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ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll July 31-August 4, 2010

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ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll July 31-August 4, 2010 - © Colmar Brunton Confidential New Zealand’s ‘most respected’ market research company ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll July 31-August 4, 2010 PREPARED FOR ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll ATTENTION Television New Zealand ISSUE DATE 08/08/10 CONTACT[S] (09) 919 9200 Colmar Brunton Confidential ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll Poll Method Summary RELEASED: Sunday 8th August, 2010 POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from July 31st – August 4th, 2010 SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,011 eligible voters SAMPLE SELECTION: Random nationwide selection using a type of stratified sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of people in urban and rural areas. SAMPLE ERROR: Based on a total sample of 1000 Eligible Voters, the maximum sampling error estimated is plus or minus 3.1%, expressed at the 95% confidence level. METHOD: Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). WEIGHTING: The data has been weighted to Department of Statistics Population Estimates to ensure it is representative of the population in terms of age, gender, household size and ethnic origin. REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 5% which are reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1% which are reported to 1 decimal place. METHODOLOGY The party vote question has been asked unprompted as at February 1997. NOTE: The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the outcome of an election. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be misleading to report otherwise. Publication or reproduction of the results of this poll must be acknowledged as the “ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll”. Colmar Brunton Page | 1 Summary of Poll Results PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE National 49% Steady from 22nd-26th May 2010 Labour 35% Up 2% Green Party 7% Steady ACT NZ 3% Up 1% The Maori Party 2% Down 2% NZ First 2% Up 1% PARTY SUPPORT – ELECTORATE VOTE National 52% Up 4% from 22nd-26th May 2010 Labour 40% Up 6% The Maori Party 3% Down 1% Green Party 2% Down 3% ACT NZ 1% Down 1% NZ First 1% Steady UNDECIDED VOTERS Party Vote 9% Down 2% from 22nd-26th May 2010 Electorate Vote 13% Steady from 22nd-26th May 2010 Colmar Brunton Page | 2 Summary of Poll Results PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER Key 45% Down 1% from 22nd-26th May 2010 Goff 9% Up 3% Peters 3% Up 1% ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Optimism 55% Down 1% from 22nd-26th May 2010 Pessimism 25% Down 1% Colmar Brunton Page | 3 Key Political Events: July 2nd – August 4th 2010 Finance Minister Bill English announces the Corrections Department is to become the largest government department within a few years in terms of staff. Labour MP Steve Chadwick proposes a new law to legalise abortion on request for women up to 24 weeks into pregnancy. The Auckland, Canterbury and Southland Primary Principals Associations issue recommendations that their principals withdraw their attendance at national standards training in a standoff between schools and the Ministry of Education. John Key dampens speculation that MPs are bound for a 10% pay rise Labour MP Raymond Huo faces strong criticism for defending Chinese rule over Tibet on a Labour Party website. Figures that show foreigners have bought into more than 150,000 hectares of NZ farm land in the past 5 years are released. John Key says he opposes the sale of large tracts of productive land to overseas investors. John Key visits Vietnam to mark the 35th anniversary of diplomatic relations and promote trade. Treasury papers are released that show concern about Health Minister Tony Ryall‟s reallocation of $12.5M within the health budget Maori Party MP Rahui Katene‟s private member‟s bill on scrapping the GST on „healthy foods‟ is drawn from the ballot. Much discussion over the surrounding issues and its viability ensues. Corrections Minister Judith Collins announces a new prison in Wiri is to be built and operated under a private-public partnership Landcorp‟s bid for Crafar Farms is turned down by receivers KordaMentha leaving Chinese company Natural Dairy NZ‟s conditional purchase agreement waiting for approval or disapproval by the Overseas Investment Office. The Government cuts $12M from anti-smoking initiatives. Peter Goodfellow is re-elected to the National Party board and as party chairman. Hone Harawira calls Pete Bethune a hero, John Key calls him ungrateful for the support he had received. The government announces a plan to repeal or reform the „claim of right‟ defence that was successfully