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Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil

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Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil GOVERNO FEDERAL Ministério de Minas e Energia Ministro Bento Costa Lima Leite de Albuquerque Junior Secretária-Executiva Marisete Fátima Dadald Pereira Secretário de Planejamento e Desenvolvimento Energético Reive Barros dos Santos Secretário de Energia Elétrica Rodrigo Limp Nascimento Secretária de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Combustíveis Renováveis José Mauro Ferreira Coelho Secretário de Geologia, Mineração e Transformação Mineral Alexandre Vidigal de Oliveira Coordenação Geral Thiago Vasconcellos Barral Ferreira Equipe Técnica Bernardo Folly de Aguiar Bruno Abreu Bastos Empresa pública, vinculada ao Ministério de Minas e Energia, instituída nos termos da Lei n° 10.847, de 15 de março de 2004, a Cristina Maria Vasconcelos Falcão EPE tem por finalidade prestar serviços na área de estudos e Elisângela Medeiros de Almeida pesquisas destinadas a subsidiar o planejamento do setor Fernanda Corrêa Ferreira energético, tais como energia elétrica, petróleo e gás natural e seus Flavio Alberto Figueredo Rosa derivados, carvão mineral, fontes energéticas renováveis e Gustavo Brandão Haydt de Souza eficiência energética, dentre outras. Gustavo Pires da Ponte Helena Portugal Gonçalves da Motta Presidente João Henrique Magalhães Almeida Thiago Vasconcellos Barral Ferreira Josina Saraiva Ximenes Diretor de Estudos Econômico-Energéticos e Ambientais Giovani Vitória Machado Luciano Basto Oliveira Diretor de Estudos de Energia Elétrica Luisa Domingues Ferreira Alves Erik Eduardo Rego Marcos Vinicius Gonçalves da Silva Farinha Diretor de Estudos de Petróleo, Gás e Biocombustível (interino) Maria de Fátima de Carvalho Gama Giovani Vitória Machado Mariana de Assis Espécie Diretor de Gestão Corporativa (interino) Mariana de Queiroz Andrade Thiago Vasconcellos Barral Ferreira Paula Monteiro Pereira Rodrigo Vellardo Guimarães URL: http://www.epe.gov.br Samir de Oliveira Ferreira Sede Sergio Felipe Falcão Lima Esplanada dos Ministérios Bloco "U" - Ministério de Minas e Thiago Ivanoski Teixeira Energia - Sala 744 - 7º andar – 70065-900 - Brasília – DF Escritório Central No NT-EPE-PR-001/2020-r2 Av. Rio Branco, 01 – 11º Andar Data: 30 de abril de 2020 20090-003 - Rio de Janeiro – RJ Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil Apresentação Ao redor do mundo, a energia eólica offshore tem se mostrado uma opção cada vez mais viável para geração de energia renovável, impulsionada por políticas energéticas de apoio, em resposta a preocupações ambientais, e por avanços tecnológicos, desenvolvidos por cadeias de suprimentos amadurecidas em locais com uma grande quantidade de projetos implantados. Do total de instalações offshore no mundo, Reino Unido, Alemanha e China concentram mais de 90% dos 23,1 GW instalados (GWEC, 2019a). Em 2018, um total de 4,5 GW foram instalados, sendo que, pela primeira vez, a China foi responsável pela maior parte dos projetos instalados (Figura 1). 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 GW Instalados 1,5 1 0,5 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Reino Unido Alemanha Outros países europeus China Mundo Figura 1 – Evolução da instalação de novos parques eólicos offshore no mundo nos últimos 4 anos (adaptado de GWEC, 2019a). Além disso, para se atender ao compromisso da União Europeia de possuir 20% da matriz energética composta por energias renováveis até o ano de 2020, foi necessário desenvolver um conjunto de metas legalmente vinculantes e específicas para cada país, sendo que as políticas públicas desenvolvidas visaram a minimização de custos dos projetos e redução dos impactos sobre o contribuinte (NREL, 2017). Recentes números mostram que a Europa é o maior mercado do mundo em total de energia eólica offshore instalada e o maior em novas instalações, sendo capitaneado por Reino Unido e Alemanha, conforme ilustra a Figura 2. 3 Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil 18% 34% 23.1 GW 20% 28% Reino Unido Alemanha China Restante do Mundo Figura 2 – Capacidade instalada de parques eólicos offshore (adaptado de GWEC, 2019a). No mercado asiático, China, Japão, Taiwan, Coreia do Sul, Vietnã e Índia já apresentam algum desenvolvimento direcionado para as eólicas offshore, e estão tomando medidas para estimular as indústrias locais (NREL, 2017). Nas Américas, os Estados Unidos iniciaram suas atividades na indústria eólica offshore em 2016, com o lançamento do projeto Deepwater Wind, de 30 MW. Este marco foi acompanhado pelo aumento do apoio de políticas internas dos estados de Massachusetts, Nova York e Maryland para atrair a cadeia de energia eólica offshore (NREL, 2017). Sob este cenário, em setembro de 2016, foi lançada a Estratégia Nacional Eólica Offshore do Departamento do Interior (DOI), identificando as principais ações de pesquisa necessárias para se atingir um cenário de 