Economic Vitality Study
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June 2009 Final Technical Report ECONOMIC VITALITY ANALYSIS STUDY Prepared for: County of San Diego Airports Prepared by: McCLELLAN‐PALOMAR AIRPORT 2008 ECONOMIC VITALITY ANALYSIS FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT Prepared for: County of San Diego Airports June 2009 Prepared by: 401 B Street, Suite 600 San Diego, CA 92101 www.kimley‐horn.com Final Technical Report 1 Economic Vitality Analysis 2008 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Final Technical Report 2 2008 Economic Vitality Analysis Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................... 7 Section 1 – STUDY BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Methodology for the Economic Vitality Analysis ................................................................................. 10 1.3 McClellan‐Palomar Airport Overview .................................................................................................. 11 1.4 Regional Socioeconomic Trends .......................................................................................................... 11 1.4.1 City of Carlsbad and North County West MSA ................................................................................. 13 1.4.2 San Diego County .............................................................................................................................. 16 1.5 Current Economic Environment .......................................................................................................... 17 1.5.1 General Aviation Outlook ................................................................................................................. 17 1.5.2 Airline Industry Outlook .................................................................................................................... 19 Section 2 – DIRECT AND INDIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF AIRPORT ACTIVITY ....................................... 23 2.1 Direct Employment .............................................................................................................................. 23 2.2 Direct Income ....................................................................................................................................... 23 2.3 Direct Revenues ................................................................................................................................... 23 2.4 Indirect Impacts Due to Visitor Spending ............................................................................................ 23 2.4.1 Indirect Employment and Income Generated by Visitor Spending ............................................... 24 2.5 Summary of Direct and Indirect Impacts ............................................................................................. 25 Section 3 – OTHER INDIRECT AND INDUCED ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM AIRPORT ACTIVITY .................. 27 3.1 Other Indirect Employment, Income, and Revenue ............................................................................ 27 3.2 Induced Employment, Income, and Revenue ...................................................................................... 27 Section 4 – TAX IMPACTS GENERATED BY AIRPORT ACTIVITIES ................................................................. 29 4.1 State and Local Tax Impacts ................................................................................................................. 29 Section 5 – IMPACTS FROM AIRPORT CAPITAL PROJECTS ........................................................................... 31 5.1 Direct Impacts ...................................................................................................................................... 31 5.2 Indirect and Induced Effects ................................................................................................................ 31 Final Technical Report 3 Economic Vitality Analysis 2008 Section 6 – COMPARISON TO OTHER AIRPORTS .......................................................................................... 33 6.1 Comparison with Previous Studies ...................................................................................................... 33 6.2 Comparison with Other Airports .......................................................................................................... 33 6.2.1 Bradley International Airport ......................................................................................................... 33 6.2.2 Bob Hope Airport .......................................................................................................................... 34 6.2.3 Bowman Field Airport .................................................................................................................... 34 6.2.4 Ernest A. Love Field Airport .......................................................................................................... 34 6.2.5 Willow Run Airport ........................................................................................................................ 34 Section 7 – TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND ESTIMATE OF FUTURE ECONOMIC IMPACTS ..................... 35 7.1 Total Economic Contribution ............................................................................................................... 35 7.2 Estimate of Future Economic Impact ................................................................................................... 36 7.2.1 Growth Scenario One – FAA TAF .................................................................................................... 36 7.2.2 Growth Scenario Two – Designation as a Reliever Airport ............................................................. 37 APPENDICES Appendix A – Airport Data Comparison Table Appendix B – Paper Surveys Final Technical Report 4 2008 Economic Vitality Analysis List of Tables Table 1.1 – Historical and Forecast Population Growth ‐ City of Carlsbad 14 Table 1.2 – Historical and Forecast Employment Growth ‐ City of Carlsbad 14 Table 1.3 – Historical and Forecast Medium Household Income‐City of Carlsbad 15 Table 1.4 – Historical and Forecast Population and Employment Growth – San Diego County 16 Table 2.1 – Off–Airport Impacts Related to Visitor Spending 24 Table 2.2 – Summary of Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts 25 Table 3.1 – Summary of Induced Economic Impacts 28 Table 4.1 – Estimated 2008 State and Local Tax Impacts 29 Table 5.1 – Summary of 2008 Capital Improvement Program Impacts 31 Table 7.1 – Total Economic Impacts of McClellan‐Palomar Airport in 2008 35 Table 7.2 – Estimated 2030 Total Economic Impacts – Growth Scenario One 36 Table 7.3 ‐ Estimated 2030 Total Economic Impacts ‐ Growth Scenario Two 37 List of Exhibits Exhibit 1.1 – Airport Facilities 12 Final Technical Report 5 Economic Vitality Analysis 2008 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Final Technical Report 6 2008 Economic Vitality Analysis EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERVIEW INDIRECT IMPACTS McClellan‐Palomar Airport provides valuable Indirect impacts derived primarily from off‐ general aviation, corporate and commercial airport economic activities attributed to services acting as an economic engine for North McClellan‐Palomar Airport air passenger, freight San Diego County and the City of Carlsbad, movement, and other on‐airport aviation California. The global reach of aircraft and business in 2008 included: capabilities of the airport, with its international • Visitors to the area spend an average of customs operations, serve to provide important $273 per day linkage for the County to a global economy. The Airport serves as the gateway to world‐class • $23.34 million of personal income earned resorts and as a means for local and visiting by 692 area employees supported by business people to travel to and from the area to McClellan‐Palomar Airport conduct business. The Airport is a facilitator for • $61.76 million of business sales generated North County jobs. Economic activities related to by visiting passengers for hotels, the Airport generate hundreds of millions of restaurants, retails store local dollars of income and revenue for the transportation and other recreational surrounding local communities. providers STUDY • $2.72 million in personal income earned by A 2008 Economic Vitality Analysis Study was 65 people, and $6.81 million in revenue conducted to assess the importance, value and generated by expenditures with off‐airport economic impact McClellan‐Palomar Airport businesses affords the local community, and to understand • State and local tax revenues of its vitality as an integral transportation element. approximately $5.23 million. DIRECT IMPACTS INDUCED IMPACTS Direct impacts from on‐airport activities Induced impacts reflect the multiplier effects of occurring at McClellan‐Palomar Airport by direct and indirect impacts, resulting from airlines, airport management, fixed base increases in employment and income over and operators, and other tenants in 2008 resulted in above the combined direct and indirect impacts, the following: in the San Diego‐Carlsbad‐San Marcos area. In • $21.96 million in personal income earned 2008, these impacts included: by the 360 people employed at the airport; • 1,446 jobs a top 20 employer in the City • $44.76 million in personal