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© Colmar Brunton Confidential
New Zealand’s ‘most respected’ market research company
ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll
July 31-August 4, 2010
PREPARED FOR ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll
ATTENTION Television New Zealand
ISSUE DATE 08/08/10
CONTACT[S] (09) 919 9200
Colmar Brunton Confidential
ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll
Poll Method Summary
RELEASED: Sunday 8th August, 2010
POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from July 31st – August 4th, 2010
SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,011 eligible voters
SAMPLE SELECTION: Random nationwide selection using a type of stratified sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of people in urban and rural areas.
SAMPLE ERROR: Based on a total sample of 1000 Eligible Voters, the maximum sampling error estimated is plus or minus 3.1%, expressed at the 95% confidence level.
METHOD: Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).
WEIGHTING: The data has been weighted to Department of Statistics Population Estimates to ensure it is representative of the population in terms of age, gender, household size and ethnic origin.
REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 5% which are reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1% which are reported to 1 decimal place.
METHODOLOGY The party vote question has been asked unprompted as at February 1997.
NOTE: The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the outcome of an election. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be misleading to report otherwise. Publication or reproduction of the results of this poll must be acknowledged as the “ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll”.
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Summary of Poll Results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National 49% Steady from 22nd-26th May 2010
Labour 35% Up 2%
Green Party 7% Steady
ACT NZ 3% Up 1%
The Maori Party 2% Down 2%
NZ First 2% Up 1%
PARTY SUPPORT – ELECTORATE VOTE
National 52% Up 4% from 22nd-26th May 2010
Labour 40% Up 6%
The Maori Party 3% Down 1%
Green Party 2% Down 3%
ACT NZ 1% Down 1%
NZ First 1% Steady
UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote 9% Down 2% from 22nd-26th May 2010
Electorate Vote 13% Steady from 22nd-26th May 2010
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Summary of Poll Results
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
Key 45% Down 1% from 22nd-26th May 2010
Goff 9% Up 3%
Peters 3% Up 1%
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Optimism 55% Down 1% from 22nd-26th May 2010
Pessimism 25% Down 1%
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Key Political Events: July 2nd – August 4th 2010
Finance Minister Bill English announces the Corrections Department is to become the largest government department within a few years in terms of staff. Labour MP Steve Chadwick proposes a new law to legalise abortion on request for women up to 24 weeks into pregnancy. The Auckland, Canterbury and Southland Primary Principals Associations issue recommendations that their principals withdraw their attendance at national standards training in a standoff between schools and the Ministry of Education. John Key dampens speculation that MPs are bound for a 10% pay rise Labour MP Raymond Huo faces strong criticism for defending Chinese rule over Tibet on a Labour Party website. Figures that show foreigners have bought into more than 150,000 hectares of NZ farm land in the past 5 years are released. John Key says he opposes the sale of large tracts of productive land to overseas investors. John Key visits Vietnam to mark the 35th anniversary of diplomatic relations and promote trade. Treasury papers are released that show concern about Health Minister Tony Ryall‟s reallocation of $12.5M within the health budget Maori Party MP Rahui Katene‟s private member‟s bill on scrapping the GST on „healthy foods‟ is drawn from the ballot. Much discussion over the surrounding issues and its viability ensues. Corrections Minister Judith Collins announces a new prison in Wiri is to be built and operated under a private-public partnership Landcorp‟s bid for Crafar Farms is turned down by receivers KordaMentha leaving Chinese company Natural Dairy NZ‟s conditional purchase agreement waiting for approval or disapproval by the Overseas Investment Office. The Government cuts $12M from anti-smoking initiatives. Peter Goodfellow is re-elected to the National Party board and as party chairman. Hone Harawira calls Pete Bethune a hero, John Key calls him ungrateful for the support he had received. The government announces a plan to repeal or reform the „claim of right‟ defence that was successfully used in the Waihope Spy Base case. John Key announces his disappointment with the ARC‟s inability to reach a conclusion as to the fate of the sheds and the location of party central for the Rugby World Cup. Government announces a plan under which businesses paying more than $10,000 a year in ACC workplace levies would be eligible for a discount, or a penalty, of up to 50% based on their claims history over the previous three years. The Government first indicates and then backs down from a plan to allow mining on schedule 4 protected land. Police Commissioner Howard Broad looks into ways to give Police greater access to firearms after two officers are injured and a police dog shot killed in a routine visit. John Key announces tentative support for increasing access of firearms to police officers. John Key announces at least six boatloads of asylum seekers have considered voyages to New Zealand in the last 12 months. Tertiary Education Minister Steven Joyce looks into funding for tertiary institutions being linked to employment success of students following graduation Economic Development Minister Gerry Brownlee says at National‟s annual party conference that the mining industry is certain to grow, but must do so in a sensitive manner.
