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Planning of Drought Management -Konya Basin Case Study

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Planning of Drought Management -Konya Basin Case Study REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRS GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF WATER MANAGEMENT PLANNING OF DROUGHT MANAGEMENT -KONYA BASIN CASE STUDY- Cancun, 2017 OUTLINE • Drought Concept and Definitions • Konya Basin • Methodology and Approach – Climate Model – Drought Analyses – Hydrological Studies • Findings – Effects of Climate Change – Expected Changes in Water Budget – Sectoral Vulnerability • Drought Management Plan (2/44) Drought Concept and Definitions (3/44) DROUGHT AS A NATURAL DISASTER Definition (UNCCD,1994): Drought means the naturally occurring phenomenon that exists when; Precipitation has been significantly below long term average of recorded levels which; Adversely affects water, soil and living creatures, Causes serious hydrological imbalances, (4/44) OCCURRENCE OF DROUGHTS Natural Climate Variability High Temperature, Low Precipitation Deficiency Relative Humidity Increase in Evaporation and Drought Reduced Infiltration, Runoff Transpiration Meteorological Meteorological Soil Water Deficiency Plant Water Stress, Reduced Drought Drought Biomass and Yield Agricultural Reduced Streamflow, Inflow to Time (Duration) Time Reservoirs, Lakes, and Ponds Drought Drought Hydrological Hydrological Economic Social Environmental Impacts Impacts Impacts (5/44) Adapted From: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, USA HISTORICAL DROUGHT EVENTS 200 • Thousands of people died 180 160 and migrated after the 140 120 droughts occurred in 1804, 100 80 1874-1876, 1928 and 1933. 60 40 • 1972-1974, 1989-1990, 20 0 1993, 1998-2001, 2006- (Gwh) GenerationPower Annual 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 and 2013 were the Adıgüzel Barajı-HES Keer Barajı-HES recent drought periods of 0.46 Turkey. 0.44 0.42 These droughts caused 0.4 • 0.38 NDVi impacts on food and energy 0.36 0.34 production and restrained 0.32 access to municipal water 0.3 in big cities. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (6/32) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT In order to minimize and avoid drought impacts Measures are defined for pre-drought , during drought and post-drought stages. Measures have to include: • Actions to increase drought resilience • Crisis planning during drought events • Recovery works after drought (7/44) PROJECTS Finished Ongoing Planned (8/44) Konya Basin (9/44) KONYA BASIN Annual Precipitation (Long term average) Average (Turkey) = 593 mm Average (Konya Basin) = 384 mm (Less than most of the African Countries) (10/44) KONYA BASIN 250 mm 600 mm Annual Precipitation (11/44) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN OF KONYA BASIN – Aim of the Study: • Prepare Drought Management Plan for the Konya Basin on the basis of integrated river basin management approach. • Mitigate the prospective drought risks by defining appropriate measures to be taken before, during and after droughts. – Konya Basin Drought Management Plan will be used by many different institutions related to water. – Most of which contributed to the studies by participating to regular meetings as stakeholders. Main Stakeholders of the Project (12/44) STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT Stakeholder Meetings Kickoff Meeting Education Programs Field Studies (13/44) Methodology and Approach (14/44) PROJECT STAGES AT A GLANCE DATA COLLECTION CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHT SECTORAL STUDIES PROJECTIONS ANALYSES (SENSITIVITY) HYDROLOGICAL AND SECTORAL HYDROGEOLOGICAL STUDIES VULNERABILITY DROUGHT MAPS - DROUGHT DATABASE MANAGEMENT PLAN (15/44) CLIMATE IS CHANGING (16/44) Data Source: climate.nasa.gov CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY MPI Model_Mean Temperature RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100) (17/44) CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY MPI Model_Total Precipitation RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100) (18/44) CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days/30 years (19/44) CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY Precipitation Indices 1 Day Consecutive 5 Days Max Consecutive Max Precip. Wet days Dry Days Precip. Heavy Precip.Day Very Heavy Precip.Day (20/44) CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSES OF KONYA BASIN MPI-ESM-MR, HadGEM2-ES & GFDL-ESM2M. Regional Climate Models RCP 4.5 & RCP8.5 were run for 2015 2050 – RegCM 4.3.5 period. 