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Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 14 Jan 2021 08:30 GMT Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Great Portland Estates Improved rent collection and solid Company Events lettings performance 14-Jan Hays; Q221 Trading Update Taylor Wimpey; Q4 Trading Update Taylor Wimpey A clear focus on the medium-term Tesco; Q321 Trading Update Whitbread; Interim results Bakkavor Group Resilient FY20 performance leading to a 21-Jan J D Wetherspoon; Q221 Trading Update c.13% upgrade Hilton Food Group Strong FY20 trading update leading to mid-single digit upgrades 888 Holdings Post close statement outlines that positive momentum continues; another FY20 upgrade UK Economic View House prices remain red-hot, but hangover is now in sight after recent boom Building Materials Geberit - Strong Q420 beat gives encouraging read for broader sector Economic Events Ireland Irish Banks November credit stats show momentum from 14-Jan CPI Dec20 Q3 continued 15-Jan Trade Balance Nov20 United Kingdom 15-Jan Construction Output Nov20 Trade Balance Nov20 Industrial Production Nov20 Manufacturing Production Nov20 20-Jan CPI Dec20 PPI Dec20 Retail Price Index Dec20 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Great Portland Estates Improved rent collection and solid lettings performance Great Portland Estates (GPOR:LN) issued a trading update this morning covering the three Recommendation: Hold months to the end of December. The update shows that GPOR collected 69% of December Closing Price: £6.39 rent collected to date (or 77% when including amounts covered by rent deposits). This is a stronger collection rate that previous quarters in 2020 and compares to 63% in the March Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 quarter, 58% in the June quarter, and 65% in the September quarter. Following similar [email protected] patterns across the London market, rent collection was highest for office units at 84% and weaker for retail/leisure sectors at 35%. GPOR also updated on the collection of arrears noting that 85% of March, June and September rent is now collected when including drawn deposits or 75% excluding deposits. Elsewhere, GPOR notes that leasing trends have remained positive, despite the challenges in the wider market, with £2.4m of new annual rent signed in quarter. Encouragingly market lettings are noted as being in line with pre-COVID impacted March 2020 ERVs. GPOR’s balance sheet also sees the strong positioning continue, despite some value falls in the market, with LTV amongst the lowest in the REIT sector at 18.2% and considerable financial capacity of £441m to explore opportunities in the London market. This is a solid update from GPOR. It has continued to let space at healthy ERVs, despite the moribund wider occupier market, and rent collection trends have improved. Furthermore, the defensive balance sheet will provide firepower to take advantage of opportunities as London emerges from the COVID (and Brexit) confidence hits. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 2 14 Jan. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Taylor Wimpey A clear focus on the medium-term Taylor Wimpey released a solid trading update this morning. For us the key points are: i) Recommendation: Buy FY20 numbers expected to be line with market expectations; ii) Orderbook remains elevated Closing Price: £1.61 with the group over 50% forward sold and the cancellation rate has normalised; and iii) The focus on the medium-term and confidence in the delivery of 21-22% margins. Shane Carberry +353-1-6419118 [email protected] Taylor Wimpey completed 9.6k units (-39% yoy), in line with our expectations. Pricing was 7% ahead yoy but this was “mostly” driven by mix. From an operating profit perspective, it expects 2020 to be line with consensus which stands at £293m (incl JV profits). We are at £296m and we are unlikely to move. The orderbook remains elevated versus historic levels with the value at £2.7m (+23% yoy) and units at 10.7k (10% yoy) leaving the group 50% forward sold for 2021. From a sequential perspective, this has run down from the £3bn / 11.5k units reported on November 1st, a function primarily of the high level of completions late in 2020. Cancellations had been a concern in previous updates with the rate at 20% in 2020 versus 15% in 2019, however, the cancellation rate normalised in Q4 at 16% which is the same as the prior year. It is also comforting to see that Taylor Wimpey is taking a strong level of reservations under the new help to buy scheme with 650 reservations reported under the scheme for delivery in Q2. Build cost inflation has remained low versus recent years and the group are not experiencing any “significant” supply chain issues as a result of Brexit. It is evident throughout the statement that the medium term is a key focus for management. It is expecting operating margins can trend towards 21-22% over that period. For context the operating margin was 19.6% in 2019. Management also expect that the land acquisitions it has made following the June equity raise (£1.3bn gross land purchases have been authorised since) will start to contribute to volume growth above and beyond normal levels (15.5k units in 2019) in 2023 onwards. Overall, we believe it is a solid update from Taylor Wimpey. We do not intend on moving numbers materially but the focus on the medium may provide some food for thought on 2023 and beyond. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 3 14 Jan. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Bakkavor Group Resilient FY20 performance leading to a c.13% upgrade Bakkavor has released an extremely encouraging trading update for the 52 weeks ending 28 Recommendation: Buy December 2020. From a top line perspective, Bakkavor notes that Group revenues continued Closing Price: £0.82 to recover over the course of H2'20 (LFL revenues for FY20 -4.9%, H1 -5.2%, H2, -4.6%), with the US being a standout performer. With cost mitigation measures together with an Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 improving trend in volumes during the second half, management expect to deliver adj. [email protected] EBITDA (pre IFRS 16) of £138m (in line with FY19) comfortably ahead of our forecast for £122m. The UK delivered FY20 LFL revenue declines of -5.3% implying a H2 outcome of -6.1%. This is a touch ahead of forecast despite the impact of further restrictions in the final quarter. Within the International division (c.12% of Group revenues) the US business delivered a strong performance with 12.7% LFL growth in the year, with profitable growth achieved in H2. This helped offset a weaker performance in China which has been impacted more severely by the pandemic (revenues -21.6%). Given the challenging backdrop facing the business, we consider this a reassuring update from Bakkavor. The improving trends in H2 together with good cost control is leading to a c.13% upgrade to our forecasts. It is also worth noting that a strong focus on cash has enabled the business to operate with c.£200m of headroom against debt facilities of £537.5m. Home… Hilton Food Group Strong FY20 trading update leading to mid-single digit upgrades Hilton Food Group provided a strong FY20 trading update this morning indicating that the Recommendation: Buy outcome for the year was ahead of expectations. The business delivered strong sales and Closing Price: £11.30 volume growth over the year driven by continued business expansion, predominantly in Australia, as well as the shift to at-home consumption due to COVID-19. The trading outlook Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 for the Group remains positive, with growth prospects underpinned by the already [email protected] announced expansion plans in Belgium and New Zealand, both of which are on track, and further expansion opportunities into adjacent categories across existing markets. In addition, the Group continues to explore other opportunities to grow the business in both domestic and overseas markets. This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Overall, this is another strong update this morning from Hilton. We currently forecast c.15% and 11% EBIT growth in FY20 and FY21 respectively though following today’s update we expect to upgrade estimates by mid-single digits. Home… Page 4 14 Jan. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap 888 Holdings Post close statement outlines that positive momentum continues; another FY20 upgrade 888 has this morning released a brief trading update in which it states that it continued to Recommendation: Buy deliver a strong performance to the end of the year. This update comes in advance of its sell Closing Price: £3.03 side webinar event later today on product innovation. The statement this morning notes that revenue and active customer numbers in the month of December were all-time monthly Gavin Kelleher +353-1-641 0423 records. The group had updated the market with a very positive trading update on December [email protected] 2 (we upgraded FY20 EBITDA by >50%).