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Government announces a plan to give employers the right to immediately demand a medical certificate as proof of sickness or injury by removing “reasonable grounds” from the legislation. The employer would be required to pay for the medical certificate to counter abuse of the system. A diplomatic cable regarding an agreement reached between Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd for him to stand down is leaked to the media. Phil Goff claims this will permanently harm Australia-New Zealand diplomatic relations. With much debate around the issue of foreign investment in New Zealand, it is revealed that only one conditional residence permit has been awarded under the Government‟s Entrepreneur Plus scheme. The aim of this scheme is said to be to “provide a faster track to residence for migrants who can demonstrate they have been actively participating in business and contributing to New Zealand‟s economic development.” There is much public debate in the media over legalisation of euthanasia. Parliament votes out a member‟s bill from Labour MP Carol Beaumont to regulate loan sharks and cap the interest rates they charge. The Government announces a plan to extend the 90 trial period scheme to all businesses so all new employees would be covered by the scheme. It currently only applies to employers with fewer than 20 employees. Don Brash, chair of the 2025 Taskforce, in a speech suggests a new pension scheme as an attempt to alleviate the problem of the rapidly increasing proportion of the population who reach retiring age from next year. Police Minister Judith Collins says that people will soon need a firearms licence to purchase a modern high-powered air rifle. Transport Minister Steven Joyce announces a zero blood alcohol limit for recidivist and young drivers but says New Zealand-specific research over the next two years would look at the level of risk posed by drivers with a blood alcohol limit of between 0.05 and 0.08 (50mg- 80mg per 100ml of blood). Chris Carter writes and sends „anonymous‟ letter to the media saying the party cannot win next year‟s election with Phil Goff as leader and that his leadership was to be challenged from within the party. He was immediately expelled from the Labour caucus. Senior Labour MPs question Chris Carter‟s state of mind. Mr Carter has applied for two months‟ leave which means that any decision at the party‟s national council, such as stripping him of party membership, cannot be quickly made. Phil Goff has said he expects Carter to be expelled. Mr Carter has said he would stand as an independent MP if this were to happen. Corrections Minister Judith Collins expresses concerns at a knife being found hidden in the prison cell of double murderer Graeme Burton John Key indicates he may be open to a relationship with Winston Peters and NZ First if Mr Peters confirms whether he will be running at next year‟s election. Mr Peters unequivocally said “yes” he would be running but would not say which if any electorate seat he would contest. John Key accompanied by Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully visits Vanuatu to attend the 41st Pacific Island Forum. He is to announce development initiatives in the Pacific and discuss the continued suspension of Fiji. Hone Harawira says he would not be comfortable if one of his seven children came home with a Pakeha partner....John Key referred to Mr Harawira‟s comments as being ridiculous. The Government announced it will fly up to 8o relatives of the victims of the Mt Erebus crash to Antarctica this summer to mark the 30th anniversary of the crash.
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Detailed Poll Results – Question Wording
Likelihood to Vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”
NOTE: Those claiming they would be „quite likely‟ or „very likely‟ to vote have been included in the party support analysis.
Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.
One is for a political party and is called a party vote. The other is for your local M.P. and is called an electorate vote.”
Party Vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party. Which political party would you vote for?” IF DON‟T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”
Electorate Vote
“Now thinking about your other vote, the Electorate Vote for your Local M.P.. When you choose your local M.P., which party, if any, is this candidate likely to come from?” IF DON‟T KNOW “Which party, if any, are they most likely to come from?”
