Pre-industrial Forest Condition Report for the Pic River and Big Pic Forests Version 1.1 12-16-2016 December 2016 Prepared by: Rob Arnup Consulting 127 Cedar Street N. Timmins, Ontario P4N 6J4 For: AV Terrace Bay Inc. 34 Cumberland Street N., Thunder Bay, ON P7A 4L3 Table of Contents Section Page 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Sources of Information ......................................................................................................................... 2 3 Description of the Pic River and Big Pic Forests ................................................................................. 2 3.1 Big Pic Forest .............................................................................................................................. 2 3.2 Pic River Forest ........................................................................................................................... 4 3.3 Surficial Geology, Soils, and Climate ......................................................................................... 4 4 History of Forestry in the Big Pic Forest ............................................................................................. 6 4.1 History of Logging and the Development of Access on the Big Pic Forest ................................ 7 4.2 Notes on the River Drive on the Big Pic Forest ........................................................................ 14 4.3 Development of the Silviculture Program on the Big Pic ......................................................... 15 5 History of Forestry in the Pic River Forest ........................................................................................ 17 5.1 History of Forestry on the Black River Forest........................................................................... 17 5.2 Silviculture Program on the Black River Forest ........................................................................ 19 5.3 History of the Pic River-Ojibway Forest ................................................................................... 20 5.3.1 Little Pic Concession ........................................................................................................ 20 5.3.2 Steel River Crown Management Unit (SRCMU) ............................................................. 21 6 A Brief Chronology of Important Historical Events .......................................................................... 24 7 Fire Information ................................................................................................................................. 26 7.1 Fire Records 1914-1929 ............................................................................................................ 26 7.2 Fire Records - 1930 to Present .................................................................................................. 28 7.3 Overview of Fire History on the Pic River and Big Pic Forests ................................................ 30 7.4 Richard Fry’s 1997 Study of Pre-settlement Forest Conditions ................................................ 31 7.4.1 Species Composition ......................................................................................................... 32 7.4.2 Age Class Distribution ...................................................................................................... 35 7.4.3 Old Growth ....................................................................................................................... 37 7.4.4 Spatial Distribution of Patch Sizes ................................................................................... 37 7.5 Fire Disturbance Patch Level Analyses ..................................................................................... 38 7.5.1 What are residuals? Are they described and defined consistently? .................................. 39 7.5.2 How much is left behind? Abundance and variability of residuals. ................................. 39 7.5.3 What are the spatial biases and patterns in occurrence and abundance of residuals? ....... 40 7.5.4 What happens to residuals? Temporal changes during the first decade and after............. 40 7.5.5 Insular residual patches ..................................................................................................... 41 7.5.6 Peninsular residual patches ............................................................................................... 41 7.6 Background Information on Fire Cycles and Their Calculation................................................ 42 7.7 Fire Cycles and Forest Management Planning .......................................................................... 49 7.7.1 Fire Size Distribution ........................................................................................................ 50 7.7.2 Number of Fires ................................................................................................................ 51 7.7.3 Fire Size at 80th Percentile Re 260 ha Size Class............................................................. 51 7.8 The BFOLDS Model ................................................................................................................. 52 7.9 Possible Changes to the Forest Resulting from Climate Change .............................................. 53 8 Background Information on Insects, Diseases, and Windthrow ........................................................ 54 8.1 Insect Infestations on the Pic River and Big Pic Forests ........................................................... 54 8.2 Forest Insects and the Effects of Infestations ............................................................................ 55 8.2.1 Spruce Budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) ...................................................... 55 8.2.2 Jack Pine Budworm (Choristoneura pinus Freeman) ....................................................... 63 8.2.3 Forest Tent Caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hbn.) ........................................................ 63 i 8.2.4 Larch Sawfly (Pristiphora erichsonii Hartig) ................................................................... 67 8.3 Effects of Insect Defoliation ...................................................................................................... 68 8.4 Possible Impacts of Climate Change ......................................................................................... 70 8.5 Wind and Windthrow Effects .................................................................................................... 70 8.6 Recorded Windstorms, Blowdown and Frost Events on the Pic River and Big Pic Forests ..... 73 8.7 Forest Diseases and Their Effects ............................................................................................. 74 8.8 Tree Diseases on the Pic River and Big Pic Forests .................................................................. 75 9 Documenting the Historical Ranges for Red Pine and White Pine, and the Locations and Status of Specific Occurrences .................................................................................................................................. 75 9.1 Ecological Characteristics of Red and White Pine Related to their Potential Ranges ............... 76 9.2 Post-glacial Changes in Pine Distribution ................................................................................. 76 9.3 Pine Harvesting History............................................................................................................. 77 9.4 Summary of Historical Range Mapping Efforts ........................................................................ 77 9.5 Ranges Maps and Notes for Other Species................................................................................ 79 10 Historical Forest Resources Inventories ............................................................................................. 83 10.1 Historical Inventory Summaries ................................................................................................ 85 10.2 The Forest Resources of Ontario 1930 ...................................................................................... 85 10.3 Comparison of Current FRI for the Pic River and Big Pic Forests with Historical Inventories, 1949 to 1996 ........................................................................................................................................... 88 10.4 Big Pic Forest ............................................................................................................................ 89 10.5 Black River Forest ..................................................................................................................... 98 10.6 Pic River Forest – Steel River CMU ....................................................................................... 100 10.7 Pic River Forest – Little Pic Concession, Ontario Paper Company ........................................ 103 11 Trends in Species Composition and Age Class Distribution ........................................................... 106 11.1 Historical versus Modern Species Composition Trends - Ontario Land Surveyor Records ... 106 11.1.1 Results of the Ontario Land Survey Analysis for Ecoregion 3E .................................... 109 11.2 Age Class Distribution and Old Growth .................................................................................