“Don't Borrow from Me Argentina” the Aftermath of the Largest Sovereign
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International Bond Markets
4/15/2021 International Bond Markets (for private use, not to be posted/shared online) • Last Class • International Equity Markets - Differences - Investments Vehicles: Dual Listings (ADR), International ETFs - Valuation Methods (DDM, Discounting Free CFs, Multiples) • International Diversification pays • Returns in International Equity Markets - Huge dispersion in ERP across markets. Not easy to explain with existing models (CAPM, Fama-French Factors, etc.) - Many proposed factors to explain ERPs. 1 4/15/2021 • This Class • International Bond Markets ⋄ Organization and Issuing Techniques ⋄ Different Instruments ⋄ Valuation ⋄ Examples • CASE 6: Brady Bonds (due next Thursday, April 22) Group: Dixit, Erick International Bond Markets The bond market (debt, credit, or fixed income market) is the financial market where participants buy and sell debt securities, usually bonds. Size of the world bond market (’20 debt outstanding): USD 128 trillion. - Governments and International Organizations: USD 87 trillion (68%). - U.S. bond market debt: USD 49.8 trillion (38%). Organization - Decentralized, OTC market, with brokers and dealers. - Small issues may be traded in exchanges. - Daily trading volume in the U.S.: USD 822 billion - Government debt dominates the market. - Used to indicate the shape of the yield curve. 2 4/15/2021 • Evolution of Global Bond Market: Huge increase in issuance in 2020 (pandemic & very low interest rates) • Evolution of Global Bond Market EM issues have significantly increased over the past 20 year. EM play a significant role. 3 4/15/2021 • U.S. Bond Market Dominated by Government & Corporate Debt, & MBS. • Typical Bond Market: Canada Dominated by government issues. 4 4/15/2021 • The world bond market is divided into three segments: - Domestic bonds: Issued locally by a domestic borrower. -
The Investment Case for Emerging Market Debt
30 www.fssuper.com.au Investment Volume 04 Issue 03 | 2012 Yoel Prasetyo, Russell Investments Maniranjan Kumar, Russell Investments Yoel Prasetyo is a senior fixed income researcher Maniranjan Kumar is a hedge funds portfolio analyst for Russell Investment, where he conducts manager with Russell Investments. Maniranjan is responsible research, mainly in the Broad U.S. fixed income, for assisting senior portfolio manager with daily emerging market debt, currency strategy, and absolute responsibilities, including trade settlement, portfolio return fixed income strategies for Russell’ multi- pricing, fund reconciliation, and liquidity monitoring, manager product suite and consulting client solutions. taking into consideration portfolio weightings and specific goals. He also helps in selection of investments, construction and optimization of portfolios. THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR EMERGING MARKET DEBT Maniranjan Kumar and Yoel Prasetyo proved external debt positions, greater policy autonomy and the more flexible foreign exchange regimes of the constituent economies n 1973, a global oil crisis reversed the traditional flow of have all contributed to the maturing of the emerging market debt capital as oil exporting nations began to accumulate vast (“EMD”) asset class. wealth. Toward the end of the 1970s, their newfound We believe these factors, along with positive supply and demand wealth gave some of these emerging market countries factors and the secular trend of improvements, make emerging the ability to borrow. During the initial loan years, the market debt appealing as a long-term strategic asset class. borrowings stayed on banks’ balance sheets. But after a series of sovereign defaults by many contemporary Rationale for investing in emerging market debt Iemerging market countries, a debt crisis began in 1982. -
Argentina Connected
AFP Argentina connected The Government of Argentina recognizes the importance training to public-school students, extending connectivity to re- of broadband for social and economic development, and mote areas, and establishing public access ICT centres. last year launched a major plan to increase broadband The strategic orientations of Argentina Conectada are digital connectivity for individuals, businesses, educational in- inclusion; optimizing use of the radio-frequency spectrum; devel- stitutions and government offi ces across the nation. oping universal service; national production and creation of em- ployment in the telecommunication sector; training and research in telecommunication technologies; infrastructure and connectiv- ity; and capacity building. Developments in broadband In order to give effect to the plan, the government has de- and digital television clared the development, implementation and operation of the Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner pre- federal fi bre-optic network entrusted to the Empresa Argentina sented the country’s National Telecommunication Plan Argentina de Soluciones Satelitales SA (AR-SAT), a government-owned cor- Conectada (Argentina Connected) on 18 October 2010. The plan poration, to be a public interest project. combines under a single connectivity initiative several other ef- President Cristina Fernández says with great pride, “The Plan forts already under way, the main thrust of which is public in- ‘Argentina Connected’ means above all the democratization of vestment for the deployment -
