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Urbis Report Retail Sustainability Assessment Whitfords Activity Centre October 2014 Prepared for: Scentre Group URBIS STAFF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REPORT WERE: Director Jeff Armstrong Consultant Nick Cadle Job Code MPE1-2257 © Urbis Pty Ltd ABN 50 105 256 228 All Rights Reserved. No material may be reproduced without prior permission. You must read the important disclaimer appearing within the body of this report. URBIS Australia Asia Middle East urbis.com.au TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... i Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 1 Centre Description .......................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Regional Context ...............................................................................................................................3 1.2 Local Context .....................................................................................................................................3 1.3 Whitfords Composition and Layout....................................................................................................3 1.4 Current Development Application ......................................................................................................4 2 Market Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Trade Area Definition .........................................................................................................................7 2.2 Population Trends........................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 North-West Sub-Region and Joondalup Municipality ..................................................................... 10 2.2.2 Main Trade Area ............................................................................................................................. 12 2.2.3 Socio-Economic Characteristics ..................................................................................................... 13 2.3 Retail Spending .............................................................................................................................. 18 2.3.1 Methodology and Definitions .......................................................................................................... 18 2.3.2 Retail Spending Per Capita Rates .................................................................................................. 18 2.3.3 Retail Spending Volume ................................................................................................................. 19 3 Retail Supply .................................................................................................................................. 21 3.1 Centres Policy ................................................................................................................................. 21 3.1.1 Joondalup Local Commercial Strategy ........................................................................................... 21 3.2 Centres Hierarchy ........................................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Strategic Metropolitan Centres ....................................................................................................... 26 3.4 Secondary Centres ......................................................................................................................... 26 3.5 District Centres ............................................................................................................................... 27 3.6 Local Centres .................................................................................................................................. 27 3.7 Proposed Developments ................................................................................................................ 28 4 Existing Centre Performance ....................................................................................................... 30 4.1 Turnover Performance .................................................................................................................... 30 4.2 Market Share Performance ............................................................................................................ 30 5 Market Demand and Turnover Potential ..................................................................................... 32 5.1 Future Retail Development ............................................................................................................. 32 5.2 Assumptions ................................................................................................................................... 32 5.3 Market Demand Assessment ......................................................................................................... 33 5.4 Turnover Potential Assessment ...................................................................................................... 34 5.4.1 Whitfords with Current DA (54,420 sq.m) ....................................................................................... 34 5.4.2 Whitfords With an Additional 20,580 sq.m (75,000 sq.m) .............................................................. 34 5.4.3 Whitfords With an Additional 2,500 sq.m (77,500 sq.m) ................................................................ 36 6 Impact Assessment ....................................................................................................................... 37 6.1 Centre Specific Impacts .................................................................................................................. 37 6.2 Expansion by 20,580 sq.m to 75,000 sq.m .................................................................................... 38 6.3 Expansion by 2,500 sq.m (to 77,500 sq.m) .................................................................................... 40 6.4 Sensitivity Testing ........................................................................................................................... 40 7 Community Benefits ...................................................................................................................... 41 URBIS WHITFORDS ACTIVITY CENTRE RSA OCTOBER 2014 8 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 42 Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................................. 43 Appendix A PLUC 5 Categories APPENDIX B Sensitivity Analysis URBIS WHITFORDS ACTIVITY CENTRE RSA OCTOBER 2014 Executive Summary The main findings and conclusions in relation to the Retail Sustainability Assessment outlined in this report are as follows: . The Whitfords Activity Centre, by way of the Westfield Whitford City shopping centre, has been performing an important shopping function for residents of the middle and outer northern coastal suburbs of Perth since it opened in 1978. Whitfords Activity Centre serves as a key destination for both convenience and discretionary shopping needs. Whitfords Activity Centre is strategically located at the intersection of two main arterial roads, namely Marmion Avenue and Whitfords Avenue. This high profile location enables the centre to be easily accessible from the existing and developing northern coastal suburbs of Perth. The centre is well served by the suburban bus network, with several routes linking with the Whitfords railway station. The retail facilities within the Whitfords Activity Centre draw trade from throughout the North West Sub-Region of Perth and beyond this area, notably the immediate suburbs to the south. Based on exit survey information and key trade area definition parameters, the main trade area served by the Whitfords Activity Centre extends between 5 and 7 km from the centre. Reflecting the centre’s usage by consumers and the typical dispersed nature of shopping patterns, some 25% of retail turnover at Whitfords Activity Centre is sourced from markets outside the main trade area. This is and will continue to be an important market in support of retail facilities at the Whitfords Activity Centre. As of June 2013, the main trade area of the Whitfords Activity Centre contained approximately 151,280 people. Over the period to 2031, the main trade area population is forecast to increase to 174,700 people. In the North West Sub-Region of Perth, resident population is forecast to increase by approximately 158,020 between 2013 and 2031, to 504,120 by 2031. Ongoing population growth and real growth in retail spending per capita will increase the size of the retail market available to Whitfords Activity Centre and other centres throughout the region. Within the main trade area, the retail spending market is forecast to increase by $152 million between 2014 and 2017 and $716 million between 2014 and 2031 (or $51 million per annum). Retail spending by residents in the study area (main trade area and balance of the North West Sub-Region) is forecast to increase by about $3.4 billion (or $197 million
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