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Titan Company (TITIND) | 375 Target : | 435 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 16% Hopes Pinned on Strong Festive Season

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Titan Company (TITIND) | 375 Target : | 435 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 16% Hopes Pinned on Strong Festive Season Result Update November 7, 2016 Rating matrix Rating : Buy Titan Company (TITIND) | 375 Target : | 435 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 16% Hopes pinned on strong festive season... What’s changed? • Titan Company’s (Titan) Q2FY17 results were below our estimates on Target Changed from | 425 to | 435 EPS FY17E Changed from |9.2 to |8.9 the revenue and PAT front. However, the EBITDA margin was higher EPS FY18E Changed from | 12.4 to | 11.3 than our estimates EPS FY19E Introduced at |13.6 • Q2FY17 sales remained flat YoY to | 2652 crore (I-direct estimate: Rating Changed from Hold to Buy | 2955 crore) due to flattish performance of the jewellery segment to | 1987 crore (Q2FY16: | 1983 crore) and 5.2% decline in the watches Quarterly performance segment to | 523.7 crore. Jewellery segment revenues remained Q2FY17 Q2FY16 YoY (%) Q1FY17 QoQ (%) flattish due to grammage de-growth of 32% amid 21% increase in Revenue 2,636.4 2,654.7 -0.7 2,782.5 -5.2 gold price. The eyewear segment grew 7.6% to | 96.2 crore EBITDA 276.3 201.8 36.9 292.2 -5.4 • The operating margin improved 290 bps YoY to 10.5% (I-direct EBITDA (%) 10.5 7.6 288 bps 10.5 -2 bps estimate 9.9%) while EBITDA grew 36.9% YoY to | 276 crore (on a PAT 180.8 146.4 23.5 126.7 42.7 low base in Q2FY16) vs. our estimate of | 294 crore. EBITDA margins were aided by better gross margins from the jewellery and watches Key financials segment. Higher gross margins for jewellery segment were on the (| crore) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E back of higher studded ratio, which was at 42% in Q2FY17 Net Sales 11,265 12,338 14,024 15,957 • Though revenue growth remained flattish, an improvement in EBITDA 945 1,240 1,423 1,691 EBITDA margin enabled the company to report PAT growth 23.5% Net Profit 706 787 1,004 1,206 YoY to | 180.7 crore (I direct estimate: | 197.2 crore) EPS (|) 8.0 8.9 11.3 13.6 Looking for jewellery segment to shine in festive season Valuation Summary Q2FY17 revenues remained flattish due to the flat performance of the FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E jewellery segment in spite of a weak base in Q2FY16. However, the P/E 47.0 42.2 33.1 27.5 management indicated that sales during Dussehra to Diwali this year were Target P/E 54.7 49.0 38.4 32.0 strong and recorded growth of ~ 40% YoY. The strong performance in EV to EBITDA 35.1 26.7 23.1 19.3 the festive season should provide impetus to revenue growth in Q3FY17. Price to book 9.4 8.2 7.0 5.9 Titan has introduced several new collections before the festive season, RONW (%) 20.1 19.4 21.1 21.5 which, as per the management, have performed well. ROCE (%) 23.4 26.5 26.4 27.0 Enhanced share of studded jewellery to aid margin improvement Titan is looking to improve its studded gold jewellery share to total Stock Data revenues by enhancing its studded jewellery product portfolio. Higher Particular Amount share from studded jewellery would aid in improving the overall EBITDA Market Capitalisation (| Crore) 33,292.0 margin of the company. Debt (FY16) (| Crore) 113.1 H2FY17 likely to be stronger; long term growth story intact Cash (FY16) (| Crore) 111.7 EV (| Crore) 33,293.4 The slower growth in H1FY17 is expected to be compensated by higher 52 week H/L 445 / 303 growth in H2FY17 due to strong festive season sales in Q3FY17 and a Equity Capital (| Crore) 88.8 weak base Q4FY16 (due to jeweller’s strike in March 2016). The management indicated that the jewellery industry de-grew ~30% in Face Value (|) 1 H1FY17 suggesting tough times for the sector. However, Titan’s Price performance performance is commendable considering the tough regulatory 1M 3M 6M 12M environment curbing revenue growth for the sector with the management Titan Company -9.0 -9.4 2.4 5.9 indicting that the company may have gained market share. Also, the PC Jeweller -4.0 15.7 39.2 