Debt Financing Rollercoaster Latin American and Caribbean Access to International Bond Markets Since the Debt Crisis, 1982-2012
Imagen abstracta que sugiere alzas y bajas a modo de montaña rusa y a la vez gráfico de mercado en un contexto complejo y variable. Debt financing rollercoaster Latin American and Caribbean access to international bond markets since the debt crisis, 1982-2012 Inés Bustillo Helvia Velloso Debt financing rollercoaster Latin American and Caribbean access to international bond markets since the debt crisis, 1982-2012 Inés Bustillo Helvia Velloso Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Santiago, Chile, September 2013 Libros de la CEPAL 119 Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Inés Bustillo Chief, ECLAC office in Washington, D.C. Ricardo Pérez Chief, Documents and Publications Division This document was prepared by Inés Bustillo, Chief, and Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) office in Washington, D.C. The authors first started to monitor the access of Latin America and Caribbean countries to international bond markets in 1998, at the suggestion of José Antonio Ocampo, then Executive Secretary of ECLAC. The authors are very grateful for his support and insightful comments throughout the many years of work on the topic. They are also thankful to participants in the conference “The debt crisis 30 years later”, organized by ECLAC, the Andean Development Corporation (CAF), the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and the Ibero-American Secretariat (SEGIB), held at at the Commission’s subregional headquarters in Mexico, on 18-19 February 2013, for the discussions and feedback that helped to enhance the work presented in this book. -
Risk of Default in Latin American Brady Bonds
Risk of Default in Latin American Brady Bonds by I.Blauer and P.Wilmott (Oxford University and Imperial College, London)(LINK:www.wilmott.com) This draft: December 1997 For communication: Paul Wilmott Mathematical Institute 24-29 St Giles Oxford OX1 3LB UK 44 (0) 1483 532647 (tel/fax) 44 (0) 802 898092 (mobile) [email protected] Abstract The 1989 Brady Plan, named after the former US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, was the restructuring and reduction of several emerging countries’ external debt into bonds with US Treasury bonds as collateral. So far no country has ever defaulted payments, yet the market value of these bonds is usually significantly lower than equivalent ‘risk-free’ bonds. Mexico was the first country to issue Brady bonds, in February 1990, and there soon followed other Latin American, Eastern European and Asian countries. In this paper, we describe a stochastic model for the instantaneous risk of default, applicable to many fixed-income instruments and Brady bonds in particular. We make some simplifying assumptions about this model and a model for the riskless short-term interest rate. These assumptions allow us to find explicit solutions for the prices of risky zero-coupon bonds and floating rate coupons. We apply the model to Latin American Brady bonds, deducing the risk of default implied by market prices. Introduction: One-factor interest rate models This paper begins with a quick reminder of simple interest rate models, and then we concentrate on the default aspects of risky bonds. The starting point for the pricing and hedging of fixed-income securities is often a stochastic differential equation for a short-term interest rate r: dr = a(r,t)dt + b(r,t)dX , with dX being Brownian motion. -
Argentina: Rudderless
1 110TH CONGRESS " ! S. PRT. 2d Session COMMITTEE PRINT 110–48 ARGENTINA: RUDDERLESS REPORT TO THE MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION SEPTEMBER 9, 2008 Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations Available via World Wide Web: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/ index.html U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 44–239 PDF WASHINGTON : 2008 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Aug 31 2005 16:39 Sep 11, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5012 Sfmt 5012 H:\DOCS\44239.TXT sfrela2 PsN: MIKEB seneagle COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS JOSEPH R. BIDEN, JR., DELAWARE, Chairman CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut RICHARD G. LUGAR, Indiana JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts CHUCK HAGEL, Nebraska RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Wisconsin NORM COLEMAN, Minnesota BARBARA BOXER, California BOB CORKER, Tennessee BILL NELSON, Florida JOHN E. SUNUNU, New Hampshire BARACK OBAMA, Illinois GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, Ohio ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey LISA MURKOWSKI, Alaska BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland JIM DEMINT, South Carolina ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., Pennsylvania JOHNNY ISAKSON, Georgia JIM WEBB, Virginia DAVID VITTER, Louisiana ANTONY J. BLINKEN, Staff Director KENNETH A. MYERS, JR., Republican Staff Director (II) VerDate Aug 31 2005 16:39 Sep 11, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 H:\DOCS\44239.TXT sfrela2 PsN: MIKEB CONTENTS Page Letter of Transmittal ............................................................................................... v Introduction ............................................................................................................. -
