Economic Impact Analysis of the Proposed Pike2bike Trail

ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL

PREPARED FOR: Bedford County Commissioners Fulton County Commissioners

MAY 2014 02 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL PA HouseRepresentative DickHess(1938–2013) PA HouseRepresentative JesseTopper PA StateSenator JohnEichelberger U.S. CongressmanBillShuster U.S. SenatorPatrickToomey U.S. SenatorRobertP.Casey FEDERAL ANDSTATE ELECTEDOFFICIALS Rodney McCray Craig Cutchall Irvin Dasher FULTON COUNTYCOMMISSIONERS Barry L.Dallara S. PaulCrooks Kirt B.Morris BEDFORD COUNTYCOMMISSIONERS Mary K.Seville,FultonCountyPlanningCommission Donald Schwartz, BedfordCountyPlanningCommission PROJECT MANAGERS project advances. trail Pike2Bike the as involvement future their to forward look we and and expertise given to this study. Their guidance has been instrumental elected officials and steering committee members for their interest, time managers, project residents, the thank and recognize to like would We ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS John Maxwell, ResidentandTrail Advocate Dennis Hudson,C&OBicycle FoundationfortheAlleghenies Steven K.Howsare, FormerBedfordCountyCommissioner A SPECIALTHANKSTO: Kay Reynolds,BedfordCountyEndowments&Community Jennifer Lentz-Kovacs, BedfordCountyConservation District Olga Herbert,LincolnHighway HeritageCorridor,Inc. Betty Slayton,BedfordCountyDevelopment Association Dennis Tice, BedfordCountyVisitors Bureau Kellie GoodmanShaffer,BedfordCountyChamberofCommerce Terri Brumbaugh,BedfordCountyDevelopment Association Calvin Olson,OmniResortsBedfordSprings Charles Swartzwelder, EastProvidence Township Supervisors Joe Payne,EastProvidence Township MunicipalAuthority Fred Temke, BedfordCountyPlanningCommission James Bittner,Gateway Companies Matt Hicks,REI,Inc. Jill Latuch,REI,Inc. Murray Schrotenboer,GrouselandTours Andy Patterson,SouthernAllegheniesConservancy James Smith,Pennsylvania DCNR–BureauofForestry Seleen Shives, FultonCountyConservation District STEERING COMMITTEE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY P.04 01

INTRODUCTION P.06 02 TABLE OF CONTENTS THE STUDY PROCESS P.08 03 TOURISM, HEALTH & PROPERTY VALUES 04 P.09 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL

USER AND RESIDENT SURVEY P.12 05

ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT P.21 06

ECONOMIC IMPACT MODEL P.24 07

TRAIL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS P.29 08

RETURN ON INVESTMENT P.42 09

CONCLUSION P.45 10

APPENDIX P.48 apx 03 04 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL miles). Tunnel(1.3 Hill Sideling the and miles) Tunnel(0.7 Hill Rays the section of the former Pennsylvania Turnpike features two tunnels, This trail. multi-purpose destination, a into Counties Bedford and Fulton both in located Turnpike Pennsylvania abandoned the section of vision 8.5-mile an develop The to is (2006). project trail Pike2Bike Study the for Re-Use Adaptive and Plan Master launched a planning process to update the Pike2Bike Trail Network In the summer of 2013, Bedford and Fulton County Commissioners SUMMARY EXECUTIVE 01. trail studiesthatexaminedcurrent andpotentialuserspending. research. Estimates of visitors spending were derived from other inspection engineering onsite including a tunnel repair estimate, present-day and additional independent web a report, master previous planning the include to sources of combination a from estimated visitors spending. Construction estimates were derived software. Inputs to the model included construction estimates and scenario- based economic model was created and analyzed a using IMPLAN collected, information the Using levels. visitor and comparative understanding of trail impact experiences, amenities a to led sources these review.Combined, literature extensive an and analysis, and distribution survey a meetings, outreach public began in study August impact of The 2013. developed. The was process trail included the a if series economy of site regional visits, and community the to benefits potential the would project to endeavor study impact economic The study. impact economic an conduct to was process update plan master the in step first The THE PROCESS POSITIVE OUTLOOK, POSITIVE IMPACT The survey and public outreach revealed strong community support for the Pike2Bike project. Over 80 percent of current Fulton and Bedford County residents expressed support for the proposed Pike2Bike trail. Survey respondents from across the country (76 percent) believed that the completion of Pike2Bike

project would help bring new jobs or economic opportunities to ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL the area. Current and Potential business owners also indicated (32 percent) they may invest in a new business to support the trail if it were developed. Additionally, the economic impact results from IMPLAN reflected both construction and ongoing operational impacts in key areas such as visitor spending, wages, local taxes and overall economic output.

The findings revealed that if only access and safety concerns were addressed as part of the project, the economic impact to the local economy would be approximately $5.1 million and result in a combination of 56.5 construction and ongoing support jobs. If additional infrastructure amenities and programming efforts were developed, allowing for a broader trail user constituency, the economic impact could increase to as much as $8.8 million and a combination of 143.8 construction and ongoing support jobs. In each scenario, the Pike2Bike trail project would have a positive impact on the Bedford and Fulton County economies.

05 06 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL A RICHHISTORY INTRODUCTION 02. rnprain itr ad neato wt te niomn as environment the with interaction and highway history of transportation blend unique a represents corridor Pike2Bike The construction oftheproject, was notincludedintheMaster Plan. and funding the advancing to vital trail, proposed the of impact economic potential the of analysisHowever, an Plan. Master the in investigated also Several were models million. management $3.05 and was ownership dollars) (2005 project the for estimated cost The 2006. in finalized was it and later Plan years Master several the commissioned SAC Pike2Bike. the trail – multi-use corridor a into tunnels and roadway the rehabilitating of profit Southern Alleghenies Conservancynon- (SAC), with the the intention to transferred was tunnels two of the miles including roadway 8.5 of ownership 2001 In sector. public the to section abandoned the Turnpikereturn the to 2000 chose In Commission push forthetunnels’preservation andpublicuse. to advocates led has history rich This years. hundred one past the over endured has land of stretch this uses and changes the of artifacts and photographs letters, maps, retained have citizens interested for time, Over deteriorated. sporadically slowly but purposes, various used be to continued tunnels two and section abandoned The 1968. in opened and constructed was roadway (1.3 Tunnel Hill Sideling miles; the longest tunnel on the Turnpike) in Fulton County, and a new Counties, Fulton and Bedford of border the on miles) Tunnel(0.7 Hill Rays included Turnpikethat tunnels were added at most locations. relief However, for an 11-mile section of additional bottlenecks, these alleviate to order In years. the over increased traffic as bottlenecks significant result was The direction. each in lane travel the one on only tunnels had Turnpike the time, that At 1940. “superhighway”) in traffic to first opened was (America’s Turnpike Pennsylvania The it traverses the Buchanan State Forest. The western trailhead in Based on the RTC study findings and independent web research, Breezewood offers easy access to and from a Turnpike exit and if developed and promoted, the Pike2Bike 8.5-mile, two-tunnel from Route 30 in McConnellsburg. Moreover, it is only an hour’s trail is likely positioned to be the largest and longest former road- drive from the Great Allegheny Passage trail in Cumberland, use two-tunnel trail in the country—boasting over 10,500 feet of Maryland. through-tunnel experience.

TUNNELS ATTRACT – ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL BEDFORD AND FULTON COUNTIES’ VALUE PROPOSITION Communities across the country are often challenged to identify The Pike2Bike 8.5-mile, two-tunnel trail their unique value proposition - that one resource or feature that distinguishes it from all others and helps to attract new residents is likely positioned to be the largest and and investment. The Pike2Bike Trail, with its two major tunnel longest former road-use two-tunnel trail in features, likely stands alone as one of the most unique trail the country—boasting over 10,500 feet of features in the country. through-tunnel experience. In 2001, the Rails to Trails Conservancy (RTC) conducted a detailed summary of national trails containing tunnels. Entitled Tunnels on Trails, the study documented 78 tunnels on 36 trails in the The flexibility of the proposed trail design allows users to either United States. Additionally, RTC highlighted the trends in tunnel double back and return to their vehicles, or continue their ride trail development and standard best practices in operations and to another destination. For users who choose to return to their maintenance. Of those trails, all except one are former railroad vehicles, the Pike2Bike trail offers 17 miles of traveling distance tunnels generally ranging in length between 300 and 1,500 feet. and the opportunity to experience the tunnels four times. Unique features add major value and have the potential to attract more The Nation’s longest rail to trail tunnel is Snoqualmie Tunnel users from a larger geographical area. (11,288 feet or 2.3 miles) in the State of Washington. Snoqualmie is part of the Iron Horse State Park Trail and attracts approximately 200,000 annual visitors. The only former road-use tunnel is the Moiser Twin Tunnels in Moiser, Oregon. Each tunnel measures 493 feet in length. The Moiser Tunnel trail attracts just over 300,000 visitors each year and features special events to include a tunnel Marathon run/walk. In 2012 that marathon attracted 1,000 official registrants. 07 08 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL the returnoninvestment. and scenarios), development the on (based results impact economic study process: the literature review, the resident and user the survey, of the phases four into divided are report this of sections following The investment. capital initial the against overtime impact operating on investment analysis was conducted in an effort to evaluate the net return a Finally, scenario. economic each for conducted Separate were models impact created. were scenarios development three Based on the data gathered, literature reviews and survey responses, development, survey original administration andanalysis. through gained also were insights Critical impacts. trail understand to conducted surveys user of types the and practices, best development trail organizations, advocacy development. trail Research into focused on gaining a deep research understanding of trial programs, web general and studies impact conducted economic trail was regional and national plans, master A) trail included that Appendix (see review literature extensive An draft report,allowingforadditionalinput. the of release the followed also period comment public A survey. in contacted were individuals person, by phone/email, or were 700 able to comment through the online than more process, study the meetings, with business, property owners, and concerned citizens. Throughout stakeholder several conducted workshops, and phone interviews in team both Bedford and Fulton Counties consultant The will focus on trail design, land use and technical engineering aspects. the of impact economic the Pike2Bike Trail- project if developed. It is to anticipated that later planning steps is study is this of goal The PROCESS STUDY 03. THE 04. TOURISM, HEALTH & PROPERTY VALUES: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Recreational trail use, and the experiences that come with it, is increasingly viewed as drivers for economic development. According to the 2010 Outdoor Foundation’s Outdoor Recreation Participation ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Report, a total of 137.8 million Americans (48.9% of the total U.S. population) engaged in some type of outdoor activity. Beyond simply playing sports or riding bikes, Americans are traveling to experience different trails. While they travel, trail-users spend money in retail establishments, overnight accommodations, and on hard goods.

