail in Chapter 3, In Rakhine State , pro - ernment, flawed as it may be, there have only gas produced along the Rakhine with the personal and political fate of SHYAM SARAN between. For those interested in the his - viding a much-needed historical per - been efforts to bring these groups and coast but also oil and gas that may be ASSK. Political regression remains tory of India-Myanmar links Chapter 1, spective and a revealing survey of popu - the territories controlled by them into shipped from the Gulf, bypassing the nar - round the corner. The longer she weilds In Abhijit Dutta’s book, Myanmar in the India’s Farthermost Province , is a good lar sentiments among the majority the union. But it has been difficult to take row Malacca Straits, which may be easily power, limited as it may be, the better World: Journeys Through A Changing read. It traces the trajectory of how Buddhist population in the state. As he back the considerable local autonomy to interdicted. Kyaukpyu is also being the chances for the country and its peo - Burma , I was expecting a travelogue. The Indian migrants built the city of Rangoon points out, the latest exodus is only the which they have become accustomed developed as a Special Economic Zone, ple to finally take their rightful place in author tells his tale through journeys he (now Yangon) and ran the nuts and bolts most recent in a series of such involun - over the past nearly three decades. There where Chinese companies will be invest - the world. has undertaken both into the Myanmar of colonial administration. This kindled tary migrations. Racial and religious ani - has been a relapse into military con - ing. India’s own efforts to rebuild the heartland and to its ethnic peripheries, growing local resentment and even racial mosities run very deep, and there are no frontation between the Myanmar Army Sittwe Port further south and link it with The reviewer is a former foreign secretary and is but this book is a dense tapestry that prejudice, which eventually led to their easy answers to the humanitarian dilem - and some of the armed groups. The Mizoram, though river transport and a currently Senior Fellow, CPR draws upon the country’s history, its com - large-scale exodus back into India. That ma that they throw up. Chinese continue to use some of these highway are still not complete, pale in plex geography and its changing present. familiar fear of economic domination by Chapter 4, Burma By Any Other groups to maintain a constant pressure comparison to what the Chinese are MYANMAR IN THE WORLD: It offers a nuanced, if somewhat impres - an alien people has now been transferred Name , provides an informative narrative on the Myanmar government. It appears putting in place in Kyaukpyu. sionistic, perspective on the country and to the Chinese, whose extraction of the on Myanmar’s continuing challenge of unlikely that there would be an early The Epilogue offers a critique of Aung Journeys Through a Changing Burma its people. Having lived in Myanmar, I country’s rich resources and pervasive accommodating its various ethnic groups solution to this problem. San Suu Kyi’s (ASSK) leadership of the Abhijit Dutta found familiar echoes in descriptions of presence is making them the new target into the national mainstream. During the The final chapter on “The Green Myanmar government as State Aleph major cities, monuments and the unhur - of visceral hostility. Myanmar Army’s direct rule over the Borderlands” describes the dominating Councillor, constrained as she is by the 372 pages, ~799