I Hope You're Available to Swing by the Newseum This Evening As the National Park Trust Honors Senator Martin Heinrich (June 13Th at 6:30 PM)
Message From: Knauss, Chuck [[email protected]] Sent: 6/13/2018 4:40:24 PM To: Wehrum, Bill [/o=Exchangelabs/ou=Exchange Administrative Group (FYDI BO HF 23SPDL T)/cn=Recip ients/en =33d96a e800cf43a391 ld94a 7130b6c41-Weh rum, Wil] Subject: Invitation for tonight -- yes I know it's late ... Attachments: 2018 Bruce F Vento Public Service Award lnvitation.s-c-c-c-c.pdf Bill: Please come tonight and share with others that might be interested. ! I hope you're available to swing by the Newseum this evening as the National Park Trust honors Senator Martin Heinrich (June 13th at 6:30 PM). As you know, I'm on the NPT board and our mission is very important to me - protecting high priority lands for the National Park Service and creating future park stewards, with a special emphasis on children from under-served communities. Each year we host the Bruce F. Vento Public Service Award event to honor an outstanding elected official and conservationist and celebrate NPT's accomplishments. The invitation is below and attached. The short program will give you a chance to hear about the important and effective projects we have underway and the highlight of the evening is hearing directly from some over the under-served children in our programs. The event includes a reception with the 30-minute formal program starting at 7:00 PM. Best regards, Chuck Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED_002061_00180418-00001 Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED_002061_00180418-00002 Sierra Club v. EPA 18cv3472 NDCA Tier 1 ED_002061_00180418-00003 Bruce E Vento Public Service Award Recipients JOHL C'Jn<Jrntt'Nnm:m Sett; McCdkm, Minntrna 2th Ss>ndM fbb h)r!nvm. -
Ecuador's Brady Bond Default: Background and Implications
Order Code RL30348 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Ecuador’s Brady Bond Default: Background and Implications February 1, 2000 (name redacted) Specialist in International Trade and Finance Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service The Library of Congress ABSTRACT On September 30, 1999 Ecuador, facing an ongoing financial shortfall, became the first country to default on its Brady bonds, which were issued in the 1990s to address the lingering Latin American debt crisis by reducing debt and repackaging the remainder into various types of bonds that could be sold in the securities markets. Ecuador is seeking to restructure its external debt, negotiating with private-sector investors for debt rescheduling and with the IMF for a stand-by arrangement. Although Ecuador’s Brady bond default is small, it was precedent setting, with potentially broader implications for the international financial community and certainly a pivotal event contributing to the economic and social crisis that led to the ousting of a sitting president in January 2000. This report provides background on Ecuador’s Brady bond default in the broader context of its economic crisis and will be updated as events warrant. Ecuador’s Brady Bond Default: Background and Implications Summary Ecuador faces its worst economic crisis since the 1930s, suffering from a deep recession, collapsed currency, and failing banking system. Together, these problems led to huge fiscal deficits and increased external borrowing. The fiscal shortfall took a dramatic turn on September 30, 1999 when Ecuador decided to default on its Brady bonds, effectively cutting off Ecuador from foreign financial resources. -
The Erosion of Checks and Balances in Argentina
Electoral Fraud, the Rise of Peron and Demise of Checks and Balances in Argentina Lee J. Alston Andrés A. Gallo Professor of Economics Department of Economics Director, Program on Environment and Society University of North Florida University of Colorado Coggin College of Business, Room 3404 Research Associate, NBER e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] April 2007 For comments and support on earlier drafts we thank A. Leticia Arroyo-Abad, Blanca Sánchez-Alonso, Vanessa Baird, Dan Bogart, Michael Bordo, John Drobak, Bertrand Du Marais, Alan Dye, Samuel Fitch, Wolfgang Keller, John Londregan, Gary Libecap, Joseph Love, Geraldo Munck, Larry Neal, Douglass North, Leandro de la Escosura Prados, Sebastian Saeigh, Mary Shirley, Carol Shiue, Pablo Spiller, Sven Steinmo, Thomas Ulen, Werner Baer and seminar participants at the University of California, University of Colorado, University of Illinois, University of Paris X, and the NBER. We also received valuable feedback from participants at the 2004 meetings of the New Institutional Economics. 2 Electoral Fraud, the Rise of Peron and Demise of Checks and Balances in Argentina Abstract The future looked bright for Argentina in the early twentieth century. It achieved high levels of income per capita and was moving away from authoritarian government, towards a true democracy, with a system of checks and balances. Unfortunately, Argentina never finished the transition. The turning point away from the road towards checks and balances occurred in the 1930s. To stay in power in the 1930s, the Conservatives in the Pampas resorted to electoral fraud, which neither the legislative, executive, or judicial branches checked. -