Tourism along trails and the associated spending has generated millions of dollars in economic impact for other trails around the country. For instance, the RTC reported that the Mineral Wells to Weatherford Rail-Trail near Dallas, Texas attracts approximately 300,000 people annually generating $2 million in local revenues. According to the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council, the West Orange, Little Econ, and Cady Way trails in Orange County, Florida supported 516 jobs and realized an estimated economic impact of $42.6 million in 2010. Throughout the literature review process, dozens of economic impact studies from across the country highlight the multi-faceted economic impact trails generate for the communities that surround them.

09 10 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL place fornaturerelatedtourism. ideal an it making streams, of miles 9,500 and lakes of acres 20,000 than more land, forested of acres million 1.8 over includes region areas, whitewater opportunities and lakes. Moreover, the Alleghenies food/drinks. take-out Bedford and Fulton Counties are both surrounded by State Parks, ski and groceries by followed spending, visitor of percentage largest the represented gas/oil and Restaurants/bars areas. ski and whitewater, marinas, with associated was spending non-resident or out-of-state visitors. An from additional $9.5 was million million in extra $201 while visitors resident from resulted million $648 spending, that Of trips. their on million $859 spent who (2010) Parks, with their associated trail networks, hosted 37.9 million visitors State’s the of that noted (DCNR) Department Resources Natural and Pennsylvania Conservation the and University State Penn with partnership in prepared report 2012 country.A the of parts other in In Pennsylvania, the economic impact from trails is even greater than a resultofhealthierlifestyle. as costs insurance savehealth individuals on and money companies that noted report Business Means Bicycling The costs. healthcare reduce could that and habits in recreation and exercise healthful engaged more biking began who persons that revealed study Banks Outer Northern The health. improved as such use related trail from spending, visitor benefits tangible less from the highlight to effort benefits more took studies some the on focus studies most While otherwise occur. not would that investment from business spur does spending impact trail-related financial the nearby that towns evidence provides in trails expanding developed or opening Multiple businesses use. trail of to examples related directly is week the during their business of percent 40 and business weekend their of percent 75 that reported another while profits in increase percent 30 a realized and result of the trail development. One business moveddirect closer to a the trail as opened businesses that revealed study The Trail.Tram and health Rabbit Swamp System Hospital the Greenville the of impacts of economic Furman study ago.” in-depth years an 10 released vacant recently University nearly was that downtown a in working now people 250 than more with businesses new in gain net a and reinvestment downtown “inspiring with credited is Delaware, research done by RTC, the Mispillion River Greenway Trail in Milford, represent potential new, permanent business investors. According to trail and river towns like Jim Thorpe, PA, thousands of annual visitors areas like Summit County Colorado and Hood River Oregon to smaller mountain big From investment.Tourism business new generate can Socially, the push towards a healthier and more environmentally Property values represent another often quoted but more difficult to friendly lifestyle is being driven by a variety of additional factors. The quantify economic impact of trail development. The RTC has conducted Centers for Disease Control recognizes the continued crisis of obesity extensive research into the positive effect of trails and greenways in the United States and need to reverse that trend. At Forks Area on surrounding property values. While the degree to which property Trail System in Clarks Hill South Carolina, the Coldwater Mountain values increase varies on the type, scale and location of the trail, in Bike Trail study reported that “about 80 percent of its users are local, the end there is almost always a positive effect. The effect on property most of who did not bike before the trail was built. However, now the values was so dramatic in Indianapolis that, following a study by the

200-300 users per day that visit the 35 mile long course have helped Center for Urban Policy and the Environment at Indiana University– ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL support a double digit increase in bike store sales and service, an Purdue University Indianapolis, the Indianapolis Star proclaimed, “It astonishing trend given that two out of three users of the trail did not may not have sand and crashing waves, but the Monon Trail is the bike before it was built”. Trails encourage an active lifestyle and trail equivalent of beachfront property in the Indianapolis area.” regions attract residents (and businesses) seeking an active outdoor lifestyle.

11 12 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Resident Survey Resident & User 05. the survey. in participate to contacts personal their encourage to and websites their on link the post to asked also were They databases. accessible other and friends, customers, employees, their to letter/link survey the email to asked were members Committee Steering Pike2Bike bias, reduce To questions. survey The respondent. each for answerweregenerated choices randomly two first based the flow to logic responses survey a on follow online to an designed were using Questions developed platform. was instrument survey The METHODOLOGY The survey findingsinpartassistedwith: to important understand thedevelopment potentialofthisasset. also was owners business potential and current and in residents, country.current the users, potential trail surveyof a Therefore existing any to it compare directly tunnels to difficult the trail of the make history and scale length, The unique. is Pike2Bike proposed the use, trail of impact economic the surrounding trends regional and national into insight provided literature existing While { { { { { {

Expected visitation from outside Bedford and Fulton Counties Measure thepotentialforvolunteerism The potentialforbusinessinvestment The potentialtrailusesandhowthoseinteract Estimates forannualvisitation The development oftheimpactscenarios

The consultant team further contacted affinity groups on social 1. Please tell us about yourself. media websites with an interest in biking, trails, horseback riding, (select all that apply) dogsledding, camping and outdoor activities. Consistent and regular Count Percent promotion of the survey continued through the period the survey was I own a bicycle 376 73.6% open, from October 14, 2013, to November 1, 2013. I am a resident of Bedford or Fulton county 293 57.3% I am a business owner / manager 115 22.5% Because the survey was designed to target a variety of stakeholders, I am a farmer or run an agricultural-based business 37 7.2% ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL the initial question led respondents to pages designed specifically I own a horse 32 6.3% to capture the opinions of this diverse group of stakeholders in one None of these 31 6.1% survey instrument.

The second survey question, also seen by all survey respondents, 2. Tell us about how you use trails. asked about specific trail uses. As a respondent selected a trail use, (select all that apply) a survey page with questions about their desires was automatically Count Percent appended to their individualized survey. Walking / Hiking 417 81.6% Cycling / Mountain Biking / Bike Riding 341 66.7% After responding to a series of survey questions based on individual Outdoor Tours of Historical Trails 153 29.9% responses to the questions listed above, survey participants were all Camping / Backpacking 135 26.4% directed to a page designed to collect responses related to their top Running / Jogging 129 25.2% 5 trail amenities (open comments were also permitted). Reponses Skiing / Skijoring 77 15.1% were later used to inform the impact scenario development. Geocaching 75 14.7% Snomobiling / ATVing 48 9.4% In the comments section respondents noted that additional amenities Dogsledding 39 7.6% are also desirable to include: emergency vehicle access with I do not advocate or access trails, but I think trails 30 5.9% markers, handicap accessibility, trashcans, solar energy and cell- are important phone service. All comments can be found in the complete survey Horseback Riding 29 5.7% report. None of these (trails do not interest me) 11 2.2% I do not access trails, but I do environmental 2 0.4% advocacy Other 26 5.1%

13 14 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL million peopleacross ninestates. Pike2Bike isestimated tobeasmuch51 The regionalmarket ofpotentialvisitorsfor (select allthatapply) 3. Whatamenitiesdoyou expecttoseeif/whenyou visitatrail? I donotexpectamenitiesonatrail Other Exercise Stations Access toElectricity Barbeque Pits Access toFood Camping Areas Flusing Toilets Lighting atNight Running Water Security /EmergencyAccess Rest Areas Picinic Tables (covered oruncovered Portable Restrooms Park Benches Historical Markers(withhistoricalinformation) Directional Signs/Maps Parking LotsatTrail Head on Percent Count 0 21.1% 28.6% 108 28.6% 146 29.2% 146 34.4% 149 34.6% 176 50.1% 177 53.4% 256 55.6% 273 58.9% 284 64.6% 301 72.6% 330 84.0% 371 429 73.3% 6.9% 7.4% 17 9.0% 35 38 15.1% 46 77

RESPONDENT PROFILES across 9states. visitors for Pike2Bike is estimated to be as much as 51 million people generalizable to the regional market. The regional market of potential there is a 95% level of confidence that responses from this sample calculations, are power statistical and techniques analysis spatial Using disability orlive withsomeonewhohasadisability. a had either respondents survey of 15% degree. four-year a least at completed 55.7% and education post-secondary some having 85% with educated well largely were year.respondents per The $75,000 above make 46.7% remaining the and income personal in year per $75,000 than less make (53.3%) half than more little A 75. and 18 of ages the between were (93.4%) respondents the of Most questions) demographic all for option an was Nondisclosure gender. disclose Respondents not did (1.6% Pennsylvania. females (47.2%) 240 and in males (51.2%) 260 included located are business 99 115 those, from Of responses owners. included also sample survey The residents ofBedfordandFultonCounties. were respondents) all from of 57.3% were(or those of 83%) 293 and Pennsylvania or (424 respondents of number overwhelming an Nevertheless, India. from responses international 5 were there Additionally Columbia. of District the as well as Virginia, West and Wisconsin Virginia, New Texas, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio, Colorado, York, New Illinois, Jersey, California, Hawaii, including Florida, states Delaware, Connecticut, 16 from people included were responses usable survey and considered completed valid responses Partially where applicable. Respondents completed. partially were surveys 107 and completed fully were surveys 511 of total A Pike2Bike Survey Respondent Locations & Market Area

The local residents of both Bedford County (85%) and Fulton County (82%) expressed great support for the development of the proposed Pike2Bike trail. ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL

BEDFORD AND FULTON COUNTY RESIDENTS This section captured opinions of local residents in the following areas:

{ Knowledge and support of the Pike2Bike trail { Assessment of the potential impact on jobs and wages in the area { Potential concerns { Additional comments as a resident