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Party Vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”
IF DON‟T KNOW –
“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”
13 – 17 10 – 14 22 – 26 31 July – 4 February April May August 2010 2010 2010 2010
Don’t Know 7% 7% 8% 7%
Refused 3% 3% 3% 2%
TOTAL 9%* 9%* 11% 9% Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
13 – 17 10 – 14 22 – 26 31 July – 4 February April May August 2010 2010 2010 2010
National 54% 54% 49% 49%
Labour 34% 33% 33% 35%
Green Party 4.7% 4.7% 7% 7%
ACT NZ 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 2.7%
The Maori Party 2.0% 2.1% 3.6% 2.3%
NZ First 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 2.3%
United Future NZ - 0.2% 0.5% 0.4%
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Alliance - - 0.1% 0.1%
Christian Heritage - - - 0.1%
The Libertarianz - - - 0.1%
Kiwi Party 0.1% 0.2% - -
Family Party 0.2% - - -
The Bill and Ben Party 0.1% 0.1% - -
Other 1.8% 2.4% 2.7% 0.6%
TOTAL 101%* 100% 99%* 100% Base: n=864 Probed Party Supporters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
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FutureNZ
United
NZFirst
MaoriParty
Labour
National Green
National
Labour Party VoteParty
Green Maori Party NZ First United
Future NZ
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0
%
10
20
30
40
50 60
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Electorate Vote
“Now thinking about your other vote, the Electorate Vote for your Local M.P. When you choose your local M.P., which party, if any, is this candidate likely to come from?”
IF DON‟T KNOW “Which party, if any, are they most likely to come from?”
13 – 17 10 – 14 22 – 26 31 July – 4 February April May August 2010 2010 2010 2010
Don’t Know 9% 11% 11% 12%
Refused 1% 2% 2% 1%
TOTAL 11%* 13% 13% 13% Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
13 – 17 10 – 14 22 – 26 31 July – 4 February April May August 2010 2010 2010 2010
National 50% 52% 48% 52%
Labour 36% 33% 34% 40%
The Maori Party 2.5% 2.0% 3.6% 2.5%
Green Party 3.8% 4.6% 4.5% 2.4%
ACT NZ 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1%
NZ First 1.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7%
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6%
United Future NZ 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Christian Heritage - - - 0.1%
Alliance 0.1% 0.2% - -
Kiwi Party - 0.1% - -
Other 3.9% 4.6% 6% 0.7%
TOTAL 101%* 100% 100% 100% Base: n=829 Probed Party Supporters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
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FutureNZ
United
ACT
MaoriParty
NZFirst
Green
Labour
National
Electorate VoteElectorate
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60 %
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Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current M.P.‟s of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”
IF NONE –
“Is there anyone who is not a current M.P. who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
13 – 17 10 – 14 22 – 26 31 July – 4 February 2010 April May August 2010 2010 2010
John Key 49% 48% 46% 45%
Phil Goff 8% 8% 6% 9%
Helen Clark 3% 3% 3% 3%
Winston Peters 2% 3% 2% 3%
Pita Sharples 0.9% 1% 0.6% 0.8%
Rodney Hide 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
Jim Anderton 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6%
Hone Harawira - 0.2% 0.5% 0.6%
Shane Jones - - - 0.6%
Tariana Turia 0.5% 1% 0.4% 0.5%
Metiria Turei 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
David Cunliffe - - - 0.4%
Bill English 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Annette King - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Peter Dunne 0.2% - 0.2% 0.3%
Michael Cullen - 0.2% 0.1% -
Russell Norman - - 0.1% -
Gerry Brownlee 0.1% 0.2% - -
Jeanette Fitzsimons - 0.2% - -
Roger Douglas 0.1% 0.1% - -
Other 9% 10% 12% 4%
Don‟t Know 22% 21% 22% 25%
None 3% 2% 4% 6%
Refused 0.4% 0.6% 2% 0.5%
TOTAL 100% 100% 101%* 101%* Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
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2010
2009
Winston Peters Winston
2008
Phil Goff Phil
2007
Preferred Prime Preferred Minister
2006
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JohnKey
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 %
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Economic Outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a worse state?”
