Assessment of the Potential for Geological Storage of CO2 for the Island of Ireland Assessment of the Potential for Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide for the Island of Ireland September 2008 Prepared for Sustainable Energy Ireland, Environmental Protection Agency, Geological Survey of Northern Ireland, Geological Survey of Ireland by: CSA Group in association with Byrne Ó Cléirigh, Ireland British Geological Survey, UK Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC), Australia Acknowledgment This report has been prepared through the collaborative team efforts of the following geoscientists and engineers in Ireland, UK and Australia: Dr Deirdre Lewis CSA Group, Ireland (Project Manager) Mr Richard Vernon CSA Group, Ireland Mr Nick O’Neill CSA Group, Ireland Mr Ric Pasquali CSA Group, Ireland Mr Tom Cleary Byrne Ó Cléirigh, Ireland Ms Michelle Bentham British Geological Survey, UK Ms Karen Kirk British Geological Survey, UK Dr Andy Chadwick British Geological Survey, UK Mr David Hilditch CO2CRC, Australia Dr Karsten Michael CO2CRC, CSIRO Australia Dr Guy Allinson CO2CRC, UNSW, Australia Dr Peter Neal CO2CRC, UNSW, Australia Dr Mihn Ho CO2CRC, UNSW, Australia The guiding inputs of the Steering Group to this study are gratefully acknowledged, in particular: Mr Graham Brennan, SEI Mr Bob Hanna, DCENR Mr Peter Croker, PAD Dr John Morris, GSI Mr Garth Earls and Mr Derek Reay, GSNI, Mr Frank McGovern, Mr Michael McGettigan and Ms Maria Martin of EPA Dr Morgan Bazilian, DCENR Considerable consultation took place with many others, whose inputs are also gratefully acknowledged: Mr Tom Reeves, Commissioner for Energy Regulation Mr Fergus Murphy and Mr Kieron Carroll, Marathon (Ireland) Mr. Shane Lynch, AES Kilroot Ms. Bernardine Maloney, ESB Moneypoint Murphy Pipelines Limited Irish Tube and Fittings Supply Limited Dr Peter Haughton, UCD Dr Chris Bean, UCD Mr John Gale, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme Mr Mike Haines, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme Mr Brendan Beck, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme Dr Elizabeth Wilson, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota i GLOSSARY OF TERMS & ACRONYMS Ireland Refers to the Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland Refers to Northern Ireland the island of Ireland/ Refers to Ireland and Northern Ireland combined all-island Ireland CO2 Carbon Dioxide CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CSA CSA Group Ltd (lead partner) BÓC Byrne Ó Cléirigh BGS British Geological Survey CO2CRC Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies, Australia DCENR Department of Communications, Energy & Natural Resources (Ireland) DETI Department of Enterprise, Trade & Investment (Northern Ireland) EPA Environmental Protection Agency (Ireland) EU European Union GSI Geological Survey of Ireland GSNI Geological Survey of Northern Ireland PAD Petroleum Affairs Division (DCENR) SEI Sustainable Energy Ireland CSLF Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum UNFPCC United Nations Framework Panel for Climate Change IEA_GHG International Energy Agency – Greenhouse Gas Programme IPCC International Panel on Climate Change IRGC International Risk Governance Council US DOE United States Department of Energy ETP ZEP European Technology Platform on Zero Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants EU-ETS European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme AR3, AR4 Third Assessment Report, Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC CER Certified Emissions Reductions CDM Clean Development Mechanism Depths (sub-sea) Measured from mean sea level (unless otherwise stated) ECBM Enhanced coal bed methane recovery EGR Enhanced gas recovery EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EOR Enhanced oil recovery ESHIA Environmental, Safety and Health Impact Assessment FEPS Frequencies, events, processes (risk analysis) FRAM Framework for Risk Assessment and Management of Storage of CO2 Streams in (OSPAR Convention 2007) Geological Formations GIS Geographical Information Systems MRG Monitoring & Reporting Guidelines (for emissions) REFIT Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff Scheme SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SIA Social Impact Assessment WP Work Package ABEX Abandonment expenditure CAPEX Capital expenditure COE Cost of Electricity EI Emissions intensity IGCC Integrated gasification combined cycle (power plant) mD Millidarcy – measure of permeability MWh Megawatt hour Mt Million tonnes Mtpa Millions tonnes per annum NESO Net electricity sent out OPEX Operating expenditure PC Pulverised coal PV Present value TWh Terawatt hour ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: FINAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OF CARBON DIOXIDE FOR THE ISLAND OF IRELAND International response to climate change has assumed a greater urgency since the publication