One hundred and fifty one (151) Bedford County residents and 68 Futon County residents who did not own businesses responded to the survey. Of the local residents of both Bedford County (85%) and Pike2Bike Market Area Fulton County (82%) expressed great support for the development + Survey Respondent Location of the proposed Pike2Bike trail. About one-third of resident (9 other respondents across U.S. not shown) respondents in both Fulton and Bedford Counties believed strongly that the development of this project would bring jobs, job security, or revenues to state and local governments through tax collection. Within this overall market, there was special interest in responses Another 103 respondents (or about 51%) were hopeful but unsure of from three specific demographics: 1) Residents of Bedford and whether or not it would bring economic benefits. Both Bedford and Fulton Counties; 2) Potential non-resident visitors; and 3) Current and Fulton County residents largely encouraged the trail development-- potential business owners. some providing comments that they already access the trail regularly; 15 16 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL employed in the service industries. employed intheserviceindustries. were (52%) 1,838 work, to County Fulton the leaving people 3,531 those County.Of Fulton inside jobs held counties other from people 2,802 period, same the During County. the County of outside Fulton working in but living people 3,531 were there 2011, in County, Fulton For industries. services the in employed were them of (46%) 6,440 County,2,766 Bedford inside those working counties other from residents Of County. Bedford of inside working counties other from residents 6,440 were there period, same the During County. there that were 10,993BedfordCountyresidentsemployed outsideofBedford reported Dynamics Employer-Household Longitudinal the 2011, In Data. Census with correspond results survey The area. the in economies local the of interconnectedness the highlights it as survey employed outside their current county of residence. This is the important of (128) 63.7% of were respondents employed.were currently 20.9%, or 42, those, Of total combined A patterns. travel The survey also collected information on local residents occupational concerns thatcouldbeaddressedthroughthenextplanningphases. protection from trespassing on private property are two of the public and mitigation Vandalism concerns. any present not did project this that selected respondents of 38.6% comment. a provide or concern a if me right now”, the appropriate, survey tool would allow respondents to select any believed they concerns project this about as “nothing option the selected respondent concerns many as select able to were residents While vandalism. to related residents County Fulton and County Bedford both by expressed concern largest The hours 3,700 over annually tohelpmaintainandimprove thetrail. volunteer to willing be would residents County Fulton and Bedford that documented also survey The regularly. it and others claiming that if the trail is developed, then they would use development ofthePike2Biketrail?(selectallthatapply) 4. Whatconcerns,ifany, doyou have aboutthe entertain. However, the value-added their work brings to the the to employer. brings work County their Bedford the impact largely may profits of terms in employer value-added the However, and entertain. taxes, bills, pay they where County Fulton impact largely will earn they wages the then possible), is indicates data above the (as industry related service a in County Bedford in works County Fulton in living person economic a if the example, For distributing counties. multiple another, across impact in live may county one from Workers area. the in regional counties between a interdependence is economic there that imply results survey and data census The Noise Construction Other Traffic /Congestion Increased Accidents 38.6% other services Increased pressureonplice,EMTs, hospitals,or Environmental Damage 78 Trespassing onPrivate Property Alcohol /DrugUse Nothing aboutthisprojectconcernsmerightnow Vandalism on Percent Count 25.9% 7.4% 8.9% 12 15 9.9% 18 11.9% 20 20.3% 24 23.3% 41 47 44.6% 90 1.0% 3.0% 2 6 NON-RESIDENTS 5. Which of the following attractions have you visited or would A total of 218 non-residents responded to the survey. In this section, you consider visiting in the area? (select all that apply) the survey questions for respondents were designed to understand Count Percent the awareness of the proposed Pike2Bike trail project by non- Pike2Bike Trail 148 68.2% residents of Bedford and Fulton Counties as well as their potential Breezewood, PA 138 63.6% for future visitation. 110 (50.4%) were aware of the Pike2Bike trail Shawnee State Park 137 63.1% prior to participating in this survey. 148 (68.2%) expressed interest in Old Bedford Village 134 61.8% ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL visiting the Pike2Bike trail should it be completed. It is clear from the Fall Foliage Festival (Bedford County) 128 59.0% survey results that awareness of the Pike2Bike trail has generated Cowan’s Gap State Park 97 44.7% interest from potential visitors. If this percentage is applied to the Buchanan State Park 95 43.8% entire Pike2Bike market area of 51 million people, that would be the Lincoln Caverns / Wisper Rocks 93 42.9% equivalent of 35 million Americans expressing interest in visiting the Blue Knob Four Seasons Resort 90 41.5% trail. While an expression of interest does not imply action, it does Omni Bedford Springs Golf Course or Resort / Spa 85 39.2% indicate that the pool of interested potential visitors may be significant. Historic Burnt Cabins Grist Mill 65 30.0% When asked about their propensity to visit other attractions in the area Annual Fulton Fall Folk Festival 44 20.3% based on previous action or interest, non-residents chose attractions Whitetail Resort 37 17.1% in both Bedford County and Fulton County further highlighting the Cedarrow’s Bison Farm’s Bison Corral 34 15.7% interconnectedness of the two regions. It would be possible for Christmas in McConnellsburg 32 14.8% non-resident visitors to patronize multiple attractions on one trip The National Museum of the American Coverlet 21 9.7% to the area. Visits to other attractions should be considered a part Saunderosa Campground 17 7.8% of the overall potential economic impact of trail development—to Other 14 6.5% attract and retain non-resident visitation for a multiple-day, multiple- Great Cove Golf Course 11 5.1% attraction experience. I have not visited and I would not consider visiting 1 0.5% any of these

Visits to other attractions should be considered a part of the overall potential economic impact of trail development—to attract and retain non-resident visitation for a multiple- day, multiple-attraction experience. 17 18 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL of currentbusinessownersinthefollowingbroadcategories: opinions the capture to designed weresurvey the of pages separate Three both. selected respondents some because together added be operated an agricultural based business. These two or categories farmers cannot were they that selected (37) seven Thirty managers. or A total of 115 respondents identified themselves as business owners Current BusinessOwners CURRENT ANDPOTENTIALBUSINESSOWNERS { { { the jobs, wages and business opportunities—both current and future. on effect trail’s Pike2Bike the about attitudes their elicit to designed were Questions business. the of type and size the Information on collected was businesses. toward managers focus a and with questions owners answered business 133 Approximately owners/ managers. business non-resident as questions same the asked were then owners business resident questions, these answering After they work. where county the of outside living employees 150 and 1 between had 0 businesses employees other than the owner). The (12 remaining business had county same the in work and live employees their all that reported 51 owners, businesses these Of County. Fulton in managed or businesses owned in Bedford (65) County while Sixty-five 25 owned (85.4%). or managed visitors businesses frequent and uses many with trail world-class a becoming it support (86.5%) would project and the of aware generally were and (89) Bedford Counties Fulton of residents were that Owners/Managers Business

Farmers/ AgriculturalBusinessesOwners/Managers All BusinessOwners Bedford/Fulton CountyResidentBusinessOwners from visitation. from visitation. flow traffic increased of result a as increases activities these from gains economic realize to farmers for capacity the modeling, impact economic formal the into factored directly economic be cannot potential opportunities these While products. farm local sell and buy to suppliers food local with partnerships create could farmers local Additionally visitors. Pike2Bike to advertise to more and visits patch farmers up markets set or farm could stands, farmers initiate Local farm tours, flows. hayrides, traffic pumpkin increased farmers on of capitalize initiatives to individual through done be can it or tourists incoming and farmers local with relationships support purposely to local farms and local farmers. impact Either programming can be to developed potential the has trail Pike2Bike the of development The meat. and food in sales increased with along farm the to visits and tours farm increase could they believed respondents the of survey Many the residents. County Fulton and Bedford of also were Farmers the opportunity.of portion All impact interesting small an offer do a they (32), only respondents represent farmers While 45% 32% 23% 6. Will the successful completion of 6. Will thesuccessfulcompletionof the Pike2BikeTrail possitively impact your business? I Don’tKnow No Yes /Possibly IL IN TN MI KY OH

+

+ + + + +

+++ + +

WV ++ + +++++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +++ + ++++++++ + ++ + + +++

+

+

++ + ++++++ + + + + + + + + + + +++++++++ +++ + + +++ + ++++++++ + + + ++ + +++ + + + ++ + +++ + ++++++++ ++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +++++ ++++++++ ++ + + +++++ + + + + + + + + + ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +++++++++++ + + + + ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++++ + + + + ++++++ + + + + + + + + + + + + +++ + + PA ++++++++++++++++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + NC

VA ++ +++ + ++ ++++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++++ +++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + ++++++++++ + + + ++ + +++++++++++++++ +++++ ++ + + ++++ + + + ++ + + + +++ + + MD + + + + ++ +

+ + +

+ + NY + ++ + + +

+ + + + ++ + ++ + +++ DE

+ + + + NJ

+ VT

+

+ + + CT NH MA RI VT

To gauge the potential for investment directly related to the Potential Business Owners NH

MA NY + development of the Pike2Bike trail, all respondents were asked All non-business owners (396) were asked if they believed the + CT RI about their willingness to invest in a new business. The chart below Pike2Bike trail would help bring jobs and new economicMI opportunity + + + + + + ++ summarizes those results. If a respondent selected they were not to the area. They were also asked that if the trail were developed,+ ++ + ++++ + + ++ + ++ PA + ++ ++ NJ + ++++++++++++++++++++ + + interested in investing in a new business, all other answer choices would they consider opening a business related to the trail. A solid+++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++ + ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++ ++++ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++ ++ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ + ++ ++++ ++++++++MD++++ were disabled. majority, 282 (76%), believed that this project has the potential to+ ++++ DE OH ++++++++++ IN ++ + bring jobs and economic opportunity to BedfordIL and Fulton Counties. WV ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL 7. Would you be willing to invest in any of the following business People also expressed a genuine interest in the potential for small + VA opportunities associated with the Pike2Bike project? business investment. One hundred and twenty-six (126) KYrespondents

(Current Business Owners) reported previously considering starting a new business and indicated NC

Count Percent their specific interests as it relates to the Pike2Bike trailTN below. Some I am not interested in investing in a new business 87 65.4% respondents also provided contact information and asked to be Bike Rental 17 12.8% notified of entrepreneurial opportunities. Bike Supplies 15 11.3% Bike Shops 14 10.5% 8. Do you believe that the successful Maintenance and Repair 13 9.8% comletion of the Pike2Bike Event Planning 13 9.8% project will help bring Bars / Restaurants 13 9.8% 16% new jobs and economic Hotels 11 8.3% opportunities to the area? Outdoor and Supply Stores 10 7.5% Other 9 6.8% 8% Construction 8 6.0% Yes / Possibly Landscaping 7 5.3% Clothing 7 5.3% No Auto Accessories 6 4.5% 76% I Don’t Know Convenience Stores 5 3.8% Footwear 4 3.0%

