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Argentina's Economic Crisis: an “Absence of Capitalism”

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Argentina's Economic Crisis: an “Absence of Capitalism” No. 1432 April 19, 2001 ARGENTINA’S ECONOMIC CRISIS: AN “ABSENCE OF CAPITALISM” ANA I. EIRAS AND BRETT D. SCHAEFER As U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Paul O’Neill and stability. Specific policies that the Administra- explained to The Financial Times in February, the tion should encourage Argentina to implement key factor underlying recent financial crises is not include: a failure of capitalism, but an “absence of capital- Produced by the Center for International ism.” Argentina provides a cogent example; its lack •Adopting the U.S. Trade and Economics (CITE) of economic freedom—the necessary environment dollar as its official Published by for capitalism to work effectively—resulted in currency. Specula- The Heritage Foundation continual economic decline and, ultimately, the 214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E. tion about the sustain- Washington, D.C. financial crisis that erupted in November 2000. ability of Argentina’s 20002–4999 currency board helped (202) 546-4400 Poor economic policies and political instability http://www.heritage.org contributed to Argentina’s decline from its note- increase interest rate worthy position as the world’s 10th wealthiest premiums on debt. nation in 1913 to the world’s 36th wealthiest in The best way for 1998. Argentina is the only wealthy country to Argentina to address the interest rate experience so great a reversal in recent history, This paper, in its entirety, can be despite the involvement of the International premium resulting found at: www.heritage.org/library/ Monetary Fund (IMF). Indeed, the IMF’s loans and from currency risk backgrounder/bg1432.html guidance have aggravated, not alleviated, Argen- would be to adopt the tina’s problems. After more than nine bailouts and U.S. dollar as its own currency. This would extensions of IMF loans since 1983, Argentina eliminate the risk stemming from the peso– once again faces a financial crisis, with fewer dollar exchange rate and lead to lower interest prospects for stimulating effective economic rates on the country’s debt, which is what hap- growth in the future. pened in El Salvador and Panama after they adopted the dollar. Instead of supporting a continuation of Argen- tina’s policies that feed the current 33-month-long •Reduce spending and taxes. To spur eco- recession, the Bush Administration should encour- nomic growth, Argentina needs to bolster pro- age Argentina to adopt policies that will increase ductive behavior by lowering taxes to increase economic freedom and lead to long-term growth No. 1432 April 19, 2001 the incentive to work, save, and invest. To punish corruption more aggressively, insulate lower taxes without aggravating the fiscal the judiciary from political pressure through deficit, it also needs to slash government whistle-blower protections, and increase stan- expenditures. A plan introduced by the Minis- dards for those employed in law enforcement. ter of Economy includes a cut in expenditures; but instead of lowering taxes, it would shift the Argentina should not look on these reforms tax burden from businesses to international as options. Unless the country resumes strong investors, imposing new costs without allow- economic growth soon, it will likely default on its ing the beneficial stimulus associated with an debt and see its access to international capital overall reduction in taxes. Restoring economic markets crippled. growth will require much deeper reductions in Restoring economic stability and promoting government expenditures and more extensive growth for Argentina will benefit the United States tax cuts. as well as the Argentine people. To help avert another crisis in Argentina, the Bush Administra- •Foster further deregulation. President tion should encourage Argentina to end its cyclical Fernando de la Rúa succeeded in getting a dependence on IMF loans and make the reforms labor reform bill passed by Argentina’s Senate necessary to stimulate growth. Economic growth and lower house. Argentina should build on would enable the government to service its debt this progress by scaling back regulations gov- and—if expenditures are also cut—end its reliance erning, for example, the ability of employers to on IMF loans. lay off employees. The government also needs to scale back the wages and numbers of pub- It is just as imperative, however, that the role lic-sector employees. This is particularly true played by international financial institutions in in the provinces, where many public-sector the global economy be restricted. The Bush workers do not contribute to production and Administration should seek to implement the are a drain on public resources. recommendations of the congressionally man- dated International