6.3 government’s decision to enhance the limit for golden harvest scheme to TBZ 14.6 14.4 15.4 -33.5 35% of company’s networth from the earlier mandated 25% would assist the company’s revenue growth. The management is continuing with its Research Analysts strategy of aggressive retail expansion and introduction of newer brands Bharat Chhoda at different price points. The company is also looking at garnering a [email protected] higher share of studded jewellery, which would aid in margin growth in Cheragh Sidhwa [email protected] FY18E and FY19E. We believe Titan would be a beneficiary of the shift from unorganised to organised players owing to its strong brand and pan- India retail presence. We maintain our positive stance on Titan with a revised target price of | 435 (based on 32.0x FY19E EPS of | 13.6). We have a BUY recommendation on Titan Company. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance analysis Q2FY17 Q2FY17E Q2FY16 YoY (%) Q1FY17 QoQ (%) Comments Revenues were lower than our estimates owing to the lower-than-expected performance of the jewellery segment. Jewellery segment revenues remained flattish owing to a decline in volumes due to high gold prices. Jewellery grammage de-growth of 32% happened amid a 21% increase in gold price YoY. Watches segment declined 5% with domestic growth of ~ 5%. However, lower exports and restructuring of the services business in Revenue 2,636.4 2,955.5 2,654.7 -0.7 2,782.5 -5.2 watches resulted in an overall decline in revenues for the watches segment Other Operating Income 15.9 21.6 18.8 -15.3 16.3 -2.3 Raw Material Expense 1,803.6 2,119.1 1,977.4 -8.8 1,974.5 -8.7 Employee Expenses 181.6 206.9 180.4 0.7 191.9 -5.4 Advertising Expenses 98.1 106.4 89.6 9.4 102.7 -4.5 Other Expenses 292.8 251.2 224.3 30.5 237.6 23.2 EBITDA 276.3 293.6 201.8 36.9 292.2 -5.4 The EBITDA margin increased 288 bps YoY due to EBIT margins of jewellery segment increasing 490 bps to 10.98%. The EBIT margin of the watches EBITDA Margin (%) 10.5 9.9 7.6 288 bps 10.5 -2 bps segment was down 283 bps to 12.28% Depreciation 26.0 26.8 24.0 8.2 26.1 -0.5 Interest 11.7 9.1 8.7 34.4 8.8 33.2 Other Income 11.7 12.5 13.8 -15.1 13.4 -12.3 PBT before Exceptional item 250.4 270.1 182.9 36.9 270.6 -7.5 Exceptional Item 3.0 96.9 Exceptional expense relates to one time expenditure on VRS PBT 247.4 270.1 182.9 35.3 173.8 -7.5 Tax Outgo 66.7 72.9 36.5 82.5 47.1 41.6 PAT 180.8 197.2 146.4 23.5 126.7 42.7 PAT growth was curtailed owing to higher tax rate Key Metrics Jewellery Revenues (| Crore) 1,987.5 2,219.5 1,982.7 0.2 2,138.3 -7.1 Segment EBIT Margin (%) 11.0 6.1 490 bps 9.5 144 bps Watches Revenues (| Crore) 523.7 557.4 552.4 -5.2 491.7 6.5 Segment EBIT Margin (%) 12.3 15.1 -283 bps 1.9 1041 bps Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates FY17E FY18E FY19E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Introduced Comments We have revised downwards our revenue Revenue 12,881.0 12,338.0 -4.2 15,095.0 14,024.5 -7.1 15,956.7 estimates for FY17E and FY18E EBITDA 1,243.0 1,240.0 -0.2 1,517.0 1,423.5 -6.2 1,691.4 EBITDA margin estimate for FY17 has been revised upwards owing to better margins in EBITDA Margin (%) 9.65 10.05 40 bps 10.05 10.15 10 bps 10.60 H1FY17 PAT 821.0 787.3 -4.1 1,102.0 1,004.3 -8.9 1,205.6 EPS (|) 9.7 8.9 -8.6 12.3 11.3 -8.0 13.6 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Company Analysis Revenue trajectory Strong festive season, new collections to boost revenues 18,000 During FY07-14, revenues grew at a CAGR of 26.6% led by a healthy 14,024 15,957 31.2% CAGR in the jewellery segment. Revenues increased from | 2,090 11,903 12,338 11,265 10,916 12,000 10,113 crore in FY07 to | 11,903 crore in FY15. We expect the same to increase to | 15957 crore by FY19E, translating to 12.3% CAGR in FY16-19E. | crore 6,000 During this period as well, we expect the jewellery and watches segment 3,565 3,398 3,088 2,898 2,854 2,783 2,787 2,655 2,650 2,636 2,474 2,437 2,290 to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 8%, respectively, in FY16-19E. Jewellery - 2,687 revenues in FY17 are expected to be buoyed by GHS redemption, which was absent in FY16 due to regulatory changes.
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