19 20 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL (Potential BusinessOwners) opportunities associatedwiththePike2Bikeproject? 9. Would you bewillingtoinvest inanyofthefollowingbusiness Auto Accessories Hotels Landscaping Event Planning Construction Convenience Stores Footwear Clothing Outdoor andSupplyStores Maintenance andRepair Bars /Restaurants 80.8% Other Bike Shops 299 Bike Supplies Bike Rental I amnotinterestedininvesting inanewbusiness on Percent Count 43.8% 3.8% 4.3% 14 4.6% 14 4.9% 16 6.2% 17 8.1% 18 23 30

0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0 1.9% 5 1.9% 5 2.2% 7 2.2% 7 2.4% 8 8 9 each ofthethreescenariosare addressedinthefollowingsections. investment approach. The results of the economic impact analysis for three high-level and low, that mid, a using suggested created be scenarios wasdevelopment it plan, master Pike2Bike previous the of update potential the With impact. economic the quantify to was step next the responses, survey the analyzing and collecting After ongoing development ofthetrail. source of information that can inform the future planning phases and to the Bedford and Fulton County planning staff and represent a good to comment in their own words. These comments have been provided informative very respondents allowed questions Many process. study be the throughout to proven have survey this from results The SURVEY SUMMARY 06. Assessing the Economic Impact

TRAIL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS Each of the trail development scenarios summarizes the potential economic outcome for the Pike2Bike trail. Scenario 1 or “Safety First” represents the minimal-level of investment and development needed to make access and use through the tunnels ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL safe and comfortable for the general public. Scenario 2 or “Multi- User Recreational Trail” represents a mid-level investment and development scenario that would accommodate more and diverse user constituencies with added comfort and trail access. Scenario 3 or “World Class Trail” assumes the highest level of investment and development within this study scope resulting in a high profile destination trail experience. The costs and amenities associated with each scenario was developed based on the 2006 Gannett Fleming Master plan, the user and resident survey conducted as part of this study, and selected comparative trail experiences nationally.

Assumptions relating to trail features and amenities were made in order to estimate the necessary investment and the level of impact that investment would generate. More detailed and technical cost estimating is expected to take place in future planning phases. It is important to note that the development scenarios and analysis in this study are not intended to be technical site planning or design/ engineering recommendations. Rather the investment and impact described in each of the following scenarios should be considered to broadly represent three distinct “visions” for potential Pike2Bike trail development. These visions begin to define what may be possible for development. The results help inform what could be done to capture, and capitalize on, the opportunities for economic impact.

21 22 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL destination trail and a trail near a state forest. destination trailandanear astateforest. a length, similar a tunnels), the as (such feature special a turnpike, the with association historical unique: Pike2Bike make that factors the of some as such factors chart on based (see selected were numbers They below). visitation potential inform help to used were Given the unique features associated with Pike2Bike, five trail studies trail impactstudies. other from findings the to compared then were results The analysis. STATA using were compared tools to population data forecasting generated from GIS spatial and software Statistical the trails. comparative considering by for estimates visitation generated and responses, survey area, were market overall scenario each in numbers visitation annual of Estimates scenario. each in investment of level low,a to loosely correlating estimates, visitation of high and medium level high and low,medium, a contains scenario development Each Pennsylvania. of outside even and area regional broad a from coming are visitors current that suggests also It levels. visitation current of estimation the to contributed has it counts, visitor trail actual as reliable not and media indicating dates and times. While this information is anecdotal uses) other of commemorated their recent myriad have experiences Visitorsthrough web public.” a sites the and to social for “closed officially being (and site the trail despite bike a as trail Pike2Bike proposed the use people that fact known a is it Already factors. of Annual visitation levels can vary significantly depending on a number VISITATION ESTIMATES Annual Visitation EstimatesforOtherBenchmarkTrails { { { { { erasaefrs JacksonHoleTrail Similar length Near astateforest nected) Destination Trail (uncon- Virginia HeritageTrail Historical Significance LaurelHighlands Association withTurnpike Trail Name Element ofComparison

realizes 220,000 visitorsannually. a pavilion, picnic tables and a playground. The St. Mark’s trail restrooms, includes that end other the at trailhead extensive an and end one at Breezewood) (like town a with located is paved, is and long, miles 16 is Florida in trail Marks St. The existing traillocatedinaState forest. an to extension proposed Traila Hole is Jackson Project The Lower Trail was visitedbyatleast130,000peoplein2012. The area. the in trails other to connected not trail destination a also is County Blair neighboring Trailin Lower located The This trailwelcomed 130,172visitorsin2006. unique with history interesting features that would attract visitors for historical purpose only. an has it because chosen was Trail)Town Ghost The (aka Trail Heritage Virginia The estimated tohave 281,145visitorsin2011. significant required that repair before the trail could be opened. bridge Laurel Highlands was a has It turnpike. the with associated also is it because trail comparison potential a as The Laurel Highlands Hiking Trail in Pennsylvania was chosen t aksTalF 220,000 FL St. Mark’sTrail Project Lower Trail (aka TheGhostTown Trail) Hiking Trail Location Y222,533 WY PA VA PA Visitors 130,000 130,172 281,145 # of Surrounding market attractions were also considered such as the In each scenario, visitor numbers were projected to best match the Old Economy Village and the Penn Trolley Museum which attract level of trail development and the additional visitors that may be as many as 25,000 visitors annually. Stakeholder interviews and attracted by programming and amenities. During the master planning independent research further suggest that events programming such phases, efforts should be made to consider additional amenities and as geocaching, cycling tours/races, dog-mushing, and running events programming that enhance the user experience, attract more visitors can attract anywhere between 200 and 1,500 visitors per event (or and increase the potential economic impact. more depending on the type, purpose and level of promotion). ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL

23 24 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Impact Model 07. Economic and inducedimpact. indirect direct, include reported numbers impact economic study,all this of purposes the For expenditures. indirect and direct the from from household result expenditures that for goods Impacts and services the as a are result of effects earnings Induced on. so and plants manufacturing architects, hospitals, schools, in services and goods more. and companies other for inputs be then trucking may paper of worth $100 that Furthermore, toolmakers, chemicals, as such industries supplier of variety a from worth inputs require $100 would paper of of production the example, For commodity. of unit a produce to needs Indirect industry an that everything of account take effects impacts. Induced and Indirect as these to refers IMPLAN economy. an in services and goods of consumption and production the impact industries and households in an economy to identify how transactions between interactions the estimates model input/output An industry. of new facilities or even the impact of the expenditures from a firm or construction the in investment or industry specific a in employment as such stimulus, specific a of effects the identify to used be can that activity economic of model input/output basic a provides IMPLAN Household SpendingfromEarningsof Direct &IndirectExpenditures INDUCED Purchases fromLocalSuppliers INDIRECT

& Expenditures for Operations Investment inConstruction DIRECT These IMPLAN models estimate the resources required to produce given quantities of different kinds of output. In other words, what TYPES OF IMPACT amount of concrete and other supplies does it take to produce There are two types of economic Impacts when considering the $1million worth of new roads? For these new roads to have a net development of the Pike2Bike trail: 1) Construction Impacts and impact on the economy, we have to assume that the businesses 2) Operations Impacts. Construction impacts occur during the providing those goods and services are at capacity and cannot construction phase, while operational impacts result annually from produce them without additional workers and resources. If there is visitors and as part of the ongoing operation of the trail. slack capacity, then the $1 million helps to retain existing jobs. The ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL input-output model is therefore more like an accounting tool that CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS describes the allocation of resource requirements, but it does not tell A two-year timeframe was allotted in this model for the construction us if they are new resources or substitutions. phase and it assumes that there would be no ongoing operations during the construction phases. Under each scenario, it is assumed For the purpose of this economic impact study, specific models for that all construction at a given level of investment is completed Bedford and Fulton County were used. This model reports impacts to within the 24-month (2-year) time frame. This model deviates from Bedford and Fulton Counties only and does not consider impacts to the original master plan as it does not consider a phased approach Pennsylvania, the United States or the greater global economy. For to construction. As long as the project is close to the cost projected a local model, like the county models here, there is a multiplier effect for construction, the following are the estimated impacts (resource which increases the impact on the economy and a local capture allocation) for the entire life of the construction despite the actual effect which limits that impact. As money and purchases circulate length of time the construction phase lasts. A longer construction through the economy, moving from one business to another and one phase would potentially increase costs and reduce the available individual to another, the economic benefits are shared – this is the funding for higher-quality trail amenities— amenities that would multiplier effect. No local economy produces every good or service, ultimately enhance the visitor’s experience. Construction impacts so the local capture effect counters the multiplier effect because only should not be viewed as an annual impact but rather an overall that portion of the goods or services that are produced locally can impact for the construction period in each development scenario. be recirculated to benefit the local economy. When there are gaps in local production, you will have a small local capture effect, which will OPERATIONS IMPACTS reduce the benefits to the local economy. Operations impacts are associated with activities that support the visitor experience and spending. The model accounts for three types of visitor spending: 1) Retail sales on soft goods, 2) Retail spending on hard goods, and 3) Spending for overnight accommodations. It is important to note that visitors may also spend on other items not