Financial Institutions Advisory •Encourage free trade. Argentina should Commission, chaired by Allan H. Meltzer of expand its export markets and diversify its Carnegie Mellon University, in order to establish a export base by signing agreements with other solid framework for reforming the IMF and World nations that are receptive to unrestricted trade. Bank. The reforms should maximize the organiza- Considering the linking of the peso and the tions’ effectiveness, increase accountability for dollar, a free trade agreement between the their lending decisions, and limit their harmful United States and Argentina would be particu- influence in the global market. larly beneficial by providing greater stability to Argentine exporters. Argentina will need to Future crises will be less likely in an environ- open its market in order to facilitate trade talks ment that promotes the efficiencies and benefits with the United States. If necessary, it should of open markets. Unless the Administration withdraw from the Mercosur trading bloc; if it addresses the “absence of capitalism” that afflicts wishes to remain a political ally of Mercosur as economies around the world by taking this Chile has done, it could do so. approach, economic crises will become more frequent and more severe. •Strengthen the rule of law. The vulnerability of the judiciary to bribery and political —Ana I. Eiras is an Economic Policy Analyst for influence has undermined public confidence Latin America and Brett D. Schaefer is Jay Kingham to the extent that ordinary Argentines do not Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs in the use the legal system and businesses restrain Center for International Trade and Economics at The investments. The Argentine government must Heritage Foundation. No. 1432 April 19, 2001 ARGENTINA’S ECONOMIC CRISIS: AN “ABSENCE OF CAPITALISM” ANA I. EIRAS AND BRETT D. SCHAEFER1 As U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Paul O’Neill crisis, with fewer prospects for stimulating effec- explained to The Financial Times in February, the tive economic growth in the future. key factor underlying recent financial crises is not The Bush Administration should encourage a failure of capitalism but an “absence of capital- 2 Argentina to reform its economy in a manner that ism.” Argentina provides a cogent example; increases economic freedom. To help countries the lack of economic freedom— the necessary like Argentina reduce environment for capitalism to work effectively— the severity and Produced by the resulted in continual economic decline and, Center for International frequency of financial Trade and Economics (CITE) ultimately, the financial crisis that erupted in crises in the future, November 2000. the Administration Published by Poor economic policies and political instability also should promote The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E. contributed to Argentina’s decline from its note- reforms in the lending Washington, D.C. worthy position as the world’s 10th wealthiest practices and advice of 20002–4999 (202) 546-4400 nation in 1913 to the world’s 36th wealthiest in the IMF and other http://www.heritage.org 1998.3 Argentina is the only wealthy country to international financial experience so great a reversal in recent history, institutions so that despite the involvement of the International their efforts will result Monetary Fund (IMF). Indeed, the IMF’s loans in open economies and guidance have aggravated, not alleviated, and less reliance on This paper, in its entirety, can be Argentina’s problems. After more than nine bail- loans from interna- found at: www.heritage.org/library/ outs and extensions of IMF loans since 1983, tional financial backgrounder/bg1432.html Argentina is once again on the verge of a financial institutions. 1. The authors would like to thank Anthony Kim and Eddie Colindres, research interns at The Heritage Foundation, for their assistance with this paper. 2. Gerard Baker and Stephen Fidler, “O’Neill’s World,” The Financial Times, February 15, 2001, at http//www.FT.com. 3. Data for 1913 from Martin Wolf, “Argentina’s Riches to Rags Tale,” The Financial Times, March 21, 2001; data from 1998 calculated from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2000 on CD–ROM. No. 1432 April 19, 2001 ARGENTINA’S STORY: ECONOMIC (outlined below) gave an immediate boost to the POLICIES MATTER economy and ushered in a period of prosperity with the promise of change. Argentina has come a long way since its military government yielded to democracy in 1983. Presi- Menem’s second term, however, met with dent Raúl Alfonsín successfully consolidated the disappointment; the economy’s decline exposed government; brought issues like human rights the limited nature of the reforms and the govern- back to the public debate; and made the case for ment’s failure to open the market completely. Now trade liberalization,
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