Global Research on Governance and Social Protection Argentina Case Study
Global research on governance and social protection Argentina case study Document number Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This report was prepared by Development Pathways for the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Division for Inclusive Social Development, within the framework of the project “Global research on the governance of social protection systems.” The project is jointly funded and overseen by UNDESA and the International Labour Organization (ILO). The lead author of the report is Alexandra Barrantes (Senior Social Policy Specialist, Development Pathways), with inputs from Shea McClanahan (Senior Social Protection Specialist, Development Pathways) and Richard Chirchir (Senior Management Information System (MIS) Specialist, Development Pathways). Shea McClanahan and Stephen Kidd (Senior Social Policy Specialists, Development Pathways) provided oversight for the report. The authors are grateful for the constructive technical feedback from Aurelie Klein (ILO), as well as the overall guidance provided by Robert Venne (UNDESA), Oleg Serezhin (UNDESA) and Wenyan Yang (UNDESA). i Table of contents Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ i Acronyms ............................................................................................................................. iii 1 Key messages ................................................................................................................ -
Nichols and Sense a Blog from Dr. Dawn Nichols Convent of the Visitation School
Nichols and Sense A Blog from Dr. Dawn Nichols Convent of the Visitation School www.visitation.net/blog Book Ideas for Christmas (or Any Time) Last year, I asked my colleagues to share book recommendations with the broader Visitation community in the hopes that you could give books as gifts or simply find a good read for yourself. The resulting list ended up being very popular, so we have decided to once again share our recommendations. Following is a list of my colleagues’ book choices, broken into various categories, in their own words. Children and Young Adults: All of a Kind Family by Sydney Taylor: When I was a child, I read this series of books over and over and over again. How I loved the story of a Jewish family – two parents and five girls – living in the lower East Side of Manhattan in the early 1900s. Taylor made the family come to life through her writing about their relationships, daily lives, holidays, and the struggles they faced trying to make ends meet. The second book in the series – More All of a Kind Family – is still one of my favorite books of all time. Highly recommended for girls age 7-11. Elizabeth Arnstein Anne of Green Gables by Lucy Maud Montgomery: This wonderful story about a feisty, talkative, redheaded orphan girl who comes to live with an elderly brother and sister at a farm on Canada’s Prince Edward Island was first published in 1908, and more than 50 million copies have been sold since. The previously lonely and much-neglected Anne, who had in the past created imaginary companions, blossoms in the warmth and love provided by Marilla and Matthew Cuthbert, and they in turn are warmed by her affection, talkativeness and imagination. -
Comparison of the Constitutional Basis of the United States and Argentine Political Systems
COMPARISON OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL BASIS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ARGENTINE POLITICAL SYSTEMS By SEGUNDO V. LINARES QUINTANA t While the following article was in the process of publication, a Constitutional Convention of 169 members adopted a new Constitu- tion for the Argentine Republic; however, the significant changes effected by this new Constitution indicate that the problems raised herein are still germane. This new Constitution is made up of 103 Articles and one Tem- porary Article, as compared with the 110 Articles of the old Consti- tution. It shows a decided tendency to recognize the advancement of the social and economic rights of all the people, as indicated by the Articles concerning the rights of workmen and the family, of educa- tion and culture for all, and the determination of the social functions of property. Among the most significant changes are the provisions permitting the re-election of the President and Vice-President for more than one term of six years, and for the election of Senators and Depu- ties for terms of six years. Another major innovation of particular interest is the provision extending Argentine citizenship automatically to all foreigners who have resided in Argentina five years unless the foreigner signifies in writing his intention not to become a citizen. The whole spirit of this new Constitution is presumably expressed in the amendment to the Preamble, which adds, after setting forth the purposes of "confirming justice, consolidating domestic peace, pro- viding for the common defense, promoting the general welfare . .," the language: ". ratifying the inexorable decision to constitute a nation, socially just, economically free and politically sover- eign.