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Universidade De Brasília Instituto De Relações Internacionais Programa De Pós-Graduação Em Relações Internacionais UNIVERSIDADE DE BRASÍLIA INSTITUTO DE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS Ulysses Tavares Teixeira PROMOÇÃO DE DEMOCRACIA E APOIO A GOVERNOS AUTORITÁRIOS PELOS ESTADOS UNIDOS: TRANSIÇÕES DE REGIME E REALINHAMENTOS DE POLÍTICA EXTERNA NO IRÃ E NO EGITO Brasília 2016 ULYSSES TAVARES TEIXEIRA PROMOÇÃO DE DEMOCRACIA E APOIO A GOVERNOS AUTORITÁRIOS PELOS ESTADOS UNIDOS: TRANSIÇÕES DE REGIME E REALINHAMENTOS DE POLÍTICA EXTERNA NO IRÃ E NO EGITO Tese apresentada ao Programa de Pós- Graduação em Relações Internacionais da Universidade de Brasília como requisito parcial à obtenção do título de Doutor em Relações Internacionais. Área de concentração: Política Internacional e Comparada. Orientadora: Maria Helena de Castro Santos Brasília 2016 FICHA CATALOGRÁFICA TEIXEIRA, Ulysses Tavares Promoção de Democracia e Apoio a Governos Autoritários pelos Estados Unidos: transições de regime e realinhamentos de política externa no Irã e no Egito / Ulysses Tavares Teixeira – Brasília, 2016. 328 f. Tese apresentada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais da Universidade de Brasília como requisito parcial à obtenção do título de Doutor em Relações Internacionais. Área de concentração: Política Internacional e Comparada. Orientadora: Dra. Maria Helena de Castro Santos 1. Egito. 2. Irã. 3. Estados Unidos. 4. Alinhamento de Política Externa; 5. Transição de Regime. Ulysses Tavares Teixeira PROMOÇÃO DE DEMOCRACIA E APOIO A GOVERNOS AUTORITÁRIOS PELOS ESTADOS UNIDOS: TRANSIÇÕES DE REGIME E REALINHAMENTOS DE POLÍTICA EXTERNA NO IRÃ E NO EGITO Tese apresentada ao Programa de Pós- Graduação em Relações Internacionais da Universidade de Brasília como requisito parcial à obtenção do título de Doutor em Relações Internacionais. Área de concentração: Política Internacional e Comparada. Aprovado em: 16/12/2016 COMISSÃO EXAMINADORA Profa. Dra. Maria Helena de Castro Santos Instituto de Relações Internacionais – Universidade de Brasília (Orientadora) Prof. Dr. Virgílio Caixeta Arraes Departamento de História – Universidade de Brasília Prof. Dr. Rafael Antônio Duarte Villa Instituto de Relações Internacionais – Universidade de São Paulo Prof. Dr. Matias Spektor Escola de Relações Internacionais – Fundação Getúlio Vargas Prof. Dr. Antônio Jorge Ramalho da Rocha Instituto de Relações Internacionais – Universidade de Brasília Prof. Dr. Juliano da Silva Cortinhas Instituto de Relações Internacionais – Universidade de Brasília AGRADECIMENTOS A história desta tese coincide com uma história de vida. Ela representa processos de crescimento pessoal, consciência profissional e maturidade acadêmica. A experiência que levou ao seu desenvolvimento é anterior ao início do próprio doutorado e envolve uma mistura de decisões planejadas, caminhos incertos e boas influências. Impossível não começar com uma forte referência a Maria Helena de Castro Santos. Orientadora da iniciação científica, do mestrado e do doutorado; professora de Metodologia de Pesquisa e de Política Comparada; coordenadora do grupo de pesquisa em Política Externa Americana e Promoção de Democracia; coautora de dezenas de artigos; amiga e conselheira. Saiba que a senhora é exemplo de vida, inspiração para a carreira e maior incentivadora para que eu chegasse até aqui. Reconhecimento importante também merece ser dado ao Instituto de Relações Internacionais e à Universidade de Brasília, que me acolheram por longos treze anos. Lá ocupei praticamente todos os espaços possíveis, desde calouro de graduação a professor paraninfo. Agradeço aos professores do quadro e aos funcionários da secretaria pelo comprometimento com o trabalho e por terem acreditado em mim. Sou grato às oportunidades que este ambiente me proporcionou e guardarei com carinho as interações, as lembranças e os aprendizados multiculturais e interdisciplinares que dificilmente conseguiria ter obtido em outro lugar. Os colegas de debates teórico- metodológicos que aqui encontrei viraram amigos e passarão das aulas para a vida. Ex-alunos e ex-orientandos merecem palavras de destaque. Lembro-lhes que a carreira de professor exige compromissos formais sérios demais para serem tomados sem que se tenha a certeza da vocação para a docência. RELx, RELtc, RELhab, RELmos e Waffles foram as melhores turmas que um professor iniciante poderia ter tido e transformaram dificuldades em desafios. O trabalho que desenvolvi foi mais que compensado pelo esforço, pela participação, pela criatividade, pelo aprendizado e pela amizade de todos vocês. Indispensável um agradecimento mais que especial àqueles responsáveis por manter a minha sanidade em meio a tantas responsabilidades, novidades e dificuldades. Janete e Humberto, meus pais, e Valéria, minha