25 26 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL and that could increase the economic impact. and thatcould increasetheeconomicimpact. year-round users of types more for allow could uses of Separation riding). horse allow for “lane” a (e.g. create or trail the space of parts on by only horses or 31st) March through 1st December only is It possible to sports. separate uses of the trail by either time (e.g. allow horses snow other and sports, dog riding, horseback include could users Winter year. the throughout expanded be could cycle Pike2Bike trail could the be designed to attract users year-round, then the visitation If months. colder during sales in decline a see may businesses users, summer attractiveto mostly be to designed is trail cycle and planning for year-round economic activity. If the Pike2Bike The types of users are also important when considering the business Pike2Bike trailplanningphases. the during considered be should impact economic the to influences These others. than more spend will groups some and others, than desirable more it find will groups some marketed, and designed is trail Pike2Bike the how on Depending route. nearby a from detour a taking cyclists of group a than patterns spending different have may with traveling are they not animals such as dogs or horses. A planned tour bus or church group or whether and children), small with (especially family a as traveling are they not or whether area, the in attractions other visiting are they not or whether trail, the Pike2Bike along allowed uses trail the on depend will use trail to directly related purchases needs, basic Beyond needs. travel human basic other and gasoline, drinks, food, require will visitors Most factors. of What visitors buy when they are in the area will depend on a variety the as actual impactsarelikelytobewell above thesenumbers. “conservative,” considered are estimates these Therefore exists. currently not do that businesses on spending attractions or area other the at in spending as such model this in for accounted information could be invaluable during the next master planning planning master next phase. the during invaluable this be and could preferences information specific their express to user-type each for opportunity an provided survey Survey.The Resident and User the of summary full the in found be can be trail Pike2Bike the in to interested projected type user each of preferences the on Information demographics- user potentially having a deleterious other effect on the from overall economic impact. visitation decrease may vehicles may be incompatible with other users and the presence of motorized users These vehicles. motorized by use trail Pike2Bike for allowing with concern expressed respondents survey that noted be should it future, the in change to were that if However, vehicles. motorized for allow not does deed special land current the time, requires this At consideration. however, vehicles, motorized by trail the of Use number was rounded down to $13. number was roundeddownto$13. the spending, visitor of potential economic the over-estimating than spending related to trail use. In the interest of under-estimating rather on studies other several with consistent are numbers These years. 5 every repeated been has survey visitor.This per $13.26 at goods soft on spending user for number similar Another a reported Study, Impact $13. to down Economic and User rounded 2012 Park TrailCounty Rail Heritage the study, was number the potential, the over-estimating than rather under-estimating of interest the In use. trail to related spending on severalstudies other waswith consistent number This trail. the to transportation and food/beverage on just Trail Scenic visit Miami per Little $13.54 Ohio’s averageof an spend goods. The Rails to Trails Conservancy (RTC) reported that visitors of soft other and gas snacks, drinks, food, on day per $13 about spend to estimated are visitors all scenarios, development the of each In RETAIL SPENDING Because the retail environment in Bedford and Fulton Counties is limited and because the Pike2Bike trail has not yet been developed, it is reasonable to assume that a lower percentage of users would require hard goods purchases associated with trail use than at the Heritage Rail Trail’s report of 89%. A very conservative adjustment for this study is that only about 10% of visitors would require hard goods when visiting the Pike2Bike trail. This means that if 100,000 people visit annually, only about 10,000 people will purchase hard ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL goods. Calculations of hard goods using this methodology provide an estimate, but actual spending could vary greatly. The reality for The Heritage Rail Trail study also indicated that spending on hard Pike2Bike could be that 89% of people spend an average of $40 per goods is estimated to be about $356.59 per visitor with approximately visitor. A ratio of 10% of people spending $359 per person is generally 89% of their visitors engaged in hard goods spending associated with equivalent to 89% of people spending $40 per person. Therefore, trail use. In the Heritage Rail Trail study, hard goods were defined the potential hard goods spending estimates are considered to be as bike accessories, auto-accessories, running, walking or hiking modest and could possibly exceed the estimates presented in this shoes, or clothing. However, for the purposes of understanding study. the economic impact of the proposed Pike2Bike trail, the definition of hard goods must be expanded. The IMPLAN software would OVERNIGHT ACCOMMODATIONS consider hard goods to be anything sold in a retail environment that Overnight spending includes lodging at hotels, motels, bed and was not soft goods, food or gas. Examples include but are not limited to: breakfasts, hostels, or any other licensed establishment. Using the same source for the soft goods and hard goods spending, the Heritage { Sunglasses Rail Trail Studies (2007 and 2012), approximately 5.7% of visitors to the { Souvenirs trail are estimated to require overnight accommodations. Overnight { Automobile repair parts (tires, windshield wipers) visitors are estimated to spend approximately $93 per visitor on { Toiletries (including diapers or soap) overnight accommodations. Because tourism in Pennsylvania (and { Books (including magazines, maps and tour guides) in the Alleghenies) has been increasing and because of Pike2Bike’s { Entertainment (such as toys, swimming supplies, sports balls) proximity to surrounding attractions, the 5.7% estimate for overnight { Cameras, video recorders (including cell phones chargers) visitors appears very conservative and was adopted for this study. { Outdoor cooking equipment or supplies { Emergency care supplies

27 28 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL were thencombinedtocreatetheoverall economicimpact. outputs two County.These Bedford for output the an and County Fulton to allotted for output an be produce then would wouldIMPLAN model. County Bedford spending) visitor retail projected $100 fictional the (from spending visitors potential of $80 remaining the how that $20 would move through the Fulton County economy. Then on only based output an provides and $20 that of impact economic the calculates then IMPLAN model. entered IMPLAN County Fulton the was into $20 then $100, was spending visitor retail projected model County total Fulton the if example, For the County. Bedford to assigned to was 80% and input an as visitor assigned potential the was of spending 20% only of estimate an goods County, soft Fulton and in hard both on opportunities spending limited With in eachcounty. spending, were separated and tailored to best represent the situation Pike2Bike trail. The inputs to the model, construction the costs and visitor of impact economic overall the increase could county either in overall economic impact for each scenario. Additional improvements an calculate to combined then were outputs the and separately run economic separate model was designed for Fulton County.a Those models were this and County Bedford for for designed was model selected One study. impact was independently Counties and Fulton Bedford to impacts potential the isolating model IMPLAN An IMPACTS BETWEENCOUNTIES SEPARATION OF accordingly. Pike2Bike the trail as a single attraction and make spending and visitation see decisions to likely are Visitors County investment. Fulton this and regarding Bedford between distinction clear a make not likely will visitors Moreover, artificial. somewhat are counties) both in lies which Tunnelrepair Hill Ray’s the (like splits the of some and interdependent are economies local the because County Fulton in drawing a hard line between impacts in Bedford County and impacts below by county in a single summary table. Caution should be used in reported numbers impacts the splits play.table and a C, Appendix In based on the contractor selected and where the employees live, work degree lesser or greater a to residents County Bedford and County Fulton by realized be will investment construction that from economic impact The County. Bedford to allocated was 15% and County Fulton to allocated was 85% county- each in located trail proposed of construction investment inputs was based on the proportion of the is trail The physically located county.in both Bedford and Fulton by Counties. The allocation separated also were impacts Construction County. Fulton to visitors overnight additional attract could accommodations However, it should be noted that bed and breakfast or other overnight County.Fulton to 2% and County Bedford to allocated was spending overnight 98% stakeholders, to intuitive seemed it because and split this Using County. Fulton in work 2% and County Bedford in work the total hotel employees in both counties, 98% of all hotel employees county. each Of in industry hotel the in employment the on based overnightis that assumes assumption County.This Bedford model in largely happen would spending the accommodations, hotel For 08. Trail Development Scenarios

SCENARIO 1: SAFETY FIRST In the “Safety First” scenario, the level of investment required to open the trail and make the tunnels safe for broad public use is estimated to be approximately $3.85 million. At this level of investment, it is

anticipated that tunnel improvements can be made safe for users ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL and the trailheads developed to a level that establishes Pike2Bike as an official and publicly- accessible trail. Beyond access, trail surface improvements and tunnel repairs, no additional amenities are assumed under this scenario. Most of the additional landscaping and trail maintenance would be carried out through volunteer support. TUNNEL REPAIR The tunnel repairs represent the single most capital-intensive part of the total investment to develop the Pike2Bike trail. The tunnels, their history, and the unique experience of travelling through them are the focal point of this entire project. If the tunnels were not repaired and repurposed as a trail and/or national historical treasure, they may be left to ruin. As they continue to deteriorate, the costs to repair the tunnel structures in the future will continue to increase thus creating a sense of urgency. Part of the goal of this project is to preserve the two tunnel structures and prevent their continued decay. Several estimates of repair and repurposing costs were submitted for review by the Consulting Team during this economic impact analysis. Based on average hard and soft costs identified in an original master plan developed by Gannett Fleming Engineers adjusted to 2012 dollars and based on unit prices from the 2012 Allegheny Tunnel Rehabilitation, the tunnel repairs alone are projected to be $2.8 million. This estimate includes all the safety repairs and lighting. The tunnel repair would support through direct, indirect and induced impacts 36.3 full-time equivalent jobs for the construction period.