10x10km Temperature, precipitation, evaporation, etc. estimates were computed. Estimates were later used in hydrologic modeling to assess runoff, water depth, groundwater levels and water budget calculations. (21/44) DROUGHT ANALYSES Trend analyses were made to detect possible climate change effects Konya (17245) station, annual precipitation trend Konya Basin Mean Annual Precipitaion Annual precipitation shows a clear decreasing trend. … The climate change is already affecting the basin. (22/44) DROUGHT ANALYSES Drought , Index studies studies Drought Drought Drought Drought Foresight Scenarios Scenarios Monitoring Hydrological Risk AnalysisRisk Meteorological Meteorological analyses were Climate Change Agrohydrological Historical Analysis Historical Snowfall important important Snowfall Agricultural Drought Agricultural ClimatoogicDrought conducted Normal Precipitation Percentage * * using several Standardized Precipitation Index * * * Palmer Drought Intensity Index * * * * different Palmer Hydrological Drought Index * * drought Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index * Aydeniz Index indices and Surface Water Supply Index * * indicators. Erinç Drought Index * * NormalizedVegetation Variation Index * Aridity Index * * * * (23/44) HYDROLOGICAL STUDIES Hydro- Hydrology Hydrogeology Modelling Water Budget Meteorology (24/44) HYDROLOGIC MODELLING Kulu Lake Subbasin Gökgöl Subbasin Tersakan Lake Subbasin (25/44) Findings (26/44) DROUGHT EVENTS 1972-1974 1984-1985 2000-2001 2004-2005 2004-2008 2013 Probability distribution of Drought Occurrence by means of PDSI time series (27/44) AREAS AFFECTED BY DROUGHTS Konya Basin (1972-1974) (28/44) WATER BUDGET GW Annual Volume of GW Used SW Pot Avg. Precipitation Evapotranspiration Sectors Sub Basin No Pot Precipitation (hm³) (hm³) 384 mm 14714 hm³ (hm³) 19450 hm³ Cooperatives 1156,4 Beyşehir 16/1 832 111 Public irrigation 2071 Konya 16/2 370 620 Annual Runoff GW Recharge Municipal 137,9 Karaman 16/3 375 226 2303 hm³ 2433 hm³ Industry 61,3 Ereğli-Bor 16/4 215 338 Total 3426,7 Aksaray 16/5 489 529 Surface Water Spring Water Potantial 16/6 105 86 373 hm³ Altıeki 2676 hm³ SW Used Cihanbeyli 16/7 145 97 Sectors (hm³ Yukarı- 16/8 69 46 1446,4 kabakulak Gross Surface DSİ & İÖİ Water transfer Percolation Water Potantial Misli 16/9 78 173 420 hm³ 166 hm³ Public irrigation 74,8 2930 hm³ Total 2679 2226 (From Göksu River Municipal 41,9 Basin – Mavi Tünel) Industry 6,1 Gross Renewable Groundwater Water Potantial Total 1569,2 2226 hm³ 5156 hm³ Annual Usable Surface Annual Usable Water Annual Usable Water Potantial GroundWater 1863 hm³ 3866 hm³ 2003 hm³ Currently Used Surface Total Water Used Currently Used Mevcut Tüketilen Su Water Annually Groundwater 183hm³ hm³ 1569 hm³ 4996 hm³ 3427 hm³ (29/44) GROUNDWATER BUDGET ESTIMATIONS FOR DIFFERENT MODELS AND SCENARIOS 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Groundwater (hm³/year) Groundwater (hm³/year) 1500 1000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (30/44) EXPECTED WATER SHORTAGES PROJECTED WATER POTANTIAL vs. WATER REQUIREMENT 5500 hm³ 5000 hm³ 4500 hm³ 4000 hm³ 3500 hm³ 3000 hm³ 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 WATER SHORTAGE AVAILABLE WATER (31/44) SECTORAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 20152040205020302025 (32/44) SECTORAL WATER DEMAND GROUND WATER REQUIREMENT 3500 61 63 65 67 138 3250 70 143 72 96 99 103 109 3227 79 3191 3155 3000 3119 3083 115 3046 88 2750 126 2866 98 109 137 2685 2500 122 161 2504 2250 136 Water Requirement (hm³) 196 2323 2000 237 2142 1750 1961 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 IRRIGATION MUNICIPAL WATER INDUSTRY Main goal is to decrease ground water demand by establishing surface water supply projects and utilizing modern agricultural techniques. (33/32) Drought Management Plan (34/44) MAIN PRINCIPLES OF KONYA BASIN DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN 1. Improve Water Availability Monitoring and Drought Impact Assessment 2. Increase Public Awareness and Education 3. Enhance Mechanisms to Provide Water Supplies to Sub-basins That Are Under Risk of Water Shortage During Droughts 4. Coordinate and Provide Technical Assistance for Planning Efforts for Development of Water and Soil Resources by Local Administrations, General and Regional Directorates of Ministries 5. Reduce Water Demand, Encourage Water Use Efficiency and Conservation of Water Resources and Water Quality 6. Reduce Drought Impacts on Konya Basin’s Economy, People and Ecosystem 7. Develop Interagency Stakeholder Coordination 8. Evaluate Potential Impacts from Climate Change (35/44) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN DROUGHT STAGES Normal Mild Moderate Severe Conditions Drought Drought Drought (By considering the information obtained from all of the analyses conducted) Drought Management Plan of Konya Basin provides answers to these questions: 1. What are the actions that should be taken for each stage. 2. Who is responsible from taking the action. 3. How the action should be taken. DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN INCLUDES MORE THAN 100 DETAILED ACTIONS (36/44) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN (37/44) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN (38/44) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN (39/44) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN First Stage Dismantle all Monitoring measures Second Stage First Stage Dismantle Close unnecessary monitoring measures Third Stage Put all Second measures in Stage Drought Put required Management measures into Plan into effect effect (40/44) DROUGHT MANAGEMENT WEB SITE kuraklikyonetimi.ormansu.gov.tr
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