of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fourth Assessment Report in late 2007 and governments globally are seeking ways in which to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Since the commencement of this study in mid-2007, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has moved up the political agenda and is now regarded as being potentially a major component of carbon abatement strategies, as early stage research and demonstration projects suggest that it is both technically and commercially viable to implement. The study adopted a phased approach through nine work packages (WP1 – WP9) agreed with the Client at the outset of the study, commencing with extensive data gathering and compilation to GIS to provide a preliminary geological assessment of likely storage basins and structures, both onshore and offshore the island of Ireland. This was followed by in-depth geological assessment of each identified structure/ basin, to quantify potential for storage of carbon dioxide (CO2). While geological assessment confirmed that there are significant data gaps for many basins, the study arrived at a reasoned, quantified assessment of Ireland’s geological storage potential. However, the paucity of deep geological data for many basins, particularly the offshore western basins, is the over-riding constraint to a full assessment of geological storage potential for CO2. The island’s major point source emissions were identified and power stations emerged as the priority candidates for capture if CCS economies of scale are to be achieved. An assessment of the all-island energy policy environment, current and future energy security and power generation mix, was used as a prism to provide an economic analysis of the most suitable technologies to capture, transport and sequester carbon, taking cognisance of Ireland’s demographics, energy requirements and the likely price of carbon to 2020 and beyond. The critical factor for the advancement of CCS on the island of Ireland is the geological viability of injection and storage in a suitable location on or offshore the Island. The depleting Kinsale Head gas field presents the best short term (<10 years) option, subject to further geological analysis and full reservoir simulation. Critically, there would be no logic in investing in expensive carbon capture technologies unless a proven geological storage site within acceptable socio-environmental risk parameters were to be available to take the captured CO2 into safe, long term storage. Geological Assessment of Storage Capacity An integrated assessment of the geological storage capacity of the island of Ireland was carried out for suitable onshore and offshore geological basins and structures (see Table Ex1 & Map 1 overleaf). The study estimated, using the techno-economic resource pyramid recommended by the international Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF, 2007), that the island has a total storage capacity of 93,115 Mt (see Figure 1). iii Figure 1: Techno Economic Resource Pyramid (CSLF 2007) This storage volume may be subdivided as follows: TOTAL QUANTIFIED CAPACITY 93,115 Mt x Theoretical Capacity: 88,770 Mt x Effective Capacity 3,507 Mt o of which 667 Mt is a subset of theoretical capacity; o of which 2,840 Mt is additional to theoretical capacity x Practical Capacity 1,505 Mt In the geological assessment, only theoretical, effective and limited practical capacities (see Table Ex.1 below) can be calculated due to limitations in deep geological data. To move these estimates up to the apex of the pyramid would require further geological and engineering studies for each structure. iv Table Ex.1 All-Island Ireland: Quantified Geological Storage Capacity for Carbon Dioxide ASSESSMENT OF THE ALL-ISLAND POTENTIAL FOR GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OF CO2 IN IRELAND QUANTIFIED GEOLOGICAL STORAGE CAPACITY (July 2008) Basin Structure Type Capacity Storage Quantified Classification Capacity Storage Capacity Mt Mt Kinsale Gas Field 330 South West Kinsale Gas Field Effective/ 5 1505 Spanish Point Gas Field Practical 120 East Irish Sea Oil & Gas Field 1050 Portpatrick Basin Sherwood Sandstone selected 37 structures Effective (subset of Central Irish Sea Sherwood Sandstone 630 (667) theoretical structures capacity) 667 Lough Neagh Basin Enler Group selected structures 1940 Effective Kish Bank Basin Sherwood sandstone structures (additional to 270 2840 East Irish Sea Basin Ormskirk structures theoretical 630 capacity) 2840 Celtic Sea - 1 structure in the Cretaceous A 40 sand Portpatrick Basin/ whole basin 2700 Larne Peel Basin Sherwood Sandstone whole Theoretical 68000 88770 basin NWICB Dowra Basin whole basin 730 Central Irish Sea whole basin 17300 Kish Bank Basin Carboniferous sandstone and coal Rathlin Basin Sherwood Sandstone, Permian and Carboniferous Celtic Sea Cretaceous A sand Porcupine Basin Theoretical / Slyne/Erris Basins un-quantified