29 30 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Map Rendering:Scenario1 NOTE: Icon placement for visual purposes only. Icons do not reflect final or recommended ammenity location. TRAILHEADS In Scenario 2 and Scenario 3, construction dollars are allotted For the purposes of this economic impact study, trailheads are for amenity improvements to the Pike2Bike trail. The amenities assumed to provide safe access to the Pike2Bike trail bed and tunnels. suggested in those scenarios could be exchanged for, or amended to Like all trails, access is essential. The amenities available at the include, an improved trail surface. It is reasonable to assume that as trailhead could attract visitation and be used for a variety of purposes. improvements are made to the trail surface, a wider variety of users An example is the St. Mark’s trail in Florida that has a playground at will be attracted to visit the Pike2Bike trail. the trailhead. A citizen suggested building a stage to host concerts or other events at the trailhead. Another suggestion was made to VISITORS ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL develop retail or lodging. While it is acknowledged that trailheads All of the economic impact studies reviewed for this study reported can take many forms, in the “Safety First” Scenario, trailhead visitor counts greater than 50,000 annually. All of those trails also construction is only about establishing safe access (potentially with provided a higher degree of amenities and services not currently handicap accessibility). Because the form the trailheads take could reflected in Scenario 1. However, it is also assumed that the tunnel improve visitation, it is assumed that in Scenario 2, trailheads could features alone are a significant draw for visitors. Because the be upgraded to improve the visitor experience. The cost estimate for tunnels will draw visitors on their own merit and given the anecdotal trailhead improvements was $613,750. This budget level assumes information on current visitor levels, it is assumed that simply improved access points in both Fulton County and Bedford County. providing safe access to them could attract an estimated 25,000 Special attention should be given to providing directional signage, visitors annually. lighted parking, restroom facilities, landscaping, handicapped access and/or any other amenities would help to draw visitors and allow for At an estimated rate of $13 per day, these visitors would spend a diversity of uses. $325,000 annually. Of the 25,000 visitors, approximately 2,500 visitors may likely have hard good needs each year, spending about TRAIL RESURFACING $897,500 annually. Overnight visitors would be approximately 1,250 The trail’s surface was expressed as a safety concern and affirmed at a rate of $93 per visitor they would spend $116,250 annually on by the public comments and survey results. The type of materials overnight accommodations. Total spending for 25,000 visitors is used (pavement/mulch/gravel etc.), will determine the degree to expected to be approximately $1,338,750 annually. Annual visitor which the trail can accommodate diverse user types (strollers, spending would support 5.5 full time equivalent positions where wheelchairs, skates, scooters and other types of wheeled vehicles). workers would earn approximately $143,000 in wages. State and Construction estimates developed by Gannett Fleming Engineers Local governments can expect to earn $ 39,000 in tax revenue adjusted to 2012 dollars estimates the resurfacing costs to be annually. $433,325 including drainage inlet improvements. No other formal construction or engineering cost estimates have been developed. Therefore $433,325 was used as the estimated budget for a trail- resurfacing project. 31 32 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL and families. mobile phones and more) are of special interest for day users, youth for stations charging (lighting, energy solar and areas picnic water, as such amenities Added visitors. repeat and new attract to helping user— trail modern the for requirements critical are trailheads the from and to access supported and signage, review maintenance, good that literature idea the the and revealed responses The trails. survey successful of requirement trail fundamental a is Safety fully operational. is trail the year each for annually $370,000 additional an and only Bedford and Fulton Counties is a total $4.8 million during construction for trail Pike2Bike the of impact economic Overall annually. dollars million $1.34 approximately of wouldpotential who havespending a year a visitors 25,000 approximately expect can trail Pike2Bike the investment, completed of level this be At dollars. can million $3.85 trail approximately for the of resurfacing the of and construction trailheads the two tunnels, the to Repair approach. is minimalist scenario a development first the access, and safety on Focusing SUMMARY A MULTI-USER,RECREATIONALTRAIL SCENARIO 2: County commonlyassociated withtrails. site capacity though to plan for and develop new attractions in Fulton be to appear does There benefits. economic significant immediate realize therefore and use trail support immediately to County in Fulton services and facilities base and limited are tax there County’s in Currently residents. Fulton and interest to benefits considerable economic the was of discussion there study the Throughout MUSEUM include softcostssuchaspermittingandinspection. drinking purposes only at an estimated cost of $15,960. This does not for stations pump two and wells two of construction the considers 2 Scenario $508,740. be to estimated is amenities these for cost total plan, master the to conducted web research and had consultations referred with trail experts. The consultants amenities, additional of cost the Toestimate families. including users of variety wider a for rest area facilities, (pavilion), and/or a playground would increase restroom the attraction midway a water, signage, to access benches, park landscaping, directional and fencing as such Amenities Trail TRAIL AMENITIES museum withstaff. Scenario 2 adds trail amenities, access to water and an interpretative $1,020,685 bringing the total investment level to $ 4.87 million dollars. value trail amenities. In total, this scenario would require an additional higher several adds and scenario first improvementsthe the in of all Development scenario 2, “A Multi-User, Recreational Trail,” includes Map Rendering: Scenario 2 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL

NOTE: Icon placement for visual purposes only. Icons do not reflect final or recommended ammenity location. 33 34 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL the existing infrastructure and may further promote synergistic synergistic promote further may and infrastructure existing the of advantage take would location This McConnellsburg. of portion central the in sited be would museum a assumes analysis this trail, Given the existing lack of water, sewer and utility infrastructure on the of intent the with expanded further attracting increasedvisitation. is museum this of role the 3 1.5 persons with limited marketing and promotion duties. In Scenario at estimated is staff initial The museum. the of operations ongoing of constructing the exhibits and/or within the museum, renovating(3) staffing and (2) handling involve artifacts, and would site) (or building investment a securing The (1) general operations. the trail and of marketing management media social activities, volunteer coordination of the for center a as serve to envisioned is museum a 2, Scenario in outlined investment of level the With operated. and A museum can also serve as the hub from which the trail is managed the from separate area Pike2Bike trailexperience. the of history visitors the exploring additional in attract interested could Pike2Bike of history the to highlight Efforts sites. significant historically other and museums visiting There is strong evidence that visitors will travel for historical tourism, planning a$9milliondollarexpansion. currently is annually.It volunteers 150 by supported is and annually visitors 30,000 approximately attracts PA Washington, in Museum TrolleyPennsylvania The trail. the of history the in interested others and families enthusiasts, history as well as users trail attract to help County) (Blair Pennsylvania Hollidaysburg, in Trail Lower the with Museums, similar to Canal Basin Park trail. and Visitors Center associated Pike2Bike the of history and/ the featuring museum center interpretative a or of development the is opportunity potential One is estimated to be $481,000. is estimatedtobe$481,000. at $281,000 for the first two years. Total cost to establish the museum round programming. Renovation and staffing support was estimated year- and space use public to, limited not are but include, that uses plans. The museum could take many forms and have many different for a museum, renovation costs could vary greatly depending on the approximately $200,000. Because a structure has on not been assessed be Based would McConnellsburg in option purchase building a of cost the museum. the around estimated was it realtors local with interviews and input stakeholder and in outcomes economic expect toearn$157,450intax revenue annually. can governments Local and State $575,630. approximately earning spending would support 22 full time equivalent positions with workers visitor from impact Economic annually. $465,000 approximately of spending potential in resulting accommodations overnight require will visitors 5,000 About annually. million $3.59 be to estimated is on soft goods daily or $1.3 million annually. Spending on hard goods $13 spend likely would annually visitors 100,000 that estimated is It developed, multi-usetrail. fully a for visitation annual of estimate mid-level quality a is 100,000 study, this of purposes the For 130,000. and 80,000 between levels visitation annual reported study impact economic this for reviewed trails the of Many annually. users 100,000 at estimated are levels visitation experiences trail similar and amenities investment, of level expected the on Based totals. visitor adding the increase likely trail, would trail Pike2Bike the operate proposed and manage to museum a the constructing and amenities, of surface the Repairing VISITORS SUMMARY Seeking to create a multiple-use, family-friendly trail experience, SCENARIO 3: A WORLD-CLASS TRAIL Scenario 3 – “A World-Class Trail Development Scenario” – projects Scenario 2 builds upon the safety-first development scenario. At an additional increase in total investment levels by $2 million dollars. this level development includes trail amenities, access to water, Additional features assumed in this scenario include a nature reserve, and a museum. Total investment levels would be approximately greater connections to existing trail networks, a third trailhead or $4.87million yielding 100,000 visitors annually. During the 2-year other layout modification, and robust programming and promotional construction phase, the overall economic impact would be $6.1

activities. Formal construction estimates for trail expansion and ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL million. Additionally, 100,000 annual visitors would have a spending greater connectivity were not available and was beyond the scope of potential of $5.36 million dollars creating an economic impact of $1.5 this study. However, in consultation with Fulton and Bedford County million dollars each year the trail is fully operational. planning officials and using the costs estimated in the previous two scenarios, an additional investment of $2 million was considered reasonable. During the update of the master plan, the $2 million dollar budget may be expanded based on actual construction plans or dollars could be diverted to make previously suggested improvements better. Combining this level of investment with the previous 2 scenarios, the total investment for trail development under scenario 3 is $6.87 million.

NATURE RESERVE There is the potential to acquire property currently owned by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission near the proposed trailhead in Fulton County. Stakeholders expressed interest in developing that property as a nature reserve and linking it to the Futon County trailhead. This type of development would further expand the potential user/visitor base and attraction to the eastern trailhead in Fulton County. Stakeholders recommended the addition of a footbridge that would connect Pike2Bike to the proposed nature reserve property. The trail, the two tunnels, a museum and the nature reserve combine to create a higher level trail experience providing the potential for a multi-day, multiple-attraction outdoor and historical experience.

35 36 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Map Rendering:Scenario3 NOTE: Icon placement for visual purposes only. Icons do not reflect final or recommended ammenity location. CONNECTIVITY TO TRAIL SYSTEMS ROBUST MARKETING EFFORT – Analysis into several trail studies suggests that trails that are part of a “A MUSEUM AS ANCHOR” larger trail network attract more visitors. The potential for increasing Considering the level of investment outlined in Scenario 2, this visitors through such connectivity is significant. In 2012, the Great study envisions museum staff managing the trail and museum (and Allegheny Passage reported over 800,000 annual users. Additional potential nature reserve) to include all of the operational functions. existing and new trail linkages can be made to Pike2Bike. The Beyond the basic museum operations and volunteer staff, it is proposed Pike2Bike trail is surrounded by a robust trail network to anticipated that at least 2 additional FTEs would be necessary to include the Great Allegheny Passage and the “Route S” trail. There support and manage a robust national marketing program. They ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL was consensus among stakeholders that it is feasible that Route S, would also serve as coordinators (points of contact) for the actual the closest trail to the Pike2Bike trailhead, could be connected to the events. Employees would manage a webpage to include a calendar Pike2Bike trail allowing for great trail network access. Moreover, re- of events and the ability to make donations and plan/schedule events. routing Route-S may actually make the ride less taxing on cyclists Staff would be responsible for external communication to potential that currently use that route. The popular C&O Canal Towpath and visitors (answering general inquiries, and responding to concerns or the Western Maryland Rail Trail are located within the region. complaints). Staff would also manage the trail finances including any Additionally, a new, 10-mile trail is currently under construction in additional fundraising and would coordinate with both Counties for northern Bedford County (Huntingdon & Broad Top Rail-Trail), and its any necessary support. southern trailhead would be only minutes away from the Pike2Bike. The 2-mile Bedford Heritage Trail, linking the Omni Bedford Springs Resort to downtown Bedford, is tentatively scheduled for construction in 2014. These assets could combine to help the region become recognized as a trail mecca for millions of residents in the Pike2Bike trail market area—including Pittsburgh and Northeast (DC-Philadelphia-Baltimore) Metropolis. Pennsylvania has converted approximately The RTC further notes that Pennsylvania has converted approximately 176 rails to trails totaling more than 176 rails to trails totaling more than 1,600 miles, making the 1,600 miles, making the Commonwealth Commonwealth #1 nationally. Sixty-two additional projects are numer one nationally. currently planned, adding another 600 miles. The region’s highway system, Interstates 70, 99, 80, and the Pennsylvania Turnpike, establishes Bedford and Fulton Counties as a drivable, year-round destination for over 65% of the east coast population.