13 – 17 10 – 14 22 – 26 31 July – 4 February April May August 2010 2010 2010 2010
Better 59% 65% 56% 55%
Same 18% 16% 18% 19%
Worse 23% 19% 26% 25%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 99%* Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
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Lowering of the Adult Drink Drive Limit
The adult drink drive limit is known as „point zero eight‟ and allows a man to drink about six standard drinks, or three quarters of a bottle of wine, over ninety minutes and a woman about four standard drinks, or half a bottle of wine. The government was considering almost halving that to point zero five but decided to keep the adult drink drive limit the same for the time being.
Do you think the government should have lowered the adult drink drive limit?
Total Eligible New Zealand Voters
Yes 64%
No 34%
Don’t know/unsure 2%
TOTAL 100% Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010.
The majority of New Zealand voters (64%) think the government should have lowered the adult drink drive limit.
Those more likely to think the government should have lowered the adult drink drive limit are:
Female (71%)
60 year old+ (71%)
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Extending the 90 Day Trial Law to Cover All Companies
Currently employment law allows a business to take on a new worker and then if it does not work out dismiss that worker within 90 days without the worker being able to take a personal grievance claim. Currently the scheme only applies to companies with fewer than twenty employees but now the government plans to extend the 90 day trial period to cover all companies and so all new workers could be subject to the scheme. Some people believe this places workers in a vulnerable position but the government claims it creates jobs because businesses will be more willing to take on a new worker.
Do you think the 90 day trial law should be extended to cover all companies every time someone starts a new job?
Total Eligible New Zealand Voters
Yes 60%
No 36%
Don’t know/unsure 5%
TOTAL 101%* Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010. *Total does not sum exactly due to rounding
Most New Zealanders (60%) think the 90 Trial Law should be extended to cover all companies.
Those more likely to believe this are:
Intending National voters (77%)
Those living in non-urban areas (68%)
Those less likely to believe this are:
Intending Labour voters (42%)
Intending Greens voters (44%)
Female (56%)
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Whether Chris Carter Should Resign
Labour MP Chris Carter has been suspended from Labour‟s Parliamentary team for undermining his leader Phil Goff. As MP for the Auckland seat of Te Atatu he could remain as an independent MP even if he no longer is a member of the Labour Party.
Do you think Chris Carter should resign from Parliament altogether?
Total Eligible New Zealand Voters
Yes 58%
No 33%
Don’t know/unsure 9%
TOTAL 100% Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010.
Just over half of New Zealanders think Chris Carter should resign from Parliament (58%).
Those more likely to think Chris Carter should resign from Parliament are:
55 year old + (69%)
No significant difference between intending Labour voters (58%) and intending National voters (62%)
While intending Green Party voters were significantly less likely to think Chris Carter should resign (44%)
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Phil Goff as an Election Winner
Do you think Labour leader Phil Goff can win the next election?
Total Eligible New Zealand Voters
Yes 24%
No 65%
Don’t know/unsure 11%
TOTAL 100% Base: n=1,011 Eligible New Zealand Voters, 31 July – 4 August, 2010.
Most New Zealanders (65%) believe that Labour leader Phil Goff can not win the next election.
Those more likely believe that Phil Goff can not win the next election are:
Intending National voters (89%)
High household income earners over $100,000+ (79%)
Male (72%)
Those aged 35 years and over (70%)
Intending Labour voters views are polarised with 47% believing Phil Goff can win the next election; while 39% believe he can‟t
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Parliamentary Seat Entitlement
The following have been calculated using the St Laguë method.
The next table assumes that each of United Future New Zealand, ACT and Progressive Coalition win one electorate seat and the Maori Party wins 5 electorate seats
* Indicates one (or more) overhang seats
31 July – 4 August 2010
National 61
Labour 44
Green Party 9
Maori Party 5*
ACT 3
United Future NZ 1*
Jim Anderton’s Progressive Party 1*
NZ First 0
TOTAL 124
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Method Used To Calculate Parliamentary Seat Entitlement
The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for each party into the number of seats they get in parliament.
It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral Commission.
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