86 GW implantados até 2050. A Estratégia Nacional de Energia Eólica Offshore delineia uma estrutura para desenvolver uma indústria offshore robusta e sustentável, reduzindo custos e riscos tecnológicos. Diante do exposto, constata-se que a fonte eólica offshore vem crescendo no mundo, o que motivou agentes, não somente do setor elétrico como também da indústria de petróleo e gás no Brasil, a buscar entender melhor o potencial e outras características referentes a essa fonte. Atenta à expansão observada para a fonte eólica offshore no cenário internacional nos últimos anos, a Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE, empresa pública vinculada ao Ministério de Minas e Energia, no âmbito de suas competências legais, tem empreendido esforços para inserir essa fonte na perspectiva do planejamento energético brasileiro. Os resultados desses estudos e pesquisas servem de base para a formulação e a avaliação de alternativas para atendimento dos serviços energéticos do país, assim como na elaboração de planos para a viabilização da expansão da oferta de energia, conforme as diretrizes, princípios e metas definidos, em geral, pela União através dos órgãos competentes, como o Conselho Nacional de Política Energética e o Ministério de Minas e Energia. 4 Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil O primeiro documento publicado pela EPE que contém essa temática foi o caderno de Recursos Energéticos, estudo que integra o Plano Nacional de Energia – PNE 20501 e que trouxe o mapeamento dos recursos energéticos disponíveis no país no horizonte de longo prazo. Nesse estudo consta o primeiro esforço institucional de mapeamento do recurso eólico offshore ao longo do litoral brasileiro. Mais recentemente, a fonte eólica offshore também foi inserida no horizonte de médio prazo, tendo sido considerada pela primeira vez como fonte candidata à expansão nas análises conduzidas no âmbito do Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia – PDE 20292. Além do crescimento dessa fonte no cenário internacional, a existência de empreendimentos eólicos offshore com processo de licenciamento ambiental aberto no Brasil em 2018 foi uma das motivações para a elaboração de um estudo dedicado à essa fonte, devido especialmente ao seu ineditismo no contexto nacional. Assim surgiu, por parte da EPE, a iniciativa de elaborar o Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil, estudo que tem como objetivo principal identificar possíveis barreiras e desafios a serem enfrentados para o desenvolvimento da fonte eólica offshore no Brasil e apontar algumas recomendações, do ponto de vista do planejador, além de compreender melhor os aspectos relativos a essa fonte. É importante ressaltar que esse documento não tem como finalidade a proposição de uma política de incentivo a essa fonte energética, mas sim estabelecer um ponto de partida para as discussões sobre a fonte eólica offshore concernentes ao planejamento energético e, com isso, estimular futuras discussões sobre o tema, de forma mais detalhada e específica para os pontos considerados mais relevantes. O processo de elaboração desse estudo esteve apoiado em pesquisas bibliográficas, utilizando principalmente referências internacionais e relatórios publicados sobre o tema. A fim de acompanhar as movimentações do mercado brasileiro sobre a fonte eólica offshore, a EPE manteve interações com diversos órgãos governamentais (MME, Aneel, Ibama, Marinha, SPU, entre outros), pesquisadores e empresas com projetos em desenvolvimento no país e/ou experiência nesse segmento internacionalmente. Há que se destacar as contribuições obtidas durante o workshop “Energia Eólica Marítima”, organizado pela EPE em abril de 2019, evento que contou com ampla participação de agentes interessados. Adicionalmente, a EPE contou com o apoio em ações de capacitação da equipe, incluindo missões técnicas, oferecidas pela Embaixada Britânica no Brasil, GIZ (Agência Alemã de Cooperação Internacional) e Banco Mundial. 1 http://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-227/topico- 416/NT04%20PR_RecursosEnergeticos%202050.pdf. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2020. 2 http://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-423/topico- 482/03%20Gera%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20Centralizada%20de%20Energia%20El%C3%A9trica.pdf. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2020. 5 Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil O presente documento foi estruturado em cinco capítulos temáticos, seguido das conclusões e de uma síntese dos desafios e ações propostas. Dessa forma, a EPE espera que o Roadmap Eólica Offshore Brasil possa contribuir para o amadurecimento do debate a respeito da fonte eólica offshore no país. Além disso, tendo em vista a dinâmica do mercado internacional, espera-se que o presente estudo possa auxiliar na identificação de oportunidades para o mercado brasileiro e, no contexto da modernização do setor elétrico
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