37 38 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL attract 300 to 500 cyclists. attract 300to500cyclists. may events Bicycling families. their and runners including more or people 1,000 as many as attract can event marathon or race 10K stakeholder feedback and independent research, a well-planned trail on based instance, annually.For visitors 50,000 to 25,000 additional an attract can calendar eventsprogram special full a that anticipated is it events regional similar year.on each Based county each in held Festival, Foliage Fall Bedford the as such programming, established tours, bike more other with association in events,scheduled be can trail Pike2Bike the running trail include along Eventsfestivals.harvest and events sledding dog geocaching, may events Special visitors: 57%ofridershadhouseholdincomesover $100,000. these attract to eager so are communities why shows survey The events. Spending related to the 11 events reached over $32.5 million. Bicycle the Tour (now Network) conducted a pilot study of 11 large bicycling rides and Association Directors Tour Bicycle National the economy.”local the boost 2011 there, In be wouldn’t otherwise who people by purchases, these of All supplies. related ride- need and often lodging, and food need riders there, Once communities. host the to people of thousands drawing events, major often are races and rides “organized that noted Walking and Biking for Alliance the A impact. economic with partnership in Cyclists American of league generate the by issued report ultimately and attract visitors can additional promotions special other and shows craft races, Trail PROMOTION ANDEVENTS AND OTHERLAYOUT MODIFICATIONS ADDITIONAL TRAILHEAD of trail development are possible. of traildevelopment arepossible. will additions of attract types additional users. Depending these on funding levels, that many variations though anticipated is It process. planning the in stage this at available not were construction which estimates cost and engineering require will these as such Additions construction allocationrequirements. these All designed to change the layout of the trail and involve similar loop. types of a create and be would they because impact economic similar trail a have possibilities of the acquisition expand the to a or land of reserve additional construction nature the proposed is the category to this footbridge in funds for use Another hard goods. for needs expensive) more likely (and different having all vehicles allow other uses such as horse riding, dog sledding, and recreational may example for trailhead middle a Adding Pike2Bike. access that potential to increase both the number of users and the variety of users access point). Allowing for access for a wider variety and of users has the vans tour large emergency additional an offer would also It vehicles. specialty other RV’s, dogsleds, (horses), owners horse for access provideadditional be could however,it purposes, primary its third This access. the trailhead consider access point is mid-point may not be essential to the operation of the trail or for or to third a planners of trail development encouraged stakeholders Some CONSTRUCTION IMPACTS 225,000 is not unrealistic. Because Scenario 3 represents a high- Unlike previous scenarios, construction impacts were not estimated profile development scenario, it is appropriate to use an optimistic for each improvement in this scenario. Estimating the cost for the estimate for annual visitation. construction of the elements included in this scenario was beyond the scope of this study. However, using the costs estimated in the Based on 225,000 visitors annually, there would be an estimated previous two scenarios and based on planning official’s feedback, spending potential of $2,925,000 annually on soft goods. An an additional investment of $2 million was considered reasonable for estimated 22,500 visitors are likely to have hard good needs each this scenario. This additional funding would include the hiring of the year spending about $8,077,500 annually. Overnight visitors would ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL museum employees for 2 years of operation. potentially spend $1,046,250 annually (12,825 visitors per year and $93 per visitor). Total potential spending for 225,000 visitors During the technical update of the master plan, the $2 million dollar is $12,048,750 annually. Economic impact from operations (on an budget may be expanded based on actual construction plans or dollars annual basis) would support 50.1 FTE jobs with workers earning could be used to enhance previously suggested improvements. (e.g. approximately $1.3 million. State and Local governments can expect improve the trail surface or trailheads). During the construction to earn $354,284 in tax revenue annually. phase, an additional $2 million investment (totaling $6.87 million) would have an economic impact of approximately 8.8 million dollars SUMMARY and promote the employment of a total of 93.7 FTE jobs. Workers Building upon the development previously proposed, a World-Class would earn an estimated $3.7 million in wages and their spending Trail development scenario would provide numerous trail amenities would contribute to $304,424 in state and local tax revenues. along the Pike2Bike Trail along with a central support/administrative system. Features of this trail experience include a nature reserve, VISITORS additional trailhead, connectivity with a broader trail system, full-time In Scenario 3, it is estimated that visitor counts would likely peak at professional staff to market Pike2Bike and host events. The estimated around 225,000. Estimating peak visitation is very difficult. Several investment of $6.87 million could attract up to 225,000 visitors per sources were considered in arriving at the maximum usage numbers. year. Construction of the Pike2Bike at this level would have an overall A previous estimate of maximum annual visitation was reported to economic impact of $8.8 million dollars over an estimated 2-year be 250,000 for the proposed Pike2Bike trail. Statistical forecasting construction phase. Visitors would have a total spending potential of based on the entire market region suggests visitor levels could be over $12 million dollars annually, a portion of which is captured by much higher. The consulting team elected to first take an average the local economy and results in an economic impact of $3.3 million of peak user counts from the trail studies referenced for this report. dollars for each year the trail is fully operational. The average peak user count was approximately 180,000 users. By combining these three pieces of information and considering the capacity of Bedford and Fulton Counties, a peak user count of 39 40 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Fulton CountyVisitor Spending Bedford CountyVisitor Spending IMPLAN all for 100% sectors forbothBedfordCountyandFulton(Leakage). below was LPP the spending, visitor from impacts operational For Counties. Fulton and Bedford by captured is be can LPP construction from impacts the the of 100% phase, that 100%--implying construction the during that revealed analysis Further activity. spending of type on based outcomes in difference Purchasing Percentage (LPP) is a tool that can be used to uncover the In an IMPLAN model, the Capture Potential is measured by the Local LOCAL PURCHASINGPERCENTAGES CAPTURE POTENTIAL: Retail Sales-SoftGoods Hotels /B&B IMPLAN Sector Retail Sales-SoftGoods Hotels /B&B IMPLAN Sector Retail Sales-HardGoods Retail Sales-HardGoods ecnae(atr)Leakage Percentage (Capture) Leakage Percentage (Capture) Local Purchase Local Purchase 9 71% 29% 41% 59% 1 89% 11% 61% 39% 69% 75% 31% 25% PURCHASING PERCENTAGE UNDERSTANDING LOCAL economy. the of wealth overall the to make stores the contribution real the is revenue ofthebusinesstocreatevalue added.Thevalue added the and time management labor, uses marketing store The customer, etc. the product, the serving by value add stores the of inputs, resale the is locations retail from output total the of most While benefits capturedbythelocaleconomy. the increase will it developed, are businesses chain supply more or only captures 11% of economy the total impact. local Thus, if local the production is County, increased Fulton in good) (hard helmet bike a of sale The impact. total the of 69% captures economy local the County,Fulton in good) (soft soda a of sale the example, For helmet. Bedford and Fulton counties; they are not producing the soda or bike providingare store goods sporting and store corner The to service a purchase). to consumers for location convenient a to helmet bike or soda the bringing for it compensate to store goods sporting or store corner the by added mark-up retail the (i.e., retail sales those the of margin be would experience would sectors those impact only direct the purchases, retail are store goods sporting a from helmet the purchase of a soda from a corner store or the purchase of a bike because that consider to important is it LPP, understand better To SUMMARY Realizing maximum economic impact from the development of the Pike2Bike trail requires a multi-layered approach. This economic impact study was able to estimate the impacts to the economy based on current and historical economic activity using the IMPLAN software as well as other historical research and surveys. However, this study cannot predict the economic impact that would occur from the opening of new businesses that are not currently in place. The ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL LPP provides evidence that neither county is currently able to capture all of the benefits associated with annual visitor spending. Through supply chain development, increased retail, and increased overnight accommodations, both counties could, in theory, capture a greater portion of the potential visitor spending.

This analysis suggests that it is likely investment in additional establishments will take place as a result of the development of the Pike2Bike trail. There are already establishments profiting from tours on the trail despite the fact that it is still closed. Individual business owners and potential business owners have expressed serious interest in investing through the User and Resident survey and during the public meetings held in Bedford and Fulton Counties. Current business owners have expressed direct plans to add more overnight accommodations and potential business owners left their contact information and asked to be notified when they can begin investing in new establishments related to the Pike2Bike trail. Depending on the nature of these establishments and their individual business structures, there is opportunity in both Fulton County and Bedford County to increase the share of economic impact captured from visitor spending.

41 42 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Investment On RETURN 09. could perform tasks to generate funding for the ongoing staff maintenance 3, Scenario and 2 Scenario in especially between However, scenarios. significantly vary could maintenance and operations for will be required to keep the trail open and attract visitors. Actual costs maintenance and operations regular years, two the after However, years). two be to (assumed phase construction the of life the during of the Pike2Bike trail development scenarios include operational costs Additional considerations in determining ROI are operational costs. All The amountoftimerequiredtobecomefullyoperational couldvary. However, ROI calculation assumes the Pike2Bike is fully operational. visitation, the less time it takes to recoup the initial investment amount. in increase subsequent and amount investment initial the low larger The subsequent and amount amount. investment initial the recoup to takes it longer investmentthe visitation, initial the smaller The year withtheadditionofannualoperationslaborandtaxincome. the subsequent Years equals the cumulative return from the previous returns 100 percent of the construction labor and tax income. Each of Levels the of each of 2 Year income. tax and labor construction the of percent 50 returns Levels the of each of 1 Year visitation. of level the greater the investment initial of level the greater correlated-the are visitation of level the and investment of level the also that was assumed It income. labor using are calculation capita levels per three a on the based of each in investments initial the of amounts dollar The phase. construction two-year a assumes levels these Each of scenarios. development three the on based are calculations (ROI) Investment On Return The asset. civic new this construct to needed investment public the on return the project a to methodology develop to asked was team consulting the study, this of part As and support of the Pike2Bike trail. For example, museum entrance fees, event registration fees, the rental of space inside the museum, COMPARISON TRAILS other partnerships, dedicated fundraising events, and grant writing The time to reach maximum levels of visitation can vary considerably are all sources of income that are not projected as part of this study. from trail to trail. To better understand the length of time required to Nevertheless, the 2006 Gannett Fleming master plan included costs reach maximum visitation for Pike2Bike, two comparison trails were for the operations of 1.5 staff members at approximately $82,000 per used: Northern Central Rail Trail (NCRT) in Maryland and the St. year. For the purposes of this study, the operational costs from the Marks trail in Florida. These trails were chosen given their detailed master plan will be considered reasonable and will be applied only to documentation of visitation over time and the additions that were ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Scenario 2 and Scenario 3. made to the trail systems. NCRT reached higher levels of visitation in its ninth year of operation, while the St. Marks Trail required 17 years of operation to reach its highest visitor levels. Scenario 1: Safety First The amount of investment equals $3.9 million. With annual visitation This may in part be due to some unique aspects of the NCRT. Opened of 25,000 persons in Scenario 1 the ROI could be expected in Year 11. in 1984, in its first year of operation the NCRT trail had 10,000 visitors. By its ninth year of operation the trail reported 450,000 visitors. NCRT extends 20 miles through Maryland, stretching from Ashland Scenario 2: A Multi-User, Recreational Trail The amount of investment equals $4.9 million. With annual visitation Road in the Hunt Valley area to the state line. The trail is 10 feet wide of 100,000 persons in Scenario 2 the ROI could be expected in Year 8. with a stone dust surface. The trail activities include: hiking, jogging, bicycle riding and horseback riding. The trail also provides access for fishing and tubing along the Gunpowder Creek. The NCRT continues Scenario 3: A World-Class Trail The amount of investment equals $6.9 million. With annual visitation another 20 miles into Pennsylvania as the York County Heritage Trail, of 225,000 persons in Scenario 3 the ROI could be expected in Year 6. ending in the city of York, PA. The trail surface changes somewhat in Pennsylvania. The rails are still in place and the trail occasionally crosses the tracks. The trail in Pennsylvania features a rail tunnel and historic Hanover Junction. There are eight major parking lots along the Maryland portion of the trail and many small lots as well. In addition, the NCRT has a dedicated running group called the NCR Trail Snails. The Trail Snails are a Baltimore-based Running Club dedicated to promoting fitness and friendship through group runs, group racing, and social events.

