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Identifying Conservation Priorities and Assessing Impacts and Trade‐Offs of Potential Future Development in the Lower Hunter Valley in New South Wales

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Identifying Conservation Priorities and Assessing Impacts and Trade‐Offs of Potential Future Development in the Lower Hunter Valley in New South Wales Identifying conservation priorities and assessing impacts and trade-offs of potential future development in the Lower Hunter Valley in New South Wales A report by the NERP Environmental Decisions Hub Heini Kujala, Amy L. Whitehead and Brendan A. Wintle The University of Melbourne The Environmental Decisions Hub is supported through funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program www.environment.gov.au/nerp and involves researchers from the University of Western Australia (UWA), The University of Melbourne (UM), RMIT University (RMIT), The Australian National University (ANU), The University of Queensland (UQ) and CSIRO . Identifying conservation priorities and assessing impacts and trade‐offs of potential future development in the Lower Hunter Valley in New South Wales. ISBN: 978‐07340‐5140‐0 (PDF) Hub Research Theme: 4.4 Regional Sustainability Plans (Hunter) Enquiries to: [email protected] © The University of Melbourne This work is copyright. It may be produced in whole or in part for study or training purposes subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgement of the source. It is not intended for commercial sale or use. Reproduction for other purposes other than those listed above requires the written permission from the authors. For permission to reproduce any part of this document, please approach the authors. Please cite the report as follows: Kujala H, Whitehead AL & Wintle BA (2015) Identifying conservation priorities and assessing impacts and trade‐offs of potential future development in the Lower Hunter Valley in New South Wales. The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria. Pp. 100 Purpose of the Report This report describes the framework and tools used to identify areas of high conservation priority in the Lower Hunter, and to assess the individual and cumulative impacts of potential future development scenarios. The report is an output of the Environmental Decisions Hub. About the Authors Dr Heini Kujala is a Research Fellow specialised in the use of spatial conservation tools to explore protected area effectiveness and resource optimisation, and building conservation recilience under climate change. Dr Amy Whitehead is an ecological modeller with interests in conservation planning and management across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Associate Professor Brendan Wintle is the deputy director of the Environmental Decisions Hub and specialises in uncertainty and environmental decision making. Acknowledgements We thank Ross Rowe, Dave Osborne, Huw Morgan, Jeremy Groves and Leanna Hayes (Department of the Environment); Meredith Laing, Ellen Saxon, Mary Greenwood, Bradley Nolan and Eva Twarkowski (HCCREMS); Paul Keighley, Amanda Wetzel and Dylan Maede (NSW Department of Planning and Environment); Mark Cameron, Sharon Molloy, Lucas Grenadier and David Paull (NSW Office of Environment and Heritage) for data, support and comments to this project. This independent research is contributing to regional sustainability planning in the Lower Hunter Region, jointly undertaken by the Australian Government and the Government of NSW. The research was funded by the Australian Government through the Sustainable Regional Development Program and the National Environmental Research Program (NERP), which supports science that informs environmental policy and decision making. The report is an output from the Environmental Decisions Hub. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 1 Description of the work ................................................................................................................ 1 Points to consider when interpreting the results ......................................................................... 2 Key findings ................................................................................................................................... 3 Conservation priorities and current protection of biodiversity in the LHSA region ................. 3 Potential impacts of development on biodiversity in the LHSA region.................................... 5 Recommendations ......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Glossary of Terms .................................................................................................................... 9 Description of threat categories .............................................................................................. 10 Frequently Used Abbreviations ............................................................................................... 11 Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 12 1.1. Purpose of the research project .......................................................................................... 12 1.2. Outline of the report ........................................................................................................... 13 1.3. Systematic conservation planning and spatial prioritisation – planning strategically for biodiversity ......................................................................................................................... 14 1.4. Regional Sustainability Planning and Strategic Assessment in Hunter Valley ..................... 15 1.5. Study area ............................................................................................................................ 16 1.6. Framework for mapping biodiversity patterns and prioritising options under development scenarios ............................................................................................................................. 18 1.7. Stakeholder and expert engagement .................................................................................. 19 1.8. Previous conservation priorities in the Lower Hunter Region ............................................ 21 Chapter 2 Biodiversity features included in the analysis .......................................................... 24 2.1. Flora and fauna species ....................................................................................................... 24 2.1.1. Species data: point occurrences and modelled distributions ...................................... 24 2.1.2. Additional species layers .............................................................................................. 25 2.2. Ecological Communities ....................................................................................................... 27 2.2.1 Nationally‐listed Ecological Communities ..................................................................... 27 2.2.2 State‐listed Endangered Ecological Communities ......................................................... 27 Chapter 3 Modelling species potential distribution patterns ................................................... 29 3.1 Modelling the distribution of threatened species ................................................................ 29 3.2. Species distribution modelling ............................................................................................ 29 3.2.3. Sampling bias layers ..................................................................................................... 29 3.1.4. Environmental variables ............................................................................................... 30 3.2. Species distribution modelling ............................................................................................ 31 3.2.1. Modelling species distributions using MaxEnt ............................................................. 31 3.2.2 Modelling EEC distributions using boosted regression trees ........................................ 33 3.2.3. Model selection ............................................................................................................ 33 3.3. Results .................................................................................................................................. 34 3.3.1. Model performance ...................................................................................................... 34 3.3.2. Regional distribution patterns and uncertainty ........................................................... 37 3.4. Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 38 3.4.1. Overview ....................................................................................................................... 38 3.4.2. Limitations and sources of uncertainty ........................................................................ 38 Chapter 4 Spatial conservation prioritisation of the Lower Hunter Region .............................. 41 4.1. Prioritising areas for conservation – the algorithm ............................................................. 41 4.2. Features used in the prioritisation ...................................................................................... 44 4.3. Weighting of features .......................................................................................................... 44 4.4. Protected Areas ................................................................................................................... 46 4.5. Results .................................................................................................................................
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