used in the Waihope Spy Base case. John Key announces his disappointment with the ARC‟s inability to reach a conclusion as to the fate of the sheds and the location of party central for the Rugby World Cup. Government announces a plan under which businesses paying more than $10,000 a year in ACC workplace levies would be eligible for a discount, or a penalty, of up to 50% based on their claims history over the previous three years. The Government first indicates and then backs down from a plan to allow mining on schedule 4 protected land. Police Commissioner Howard Broad looks into ways to give Police greater access to firearms after two officers are injured and a police dog shot killed in a routine visit. John Key announces tentative support for increasing access of firearms to police officers. John Key announces at least six boatloads of asylum seekers have considered voyages to New Zealand in the last 12 months. Tertiary Education Minister Steven Joyce looks into funding for tertiary institutions being linked to employment success of students following graduation Economic Development Minister Gerry Brownlee says at National‟s annual party conference that the mining industry is certain to grow, but must do so in a sensitive manner. Colmar Brunton Page | 4 Government announces a plan to give employers the right to immediately demand a medical certificate as proof of sickness or injury by removing “reasonable grounds” from the legislation. The employer would be required to pay for the medical certificate to counter abuse of the system. A diplomatic cable regarding an agreement reached between Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd for him to stand down is leaked to the media. Phil Goff claims this will permanently harm Australia-New Zealand diplomatic relations. With much debate around the issue of foreign investment in New Zealand, it is revealed that only one conditional residence permit has been awarded under the Government‟s Entrepreneur Plus scheme. The aim of this scheme is said to be to “provide a faster track to residence for migrants who can demonstrate they have been actively participating in business and contributing to New Zealand‟s economic development.” There is much public debate in the media over legalisation of euthanasia. Parliament votes out a member‟s bill from Labour MP Carol Beaumont to regulate loan sharks and cap the interest rates they charge. The Government announces a plan to extend the 90 trial period scheme to all businesses so all new employees would be covered by the scheme. It currently only applies to employers with fewer than 20 employees. Don Brash, chair of the 2025 Taskforce, in a speech suggests a new pension scheme as an attempt to alleviate the problem of the rapidly increasing proportion of the population who reach retiring age from next year. Police Minister Judith Collins says that people will soon need a firearms licence to purchase a modern high-powered air rifle. Transport Minister Steven Joyce announces a zero blood alcohol limit for recidivist and young drivers but says New Zealand-specific research over the next two years would look at the level of risk posed by drivers with a blood alcohol limit of between 0.05 and 0.08 (50mg- 80mg per 100ml of blood). Chris Carter writes and sends „anonymous‟ letter to the media saying the party cannot win next year‟s election with Phil Goff as leader and that his leadership was to be challenged from within the party. He was immediately expelled from the Labour caucus. Senior Labour MPs question Chris Carter‟s state of mind. Mr Carter has applied for two months‟ leave which means that any decision at the party‟s national council, such as stripping him of party membership, cannot be quickly made. Phil Goff has said he expects Carter to be expelled. Mr Carter has said he would stand as an independent MP if this were to happen. Corrections Minister Judith Collins expresses concerns at a knife being found hidden in the prison cell of double murderer Graeme Burton John Key indicates he may be open to a relationship with Winston Peters and NZ First if Mr Peters confirms whether he will be running at next year‟s election. Mr Peters unequivocally said “yes” he would be running but would not say which if any electorate seat he would contest. John Key accompanied by Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully visits Vanuatu to attend the 41st Pacific Island Forum. He is to announce development initiatives in the Pacific and discuss the continued suspension of Fiji. Hone Harawira says he would not be comfortable if one of his seven children came home with a Pakeha partner....John Key referred to Mr Harawira‟s comments as being ridiculous. The Government announced it will fly up to 8o relatives of the victims of the Mt Erebus crash to Antarctica this summer to mark the 30th anniversary of the crash.
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