43 44 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL destination alongthe“BigBendScenicByway.” a is and corridor Loop” Sea the to City “Capital 120-mile developing, the of section completed a Trailis State Tallahassee-St.Marks The learn to chance the Park. State Historical Apalachee de Marcos San of history the about and seafood with entertainment, users and trail greets fishing Marks restaurants, St. of City the trail, the of terminus southern the At Forest. National Apalachicola the Trailsin main the At Hills/TwilightMunson the south. to Bike access Mountain is there trailhead, continues and 98 U.S. at Trail the Trail, joins Scenic which National Florida the of portion a use can Hikers trail. unpaved adjacent an on available is riding Horseback skating. and of greenways a and the first to be paved for running, walking, bicycling as designated is system Florida’s in rail-trail first the Trail.was and Recreation It National System Trails and Greenways Florida’s of part officially is trail This Marks. St. of City coastal the to Florida years in operation. St. Marks Trail is 20.5 miles 17 after visitors 220,000 connecting reached trail The Tallahassee,visitors. 170,000 reached trail the operation, in years 7 After 1985. in Trailopened Marks St. the shorterterm. economic impact from construction would be immediately realized in the Nevertheless, potential. full its realize to longer much take could with Likewise, years. trail Pike2Bike proposed the support, 10 investmentand lowerlevelsof than less in study impact in economic estimated this numbers the exceed could visitation promotion, and support of mix and type right the Given developed. officially been has it before even has currently it support of level the considering of experience each could unprecedented In trail spikes in Pike2Bike users features. in a the very trail of short scenarios, period of and time, development especially unpredictability amenities the the the to highlight responses They user widely. maximum their varied reach to visitation took trails two these time of length The 10. CONCLUSION

In an effort to inform the decision-making process, three scenarios were constructed to serve as “visions” for the potential development and use of the proposed Pike2Bike trail. In Scenario 1, trail development takes on a minimalist approach targeting a limited range of users. In Scenario 2, trail development leads to a well maintained, amenity filled trail, designed to enhance the user experience for encourage a wide range of visitors. In Scenario 3, the trail becomes a multi- attraction experience with upgraded amenities, a nature reserve and ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL an enhanced layout (such as an additional trailhead or a footbridge). These three levels of development are distinct in their ability to attract users and in the types of users they will attract. Nevertheless, this economic impact study concludes that at any level of development, Bedford and Fulton County residents will both realize an economic benefit from the development of the Pike2Bike trail.

The economic impact numbers are the direct output of inputs to the IMPLAN model based on estimated construction spending and visitor spending. However, the potential economic impacts that could not be entered into a computer software program are still relevant to the effective overall economic impact of the proposed Pike2Bike trail. These potential impacts should not be overlooked and include:

{ Visitor spending at other attractions in the area { Farmers and agricultural workers forming profitable partnerships { New business investment, formulation, development, and profitability { Increased health and wellness among local residents that choose to bike and did not bike before

45 46 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL among local residents and potential visitors. among localresidentsandpotentialvisitors. evident is form, some in trail, this of development the for demand The developed. be not should trail that suggested have any if few heard, been have opinions different many While trail. the for vision the shape to helping and comments, providing meetings, attending an has trail study,this of course the engaged, fully remained has community the Pike2Bike the above, extraordinary listed amount of community support and enthusiasm. During impacts the Beyond ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL

47 48 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL Rails-to-Trails Conservancy, 2012. Consulting, June1994. of Indiana–PurdueIndianapolis,December2003 California, 2001 Making Trails Count in Illinois in Count Trails Making Trails, of Plan Benefit Social Master and Trail Economic The Recreational National of River Values Ana Property Santa Upon Trail Burke-Gilman the of Effect Trail, The Rail Central Northern the of Impacts Economic of Analysis Study Benefits Trail County in Miami-Dade Greenways from Evidence Values: Property and Choices Public United the in Trails 36 on Tunnels 78 of Study A Trails: On Tunnels References A APpendix AECOM, January2011. 2003. Dangermond Group,December2004. Adjacent and Nearby Properties and Upon the Property Crime Rate Rate Crime Property the Upon and Properties Nearby and Adjacent Indianapolis States in the Vicinity of the Trail, the of Vicinity the in Ris o ris osrac peae fr ain County, Marion for prepared Conservancy Trails to Rails , , Center for Urban Policy and the Environment, University SeattleEngineeringDepartment,1986. , Trails for Illinois in partnership with the - Ludlam Trail Case Study, TrailCase Ludlam - Gary Sjoquist, February February Sjoquist, Gary , The The , PKF PKF Authority, November 2007. economic impact study of the West Orange, Little Econ and Cady Cady Way Trails inOrangeCounty.and Feb2011 Econ Little Orange, West the of study impact Council’s economic Planning Regional Florida Central East the from Results University,February 2012 State Penn with partnership in Resources Natural and Communication, Analysis and Research Division, Minnesota Minnesota Division, 2009. Research Department and of Employment and Economic Development, November Analysis Communication, The Economic Significance and Impact of Pennsylvania’s State State Pennsylvania’s of Impact and Significance Economic The Regions Different in Use Trail Recreational of Impact Economic Demographics, User of Assessment An Trail: Creeper Virginia Economic The and Survey User 2007 Park County Trail Rail Impact, Heritage Trail of Studies Three Trails: Rural Nebraska Applied Economics, December 8, 2004. Applied Economics,December8,2004. and Bergstrom C. John UniversityGill, K. Joshua and Agricultural of Department Georgia, of and Station, Research Forest Southern Parks: An Updated Assessment of 2010 Park Visitor Spending on on Spending Visitor Park 2010 of Assessment Updated An Parks: Minnesota of Economics, and Preferences, Analysis Impact Nebraska atOmaha,October2001. the State and Local Economy Local and State the , Ernesto C. Venegas, Ph.D., Senior Economist, Economist, Senior Ph.D., Venegas, C. Ernesto , Cr R Koh himn ok ony al Trail Rail County York Chairman Knoch R. Carl , J.M. Bowker, USDA Forest Service, Service, Forest USDA Bowker, J.M. , The PA Department of Conservation Conservation of Department PA The , University of of University APpendix B WEB References

Rails to Trails Conservancy www.railstotrails.org

Moiser Twin Tunnels ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL http://www.portlandhikersfieldguide.org/wiki/Mosier_Twin_Tunnels_Hike

Oregon State Parks http://www.oregonstateparks.org/index.cfm?do=parkPage.dsp_parkHistory&parkId=113

Washington State Trails Association http://www.wta.org/go-hiking/seasonal-hikes/hikes/iron-horse-tunnel

The Economic Impact of Trails http://www.americantrails.org/resources/economics/businessoftrails.html

49 50 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL IMPACTS BY COUNTY SEPARATION OF C APpendix OPERATIONS CONSTRUCTION ae 1,6 1328$4,0 4,7 5293$7,3 9,2 11914$1,295,169 $1,199,144 $96,025 $575,630 $532,953 $3,737,055 $42,677 $1,327,531 $2,409,524 $143,907 $2,547,042 $133,238 $660,161 $10,669 $1,886,881 $1,991,528 Wages $601,805 $1,389,723 Wages ae 370$554$934$503$4,6 1740$398$2,4 $354,284 $320,346 $33,938 $304,424 $157,450 $101,778 $142,367 $202,646 $15,083 $208,497 $39,364 $50,612 $35,594 $157,885 $3,770 $165,159 Taxes $46,138 $119,021 Taxes oa 2,6 3078$6,0 1548$,6,5 14441$5,0 30665$3,326,448 $3,066,645 $259,803 $1,484,421 $1,368,953 $8,807,949 $115,468 $2,743,949 $369,605 $6,064,000 $6,108,891 $340,738 $1,364,524 $28,867 $4,744,367 Total $4,752,846 $1,243,905 $3,508,941 Total os05 .155 .32.422.17 20.04 2.13 5.54 5.01 0.53 Jobs Jobs utnBdodTtlFlo efr oa utnBdodTotal Bedford Fulton Total Bedford Fulton Total Bedford Fulton 9311.7 39.3 Scenario 1:SafetyFirst

15. 296. 67.7 65.8 12.9 52.9 51 Scenario 2:Multi-User Scenario 3:World-Class . 5350.1 45.3 4.8 693.7 26 ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT OF THE PROPOSED PIKE2BIKE TRAIL

51 www.FourthEconomy.com | 700 River Avenue, Suite 333 | Pittsburgh, PA 15212 | 412.325.2457 | [email protected]