irmã, fazem juz a todas as qualidades positivas que se pode atribuir à palavra família. Apoio incondicional é uma expressão fraca para representar o fato de terem estado ao meu lado a vida toda. Não apenas a conclusão da tese é resultado da presença deles, mas o homem que me tornei. Agradeço profundamente pela confiança, pelo carinho, pelos incentivos e pela compreensão. Por fim, não poderia deixar de mencionar aquela que foi a maior interlocutora dos debates levantados pela tese. Carol foi e é companheira em todos os momentos. Ela conhece todos os passos aqui tomados e sua influência é inegável ao longo dos capítulos. Das discussões sobre política externa no meio da madrugada, passando pela revisão do texto da tese e até o carinho com que tomou conta de mim nos desesperadores meses finais deste trabalho, sua presença jamais será esquecida. Saiba que nenhuma das descobertas dos meus ―tempos de doutorado‖ foi mais importante que você. Politics are just as much a part of life as gambling or poetry; and it is extremely instructive to see how impotent the political opinions which men think, are to produce action, and how potent the political prejudices which men feel, are to produce it. George Bernard Shaw, letter of December 2, 1984. RESUMO A doutrina de política externa dos Estados Unidos, ainda muito fundamentada em premissas liberais, tem evoluído na direção de acreditar que um mundo mais democrático será mais seguro e mais próspero aos interesses americanos. Não foram raras as vezes, entretanto, nas quais os desejos de promover democracia entraram em conflito com o apoio a ditaduras que prometiam estabilidade, protegiam interesses econômicos imediatos, ou se alinhavam com Washington contra inimigos externos. Mas o que aconteceria se uma transição de regime se iniciasse em um país cuja ditadura era apoiada pelos Estados Unidos? Será que o novo regime, mais democrático, não manteria rancores antiamericanos? Será que os interesses econômicos e de segurança dos Estados Unidos estariam assegurados em tal país? Esse trabalho avalia o impacto do relacionamento americano com regimes autoritários na direção assumida pela política externa desses países após movimentos de transição política. São analisadas seis mudanças de regime liberalizantes e autocratizantes ocorridas em diferentes momentos no Egito e no Irã desde a década de 1970. Argumenta-se que os realinhamentos de política externa pós-transição são condicionados pelo tipo de relacionamento que os americanos mantinham com o regime autoritário anterior. Defende-se que o apoio americano, ou a falta de apoio, influencia o jogo da transição e condiciona as preferências externas da oposição, determinando o conteúdo dos discursos nacionalistas emergentes e afetando as estratégias políticas domésticas que se seguem. Os casos são avaliados pela investigação dos mecanismos causais do modelo explicativo proposto, em uma estratégia conhecida como process-tracing, e depois comparados. Palavras-chave: Egito. Irã. Estados Unidos. Alinhamento de Política Externa. Transição de Regime. ABSTRACT The United States foreign policy doctrine, still deeply grounded on liberal assumptions, has evolved in the direction of believing that a more democratic world will be safer and more prosperous to American interests. It has not been uncommon, however, that the desire to promote democracy conflicted with the support granted to dictatorships that promised stability, protected immediate economic interests, or aligned with Washington against foreign enemies. But what would it happen if a regime transition began in a country whose dictatorship was supported by the United States? Would the new, more democratic regime not maintain anti-American resentment? Would the U.S. economic and security interests be assured in such a country? This thesis assesses the impact of the American relationship with authoritarian regimes by considering the foreign policy realignments of these countries after a political transition. Six liberalizing and autocratic regime changes taking place at different times since the 1970‘s in Egypt and Iran are analyzed. It is argued that post-transition foreign policy realignments are conditioned by the kind of relationship that the Americans maintained with the previous authoritarian regime. It is believed that the American support, or non-support, influences the transition and affects the foreign preferences of the opposition, determining the content of emerging nationalist discourses and having an impact on the domestic political strategies t hat follow. The cases are evaluated by the investigation of the causal mechanisms of the proposed explanatory model, in a strategy known as process-tracing, and then comparatively analysed. Keywords: Egypt. Iran. United States. Foreign Policy Alignment. Regime Change. LISTA DE ILUSTRAÇÕES
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